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Bank Of Spain Issues Banking System Overview Presentation, Says All Is Well
You have reality, and then you have Central Bankers and their presentations. In a failed attempt to misdirect attention away from the crumbling Spanish banking system, the Banco de Espana has issued a 45 page presentation, "The Spanish banking sector: outlook and perspectives" which concludes that "The sector is resilient overall." We would be the first to drink that particular Kool Aid although we distinctly recall how comparable reports were being floated by the Greek National Bank about a month before NBG started its 70% price descent (a process culminating with the sick joke of JPM downgrading it from Buy to Sell a few days ago), and Greece itself ending up bankrupt only to be bailed out by the same central bankers who said all is good. Look for a flurry of Spanish bank upgrades imminently courtesy of your favorite conflicted Wall Street sell side analyst.
h/t john milton
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Nothing is more unpredictable than the mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.... Cicero.
If it takes 45 pages to basically say that everything is hunkydory...then you know for sure how things really are.
You will never have to defend your position if you are fine. Hot chicks don't have to tell people they are hot, rich people dont have to tell people they are rich, and companies that are doing fine don't have to either.
+1
I.E. socialists and progressives having to tell us that it is for our own good!
Well, that sure is a relief...right Ben?
I'm not looking at 45 pages of crap, if everything is so rosy then why is it going south so quickly...smells a lot like propaganda to me.
If he uses the word doubtful one more time....
Say what again!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snW3cM1KipQ
FYI only:
Sovereign TightenersEntity Name 5 Yr Mid Change (%) Change (bps) CPD (%) Italy 196.46 -9.21 -19.93 15.66 Norway 20.46 -8.28 -1.85 1.78 Chile 99.28 -7.96 -8.58 6.71 Spain 216.10 -6.90 -16.01 16.97 United States of America 37.83 -6.53 -2.64 3.21 Germany 38.74 -6.53 -2.71 3.31 Ireland 229.91 -6.47 -15.92 17.89 Argentina 1203.80 -5.13 -65.10 54.00
Fucking absurd. No general direction, and even in the face of all the problem with the Cajas [correct translation is "Crate"] you see this shit happening.
doesnt that just show how removed from reality the markets are? All rational risk assesment has been removed because there is the assumption that all is backstopped by central banks.
So while we know these fuckers are insolvent, everyone can act normally because the chances of one of them really defaulting is probbaly nil (for now).
Sure it does; but the derivatives market was never this irrational before. If I would have to say it; I would say derivatives market reacts to the news and new data much faster than other markets, it is often indicatory of future movements in bond market and equities. Recent behavior in the derivatives market is unlike anything i have seen before, with volatility exploding across the board; even indexes swing like a penny stock [which they should not since the components are picked carefully just to avoid such movements]. AAA debt extremely volatile [also unprecedented]. Something is afoot, what; I dont know yet; but this is not normal behavior for that market. Maybe the IMF announcement contributed to todays moves, but that is a massive contrarian bet. I will need to check the deltas when the trading closes, but it would not surprise me if both volume was non-existent and deltas [contracts deltas] are single digits.
"Sure it does; but the derivatives market was never this irrational before."
Agreed. On the other hand, derivatives being a true product of capitalism and market forces makes it rational for them to be the tool of default, destruction and re-birth.
Someone got to press the restart button, all hail derivatives !
p.s. Damn I ve got to back to work, or i'll become one of those financial moneys !
(so true by the way..monkey sees and monkey does /wants...)
hilarious stuff!
Yes you have reality, and you have central bankers, AND you then have Spanish central bankers.
Think of the toxic combination of the Spanish sort of "manana" attitude and a full blown liquidity and solvency crisis!
As GW said: "este chupador vas a bajar"
"You have reality, and then you have Central Bankers and their presentations."
"The last duty of a central banker is to tell the truth." --Former fed Governor Alan Blinder
Is there anything else to say at this point, really? It's all lies, half truths, propaganda, and fraud. The government, The Fed, mainsteam media, the ratings agencies.... What don't you people get? It's all lies. Why are we listening to liars, cheats, and thieves; let alone allowing them to run our country and economy? Even if it's for the first time in your life, I am begging anyone reading this to take a stand in anyway you can. Do something, do anything.
I don't believe you can handle the truth....
Well, the masses can't, anyway.
What do you expect them to say.........The truth???
okay i might get into trouble with this one:
I love the Spanish really, BUT casual lying is totally acceptable in Spanish society. What we would call outright lies, they would say is a little exaggeration. Getting one over on someone is not thought to be a bad thing, its like normal and everyone expect everyone else to behave the same way.
Other than that love the place, the people, the history, and the women are gorgeous :-)
CC,
"and the women are gorgeous"
And they know it............. Spain is truly unique.......
It's been where we were, and it's going, where we're going.....funny how history plays out, in different pages of time.
Well, it means the euro devaluation is rather near. They can't avoid it for two reasons:
a) Out of QE resources to support it, because Germans are more resistant to go all in with the printing press than most (GS & Co') expect & claim.
b) The only way to implement their budget cuts and prevent the economy from the plunge not seen since...(you name it) is through limiting the cheap Chinese imports and pumping up the EU exports.
And given the near 100% correlation between weak euro and falling S&P, I smell some serious profit (and blood) early in the summer.
Fundamentals & TA are irrelevant, it's all about correlation play of the trade desks. Unfortunately, long term benefits of all (including prop desks) are irrelevant as well.
The beauty of capitalism has always been its ability to destroy itself and be reborn. Let's get over it, & proceed with the final stage of the show (first stage was denial, QE, more denial more QE, more BS, more denial, more..) - destruction & rebirth.
I would disagree - it's all about suppy and demand, hence it's all about technicals. Anything that wedges up is asking to for a sharp fall.
Funny enough, QE can actually make a currency stronger. Remember, it's all about supply and demand. Right now, there's elevated perception of risk of being in EUR assets, as concequence, everyone is fleeing the assets as there are lack of buyers and larger and larger amount of holders are selling as the price drops below their comfort level. QE introduces buyers and hence decreases the perception of risk.
Just so that we're clear, I don't support QE strategies as I view it as patch job for a state of poor afairs over long period of time.
What I really meant, Fundamentals & TA are currently irrelevant. In the long run, let's say ten years fundamentals will always catch up with you and often bite you in the ass. TA is somewhat useful, I would say it's more useful in building the confidence level for your trade, than being a pure strategy driver for your trade (investment.)
If everyone is using the same TA tools, it becomes a group think, same as in the case when everyone views (ignores) fundamentals in the same manner.
QE creates liquidity and often inflation pressure. I don't see how abnormal future inflation or danger of such makes a currency stronger. The only reason $ is strong , everyone else is f. up to much higher extend. (unfortunately, it won't be for long given our pace of never ending bailouts).
p.s. Euro went up not because of QE by the ECB but because the direct intervention into the exchange market. Sell dollars (borrowed from the FED through SWAPS, etc) buy Euros and the short squeeze will ensure. However those do not always work, because it requires ultimate commitment by all sides.
Wouldn't it have been much easier to just quote movie lines:
Bank of Spain (as played by Han Solo)
People with a pulse (as played by Voice)
"Han Solo: Uh, everything's under control. Situation normal.
Voice: What happened?
Han Solo: Uh, we had a slight weapons malfunction, but uh... everything's perfectly all right now. We're fine. We're all fine here now, thank you. How are you?
[winces]
Voice: We're sending a squad up.
Han Solo: Uh, uh, negative. We had a reactor leak here now. Give us a minute to lock it down. Large leak, very dangerous.
Voice: Who is this? What's your operating number?
Han Solo: Uh... "
See, they could have saved 44 pages.
Jay
Wow they followed Timmy G's advice, I am sure a nice powerpoint presentation should solve all their problems.
I'm selling NBG NOV puts. I look at it as C at $1, was selling LEAP C puts like crazy, my only regret is not getting assigned.
All is well= sell
And the Iraqi defense minister informs us that the infidel is retreating and surrendering on all fronts...
This is the Mother of All Bank Analyses
Paging Kevin Bacon: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro
We know these clowns KNOW, we KNOW.............
I think the charade is for them to just keep making the big bucks, until their ran out of town, with a large stash.............
Like a CEO, know's the company's in the shi**er, and continues to sell the Enron sh*t to his HOSTS.While he collects & sells of his stock in the shi**er.
la la la la
The real view from the Spain trench:
- Bank of Spain is accused of being lazy and more worried about politics than tackling the problems in the financially sector (ie Cajas) [Current Governor of the Bank of Spain was a former member of the Government and still a member of the ruling party]
- The real estate bubble has not burst yet. [In downtown Madrid you still need to pay 5000 euros per sqm!!]
- The current unemployment rate is probably structural: most unemployed worked in the construction and real estate industries and there is still a long way for a full recovery in those sectors [probably till 2020]
- Quality of education has decreased in the last decade. The country does not have the human capital needed to compete in high-value added industries in the near future.
Best,
A Spaniard ready to emigrate
Spain for months and have been quiet and obfuscating in regard to their banks and their economy. They spoke out the loudest about bailing out Greece and saying that the EU should stand together, well du. A month back there was that rumor that Spain was needing 389 billion dollars and the Prime Minister came out and denied it, a rumor. When a person that high comes out and does something like that, it usually means that it's true and they where behind the scenes trying to get a bailout from the eye of the public. Then we found out last week that Spain owed 1 Trillion Euros to investors via bonds and loans. And now today it was breaking news that Spain's debt was downgraded from triple A to AA+. Moody's was first and the others will follow, they know whats up and they are getting everything in order to start the slow downgrade of Spain. If you thought the US housing market was hot, it was just as hot in Spain. Thats why you keep hearing about this bank being absorbed by another bank etc. etc.. They are trying to hide the losses and hope to find a bailout in secret or by investment.
I thought Portugal would be first, but it looks like Spain and then Portugal and Italy (they have been hiding like crazy) and Ireland. Followed by the Britain needing a loan.
Interesting EURO chart :
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1