Baltic Dry Dips Below 2,000

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Fri, 12/17/2010 - 12:48 | 813056 Ray1968
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Hello triple-dip

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:28 | 813211 Brother Revegen...
Brother Revegend Magoun's picture

L type depression... 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:45 | 813268 hugovanderbubble
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Look Tyler and colleagues

Oil getting expensive...higher costs...lower margins...


Credit Agricole CDS.---


Also u can appreciate in US GENERAL MARITIME GMR IS SELL OFF MODE....So attention to Bulkers and tankers, cos real world is not running like the politicians are telling us, NO maritime commerce.Thats the real thing.

MARKET COMMENTARY - Here we go another bank burying not so good news on a quiet day. This time its Credit Agricole and its after the close, so get down to the Pub and have a beer. The company has just announced an end to joint Board representation with Intesa which means that the accounting treatment of their stake will change from being an equity affiliate to an available for sale asset. As such it is no longer treated at cost and gets marked to market as required under the available for sale rule. The negative impact to capital is expected to be €1.25 billion in the fourth quarter of 2010, with an impact on the Tier 1 capital ratio and on the Core Tier 1 capital ratio, as published at 30 September 2010, of -10 basis points and – 38 basis points respectively. The book value will also go down and the hit book value is some 54 cents a share and reduces tangible book value by 5% for 9m 2010 TBVPS. The market has known that the Intesa stake has been under water for a while so this should not come as a surprise. That said, the timing is a bit earlier than flagged given the fact that the agreement was planned to end when by 30th June 2011. Finally, whilst the company has no plans to sell the stake in the short term, having taken the hit it will facilitate the process and in a way is good for Intesa, as once placed it removes one of the remaining overhangs on the stock. So two surprises today, they say things happen in three's, I just wonder who will announce before I go to bed.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 12:50 | 813068 gwar5
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The ships are hitting the fan

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:52 | 814298 bugs_
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Fri, 12/17/2010 - 21:28 | 814581 Lionhead
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I've heard of "dry ships," are there going to be "wet ships" after the rotating member hits the dry ones?

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 12:51 | 813069 firstdivision
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I have been watching that, but the most relevent number would be 1700 as that was support last time.  Then again, what do real numbers mean in a Fed-quidity environment. 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:13 | 813147 A Man without Q...
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I don't think "support" has much meaning in this market, it is not a traded index, rather actual prices paid.  I suppose at a certain level, the ship owners can simply refuse the charter, but the price will still be an average of those that do.  What would be interesting is knowing if the shippers have moved to longer charter contracts, so the BDI is becoming less relevant.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:21 | 813178 DoChenRollingBearing
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I sure wish there was a containerload equivalent to the BDI (the latter measures bulk goods like corn and iron ore).

Not only would that be useful for our business, it might also be useful to better track higher value goods moving around the world in containers. 

And I would bet that containered cargo is worth more in aggregate than bulk dry cargos.

Any expert please comment on my hypothesis!

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:10 | 813370 macholatte
Fri, 12/17/2010 - 12:54 | 813071 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

its been predicting an imminent increase in China interest rates, maybe in January, for 6 weeks now as inflation goes full batshit.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 12:52 | 813075 IQ 145
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 Oh well. It was such a nice dead cat bounce, too.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 12:56 | 813083 RobotTrader
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No doubt, many hedge funds sitting on massive gains on retail and tech stocks will eyeballing the shipping stocks, getting ready to start bottom fishing on some beaten down names.

Money never leaves the casino.  Like a swarm of locusts, they simply swarm over to another craps table.

This one has decent relative strength, prone to making straight up vertical moves:

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:02 | 813113 Variance Doc
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Most of my money has left the casino a long time ago:  physical PMs.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:23 | 813182 DoChenRollingBearing
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Yeah, mine too.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:43 | 813503 DavidRicardo
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You can check out of the casino any time you like, but you can never leave.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:03 | 813117 IQ 145
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 "Money never leaves the casino"  See, that's your problem, right there. Mine did leave the casino, a long time ago.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:53 | 814147 TexDenim
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I like Dryships, DRYS

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 21:44 | 814620 rocker
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There have been many on the 52 Week low list for many weeks. Like GMR, KSP, TRBR, FREE, NNA, and TRMAD. Guess what the D stands for. Catch a falling knife.   Can't stand with you here. Surely more to come ! 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 12:57 | 813090 Gordon Freeman
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Imo get Baltic on yo ass...

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 12:57 | 813095 zurakowg
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I've been watching the BDI for a long time. It integrates a lot of things internationally. International cargo/shipping/trade is fading, regardless of posturing from many quarters to the contrary.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 12:58 | 813097 RobotTrader
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With sentiment on China being so negative heading into this weekend's RRR hike....

Guys sitting on massive gains on some of the IBD Top 100 mo-mo stocks will be looking to take profits and look for other opportunities.

I'm expecting to see this thing bottom out today. 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:54 | 813536 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Required Reserve Ratio?  Fractional reserve lending is circular, and holds no proof of work.  What if the initial loan is demanded by the proprietor?  The whole scheme that is fractional reserve lending is a ponzi.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 16:00 | 813705 cocoablini
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Whos expecting the shipping stocks to bottom today? Remember when the BDI went down like 25 weeks in a row? It just kept plunging and plunging.
Good idea to hit up these stocks when the BDI starts flattening out- but its seems a touch early after last Years shipwreck

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 12:59 | 813099 Milton Waddams
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They say two thousand zero zero party over ... Oops out of time.

We're runnin' outta time.

So tonight we gonna, we gonna ... tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1999.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:03 | 813118 paddy0761
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Stockcharts P&F has a target of 1520. Definitely doable.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:09 | 813131 Chartist
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I think China built a bunch of dry bulk ships in the last few years...This may account for the depressed level of the Baltic index.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:49 | 813524 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:11 | 813140 luigi
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I'm a total amateur in those things, but wouldn't it be reasonable to expect the index to bemore active facing Christmas holydays?

Maybe we should start re-reading those forgotten parts of economic theory relating to "steady state" (if we are lucky...)

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:16 | 813151 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Seasonality isn't important. What's important is how closely the BDY tracks the S&P. Any divergence should be closely watched.

Something's about to snap.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 15:38 | 813643 Haywood Jablowme
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I'm a total amateur in those things, but wouldn't it be reasonable to expect the index to bemore active facing Christmas holydays?

Shipments, primarily what we in the u.s.s.a. would see as imports for the holiday season, are typically shipped in over the summer.  So you'd want to compare the Q2 and Q3 to the same numbers the years prior if you want to get a feel for what retailers are doing.


Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:16 | 813157 Thoreau
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Next stop: the Mariana Trench.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:26 | 813196 bob_dabolina
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That looks like shit.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:26 | 813200 Brother Revegen...
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Tyler, May I ask you to publish BDIY chart covering 2-3 years from now? Thank you.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 15:03 | 813552 Temporalist
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You can go to and select 3yr on the BDIY chart.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:45 | 813271 h0ff13
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The glut of new ships has really reduced the effectiveness of the BDI as a guage of world trade activity.  Anyone interested in this topic can follow the posts of audiophule on the yahoo finance message boards.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:04 | 813341 Clapham Junction
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Ah, so there are more ships skewing the data. Upward or downward?

I'm not very bright, and Bob hasn't commented on this yet, so could you explain further?


Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:19 | 813405 h0ff13
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Dry bulkers have a lifespan and under normal conditions, they are replenished roughly at the rate which keeps to capacity in line with world's dry bulk cargo needs - supply/demand keeping the charter rates in a range that makes building ships profitable.  Well a few years ago, the supply of ships was far below the booming Chinese economy needed to supply them with raw materials.  That forced the day rates into the stratosphere.  With those incredible rates, everyone put in orders to build new ships.  It takes years to build ships and now they are all coming into service here in the recession.  Massive over-supply of ships keeping the BDI supressed and not a very good indicator relative to the past on world shipping demand.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:00 | 813867 bbtrader
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Sounds right, the last I'd read, the drop has been due to a glut of ships.  I also read that COSCO now controls a big part of one of Greece's largest ports.  It is to their benefit that shipping prices stay suppressed.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:00 | 813869 rosiescenario
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...right you are...the BDI is a measure of rates which are driven by supply and demand...demand could be very good, but if supply is even higher, you get a lower BDI reading....

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:23 | 813423 Threeggg
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Are they paper or tungsten ships. (Hauls)?

Just askin..........................

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 13:57 | 813315 Don Birnam
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One of Kudlow's favorite indicators -- or at least used to be, when it provided convenient affirmation for Larry's "green shoots" thesis. The ( formerly green ) Baltic Sea grass shoots are looking rather russet these days.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 15:41 | 813654 traderjoe
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I haven't heard "green shoots" or "mustard seeds" uttered in quite some time...

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 09:59 | 813321 Clapham Junction
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Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:07 | 813357 ironymonger
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VIX has some weird down-spikes in it today. WUWT?

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:11 | 813368 Windemup
Windemup's picture

They can print all the paper they want. It's real goods in physical volume that counts. Labor hours, barrels of Oil, Kilowat hours of electricity, etc. They can't change physics by printing paper. The best they can do, and they are doing it well, is change ownership of the product.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:17 | 813394 oddjob
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BDI<2000 with Copper @ $4+


Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:38 | 813488 mirac
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