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Baltic Dry Index Drops Another 1.9%, Hits 1,795

Tyler Durden's picture





 

BDIY was 1830 yesterday. It is now down 1.9% to 1,795. it would be only fitting if the index closed the year below its 2010 lows of 1,700. Would go well with year wides in sovereign risk, with gold at near all time highs, and with stocks at two year highs. Carry on.

 


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Thu, 12/23/2010 - 09:38 | Link to Comment Oligarchs Gone Wild
Oligarchs Gone Wild's picture

The Bernake Man

Its 4 PM on POMO Monday
Heatmap is greenin again
There's a bearded man sitting next to me
Making love to his keynesian sin
.
He says Timmay sell me the 30 year
I'm not really sure how low it goes
But it's treasonous,falacious and I studied it well
When I wore an Ivy League robe
.
Oh Quant Quant Quant, Q's Option spreads
MBS MBS HFT
.
Well we're all in the mood for record bonuses,
and you've certainly got us kowtowed.
Oh Blow us a bubble, you're The Bernanke, man.
Blow it for us right now.
.
Now Lloyd at the windows a friend of mine
He gets me my POMO for free
And he's quick with a tentacle and steal your last dime
But there's some place that he'd rather be
The Bernake I believe this is killing me
As a smile ran away from his face
He says I'm sure I could be that guy you call god
If Zero Hedge faded away
.
Oh Quant Quant Quant, Q's Option spreads
MBS MBS HFT
.
Now Timmays is a big eared lunatic
Whos never had a thought of his own
And he's talking to Hu who's made him his bitch
And he probably will be for life
.
And the peasants are learning gardening skills
As the Oligarchs slowly get bailed
Yes they're sharing a moment they call irony
But it's grander than buying the dip
.
Well we're all in the mood for record bonuses,
and you've certainly got us kowtowed.
Oh Blow us a bubble, you're The Bernanke, man.
Blow it for us right now.
.
It's a pretty good day for no volume at all
As the fund manager loses his job
Cause he knows that it's Ben that they're comin to see
To forget about debt for a while
And the soverign spreads grow out of control
and the inflation threat looms near
And the serfs continue to dwell in their homes
Saying man where did Freedom go?
.
Oh Quant Quant Quant, Q's Option spreads
MBS MBS HFT
.
Well we're all in the mood for record bonuses,
and you've certainly got us kowtowed.
Oh Blow us a bubble, you're The Bernanke, man.
Blow it for us right now.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 12:16 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yet another brilliant ZH song / poem / work of art.  Clean it up a bit, get Billy Joel to sign off on it and submit it to Decca (or whoever does music for money these days), and you have a winner!

+ 100

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 09:39 | Link to Comment westboundnup
westboundnup's picture

Something big's a commin'. 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:37 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

That something big isn't global trade. We are a hair away from April 2009 levels - back when everyone thought the world was coming to an end.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 09:41 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Baltic dry and ecri only matters when they're going up. Ignore all bad data. Carry on.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 09:49 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

Thanks, Mini-True!

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:56 | Link to Comment israhole
israhole's picture

Check out this guy's response.  NOOOOOO!!!!  :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn-gt2StqHM

 

 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:04 | Link to Comment Walter Socheck
Walter Socheck's picture

LOL! Now if only U.S. & European politicians, banksters, and all of the hard working, corrupt, "civil servants" at the Treasury, SEC, CFTC, etc. could voluntarily follow this guys’ lead.... of course most patriotic citizens would undoubtedly request that those cushy desks & chairs, be replaced with chards of glass & rusty barbed wire. Oh, may I also suggest doubling the height of the balcony drop point as well...

 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 17:30 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Your list of possible contestants is not long enough... and the height not nearly so high as it should be.   Let's look at them leaping from the top of at least 10 stories.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 09:46 | Link to Comment doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

the only index in post world war II history to "post a zero print."  i "find it very interesting that gold stocks that produce no gold whatsover" have a "valuation."  there are of course MANY of them and "their valuations seem reasonable for producing absolutely no gold whatsoever nor any hope of producing any gold whatsover EVER."  i do NOT recommend "shorting anything when the so call Fed prints money" for "the usual reasons."  But that's because "as a veteran i believe shorting government debt to pose an existential threat our boys in the field."  And needless to say "the Admirals, Generals and Presidents that command them." 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

From the day the BDI hits triple digits, mark a month and watch the fireworks.

Why is it so critical an indicator?

I see it as the Vix on the "hard" side of the global economy. It is a direct, incorruptible measure of Supply chain risk. Simple.

When it sinks, like it is now,  producers have lost market confidence. And it is a leading indicator since there is a lot of lag in global shipping, long-term contracts etc.

Momentum in the BDI is kind of like the very things it tracks.

Capesize ships take a long time to turn-around.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/12/20/i-met-the-mother-of-cognitive...

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:07 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

"Now, will that be black or white?"

Yes, I mean maybe. ;)

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Heh! 

Classic! ;-)

ORI

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 12:19 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

ORI or anybody:

Is there an index or public number out there somewhere re shipping container rates?  That is a number I would like to track, and would also help all of us with another indicator of the world's financial health (distress).

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 12:49 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Hey DCRB, it's a spot market. Just google a phrase like

global shipping container rates

and you have choice, which of course, will induce cognitive dissonance.... and so on. And on.

Anon!

;-)

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 09:50 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Rising fuel prices and falling BDI? sort of a double down.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 09:51 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

One of these two is not representative of the true prospects for the global economy.

 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:13 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

BDIY to zero is merely an unintended consequence of Amazon's "free shipping" offer.  The shippers will get to make it up on volume.

On a long enough timeline
the shipping rate for
everything drops to zero.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 11:26 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

That's why I got Amazon Prime...got tired of listening to the wailing chillun when my wheat shipment was artificially delayed two days to inspire me.

 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 09:56 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Bdi peaked prior to the spring crash. Every sell side anal-ist that tries to work it into their projections have been wetting themselves since the summer when it surged.

I've seen no media mention of it falling again, but I'm sure if they did it would a "seasonal thing."

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:00 | Link to Comment virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Credit is contracting, Silver is starting to confirm this also.  

Amazing with all the $$ that was pumped into the system and it's not going anywhere.

no demand for goods either.  sad really.

 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:02 | Link to Comment qussl3
qussl3's picture

Anyone have any idea how the supposed explosion in supply of bulk carriers has affected the BDI?

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:05 | Link to Comment yabs
yabs's picture

I catually prefer the chart for drys

take a look at that versus the stock market

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DRYS:US

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:18 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Last dividend reported: N.A.  Discontinued

Aweesome market commentary. She sure ain't no growth stock.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:07 | Link to Comment plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Baltic Dry index, Does Hal the magnificent HFT pump machine know about this index? I didnt think so. Rally on. Personally, I thought Baltic dry was a type of wine or Champagne.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:20 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

More like a Latvian Sapporo knock-off.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:19 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

Raw inputs, bitchez!

A lil Steely Dan for our seafaring shipper friends...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSnL4_IhPHQ

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:25 | Link to Comment lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

Anyone have ideas why GLNG has been bucking the shipping trend? Or, are they

about to tank?

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Never try to catch a falling knife, what a bad time to get into shippers

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:41 | Link to Comment virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

watch the pm's ..esp Ag. the best of all lei.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:59 | Link to Comment OMG
OMG's picture

PM's down DOW up! It's all good:)

 

 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 11:37 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

It is nice to see that the Baltic does move due to fundamentals still and that it has been a good guage at the reality of the world.  So if the historical correlations do hold, we should be seeing the fireworks in Q1. 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 16:13 | Link to Comment hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Thanks for the link.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 17:44 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture
"Every 1 cent increase in gasoline decreases U.S. consumer disposable income by about $600 million per year. The move in oil in the past week alone has almost entirely wiped out the most recent stimulus."

So, this is transfer payments for the oil companies?

What's next on the government agenda?

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 11:47 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

This report is bogus.   Everybody knows we are in the middle of a new boom.    If you don't believe me, just as Harry or any of the other 'all in' guys that mistake gambling with value investing

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 12:24 | Link to Comment obamacious
obamacious's picture

There is only one direction, and that is up. I asked my friend Ben to help me.

 

Dryships: My wife tells me that the shelfs a pretty empty in the stores and she thought that stores have less inventory than in previous Christmas times. In fact, a friend of mine told me that she didn't order as much goods this year than in previous years as she didn't want to sit on inventory like last Christmas.

 

Makes all sense.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Big deal. 

Baltic Dry goes dry every December.  Couldn't be because of Santa Claus commandeering all the shipping?

 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 16:04 | Link to Comment hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Bloomberg 5 yr chart doesn't appear to support your statement..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:32 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

This is just the way the BDI looks before you add in the shipping on Christmas eve by a certain S. Claus, which is treated for international regulatory and tax purposes as if it is performed by seagoing vessels, rather than by air (Santa's activities actually transpire via a "multiverse quantum displacement transporter", and no one knew how to categorize it, so "by sea" got the nod years ago). 

The BDI will look really good next week.

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