This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Yesterday was the inflection, today is the continuation, as the BDIY drops another 7 points to 1,957. Is the dead cat bounce officially over?
- advertisements -
Contact Information:
Tips: tips [ at ] zerohedge.com
General: info [ at ] zerohedge.com
Legal: legal [ at ] zerohedge.com
Advertising: ads [ at ] zerohedge.com
Abuse/Complaints: abuse [ at ] zerohedge.com
Suggested Reading:
Make sure to read our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" Guide
It would be very wise of you to study our disclaimer, our privacy policy and our (non)policy on conflicts / full disclosure. Here's our Cookie Policy.
The only entity that can save us now (spend our way out of debt) is the government aided by Helicopter Ben. Joe Biden must be so proud.
http://www.freedompolitics.com/news/biden-1412-bankrupt-spending.html
He's a politician, which means when he is not kissing babies, he is trying to steal their lolipops. Oviously Dr. No's answer to the above question would have been "No".
Some analysis of "We're going to go bankrupt as a nation."
For Joe's *Handlers* to allow Joe to make that policy statement is very telling. This is a stampede tactic and it also tells us where they are in their monetary plan. QE 2 just around the corner and possibly more. As in Iraq.
This is a FIRE in the crowded theater statement or an "I know how to save little Johnny let me try (again)." There is not time in this statement to question the record, only to dive with Joe or die.
The majority of people on this planet are taken in by this statement. Or have consistently given up their power to the Joes that they are willing to do so as long as they still can have cheese fries.
I am not one of those people and I am doing something about separating my self from folks whose conduct I see as pathogenic to my goals.
I may not be able to do anything and be in balance, so I do not know what will happen, but it is my intention not to be a party to this happy horsecrap.
Agreed.
Ghandi had it right "Be the change you seek" - though most are too lulled by the (supposed) comforts of their oppressors, modern conveniences, and their unquestioned "needs."
I can be the change I seek - no lack of action there... and I'm in the camp of long-term balance. The scales of economy/society will be put into balance one way or another - I suppose that was the intent of the Declaration of Independence.
Like I said on another thread, it is now becoming quite easy to predict their future moves. While the first phase may, **may** have possessed some underlying hint of rational policy, each successive round is becoming increasingly farcical.
We now know conclusively that the entire gamut of stimulus, QE, propaganda and legalized fraud was a huge failure. Since the laws of diminishing returns are now firmly in charge (when were they ever not?), this means any future activity will have -0- likelihood of succeeding. This suggests pending actions will be designed purely as rear-guard covers to protect any last remaining looting.
Until a massive, countervailing force is confronted, represented perhaps by the November elections, the cycle of even more Fed financed, government directed spending will just be magnified by even larger commitments.
Gee, I wonder where the next avenue of USG directed spending will occur? Fuck, this is easy.
It was a resounding success. It was not a creation with longevity in mind. It was simply a vacuum cleaner that will be thrown into the dumpster after the pubes, fuzz, and crumbs have been removed. It is just the last act of the ongoing theft known as the wealth gap.
You just had a situation where the political class has been so captured that businesses were thrown a proposition to bolster their balance sheets on someone else's dime (the taxpayers, at gunpoint). Who wouldn't take us up on our generous "offer"?
Now the victors want to utilize their spoils... and no longer need the long dick of the law to prod us. Controlled demolition + any additional thievery they can muster within controlled demolition.
something along the lines of giving the states 26B ?
hear there was a senate vote for that..
Joe Biden is a politician and has been for a long time, so he really can't be trusted. But one thing he does now and then is say what is really on his mind. That gets him into a lot of trouble. We are going to go bankrupt, and Joe knows it.
QE2 won't be coming as fast as the market has been pricing in for the last couple of weeks. When the Fed doesn't announce it next Tuesday, as most seem to expect, it will send the markets DOWN.
The situation is getting desperate. They WISH they could announce QE2 next week, but its the last bullet they have. QE2 won't have as big of an effect dollar per dollar spent as QE1 and they know it. Just the fact that QE2 is needed is an admission that things are much worse than the public is being told. They need to wave the QE2 bullet around in front of everyones faces a lot longer before they actually load it into the gun. They're hoping they can get some mileage out of just the threat of QE2. Things are really starting to get desperate, as the economic numbers are plummeting. They've kept the headlines more positive for the 99% of the people that don't pay much attention. But as anyone who's looking at the data coming in for the past couple of months can see, the shit's starting to hit the fan again.
+100. Fantastic analysis
We've gotta spend to save!
We've gotta buy one before we can get one free!
We've gotta... DARE TO BE STUPID!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nll8-kSlq6c
Ah, another Weird Al aficianado. Now if someone can morph Biden's face onto Al's in the video...
Saw the BB movie when it was originally released. A reviewer had written "Run, do not walk, to see this movie." Part way through the movie, I realized that said reviewer had either been massively paid off for that review (any street cred would have gone done the tubes after that whopper), or had been quoted entirely out of context, as in the comment was made sarcastically.
the toilet is plugged, the sink is clogged too, hey lets open the faucet.
A plumbers view of this econonuts
Sounds like a mook lookin to get fired.
Bite me remains a characterture of himself. I've loved the rumors that he'd be replaced on the '12 ticket by Mrs. Clinton. Like there is enough money in the DoD budget for food tasters and car-starter-people for that.
- Ned
[ed. spell charawhatever your self]
But... But, I was told it was due to an oversupply of shipping capactiy!
This is all irrelevant to a service economy - Party on! /sarcasm
We may be a service economy, but we rely on the goods from China getting here so we can blow our money on that crap to make us feel relevant.
Yes, the attachment to and identification with "things" that define us.......what a sad, hollow existence when one is ensconced in such a wondrous universe.....to have their attention frayed, non-directional, and dependent on meaningless crap.
I hear you.
For the love of money is the root of all evil.
Our dominant ethnic group loves money so much they have historically named themselves after it. Our society revolves around the stereotypical attributes of that group, neurosis, aggression, self-loathe, and the love of money.
Jewess jeans, they’re skin tight
They’re outta sight
Jewess jeans
She’s got a lifestyle that’s uniquely hers
Europe, Nassau, and wholesale furs
She’s read every
Best-selling book
She’s a gourmet blender cook
She’s got that Jewish look
She shops the sales for designer clothes
She’s got designer nails
And a designer nose.
She’s an American Princess
And a disco queen
She’s the
Jewess
in Jewess Jeans.1
- Lyrics to Gilda Radner “Jewess Jeans” Commercial, Saturday Night Live, February 16, 1980
That saying is wrong in the extreme. Love of money is the root of all virtue. The use of aggressive force is the true root of all evil.
Those who hate money are destroyers. Those who love money are builders, so long as they do not use aggressive force to get it.
That statement is so full of shit...I'm...Acrimonius!!!
tmosley, I love love and i love life and you. I despise money and its illegitemate backers and fondlers. Each paper dollar is a crime in progress in my view and i shut my business because it aint happening no more and i refuse to be part of something immoral .
Me a destroyer? My garden, neighbors, the gal i care for and 300 people who got a free ounce of silver in my town think otherwise.
What i smoke doesnt impair my common sense.
To clarify, paper currency is not money, and never was. Only gold is money (silver too!).
Lol ... something about a needle and a camel's eye (err whatever) comes to mind.
The problem comes when there is nothing on the other side, and the mystics have sacrificed the entirety of this short life in pursuit of the next (though many I am sure only do so to make their lot in this life better).
When telling the rich to sacrifice their hard earned riches, you should pay close attention to who exactly is on the other side of that transaction. If Jesus existed, I would bet a dollar that he never said any such thing as you have there.
"Love" of anything is cause for attachment, and attachment is cause for misery, grasping, anger, sadness......you name the emotion, attachment is at its root.
It is. And when the BDI goes up tomorrow, it's due to the "strong recovery".
Just as the ECRI is a "leading indicator" when it's positive, and "not usable in the current environment" when it's negative.
No, have you not heard the news from Greenspan? The ONLY important leading indicator is the DOW!
Hmmm, instead of today being the x-money honey's anniversary CNBC should rename it "never another down day".
David Kotak has a 12 month 1300 S&P target "completely close the lehaman gap".
Makes me wanna puke. There was a time when Kotok used to speak sense... I don't know WTF happened.
No shit, I actually had a dream I was buying bars of gold last night. A sign perhaps?
manifest that dream....
Make it happen Steve!
You will feel much better.
And if you have kids, so much the better.
I hope you will join us in pulling out $500 from your ATM on Thursday August 12 in protest of mismanagement and corruption in the financial system. We need some people doing that in NYC...
is the messege getting out there? I have made some noises about aug 12 on utube.
Can you tell me why August 12th is the chosen day for the protest? I'm just wondering if it is a random day or has significance.
Before I answer that, Lucky, your avatar is probably the most gorgeous looking female here at ZH.
I chose Thursday August 12 because it would give us a little time to get the word out, and if this works out would put some fear into some of the SOBs running us into the ground on Friday the 13th.
Consider it done, however, I may have issue with the size of the transaction. No, not because I'm broke, simply because my checking account usually has less than $100 in it (since 2008) because all money I earn after tax is kept in paper form!
I'm with you though, consider it done.
Another day of the reality distortion field working at maximum efficiency.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
looks good. going into vertical mode :>
No Wheat to be exported from Russia.
British Free Trade, where no country is to ever be self sufficient is backfiring.
Got Wheat?
I think Eric deCarbonnel exagerates a little, but he can be right about something:
The 2010 Food Crisis IS HERE!
Eric deCarbonnel is right on the mark. I recently loaded up with COW.TO and RJA.
@ Zina
I have not checked DBA (the grains & sugar ETF) today, but it has had a nice run lately.
I have enough food for me and my family to last for 5 years. Yes I have wheat. :)
How do you mill it?
We're at a year, but I'd love to get to five. We got a Family Grain mill to grind with. I use a stand mixer attachment now, but we've got the hand crank, just in case.
Michelle
Was it you that told me to buy wheat about a month ago? I think it was, if so KUDOS! I didn't because I wouldn't know what to do with it :-(
It may have been; there have been rumblings about wheat shortages for a while.
As for what to do with it, you could always get some buckets and just store them. Properly sealed and stored, wheat kernels are good for 20+ years. Plenty of time to explore all the uses!
Nah I dont like wheat anyway.
I'm gluten intolerant, so rice and corn is my grain of choice. And quinoa, if you like seeds.
that's baa-aa-d - Ned
If you keep quoting percentage drops you will never reach zero, TD.
Who says? All it takes is one 100% drop.
last time too the BDI collapsed before the stock markets did....can u tell me what was the difference in time between the 2 collapses
On 2008 the BDI collapsed three months ahead of stocks.
......in 2008 the Fed, Government and Wall St. were caught off guard. This time, they have algos keeping the market afloat....at least for now.
Here goes the BDI... Below 2000 points and sinking...
Nothing on the surprise ADP number?
As a newly restored poster to this site of all sites, I shall move to a persona of no conflict or drama; I will attempt to conform to the style and manner required to maitain the priveledge to post among the giants of the blogosphere.
My sentiments are with the bears of this world; my attempts at sarcasm failed and I will adopt a new style. I no longer will claim CNBC to be "right".
I too am awaiting the ZH perspective on the ADP numbers.
Beats expectations, but what of those expectations? 25K expected and 42K reported? Sounds like bad news but I do understand they didn't report -25K.
I'd hate to be looking for a job right now.
CNBC notes the expected was +40, the reported +42. So as said, anyone looking for a job has a better chance of finding a needle in a haystack or a winning lottery ticket floating down the street.
What I'd like to know, and they never say, is who is it who does all this expecting? Do they have some kind of offical sanction to always be expecting, and almost never right? A PhD perhaps?
http://www.philstockworld.com/wp-content/uploads/Screen%20shot%202010-05-27%20at%2010_13_51%20AM.png
The whole MSM, Wall St, government etc. are so clogged full of shit, they are all "expecting".
expecting? I think they're crowning.
only econ PhDs need apply, and only from the most prestigious of institutions. - Ned
(people who know how to run TurboTax need not apply).
2,000 more than expected is now a "surprise?" You basically still have a snowball's chance in hell of finding a job if you need one.
Sure the ADP report says 42k jobs added, but how many public sector jobs lost? How about the fact that 41k in layoffs were announced according to the Challenger Job-Cut report.
ADP only counts private sector jobs and never government jobs. In any case the USA needs aprox 200,000 new jobs per month just to keep up with population growth which means the 42,000 increase in jobs is really a deficit of aprox 158,000.
But not to worry, Ben Stein says unemployed are just a bunch of Dicks.
http://uspoverty.change.org/blog/view/ben_stein_unemployed_people_are_lazy_unpleasant_and_unable_to_add_and_subtract
http://www.nndb.com/people/371/000022305/
Who is Ben Stein, and why does anyone care what that ugly fucking jooo has to say? Beyond irrelevant ...
I'd rather listen to Greenspan ... NOT!
does it matter what he says? or is it his <fill in the blank here> that makes him say nonsense to you?
Just wonder'in?
- Ned
Big surprise expected 40K, got 42K? Hooray. <sarcasm OFF> So ADP shows what Alcoa layed off last quarter, big deal, and I bet they cant identify where these 'new jobs' came from other than service sector BS.
Forget the BDI, did anyone see PCLN take off:
Hey, homeless people want to vacation too.
Found this interesting piece on Market Oracle:
Economic Recovery for the Few
I'm sure the High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) will need to keep *some* of us alive to be their slaves. I can't see them killing all of us - after all, who will serve them caviar? Robots? It's more fun to have a human slave than to have a robot.
Only until robots are perfected.
It was always designed as an economic recovery for the few, then (the theory goes) scraps fall from their groaningly overloaded tables so the peasants can eat. Does anyone have some different idea of how the system should dispense its largesse?
Reganomics FTW!
open source banking?
now you can understand the meaning being why the pyramid on the back of the dollar bill is cut in two. this is the system, the system is working as it's been designed to do from the beginning.
It's supposed to represent gnosis over the material. But I see your point.
same explanation actually. this is the root of western elitism through the centuries, yes? 'heaven' lords over the 'earth'. and those who have the keys to heaven (whether it be kings, priests, rulers, magicians, etc.) are superior to those who do not possess such knowledge and must be led like a shephard tends his sheep.
the question is: is gnosis a glimpse of heaven or is it a fusion of heaven & earth? are those closer to heaven superior to those who choose to stand firmly on the earth or are they 2 sides of the same coin, with perpetual conflicts arising when each refuse to see the other side as part of themselves?
"It will not come by watching for it. It will not be said, 'Look, here!' or 'Look, there!' Rather, the Father's kingdom is spread out upon the earth, and people don't see it."
- Gospel of Thomas 1123:2
Only $700 bucks to go to get back to where you where in 99.
The increase in profits for Priceline are a demonstration people are broke! People need to travel and the only way they can afford is through extreme discounts which Priceline offers. The steep discounts are also driving down profits in the travel industry. Not good at all unless you were the properly placed investor.
A stock went up? America is saved!
WOW deep discount brown paper bag travel stawk went up? We're SAVED!
Yep Leo, another schtawk that went up on declining volume. Hooray.
PCLN's nicely positioned to benefit from the hotels wanting to dump extra capacity at cheap prices without hurting their brands and consumers trying to get a deal. To the detriment of travel agents, and arguably the hotels themselves.
The real excitement starts when there aren't enough left on staff to run the hotels properly and we can just kick the door in and stay for free! (Best when done in a bankrupted state that can't afford police).
squat the Red Roof Inn. why not? you own it.
...and China comes in to spoil Ben's and Timmay's party.
Are you kidding? The "markets" will take that as more QE coming from China too. DOW to 1,000,000.
Low of the BDI in 2008 was on Dec. 5 and it was at 663.
Long way to fall.
And so little time.
Ergo, harrowing fall still ahead.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Baltic Dry? I had that with My Macaroni and Bragole. Excellent Wine. Rally on.
Is TD on the shitter? It's been a while since his last post, Service sector anyone?
He finally snapped and was last seen riding into the sunset on his unicorn with a satchel full of gold coins.
It was reported by Bloomberg that while riding by he was flipping the bird to all, but CNBC reports that he was waving. Take your pick of which.
Damn funny! +1000
Lulz. Maybe TD is taking solar radiation readings now. Will Skynet survive this solar flare?
Obviously he's processing EUR short orders ;)
Were there any black Hueys spotted near ZH's headquarters?
Anybody in the New Jersey suburbs? Tyler is really Howie Hubler, tried to blow up Morgan Stanley before he started ZH... Ok I'm just guessing.
Black choppers are real. Check Night Stalkers (160th Aviation U.S. Army) link and note how their unit patch resembles CFR logo (My avatar)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/160th_Special_Operations_Aviation_Regiment_(United_States)
their training is more real than most combat. Go little birds. - Ned
Goldman's dumping Prop.... it takes some attention to see what those scum bags are really up to with this ruse.
Does that mean that ZH is no longer blocked at the Squid?
may be he is tired of this rally ...or may be he has got hold of something very very interesting.........
Watching the Money as Debt series on Youtube, especially part 3, I became intrigued by this formula:
P / (P + I)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTv1fo6sKmo&feature=related
This is the fraction of debts that will be paid off, the fraction of government debts that will be paid off, the fraction of houses that will not be forclosed, etc.
Whenever an asset is taken as collateral, it is effectively sucked in in the credit system. It does not make it a bad asset. These are probably still lovely houses and cars, etc, built by honest and hard working people. It only makes it an indebted asset with a banker's ultimate claim on it. Ultimately, this formula, along with the exponentially increasing debt implies that central banks will own all assets pledged as collateral. They are constructed as ultimate rent-seeking vortexes that sucks in all so-called "good assets" into a financial singularity. Unless rates are kept at zero, there is no way to prevent the balance sheet of any central bank to reach infinity.
With debt-based money, the whole so-called free market is fundamentally rigged with a money supply that does not contain enough surplus non-debt-based money to pay off all debts. Hence, if you stand still, you will slide towards the vortex. Inflation-indexed rents is just a way to tilt the plane steeper when workers run faster. If everybody pays all their debt, there will be no money left.
Some people say that defaults is the way out of the crisis. That is only correct as long as there is no corresponding collateral. However, the debt-based system will only reset at a lower level. The built-in systemic direction is up. Greece can take a 90% haircut but it wouldn't help as all money is based on debt, the debt base will continue to build up again later, and we will just have cycles of boom and bust based on exponential and crashing debts. There is no way to create more extreme business cycles than to introduce interest rates in an economy.
As a side note, a society with interest rate will gradually concentrate wealth, as interest rates functions ensures that wealth aggregates in larger chunks. As we all know, so-called "working capital" is synonymous of increasing wealth disparity. Debt-based money hates to be alone.
Taxation will never solve this problem as it just changes the circulation path of the monetary base. Ultimately, it is all sucked into the central rentier's (central bank's) ownership. I'd say the situation is pretty hopeless as long as central banking is maintained as a fundamental system.
This would make a great post!
Money As Debt:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVkFb26u9g8&feature=fvw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sanOXoWl0kc&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTv1fo6sKmo&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qicabStQkc&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kpSbkaD4tM&feature=related
Money As Debt II:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_doYllBk5No&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pp7tiySCyb4&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lG7Jjb0cw9o&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-O_yGEI_0U&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MwHgpFSQMo&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vH1M1QaM6SY&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GH4OElpZtM&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqeTComdm5A&feature=related
what the hell?
These are called "links", they are activated by clicking on them. These particular links take you to some youtube post of a series called "Money as Debt" which you could watch if you want. Nobody has a gun to your head.
Ragnarok
Just add NSFW, everyone will check them out.
Sovereign debt, arguably the biggest category of all, is most-definitely not collateralized, hence the need to resort to "self-help" measures to recover on the debt, e.g., war.
Ned, I beg to differ. The collateral of sovereign debt posted is the sovereignty of the country itself (credit ratings and rate spreads are just proxy measures but doesn't get to the core issue). Global markets are bigger than any sovereign entity. In a no-arbitrage world, spot prices for debts are global, and it is just laughable how sovereigns are trying to create arbitrage by attempting to leverage some local political goodwill (as illustrated when Papandreou failed miserably in March this year begging for lower rates, which was the most sad day for democracy in a very long time). As far as I can foresee these sort of political statements will not influence fixed income desk decisions much.
Case in point: Greece is considering to sell of islands to pay off its debt.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/24/greece-islands-sale-save-eco...
Going to war is a good way to assert sovereignty and put some more sovereign collateral on the table but demilitarized countries better not borrow, especially when they cannot control their own interest rates.
Second case in point, which illustrates how Greece sovereign collateral has been claimed by Germany and other countries that agreed on a bailout:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/07/AR201005...
The fact that Agneta Merkel's words had such an importance is an illustration of how worthless nation borders are becoming as a defense of foreign interference once you have sovereign debts maturing on the horizon. Ever noticed how nation states now have to implement so-called austerity programs imposed on them to get loans, not by their voters?
We can also see how easily China's and the Asian's T-bills will become worthless as they have no international military bases to back their claims.
I think Hungary's sovereignty is also in doubt with recent developments. Besides, this is also true at state v.s. federal level (independence of a state in U.S. is effectively sovereignty). Once Californa and Illinois asks for a bailout, they will loose their sovereignty. The borrower sets the terms. There are many signs that the U.S. government is enroaching on state's and individual's liberties, as is E.U. with privacy laws, etc, but this is a big subject. GM, Chrysler, AIG, Bank of America, etc, they all lost their freedom to creditors. These rules hold at both small and large levels.
Zero Debt, great post, thank you for raising those issues. Much to think about.
...
I believe you are in Europe? If so, please consider withdrawing 500 Euro from your ATM on Thursday August 12. Some of us (who are mad at the financial system and .gov in general) trying to send a signal. If enough of us pull the money we will show there ARE some of us in a vanguard who can ACT! Plus, if those outside the USA do this, you guys will beat us to the punch! Worldwide protest!
There is SOME recovery going on, in particular:
1. People stopped spending so much money
2. .... mostly financed by consumption, so they stopped taking out loans
3. Believe it or not, but some manufacturing is coming back onshore.
4. Railroads are doing much better as consequence of #3.
5. The demand for food has not decreased worldwide, but only keeps increasing and USA exports a lot of food.
People seem to be stuck with the idea that EXISTING sectors must come back to the way they were say in 2004-2007 era for it to be considered a recovery. I've got news for you, won't happen. Economy is adjusting towards different sectors and you'll be disappointed if you're expecting to get exactly what you had before the crash.
And the Gov't and Feral Reserve keep trying to prevent it.
I think your post is right on. It appears the economy will stabilize around these levels. Employment will not get much better but won't get worse. Manufacturing won't explode to the upside but has probably found a base. Etc, etc.
We're stuck, plain and simple. Not much growth but certainly not an economy going into collapse. The BDI is a good example of this. We had massive unsustainable growth brought down by a crisis to over correct. The BDI followed suit. Now, it's just wavering around at these levels. Again, not much growth but also no collapse by a long shot.
The perfect recipe for QE 2.0 that comes with it's own explanation and justification. Ultimately the Ponzi needs to grow or die. Easy enough to convince the average Joe that growth is in their best interest, even when it's not.
Agree. Otherwise known as the New Normal. But the debt that was serviced by the bigger economy still sits around, which are the seeds of collapse of portions of the economy. To avoid their collapse at some point, unsustainable debt must be written off.
I never agreed with the new normal. There's too much structural inefficiency in the economy for it to stay flat. I always cite this example, but Illinois has $5 billion in unpaid bills. In order to eventually pay them, they will have to reduce expenses - thereby laying people off or reducing economic activity. Lower activity means lower tax revenue, and the cycle continues. A post above, IMO, correctly describes the issue of the inevitability of the collapse of the fractional reserve system. Without enough growth to service and roll debts, defaults start, and then cascade the system. The Gov has done nothing but slow down the process, thereby making the eventual reckoning even worse - partly because it will surprise more people.
TJ, I'm with your IL example. Two years of 9%+ stated UE and U-6 at <chuckles here> 16% or so, well, that is so good for gov't "revenues". Here in Taxachusetts (and the DeValuator is doing his best) we have a minor grass-fire of local tax revolt on, of all things, sales tax on excise tax on booze, and on reducing the sales tax.
We'll see, but it is a start at starving the beast (Leviathan was a book I read a bit ago).
Movin' along.
- Ned
If the economy was able to stabilize at this level, then they would contemplate raising rates. There is no way they will stop ZIRP or raise the discount rate, therefore the economy is not stabilizing.
+1936 baby
That thinking is invalid, to create a recovery, rates must be increased to bankrupt everyone who holds weak hands.
Harry,
I agree to some extent but what we have yet to see, and may never see, is a state collapse. No need to mention that 5-10 that apply.
With that said, QE2, along with anything they can think, will be applied to prevent ANY type of asset decline globally.
TD and crew your observations are spot on. Your projections and foresight in terms of the govts willingness is lacking. This is no different than all out global nuclear war prep. They will end game this and apply strategy to prevent them from losing. All costs. You blog daily as if it's there's a shred of hope for a free market.
Ken-I'd say the point exactly:
Anticipation, and the tiny signs:
vallejo, CA bk
http://www.ci.vallejo.ca.us/GovSite/default.asp?serviceID1=712&Frame=L1
Oakland, CA, bk
Harrisburg, PA (fricken capital) bk
shall I go on?
- Ned
(dang, I feel like Rahm doing the "dead", "dead", "dead" thing and cutting off a knuckle)
http://www.aar.org/newsandevents/~/media/aar/railtimeindicators/2010-07-rti.ashx
July 13, 2010 Assoc. of American Railroads rail time statistics would beg to differ with your assertion #4. While there has been some modest recovery from 2008, it is hardly back to where it was, and lately shipping via rail is down. It is more of a statement of a permanently contracted economy.
Baltic Dry indicates shipments of raw materials - what index shows shipping finished goods and their destination?
(tongue firmly in cheek) Try the Apple stock index.
makers of toys for adult tots.
I too would be very interested to know if there is a "Container Index" that is easy to monitor.
Our business (in Peru) buys less-than-containerloads of bearings. Last I asked, our maritime shipping charges have not changed (Asia to Peru).
Look at the Yen rip. Lets see, Japan market down 2%, Finance Minsiter warns on excessive gains and presto the Yen does a full reversal witha 1bps move on the 10yr. BOJ back!?
Is ZH closed for the day or something? We haven't had an update article since 8:30. Maybe they went on vaca............
I think Tyler is busy going long buying Pcln and GS shares . I think he should hire a partner.
I was wondering myself. So I let my wonderfully fertile imagination take over.
The offices were raided at 8:30 AM. Tyler was able to hit the control-alt-delete buttons before being horse collared to the floor and maced by masked jack booted SWAT team members, thus locking down the servers.
Luckily, Marla was out back smoking a cigarette and saw the vans pulling in. She's now hiding in the sub basement under the plastic bottle recycling container, knowing full well that no self respecting "Xe" fascist would ever look there.
The NSA are now running a brute force password decrypt program as we speak and they expect to break in within 2 hours.
Tick Tock, Tick Tock.
An imagination is a terrible thing to waste. :>)
Maybe he's in GS internal meetings concerning the spinoff of the prop desk?
LMAO!!!! She's now hiding in the sub basement under the plastic bottle recycling container, knowing full well that no self respecting "Xe" fascist would ever look there FANTASTIC!
Hahahaha!
Cog Dis is in fine form today!
What about the solar flare particles expected to hit us today? Anybody have any news? So if the 'Net and the Grid go down, what's next. I did hear that we all may get a treat though, we may be able to see the Northern Lights as far south as the Caribbean.
Well, it looks like not only did the NSA brute force decrypt fail to break into the ZH servers but Marla left her hiding place in the subbasement recycling center and overpowered the few remaining Xe guards with a few well placed nut crunchers.
She then called the ZH lawyers, who brought with them money, guns and several more lawyers, whereupon they promptly freed Tyler from the evil clutches of the Ponzi Gestapo just in time for several afternoon updates.
Bravo ZH. We win again.
I have it on good authority (Goldman internal memo) that TD is in transit (think airplane).
Tyler will resume, the vacation gig, once the destination is reached.
Tyler had been busy...
setting up franchises all over the country.
I dunno, but looking at the equities today, I think DOW 11k in the not-too-distant future is a foregone conclusion at this point.
Oil over $80 is troublesome however.
Dow 12,000 is probably more like it.
http://i35.tinypic.com/ztjgnt.jpg
Look at a one year chart of BIDU, that's what this whole thing looks like, it stinks. Even if I was to turn bullish like Leo, I could never buy knowing full well that it's just a matter of time before the FED and/or the bots make a huge error and sets off a chain of events that will lead to a 20%+ super crash. I might add that I would rather play russian roulette with 5 bullet-loaded six-shooter than buy stocks. Once gay-timmy, butthole-ben and greenspan-the-goof understands that this is how their citizens feel, maybe they will let this fucker get back to something resembling true value.
Updated DOW daily chart:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
"Daily returns from hauling 2 million-barrel cargoes of Middle East crude oil to Asia fell 93 percent since Jan. 19 to $6,538, according to the Baltic Exchange in London. That’s less than the $11,601 that Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. estimates is needed to meet crew, repair and other running costs."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-04/frontline-chooses-to-anchor-its...
heheheh
'Go long' John Baldry'
There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
cheap vps | windows vps | forex vps