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Bank Of America's Ethan Harris Explains The Birth Death Adjustment

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yesterday Zero Hedge pointed out that in addition to the 54,000 NFP number missing every single economist estimate, another very troubling statistic was that the BLS added some 206,000 "jobs" courtesy of its monthly birth/death adjustment: numbers which tend to be added on a monthly basis and then subtracted (especially during periods of economic contraction) in one annual benchmark revision which is largely ignored by everyone. In fact, as Peter Tchir pointed out, over the past 4 months, the NFP has added 752k jobs, of which 610k have been birth death jobs. B/D has added 271K jobs YTD in 2011, 510K in 2010, 585K in 2009, 825K in 2008, 883K in 2007, 1002K in 2006, etc, in in the last decade has never once subtracted from the full year tally, which would subsequently be revised lower. You get the picture. Well, yesterday, Bloomberg's Tom Keene sat down with Bank of America chief economist Ethan Harris, who just like every other Wall Street economist has been clueless on the direction of the economy in 2011, and asked him to explain just what the B/D model is, why it exists, and whether it represent data manipulation. The relevant segment begins just over 5 minutes into the clip below.

 

 

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Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:21 | 1339995 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Ima adjust my package and describe that because it has about the same relevance to the real world of employment

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:57 | 1340188 flacon
flacon's picture

What the hell is the matter with that old man's voice? He sounds like Chrissy Matthews but on steorids.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 23:40 | 1340558 dkny
dkny's picture

A bigger problem is the shaky camera method they decided to use to broadcast business news - makes you think Jack Bauer might jump from behind one of those monitors. That, and the preference of showing charts by pointing a camera at another screen for the fuzzy effect.

I guess they figured they need to make biz news more exciting and engaging.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:24 | 1340001 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

He said "soft patch".

Seems to be meme.

Is this something like dry spell ?

 

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:24 | 1340012 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Probably just a transitory period until the masses understand the brilliance of the Fed's policy adjustments and spend money they don't have for things they don't need again.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:27 | 1340117 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

I am agreeing with soft Patch. 

The question is "how soft?".

I am thinking "quicksand".

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 22:49 | 1340480 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

"quicksand" economy - pretty good. I like it.

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 11:37 | 1341172 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

The more that you thrash around trying to get out, the deeper you go.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:21 | 1340002 Roaming Uranus ...
Roaming Uranus Looking For Klingons's picture

TPTB will continue to speak jibberish as long as we let them.  The birth/death model is used as much as possible to hide the truth.  When you claim that there are 700k new jobs and 600k are due to the birth/death model, then anyone awake knows exactly what is going on............................

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:22 | 1340003 Racer
Racer's picture

And another question.. which I have asked many times before to various people and got pathetic replies (not ZH of course)... why does the 'market' take any notice of 250 to 500 telephone call responses to CONsumer sentiment??

 

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:24 | 1340010 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

Forget about Fukushima.

 

Those 350 consumers, boy, they make world go round.

So you better don't mess with them, cause they are key, man !

 

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:22 | 1340005 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Total softball question, unbelievable, yet so believable. Nothing about year end adjustments...Douchebags the both of them.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:26 | 1340008 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

You put your birth foot in,
You put your birth foot out;
You put your birth foot in,
And you shake it all about.
You do the Hokey-Pokey,
And you turn yourself around.
That's what it's all about!

You put your death foot in,
You put your death foot out;
You put your death foot in,
And you shake it all about.
You do the Hokey-Pokey,
And you turn yourself around.
That's what it's all about!

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:45 | 1340047 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

luv it Bugs! +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:29 | 1340015 Cocomaan
Cocomaan's picture

You got a shout out, Tyler. Be careful.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:26 | 1340018 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Ethan is running scared. (ETHAN should be planning a summer vacation).

 

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:27 | 1340021 10044
10044's picture

2 keywords here:

-assumption

-Tyler Durden

LOL

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:37 | 1340031 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Run hard COPPER! TYLER is spoton! Oh did I miss a SPOT?

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:30 | 1340022 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Hey check out the (XLF) .

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:33 | 1340023 XRAYD
XRAYD's picture

Later in the program, Keene talked with McKee of Bloomberg, who disputed Tyler's computations. He said that BLS adds the birth death estimate to an unadjusted/seasonal number whereas ZH had added the birth/death to an "adjusted" number - or something to this effect, implying that ZH was wrong!

 

Would appreciate some more analysis of this to get a grip on what this number actually means, and whether it is accurate or useful. Ethan said in the video that BLS has been trying to get it right for years - evidently without much success!

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:20 | 1340105 Arius
Arius's picture

what is there to know? government statistics says it all...to quote Mark Twain:

"the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and government statistics."

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:22 | 1340110 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

I encourage to research your own question since it makes no sense.  Try Google.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:38 | 1340147 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

From http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm. Note that there are TWO components to the B/D model, one of which IGNORES the "deaths". This number is not published or reflected anywhere...

    http://www.bls.gov/images/gray_round_bullet.gif); color: #333333;">
  • Earlier research indicated that while both the business birth and death portions of total employment are generally significant, the net contribution is relatively small and stable. To account for this net birth/death portion of total employment, BLS uses an estimation procedure with two components: the first component excludes employment losses from business deaths from sample-based estimation in order to offset the missing employment gains from business births. This is incorporated into the sample-based estimate procedure by simply not reflecting sample units going out of business, but imputing to them the same trend as the other firms in the sample. This step accounts for most of the net birth/death employment.
  • The second component is an ARIMA time series model designed to estimate the residual net birth/death employment not accounted for by the imputation. The historical time series used to create and test the ARIMA model was derived from the UI universe micro level database, and reflects the actual residual net of births and deaths over the past five years.
  • The net birth/death model component figures are unique to each month and exhibit a seasonal pattern that can result in negative adjustments in some months. These models do not attempt to correct for any other potential error sources in the CES estimates such as sampling error or design limitations.
  • Note that the net birth/death figures are not seasonally adjusted, and are applied to the not seasonally adjusted monthly employment estimates to derive the final CES employment estimates.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:38 | 1340034 Roaming Uranus ...
Roaming Uranus Looking For Klingons's picture

Coco, you also had a shot out.......be careful not to step in your own mess.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:41 | 1340041 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Good point URANUS! Never catch a falling ( KNIFE)!

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 01:19 | 1340663 Falling-Knife
Falling-Knife's picture

You got that right!

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:40 | 1340042 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

ZeroHedge shout out on Bloomberg! it's about time!

 

on the down side.. doom and gloom are going main stream! Oops?!

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:55 | 1340071 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Bloom Berg is pathetic. I want the Black Screen back!  

  Yen Cross

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:08 | 1340092 Roaming Uranus ...
Roaming Uranus Looking For Klingons's picture

Yen Crossover, you are a black screen.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:17 | 1340100 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I don't recall an invitation? Nor do I want one.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:33 | 1340139 Roaming Uranus ...
Roaming Uranus Looking For Klingons's picture

Crossover, dont be mistaken, as this is no invitation.  But if you want a shot at the title, then bring it and I will box your ears.  I will leave your ears bloody and tarnished for life.  That is what I do to fools like you.  Thank you very much -- punk.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:55 | 1340177 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Any ideas for the Sunday open GOD? AKA URANUS.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 20:01 | 1340191 Roaming Uranus ...
Roaming Uranus Looking For Klingons's picture

None.  Just stay heavy in metals and roll into FAZ when the banks rollover.  Coming soon....

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 20:24 | 1340224 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 No geo- political thoughts? No Bond spreads?merger talks and q2 filings? No Fed and ECB talks? That is just the tip of the ice burg! ( PUN INTENDED)

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 09:22 | 1340999 Tater Salad
Tater Salad's picture

Nice work on Roaming Yen, he's all show and no go...besides he's so brilliant he found it necissary to buy a farm in Argentina for the pending "heat" that's coming.  Sounds like UFO's to me, many sightings, just still looking...

Hope he doesn't "box my ears", sounds like a scary dude!

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 12:25 | 1341247 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Another "ear boxer"! This one seems new to the game.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:25 | 1340112 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

ZeroHedge shout out on Bloomberg! it's about time!

 

Give this classic a listen

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/Markets/Analyst_Calls/vrT.qGWIoYPk.mp3

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 18:48 | 1340054 philgramm
philgramm's picture

Sorry if someone has posted this already.  One of the best Jim Rickards interviews in a long time.

 

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/6/4_Jim_Ri...

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:43 | 1340070 knowless
knowless's picture

it blows my mind that the name of a fictional charector who led an anarchist uprising with a plot to literally demolish the worlds banking centers in a primitivist push to wipe out all debt records was used as a pseudonym by an anonymous blogger who is now being talked about in the MSM.

always liked palahniuks books.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:01 | 1340074 Roaming Uranus ...
Roaming Uranus Looking For Klingons's picture

Knowless, learn how to spell Chuck Palahniuk, then speak/type your jibberish. 

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:43 | 1340163 knowless
knowless's picture

it has taken so long for someone to call me on my gibberish here. long overdue imo. i'll fix it just for you.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:58 | 1340181 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 And you called me a CHILD? Uranus?

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 20:35 | 1340242 Roaming Uranus ...
Roaming Uranus Looking For Klingons's picture

YC, now I am starting to get it.  But this is what I meant by some of the foolish comments that get posted.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 21:38 | 1340351 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Thank you! We will talk over the Pacific. P.S. I'm a young 45!

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 21:50 | 1340384 knowless
knowless's picture

do you mean hazardous or stupid? I spell checked so you wouldn't be offended=-)

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:06 | 1340083 phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

The BS from the BLS has been piling up for months now... its hard to sell the idea jobs are coming back to a public where 25 million are out of work and more people give up looking each month than find a job...

 

Patiently awaiting the riots and looting to start.... 

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:14 | 1340093 Greeny
Greeny's picture

There is plenty of Jobs at least in IT sector, which I

following, nearly as many as in 1990's. Yes, in USA.

Some of you, lazy punks, must be departed to Mexico,

or something, to feel better about US in comparison.

No Jobs? Riots? Move your Ass off the couch ones

and look around..

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:29 | 1340131 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Here's an idea for you Gandhi:  Learn English and then shut the fuck up.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:50 | 1340172 Greeny
Greeny's picture

Learn VB.net, Java, PHP, XML and how behave properly,

don't drink too much and stop smoking,

then maybe you going to get job, which

is better, than flipping the burgers in nearest MCDonalds.

And I'll be your manager than, even with broken English.

 

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 20:06 | 1340203 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

So your advice is that I should not drink and labor at grunt level programming until I can score a job as a McDonald's manager?

Now I feel guilty.  Good luck to you Gurdeep...

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:42 | 1340162 Roaming Uranus ...
Roaming Uranus Looking For Klingons's picture

Greeny, I cant even understand what you are trying to say.  Learn how to type/write/spell and then say something meaningful.  Until then, please shut up and sit down.  Thank you and have a nice night..........

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:58 | 1340190 Greeny
Greeny's picture

I said there is plenty of Jobs in Information Technology

sector in the USA. Help wanted.. NJ,PA,NY.. People who

cleaning houses around here making 700$ a week ( cash.)

No jobs in USA? Enough jobs, if you want to work, otherwise

you can also shut up. Thank you too.. Anyone who are not

happy move some place else, to Argentina or Russia,

then you will know what that means no Jobs.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 20:02 | 1340199 Roaming Uranus ...
Roaming Uranus Looking For Klingons's picture

Greeny, I am very happy here in the good ol USA.  Though I recently bought a ranch in Argentina, so when the riots start I can take my family and get the hell out until the shit is over.  Then I will come back and make a few bucks..............again!!!  If you work on your English, maybe I will hire you on the next go around.  I definitely need someone to clean-up the stables.  Thank you, come again..........

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 12:29 | 1341252 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

All hat and no cattle, I suspect. 

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 13:45 | 1341414 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Argentina is your safe haven???  Ok, well, good luck and all.

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 10:04 | 1341068 Arius
Arius's picture

you go Greeeny...tell it like it is!

tell them how much cost a gallon of gas in UK to those complaining about high gas prices...

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:21 | 1340099 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

 

They

Do

Not

Understand.

They seem unable to.  

There will be no undoing this because the fuel supply for the engine is being choked off.  They have spent 100 years in a world of "infinite" oil and they have no models and no training and certainly no PhD dissertations about what happens to a world of 7 billion people, fed with food that can only be planted and harvested with oil powered tractors, as that oil becomes . . . and let's get the phrasing here . . . not scarce . . . locally zero.

Yes, let's face the words for what they are.  There is entirely too much word game playing with "cheap oil" and "scarce oil" and "it's not running out".  It doesn't have to run out to kill you.  "Scarce" is an absurd word to use for this issue.  OIL IS ABSENT IN PLACES THAT NEED IT.  Demand is higher than consumption.

There is no fix for this.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:20 | 1340106 Chippewa Partners
Chippewa Partners's picture

On a Saturday night this isn't bad humor.

  

 

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:37 | 1340140 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Why can't they just say it:  "The birth death adjustment is simply feel-good total fiction."

B/D is unadulterated statistical garbage.  Numbers pulled out of thin air, and has never been subject to critical peer review.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:45 | 1340159 phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

On that note, so is the entire BLS unemployment number... is unadulterated statistical garbage.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 21:08 | 1340286 firefighter302
firefighter302's picture

+1

Government unemployed statistics are as about as accurate as government inflation statistics. 

Which is to say an absolute fabrication based on facts and real life factors.

"We must not look to government to solve our problems, government is the problem" 

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:37 | 1340141 mynhair
mynhair's picture

The Hopium must flow.

I predict 9.3% unemployment for the June number, and the pig Market up big Monday.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:50 | 1340176 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Let's forward ourselves to beginning of July.

Q2 GDP first look says south of 1%.  Maybe just barely positive.  U3 reads 9.3%, your number.

Now let's toss in WTI = $115, generating 0.6% headline CPI (7% annual).  How in hell does Ben do QE3 with inflation like that?  But he has to do someting with U3 clearly headed back up.

And how does Congress do fiscal contraction with GDP south of 1%?

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 21:32 | 1340334 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Pig market will be up ONLY when the whispers of QE3 start.  However, for this scam to work, the Fed has to be coy, and almost virginal, and will have to be dragged into it.  Watch, this is how it will play out. "Oh, OK - FINE - if you really want it, we'll give you more QE. There, there. . . . "

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 21:36 | 1340349 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Hopium Yes! +1

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:40 | 1340156 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Ethan Harris = fucking propagandist.

 Bullshit artist. Liar. Hopefully he gets a cell next to Ben.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 21:34 | 1340343 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

I think the lamp post next door will do. 

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:45 | 1340160 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

God I hate these fucking mouth pieces. The truth may set you free in the biblical sense but in the corpocracy speaking truth gets you fired.

"In times of universal deceit telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act"

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:45 | 1340169 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

We can't heal.... Analcyst talk for "We are fooked" - just speaky English please. ;)

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:45 | 1340170 walcott
walcott's picture

yes thank you, well mmmmm yeah, blah blah blah, mmmmm the soft patch...

what a douche bag.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2V1QB89CCz4

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:49 | 1340171 walcott
walcott's picture

mmmmm yeah, blah blah blah mmmmm the soft patch...

what a douche bag.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2V1QB89CCz4

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:52 | 1340179 Roaming Uranus ...
Roaming Uranus Looking For Klingons's picture

Jersey Joe Walcott, blah, blah, blah.  Just shut your pie hole, listen and learn.  You probably work for Pepsi in some shit hole graphics job...........

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 19:54 | 1340182 Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

Congrat's Tyler, Bloomberg TV pays attention )

Couldn't stand listening to their usual spin, same old same old BS - all hail more QE and fiscal masturbation, FED is independent, yada, yada. 

In the end it got interesting though, Investment in America graph which pretty much says all. Contrary to what some claim (WH) no one is investing in innovation and related capital. Why bother if you can use cheap labor overseas? Well one out to if he considers a long term perspective, unfortunately no one does. However as long as it continues, we will be facing the new 'normal.'

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 20:42 | 1340251 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Why do we even listen to the BAC and other bank analysts who have no credilbility. Amazing that these guys have no shame and come on shows and provide crap just to make a name.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 21:32 | 1340348 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Some one has to be an apologist for the TPTB - there is a long line of applicants for the positions. 

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 21:54 | 1340353 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture
Sat, 06/04/2011 - 21:55 | 1340354 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Classic.

Whenever the "knowledgeable" corporate, or government official begins to talk about how many years, or how many man hours, how technical the systems in place or such nonsense you know there is no other discussion point available that won't make the speaker out to be totally foolish, ignorant, disingenuous, or a combination.  The only step lower is the "with greater effort & resolve the situation may yet be successfully resolved" crap.  The current top examples of that are the Japanese nuclear/tsunami disaster and the GFC.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 22:48 | 1340476 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

How many times did this tool say recovery in 11 minutes? I counted 4 and stopped the video.

There is no "recovery", just a slow descent into a worsening economy.

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 23:00 | 1340495 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Someone needs to report (in headline form) the real numbers w/o these phony statisical adjustments. The phony adjustment should be buried deep in the article.  So 148,000 Jobs were lost last month. That should be the headline. How many people would still believe there is a recovery when jobs are being lost each month?

 

 

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 23:23 | 1340539 Hurdy Gurdy Man
Hurdy Gurdy Man's picture

"gonna bring this show to a grinding, nerd halt." - wish more people would do that

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 23:56 | 1340576 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Here's some news you can use: US economy - aside from DC and Wall St. - is now in freefall. 10 hours cab time today, in a "wealthy" west coast town...one (1) fare. As recently as 4 years ago, 20+/day.  An economy is, in essence, transactions. Transactions declining rapidly. 

Sat, 06/04/2011 - 23:59 | 1340587 Fancy Bear
Fancy Bear's picture

Props for the shoutout on Bloomberg!

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 00:19 | 1340615 SingleCross
SingleCross's picture

I'm in the process of starting a new small business. One of the first steps is to get an Employer Idendification Number (EIN) from the IRS.  This seems like a much better source of real data / real activity than the BDA. 

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 06:16 | 1340783 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

But people can create a business without ever employing anyone or making a penny.

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 07:13 | 1340801 bond trader
bond trader's picture

True, but at least its somewhat hard data and not a bureaucrat's guess.

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 00:46 | 1340642 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Ethan Harris didn't explain the b/d model, he endorsed the BLS use of said model. By endorsing the model, he didn't have to explain it, or defend it.

I mean come on, why would a sell side strategist, do anything as subversive as question whether or not this model may be used as a tool of manipulation (either implicitly or explicitly).

Congratulations Mr. Durden. It would seem that Tom Keene is quite a fan. Smart man the Mr. Keene.

 

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 06:22 | 1340786 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Are you suggesting that Bank of "America" MERRILL LYNCH (remember them) would not want the American public to know that things are bad?

Everyone knows bankers are the most forthright, honest, downright decent and morally adjusted individuals on the planet...just ahead of politicians.

 

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 01:26 | 1340666 MacGruber
MacGruber's picture

The real way to get to the bottom of this would be to know statistically what correlation there is between company creation during growth vs. recession. It's illogical to think that in an economy that has 44 million on food stamps, a severe constriction of bank lending, and a near zero savings rate that suddenly companies are going to form out of the ether. If anything recessions (or mythical recoveries) would amplify small company failures and reduce new company formation... But then I'm using logic, not a gov'ment strong suit.

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 02:03 | 1340688 honestann
honestann's picture

MODEST QE programs?  Sheesh, another Krugman.

Doofus alert.

Oh, and "investment in America"?  Anyone who decides to "invest" in the newly developing hyper-nazi germany is an absolute, complete, utter moron.  No wonder nobody wants to create a business here.

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 08:52 | 1340977 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

It's amazing to me that so many commented on this laughable clip but only honestann mentioned Ethan Harris' characterization of the Fed stimulus (that we know about so far) as "modest."  What a tool EH is, what a blithering appologist for the disinformation machine.

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 07:17 | 1340806 bond trader
bond trader's picture

What are the economist's rationale for adjusting the raw data? With the amount of analysis that occurs with every release it seems we could just analyze the fluctuations in the raw data. Now we have to analyze not only the raw data but also the adjustments.

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 10:11 | 1341071 Richardk888
Richardk888's picture
Bank of America Gets Pad Locked After Homeowner Forecloses On It

http://www.digtriad.com/news/watercooler/article/178031/176/Florida-Home...

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 10:07 | 1341073 Richardk888
Richardk888's picture
Bank of America Gets Pad Locked After Homeowner Forecloses On It

http://www.digtriad.com/news/watercooler/article/178031/176/Florida-Home...

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 10:37 | 1341110 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

most new business ventures are sent to planned parenthood..to be aborted per gov regulation and taxation. the real birth death adjustment: kill em all off..

hows this for job creation..if you own a business that provides 2  or more jobs  with a payroll equal to one owner's income: each owner then has no income tax.

but the employees pay all the taxes..yep kinda makes one want to start a business.. 

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 11:17 | 1341146 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

"healing the wounds in the economy"?

The economy is bleeding out.

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 11:21 | 1341153 Nevermind
Nevermind's picture

"I don't think we should assume they're wrong." Where's the data that they're right?

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 11:36 | 1341162 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Zero Hedge got a mention on the MSM.

Good job.

"Has QE 1, QE 1.5, QE 2, have they been inadequate ?"

"Pulling out (monetary) nuclear weapons" ?

"Misallocation of resources since 2001" ?

That would be all the military spending since 2001.

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 12:25 | 1341246 Ruth
Ruth's picture

Trying to bring some class to MSM no doubt, Kudos!   Tyler!

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 12:46 | 1341287 Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

To quote a showman:  truth...

 

"They know nothing,  the FED,  the bank economists,

the ANAL ysts under Sarbanes,  the Dodd Frank

Pols,   THEY KNOW NOTHING,   all they 

 

know how to do is lie.........throw them all out.

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 12:47 | 1341294 Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

its called JAPANATION,   the beaurocrats, the govvies, who ruined,

the mortgage and banking,  the printers, the spread the wealthers,

the crooks and incompetents,  all lie to the people

and say;   we meant well, we had good intentions,

just like the nukes in Japan, speaking with a

radiactive heart,   we did not intend to be incompetent,

we re from the Guvmint, we re hear to tax and spend and help you succker.

hOws that spead the wealth hopy changy working for ya sucker? 

Sun, 06/05/2011 - 13:27 | 1341384 Gimp
Gimp's picture

The bankers economist must take a special course in propaganda "keywords" to insert in all non-sensical interviews. I am mad at myself for listening to this crap..All together now let's do a review of our keywords for the sheeple:

recovery

improving numbers

misallocation

more capital needed

normal levels of investment

BLS numbers are finely tuned and accurate

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 03:32 | 1342662 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

When policy is geared for the crony capitalists, how do they expect small/new business to pick up? Also, wouldn't the job numbers improve based on 200k+ additions or do they die so fast that the number becomes a non-issue at which point reinforcing the irrelevancy of the data?

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