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Banks Will Be Forced to Forgo Certain Foreclosures, Even If the Borrower Has Admittedly Defaulted!
Summary: Without an economic incentive to foreclose, it would not
be in the bank shareholders best interests to pursue foreclosure even
though borrowers clearly defaulted & owe money to the lender. The
economics of distressed assets in mortgage and commercial banking are
quickly changing. I am quite open to discussing this in the mainstream
media if any are interested in hearing the “Truth go Viral!”
About a week or so ago, I posed a controversial question, Is the US Government About to Forgive Mortgage Debt? Let’s Crowdsource Our Way Through a Scenario or Two!
In that missive I warned that the recovery rate on many of the
repossessed properties was not only at a historic low, but actually
approaching zero, save a few blips from .gov bubble blowing and
shenanigans by banks in the form of kicking cans down the road. I also
said that the time may very well come when there may be no economic
incentive for banks to foreclose on certain properties, and that pool of
properties may grow larger than many could imagine. I know it is
difficult for many to come to grips with this, but the math really ain’t
that hard.
Even Tyler Durden, whose controversial ZeroHedge site I read and
contribute to with a passion, is being too optimistic. Yeah, that’s
right! You know things are bad when ZeroHedge is too optimistic! In his
post “Quantifying The Full Impact Of Foreclosure Gate: Hundreds Of Billions To Start“ he
assumes there WILL be something to foreclose upon. I assert that in
increasingly more common instances, there will be no economic interest
to foreclose upon. It is starting at the fringes and the margin, but it
is moving closer to the center faster than many think. And the longer,
and deeper “Fraudclosure” investigations continue, the closer and faster
to the center it will get. This is, of course, not even considering the
fact that all of this investigating and shining the light in dark
corners will reveal the true elephant in the room (and it is not hastily
signed affidavits that can be quickly fixed) which is that many, if not
most, high LTV mortgage originations were fraudulent to begin with.
That means that not only would it not be cost effective to foreclose,
but everybody and their momma will be scrambling to put the fraudulent
loans back to the originating banks – see The
Robo-Signing Mess Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg, Mortgage Putbacks
Will Be the Harbinger of the Collapse of Big Banks that Will Dwarf 2008!
for my realistic take on the situation and the expenses that it
entails. Yes, the elusive recovery rate is going to be pushed that much
lower. Long story short, bank expenses will skyrocket, along with
efficiency ratios, which were already increasing to begin with at the
same time housing sales economic activity and prices will drop and
credit losses will spike. Oh, what fun we have in store.
Here is and excerpt from Is the US Government About to Forgive Mortgage Debt? Let’s Crowdsource Our Way Through a Scenario or Two
to refresh your collective memories and then I will run through an
example that clearly shows a high LTV property in Nevada that the lender
literally has no economic incentive to foreclose upon if there is
litigation to be had.
As you can see, the charge-offs on
1-4 family residential housing skyrocketed nearly 1,500% (yes, that
is a lot) from the bursting of the bubble in ‘06.
Both recoveries have increased and
the charge-offs decrease, giving us an increase in recovery rates over
the last two quarters. Now, before we get all giddy about the
improvement in the credit situation in residential real estate finance
and blow out all of our provisions, let’s take a more careful look at
the chart. For one, although the recoveries have increased very
slightly, it is the drop in the charge-offs that has served to boost
the recovery rate. So, that leads us to ask “What has changed so
positively in the market to cause such a drop in charge-offs?” Well,
for one the Case Shiller Index has shown a rise in prices. Of course,
BoomBustBloggers don’t really go for that, because the Case Shiller
Index rise fails to capture many of the elements that are causing
aggregate housing values sold to fall on an economic basis. See Why the Case Shiller Index, Although Showing Another Downturn Coming, is Overly Optimistic and Quite Misleading! then reference this chart below.
I will make the analytical model that created this chart available to all paying subscribers
in my next post on this topic, which will drill down on why a lagged,
highly filtered price model (no matter how sophisticated, and they did
do a good job on it) will often mislead you in regards to the true
economic direction of assets as such as housing. You must measure sales
activity (which has slowed to a level that nearly approximate 1963
levels) as well as sales prices – and those prices have to capture all
aspects of housing. The CS index excludes the most distressed
categories, which causes it to have an optimistic skew.
So, if it is not the rising prices of
indicated by the Case Shiller index that caused the drop in
charge-offs, then what was it? Well, I believe it was something much
more old fashioned and mundane. It’s called LYING! See Anecdotal Evidence That Banks Are Hiding Depressed High End Real Estate, as excerpted…
Why are Banks Hiding High End Residential Real Estate? Courtesy of the Real Estate Channel:
- Without the FTB tax credit, the housing market is receiving
artificial demand and price support from the FHA loan guarantees and
banks sitting on mortgages of homes once valued at $300,000 - Banks in areas that were severely damaged by the downturn in
domestic real estate (Cook County, Illinois, Miami-Dade County,
Florida, Orange County, California) have significant inventories
of homes worth more than $300,000 that they will not put on the
market, even after foreclosures lasting more than 2 years
If that doesn’t get you going, reference “They ARE trying to kick the bad mortgages down the road, here’s proof!” and “More on kicking that housing can down the road…“.
Now, taking the above into consideration, let’s run through an example of a high LTV single mortgage home purchased in Nevada.
| Sales price | Loan, expenses | Equity | ||
| $ 250,000 | $ 312,500 | $ (62,500) | Starts off with negative equity | |
| Current retail value | $ 100,000 | $ 300,000 | $(200,000) | prices drop |
| Distressed value | $ 64,000 | $ 300,000 | $(236,000) | distress discounts |
| Carrying costs/maintenance@5 m, taxes/utilities@24 m | $ 12,480 | $ 312,480 | $(248,480) | can’t hold the property for free! |
| foreclosure costs | $ 6,000 | $ 318,480 | $(254,480) | cost to foreclose |
| Broker costs@6% | $ 3,840 | sales costs | ||
| Recovery to bank if sold withing 4 months and not drawn into litigation | $ 41,680 | net recovery in a perfect world | ||
| Recovery if marketing period=12M | ~35000 | recovery if sales continue to slow | ||
| Recovery if litigated (win or lose?) | $ - | If there is a legal battle (there cropping up all over the place), the bank is better off letting it go. |
This example is not far fetched, and can take place in condos in
Florida, California and New York where extra costs can drive down
recovery, or the humid coastal regions (ex. Florida) where humidity can
drive down recovery over time, or cold weather states, or high crime
areas (theft, vandalism), etc.
Methinks it is time to start rethinking the dynamics of distressed
real estate, foreclosures, REOs, and recoveries for the economics are
definitely starting to morph on the margin and that morphing can quickly
spread to the more mainstream.
More Reggie Middleton on residential real estate:
- As Earnings Season is Here, I Reiterate My Warning That Big Banks Will Pay for Optimism Driven Reduction of Reserves
- The
Robo-Signing Mess Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg, Mortgage Putbacks
Will Be the Harbinger of the Collapse of Big Banks that Will Dwarf 2008! - The Truth Goes Viral, Pt 1: Housing Prices, Economic Sales and the State of Depression
- Pay Attention to the National Association of Realtors and Their Chief Marketing Agent At Your Own Risk!
- Those
Who Blindly Follow Housing Prices Without Taking Other Metrics Into
Consideration Are Missing the Housing Depression of the New Millennium. - Is the US Government About to Forgive Mortgage Debt? Let’s Crowdsource Our Way Through a Scenario or Two!
- Why the Case Shiller Index, Although Showing Another Downturn Coming, is Overly Optimistic and Quite Misleading!
- More Doom and Gloom: Homebuilders Making Better Money as Hedge Funds than Home Builders
- Yes, Housing Prices Have Much Farther to Fall. We’re Talking Years…
- Even at Marquis Trump Properties, Your Lyin’ Eyes are Belying the Real Estate is Bottoming Mantra
- advertisements -
I wouldn't mind a few vacant lots around to use as gardens. Detroit found a way to deal with empty houses every October 30th.
Fraud in, Fraud out.
They're screwed.
Exactly! These mortgages started out as fraud, and the government decided to not notice.
What a surprise when the process springs to life new fraud.
Aren't these civil cases though? I thought it used a preponderance of the evidence.
Of course, the cases involve so many different entities that getting the whole transaction into one jurisdiction may be impossible.
Plus, we may get to the point where squatters are the largest political group in the country :(
"liar loans." as a former employee once said to me "you cannot prove intent." boy was he wrong!
"liar loans." as a former employee once said to me "you cannot prove intent." boy was he wrong!
...kind of a global hub of cautious optimism...