Barclays' Joseph Abate adds to the recent confusion over what path of QE (if any) the Fed will decide on at its August 10th meeting, and flatly disagreeing with Nomura which as we noted last week is now convinced the Fed will advise of further loosening in its language, believes that neither MBS roll offs (telegraphed earlier by Jon Hilsenrath), nor lowering the IOER to 0.00% will be sufficient to do much if anything to boost the economy, and instead he believes that the likely path the Fed will take is to allow the Supplemental Financing Program (which currently holds $200 billion in untouchable reserves on the Treasury's book) to roll off, by ending the 56-day Bill auctions, thus pushing almost a quarter trillion dollars into the banking system which can then be used to buy any combination of beta > 5 stocks. The result of this, according to Abate, "would likely push bill and repo rates well into the single digits." Of course with the 2 Year already at almost south of 0.50% one wonders just how much further along the curve does the Fed hope to have its impact felt. Could the Fed merely be trying to steepen the 2s10s by forcing 2s to zero? At this point, nothing would surprise us.
Barclays Adds To Monetization Confusion: Not QE1.999 Or QE2 But "QE Lite"
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