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Bank Of America Sees 10% Market Downside After Uptrend Breakdown, Says To BTFD

Tyler Durden's picture


BofA's chief chartist Mary Ann Bartels chimed in on last week's market correction, in which as many observed, the market briefly dipped to unchanged for 2011. As Bartels points out, with the August uptrend now breached, and various technical supports taken out, there is a possibility for another 10% drop in the broader index. Of course, it wouldn't be a Bank of America report if the conclusion was not the one and only permitted one: BTFD.

From BofA:

S&P closed below 1270 on higher volume - oversold yet?

Yesterday was not a 90-day down day for the US equity market, but is was a day where the S&P 500 closed below 1270 support on expanding volume. Several short-term indicators, the McClellan Oscillator, 10-day TRIN, and the 5-day put/call ratio (side bar), are oversold. In fact, TRIN was above 3.0 yesterday, which is most oversold reading since the August and November 2010 lows. A short-term rally is possible (S&P futures up overnight), but the difference between now and November/August that the S&P breached support on higher volume suggesting a deeper pullback. In August and November 2010, supports held.

Our theme is the same – we see pullbacks as buying opportunities. Next support is 1220-1170. A pullback that holds above or near 1220 would represent a successful test of the December 2010 breakout above those highs, which would be bullish for the US equity market intermediate to longer-term. There is no technical evidence to suggest an end to the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009. Resistance is 1350-1375. Our target on the S&P 500 remains 1400.

We once again reiterate our conviction that any attempts to predict headlines are foolish for short term trading action, while the only variable for the long-term direction is whether or not there will be a QE3. If yes - the dollar destrution will continue meaning nominal stock prices will rise. If not - watch out below.


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Tue, 03/22/2011 - 12:39 | 1086264 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

i will listen and BTFD, just as long as we can put a bullet in Mary Anns head if she is wrong....i mean there should be some consequence if she is wrong ! otherwise whats risk in always saying BTFD

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 12:42 | 1086280 Biff Malibu
Biff Malibu's picture

who would've thought technical analysis is such a dangerous job!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:11 | 1086653 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

i think miss bartels analysis is excellent. why haven't we heard more from her?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:50 | 1086840 redpill
redpill's picture

Wow, BTFD, what a unique and new strategy, thank you Mary Ann.  You make me so happy about all the taxpayer and Fed-printed monetary freebies that your crappy a-hole bank employer has sucked out of the veins of the American people.

And keep up them ATM fees, pricks!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 12:38 | 1086269 The Aviator
The Aviator's picture

Lets keep the viral campaign going!

Crash JP Morgan, Charge Silver!!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 13:31 | 1086456 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

The only dip I'm buying is Sprott's Physical Silver Trust (PSLV).

Not toxic bank stocks.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:00 | 1086600 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

Is that what Cramer says?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:00 | 1087412 Cvillian
Cvillian's picture

Today, yes. Tonight, no. C'mon man!

I heard a guy say on the train the other day, "man, we're screwed if they keep up that qualitative teasing..."

Truer words have never been spoken.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:10 | 1086659 metastar
metastar's picture


Tue, 03/22/2011 - 12:40 | 1086273 themiestro
themiestro's picture

She makes me want to puke..... and I don't even know if she is ugly.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 12:43 | 1086288 themiestro
themiestro's picture

Just googled an image of her..... puke^2

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 12:43 | 1086276 Dingleberry Jones
Dingleberry Jones's picture

Speaking of BoA, anything more happening with the Anonymous leak?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:01 | 1086595 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

Mozillo has been sedated.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 18:15 | 1087635 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

Been wondering the same thing myself.  Incase you need some BOA info to tie you over...

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 12:44 | 1086282 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Well, if the criminals in charge of the Blight on America bank say buy 1170 on the S&P, who could argue it?  I mean if you need criminal advice in a rigged and corrupt market, the Blight may just be the best source of info.

Which means you should sell the piss out of S&P 1300...which curiously, "the market" keeps treating as if it were plague.

Hmmmmm?  The only thing to ask before you act is...which nation is now just bursting into flames?  Oh...and the other only thing to ask is just how fucking stupid are the morons pumping casual dining stocks in the midst of this cluster flock of freakin' black swans?

And where is my damn Valium!


Tue, 03/22/2011 - 12:45 | 1086286 firstdivision
Tue, 03/22/2011 - 12:45 | 1086289 Ari Gold
Ari Gold's picture

If equities do continue down, capital flows will continue to go to the CHF and JPY in a much greater % than to the USD.  If flows are to go to the USD, we will need to hear some tightening language out of the peanut gallery.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 12:47 | 1086301 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

IMHO as long as we don't know the "faith" of QE3, there won't be much going on but sideways, in 1%-2% swings. Oil being also manipulated, makes no sense trading! Downside, what downside with POMO each and every day?!?!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 23:04 | 1088546 bluebare
bluebare's picture

The panic-inducing downside that justifies QE3, of course. 

STFD, BTFD.  Do the Double Dip. 

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 12:55 | 1086328 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Bankofamericacountrywidelynch sucks

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:03 | 1086619 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

right away nancy

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 12:54 | 1086329 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

P.S.  We need you to bid up stocks another 15 or 20% so we don't implode... so be a sport and BTFD.


Ben Bern... err.. Mary Ann.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 12:56 | 1086337 99er
99er's picture


Long Bond catches a bid.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 13:01 | 1086346 random shots
Tue, 03/22/2011 - 13:07 | 1086385 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

Now that's funny. 

I really wonder what it would be like to work in an environment where my decisions are virtually consequence free and get paid to make brainless momentum calls that I don't actually have to trade on.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:02 | 1086615 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Momentum chaser is accurate. She has appeared with none other than the "Fast Money" shark pool on several occasions.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 13:08 | 1086387 LostWages
LostWages's picture

I bought the fucking dip and the tortilla chips.  Getting so tired of popcorn while watching this slow motion trainwreck.

Beware of the book-talkers who ignore the huge headline risk that is present.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 13:18 | 1086405 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

When all the experts agree......

I posted this last week, but here it is again...from UBS last week:

US equity markets: A human, not a market tragedy

• First and foremost, our hearts go out to the Japanese people
and those affected by the horrors of the past week. From a
global markets perspective, however, while risk appetite has
clearly waned, we believe the overall economic impact will be
• Japan accounts for less than 10% of global GDP and direct S&P
500 earnings exposure to Japan is likely less than 2%. A severe
recession in Japan – which is not our base case – would reduce
our 2011 global GDP growth forecast of 3.8% by just 0.2 - 0.3
percentage points.

•Our 1,350 S&P 500 target is based on the midpoint of our
expected P/E range of 12-14 times our 2012 S&P 500 EPS
estimate of USD 104. With the S&P 500 now trading closer to
the bottom of our valuation range at 12.3 times next year’s
earnings, we recommend buying the current 5% dip.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 13:19 | 1086410 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

They need greater fools to keep the ponzi rising.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 13:18 | 1086416 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Short the dump.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 13:26 | 1086431 American Dissident
American Dissident's picture

S H O C K I N G Better late than never aye pledges.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:05 | 1086625 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

eye patches for all!!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 13:28 | 1086439 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

Some opposition lawmakers told the Diet committee that the government should make the Bank of Japan purchase long-term bonds directly from the government and help support public finances, a measure that the Public Finance Act permits only in exceptional cases.

Sound Familiar ?


Tue, 03/22/2011 - 13:30 | 1086453 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

I think "BTFD" should be added to Websters dictionary.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 14:07 | 1086634 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Not there yet, but on the way, no doubt -- to at least the "Collegiate Edition."

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 13:37 | 1086484 max2205
max2205's picture

"another 10%"???? we're not even down 5%.....

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 13:39 | 1086499 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Clairvoyant: Drudge reports Dallas Federal Reserve Chairsatan Richard Fisher says the USA is on the path to insolvency, "Tipping point."

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:02 | 1086920 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

This line: There is no technical evidence to suggest an end to the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009.

Actually means: I have no fucking idea what I'm talking about except that we're in the middle of a bubble melt-up inside a SECULAR BEAR MARKET. In the meantime, buy some iTunes for your stupid fucking iPod, stock up on Applebee's coupons and BUY THE FUCKING DIP YOU FUCKING IDIOTS (BTFDYFI) until the plumes of radiation from Japan's meltdown engulf the world and it all goes up in flames.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:08 | 1086943 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Sorry, bulls.

Cramer just sealed your fate, like so often in the past, with his epic(ly wrong) calls (remember GOOG to $1000 in '07?):

03-22 14:47: Netflix is worth double the current price, Jim Cramer says on CNBC

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 15:22 | 1087005 Northeaster
Northeaster's picture

Over $600 Million insider sells in less than 2 hours:


Just some housekeeping I'm sure.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 21:42 | 1088228 Dexter Morgan
Dexter Morgan's picture


Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:31 | 1087523 john-zh
john-zh's picture

Sorry, what does BTFD stand for?

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 18:14 | 1087630 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture
Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:44 | 1087561 Nnthnt1
Nnthnt1's picture

why does Zerohedge keep doing this? Censoring all good predictions, taking only the bad ones. Even if the prediction is coming from the biggest load of shit-bank in the world. Bank of America, c'mooon. TBTF crippled shitpile of shit-'bank'.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:45 | 1087565 Nnthnt1
Nnthnt1's picture david einhorn at Charlie rose!!

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 17:53 | 1087585 SilverBaron
SilverBaron's picture

I went into the BofA this morning and they only had one teller working. (usually 3 or 4)

There was one guy in a suit standing behind her watching everything she did.  It reminded me of the nazi guy in Schindlers list timing how fast the Jew could make a hinge.

I asked her if they were missing some people or if they had laid everyone off and she just gave a very nervous sounding giggle.

There was a big line of people waiting and that dickhead just stood there watching her.  I was thinking that if they really cared about their customers that asshole would open another terminal.  He's probably too good to do that kind of grunt work.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 18:22 | 1087645 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

At some point BAC and Citi will go bust to zero imo and be taken over the the Uber Banks who control the world----Goldman Sachs and JPM.

Tue, 03/22/2011 - 22:56 | 1088498 yxhlhq
yxhlhq's picture

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Wed, 03/23/2011 - 06:54 | 1089106 ivars
ivars's picture

You can buy the dip at DJIA 10500 but beware to SELL in June at 11500 before stocks go down from July 2011-March 2012 and beyond. See February 6th chart which predicted the dip, but also predicts second recession in the USA in q1 2012 and decline in stocks prior to that:

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 13:26 | 1091034 eureka
eureka's picture

Every single M.A.B. prediction of the past year has been wrong - i.e. stocks went down later and less than she predicted.

Since the Little Chair-Satan and the Big Wall-Street-Satans possess unlimited fraudulent tools, such as raising bank dividends when stocks tank "due to international distractions", the only events which may now tank stocks are strategic, creative destruction scenarios envisioned by people like Stephen Lerner and Max Keiser - to crush JP Morgan Chase.

To arms, brothers of freedom. Crush all the Too Big To Fail banks.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!