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Is The Baltic Dry Dead Cat Bounce Over?
After the longest consecutive decline in the BDIY plunged the Baltic Dry shipping index to record oversold levels, the subsequent 200 point jump was sufficient for many to say that the next dry bulk shipping renaissance has arrived. Alas, the latest inflection point is here, a mere two weeks since the lowest point in years, coming before the index could even reach the psychological barrier of 2,000. The BDIY has now reversed its two weeks of gains, dropping 0.7% from 1,977 yesterday, to 1,963 earlier, with a drop in all three index rates: capesize, panamax and supramax. Is this the beginning of the second leg down in the BDIY?
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If it is negative it is lagging, if it is positive it is leading. This is just an extreme lagging indicator from our power house of growth we are witnessing in front of our eyes.
+10
It is up so far today, but very little. Looks like the climb has decelerated quite a bit, so we could be reaching an inflection point. Game on.
Canadian REIT ad on the left. 8% annual return min 5k w/ "growth potential"
Id be a FOOL to take my money out of my TFSA!!1
LOL
I get an even bigger kick out of the gold ads.
"In gold we trust"
sure, wait til your goobermint confiscates it and outlaws it, making what you put your trust in a crime to possess.
Allow me to quote from the book "Money and Man" written by Elgin Groseclose, on pg. 43 when he refers to the Roman Empire in around 300 a.d.:
Hat tip to you, Jason T. I read the forward to this and recommended it to "dead hobo". He seemed to like it, too. Here is a PDF if anyone is interested:
http://mises.org/books/money.pdf
I'm interested -- thank you.
Nice link. Hate reading books on a screen though... apparently Amazon says its out of print? Might have to look to a public library.
Yes, but then Constantine arrived on the scene and kicked ass.
One should not blithely assume that Empires cannot think up new ways to prolong survival.
What was left of the empire that is, having been balkanized and having lost significant territory since its peak.
Yeah, but they didn't have the 3 stooges of Summers, Geithner and Propeller Head. So its different this time. Like always.
Of interest in the text was the fall of coinage to the status of worthless. Coins had been adulterated so people resorted to using scales to judge silver and gold content. Once the scales themselves had been tampered with, people abandoned coins. The monetary system collapsed and barter was the only way to do trade.
Those who believe that they can survive off their gold once the SHTF need to study history. In the long term gold will protect your wealth. In the short term you may be screwed.
Okay, so at what point in history are we at?
That's not a trend changer.......at this point it only noise.
Don't forget: if BDI up, then things are booming. If down, that's because too many new ships are online. But that's bullish too. :)
Let's see what housing says, north european indices are close to highs (DAX). If it doesn't croke now it won't...
Other tranportation modes like rail, trucking and air frieght seem to be sending the opposite signal. It could be a vessel overcapacity issue distorting BDI's macro implication. Will need to take a look at the BDI to see.
So much negativity! It's just a higher hill to climb.
Are you shorting shippers Tyler? :)
One little glitch doesn't tell a short circuit you know.
No, and one little bear flag doesn't show a recovery to a broken trend either.
anarchist people have been crying the end of the economy for these last 3 years. guess what. It didn't end, it didn't went up in smoke. It's all still there. And people with a live still live the live.
No need to look in every corner for your mad max dream ;)
+1 SD, everyone is planning the end of society. Even in our economic morass, the gubimmint will keep on ruling and we will be cogs in the wheels. It is just a good portion of us will be unemployed cogs.
The Economist has an article this week, they explain the decline, saying that it is due to the fact that many ships have been built, driving cost of transport offered down......
Rail shipments have declined for 2 months in a row as well as trucking tonnage...the Harpex is beginning to flatten out after a long run up...guess the BDI is a decent view of the future?
Restocking is over. The clueless are waiting for demand to come back to pre-2008 levels and are attempting to borrow their way out of insolvency. The realistic know demand is not coming back any time soon and are hoarding cash and cutting expenses. The developing world is the new engine of growth. The new normal, get used to it.
The developing world may be the engine of growth at this point, but they depend on us buying their flimsy crap at Wal-Mart. Once restocking is over, the 3rd world will also have a slow down.
The BDI might just reflect a change in Chinas economy, i.e. less investments, stable exports and consumption. There is German index for container vessels which was going up for many month.
HarpexIndex http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?showData=true&period=4&...
There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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