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Baltic Dry Drops Another 4%, Below 2000, Longest Decline On Record Enters 31st Day

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The Baltic Dry, which contrary to what some may claim, actually is one of the best leading indicators on global trade and thus the health of the economy, continues to plunge, and is now below 2000, hitting fresh 14 month lows, at 1940. It is now at the levels last seen during the March 2009 "generational" low, and just after the Lehman bankruptcy. Yet futures are up as initial claims beat expectations by 6,000 very statistically relevant people.

 

 


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Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:19 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Remember big bad news tiny drop...slightly less than bad news (UE numbers) big rise. Skynet has full control.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:21 | Link to Comment bingaling
bingaling's picture

Rally on Dudes . It doesn't matter that global shipping of goods has dropped off a cliff signifying the death of globablism .

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

Exactly. What is important here is that ship building is booming. More ships in the shipping lanes means lower costs. Now Walmart can ship all of your iPhones to your local Dollar stores for cheap!

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:20 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Who cares?  The employment problem is solved and the bottom for 2010 is in.  Worldwide growth was just revised up - +90% in China and +1% everywhere else.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:38 | Link to Comment bingaling
bingaling's picture

I care because the Baltic Dry Index is one of the few indices which isn't under manipulation by gov't (s) and is a true record of global performance compared to the above lies .

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:55 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Believe his post was sarcasm sir...

+1 about BDIY

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

Groundhog Day the Sequel:

Happy Opposite Day! Again.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:26 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

I'm looking forward to the ECRI being released tomorrow.  -10 should be in the bag.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:31 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Nothing to see here, move along. The can kickers are out in force and the best thing to do is let them exhaust themselves. Then kick them down the road.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:31 | Link to Comment Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Look!  Malibu Stacy has a new hat (from the Simpsons).

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:32 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Anyone have a BDI grab going back beyond 5Y? 

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Wildebeest
Wildebeest's picture

I have 6 years of data. The 6th year doesn't really add that much:

 

http://www.wildebeests.net/baltic-dry-index/

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:34 | Link to Comment Cincitucky
Cincitucky's picture

Its sliding because LeBron hasn't made his decision of whether or not to stay in Cleveland.

Everyone knows sports and the market are linked.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:34 | Link to Comment thislittlepiggy
thislittlepiggy's picture

Surely there is no need for us to be down-hearted by news like this, there must be a way of presenting it in a positive light?

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:35 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Wasn't this posted yesterday?

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:58 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Can you read?

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 11:13 | Link to Comment molecool
molecool's picture

No you are stuck in a repeating time loop - think Groundhog Day.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Zina
Zina's picture

BDI is much more reliable than the manipulated commodities futures market.

Don't care about copper futures, or iron futures, or soybean futures. Those are highly manipulated markets.

BDI is not. It tells what is happening. And what's happening is surely not good.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:37 | Link to Comment Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

TD, a long time back you had a link which showed all the shipping lying idle on a map, I was wondering if we could see that again?

 

Thanks.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

http://www.vesseltracker.com/

Big difference from 2009 and now. Ships are actually all arround the globe now.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:05 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Not quite. Download the Google earth link from Vessel Tracker and check out all the idle ships. I've been pulling this up since Tyler first talked about it last year. Things did improve but are headed back down. Here is the link for the Google Earth Vessel Tracker app.

Not every red mark is a boat with no where to go so don't be surprised if you see a lot of red, particulalry in China. But after you watch it over a few months, you get a feel for what's going on.

http://www.vesseltracker.com/en/Googleearth.html

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Appreciate it SD & CD.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 12:02 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

A duck boat collided with a barge in Philadelphia. Was on their news ticket. Didn't know that!

Those duck boats are the stupidest form of tourist dollar gauging.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:03 | Link to Comment UGrev
Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:37 | Link to Comment primefool
primefool's picture

The BOXi has turned up. The BDI reflects bulk dry goods shipping from poor countries t less poor countries. The BOXi reflects shipments of containers loaded with toys from Less Poor Countries to Pretend Super Countries.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:49 | Link to Comment bingaling
bingaling's picture

http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/2010/07/baltic-dry-index-plunges-but-...

 

Here is a pretty good opinion as to why the boxi is up

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:45 | Link to Comment Dan Duncan
Dan Duncan's picture

"The Baltic Dry, which contrary to what some may claim, actually is one of the best leading indicators on global trade and thus the health of the economy"....

So what was this fantastic leading indicator telling you in the Summer of 2008...right before the shit hit the fan?

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:36 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Well, it went down by half in January of 08.  It jumped back up in summer, before falling off the cliff and losing 96% between late summer and autumn.  Seems fairly accurate, as the bottom fell out late autumn.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Zina
Zina's picture

Baltic Dry Index, June 04, 2008: 11,623 points

Baltic Dry Index, September 04, 2008: 5,874 points

What happened in September/October 2008? I heard "total collapse"?

BDI is better than Paul, the prophet octopus.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:46 | Link to Comment trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

In other news, Obama's lackeys at the NYT floated a new trial balloon this morning. How's a federal bailout of the states sound to you this morning?

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/08/opinion/08edley.html?ref=contributors

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 13:07 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

 This is what Peolsi is supposed to deliver in exchange for her support on the Health Tax.

In other words this is supposed to be her "stick save" for November.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:47 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Tyler, I think you're wrong on the BDI. The reason the BDI is dropping is because of all the new ships being put into service. this was already announced in 2009.

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=65511&Itemid=31

9/18/09 New building cancellations to top 40% of current dry bulk orderbook says National Bank of Greece

But, new building cancellations will reach about 40% of the total orderbook sayd NBG, which means that 100 million dwt will never reach the water. This, coupled with an estimated 70 million dwt of scrapping of older tonnage, could allow for a gradual recovery of dry bulk usage, close to the ten year average of 87% of available hiring days. Should this scenario materialize, dry bulk rates will drop below 2,000 points during 2010 and recover higher than 3,000 points during 2011, which could be deemed as very satisfactory, should one consider the current imbalance in the market.
Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:52 | Link to Comment Paper CRUSHer
Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:55 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

The container shippers have the problem that they don't have enough containers to use anymore.

It's now the first time it happened that you can't keep the empty containers longer then 4 weeks before you pay a fine.

Most container welders are booked till the end of 2011.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Global container shipping firms, which slogged through their worst-ever year in 2009, have seen strong rebound in freight rates over the past year but the surge was largely due to a container box shortage rather than significant recovery in demand."

http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/265645/container-rates-seen-precrisis-leve...

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 11:26 | Link to Comment Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

Cog-DISS,

Yes,i read the article.I think you misunderstood my Dow 10000 comment.I was intentionally trying to put a positive spin on this.To you and I it should be interpreted as "Hang your Dow 10000 hats" aka."Hang 'em High" or alternatively......"Draught of wind blows Dow 10000 hat off the stand into the street and gets flattened by steamroller"....... i think ya get the picture.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Ah, I see said the blind man. Thank you for being gentle while explaining your position.

Sometimes I (and plenty of others) have the tendency to misinterpret a poster's words and react poorly. That's the problem when much of communication is non verbal and this is a text environment. :>)

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 12:37 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

I see no footprints on your rice paper.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

The economy is strong. 

Someone yesterday said that this board was Mammon-centric.

Many here wail and gnash their teeth about the influence of the FIRE sector, politics, and the sad state of the union.   However, few here refuse to participate.   Oh yeah fuck the Fed, and corporations too, and Wall St... get a rope.  Get a life.  You are still participating in the very system you decry?  I still play the pops and drops, I still have a trading account, I still buy T bills.... I'm not a schmuck, I'm not going to take a risk.  Well, screw you you hypocrite. 

You want the power back?  You're gonna have to make some choices, and these cost benefit choices may not weigh in your favor in "their system" of money and weath.

Stop doing business with TBTF, Wall St, and the Treasury.  Close and move your accounts.

Stop paying taxes forward, up your allowances, slow pay, or don't pay and negotiate a settlement.  Stop paying sales taxes by not consuming and buying second hand/barter/tax free.

Stop paying your mortgage if you can, and it is in your best interests.

Stop buying foreign crap whenever and wherever possible.  Buy local.  Buy from butcher shops, and farmers stands... over the internet if you have to. 

TAKE DELIVERY!  Take delivery of your savings, gold silver, currencies....get it in physical, and protect accordingly.  Even a safe deposit box is better than in electronic, get your money out of the system wherever and however possible.

Work strike.  It would not take many to change the course of this nations politics very quickly.  Will you risk your job to take a month vacation, and maybe have to find a new job?  If a larger movement fails to coalesce just max all of your time available for sick/vacation and drag your feet.

STOP PARTICIPATING you fucking fools.

It just astounds me how many here speak from both sides of their mouth.  If you still invest and trade the markets, if you still have funds in TBTF, if you still shop at Walmart/China.....and you cry oh the Fed this and Washington that.... then...

FUCK YOU...you deserve what you get you sad sacks of ignorant dogshit.  You're like beaten spouses coming back for more.  Your eyes are open and still you don't see.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 09:59 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It's already a long time since you got laid not?

 

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Last night, and dirty rotten actually.  We were stuck with the inlaws, in a trailer, for many days and nights....  Ah, sweet release. 

I stand by what I wrote, and if that describes you, then fuck you, and I mean that.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It doesn't describes me but you sounded a bit frustrated in you text :)

stuck with you inlaws... I know what you mean. They freaking hate me and I freaking hate them and still they come by every week.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Frustrated, me?

A better question is why are you not frustrated? 

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I'm European. I was frustrated 4 years ago when all was fine but as we could already see the storm on the horizon.

I got my shit together. Shorted in time, went long in time and made a shitload of money.

Actually now I say: Told you so! NOW BURN!

Protesting now is like trying to do fire prefention when your house is on fire.

It's over. No point of return.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Maybe it's the Texan in me, or the pissed off Cherokee blood, but a choice is coming to either get down or lay down.  Hide if you want, but if your participating then your no better than the crooks, and reciprocity is the sharp end of kharma.  I don't care about a return on my actions, it's the right thing, the just thing; fuck the rest. 

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

Crab Cake

You and a few others on this site are on my heroes list. Short list so far but getting there. So I'm just saying this not as a counterpoint AT ALL. I hate these pigs as much as you and believe me, if I did not have a family to think of, I would do a HELL of a lot more than I can say publicly. The following might sound like a heap of sorry excuses to you, and if so, I welcome your saying so.

But, I do have a family, and we're poor. (Our own fault in fact - we did not take advantage of the long ponzi boom to build wealth. For my part, I was in a relationship that took everything I had, which last from my early 20s to my mid-30s. Was lucky to get out with my clothes, a rented apartment, a job and heaps of debt.)

My little household has almost NO money in a bank. What's in there is because our paycheque HAS TO go thru the banksters. No workplace will cut us personal cheques or cash for pay. So we must have a bank account.

We have a tiny trading account, simply because it earns us more than my wage job did, and we need all we can get. When that changes, it's back to a wage job again - when you speak of foregoing a wage job, please keep in mind that for some of us, we cannot responsibly do that.

We are desperately trying to make up for lost time (I left that relationship in 2001, so it hasn't been long) to afford an isolated property somewhere in the outback, where we can grow things and live 'off grid'. This is not as easy as it sounds when one is poor.

By law in Australia, part of your wage is devoted to a 'superannuation fund' (equivalent to a 401k I think in the US), which is invested in the stock market. Most of us know that there will be little if anything left of it by the time we 'retire'. Most of our population still thinks this theft is a good thing.

We are going to incorporate, when we can, so that we can manage our own 'super'. But it is not an easy thing to do here, not yet. Maybe it'll get easier when a few more funds management companies collapse, as some have.

Wherever, whenever possible, I tell people all I learn. I've had people quit talking to me, tell me (at work when I was there) to quit talking about it, and many think I am a crackpot. But some are listening. I've been asked how to buy bullion by some friends/family, and some actually have done. And some haven't bought but are at least beginning to question the lies. Most people around me are very, very worried.

Again, NOT saying this to dodge well-deserved blame for participating in the corruption. I hate it more than I can tell you, and I agree with your condemnation which makes me look again, at how much we are doing and how much more we could.

But I thought I would just put this out there as well, so that it will be less frustrating for those of you who are taking bigger action, to understand how some of us can still be playing this game. It may be that as we learn, we will see more choices open to us...but for you to know that for many of us, it is a matter of ongoing education as well as financial means.

I love and share your rage. But I say this to you as I often have to say to myself, to stay 'sane': we each have varying powers of resistance. For those with the education, experience, and choices, rebuke is very deserved - but it takes judgement. For some, especially the 'sheep' at the lowest levels, sometimes it takes patience, compassion, and alas time (which we do not really have). And most especially, it takes learning how to communicate with people who are still locked in the grid, worried but have NO IDEA what is going on - who will view us as the enemy at times.

Where we each sit on that scale, and how much of this rebuke we deserve, we each must decide for ourselves.

Thank you for so well expressing the rage I myself feel - toward myself as well.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 12:00 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Renfield,

More than anything else, IMHO Crab Cake is talking about intent, followed up by action wherever possible. So many people look at the list and throw up their hands, either because they never intended to do anything and were looking for the "It's hard" excuse. Or they see it is insurmountable and the air of good intentions slowly seeps away. Nothing is accomplished unless and until there is the desire to accomplish it. It's all about baby steps, not giant leaps.

Thank you for a couple of things. First, for exposing yourself, both the good and bad. That takes great moral courage and I am humbled by yours. And for trying, in whatever way you can, to fight back, in whatever way you can. If everyone were to increase their efforts by just 5%, this would all be over in 30 days.

Thank you again. Bravo! 

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 12:11 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

Thanks CD - that means a lot, coming from one of the best and most active writers on the blog.

It's funny because what Crab Cake expressed is so much how I FEEL. And often very self-divided. I actually teared up reading it. (Which I'm glad of.) Some of you guys on Zero Hedge really are where I want to be.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 12:26 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Don't sell yourself short. There are plenty who are reading your comments and saying to themselves "I would really like to be where Renfield is". 

"It" isn't a destination, it's a journey.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 12:39 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

"First there is a mountain, then there is no mountain, then there is." - Donovan

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Rollerball
Rollerball's picture

Time is a fractal of a fractal of a fractal ........

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 12:41 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Time is an illusion, that you can grow out of and spit out.  Much like fiat currency.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:40 | Link to Comment -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Stop doing business with TBTF, Wall St, and the Treasury.  Close and move your accounts.

Check.  We're completely out of the market.

Stop paying taxes forward, up your allowances, slow pay, or don't pay and negotiate a settlement.  Stop paying sales taxes by not consuming and buying second hand/barter/tax free.

Double check.  Our federal withholding is zero; our consumption is essentials only.

Stop paying your mortgage if you can, and it is in your best interests.

Can't swing this one; definitely not in our best interests.

Stop buying foreign crap whenever and wherever possible.  Buy local.  Buy from butcher shops, and farmers stands... over the internet if you have to.

Pretty much goes along with essential consumption only.

TAKE DELIVERY!

Check.  We're purchasing physical PMs and slowly withdrawing our cash emergency fund.

Work strike.

We've rejected the idea that dual-incomes are necessary.  I'm a happy stay-at-home-mom now. 

It's rather peaceful.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Good on you Michelle!  Now tell your neighbors and family, get them involved, and stand by one another.  We don't need (intentionally redneck)  no government to help our own. 

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:50 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"It's rather peaceful."

If things get really bad, do you have a spare closet I could rent? I prefer a walk in but will settle for a linen closet. At the end of the day, just fold me up and close the door. :>)

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 11:00 | Link to Comment -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

I can reorganize the storeroom and fix a cot for you between the wheat and the beans.  How are your gardening skills? :)

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 11:59 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I have three green thumbs. One on each hand and one mental one, which is where it all starts. :>)

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:10 | Link to Comment proLiberty
proLiberty's picture

Taking possession of any hard asset that was previously kept in fungible form removes wealth from the fiat money system, at least the part that is used to create credit from leverage. Of course, it cannot prevent Helicopter Ben from just clicking his mouse button to create an infinite amount of "liquidity", an imaginary substance that banks launder into spendable money.

As much as I would vote to replace this fraud (the most massive fraud in human history) with an honest, asset-based, system, I can only go so far as to protect my own personal wealth from further deliberate dilution by the parasite we call government.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

Crab Cake,.......all valid points...... though better stated with an unemotional state of mind.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Then you state it with an unemotional state of mind.  Say it over and over again, and ask others to say it.  Asking me to not be pissed off by hypocrites and liars is a bridge too far.  I've had enough, this is war.  I'm going to be drawing up a new "Common Sense" pamphlet and distributing it in my off time and around my neighborhood.  I want to passively and peacefully ram a dagger straight into the corrupt heart of this country.  That's what I want.  Call me crazy but I want legislators that actually represent my needs to action, and an national economic system that benefits the people not bankers.  If people want to get on board, get on board, but if you are just going to mouth at it then I stand by what I said, fuck'em; Benedict Arnold's to a man.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The powers that be have total control as long as we play their game. This includes using they words and terminology and making their problems our problems. I can't tell you how many times I see people posting crap like "our" war or "our" economic collapse/problems or "our" government.

Sorry but all that stopped being "mine" decades ago.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 11:13 | Link to Comment jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

I think he/she has every right to be emotional, and his facts are true and consistent with what needs to happen. If you ask me, people in this country are not emotional enough about what is happening to them.  in 1776, people finally had enough back then of what is happening to us today, and people seem not to care today.  This is why I am moving out of this country in 5-7 yrs tops, too many hippocrites in this country.  They will whine to their neighbors and co-workers everyday, but when you talk to them about starting a plan of attack and protest in the streets, the turn into chicken littles.  If our forefathers had taken this stance, we would all be property of the Queen still.  People in this country need to grow a pair, especially the men, and stand up to what is nothing more than a form of terrorism by our own government, state and federal.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Wildebeest
Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:30 | Link to Comment Wildebeest
Wildebeest's picture

...er, sorry. was meant as a reply to hedgeless_horseman

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:29 | Link to Comment HedgingInfinite...
HedgingInfiniteRiskIsNotPossible's picture

Dammit, I just borrowed money from a loan shark to double down on 3x long calls on 10x derivatives on 2050 pink sheet futures. Should I be worried?

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

does the loan shark sharges you only 10% a week? If so, don't worry you'll be fine :)

Buy a Ipad!

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Rollerball
Rollerball's picture

Depends on the military capability you own.

Thu, 07/08/2010 - 12:24 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

I gotta say. Kudos to the wishful thinkers that the declining BDI has no bearing on the health of the global economy.

It's a canary in the coal mine and CANNOT be discounted. Don't care that there are more ships in the water that dilute the prices.

China's economy is stalling.

Sorry.. this time is no different.

Extend and pretend until the liquidity shows stress which is pretty much now.

Banks that are broke, people that are broke, nations that are broke CANNOT contribute to a recovery. Simply can't.

Thu, 08/19/2010 - 11:21 | Link to Comment herry
herry's picture

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