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The Bangkok War Zone
With 30 people already dead, the escalating "live fire" violence in Thailand's capital, which shows no signs of abating, will surely have a wide-ranging and adverse impact on the entire Asian region shortly. Attached is a video of the warzone that Bangkok has morphed into via RTN.
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This is your best bet to follow the unrest in Bangkok, and maybe soon, the rest of Thailand.
http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/
Check the comments section in the running commentary for some good twitter, youtube, and other links. Some pretty interesting on the ground reporting too. Like here:
http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/05/16/nick-nostitz-in-the-...
Wait until the flow of weapons start appearing for the protesters, then the escalation begins.
I assume you mean they will be arriving in cigarette boats in the gulf and buying weapons at US gun shows.
Your sarcasm is amusing, or demonstrates your stupidity. The Red Shirts are fighting what has been an evolving civil war since 2004; however, the length of history goes back forty years. With each passing year, the protests have been growing more hostile to what we see now as open violence. The shooting of the Red Shirt security advisor is just the latest in what will turn a powder cage explosive. In the region, you have groups that are sympathetic to the cause of the Red Shirts - even in the Thai military. Weapons will flow in from a variety of locations, in particular the funding could come for the benefactor of the Red Shirts fight, Thaksin Shinawatra, who is a billionaire.
Thank you for stating the scenario's most obvious and well known facts as if you were making a point.
And what is a 'powder cage'?
It's when you rescue the birdcage from a tank of diesel that accidentally ignites on the 4th of July?
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Yeah.
The homemade bottle-rocket launcher seems fun and all, but you're going to need a just a little extra punch to get through all that kevlar boys. Gun up or quietly go back to work, because the other side came ready to fight. Those HK33's will ruin your day, I shit you not.
Thailand doesn't have a 2nd amendment. Sucks to be oppressed, and sometimes it is fatal.
Have to agree. This is a little bit melodramatic.
You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed.
Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Mt 24.6-7
Truly, an amazing time to be alive.
You are amazed but not alarmed. Interesting. I'm not feeling very amazed by these events.
They have a preference for M79 grenade launchers.
Some more pictures.
Protesters and Police Clash in Bangkok - The New York Times > World > Slide Show > Slide 1 of 10
I wish it would end.
"Only the dead have seen the end of wars"
I second your wish.
but end how? how should this end?
Saw this and thought it worth repeating.
POST BAG More sticks, fewer guns like other countriesSaturday's Bangkok Post contained a photo of a red shirt (egged on by his six buddies) kicking a soldier in the head. On TV I've just watched an army truck being hijacked and soldiers dragged out and viciously beaten by protesters.
I hope that all Thai people, and especially Bangkokians, realise that these poor young men in the army are doing an incredibly difficult job for their sake.
I'm surprised TV stations and media are not uniting to more strongly condemn these red shirt outrages.
Red shirts complain about media bias, but what strikes me about Thai TV news _ I've lived here 10 years and speak enough Thai to understand 80% of it _ is how unwilling anyone is to come out and clearly state they disapprove of red shirt behaviour.
I live in Chiang Mai, a supposed red shirt stronghold, and even here most people seem to want the protesters to just go home. So I think it's safe to say that in the general public the tide of opinion is against them. So I urge all Thai people to get off the fence in the face of this serious national emergency and make their voice heard if they really want Bangkok to return to normal.
For my part I think Thailand is far too centralised, and I sympathise with people from upcountry regions who want more facilities and job opportunities, but I think the red shirt methods and their allegiance to Thaksin are misguided, to say the least. I think the current lockdown is well overdue and, after giving fair warning so that women and children can leave the area, it is high time the army goes into Ratchaprasong itself and forcibly removes everyone there.
However, one very important point, and I'm amazed this has not been more talked about: why does the army have to use guns and not just riot shields and batons, as is standard practice in so many other countries when dealing with rioting crowds?
I know it may be difficult in the heat of Bangkok to engage in hand-to-hand combat but these are peoples' lives we're talking about _ 29 dead since Thursday _ 29 families who will be devastated. Anyone who's ever lost a family member to an untimely death will know how long-term the effects can be. Apart from that, killing people also creates martyrs, breeds resentment and increases the desire of the opposition to come back and seek revenge at a later date.
While I like and respect Abhisit as a prime minister he has to do better on this account, he has to do better than any Thai leader in the past (including Thaksin, who in 2003 decided drug-dealing was reason enough to have 2,000-plus people executed). He has to end this culture of indifference to death in Thailand and acknowledge that every red shirt has the right to life.
While they may provoke and annoy, he has to rise above their level.
Even the most troublesome of them, even the ones who attack police and soldiers and seem to have a death wish, deserve only to be arrested, not to die.
The only time a soldier should be using lethal force is when he clearly sees a Red Shirt about to fire a deadly weapon and can stop it. But I dont think thats the case with all of the 24 people whove died since Thursday by any means, and TV pictures clearly show soldiers at times firing at crowds in the distance when they are not directly threatened at all.
So when it comes to the clearing of Ratchaprasong I hope the authorities realise there are ways of doing this which mean there are very few actual casualties; soldiers with guns can be on hand to deal with the worst of the Red Shirts but for the most part there are non-lethal yet very effective crowd dispersal methods that can be used, such as tear gas, water cannons, tasers and clubs. Also, though it may seem silly, cant the authorities set up very big speakers all around Ratchaprasong, protect them inside cages, and have them emit very loud, piercing noises which will make the Red Shirt leaders on stage inaudible and the already-weakened crowds very irritable and hopefully more prone to give up and go home.
KEVIN KAVANAGH
Chiang Mai
http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/37436/more-sticks-less-guns-l...
Yeah, just give up ya damn redshirts.
It looks like mostly our equipment is being used. That has to be a relief to defense contractor's investors that our main export is still highly desired.
I don't think we count defense services such as war as an export because we, the tax payers, pay for it in lives and in cash. But if it were counted as an export, all Defense would probably bring our trade deficit to zero. Shame the US just doesn't invoice the various beneficiaries, even if it's US oil companies operating overseas or oil services companies, which would force them to repatriate much of their profits in order to pay their bills, because nothing quite says "pay us now" like a few Abrams tanks parked at Corporate headquarters with their main cannons elevated and pointing at the C-Suites.
Chart gets even more interesting going back to Sept/Oct 2009 when the King entered the hospital (still there) and rumors began to fly in Nov. Also in early 2010 around the Thaksin trial and verdict. Roller coaster. Markets open on Monday despite a just declared "holiday".
There goes Thailands only source of income... sex tourism (http://www.geekroar.com/leopoldo/2006/03/28/thailand-sex-tourism/).
Excerpts of Jamie Dimon's commencement address Sunday May 16 Syracuse University
(note that Reuters reports it was a 20 minute speech but this clip is just 3 minutes )
video
scroll to the 30 second mark
http://bit.ly/9z0Yig
sheep with sheepskins....go figure
With all the chaos in Bangkok, and around the world, is the United States now inexorably fated to follow the Soviet Union on the path leading to social breakdown, internal collapse, secessionism, and general chaos? This question is objectively now on the agenda. And not surprisingly, a gaggle of foundation-funded professors and other experts, led by that notorious British reactionary Niall Ferguson, are gloating in Schadenfreude and jubilation that the United States is now irrevocably doomed to imperial implosion, based largely on Paul Kennedy’s dangerous half-truth about imperial overstretch. And not only that: Niall Ferguson appears to be preparing the ground for some kind of massive bear raid against the US dollar emanating from London, some kind of a speculative thunderbolt capable of bringing the US breakdown crisis to a fast-track culmination.
The answer presented here to the question posed in the title is that, while the gravity of the US crisis is undeniable, it would be criminal stupidity to assert that we are dealing with some kind of irresistible cycle of US national decline. Quite the contrary: the historical experience of the New Deal, if properly evaluated, reliably indicates a broad array of economic reform measures which are immediately available to lead the US and the world out of the current crisis. The challenge to all serious American thinkers is to specify the needed components of a general US return to a regulated and dirigistic New Deal economic model, and to make these measures intelligible to the vast majority of the US population, and to agitate effectively for their implementation. (Need we point out that both Obama’s corporatist Democratic Party and the right-wing radical Republican Party are hysterically hostile to the New Deal?) Analysts who imagine that their role is to produce ever more dazzling or bombastic rhetorical invectives against the Wall Street collapse we see all around us are simply irrelevant at this point. Every real intellectual leader needs to have an answer ready for the question, “What is your program for overcoming the current world economic depression? Where are your solutions?” Those who do not deal in such answers can no longer be taken seriously.
Standard Tombstone for Empires: Died of OligarchyThe notion of imperial overstretch, first coined by Paul Kennedy two decades ago, is now often used to obscure the real causes of decline when the discussion of these might hit too close to home for certain vested interests in today’s world. Reactionary historians have a decided preference for explaining the collapse of the empires of the past based on military defeat and foreign invasion. This allows them to project their own militarism and xenophobia back into the past, and above all allows them to ignore the kinds of destructive socioeconomic changes in the direction of oligarchy, neo-feudalism, and plutocracy, as well as Malthusianism, which can be observed as factors in imperial decline. If they are willing to discuss such factors at all, they prefer to focus on monetary aggregates such as national debt, while giving scant consideration to such really decisive issues as technological progress or retrogression, the state of the industrial base, the standard of living, the situation of the family farm, the productivity of agriculture, and a series of related considerations which we can label real economics as expressed in terms of tangible physical wealth or hard commodity production — as distinct from the paper wealth derived from finance, banking, usury, and speculative bubbles. As we go further back in the past, the specific forms of some of these factors change, but their essence remains remarkably similar.
In other words, empires fall in reality because of internal decay. Such decay is usually a matter of agricultural and industrial decline, technological and scientific stagnation, and the misery and of the broad majority of the population — typically, the crushing of the middle class of farmers and producers. The work of destruction thus accomplished can proceed for a long time. A foreign invasion, catastrophic military defeat, or a financial panic is merely the moment in which the prevailing decadent state of affairs is dramatically revealed and the general complacency of the ruling elite shattered. The barbarian invasions of the fourth and fifth centuries A.D. did not doom the Roman empire by themselves, but unmasked the critical weaknesses which had been building up for centuries.
Neo-Feudalism Corrosive to Great StatesThe most prevalent cause of imperial decline and collapse is the growth of oligarchy, which in our time has often taken the form of neo-feudalism. In the fall of the Roman Empire, a central role was played by a secular tendency towards hyperinflation during the final phase. Under Diocletian and thereafter, technological innovation was strangled by regulations which forbade changes in the property of any guild – the equivalent of today’s green jobs craze. Trade never fully recovered from the crisis of the third century A.D., and the cities went into decline. As law and order deteriorated, regional powers emerged through civil war and barbarian invasion and became formidable enough to ignore any central authority. Ordinary members of the population had to seek protection under local potentates, soon to be called barons, who offered military defense in exchange for serfdom. Before too long, these arrangements took the form of the manorial system of the dark ages, which went hand in hand with a precipitous collapse of the population in Western Europe and the general decline in the level of civilization.
In the China of the Han Dynasty, similar changes were at work. Large latifundists emerged who were powerful enough to ignore the imperial authority even as they enslaved and otherwise subjugated peasants using issues like debt as powerful weapons. With the fall of the Han, Chinese civilization broke up into several petty states amidst a general decline in the attained level of civilization.
One of the last chances to save Rome from stagnation and decline came perhaps during the era of the Gracchi brothers between 150 and 125 BC, after the victory in the Punic wars against Carthage. This was the point where large-scale gang slavery on agricultural latifundia began to be introduced in places like Sicily. The Gracchi saw that agricultural slavery would destroy the basis of the Roman army, which relied on the independent small farmer or assiduus for its recruits. When the land reform they proposed was defeated by the assassination of both brothers, the gradual decline of the Roman Empire became almost inescapable. A similar point of inflection can be seen in the Han Empire of China in the reforms attempted by Wang Man, who was in power in the first years of the Common Era. When Wang Man’s reforms were frustrated, the Han Empire may well have passed the point of no return. The theme system of the Byzantine Empire and the equal-field system of the Tang dynasty both represented attempts to avoid yet another relapse into conditions which we today would call neo-feudal.
We may be living through a similar decisive phase today. The imperatives of our time are to shut down the zombie banks, to tax speculative transactions with the Tobin tax, to outlaw foreclosures, to nationalize the central banks, to issue 0% government-generated loans for massive infrastructural development, to preserve and expand the social safety net of health, education, and welfare, and to re-establish a coherent and orderly world monetary system devoted to the rapid expansion of world trade. If these reforms cannot be implemented in time, the civilization we see around us may indeed go the way of Rome and the Han.
I always enjoy your posts, "Geopol", how apt! Wonderful panoramic view of history and how the moving parts mesh. Thank you. There has to be others who feel the same way, but we take excellence so much for granted here, we sometimes fail to pause and acknowledge it. That absolutely unwarranted junk vote however really got me riled up!
Hi Geopol:
While your summary of empire collapse was interesting, your closing reform ideas are close to being the opposite of what is needed to create a free and prosperous future. They are based on false beliefs in where prosperity comes from.
Ultimately prosperity will rely on the character of the people that make up your society. The more centralized authority becomes, the more it becomes the tool of those who who exploit through force or deception. Prosperity comes from a society of people who are educated from youth in such a way that the society of individuals as a whole respects each other's life, liberty, and property, and penalizes and checks those who would otherwise choose to live through force or fraud.
This was understood from ancient times through such wisdom as expressed in the 10 commandments as one example among many cultures. Contained within is the understanding of natural laws at work among groups of individual, laws that if followed by individuals result in "self rule" and are allegorically referred to as "life" rather than the way that was allegorically referred to as "death", which was the violation of those Laws. Self rule is the opposite of the desire or need to to appoint a "king" (a symbol of centralization of authority) in any location on earth, the free seek a "king" within themselves to rule over and subjugate their own "animal" tendances to prey upon their fellow man. These laws were well understood by some of the deist founders of America. Practical human history has repeatedly demonstrated that centralization of power will invariably attract those individual who have no self-mastery over the tendency to prey upon others to obtain a living. Such individuals will invariable gain control of "health, education, and welfare" as means to their own selfish ends.
Someone who has learned and understands how to live does not need or want a "government" to "provide" for "health, education, and welfare". There is no actual possibility of a "social safety net" other than the free-will moral gift of a charitable, free, well educated, and prosperous people. Anything other than than this will set into motion the natural dynamics tending towards centralization of power, coercion, corruption, inefficiency, dependency, and lack of development of individual character. The very idea of a "social safety net" being provided by centralized authority is absurd to someone who understands the laws of nature. Any attempt to do so leads to the opposite of the stated goal. That is HISTORY!
The recent collapse of the Soviet Union and the eminent collapse of Socialist Europe and semi-Socialist America are the latest examples that prove that nature cannot be confounded. Health, education, and welfare are not things created by "government" out "there" but "government" inside ourselves. Health comes from healthy living habits, not from some expensive unsustainable form of health care that attempts to postpone the consequences of an unhealthy life style. Your "government" seeks to steal resources from those who obey nature so that those who violate natural law can be temporarily shielded from the natural consequences of natural law. And what of centralized authoritarian education systems that invariable fall prey to the corrupting influences of those who choose to live by force and deception, who invariable will corrupt education to suit their selfish life destroying goals? This is why the more powerful a government gets that more hostile it will become to free amd independant education such as home schooling.
Any thing which would aid a centralization of power such as a "Tobin" tax, or nationalization of central banks moves civilization in the opposite direction to a prosperous society that must come from a free and "moral" self governing people. World trade, any trade, depends on the simple principle of voluntarily exchange of free people without force or fraud. We already have a "orderly world monetary system devoted to the rapid expansion of world trade", it is called silver and gold (contrary to "fiat" money, which is a tool for deception and theft), and/or giving something of genuine value for something else of genuine value. Issues such as security, contract enforcement, and adjudication of disagreements are best left to free people who choose to express how these issues will be handled though actual contracts.
Mortgages are a special situation because they were founded upon a lie to begin with, in that the fiat money bank loan was fraud in the inception, the ultimate enabler and source of "funding"- the FED was fraudulent when the true nature of fiat money is properly understood, and the political system that sought to reward with housing those who could not govern themselves but could politically vote for those who choose to live by theft was itself a criminal conspiricy. It is a complex subject as there are "wrongs" on both sides of the issue of the mortgager and the mortgagee.
The civilization we see around us must and already is going "the way of Rome" and is in the midst of a natural collapse consistent with the laws of nature. This Earth is a school house, and we will keep relearning the same lessons until we do finally choose to live again according to natural law. Please choose the free choice of self rule, life, liberty, property, and the respect of others life, liberty, and property so that you can move on to bigger lessons that follow those basic ones!
Hello also,,,Voluntary Exchange,,
Wonderful counterpoint,,,, I might consider it fractionally,,,Practical implementation of the LVM / Chicago school...Utopian dreams ,,reminds me of a life continuously in the month of May..Gilly flowers along the hedge rows.
Cointreau sipped slowly with strawberry nectar..
We all live in dreams of what should be...
I think it's quiet now...but for an eyewitness account of the fighting tonight, see:
http://www.facebook.com/MichaelYonFanPage?v=wall&story_fbid=122111541143267
Frankly I don't see how the situation would spill over to other Asian countries. This crisis is purely a domestic affair and nobody else in the ASEAN really cares. It's Thailand... this stuff is normal.
Here in thailand the going rate for a murder contract is said to be 10000 baht (300 dollars) so you can imagine how much war Thaksin can buy with the billions of dollars he got away with when he jumped bail on his corruption conviction. The upcountry issan poor and Thaksin's fellow chinese from the north have enough motivation to see things through to the end, whatever that may be. Our country has been lucky througout its history but maybe now our luck is running out. Of course, this is all about the coming end of the monarchy, and who will be able to seize the power his respect commanded all these many years. The problem is that the Thai people are like seagulls who fight for scaps of food on the beach. We are unable to cooperate socially to divide the scraps so we spend eternity fighting over scraps until the scraps are scattered and no one gets much of anything at all. We are so busy coveting the biggest share of scraps that we never seem to notice how beautiful is the beach.
On the financial side, I guess we are going to hell in the short term. Expect the islamists waging jihad in the south to step up their efforts to take a bigger share of the land, further north. Maybe Cambodia will move on some of the east. Vietnam may lure away some of our foreign investors. Then there is the real chance the country may split into north and south. Personally, I would not mind that as I am from the south and hate seeing my taxes go to the north, trying to placate the red shirt hoards with cheap loans that they religiously default on, and to build roads and bridges the red shirts send mobs to block so they can get more government loans.
I dont see any reason to keep any assets here presently. Get out now and wait to see what happens. Eventually once its clear who will survive and how it all sorts out it will be easier to see which stocks to buy for long term dividend growth. No matter how bad it looks here, it always gets better before it gets worse again. And never forget; this is thailand - anything can happen here.
No gunfire in the streets of Hong Kong yet. Mid-Levels is sleepy; Kowloon, quiet. No evidence of hand-to-hand combat in Central. Negative real interest rate torpor and lack of the pretense of democracy belay any physical manifestations of inner conflict. BKK is scary, but a million miles away.
Of course not, Mongkok is where the action is:
http://clarkkendayandnight.blogspot.com/2005/02/mongkok-sauna-report.html
The current battle in Thailand has about as much influence or spillover effect in the rest of Southeast Asia as a street fight between Chelsea and Liverpool supporters would have on the US State of Arizona. It has a similar degree of influence on other "people vs. TPTB/Bilderbergers/Bankers" anywhere else in the world, and for anyone to suggest otherwise is spurious.
While in broad strokes one might call it a class struggle, in point of fact it is particularly and exclusively a "Thai" thing. Former and ousted PM and billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, who is reportedly funding and directing much of the protest, is a petulant and greedy child whose goal might simply be to get some sort of revenge by causing as much disruption as possible in the country. He may harbor a dream of one day returning so that he can resume his rape of the country's wealth---which is standard operating procedure for a Thai leader---but his support for the movement has nothing to do with a belief in democratic ideals. His hold on power---before the coup that toppled him---had everything to do with the support, verbal and financial, he gave to rural leaders, who then were able to deliver countryside constituents, analogous to how the LDP in Japan long relied on agriculture and the construction industry for support. During Thaksin's reign, he tossed just enough bread and circuses to the rural areas, plus BMW's to the rural chieftains, as needed to maintain his rule. Meanwhile, back in Bangkok, he did such deals as Thai Government loans to the government of Burma so that they could upgrade their telecommunication system in a contract with Shin Telecom, a company not-so-coincidentally owned by Thaksin Shinawatra. He also arranged a sweetheart deal by arranging to have the Singaporean investment group Temasek purchase---from his children---an interest in his Thai holdings that saved Thaksin more than a billion dollars in taxes. It is unlikely the Red Shirts are even fully aware of his shenanigans, much less supportive of it.
Politely speaking, the Red Shirts are not the brightest lights on the planet, and do not have the same understanding nor appreciation of the concept of democracy that some non-Thai external supporters might imply. Most are rural farmers or small business owners, who own some land, a house, and a pick-up truck. What happens generally in Bangkok, no matter who rules, has little direct impact on their daily lives. The battle is an "us vs. them" sort of thing, with ideology a very distant second, with the key difference---other than the different geographical origins of the two sides---being shirt color. To make it more than that is to ascribe motivations on the Thais which simply do not exist. Once the battles start, victimhood takes hold and passion for the cause is increased, though still lacking a real ideological core.
The only possible repercussions it might have in a geopolitical sense is that during the crisis the government might take its eyes off of the long simmering battle in the south between Thai Moslems and Thai Buddhists, the former supported by Jama'ah Islamiya, an affiliate of al Qaeda, and seeking independence from Thai rule to set up an Islamic state. So far there has been no effect.
++ chindit
I see geopolitical tension coming from HRH self-sufficiancy program. The Thai FM was invited to DC to explain how this wasn't threatenning to globalization, an ever bigger pie, mmmm.
Thailand is blessed with fertile soil, water and tropical growing conditions. The people are industrious. Do you see how fast those barricades went up? People above talk about tourism yet Thailand is the world's leading rice exporter - Jasmine rice.
My solution is that the Thai media and education systems explain to all the Thais the true costs of Globalization. If you strive for the McMansion are you happier in your aircon then sitting in the breezes by the river? That's the question that has to be asked.
Look how the program is working out for the West right now. Thias would be shocked to realized that now, in the West it is not uncommon for people to never know their neighbors. Globalization destroys culture and community everywhere. What fragments of Thai culture would remain compatible with Globalization?
Sense of community. You really hit on something there, Bringin It. I reside in one of your neighboring lands, and oddly, in spite of a degree of development that puts this place somewhere around turn-of-the-century America (albeit with cellphones), neighborhoods have a feel that remind me of growing up in small town America long before we all got so hellbent on outdoing the neighbors we don't even know. Yes, I am lucky to have a choice, but if presented with the full reality of what "development" would bring them, many people here would choose to remain as they are now.
Somewhere, there is a balance between growth for growth's sake and intellectual stagnation. Hope we find it someday.
outstanding
thank you
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