This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Balestra Capital: "We View Gold As Potentially The Best Currency"
By James Melcher of Balestra Capital:
April was a month of diverging markets in Europe, China and the United States. European policymakers have been under pressure to resolve the deteriorating sovereign debt problems, exemplified by Greece, which spun out of control in recent weeks. The May 9th announcement of a rescue of Greece by the EU, IMF, and ECB has been taken by investors as a resolution of Europe’s problems – probably another triumph of hope over experience. China is addressing its inflation by tightening bank reserve requirement and lending standards, thus slowing growth. Its trade balance turned negative in March and was marginally positive in April. While facing the problems in its major export markets, China also risks deflating its speculative bubble in real estate, commodities, and equities.
The United States, while continuing to show strains from weakened consumer spending and a relatively slow employment recovery, looks more resilient. We question the strength and durability of the U.S. recovery, and are monitoring it closely. But the most important question is whether the global economy can return to growth levels that will enable fiscally challenged countries to service their debts while restraining spending. It appears that every country plans to solve its problems by increasing exports and decreasing imports; something that is obviously not possible.
We view gold as potentially the best currency; an ongoing portfolio theme based on the probability that central bankers in the U.S., Europe and Japan will continue their efforts to stimulate their economies with excessive monetary easing (printing money), while ignoring for the time being the dangerous fiscal ramifications. While deflation is the current problem, these policies increase the risk of a sudden turn to inflation. Without the return of significant global growth it is possible that we get the worst outcome in the form of stagflation. For example, oil and other commodity producers may start to demand higher prices in debasing currencies even though unemployment remains high and wages are stagnant or falling. Our analysis of commodities markets indicates that this effect has already begun. In any event the ongoing debasement of paper currency in the major economies will continue to create distortions in financial markets and asset prices. These factors have already created a topsy?turvy world in which the rich developed countries of the post?war era have become the slow or no growth, problem?ridden debtors, while the smaller developing economies are the ones creating growth and wealth.
- 11182 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -


$700?
Oh. You mean paper gold. I thought you meant the real thing.
Why the name calling? No one called you a name.
Its low self esteem.
Makes him feel big.
Come what may, nobody who owns physical gold is going to be selling it for $1000 oz, let alone $700. I can only presume you don't own any physical, otherwise this would be pretty obvious?
I am sure he could sell his stash now if it is moving south...
his stash is a red kerchief with odds and ends and a long pole
Thanks to ZeroHedge for editing out (i.e. censoring) my initial reply to this post. ExistentialSkeptic replied to my post which was the first one on this page.
My post was factual, stated my opinion, and did not include any vulgarity or other inappropriate content.
So much for ZeroHedge's integrity. Sorry I was not talking your book, Tyler and Marla, I won't dare to contradict you again, especially when you have bet the house on something.
What you disingenuously call "censoring" was in fact the unpleasant but necessary removal of your grossly and purposefully antagonistic and flaming initial posts in this thread. You can be a crybaby all you want about it, but the fact is that you were NOT engaging in honest discussion here, but simply flaming and trolling, using provocatively derogatory names and baiting others right out of the box.
From what I have seen of ZeroHedge in my several months here, the management only take such actions in the most extreme of cases. Let that be lesson to you.
If you get 8% interest for your stash because of fear of sovereign default, they implement austerity measures to save the house, because another bailout would break the camel's back, while prices go down around you, because no one has access to credit anymore and wages go down, will you still pay 1% storage fee for your gold?
Let me see:
8% interest and 2% price deflation = 10% real interest rate
vs.
-1% storage and 2% price deflation = 1% real interest
You choose. But you can bet that this is an asset that will go down in price.
However, if you are right with your Armageddon scenario regarding hyperinflation, do you think you will be able to do anything with your gold? Remember the guy called FDR?
How would being in cash help during hyperinflation?
Balestra Capital: "We View Gold As Potentially The Best Currency"
jaybay: "Only problem is that the people who matter don't"
And do you remember the much more pervasive and historically active villain named inflation/devaluation/hyperinflation?
Just for the record, there was NEVER any "confiscation" of US gold under FDR --- it was a call-in of gold, and a tyrannical statist mandate with which only 1 out of 4 or 5 gold owners complied. The federal government is never going to "confiscate" gold in the USA, ever ---- it will almost all end up buried in backyards and woods before they could obtain any significant amount, I guarantee you!
People had some confidence in the fed gov in the 1930s.
Yeah, they were naive idiots back then, weren't they?
Although I wonder how much we have collectively progressed in recognizing the evils of out-of-control centralized government. To judge from the record of the last 80 years, not very much at all.
True dat.
Uhh... When FDR mandated that all safe deposit boxes had to be opened with an IRS officer present (to check for gold), that IS CONFISCATION.
I wish people would quit running interference for FDR. He was a statist.
What the federal government can do is punitively tax all gold sales. Which of course will just drive it deep underground and/or cause a lot of bullion to turn into jewelry and go 'on vacation'.
I believe another solution will be presented before that happens (get ready for the global hard currency).
jay keep opening your mouth , your foot is probably waiting to jump in
Some commentators are talking a euro at par to the dollar. I assure you that would be the end of the union and the beginning of the attack on the dollar that is certain to come.
If you have the emergence of national European currencies as a result of the failure of the union, the mirror image strength of the dollar would instantaneously disappear. Credit Default Swaps would turn its vengeance on the dollar. The Drachma would be incinerated. The Swiss and DM would be the stronger units.
If the EU fails so does the USDX. With no mirror image to hold up the dollar artificially the US dollar will fall faster than Greece’s credit.
sinclair
"jay keep opening your mouth , your foot is probably waiting to jump in....
Some commentators are talking a euro at par to the dollar. I assure you that would be the end of the union and the beginning of the attack on the dollar that is certain to come."
why would a 1$ Euro do that when a 0.6$ Euro didn't (for those with short memories that was only a decade ago)?
From what I have read so far, it seems to me that you might find yourself leading in the "Foot In Mouth Stakes" with only about a furlong to run.
Another thing:
why is it that anyone expressing an opinion contrary to the "mainstream" here (the buriers of precious metals in the woods and potential/actual gun-owners) get jumped on and insulted?
It's obviously much easier on the brain than actual discussion, but if I wanted to convince someone that I'm right I might consider a slightly different approach.
Just my opinion.
If you will read up in this thread to the very top, you will note that it was the troll JayBayBaker who hijacked the thread with his needlessly antagonistic and instigatory posts, not anyone else. And he continued in that vein throughout this thread, with his snarky and shallow, hit-and-run posts that rarely addressed the issues raised in good faith by others.
Blame the one who really caused the problem here, and who has NOT posted in good faith, not those who reacted to his attacks and innuendoes.
well I've read the thread :))
he reckons gold could dump down to $700 - brilliant buying opportunity for those convinced.
While I do not agree with him, and personally believe that gold and especially silver are undervalued at the moment, I still remember January 1981 when gold collapsed down to $525 from $850 along with silver which went from $50 to $30 - in about 30 minutes.
But however strongly I might feel about these things I would at worst ignore him. I would definitely not resort to childish insults that reflect more on the insulter than on the insultee.
You have got to be crazy. All my gold is in my safe in my house, it is up $ 900 per oz., my house is paid for, I do not use credit, I only put cash in the bank to pay bills, the rest I keep in my house, when gold does go down to $ 700 per ounce I will buy 30 more ounces of it.
Lets see, 62% interest, 0 storage cost, people are begging me to buy stuff from them, and yes I remember FDR, he was a fucking crook.
Get yourself a fire blanket for your gold and your cash.
Safes have limits of temperature degree protection. Wrap your stash with fire blankets and then put in the safe. Good for 2000 degrees (f)
http://www.thefirestore.com/store/product.cfm/pid_3031_kovenex_rapid_response_blanket_kitchen_7oz_37_x32_/
So jaybaybaker, you are here out of the goodness of your heart to warn us!
gee thanks fella. My silver has no monetary value until i decide it does. Thats the beauty of the real thing.
Who do you work for , really?
I used to work for NBC, but now I am on Turner.
Thanks for taking time out from your broadcast schedule to try and show us the light.
You must really care.
The difference between FDR's confiscation, and any attempt now? People were hard core patriotic, flag waving, "for the good of the country" types then. Now? Not quite. An attempt to confiscate PM's would simply drive the economy underground like never before. Ask any ZH'er her who lives in a rural area. There is more and more and more cash/barter/swap business going on today than you'd ever believe. There is very little I need (as opposed to want), that I couldn't buy with metal, even today.
BTW: The Greeks have beem bartering for long time and the underground economy is huge. They do not trust government spending their taxes on buying votes.
Most Greeks own more than one house paid off and they also have farmland which is not being cultivated now but can be. They are not broke at all and they are also charitable and hospitable. They are self sufficient. No one starved during the German occupation in WWII and they also fed the Germans and the Italians.
It is the government of Greece that is corrupt and broke, not the people. Those who demonstrate are the anarchists and the unions who want to strengthen their position and keep sucking on government's tits.
Think about this; more than 65% of Greeks still want Greece to default. They want to be free and be left alone.
Metaxa v. Brandy
Feta v. Brie
Kalamata olives v. canned olives
EVOOL v. Canola
Home made bread v. Wonder
Fruit that have taste and aroma v. Truck rippen
Fresh flowers that actually do smell.
Beaches to die for
Walking on mountains full of oregano or through lemon and orange groves which tantalize your olfactory sensors
Pure wine from grapes v. Wine from dandelions
fresh octopus on coals v. frozen pre-battered and fried
Scooters v. Harleys
Classical music on a Santorini cafe overlooking the caldera v. Watching American idol
Women that feel you v. Women that check your P&L statement
Men who are caring sensitive and understanding, wear clogs and pink shirts and are not gay and treat women with respect.
These people deserve their land and all its beauty on it.
Think of Zorba.
Yes! Many call them lazy. But it is just the perception of the non-Greeks.
What are they missing? Gold, stocks, bonds?
Dance my friends dance. Break those plates. Have courage.
Break those chains. Fight for your freedom.
Storage costs?
the ammo can was like 8 bucks on sale
WTF is he talking about?
he is reading off a cheat sheet delivered each morning ... 1% storage is on line 6 . so he just regregatrates it
Yes, "regregatrates", exactly.
Yes, "regregatrates", exactly.
:)))
jaybay,
thanks for your concern about the posters here. You must be a really nice guy to try and helppeople here by posting so much.
Are you a teacher or a fireman? People in those professions care about others, that's why i asked.
ROFL!
Such sly absurdist humor --- I love it!
Yes, that's my job, to entertain and help.
+1230+++
Today's word is denial children.Can you say denial?I knew you could.
I have said this before but....
EPIC CURRENCY FAIL IMMINENT!!
Pull up a one year daily on /YG and another on SPY and then you can tell me where the lemmings are.
Your not sweating bullets are you? Do you think calling delivery on your paper Gold may become a new paradox?
Insert evil laughter
Ah, I get it! It's the use of those clever "contrarian indicators," where you pretend that it's Opposite Day, and because a lot of people believe something, the opposite must be true!
Ah, yes...The 'Costanza' axiom.
The real issue is it really isn't "a lot of people" that are interested in gold yet. Wait until there are! That is when the price will take off. First in gold, then in silver.
The meme for gold is just starting now that it has hit and remained over it's old high of $1030 for 6 months.
http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Zeroes/Father_Coughlin.html
In Shrine of the Silver Dollar (1940), Spivak said Coughlin "cynically used the prestige of a priest and the heart-tug of Christian charity as a cloak for a fast deal." Spivak showed that Coughlin was playing the stock market while denouncing this on air as "shooting craps with other people's money." Coughlin, secretly one of the America's largest silver owners, urged his followers to lobby for silver as the money standard. Coughlin's "monetary formsare of great help to the Rockefeller interests, [Henry] Ford and [William Randolph] Hearst" (Spivak, New Masses, Feb.5, 1935).Thanks to ZeroHedge for editing out (i.e. censoring) my initial reply to this post. ExistentialSkeptic replied to my post which was the first one on this page.
My post was factual, stated my opinion, and did not include any vulgarity or other inappropriate content.
So much for ZeroHedge's integrity. Sorry I was not talking your book, Tyler and Marla, I won't dare to contradict you again, especially when you have bet the house on something.
Go short then and let's see if you are right.
+100. Talk's pretty cheap. If you're that confident JayBayBaker, you should be massively short right now.
Actually JayBay, here's how you can show us all how confident you are.
Open interest on December GLD 80 puts is 4681, bid/ask is .22/.33. So for around 30K you can pick up what from your perspective must be a rock-solid paycheck any time between now and the end of the year, AND prove to all the goldbugs that you really believe what you say. Open interest is so low that your trade will be obvious to everyone - can't lose, can you?
Parabolic blow-off, like in December?
"Parabolic"? "Blow-off"?
And yet here we are again, and higher, five short months later?
You blinkered paperbugs with your terminal short-term-itis crack me up! You not only can't see the forest for the trees, you not only deny the existence of the trees, you deny the POSSIBILITY of the existence of the trees! Epic stupidity! I hope one day historians have a field day with such insanity!
On behalf of all those befuddled and amused future historians, I thank you!
http://tinyurl.com/2vykwsu
17% for ten years
a parabolic blow off lol
jay has not a pot to pizz in
anyone with that has any wealth to preserve has gold
those with nothing but a lap top , and hubris talk down gold, and have the insight of the diaper gang putting zit cream on a puzz filled face l
Yes but did you notice that his was the first comment on this thread, yet another "gold" thread here at ZH? I've been seeing what appears to be a trend of gold-thread-hijacks extremely early in any thread at ZH about gold. This one is a perfect example. And the net result is that, rather than even talk about the article or its content, we are arguing with just another radical fiat bug.
Does anyone besides me find that interesting?
Indeed!
There is little doubt in my mind that there is an organized, internet-wide campaign to troll forums such as this one and attempt to counteract, interfere, divert or confuse ANY talk about gold, fiat currency, financial collapse or fundamental political resistance or reform. I have seen the exact same phenonmenon in EVERY online forum in which I have participated over the last three years. To dismiss it as all just a coincidence, or the work of scattered individuals, is beyond naive --- the methods, the language, and the selective nature of the targeted attacks are virtually identical in every case.
Nadler x 100, master bates, harry and more. Your spot on .
Newbegold and American patriot at Marketwatch
Nadler was also "RStones199" in the Kitco forum, trolling incessantly and attacking his "radical goldbug extremists" with such heated and violent rage that it was positively creepy to behold ---- until he was banned, by his own company's forum moderators! Now that was poetic justice!
Unfortunately you're right. Actually people look for orientation and they get stupid paper bugs distraction.
deleted
For posterity, and not a mere sideshow:
http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2010/01/15/sunstein
I said something similar in a post about Peter Schiff. The Champions of Gold are immediately being bombarded by counter "operatives" whose interest is apparently to distract from the reality that fiat currency is no match for gold.
those are fighting words in this hood - how soon people forget the fall I mean autumn of 2008 when gold plunged admidst the panic - but perhaps it's different this time (it actually may be)
Wait did gold go up or down when the dow plunged 1000 points on may 6th... dont remember...
It went up then, then the dow went back up and gold went up, and then the Euro continued to dive but the stocks went down and gold stayed up. And as of now it is right in the middle of its three day average.
I wasn't really asking, just pointing out that just because the stock market crashes doesn't mean gold would too.
You did ask, but whatever then.
didn't mean to ruffle your feathers.
I junked you because If there is a "real stock market crash" gold will be of uber-value. It could retest the last level of $1145; the price that the IMF sole some tonnes of gold, sure. But even if it all falls through the floor ie housing, retail, employment, inflation, how could people not want gold. The currentseas are backed by faith. People have realised that faith in material status does not bring happiness alone. Gone are days of prosperity. Growth has stagnated. But what is mony JayBaybay?
"how could people not want gold":
Well, I guess they would have a lot of other problems at that point. Remember what happened to gold last time in the 1930ss? Uncle Sam wanted it to secure the national interest.
If there is a serious move to gold as a currency, all Uncle Sam's of the world will want to have it.
But I am sure that they will make an exception especially for Mr Lennon Hendrix. You'll be the only one who can keep it.
The gold bugs do not realize that they really don't want their scenario to work out, because they are only .1% in the world. The other 99.9% of the world will have no qualms taking it from those who have bet against them and were then proved right.
But don't worry, in that case you will get a fair price for it, somewhere between $600 and $800.
What happened in the 30s was that anyone with sense held onto their gold and it appreciated during the deflationary great depression. The government didn't go house to house searching for coins.
From about 30 then to over 1200 today...and you think it's a bad bet.
Yes, goldbugs may have to hide their gold for a little while, until an increasingly authoritarian federal government finally collapses under its own weight.
In the meantime, you paperbugs will hardly have SQUAT left of your savings and your wealth, after the fiat currency inflates and devalues.
Really, for God's sake, learn a little history! You paperbugs are SO ignorant and SO one-dimensional!
Plus Dude, even if the douche is right: If his scenario is correct, and a fair price was back down to $800...... Things will be so fucking bad that we'll be partying our asses off and spitting feathers to get that $800. It'll be 800 more than that fuckstick has.
My grand father lived through two currency collapses in Europe. If it wasn't for his British sovereign gold coins stash, our dad wouldn't have been able to send me and my sis to college.
No, your grandfather was an evil and unpatriotic "hoarder", don't you know? He should never have been allowed to own gold in the first place, and should have turned it in to the government for a pittance if he did, instead of selfishly and illegally hoarding it for himself. Why, he was in fact an economic terrorist!
I do not of course believe that, but that is what we are moving toward in the USA I fear.
I applaud your grandfather for his wisdom and foresight.
"Remember what happened to gold last time in the 1930ss? Uncle Sam wanted it to secure the national interest."
That is MY point, and THE POINT is that it will be worth something, this in a time when many things now lack worth. Sure it is the one eyed King of the blind, wealth is somewhat of a loudacrous notion (ownership of physical things other than self is egotistic) but we inherited this culture and there is no changing it suddenly. Do I wish humanity still functioned as tribes and that I could be in a larger universe; one where I was swimming and fishing and hunting and gathering and wouldn't have a war but every 20 years. This is not the case. I am I and we are we. This is the situation! So what happens? Well people most assuredly will have trouble if they spend all their time hunting gold hoarders. That gig will not last. If an ultimate collapse happens as you say, people will be too hungary to think about trying to figure the one house in a thousand that has gold. And how many people who have PMs will defend it as wealth? This would be horrific for any group attemting to confiscate. But they will not try this time. UImagine FEMA walking from house to house asking for gold. They will be met with people thinking the real scam is gun confiscation. Besides, how would the government fund it? With their imaginary paper scam? At this point, government has failed, and they can not and will not get more gold. They do not deserve it anyway, they gave it all up.
After the fascist governments fail we will use gold and silver as our currentseas once more, like we have for thousands of years, except from 1971 until now, we did not use it then.
And why would the government want it so bad if they are going to value it at $700?!
You are most likely Government Operated or plain moronic, and I will not stand for your scare tactics.
You think people will act like zombies going after gold, when it is valued at what number again? Dude you are a schill, a con, or confused. If I was you I would go do your homework.
I'm all tucked in for bed. Please tell me a bedtime story featuring the gold bugs vs the IMF SDR saga.
Hurry, or you might lose my attention span by page 2.
I put it out there again - if you're so sure that gold's going back to 800, why not make some easy coin, and prove to everyone here that you put your money where your mouth is. Pick up some of those December GLD 80's. Even if it does a parabolic blow-off (I understood you to be saying its already gone parabolic, but whatever) surely it can't sustain that to December?
"Well, I guess they would have a lot of other problems at that point. Remember what happened to gold last time in the 1930ss? Uncle Sam wanted it to secure the national interest.
If there is a serious move to gold as a currency, all Uncle Sam's of the world will want to have it."
Your paranoia of gold confiscation, the same thing every idiot paper bug says, is reason enough to believe we live in a feudalistic society.
Oh no don't own gold masta will take it from you then you will be up a creek! You should do as masta says or you'll get a beat'n!
Or maybe you can take control over your own life and stop giving two shits about what some asshole thinks about what you should or shouldn't do with you money or how you should live your life and do business.
This argument is just laughable. Don't do something that doesn't harm anyone because someone will spank your ass for doing it, grow a pair.
Here here!
The spinelessness and moral abdication of the typical modern American never ceases to amaze me.
For more examples of the same, please refer to the drivel of Leo Kovilakis herein.
The extent of your douchness is causing vinegar to leak from my keyboard.
Good one! Hilarious!
This JayGayBanger is causing mine to ooze bankster smegma --- the horror, the horror!
I'm sorry.. but that's just plain stupid talk. The FED's won't want my Gold... they will want my 401K.. which I have diligently added to for 25 years, and which I can't cash out unless I LEAVE my job (I checked). My 401K will be converted to Gov't crap IOU's long before there is another call to turn in Gold...
I do wonder if they will tax the bejesus out of all things gold though. Thereby criminalizing gold holders through the tax code.
I have frequently wondered about that very scenario for years myself.
In fact, I expect it at some point. I just hope that by then, the whole system will be so overburdened by debt, inflation and unsustainable spending on entitlements and our vast overseas empire and militaristic foreign policy, that it all comes crashing down in short order, and such taxes are made moot in the general upheaval to follow.
Wow, nice scenario. Bejesus ...
The benefit of holding gold for 20 years:
1. Buying it at $250 and selling it at $250
2. Feeling like the smartest kid on the block for 20 years
3. Talk garbage throughout while feeling completely sane
That's what I call a great deal!
You really, really are little more than a blathering pus-filled douchebag, are you aware of that?
There is nothing more pathetic than somebody who gets their jollies antagonizing others in online forums by mindlessly parroting garbage expressly designed to insult and infuriate the general sentiments expressed and opinions held in that forum.
I don't troll pro-Federal Reserve blogs, spreading my well-founded and justified hatred of their criminal activities there, nor do I seek out forums dedicated to the joys of cooking and eating fish simply because I hate fish, and wish to mock and deride all those who feel otherwise.
So why do you do what you are demonstrably doing here right now -- trolling, flaming, call it what you will? What is your purpose here, and just what is your goal?
... that is my ggoal! or is it ggold? ...
To find out, watch me weeknights at 11:35 ET on TBS, as early as November 2010!
I have no desire to indulge you in any of your stupid troll games, and would rather drink bleach than see you, whoever you are, on television.
I hope you are proud of having hijacked and ruined an entire thread here today, asshole.
"1. Buying it at $250 and selling it at $250"
Where is all this deflation? Even if, lets pretend, gold doesn't lose its value. If gold lost that much in terms of dollar devaluation everything else would as well relatively speaking.
"2. Feeling like the smartest kid on the block for 20 years"
Or if you kept it you would be feeling pretty smart for almost 100 years, what is your point exactly? But hey if you think so I can wright some IOU's for you for your labor. How about I give 1 trillion "dollars" of promisary notes for you to dig oh say 1 ounce of gold out of the ground? Sound like a deal to you?
"3. Talk garbage throughout while feeling completely sane."
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Right cause telling people rectangular pieces of paper are worth their time invested is fucking sane. Did you just walk out of a fucking mental institution?
That will just create a black market in gold.
Jay you can't have it both ways: either the price of gold is going to move down sharply or the government wants it so badly it will attempt to confiscate it from holders.
It can't be the case that the government is desperate for gold, demands it's forfeiture AND the price plummets.
There's nothing wrong with trying to argue a case against gold but you might want to go back to the drawing board on that one.
Just a quick demonstration (inspired by the 1933 movie by Oliver Stone called "FDR"):
Gold sells for $1,300.
Government says it needs it to defend currency (aka national interest).
Says gold has been driven up by evil speculators and profiteers.
Government demands all gold for the "fair" price: $700 (i.e. price of production plus 15% "patriotism premium").
All gold goes to government after fighting and winning "war on illegal gold" domestically.
After having "exchanged" all gold, government says that "due to changed circumstances and to international position", gold is now worth $2,000.
Done. (audience is clapping) Thanks!
And the mindlessly conformist sheep like you would be the ones to gladly hand their gold over to the tyrannical and statist government, while others with more backbone and intelligence will hold onto theirs until the storm passes and the authoritarians fall from power. THAT is the usual scenario.
He is the kind of idiot that would willing walk into an oven if the government told him he had to. Should we bother with him anymore?
Give me a break, the government can't even pull off cash-for-clunkers.
JayJayBaker is thinking rationally. Gold is not a panacea. In fact, at the levels of social unrest one would see with a complete Fiat Money System meltdown... the value of gold goes to zero. It actually goes negative. Only the ability to project force will matter. The rumor that you have gold will just make you a target for roving Rogue Cop Militias.
The idea that everything unravels... and Captain Quant then buys a loaf of bread on the street with a gold coin is an Adolescent Apocalypse Fantasy. Gasoline or antibiotics will be worth more that an inert albatross like gold or silver.
And in a medium meltdown Congress will pass laws to crack down on evil "gold speculators". Since only 0.1% own gold... populist that.
Basically buying gold is a bet on a Goldilocks Fiat Meltdown... not to hot, not too cold... but just exactly right. Maybe a 50% decline in USD max. Hardly the best bet out there.
I strongly disagree.
I don't know where you get this idea (except maybe from the hysterical fearmongering of Bernanke, Geithner, et al) that in the event of a currency crisis or devaluation, civilization is going to completely collapse and turn into a Mad Max, post-apocalyptic nightmare with roaming cannibalistic zombie hordes. In fact, many hyperinflations and economic collapses have happened just in the last 100 years, and yet I curiously recall not a single mention of roaming brain-sucking zombies in any of them.
Your wildly cataclysmic scenario of complete societal collapse is not only historically unfounded, but gives FAR too much credence to the subtle propaganda of the financial and political establishments that without them, and without the current status-quo power structure, it would be "The End Of The World As We Know It".
Really, is THAT what you think bringing fiscal and ethical accountability to government and the markets would entail?
Hmm, my gray cells feel company. Nice! I especially like the "Adolescent Apocalypse Fantasy" part.
MarketWatch:
"But the recent gold rush has been driven more by fear than fundamentals, so anyone investing in the precious metal now could wind up with a portfolio of fool's gold."
In other words, wind up holding the (gold) bag.
That sounds about right.
Yes because market watch opinion is fact...lawllllllllllllllssssss!!!!one1111one!!!
... or will they wind up holding the douche-bag ...
Does that mean they would be cupping your balls in their hands?
I see youu're back. You'll fit in just fine. MAny people here like to discuss gold too.
Dee dee two. Welcome. People here like to talk about gold too. You'll fit in just fine.
Bad enough to have one troll working this thread, but even worse to have a troll echo!
You are a frightened little person whose small mind will leave you in the dustbin of history. I hope your children leave you for a better teacher and role model.
Mr lennon has set an honorable path with the admittance of junking and the reason why. Would that more of us follow that lead. It may lead to the identification of the imbeciles who junk every post no matter quality of content.
Thank you Mr Lennon
they might dump gold to shake out some longs but 700? hmm proposed zero reserve? hmm
deleted
apparently you have never heard of Exeter or his pyramid
Robert Prechter, you sly imp, is that you?
But I thought gold was going down to $600?
Or wait, didn't Jon Nadler say that gold was "overbought" and in "bubble territory" at $500?
Or am I thinking of Andy Smith (now there's a name from the past!), who said gold was "due to crash" at $320?
I'm sorry, I just get my gold permabears all mixed up.
You really have been fighting the trolls tonight. I'll buy you a beer sometime for your work.
It's tiring and usually thankless work, but I appreciate your words of support!
If you ever make it up to Alaska, we can have that beer together.
You know that they're running out of shills when Seeking Alpha have to drag out an "Inspirational poet" to drivel that - in his expert opinion - gold should really be trading at $300....
Didn't have the heart to tell him it costs 3 times that just to dig it out of the ground.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/204889-fool-s-gold-the-next-bubble-to-pop
Judging by the events of Sept 2008, a gold dive is what one would predict. However, watching events in the last 2 weeks has me thinking otherwise. With many North American and European dealers short on silver and gold, the law of supply and demand is likely in the drivers seat. The question of how long the comex can maintain itself is another question entirely. Gold performed quite well during the 1000 point drop in the DOW as well - which has changed my thesis. I think your going to see gold do what the price of oil did in the summer of 2007.
so ignore the article by respected anaylsist
and go right into a scripted anal gold remark
Hah, yeah when the system crashes and gold keeps 7/12's of its value you'll look pretty foolish for having invested in asset classes that loses 9/10's of their value.
This new breed of "semi-intellectual" anti-gold bugs are boring me. You would have thought JPMorgan could have gotten better shills for their money. Hell, I could be a better shill than this half-assed attempt. JPM, hire me!
LOL!
Just think of them as intellectual naked shorts, attempting to drive down the quality of discourse in anti-establishment forums such as this one. But just as in their manipulations of the precious metals prices, they are being increasingly exposed, and are doomed to fail.
Did you get the job?
Just off the printing presses:
JP Morgan: Gold Could Now Face ‘Unlimited’ Demand (JPM, GLD)
BBC: Abu Dhabi Hotel Boasts Gold Vending Machine?
Forbes: Gold Is Hot, Coal Is Cold?
I just love this stuff, such a sure indicator that we are at a top. You could not invent this! Thanks, EscapeKey, for turning JPM into gold bulls!
If I could reach through the internet and punch your smug, arrogant and hopelessly conformist face, don't think for a second that I would not gladly and wholeheartedly do so, troll.
When the DOW was at 6500, gold was at record hghs. Good luck with your gold selloff theory.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GLD&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=b&c=dia
How DARE you demolish our latest pet troll's simplistic theory so devastatingly!
Now he might flee back to troll school, and come back with some actual logical arguments!
Or he will just come back and tell us "the government can confiscate gold!" So you know you wanted want to own anything of value that someone or the government would want to take from you, might as well end it now before the tanks come (channeling mako), or how about we're going through deflation and the numbers are improving!(can you guess that last idiotic tid bit?)
Since the govt wants your liberty too he already gave it to them preemtively. The devil wanted his soul too...same result.
You seem like a nice fella.
Is this your first post here? Very insightful.
But you may find some posters here have views different from your own. Don't worry, they are civil, as long as you are civil too.
Welcome to Zero HEdge enjoy your stay. Comment for a 2nd time if you like, if you have any topics that interest you.
You must be sniffing too much of that magic white...
Deacon,
Given the format of this forum, it is impossible to tell just to whom you were responding.
I like to include a quote from the poster I am responding to, using those quotation marks in the tool bar in the top-right of the reply box, to make it clear just whom I am following up on when I make a post that may not fall directly under theirs. You may find that helpful to do as well.
JPM is still shorting silver. I thought they had their tickets pulled? Maybe they subpenaed. All they need to do is get to $20.92.
No we all (US taxpayers) are shorting silver! ... so as a super hedge ... buy it fast than JPM can sell it.
???
JPM has been selling silver since they inherited Bear Sterns.
I understand .. my point is we (US taxpayer) are supporting JPM via FED machinations.
JPM relies on that.
Wrong (sarcasm) because "the danger posed by the deficit ‘is zero’"
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/05/galbraith_the_danger_posed_by.html
Thank goodness. I was getting worried about that, but sounds like we're in the clear.
Perhaps his tenure is in the interests of the too big to fail banks rather than academic freedom
"For example, oil and other commodity producers may start to demand higher prices in debasing currencies even though unemployment remains high and wages are stagnant or falling"
Exactly, and companies will not be able to pass these higher costs along to the broke consumer who is long an Ipad but sans home equity credit. Therefore margin erosion and possibly another round of layoffs. So you will have inflation in raw materials but the Mcmansion will stay 250K underwater. Gold can and will go higher in this scenario simply because people have lost faith in all fiat money, and a Weimar like hyperinflation is not required.
if that happens, then i and many others will stop paying our mortgages...96% of which are owned by fannie
i have equity in my house but if it goes underwater then i stop paying
In general, home prices will continue to go down, especially homes in the 250K-1mil range, as the credit conditions that lead to the parabolic increase in prices no longer exists. Further, anything where the price depended on consumer leverage will continue to go down.
I think that the range in value might depend on area of the country, but I agree.
If you stopped you would join the herd. Millions have stopped paying already, and the trend continues.
I don't know why the hell I keep paying. Guess I will until I can't. Sure are shit don't worry about it anymore though. Kind of liberating.
Nietzsche was right.
Of all of the financial things that warrant worry right now, gold crashing is pretty far down on the list. If you are a trader with someone other than the favored few (GS, JPM, Citi, etc.), then you do need to worry about your gold trades the same way you worry about every single other financial item that is currently being manipulated in some way to your disadvantage.
If you have been invested in gold items (in particular mining company shares) since 2003 or earlier, then you have already endured five or more 30% to 70% corrections (I've lost count), and you have heard every reason under the sun why gold is doomed to crash, and in fact been through five or more crashes, but in the end, it was all just a bunch of noise and prelude to the main show which is just getting underway.
Will gold crash in the near future? Absolutely if a crash means a 30% correction. For the next year or two any and all crashes will be buying opportunities. If you get stressed out by these crashes/corrections, sell until you aren't stressed out. If your trading finger gets itchy, then follow Jim Sinclair and other's advice, and sell 1/3rd into strength (not too hard to identify) and buy back on weakness (also pretty ease to identify on a gold chart). If you use leverage - good luck - you will probably find a way to go broke trading the greatest bull market in history.
Actually, the assumption by 90 to 95% of the investment world that gold is headed towards some pronounced top similar to the early 80's at which point you had better sell or face regret for 20 years, is the key belief that will create vastly more opportunity to profit from gold during the next few years. There will be warning published every single day from here on out in some financial publication or another referencing the 1980s peak and the danger it presents. This guarantees dozens of sharp sell offs. Lots of opportunity for anyone that really understands where gold is heading and why.
nice summary of gold market hitman
Yep, excellent summary. I've been in gold for more than two years and have seen all of the arguments so many times from so many short-lived generations of fiat bugs that I don't even respond to them anymore. The reason I bought gold in the first place are still valid and have been proven to be more valid, not less so.
These damned fiat bugs are like mayflies; they bloom, cause a lot of disturbance, and then go away, only to come back and bloom again...but they never last.
You're exactly correct, SWRichmond, and I have observed the same phenomenon time and time again in many online forums whenever the topic turns to gold, monetary theory and financial collapse --- the paperbugs come out in droves to attack, belittle, distract and divert the topic, often to extreme and hysterical lengths. NOTHING motivates them, it seems, like talk about financial and monetary honesty and independence --- they HATE it,and LOATHE us, for engaging in it. One can only surmise why that might be.
One thing I have learned on the internet, and that is any talk about gold is guaranteed to bring out the paperbugs like flies on shit --- only in this case, the flies bring their own shit with them!
akak a large 10-4 on that
LOL!
Hey, don't get too carried away swatting at 'em. It takes up a lot of space and you have to actually read the posts to see who the troll is if you're new.
Good work, either way.
dont buy gold because
1) they may confiscate it
2) because it is a way to store wealth
3) because you may have to hide it
4) well just because
http://tinyurl.com/2vykwsu
copy and paste to see chart
Dumpster, that chart says it all. Are you sure that chart didn't take some viagra??
Its been quite a ride, glad I stayed on...
+100
i propose we shut the trolls down with a pointer to something like what dumpster just wrote. simple, funny, etc.:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/balestra-capital-we-view-gold-potential...
save this link, and just paste it once for the first appearance of the antagonists (first one to paste gets a prize - gold star, etc.).
and have the discipline to *not* respond any more, unless there is a substantial thought involved.
I hope you're right... I'd buy a shit ton @ $700