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Bangkok Dangerous
After Greece [and soon to be followed by most of EMU countries], Thailand is the new global hotspot for People vs Government style protests. How long before TS seriously HTF with the same, if not even more ferocious, manner across the Globe. When people realize the global span of corruption, inneficiency, debt and future prospects, when a mass large enough is awaken by underground information channels some Michael Bay style scenes will surelly be seen on all streets in all cities.
Per Le Monde:
The situation was extremely tense was, Friday, May 14 in the evening in Bangkok. Clashes between the army and demonstrators killed one person and injured at least eight Thursday, May 13 including a generally favorable to "red shirts" victim of a gunshot attack.
Sawasdipol Khattiya, alias Seh Daeng is very popular among the "red" and de facto responsibility for security operations in their camp, was shot in the temple when he gave an interview to ajournalist from the Herald Tribune in a street of center of the capital.
The reporter of the Herald Tribune wrote that while he was arguing with Seh Daeng, he heard "a loud bang like a firecracker. The general has fallen on the floor, eyes wide open, and demonstrators have taken Emergency her body, apparently lifeless in the hospital. "He is undergoing surgery at the ICU of the hospital Hua Chiew " said a spokesman for the department relief of the capital.
"TOTAL LOOP"
The Army has announced plans to retake by force a street in Bangkok occupied by about 2,000 anti-government protesters, accused of having carried out actions of "intimidation" ."The full closure [area] was established yesterday evening " , said a military official . "The leaders of the network of the city cut the electricity around the intersection of Ratchaprasong last night" , he added. According to police, moreover, five M-79 grenades were fired at the area of finance in Bangkok where protesters and police clashed for about two hours. The army eventually opened fire to repel protesters who were loading, testified cameraman AFP.
In total, throughout the evening, a demonstrator was killed and at least eight were wounded.
The state of emergency declared in Bangkok in early April, was extended to 15 other provinces of North and North-east, a stronghold of "red". A measure which merely confirmed what the plan for ending the crisis the Prime Minister,Abhisit Vejjajiva , was now moribund. Given the deterioration of the situation, the U.S. closed their embassy. "We are very concerned, we monitor very closely" the situation, said Washington spokesman of the State Department, Philip Crowley . Shortly after, the United Kingdom has also announced it was closing its diplomatic mission Bangkok.
Since mid-March, the "red shirts", supporters of the United Front for Democracy and against the dictatorship, is blocking two areas of central Bangkok and call an election to form a new government, saying the election illegitimate ago seventeen months to Abhisit Vejjajiva, with military support. They demanded the return of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra , ousted in 2006 and exiled abroad after a coup against his government.
Ten days ago, the protesters seemed about to break camp after agreeing terms to end the crisis the Prime Minister. But, contradictions in new claims, the "red" remained. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, finally withdrew its offer to hold parliamentary elections early Nov. 14, one year ahead of schedule.
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Both time and space considered to be boundless and immeasurable rather than being calculable and measurable in Buddhism. Time can be and is only measured from relative perspectives as has been proven by modern physics. Buddhists believe that right thinking and right conduct is what is needed to achieve peace of mind. On the other-hand the concept of an interventionist force and messianic philosophy precisely leads to dualistic conflicts in what is seen by a party as a struggle of the good and the chosen versus heathens. This dualism which originated in Zoroastrianism, however was adopted into a more refined form of absolutism by Judaism. This mode of thinking was then passed onto Judaistic heresies such as Christianity and Islam along with its modern secular variants such as Marxism and Communism. The Universe is ever-changing, disordered and not benevolent in and of itself. The profoundness of a particular version of truth is simply perspective. Paradise on earth cannot exist when so many versions of the "universal truth" aim to act out against other beliefs including other such "universal truths".
What has Greece contributed to this world since Constantine's death, really? Behavior is often times only a result of conditioning after all.
Thailand like many countries is not performing to its true potential. Going from a subsistence/fishing Buddhist kingdom of only a few decades ago to a modern nation state takes time. What is interesting at the moment is that through the internet, TV, magazines and tourism many people are being exposed to the potential material wealth of the world. Thais, who years ago sat in their hut, fished for two hours a day, played with their kids and waited for the rain to fall have been thrust into the arena of a globalized world. (I remember sitting with the owner of a bungalow/hotel in Ko Phan Gan in 1996 on my first visit to the country and asking whether he was happier now or twenty years ago. He wasn’t sure.) This clash of mindsets and potentialities creates conflict. The Thai King has been remiss. A good monarch will institute a decent chain of command and succession plans. He will train and mentor his charge to assume the responsibilities of leading the nation. (I would probably get done for lèse-majesté if I was at Thai border control now. So be it. It is necessary to speak truth to power, or else nothing unfolds. Some kings need more help than others...) These multi-coloured protests are a symptom of a larger malaise in the world. The Buddhist mindset does not agree with the idea of an interventionist Creator. Time is cyclical in Buddhism, not linear and expansive. A country or group of people is only as good as the thinking of its members. How many Thais actually believe that the universe is stable, ordered, benevolent and expansive ? Such a profound truth may be beyond many people in the Kingdom, but some wise heads must prevail. The whole world is a potential paradise beset with troubles. Witness the current chaos within the beauty of Greece. Does anyone else understand the metaphor ? Bits of the global hologram. All actions are preceded by thoughts. All behaviour is a result of mindset and setting. The pressure cooker of Bangkok must be allowed to let off some stream.
At least they are not going to fight at Ankor Wat.
On Friday May 14th 2010 at 4:30 PST Adam dropped some serious knowledge on the ZH crew. And for that we were thankful.
way to probe deeper Adam. couldn't resist the subtle jabs though, could ya?
au contraire, some of those profound truths i've ever heard drop have come from the mouths of people of Thai origin. guess that makes me a fool. so be it.
some of those [most] profound truths i've ever heard drop have come from the mouths of people of Thai origin.
I agree completely.
thanks for the [most] accurate correction mate. enjoy the mangoes.
I wonder how this could have happened!
Everytime I go there, all they talk about it "love you longetime, sucky suck!"
I mean, these people are educated and shiot!
This world is going to the shithole...
Nice. The Thais know how to party.
300 miles north of BKK here. Cops on the street but solid red country here in CNX. Half our staff are from BKK and the other native CNX. No political discussions in office. People are jumpy but no issues up here.
What is CNX?
Don't EVER lift up someone with a head wound.
Chindit13, Kina, Cheeky - that was way better than reading an article in the Economist. Merci beaucoup.
me 3
+1
Skytrain and the subway were both shut down really early today. It's hell trying to get around the city
Cheeky,
I have a question and desire a thoughtful response, which is why I am asking you. Why would the FED not just raise interest rates? I know about the interest on the debt, but they can just print more money to pay more interest. Would that be the "end game" signal...they don't know what else to do so they increase the interest rate, monetize the debt interest payments and begin the downward spiral of printing to cover debt payments? Is it already too late? What stops them from doing this. If it's a long answer, would you consider writing an article examining this topic? Thanks!
As long as the US Treasury runs a deficit (creating 'money' and depositing it in banks in the process) interest rates will remain low.
The Establishment cannot control interest rates or create value, only recycle funds - the deficits of government being the surplus of the private sector (banks and finance).
The relationship between finance and governments is perverse and circular - and usually hidden by other business. Now that ordinary business is closed/bankrupt/fled out of the country, the circular process is in plain view. The banks lend to the governments (fiscal deficits) and the governments lend back to the banks (interest rate spreads/yield curves or bailouts.) No new money is created, only commerce can create new money (by adding value to capital).
Commerce is failing because of the long- term rise in primary input costs, mostly crude oil which has risen in nominal terms almost 700% since 1998 (and higher still in real terms as the energy return on energy invested continues to decline). Input costs are rising because of depletion mediated by finance- created credit. Credit intermediation conceals and allocates input shortages. The tactics to deal with rising input costs included inflating pseudo- wealth generating finance bubbles and offshoring high- priced labor (which perversely offshored high-paying customers for businesses making high- priced goods such as houses.)
The Fed can only defend market interest rates, not set them except occasionally at the margins (by quantitative easing or open market operations). Rates are low because the deficits put deposits in the private sector that are unmarketable because there is little commercial demand for them that offers reasonable risk/return. Low or zero rates (ZIRP) are a manifestation of peak oil where oil input costs destroys the demand both for oil and credit. What is left is the government lending funds to the banks that in turn lend them back to governments.
BTW, the US and the rest of the world does not really have a 'fiat' or government- created currency/money regime but rather a finance/debt regime. The government can create currency (coins and paper) by the central bank lending but the vast majority of what most people think of as money is created by finance and banks. It is all lent into existence.
Dang you have to write like a human being...
Input cost = direct costs? Cool with the credit intermediation. When direct costs became too high, businesses went to cheap credit markets. Cool with peak oil.
Here's the sentence that is killing me...Rates are low because the deficits put deposits in the private sector that are unmarketable because there is little commercial demand for them that offers reasonable risk/return. All my money would be in the bank if I was receiving a rate of return that I felt would compensate me for opportunity costs and inflation. However, since my bank does not offer a sufficient rate of return, I have chosen to deplete my savings. Here's an example, we needed a new roof, if I was getting 7% interest on my savings, I may consider putting off that new roof until the last possible moment; however, because the rate of return was low and risk of inflation increasing (IMHO), I chose to liquidate those funds and purchase roofing materials....I tell my husband that same thing about the new front porch, bathroom upgrades and new pool liner also.
Point being, I see no reason to continue saving while my money is slowly being eroded by inflation....even at 2%-3% rate of inflation when rate of return is 1.5%
Low or zero rates (ZIRP) are a manifestation of peak oil where oil input costs destroys the demand both for oil and credit. I'm cool with that, supply and demand, basically direct costs depleted profit margins. When profit margins were depleted, the demand for both oil and credit declined. Domino effect.
But, why didn't peak oil cause an increase in consumer prices....creating an equilibrium point where profit margins were stabilized...and those profits invested in growth and that growth manifested in jobs, which spawned more growth? I am talking long-term, not the past couple of years. I realize that corporations outsourced labor overseas during this time, which reduced the effects of peak oil and higher direct costs.
Now I am just getting confused...but thinking, none the less
We really haven't experienced peak oil effects yet. $147 a barrel was a sneak preview.definitely increased consumer costs. Don't see any relation between zirp and PO. Peak Oil effects will manifest within a couple of years though...demand, due to cost, may back down a smidgen, but prices will continue to rise.
What will peak oil prices look like when measured in... ounces?
Janice, your question is the gold standard of the current economy: Interest Rates.
Higher rates would mean, other than the debt interest increase, that savers would get a bit on their money as well. The ramifications are stupendous. The banks could not borrow at zip and gamble as usual. They'd have those pesky "customers" to deal with. Since the TBTFs are now "banks", it would interfere with their gambling. Sorta like when you go into a mall store where the manager is absent. YOU are a nuisance as a customer.
You'd think that higher rates would attract some foreign bidders for the bond auctions, but the Feds have that under control at this point. As long as "households" can buy them, there is no failed auction threat, hence, no reason to raise rates.
Persons more knowledgeable than I will jump all over this response and point out my errors. Please do, I could learn more. I'm just trying to hit the high points.
I'm good with that. What keeps me awake at night is the thought that the Fed will increase interest rates, appearing to be fiscally responsive to the market makers, and that the market will believe the lies while my investments will tank. As long as the fed continues "business as usual" like they have for the last 10+ years, my investments will be okay.
Edit" I read Steve's post below...the feds can't raise interest rates, the "market" would have to do that. If "the Fed is the market" for Treasuries, then the rate should be zero, because there is no demand for Treasuries. Why buy Treasuries and create price stimulation in that market when you can take that same money and make millions more buy investing in other things. Which was allowed in 1980 when the Glass-Steagall act was repealed and the banks figured out that there were easier ways to make money other than to earn it a little at a time.
Okay, I sleep better at night knowing that my fears are baseless, because TBTF banks will never return to the Treasury market until the politicians force them to do it..recent legislation not looking so good....Nero fiddled as Rome burned....we should not see a response from the politicians until the fire is licking their assets. Okay ~ good with my investment decisions again. whew!
What interest rate would you accept from a government whose debt service exceeds GDP?
Don't you think investors would prefer to believe that they might get repaid someday?
It is incumbent on every elected Thai government to use every means possible to get wealthy and help associates get wealthy. It has always been like that. Thaksin broke that mold a bit and personally it wasn't neccessary for him. Though there would be no way you could keep control of all ministries and stay leader.
Another thing with Thaksin, being a successful businessman, he was applying sesible business principles for the development of the country, ie. acting like a real PM.
The red shirts support the side that are sympathetic to Thaksin.
Thailands big problem now is the king is old and very sick. When he dies the crown prince is not the most popular person in Thailand, is more viewed with fear than awe. His sister however is loved, I believe she is crown princess. I wonder how long she will live after the king dies if she is in Thainland. Probably safe as touching her would create even bigger troubles.
Just passed through Bangkok. Many parts of the city have ground to a halt. Soldiers are everywhere, stores are shut in some of the key business areas, and people are getting pissed off. A month or two ago it was just a big party, with Red Shirts playing guitars, drinking cheap whiskey, doing the occasional chant, and squatting wherever they felt like squatting. That all changed.
It's not quite so simple, but essentially the Red Shirts are primarily from the countryside, specifically from the eastern part of Thailand known as Isarn, while the opposition Yellow Shirts, who support the new PM and dislike the overthrown billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, are the more educated city folk. Thaksin came into power immensely wealthy; he left even more rich. His hold on power derived mostly from the bread and circuses he provided to the countryfolk, while stuffing his pockets with as much as he could get his hands on. Under his rule Thailand spent $3 billion on a $1 billion airport, among other things, so the opportunity for profit was great.
What the Red Shirts use as an argument is that Thaksin was overthrown in a military coup, which in Thailand is the favored way to step down anyway. Still, they had been experimenting with a democracy of sorts, so a coup flies in the face of democratic principles.
This is a tough one to call. Thaksin is hardly a sympathetic figure. On the other hand, a country is either a democracy or it's not. Sadly, not a lot of thought goes into the tactics of the protestors, who have constructed armed camps lined with sharpened bamboo spikes, and backed up by weapons seized from the military during the protests, or else provided by sympathetic members of the armed forces. They do not always know where they are shooting, nor why. Much of it is just a game for them, albeit with deadly consequences for those unlucky enough to be in their line of fire.
What is happening in Thailand cannot be compared to what is happening in Greece.
Bangkok is quite dangerous at present. The fight has been carried to parts of town frequented by foreigners, which is to say the business, shopping and financial districts. It has now even spread to the nightlife areas such as Nana Plaza.
About two weeks ago some Red Shirt clown launched three m79 grenades from Lumpini Park onto the roof of Saladaeng Skytrain, killing one woman and injuring many others. Two days ago a sniper took out a policeman near Saladaeng, and a motorcycle drive-by killed a soldier. Anyone on the street is fair game. Some of the Red Shirts are shaking down foreigners and locals alike for money, under threat of bodily harm. Nothing noble about that.
The airport remains open, and may stay that way because it and all roads leading to it are heavily lined by soldiers. Getting downtown from the airport is now via a slow and circuitous route, and many hotels are shutting down, so anyone planning a visit to the "Land of Smiles" might want to do some checking on conditions before they go.
chindit. I live here. Pretty accurate assesment.
Thaksin is hardly a sympathetic figure.
I obviously agree. They would have a case w/o him, but then where would the funding come from?
I would just add that to depict this as class warfare is not really accurate. I mean Thaksin is the elite. Rural v. Urban is a better description of the divide to me. Yes, the Red Shirts have supporters in BKK, but they're mostly migrants. Many rural Thais migrate to Bangkok for the part of the year when they're not farming to make money.
This story illustrates my point. Last year, during the Songkran riots, some Red Shirts comandeered an LPG tank truck and parked it in a slum. They threatened the gov. that they would blow it up if their demands were not met. Maybe you can imagine the feelings of the locals living there with their families who went out and asked that the truck be moved. Things escalated and one of the locals was shot dead by the Red Shirts.
Then the false story went around the world that the gov or the Yellow Shirts shot the guy!?!
One other thing to share is that anyone who's spent time in Thailand knows that police corruption is endemic. Thaksin came from the police and was their patron saint. As such, you can see why the Army and not the police have wound up doing all the heavy lifting.
Thaksin is one of these stateless globalist guys. Thailand is too precious a place to be turned into another vapid wasteland. Some Thai patriots understand and won't surrender to Thaksin's money power, aka the ability to buy votes. Buying votes with looted money no less.
I'm in the countryside. The mangos are ripe. Showers are falling. The hills are green and beautiful and the people are as kind and friendly as ever.
You lucky devil. Enjoy the peace and quiet + fresh air and dark skies at night!
Yah well thanks Hulk but I am, we all are pretty sad about the whole thing.
In the cause of full disclosure, re. peace and quiet + fresh air and dark skies at night
Yes now, but last month during The Burn, Wow - one could not breath. Almost all forest land in SE Asia goes up in smoke in March and April.
Lot's of carbon.
Chindit
I thank you for your onsite reporting and I always look forward to your posts. You are a valuable resource.
Keep your head down. Hilarious how much the NY Times et al sucks. They'd rather keep their owners riding on horses than pay for a real writer like you.
Heading to Phuket in August/September. I love Thailand and the Thai people, I wish them only the best. Let's hope they can sort this out soon.
What happened in Nana? I haven't heard anything about that. Where did you hear this from?
Thaksin's problem was that he didn't run government according to the military and palace. He was engaged in negotiating free trade agreements that cut across the income of military and palace. Another annoying thing about Thaksin was his universal popularity with the people, hitherto the privilidge of the king. So he had some powerful forces against him despite being democratically elected.
The irony with Thaksin was that by historical comparisons he was probably Thailand's least corrupt Prime Minister. He was a taicoon long before going into politics and for a long while rejected the notion. He was a popular and respected foreign minister in a previous goverment
The military and the Palace have used their powers and corrupted the judiciary to 1. outlaw the party that kept being elected 2. lay false charges and confiscate his Thai domiciled wealth.
The Palace hates Thaksin because he is a clean skin, successful, too popular and a threat to their privilidge opinion of themselves.
There is much more to this business that fronts the eyes, and most of it is to do with the Palace. Which it has been rumoured heads a large section of the mafia.
Wow! Wow! Wow! I agree, there are some social justice issues behind the Bangkok protests, but most of what kina has written above is pure bs.
The universal popularity with the people - Try selling that in Naratiwat or Patani, where Thaksin's heavy/brutal hand on the muslim south and his backing for the GW GWOT spawned an exploxive resurgence in the sepratist movement. Look up the Tak Bai massacre. Look up black sites. No one held accountable. After that, the insurgents over ran an arms depot, made off with war weapons and the level of violence jumped dramaticly.
Many poor Issan farmers love Thaksin, because of the village fund program. A sort of opaque micro-finance quagmire where the money is loaned for one year supposedly for some productive purpose, but in the vast, vast majority of cases, is just gone. Then, the year's up and the money needs to be paid back. No one has the cash. So ... they go to the loan shark with the wife's jewelry or their land title deeds, borrow money at outrageous, usurous rates for a month, pay back the village fund and if they stay connected and gungho about Thaksin, the village fund loan get's reissued. This goes on year after year so that each year the villager is more desperate and the sharks stay well fed.
How many of the Red Shirt farmers in Bangkok owe money to the village fund and worry that they will not get a roll over, losing their land/collateral if they are not suitably enthused about the the former PM? Many.
They are promised 300 baht/day to protest. When they arrive in Bangkok, they have their national ID cards taken away. They do not get their ID's back, get paid and get on the bus to go back home until the protest cadre allow it. The Thai ID card in a land of porous borders and a large class of desperately poor illegals is a prized posession/necessity for rural Thais in a way that would be hard for Americans (now, with the possible exception of Hispanic Americans in AZ) to imagine.
They have become cannon fodder, providing a screen for the gun toting, grenade launching terrorists behind them.
Thailand's least corrupt Prime Minister. Thaksin ripped off money on a scale never before imagined.
Thaksin sold national assets and pocketed $2B in a byzantian tax-free deal when he sold his Shin Telecom to Singapore's Temasek, a firm connected to his wife's family.
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=20&art_id=36715&sid...
This regarding $10M passed thru Myanmar into his company was put on hold after Thaksin fled the country. Former Thaksin FM 'I warned, he didn't listen.'
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2009/12/23/politics/politics_30118996.php
The previous, FM in the last, short lived Thaksin funded government, who previously was Thaksin's personal lawyer, has been accused of making border concessions with Cambodia in return for development rights to Cambodian off-shore oil concessions for Thaksin.
The specific land deal case against Thaksin's wife that caused the two to flee is pretty straight forward to any impartial view.
I could go on, but you get the idea. And I'm junking your ridiculous post.
I'll just close by saying I was in country during the extra-judicial killings during Thaksin's war on drugs. 2,400 people were summarily executed before Thaksin ordered the newspapers to stop counting. There were kill quotas by province. When some provinces would not go along, the govenors were warned to get their numbers up - pronto. In one infamous case, the headmen from a group of northern hill tribe villages were ordered into the valley to hear an anti-drug presentation by the police. They were all machine gunned on their way back at night.
A couple in Mae Sot was gunned down in their car, with their kid in the back, by the police because they displayed sudden wealth. It turns out, they had just won the lottery.
A ch 11 camera man, while filming a Thaksin news conference put down his camera, broke into tears and said 'Why did you have my father killed?' He was a poor, but honest, hard working rice farmer, who got his kid an education, but after a greuling day in the sun, he liked to have a toke.
So F U and you post.
Yeah, a country of sunshine and lollipops.
Sidenote
You should read how annoyed the Scandinavian beach property owners are at all this. They know shit about any of this and think these people should just all go home so the pale skins can visit their villas.
SET up today.
Shinawatra is a fascinating character behind the scenes to say the least. a trickster in the indigenous mythological sense of the word.
go back to bed.
just imagine yourself a sleep.
what happened!
busy busy busy.
blood on your saddle, i suppose.
Carbon baby, carbon, we've got some ole mines we can use as oil containers, as soon as i figure a way to siphon that shit up here! And we're not doing moonshine. We're UP IN SMOKE!
one could find some of the best year-round climatic conditions in them there hills for sure.
Thank you Cheeky you are light in a dying world where corruption will fail, absolutely, and the path narrows. Good Health and Triumph to you!
Fank you Ruff.
On a side note; shouldn't you be sleeping; WTF are ya doing; extracting oil or what.
I'm away visiting homeland, trying to keep up with all your asses!
What Homeland.
WV! Mofo!
HA HA HA HA HA
Send me some Virginian moonshine or whatever it is that is WV main export.
Send me some Virginian moonshine or whatever it is that is WV main export.
It used to be coal, but now it is fraud, ala Jan Berkowitz - the biggest fraudser in WV and NC - to wit, Ferri -vs- Berkowitz, RICO case in Eastern Dist of NY.
"Send me some Virginian moonshine or whatever it is that is WV main export."
West Virginia exports mountain tops and what can be found under them, to the detriment of most of the natives.
West Virginia gave birth to the tooth brush. Any other state and it would have been called the "teeth brush"...
WV man takes his daughter to the doctor because he wants to put her on birth control. "Is she sexually active," the doctor asks. The WV man responds, "Nah, she just lays there, like her sister."
[Ba-da-dum...]