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Banks and REIT's Gone Wild
Wow, what a day in the casino. Frantic traders trying to "make their year" are becoming even more keen on identifying where the fast action is.
Nobody wants to get stuck at a dead table. Money has to be working all the time. Today, all the Commodity Pai Gow tables were basically abandoned and all the chips piled onto the banks and REIT's, which pretty much bottlerocketed after a brief opening shakeout this morning.
No doubt, the Fembots managing the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle traders which are now in charge of billions in retirement assets were cracking the whip and telling the boys to get out of everything and start gunning the sectors "that were moving" today.
Here is a picture of one such Fembot, complete with the CNBC-issued red dress, equipped with ample breasts and a Monster Energy drink at the ready:
When will this run stop?
Maybe keep an eye on Citigroup and Google, both of which appear pinned in a tight trading range. Who knows? Maybe they will give us a clue.
Biggest mover of the day was MBI, the credit insurer. Not sure why it made such a big move today. Maybe I could guess about an upcoming press release?
"The bond insurer said Jenna Jameson was elected to the board and will sit on the audit committee.
Jameson is a former supermodel who was elected as a director to help the company expand its reach by insuring a wider array of credit products, soon to be released by various lenders:
- Cash For Clunker auto loans for the unemployed
- Interest-only Lap-Band financing for the overweight
- Breast enhancement and liposuction loans for the financial news channel anchorettes.
- Botox injection financing for Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve spokesmen."
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Dow rally for real? "Big money" thinks so: study
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE5735OA20090804
Love Train - The O' Jays
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvsAqkOhI48
Uh-Huh
Mutual funds are not big money but 'wrong' money.
They can't even beat their own index.
They can't even beat their own index.
i dont know should i laugh or cry at this one ...
Funny punchline, but mathematically speaking, is it possible for *everyone* to beat their average?
Stay tuned for the news from Lake Woebegon!
it is surprising regarding the REIT rally, but one can make a valid argument that they are cheap even at these levels. The CRE market is starting to open up and cap rates do not appear to be rising as much as most expected. Doesn't make sense to me, but people with serious money are willing to buy this stuff at low yields. There it is.
Perhaps the government is going pay out billions to utilize the monstrous CRE overbuild as homeless shelters.
Please, extrapolate on which valid argument you reference.
CRE is not opening up. I'm in it everyday and we are gettings loans pulled for all property classes. CAP rates are too low and even distress assets are difficult to fund w/ debt.
No good reason at all why reits were up today.
"Over the past month or so, I have been following the Fight Club brawl between Dennis Kneale at media goliath CNBC and Tyler Durden at indie blog Zero Hedge. In Round One, like a shocking incident of spontaneous combustion, Kneale went on a rant calling top indie finance blogs such as Zero Hedge a bunch of idiots who “live in their mothers’ basements.”
In Round Two, Kneale dishonestly represented an invitation to debate Tyler Durden on the air. After Kneale declined Tyler’s renewed invitation to debate in an objective third-party arena, we judged Rounds One and Two in favor of Zero Hedge."
Wall St. Cheat Street
You're not doing this right. These guys are used to cowing big powerful politicians. You're supposed to be scared. Just think of it like going to a plastic surgeon. You're supposed to listen to all their criticism and then buy whatever they tell you too. THEN YOU"LL BE BOOTIFUL!!
You'll never get along with these people if you keep getting this wrong!!!!
I told you, you could have made serious mint buying and shorting all the financial guarantors in the past year - MBI, ABK, MTG, PMI, RDN, AGO, etc. These things have a beta of 1000.
They are perfect for manipulation - complicated business models, heavily dependent on regulations meaning one good or bad rule change could prop up or obliterate their business models (and rumors of such can spike their stocks in either direction), low floats, etc.
They are in the shorting range now.
Excellent ! No bitter sarcasm & just enough prospect on herd stupidity, it's just what a doctor has prescribed.
I don't think you'll find institutional investors adding to their already underwater CRE postions. With sales per sq ft are declining how long do you think rents can hold up? It's just a prayer that hoping things turn around........that's not investing. Cap rates are rising more than the bozo's on the conference call are telling you. They are still diluting shareholders every quarter..........used car salesman.
you're a piece of work robo. thanks once again for your efforts of making sense out of the madness and delivering many laughs.
Kraft beats estimates, blah blah blah, but revenue down. I've seen this movie.
However, they have the current cnbc dot con headline and the picture of the box of macaroni and cheese simply says it all. could be a good screen shot for later robo....
Kraft missed on revenue? WTF? Are people not eating anymore?
same problem as P&G....consumers downgrading to store brands. P&G having major problems with their best seller, Tide.
Brawndo - The Thirst Mutilator! It's what markets want.
http://www.brawndo.com/
Its got electrolytes
The fundies may still look ugly for the financials (i.e. continuing loan losses, more commercial defaults, 11% unemployment rate, etc.) but for the next couple weeks to a month, you'd be nuts to try and short these things. UYG just busted through 200MA and has gone through an extended basing pattern for 3 months. Bottom line is that the charts don't lie. Just like it was on the way down, you have to respect it on the way up. Gotta buy on pull backs until we at least get to six handle.
As for tells, forget about C. It's in a permanent break-up mode at this point. The real tell is BAC. Look at how it's acting despite all the headline risk in the name.
There are a lot of clowns out there (not directed at you RT, I am guessing you can guess who I mean) that have missed this rally (in almost anything that moves) since March and are going to poo-poo any moves to the upside. These are the same simple minded idiots that missed the entire move up that started in 2003, after the 2000-2002 fiasco.
These naysayers will continued to be "bewildered and suprised" by the continued overall move to the upside. Eventually, they will come out of their bear caves and dip a toe in. That will be one of the first clues that and intermediate term top is near.
These dopes are pathetic with their contstant whining about the market moving in an unjustified manner. Citing any number of, what in their incapable hands, become useless indicators: valuation? momentum? Elliott? EMA? etc etc etc. None of it matters you dickweeds (Knealism), as you have missed a MONSTER MOVE, and continue to sit on your hands complaning everyday about why something that IS happening, SHOULDN'T be happening. Absolutely pathetic....I hope you don't depend on trading as your primamry source of income....if you do....you're doomed. Even worse if you are getting paid for offering crap advice to other idiots with a similar brainwave signature as your own
On a lighter note, options strikes in HURN have been expanded, offering "thrills and chills" for those that dare enter the House of Horror. Trader Joe is one of those open to experiencing this type of carnival ride. In other news, the Haunted House rides in USU and CIT have been very profitable to date.
Trader Joe, you make me ill. barforama.
You want to see a dickhead, look in the mirror.
I totally missed this one.
I shop at Whole Foods regularly, and the store has been basically dead for the last 9 months.
However, I remember it taking off from the lows about 2 months before the March bottom, and it did not go down with the rest of the market.
Its been a leader lately.
And now this after hours:
WFMI Whole Foods Market Inc 28.10 +3.28 +13.22%1,160,506
From the illustrious "Rasputin" (aka Spock) at Prudent Bear Chat:
"Ya know, sometimes it just takes one more tiny straw to be placed on the the metaphorical camel's back to do a guy in.
In this case, of all the potential soul-curshing events that stalk me, it's lowly Whole Foods that finally cracked my Vulcan skull and has caused me to give up.
For, as reported in this Bloomberg article:
Pardon me, do you have any Grey Poupon?
Whole Foods, the MECCA of yuppie, preppie, credit-card-and-home-equity-spending, wanna-be, faux, Range-Rover-driving, sheeps managed to continue to turn a profit despite the greatest credit collapse in the history of mankind.
So, if after almost a year and one-half of the so-called "Great Recession", totally UN-necessary grocery stores like this are even still standing--much less actually showing a profit--then it truly IS "game over".
We've lost bears; we're defeated.
By 20-fiatsco-per-pound salmon wielding lambs.
Whoda thunk it?"
LOL. That's hilarious.
I shop for a few items at the WF in Redmond, so I can tell myself that the poultry I'm eating was more humanely raised/slaughtered than the stuff over at Freddy's or Safeway. They continue to have good attendance. MSFT needs to whack some more people to make a dent in it, I'd guess.
I'm also trying on some small longs for the first time in 6 years, so as TJ says the end might be drawing nigh.
CNBS will tell you the markets reflect the real economy. Yeah - every bit as much as the roulette wheel at Circus Circus. Place your bets, but not based on what goes on outside the casino (until the entire building is finally consumed in the fiat collapse tsunami, as we all know it will be).
Robot, thanks for the post and humor as always. I'm curious, have you ever made a compilation of your thoughts on PigMan Forensics, or do I need to just keep browsing the stool archives?
Have you checked out the daily RSI on the SPY lately?
This is the 7th consecutive day with a reading over 91, This includes one day last week with a reading of 97+. Now, I been at this for a few years and I know that I had never seen such strong readings. Sure enough, my charts go back to the mid 1990's and I couldn't find a single instance EVEN CLOSE. The best I could find was in 96 with 4 days over 90.
This seems like complete insanity, volumes keep dropping and the SPY keeps marching higher. I must say for the first time in a long time I am completely baffled.
Good thing I am on vacation for the next couple weeks I don't think I can take this anymore. Gonna hang on to a small SDS position and get the fuck outta here.
MBI's anemic lil'brudda ABK was up 20% too. I've mentioned a coupla times that 82 & 02-03 saw serious flying junk storms similar to this one but was dismissed for it. Anybody who hasn't played it missed some red meat. Been letting go some of those insurance types lately hope I'm not way too early.
Your postings are great robotrader. Good work!
Btw Merrill has a BUY and SPG and a price target of $59...can't wait to see the new price upgrades
Shorting the REITs is like amtrak. The government wants them to work even if they do not. But it is useless to fight City Hall.
To infinity and beyond!
What a great time to play the Direxion Casino.
Great read once more Robo. No jars of marshmallow fluff being served up with your observations. Thanks for the glimpse from your perspective of this correlated all up market with the rotating resting horses. SPY excepted of course.
SIMON PROPERTIES IS SO FLUSH WITH A STRATISPHERIC FFO THEY ARE TURNING THEIR DEAD MALL ( THAT THEY ARE IN DEFAULT ON ) IN PALM BEACH INTO A HOMELESS SHELTER. ONLY THE HOMLESS THAT VOTED FOR OBAMA ALLOWED ENTRANCE.
SOLD 10K SRS AT 14 AVG PRICE 25 . OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUUUUCHHH
WILL BE THERE WHEN THEY COME FOR EM AGAIN
Sold 25K @ 35 after the 31.50 secondary. Double ooouuchhh.
Still Short. Gonna double down (up??) at 70.
Sorry. Thought u were short SPG.
They're all trying to make their year because they know this feeding fest will be OVER SOON.......and carcasses spread all over wall st again
Hey, I'm interested in a BBerg termninal--what are the fees associated/how much does it cost on an annual basis?
If you have to ask you can't afford it. BB terminals rent for min 1800 monthly.
One thing I've learned over the years is to not to trade based on the fundies. Nothing wrong with knowing what they are but trading is not an intellectual exercise. You can be right in your "analysis" but still get your ass handed to you. Think of all the people that got kicked in the teeth trying to short oil last year. Sure, everyone and their mother knew it was headed down eventually but if you tried shorting it before the trend was clearly over probably regretted it. Same thing with the rally of the lows in March. If you caught the 666 bottom, you're probably lucky. But if you waited for the downtrend to break, you still would have caught 200 points in the SPX, assuming you actually held on until now. So all the naysayers can be as skeptical as they want to be but I'm personally not getting off this train until the markets tells me to, even if I give up a few bucks. Go with what the market is telling you, not with what you think it should be doing.
Bingo! We have a winner
Like I see it, Citi is dirty cheap right now he?
I also just read a article about Pandit saying they have hughe cash reserves.
I'm thinking of buying 2011 calls at 5$ of this one.
I'm going to be taking a seat at the Citi blackjack table once they get all the exchanges completed....not sure where that stands though as of today. I'll have to take a look at some 8K's.