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Baltic Dry Index Posts 33rd Consecutive Decline, Down 2.7% to 1,790

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The CSX earnings surge can be easily explained now that the rail company has cornered the China-US transportation corridor (what's that, it's an ocean? that's ok - the president will enact a law changing that). Because goods transit sure isn't using the dry bulk shipping sector, where the Baltic Dry has plumbed to a fresh 14 month low, continuing its longest drop in 9 years, down for a 33rd sequential day to 1,790 from 1,840. Don't look for any record numbers out of the China Customs agency or the US trade deficit in the next month.

 

 

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Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:12 | 466051 dan22
dan22's picture

No wonder look what's going on in China:

In order to buy a house, he had put himself at the hands of loan-sharks. The weight of compound interest is too much...  He said he is desperate, and want to sell a kidney to repay debts owed.

"line was to sell their kidneys, but also left their contact details." Yesterday afternoon, members of the public Xia told the newspaper, he was browsing a forum to see the local Hefei to a sale of kidneys of information.'s survey, this users buy a house by a loan shark, now unable to pay, and would like to sell their kidneys repayment.

 

Full story:

China Shark Loan Ponzi Finance- Local Chinese Sell Their Kidneys to Repay Shark Loans

 

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:53 | 466123 Anarchist
Anarchist's picture

Stupid people exist all over the world. The only reason the same does not happen here is that Americans of all income levels are used to being able to stiff anyone they want when it comes to repaying their debts. Americans also know they can act like A'holes anytime they want and little will happen to them. We need an injection of Chinese justice and payback in this country.

Bullets Bitchez

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:41 | 466202 Whizbang
Whizbang's picture

Be nice, don't forget that half the zh'ers have stopped paying their mortgages and credit card debts so they can buy physical gold. Think of their feelings.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:15 | 466059 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I was surprised at CSX's numbers since their shipping volume has been basically flat for Q2.

http://railfax.transmatch.com/

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:20 | 466064 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I often wonder if accounting fraud is pretty much accepted and welcomed at this point.  Perhaps this explains why small business is not benefitting from the recovery "as expected"?

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:21 | 466068 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Actually, it's encouraged and, probably, demanded.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:13 | 466157 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Rosey fraud is the only alternative to the reality of the desolation.  Expect massive unimaginable truly horrific extrema in overstimulation behaviors in every facet of existence to distract from the alligator that has the lower half of the body down its gullet.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:26 | 466181 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Somewhere Hr. Goebbels is blushing.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:32 | 466084 Hansel
Hansel's picture

CSX saw a 63% increase in automobile volume, and a large increasing in metal shipping, probably for making automobiles, versus last year Q2.  That is where the improvement came.

Financials - http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277948/000027794810000041/qfr_q22010.htm

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:58 | 466132 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

That's the fun with YoY data in a quarter, ain't it?  What about YoY for 2008?  2007?  2006?

All you have to do is look at the SAAR for automotive.  It ain't there.  Q2 last year in automotive was the worst in modern history.  How convienent to highlight that Q2 of 2010 is better.

http://recession.org/library/graphs/monthly-automotive-sales-history

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:43 | 466207 Whizbang
Whizbang's picture

fuel and labor prices have dropped this year improving their margin. That is how you get an improvement on flat volume YoY. Or perhaps it's another conspiracy.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:47 | 466210 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I think the reference was to volume and not margin.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 15:07 | 466896 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Considering that there is a strong push by CSZ to hire people with military experiance, I would look very closely at the percentage of high profit margin Military assets being moved by CSX.

Anecdotal reports indicate that people are seeing more of this type of transport activity.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:15 | 466060 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Completely, utterly, without-doubt, irrelevant data that will in-no-way stop the ramp job in progess.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:22 | 466069 Zexe
Zexe's picture

Agreed

Shorters are getting slaughtered.

 

And Cramer says we've seen the lows for the year.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38203002

Don't mess with the PPT. 

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:29 | 466080 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

There probably are very few shorts in the market right now, which is why it is being ramped up so easily.  When the shorts show up, you will see it, because there will be volume and huge drops of 200-300 points at a time just like before.

And when Cramer says one thing, expect the opposite to happen.  When is the last time he made a call that was correct?  If you count on Cramer to tell you what to do, then you need more help than you think.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:32 | 466088 Zexe
Zexe's picture

I think there are more shorts than you think, THAT'S WHY it is being ramped up so easily.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:44 | 466104 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

There are only shorts and those covering shorts.  And, yes, that's the only fuel left to jam this to astronomically absurd levels.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:17 | 466062 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Tyler, don't you realize that The Messiah 2.0 can WALK ON WATER and is surely capable of doing the same with an oceanic railway system.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:21 | 466066 Misean
Misean's picture

Baltic dry is so pre-i.  There's an app for it.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:25 | 466074 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Looks like a head-and-shoulders top to the BDI "recovery"

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:26 | 466076 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Didn't you read 'The Secret'? If you believe really hard, good things just happen. Screw data.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:12 | 466117 Zina
Zina's picture

+ 10000

Very good point. What we're seeing is exactly a "The Secret" economy.

That crap movie really influenced the point of view of economists, government and media.

It's a "The Secret" recovery!

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 12:01 | 466370 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I believe I am Michaelangelo Buonarroti and I'd paint a masterpiece if they'd only remove this damned straitjacket.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:32 | 466087 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

these people are killing my shorts expiring this july 29.....do i have any hope to see some atleast some downside till then

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:44 | 466106 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I do believe the point of the phantom rally is to kill your puts.  So, no, sorry about that.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:05 | 466148 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

the S&P 500 futures have hit a wall at 1087.60.......the 50dma....i hope this nonsense rally ends soon ...i m beginning to worry now....

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 12:45 | 466497 No Mas
No Mas's picture

That was some wall, huh?

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:15 | 466164 tmftdoyle
tmftdoyle's picture

you are spot on. june exact same pattern, ramp into expiration then collapse.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:37 | 466095 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

the BDI appears to be pointing to apocalyptic fall in trade numbers for june. Is this time to short China? Or would I be too early?

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:24 | 466178 sumo
sumo's picture

China may be easing up on commodity stockpiling, freeing up shipping capacity.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:44 | 466105 docj
docj's picture

Well, at least China has been nice enough to finance every piece of federal spending that is not the big 3 (Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid) over the last year or so.

http://www.nationalreview.com/exchequer/230937/three-programs-take-literally-all-money

Awfully nice of them, don't you think?

Which is, of course, all bullish.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:47 | 466110 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Nice H&S breakdown

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:53 | 466120 hogie9566
hogie9566's picture

Hopefully we won't have to sell our kidneys to pay China back

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:16 | 466167 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

just a polite default would do

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 12:04 | 466380 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Whoops too late!  Why didn't someone tell me sooner?

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:57 | 466135 Anarchist
Anarchist's picture

You guys keep forgetting the Chinese government has huge stores of commodities they bought during the lows. It is not just government stores that are flush, the pig farmers are still hoarding copper they bought two years ago. If copper does not make a big recovery they are the ones headed to slaughter...

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 12:58 | 466525 maddy10
maddy10's picture

they didn't buy copper on their online account

they took delivery to use it so don't worry they will find some better use for it

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:58 | 466137 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The index is showing deceleration which could be approaching a reversal or a dead cat.  Next few days should show which direction.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:09 | 466153 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

No matter how the stock pumpers and hope mongerers want to try and ignore the BDI, it is one the major leading indicators, as it was in 2008 just before the wheels fell off the bus.  The BDI is indicating now that the re-caps they put on the bus are coming apart.  Too bad they didn't use steel belted radials, since Goodyear stock could be at infinity by now.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 11:08 | 466244 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

Nothing worse than a hole in the rubber when stimulation is done.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:13 | 466160 DeweyLeon
DeweyLeon's picture

Cramer told me yesterday that the BDI is falling due to overbuilding of cargo carriers, not from a slowing world economy. 

I intentionally left out the pervasive BOYAH! bookend blockquotes.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:23 | 466176 jesusfreakinco
jesusfreakinco's picture

Giving me confidence to stay short copper... eventually I'll be on the right side... Painful to watch the melt up  :(

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:41 | 466205 IE
IE's picture

Gotta buddy who owns a medium-sized trucking company in the midwest.  They're getting their butts kicked by rail these days. 

Like Tyler said, the trans-pacific rail must be jamming these days as well.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 11:27 | 466284 walküre
walküre's picture

Warren Buffet bought rail last year.

He is in the "know".

Question is.. how much longer is he holding now that the stock has recovered?

The center piece of "recovery" was the Chinese miracle grow economy around the globe. Carmakers are making killer profits because of sales in China.

It's coming to an end in China and the rest of the world hasn't come back from the abyss yet. Banks are still broke. Pigs can't fly, at least not on their own. Australia, Canada and other mostly resource based economies are getting a kick in the face this time.

The BDI reflects the long anticipated end of the commodity game. After the crash the best game in town was in commodities. Now inventories are full, orders are down and commodities are the canary in the coal mine.

It's 2008 all over again. Lower commodity highs, BDI showing tremendous slow down ahead, banks are in trouble when haircuts are expensive.

Why worry? Let investors buy this market up and away. They get burned unless their stops are very tight. In a flash crash, the stops don't get filled.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 12:17 | 466414 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I thought the Buffet purchase was a depressionary hedge as railway in the U.S. will be the cheapest transport during a depression when/if, as I believe should happen, the U.S. returns to a  manufacturing instead of "services" based economy.  Also it is a tangible asset that has real capital.  Ol' Warren's actions speak louder than his words.

 

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 11:53 | 466353 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Well at least their oceans still have water. Ours?..............................

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 12:13 | 466410 chindit13
chindit13's picture

Glass half full types say that the BDI is falling largely due to new capacity coming on line as ships ordered during the boom years hit the water.  Well, I can make this even better news:  there is no rise in sea levels due to global warming;  it's just all those new ships displacing the oceans!

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 12:17 | 466416 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I thought it was Oprah.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 13:04 | 466546 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

But EthaNoL volume shipments are up!

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 13:35 | 466631 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

As warned about earlier, DOW/SP500 remains bullish for now ...

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 18:15 | 467359 dadadum
dadadum's picture

hey- google says ZeroHedge is a "Suspected Malware Site"

see:

http://tinyurl.com/2estsl8

 

and

http://tinyurl.com/25kt2nh

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 20:46 | 467560 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Why this staggering disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street?

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herry's picture

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