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Bank Failure Friday Chart Approaching Exponential Curve
Sheila Bair's favorite math equation these days:
where n = bank failures and x = tax rate
Compliments of The Chart Store via Barry Ritholtz
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuxtjzXwUVM
to infinity and beyond!
This could be a wonderful stimulus for displaced financial professionals. I'm serious, it takes an army to close all of these failed institutions.
We don't need to throw away these jobs. They can and should be re-purposed into cleaning up the mess that they directly/indirectly created.
There have been ex-mortgage bankers in DC who have found work cleaning up foreclosed properties for the past two years.
Do they supply their own cleaning supplies? Is there any heavy lifting involved?
First time on the new site
In order to post I have to answer the question
"17 plus ? = 38"
think you over estimate my intelligence!
But seriously, what would this graph look like if done by assets/liabilities value
I don't have the data on hand but its out there if you do some digging. By pure numbers of bank failures we're well under the Depression. But by assets as a percent of the banking system we went well past the Depression with IndyMac and WaMu. We already learned that one Lehman could do more damage than the hundreds of banks closed during the S&L debacle.
http://tinyurl.com/lgbgzj
What happened to gold today?
Dollar reversed and is off to the races (Treasury auction what?).
DXY made a yearly low overnight, but when the invisible hand hit the alarm clock this morning - the USD buying went nuts. Gold went back to its old pre-stockmarket-open dumpfest.
Yo, since you have such a close eye on the dollar. Do you think there will ever be any profit taking off these rallies that doesn't involve dollar strength? Wassupwitdat?
Of course an outright reversal of the equity markets would be whole different hill-o-beans, so i'm just asking in the context of this continuing rally.
Equality instead of "general" equation would be more appropriate, me thinks. Is there a chart on how many deposits were taken over by the FDIC instead of number of banks? That would do a better job on displaying FDIC stress.
off-topic, but what python is squeezing schitty banc this morning? someone is getting a forced cover or grew sick of the 100% neg rebate.
I was thinking the same thing - WTF?
The same python that's squeezing the economy, in general.
It's a FED pet and it goes by the name of Twin Peaks, aka Peak Oil & Population (Growth & Aging).
In the event of a cascading series of bank failures, the largest institutions have about $800 billion of funny money with which to buy up all of the failed banks and further centralize the monetary system.
making more and bigger TBTF's.
Welcome to the United States of Goldman Sachs...
Please remove any investment you may have prior to entry.
They need to put up a figure on "back stopped" deposits ...were't the chart Ms. Bair?
Guaranty Federal has been in limbo since June, apparently wanting the FDIC to take over. They've basically admitted that they are not a going concern. FDIC probably won't bail them out because Carl Icahn is an investor, but meanwhile they just sit there like a bit part in Shaun of the Dead. Makes you wonder if Bair doesn't want to or doesn't have the money to take them down.
To respond to a guy above, I work for a big four accounting firm and we have a contract to supply cpas to close down these banks. One of my colleagues recently went on a top secret mission to do the accounting around a failed bank. It's been a good boost for our business
....and
Glad to hear it. Fraud investigations are more stimulating though. At least to me.
Only $70 billion through 13? Chump change. Well the FDIC has plenty of headroom. THey have a $500 billion 'line of credit' with the Treasury.
Is that identity for exp(x) meant to be a joke? I don't really get it.
@Anon #16886:
(Posting anonymously while I await approval of my new user account...)
No, that's one of the well-known identities for the exponential function ... bankers may recognize this particular one as the "compound interest formula" - it expresses the fact that an (x * 100%) annual rate of interest, in the limit of continuous compounding, works out to exp(x) capital at the end of a year, for an effective interest rate of (exp(x)-1)*100%. For example, a 10% annual rate yields 10.517...% in the CC limit (assuming I did the calculation right).
If you multiply the (n)th-power polynomial out and fiddle with n, you can see that in the n -> oo limit (assuming you have infinite time, obviously ;), the product is just the Taylor series (about x = 0) for exp(x) in disguise, which is probably the better-know identity:
exp(x) = 1 + x + x^2/2 + ... + x^n/n! + ...
Cheers,
-ewmayer
I am sorry. This makes no sense.
Both sides obviously do not depend on $n$ (it is a tautology), so the displayed equation does not give any relation between $n$ (bank failures) and $x$ (tax rate).
Let's try this equation: Post above = sarcasm
Go SKF! Oh... wait...
There should have been 3 more on that list Friday night but I don't think the FDIC has enough people and ammo left to be in TX, IL, and AL at the same time or before FY 2010...
A Wisconsin bank got another 'extension.' The Fed gave them the ultimatum last year, with a generous deadline. Not even close to meeting it, even with the new deadline. No angel in sight.
Most likely going to be on the list Aug 28th.
fuck these banks, I stopped paying all my credit cards and loans, they can rot in hell... nothing but greedy sob's who brought this country to the brink, we need to flush them out and start all over! wait we have to save GS, these guys need their bonuses the most and don't forget the 100M from C Oil trader.
how about MI, 20+ unemployment... how the fuck are these MI banks staying alive....