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Baltic Dry Index Drops 3.3% To 1,840 For 32nd Sequential Decline, Longest Drop In 9 Years

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Don't panic - the fact that capesize operators are on the verge of losing money on charters and facing bankruptcy is irrelevant: China just announced the biggest export balance with the US on record. And that very credible number must surely mean all is good, and trade by Pacific Ocean rail is surging. In the meantime, the BDIY dropped 3.3% to 1840 from 1902, a 32nd sequential decline and a the longest drop in 9 years.

 


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Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:25 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

More Green Shards.

Broke the last three lows.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:29 | Link to Comment megatoxic
megatoxic's picture

Do you mean "Green Sharts?"

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:33 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

:-D

But...but, we've been given multipliers to play with...how can this be?

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:25 | Link to Comment unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

i think the market should go up about 300 pts today on this marvelous news, don't you?

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:30 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Why hold back?

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:51 | Link to Comment Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Here's a great economic forecast with tons of charts from Cotzias Shipping:

http://cotzias.gr/reports/COTZIAS_ECONOMIC_OUTLOOK_2010_06_JUN.pdf

Check out Page 8 - S&P500 vs. Baltic Panamax Index chart

 

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:26 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Every big drop was followed by a massive bull run! So, BUY BUY BUY :)

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:40 | Link to Comment Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

Thank you for some common sense.

Also let's look at the BDI on a longer scale, maybe a 10 yr perspective? I think Tyler is comparing BDI to peak bubble BDI numbers.

Plus soon the BDI will rise as many Apple fans will take delivery of their iPads, and new 4G iPhones. Do you have an >iPhone<?

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:49 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

I hate to tell ya, Scoob, but BDI measures cost of shipping for RAW MATERIALS.  Unless someone has developed a mass teleportation device that I'm unaware of, I don't really see how a collapse in sea trade can have anything but deleterious consequences for the world economy.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:58 | Link to Comment Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

Understood. Retail sales have an impact on BDI if you look up the supply chain.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:56 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Of course, but to what extent?  Companies are not impotent to forecasting demand of their products.  Just because we sell a million ipads today, doesn't mean we'll sell another million tomorrow...  aside from the fact, we're dealing with the aggregate, and not a few "fad" brands.  (and I mean brand, as that is what apple sells).

In other words, this should be telling you, companies are forecasting decreased demand...  retail successes may surprise to the upside on occasion, but are you arguing the rule or the exception?  Further, was the expectation to sell at or near nothing?

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:56 | Link to Comment shiptastic
shiptastic's picture

I'm with you T, but even the ever spun WSJ has an article on the BDI today titled Baltic Dry Index Flashes Trouble, but then spends the rest of the article down playing it's accuracy.  The most important quote comes from a London economist.

"It can be distorted by all sorts of factors specific to the market that have nothing to do with commodities," said Julian Jessop, chief international economist with Capital Economics in London.

Mr. Jessop suspects that some of the decline in the Baltic Dry Index might be due not just to declining demand to ship materials, but rather to rising supply of shipping capacity."

Do we have any way of double checking Mr. Jessop's findings on this shipping supply capactiy claim?


Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:10 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@shiptastic

Jessop sounds the fool.  What difference does it make whether its demand or supply driven?  It's another sign of over-capacity.  Too many hands and not enough work.  Deflation.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:20 | Link to Comment Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

Or, or I say. Why not look at the BDI for what it is, and only for what it is.

An indicator of price for a service at the time an inquiry for the service is made. Not Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators.

Tyler just likes drama-tic charts.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 10:07 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

This logic can be used to invalidate virtually every measurement tool in the arsenal.  You have to utilize the information to extrapolate a hypothesis.  It should nudge you in a particular direction.  At some juncture, you have to take a leap of faith.  (I surmise you already did by disregarding the information).

Think of it like the "god spaces" theory.  While we might not completely eliminate the possibility of god, we can certainly limit the reasonability of belief therein.  In the case of green shoots, by whittling away and utilizing a vast array of similar measurements to the BDI.  Like this: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/baltic-dry-index-drops-33-1840-32nd-seq...

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:25 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Agreed. Overcapacity after a global round of inventory restocking. If anything, BDI is a mother of a leading indicator. Even if finished goods like iPads are being shipped, that's old news already baked into the numbers. What the market is looking for is an indication of what comes next. Lower global raw material imports indicates that manufacturers are anticipating at best a lull, at worst a double dip. BDI is almost back to March 2009 levels when manufacturers were predicting armageddon.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:34 | Link to Comment Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

interpreting the ongoing contraction and ultimate collapse of available credit especially among interbank agencies which is the most significant and troubling indication of the bellwether BDI as "deflation". shortsighted.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:18 | Link to Comment dpr10
dpr10's picture

so all this new capacity came into play in the last 6 months::))

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 12:51 | Link to Comment ZackLo
ZackLo's picture

theoretically couldn't china be loading up on bonds hopeing for deflation to hit and the yeilds go through the roof while slowly ratcheting up there purchasing power of there currency to get more resources to really squeeze us? I mean if they raise it enough couldn't they just cut us off? It would hurt them in the short run but pay off in the long run and they could throw some money at europe to get them buy on there exports?

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 13:14 | Link to Comment Mark Beck
Mark Beck's picture

@shiptastic

Traditionally at this point in the economic cycle, not to say that the cycle is historically normal, the BDI should be a leading indicator for a slow down in commerce.

If you want to watch the system slow down in real-time watch the shipping traffic at the west cost ports of LA and Longbeach, then monitor INTERMODAL cargo train frieght shipping.

Train traffic is peaking so we should see a classic progression of reduction through the system. The real problem with BDI is the rate of decline. Imagine if this same rate was seen for rail shipments. This would signal a huge economic slowdown given ARRA progression and the anticipated momentum of stimulus.

Mark Beck

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 14:10 | Link to Comment poopdeville
poopdeville's picture

I asked this in another BDI story this week.  What exactly does the BDI measure?  It is measured in dollars, but it is an order of magnitude off of Star Bulk carrier's current daily forward freight agreement rates. 

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:51 | Link to Comment jesus_quintana
jesus_quintana's picture

Yeah, raw material and food shipping is like, so 2007. Electrons move much quicker, and they're almost as tasty.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 12:14 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Electrons move much quicker, and they're almost as tasty.

Just tested a 9v battery on my tongue and YEP, electrons are still positively delicious. ;)

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:46 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Funny, it is usually known as the MOST reliable indicator. Why anyone would trust government generated numbers is beyond me, but then- this is Leo. What was I thinking?

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:58 | Link to Comment Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

So what? BDI +(SSEC)SHANGHAI STOCK INDEX CONPOSITE are declining together.

Then again,as commented above:DOUBLE WHAMMY=STOCK RALLY

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:54 | Link to Comment jesus_quintana
jesus_quintana's picture

Ignoring it is a reliable indicator of having your head up your ass.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:56 | Link to Comment demsco
demsco's picture

Let me cherry pick some obscure source to make me feel better about my long solar picks...

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:56 | Link to Comment taraxias
taraxias's picture

I thought you had to answer a basic math skill testing question before you could post on here. How does Leo get around that?

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:01 | Link to Comment johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Just like low volume is not a reliable indicator.

Just like the ECRI is not a reliable indicator.

Just like loan volume is not a reliable indicator.

Just like unemployment is a lagging and unreliable indicator.

Just like new home sales is not a relaible indicator.

Just like C&I loan quatities/volume is not a relaible indicator.

Just like CRE default levels are not a reliable indicator.

Just like net wages adjusted for inflation since 1981 is not a relaible indiactor.

You're right Leo, we're all wrong. There are no reliable indiators other than the 4:01 p.m. Mariagasm indicator and if she has three in a five minute period the GDP will be up for the quarter.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:16 | Link to Comment Gussiefink-nottle
Gussiefink-nottle's picture

The only indicator with a near perfect record is of course "Paul the Octopus".

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2010/article-1293985/WORLD-CUP-...

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Zina
Zina's picture

I would suggest that the debate "deflation X hyperinflation" could be solved just consulting Paul the octopus.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:17 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@johngaltfla

Well played.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 10:08 | Link to Comment oklaboy
Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:06 | Link to Comment wang
wang's picture

Leo thanks for the link re the BDI 

The blog you link to is picking up the article from another blog that in turn picked it up from Alphaville

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/07/280641/dont-panic-the-baltic-...

 

more here

http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2010/07/11/bdi-weakens-other-shippin...

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:08 | Link to Comment Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Leo, would you downplay the BDI if it were up 30 straight days? I doubt it.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 10:23 | Link to Comment oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

Leo, great article at Doug Ross, maybe one of the 50 reasons maybe viable?

http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2010/07/hell-is-on-way.html

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:43 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hell with 10 year perspective, lets stretch it out to 20 years or whatever fits the perpetual pumpers predetermined outcome!

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:48 | Link to Comment Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

I take it you don't have your iPad yet and are experiencing some BDI frustration... Be patient your ship will come in.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:55 | Link to Comment taraxias
taraxias's picture

Do you have a sister? If she's a dumb as you it could be a lot of fun.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

I know, i know I should not challenge the great Tyler. Do you have a nickname for ZH sheeple? Zheeple perhaps?

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 12:24 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

I'm pretty sure that Taraxias has not had his rabies shots -- you might want to take that into account...

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:44 | Link to Comment Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

cant they manipulate the baltic dry and the ECRI......that would be a lot of fun...

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:17 | Link to Comment molecool
molecool's picture

They can't - it's not traded - just a reported number AFAIK.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:29 | Link to Comment Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

relieved

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 12:26 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

They can't - it's not traded - just a reported number AFAIK.

I don't think anybody trades unemployment stats or inflation numbers...

Should I stop thinking these numbers are manipulated?

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:44 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Apologies if this has been posted elsewhere here...Jessie's fresh catch of the day;

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/07/china-ratings-agency-do...

 

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:49 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Nice read. Another gov't/private rating agency to capture the minds of the masses. When will it end? When they win?

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:56 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Indeed.

They're masses. Alms/bonds for the poor...alms for the poor ;-)

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:01 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Interesting.  I wonder if any Chinese funds use this ratings agency, and are there any that are required to invest in AAA rated bonds only?  How many billions in redemptions will this cause if so?

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:02 | Link to Comment SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

I believe this announcement should be seen in the context of the recent move to bring the Fannie/Freddie horror show onto the books.  Guess who holds massive amounts of that debt, and remember who Paulson sought to placate early on with assurances that Fannie and Freddie had the full backing of fed dot gov?  It is a counter move, a counter threat.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:28 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

"It is a counter move, a counter threat."

It looks like we say tomatoe they say tomato for a little while longer.

 

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 10:40 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Nmen, Good one.

Tyler needs to give this some attention.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 11:29 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Thanks.

It looks like they saw the story before me and had it all ready to go for the "front running" section.

I think Richmond covered it pretty good...basically the commies are hip dip in our goo and want their domestic goo ranked higher by their "ratings" agencies so they can offload their goo with less competition, as a side effect they may think this action might induce the US to raise taxes to protect the servicing of our debt to them...in addition of course to our taxes already going up next year due to sunsetting of current tax rates & cap gains. Think VAT...cap & trade tax on hysterically corrupted climate models etc.

Whatever we may think of the poor job our rating agencies did in the past due to conflicts of interest and out and out greed pales in comparison to a communist state compelling a ratings agency to value it's debt at state approved rates...probably before the agency even see's what's in it...LOL.

But who knows (only half tongue in cheek here) where ours is backed by "full faith & credit" theirs may be backed with Cantonese gerbil turds...the sky could be the limit for that rare commodity ;-)

 

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:44 | Link to Comment unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

the cartel is already doing its tap dance of happiness on gold and silver.....things are good! they are great! Forget the bad BDI (employment numbers, states going broke, retail investors fleeing the markets, the USD beginning to crater.......)

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:46 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Chinese  economy is slowing. Chinese real estate bubble is popping.

Imports slipped from a yearly growth rate of 48.3% in May to 34.1% in June. Iron-ore and copper imports, for instance, just fell for the third straight month.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-do-chinas-slowing-imports-mean-2010-07-11?dist=beforebell

 

Industrial output slows sharply in India

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/indias-may-industrial-output-growth-slows-sharply-2010-07-12?dist=beforebell

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:48 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Austerity is a bitch - the periphery of Europe is dying to help sustain the more productive core and therefore trade is falling - its simple really.

The German and French savings are being ploughed into core Europe at the expense of the rest - it is energy dynamics in motion without the artificial short term negative energy credit money that was a characteristic of the early years of the European dream/nightmare.

If this continues for any length of time there will be pressure for mass emigration to the centre - the question is will the French and Germans tolerate  a mass exodus of Greek,Spanish and Irish labour to their countries.

This will be the true litmus test for the European banker project.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 10:33 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

This will be the true litmus test for the European banker project.

The indicator for this is the % of waitresses in Killarney that speak Polish.  When it drops below 50%, the litmus test will change from blue to red. 

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 11:31 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Those Polish girls are just beginning to assimilate - God help those bankers if they begin to produce hybrids in Irish quantities.

The dumb redneck gene pool may finally be purged from the system.

 

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:49 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"China just announced the biggest export balance with the US on record."

It can only mean that the order for 300,000,000+ wheelbarrows (so we can carry our money around) has hit the containers...

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:38 | Link to Comment Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

I guesss there has been an overwhelming demand for small to midsize bodybags for marine life somewhere in the US.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:58 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

More COREXIT supplies on the way? Or are they shipping over the FoxConn bodies for disposal?

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

The US ordered millions of oxygen (O2) tanks with the hopes of blowing a huge bubble in the gulf to replensih the O2 supply. The Fed has been brought in as a consultant because of their expertise in bubble technology called algos for the algae

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:50 | Link to Comment Young
Young's picture

Bet a bundle that when it turns up a day, the bulls will use it as a great excuse to stage a monster rally.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 08:55 | Link to Comment -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

100 points on the ES i bet! hell the AUDJPY should literally just fly to oblivion on this news

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:12 | Link to Comment stickyfingers
stickyfingers's picture

Just like everything else, it's not that important until it is.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:14 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

"Yes but shipping stocks are up"

 

Shippers lock in their rates about a year in advance.

Also, the last week was a broad rally, so of course anything with B>1 will move as such.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:15 | Link to Comment molecool
molecool's picture

"and trade by Pacific Ocean rail is surging"

LMAO :-))

Maybe they are using those submarines that keep popping up over here on the West Coast.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:19 | Link to Comment Misean
Misean's picture

There's a 6 month pattern that shows declines after Dec and June.  The post June fall off is a bit dramatic.  I suspect Christmas orders are not terribly robust.

But what do I know.  I don't have a phd.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:22 | Link to Comment Jake Green
Jake Green's picture

"The Captain wired in he had water coming in
And the good ship and crew was in peril
And later that night when his lights went out of sight
Came the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald."

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:26 | Link to Comment OpenEyes
OpenEyes's picture

Wait a minute, this can't be right.  I saw Jim Cramer on the Today Show this morning saying that everything was getting better!  He said that a double-dip is 'off the table' and that earnings would be strong and hiring will pick up in the second half of the year.  So, this must not be a reliable indicator because Cramer is never wrong!  :-)

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:29 | Link to Comment lbrecken
lbrecken's picture

Ithink it clearly signals a softer period but beyond that not quite sure.  Hell in the fall it anticipated via  adrop what is going on now so i think another leg down is in order in growth.  Q is whether its 1-2% GDP which is in mkt or worse.  The worse is unclear now.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:35 | Link to Comment willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

What a difference a day makes - The WSJ should cross reference itself before publishing 'SPIN' articles - note recent WSJ posts -

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2010/06/30/as-steel-mills-sneeze-global-shippers-catch-a-cold/

http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2010/06/23/dont-panic-but-the-baltic-dry-is-...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:42 | Link to Comment Pez
Pez's picture

My guess is all thos eyePads coming of over from the People's Republic of China will not amount to 3/4ths of one cargo ship.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 09:56 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The actual economy is not nearly as important as some around here make it out to be. [/sarcasm]

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 12:36 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Do we have an Actual Economy at this point? 

A debate of the term in light of presents circumstances would be very interesting...

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Anarchist
Anarchist's picture

The Chinese government is the primary supplier of raw materials to factories in China. This was also the norm in the Soviet Union. There is no equivalent in the West other than the strategic oil reserves which has been misused by US politicians to enrich their oil industry buds. The Chinese have been trying to take advantage of collapsing commodity prices over the past 3 years to replenish stockpiles at lower costs. For example the suppliers of iron ore have been trying for years to force the Chinese to pay higher prices. The Chinese have been using their large reserves of iron ore to inflict economic pain on them. The Chinese have also developed methods to make higher grades of steel using cheaper grades of iron ores that are easily available. To use the Baltic Dry index by itself to determine future economic activity is myopic. There are many other issues that come into play. The world’s economy is not going to zero any time soon. The Chinese will continue to grow its own internal economy and export large amounts of product to the outside. Will there be pain, yes but China is not going down the toilet anytime soon. If suppliers of commodities like Russia, Canada or Australia get too uppity the Chinese and others will just buy what they need from other suppliers.  

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 10:06 | Link to Comment snakehead
snakehead's picture


Deutsche Lufthansa (LHS GY) CFO says Cargo business is absolutely booming, and is optimistic about Q2 results due to be published on July 29

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Anarchist
Anarchist's picture

If your product can afford the extra markup, air shipping gives a lot more flexibility than shipping by sea. You don't need to order months in advance or fill a container. You can also react to market fluctuations faster.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 10:57 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Everything is a totaly unreliable indicator, well unless something takes a swing UP, then it wildly proves the perpetuapumpers point and becomes an Adamantium armoured positive indicator!

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 11:02 | Link to Comment ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

maybe they're just airfreighting everything. No time to waist. Must send out quickly. American's waiting at docks.

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 12:26 | Link to Comment Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

Things are soo slow out there, I saw an algo using a calculator. badaboom

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 14:56 | Link to Comment Myzery
Myzery's picture

Wow, what a suprise...

 

Anyone care to think about WHY the BDI (and thus the 'economy' as it's tradionally percieved) is tanking?

 

1. Americans/Europeans are buying less shit from overseas.

2. Through technological advancements, the world is using less raw materials to achive similar results.

3. China is well stocked. China feels it can reduce materials imports and still meet demand.

4. Local, just-in-time manufacturing and shipping via air are becoming more commonplace.

5. American manufacturing is recovering at a faster rate shrinking at a slower pace then consumer spending. This implies less imports/exports and thus less BDI demand.

6. Reduction in energy prices directly impacts BDI cost inputs.

7. iPhones and iPads are shipped via air freight. Software is all bought online nowadays. Instead of buying a calulator (made from materials shipped via BDI), I buy an app shipped via electrons.

Not to mention we have a glut of shipping resources from the boom. Many of the ships ordered in 2005-2008 have just recently come online, cratering the price.

The Harpex has actually been staging a massive recovery since it bottomed out in Jan'10. How do you explain this divergence? Time lag?

I believe you're seing a secular shift ala the new norm. Not just a 'dip' in the economy. People don't need to ship as much shit overseas as we used too.

 

Does anyone care to look a digital traffic and tell me we are in a recession?

 

Mon, 07/12/2010 - 16:46 | Link to Comment Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

We are in a recession, and probably headed for a depression. Increases in digital traffic do not indicate robustness in the economy, just an evolutionary trend.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sprott-wither-green-shootsrend  

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