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Baltic Dry Free Fall Continues: 4%+ Drop For 3rd Consecutive Day, At Lowest Since April 2009
Either someone in China is pumping out 100 capesize ships every single day, and doing their best to push charter rates to just below zero, or, gasp, transpacific trade is really falling off a cliff (i.e., Chinese inventory accumulation has been put on hold). Of course, if it is the second, we will know in February when China reports its January trade surplus (and the US respectively reports its trade deficit). Should the gross imports and exports number plunge, it may confirm that the BDIY which is only mentioned by the MSM when rising, and ignored when plunging, may actually be relevant. And speaking of plunging, today it dropped for the third consecutive day by more than 4%, hitting 1,544, a 4.8% drop overnight, and the lowest number since April 2009.
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transpacific, bitchez.
The domestic transport industry is feeling the pinch with this as well. One of my larger freight companies clients is laying off drivers like made. Pull togehter the gas price increases and you have a supply chain that is slowing down a "boat load".
That's ok, we can make up the differences with new Fed Notes. Break out the helicopter bitch.
blues musicians are the dumbest investors. They're all for Long John Baldry.
The fat finger number was the REAL number. They just broke it up for easy digestion.
Exactly. There is no "fat finger" it is simply someone with deep pockets protecting their assets trading on reality...
Remember the "Boy Who Cried Wolf?" It's sort of like that but with a whole 'nuther diabolical vile twist...
Look here. I am sick and tired of coming on this site and getting this bogus data about unemployment, shipping, bird deaths, MSM cheerleading and the like. What the hell does employment. shipping of products, or Erin's breasts have to do with the REAL econonmy anyway???
The economy is improving, and at a rapid rate. Get it? Now, start reporting good news or shut this goddamned website down
Nuff said
Yeah, 43 million people on foodstamps, 3 years of housing market overhang, 4 trillion of annual borrowing to fund the "improving economy". I get it. There's nothing to see here, move along.
What about Erin's breasts?
Exactly
Dude is gay. Has no interest in breasts.
deception and lies will never work, don´t worry a second round of economic collapse is right around the corner.
beware of the European sovereign debt crisis, not talking the piigs, but belgium an austria. It´s BB now
Don't like comments about "Erin's breasts" go to CNBC and check them out.
What REAL economy ? Last thing I checked that got offshored . If you refer to banksta fraud which now makes up about 50% of the remaining VIRTUAL economy , then I have a Max Keiser quote for you :" You do not need ships to export fraud" . In that sense , the BDY may have lost its meaning as an indicator . BTW , I am a fan of Erin Burnett's boobs
Erin and Becky... thats a lesbo action I would LOVE to see.
You, Sir, are a fucking deluded twat of the first order.
On that accomplishment we commend you.
How about you use your own money and start your own site. Other wise stfu about what someone else does with their time and money. Or do you not believe in freedom of speech, are you a commie?
Shadow inventory: 6.3 MILLION HOMES
14 TRILLION dollar deficit
PM's : 9 year bull market
Rule of law and property rights DESTROYED with 50 AG settlement on mortgage fraud : check
No fundamentals have changed in the last 2 years.
Stop drinking the goddamned koolaid and pull your head out of your ass.
'Nuff said.
You listen mister. You go watch CNBC until your situational awareness has more illusion and less reality. It's good for you. Because we can't solve these problems the wrong way if approach them with the entire truth. We have to do this wrong or NOT AT ALL.
That you Barry?
Ben?
pods
Not sure if serious.
Here, I make a picture for you.
http://i596.photobucket.com/albums/tt45/SH00TTH3H0STAG3/waaaaaa.jpg
Shipping stocks already bottomed 5 months ago, anticipating a turn.
Looks like it peaked in early Novemeber
Interesting chart, Tyler (a.k.a. Robo... a.k.a. Harry...).
The gig is up.
Bermuda Triangle. Oops, wrong ocean. Oh well, so much for that theory.
ships probably ran aground in australia, thinking it was a continuation of the ocean!
This is freakin' unbelievable...and YES...a signal flare as to how incompetent the MSM is...or rather how propaganda the MSM has become.
ATTENTION COMCAST: please, direct your attention to the gaping credibility hole in the side of the sinking ship called The Blow Horn [CNBC].
Great news for manufacturers needing additional inventory warehousing, lower BDI means lower carrying costs :-).
ships probably ran aground in australia, thinking it was a continuation of the ocean!
Supply-side ponzinomics meets gravity.
In 2008, it was the canary in the coal mine. The climb between then and now was floating on a sea of liquidity and bogus demand.
The charade has to end sometime.
I'll repeat my mantra, one more time. When the BDI reaches 3 digits, watch out below. The next great correction is upon us.
And to the articles point, this sudden drop is all because of the Australian situation. The world's largest commodity seller suddenly gets halted by the worst flooding in memory. Their entire-supply chain from extraction to port is underwater in the affected areas. Coal, so critical for the world's steel industry is the worst hit.
Looks like gravity is really really asserting itself.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/05/stairwell-sigtar/
Good point. I'll add that to my list of warning signs. Thanks.
This is somewhat misleading. Nothing proves the drop in the BDY corresponds to a drop in demand. It may well be an increase in supply, i.e. a stronger economy building more ships.
.... " Meanwhile, the Baltic Dry Index has staged yet another downfall, ending yesterday’s session at 3,115 points, losing an additional 173 points, now standing at the lowest level in more than six weeks. The capesize sector posted the biggest losses Monday, with 371 points down at the Capesize Index of the Baltic Exchange. According to the latest statistics from China at the end of last week, the country’s industrial output slowed in May from April reviving concerns that economic growth could be slowing. Separate data last week showed China's imports of industrial commodities fell in May. According to Reuters, consultants MSI estimated average capesize earnings falling to $35,000 a day by August but picking up to $37,000 a day by November. 'MSI expects some gains in Chinese activity toward the end of the year after the current cooling off period and this should support capesize earnings in the latter months of 2010."......
...Or, just maybe, a bunch of capacity coming on-line, projects started before the bottom dropped out of the economy, now sitting there all dressed up with no place to go....The last time this happened in the late 70s/early 80s, many a shipping company went under
300 cape size ships coming online per day?
Pull the other one, prick.
Edit: Damn, Hamy got me again!
Yep HamyWanger, they already shipped so much stuff theyre taking a break to build more ships to meet all the pent up demand. :D
It's Hamy NOT Harry Wanger, but comparing their intellect, roughly on the same level:
No it's caused by "Thinking with portals" finally catching on. Releiving the stress on the shipping industry.
how about all the flood in australia as it relates to a temporary slowdown in loadings? could it be that simple. i know little here mind you.
China is hitting the brakes HARD!
http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com/2011/01/06/chinas-economy-is-h...
German Factory Orders were a strong 5.2%+ that news really lifted Brent Oil which is now trading almost $6 over WTI.
Euro devaluation via continuous PIGS crisis is really working out for Germany....
Not sure the rest of Europe can afford the Oil...lastest UK petrol prices...heading to the moon...http://www.whatgas.com/petrol-prices/unleaded-prices.html
Germany is the one that will rise in Europe, due to the fact theyre the least insane bunch of lunatics.
THE BDI IS CRASHING LIKE A FLOCK OF BIRDS WITHOUT ANY REASON!!
strange. Most be a freek onetime thing that will selfcorrect for sure.
The People are gonna be pissed when they can no longer purchase the cheap chinaware from the mega-corporations that off-shored their jobs in pursuit of higher profitability via slave and child labor. Quid pro quo, bitches.
Happy New Year to all, I hope you all have a good year.
Look at the Bearish Pennant for Silver on the 30 min, setting up for drop to support at 28, possibly 27.25.
I don't have the time or energy to follow up on this, but can anyone determine whether technical analysis has worked during the gold/silver bull market over the past 8-10 years. I strongly suspect that it has not, and gold/silver just powers through all the bearish pennants and other impending signals of doom.
doesn't the australian flooding have soething to do with this? Ports closed etc?
I think so. However, supramax and panamax sub-indices have been on a firm downtrend for like 6 months.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-04/queensland-flooding-to-cut-frei...
Check out the Harpex (finished goods) 5yr chart. You can see where we were vs. where we are. I think it is the best example of how much BS the market is projecting.
http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?showData=true&period=6&...
The BDI is falling because it does not include the FED freighters, shipping fresh printed $ bills all over the world.
ouch
What is happening is that the American consumer, flush with cash from a high-paying job in a booming, robust economy is ordering next day air.
Are you saying gold shipments to China are down?
Now would be a good time to sell some long-dated puts in quality drybulk names, like DSX
And only credible according to ZH when falling…
If the BDI was still driven by supply demand than the facts that would matter would be. 1. Steel mills in China have been closed through December (re-opening in Jan) to meet energy efficiency targets for the end of the most recent 5 yr plan…kills iron ore demand. 2. Supply outlook remains weak driven by significant shipyard deliveries. But supply demand no longer drives the BDI as shippers have become increasingly active in hedging with option contracts on the BDI. They have never been good at predicting it, so all its really giving you is a gauge on their speculation and financial risk.
All the this bad news,DOW to infinity and beyond .................
Did you hear. The dow and reality filed for divorce. Marriage is OVAH!!
Hoarding is a crude term but with potential shortages in foodstuffs, countries with centralized govenments are reluctant to allow grains to leave their shores. An article in the WSJ earlier this week highlighted the fact that the Chinese are paying 10-20% more for cooking oils. The Chinese government cares first and foremost about stability and they will be many pee'oed Chinese people who are paying that much more for their everyday cooking. Conclusion is that it's not just the supply of shipping affect the baltic dry index; countries do not want export grains when concerns are growing about the increasing price of food from within.
Buy the ships bitches...