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Bank Stocks attempting to get a "Party" going??
The bank stocks, especially the regionals choking on massive loads of commercial real estate loans are vastly outperforming most sectors right now. Why is that? Who knows, maybe the lack of lending assures that in 3 years, the banks will have no losses because they have no loans. Then all those free DDA deposits can be parked in risk free trades for a clean spread with zero risk?
Check out KRE today, it is getting stronger by the day:
And the big regionals are set up for a huge move..
Which way??
Perhaps it is the panicked fund managers piling whatever they have into whichever sector is going up. Selling anything and everything that is going down, such as gold, oil service, solars, and telecoms.
Because after the 2008 debacle, nobody, I mean NOBODY is going to risk any chance of taking a 50% hit in the XAU, OSX, XLB, etc. like last time.
I mean, those groups look extremely heavy....
Can't blame them, with the Euro getting bombed day in and day out with no relief in sight...
Still acting very heavy....
In the meantime, everyone is gunning MS and GS today, no doubt intrigued by their ability to crank up the Prop Desks any day now and start printing millions on a daily basis.
And don't forget the "Resilient Consumer" stocks like Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines, up 7% to a new 52-week high, acting about the same as most restaurant and leisure stocks.
For now, I doubt that the market will be able to get much traction unless some of the "reflation" sectors are able to pull up their jeans and shake off the "strong dollar" thing....
We'll just have to wait and see...
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large assets...?
+48
+2
Like I said yesterday. ZH TV, here we come. Love it. Now, back to my regional bank trade.
This rally may be last chance to get out.
FDIC and Uncle going broke...
http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/
yeah okay whatever...
Sigh...amazing set of naturals those...
until she gets older.
Still... dayum, how nice.
Jesus, what were we discussing? I could watch this, I mean read this all day. Very interesting take.
Think that might be a Mondrian on the wall in the bathroom?
You must be gay if you were looking at the wall in the bathroom. What the hell is wrong with you?
er...uh...that was supposed to be a non sequitur but I guess if you have to have it explained to you, 'mistakes were made'.
wow robo, you've really done this time. I don't even read the posts, a look at the pictures tells me all I need to know.
Now that is a screensaver all right ....
Got to love Lennar today. Down 5.5% out of the blocks, and now unchanged. Bounced back better than....well, if you've read this far, you already know.
Robottrader to my rescue. Was having a bad day today. Me likely long time that last chick!!!!
More of her. NSFW.
http://www.shaylarenphotos.com/
Wow, can't believe the consumer stocks. Utterly insane. No way the American consumer gets through this with consuming habits intact, yet retailers are trading not far from all-time highs.
i am speechless and that takes a lot.
is robo's page kinda like a trader's man cave?
oh hahaha! you crack me! it is nice having you around ;)
I check into zh throughout the day, but I wait on pins and needles around 4:15 for robo's posts
- Thag like cave
Bouncy bouncy bouncy bouncy...
It's freaking hypnotic...
Back to your charts Bernanke, you pervert!
Did I hear party? I think the banks are having short sales "One More Time", hence the momentum leaving almost all sectors into the banks. Here is to Making Money from both ends, one more time, woop woop! I can see Timmy and BS dancing....together.
Daft Punk - One More Time:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lH-0s0pRleg
Notice what's in the cleavage ? GOLD! Looks like Maria Bartiromo
Here's a multiple choice question. IYR was up 0.99% today (despite its largest component, SPG, going down -0.49%). The reason is:
(A) CB Consumer Confidence at 46 (far below consensus of 55)
(B) MBA Purchase Applications "fell a steep 7.3 percent in the Feb. 19 week to the lowest level since 1997"
(C) New Home Sales at 309k (far below consensus of 360k)
(D) "Auction of Five-Year Notes Weak" (admits CNBC)
(E) "Only a miniscule 3.6 percent [of those surveyed] describe jobs as currently plentiful with 47.7 percent (up 1.2 percentage points from January) describing them as hard to get."
To be honest, (A) and (E) were yesterday's news so I guess they don't count today.
Sheesh....
ESRX up 10% after hours.....
Robo,
I have noticed that on days when the dollar is up, bank stocks tend to be up as well, while typically the rest of the market is down. Also vice versa.
Thats one reason why I think the financials have been ranging nowhere for the last 6 months while the rest of the market continued to climb. I beleive financials will take their leadership position again, while the rest of the markets lag and range, just as the financials did, afterall they are the leaders are they not?
Others will disagree, but with steep yield curve and commitment from our gov. to not let banks fail, why would you not want to put your money behind the financial sector? Bernanke and Geitner have pretty much flat out said that they will not permit the financials to tank at all costs. (i.e. No interest rate hikes til next year...) .
Its a no brainer for me, been long the financials since April last year and sitting tight til I see otherwise.
I've traded and microscopically followed the banking sector most of my adult life. I'm not here to argue with you (I honestly hope you and everyone here does well trading) and won't get into bank details as I've presented many (not all) of my thoughts on banks on ZH for the past year.
I will simply say this: what is happening with the trading/pricing activity now of bank stocks is in my view one of the biggest Ponzis that I've seen in 25+ years.
I will add that I genuinely and sincerely hope that I am wrong as a healthy banking system is a critically important cog in the wheel of a structurally sound and functioning economy and I would love to see the USA economy improve.
+100
+1000
Robo,
I was checking out Tudor Investment's quarterly filings on MFFAIS (click on activity hyperlink at the top of 9th column) and activity at other top funds. Notice they accumulated lots of regional and big banks and was scratching my head trying to figure out why. After today's Fed testimony, we know why.
Well remember what Ben said - "After a considerable time has elapsed" . That does not mean he will reveal the names of banks tomorrow !! Actually he will never release them. wink wink..
long regionals short investment / money-center is the uber-basic barbell of the past 2 years now for, quite literally, every fund mngr in the space.
Could be they are being built up so that when the CRE bomb hits, and they tank, the market impact can be used to manipulate congress to pass another TARP-like measure.
15% of today's vol on KRE came within a 10 min spread between 10:55-11:05 EST.
Speaking of regional banks(although this one privately held), interesting lawsuits against OneWest (IndyMac) RE: FDIC money making scheme video
"A spate of recently filed lawsuits allege OneWest Bank is systematically hiking loan payments for struggling home loan borrowers and pushing them into foreclosure"
[url]http://www.whittierdailynews.com/news/ci_14457578[/url]
OneWest creepy motto : One Person at a Time
[url]http://www.owb.com[/url]
Trainer "knocked out" at California's Sea World !! Did Blackstone not buy out Sea World recently ? Did they (BX) introduce any new austerity measures ???
That is so insensitive, Anonymous. I can't believe that you...whoa...bouncy bouncy bouncy bouncy....What was I saying again?
'the banks will have no losses because they have no loans'
The Band of the Hand can only create a Potemkin demand.
To AM--horseshit. The banks hold plenty of toxic waste ready to explode at any given Swan. Mark to market may be gone but when there's nothing left to sell, it will be back because there will be no other option. And the TBTF problem? That will most likely change after the November elections. New Poll Marla: Last Bank Standing in 2012.
great poll topicality, Howard !
but gonna need some guidelines, else HCBK, FRME & insert-local-credit-union-here are the only ones 'obviously' & "legitimately" left standing (w/o the use of the infamous N word ~ nationalization)
Great commentary, Howard! Keep it rollin'.
Last banks standing. Sealy or one of the major safe companies.
Glad to see you back Howard.
Maybe you should look up the word Potemkin...
Not sure where I would be in disagreement with your rant.
The link originally penned in Feb 2009... and you disagree with what?
http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2010/02/band-of-hand-can-only-create-potemkin.html
What a cool web site... A+
I love this country.... Go Tyler ..
Dollar rally continues and the recent equity counter rally has finished.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0