You're now on the archive server. Commenting has been disabled.
Barclays Cuts Goldman, Morgan Stanley Forecasts
First Meredith Whitney, then JPM, then everyone else, and now Barclays. The firm that stole Lehman whacked its estimates of GS and MS, on expectations of a 7% decline (after a 6% increase) in equity volumes, due to a "lower ETF volume expectation as well as lower NYSE-listed volumes that benefited handsomely in 2009 from exacerbated trading volumes in highly volatile, low priced financial stocks that we expect to subside in 2010." This new assumption is making Barclays reduce EPS estimates across the board: "In short, estimates are coming down modestly driven by lower return expectations in both equities and fixed income, lower inflow expectations across both asset classes, and lower equities and futures trading volumes as well as debt and equity underwriting volumes. The downward adjustments are not large, but they do reflect the challenging comparisons that most of the companies in our coverage universe are up against in 2010 following what, by all accounts, turned out to be a very strong year for capital markets companies in 2009."
Full report from MS
»
- 2675 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
US government inadvertantly gets caught purchasing $14B of Spy Emini's yesterday at time the market really needed a boost.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aISg0ejq7RkQ
Err, I mean it was a trading error by a fat finger. Yep - that's what we meant.
'Declaring "We want our money back," President Barack Obama wants to slap a tax on banks to recoup the money that the American public spent on bailing out large financial institutions on the brink of collapse.
The president said Thursday his goal is not to punish banks, but rather to prevent them from a behavior of excess, including new employee bonuses he called "obscene."
In brief comments at the White House, Obama took a deeply populist tone. He said: "My commitment is to the taxpayer."'
Obama might as well say, "Now is a good time to sell stocks".
HEY!! Lloyd Blankfein!!!
Still doing "GOD'S WORK" thesedays??? Then, you surely won't mind fowarding all of the bonuses for your entire team this year to the Haitian Relief efforts--
Time to put your $$$$$$$$ where your mouth is, baby!!
Lloyd thinks God's work has been done in Haiti. Mysterious ways and all that.
I know Pat Robertson thinks so...
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/2010/01/14/2010-01-14_white_house_...
Well if God did that then screw him. Screw him hard.
maybe HAARP did it
This tax spread out over 10 years will do nothing. It is a sound bite and a drop in the bucket for this criminal industry.
Obama needs to start taking ACTION, not just talking and he needs to make those hard decisions now.
This is everything wrong with our current political system. From Obama, to Bernanke, to the ever-clueless Mary Shapiro---They know the house of cards is coming down, their only concern is that it does not come down "on their watch" and that is the juggling game they all play--
Can't kick the can for too much longer.
here's the deal- the banks and hangers on will ride the ZIRP/QE = Rally equation until it breaks into another crash- period.
"I am 100% behind capitalism unless I can profit from its demise"- stephen colbert on the colbert report
Here’s Doug Casey’s first salvo in an interview with Louis James, editor of Casey’s International Speculator entitled Stock Market Set to Crash:
L: So, what's on your mind this week, Doug? I understand you've had a "guru moment"…
Doug: Well, it's nothing but a gut feeling, but I think the stock market is riding for a big fall this year.
Everyone was afraid the world was going to come to an end a year ago, and it almost did. But governments all around the world stepped in and printed up trillions of their various currency units – it's not just the United States. And still, retail price inflation hasn't blossomed. It seems that governments are bent on keeping asset prices up to avert panic. They focus on controlling perception instead of fixing the problem. It stems from an economic version of the theory that all we need to fear is fear itself. As long as we have the right psychology, everything is going to be okay – total nonsense.
L: That old saw: as long as there's confidence, all is well.
Doug: Yes. It's the Wile E. Coyote theory of economics. As long as you never look down after running off a cliff chasing the roadrunner, you can keep treading air. Unfortunately, although the power of positive thinking may help in many ways, it's of zero use if you continue living above your means and making stupid decisions.
L: Insolvency doesn't seem to matter; as long as everyone has confidence that things will keep going, the experts believe they will. But in the real world, you can't remain insolvent for long, even if "you" are the United States as a whole society.
Doug: Exactly. My thinking about the stock market is this: corporations have done as "well" as they have mainly by cutting expenses. Laying people off, that sort of thing. So the bottom lines have not fallen as far as we might expect – but the top line has been hit. Revenues are falling for corporations across the board.
L: And the market has to notice this reality sooner or later.
Doug: Yes. The world's financial system has to adjust to a new reality, one with lower levels of consumption and differing types of production. The legions of unemployed are not going to go back to work anytime soon, at least not doing anything like what they were doing before the bubble burst. The economy is going to continue deleveraging. There's going to be less debt to allow the purchase of all this stuff people have been buying, resulting in lower corporate earnings. So it's hard to see revenues doing anything but continue to spiral downwards for years to come.
And then there are financial "accidents" waiting to happen.
L: Like the bank failures the government has admitted it expects this year? The FDIC says there will be more bank failures in 2010 than in 2009, with the spin being that 2010 will be the peak of the crisis.
Doug: Sure. But I also expect corporate bond failures…
http://www.lewrockwell.com/casey/casey37.1.html
"as long as there's confidence, all is well"
As long as you will accept pine-cones as payment for a day's labour and someone else will accept pine-cones as rent, all is well, right?
I work for little pieces of paper, and most of it is actually electronic, but as long as someone is willing to part with their Gold and/or Silver for this paper, all is well.
The system stops when Gold and Silver is unattainable for holders of pine-cones or paper or electrons.
Close... but no cigar. It took only 35 'pine cones' to buy an troy ounce of gold years ago. Today it takes 1143 pine cones yet your wages DID NOT offset the increase. As such, you must work far harder to get more pinecones that buy less gold. It is the 'hidden tax' called currency devaluation. Nowadays many work very hard (if they even have a job that is) to get only 1000 pine cones versus 2500 they made two years ago in a previous job... and gold is 1143 pine cones.
BANK RUN BITCHES!!!
the silver, will dry up first. IMO
Epic battle rages on in Gold today at the $1140 level. Die - Gold bears - DIE!!!
Obama tough guy talk and Barclays "downgrade": GS and MS rally hard, sitting right around their HoD. Guess we know who's in charge.
I'm going to go ahead and label 2010, "The year of the great distraction."
The truth in its pernicious way is becoming harder and harder to hide (take your pick of topics here on ZH), and when the final straws are being layed on the camels back sometime this year, and just before collapse is imminent... BAM! We will get an event, "No one could could have seen coming."
I will not conjecture what the distraction will be, because it could be a lot of different things and could involve a lot of different factions. (see...USS Maine, Lusitania, Pearl Harbor, Gulf of Tonkin, 9/11) However, I will book it down that some large event, most likely involving the military in some fashion, will sweep in at an opportune moment to distract from the current depression's recognition. (ala We had the economy recovering, except for ______, which no one could have seen coming.)
Mark my words. 2010 is and will be, the Year of the Great Distraction.
Totally agree Crab. Eying the horizon for Black Swans. I'm going for food shortages as my personal favourite, but that is just today. Tomorrow, gees, that's tomorrow. Keep looking up.
I heard that Goldman is already looking to drop its bank status to avoid Obama's bank tax.
Makes sense. Goldman should only be a bank when its in their best interest.
Best shot of the day. LOL! What it is is a leave of absence until things blow over...and then they’ll be back. Right?
They would have done well to wait until Q1 reporting before issuing the report. I expect there to be much more disruption in the financial sector than what they have in the report. Just today I confrimed that more foreclosures are in the pipeline to be recognized in 2010, and the default rate on unsecured bank debt is increasing.
How is the FED going to tighten on debt instruments? Exactly? You can only tighten for Treasuries and MBSs if you have buyers.
How will the FED sell debt when the Treasury also needs to sell massive debt? They will be competing to sell Tresuries. Where are all these buyers coming from?
Barclays Larry Kantor is a little confused. The FED programs for massive liquidity are supposed to re-establish normalcy, not make things less straight forward.
Well the FED has already stopped buying Treasuries with the expiration of the long bond buy program, and I would suggest that the tightening is not priced in, because the approach is not even known. The tightening tests that were performed did not work well, even with a FED sweetener.
Also, we see the trend of the economist using benchmark data, GDP and jobs report from the Government as a way to guide policy, when these numbers are in question.
The financial collapse was in 2008 not 2009. 2009 was the start of the massive liquidity programs from the FED beyond TARP. But, TARP was 2008.
Barclay's report continues the disturbing trend of economist fairy land, where fiscal and monetary policy seem to work in their own mysterious way. That the two are not linked, and that somehow a fiat currency does not rely on the ability of the people to back it.
Mark Beck
Barclay's report continues the disturbing trend of economist fairy land, where fiscal and monetary policy seem to work in their own mysterious way.
Oh they work in a mysterious way alright, because the Fed and its client cartel, are our monetary and fiscal policy.
That the two are not linked, and that somehow a fiat currency does not rely on the ability of the people to back it.
If someone came up, knocked on my door, and told me that I had to have faith and believe that the dollar in my pocket was more than just paper or the country as we know it would cease to exist, I would shoot him in the face; or at the very least slam the door.
I am not a US citizen anymore, I am the subject of a government captured by private interests; and I mean it just the way it sounds. America is dead on the table, and we had better be johnny on the spot if we want a resurrection because the shock paddles of a massive peaceful uprising will only work for a limited time. Events are spinning out of control rapidly. If we fail to act soon the United States may not be so united for very much longer, or it may be united in a way that looks something like Nazi Germany (as if we don't already live in a militarized police state), and we may find ourselves in the deep and uncharted woods of history where anything can happen.
Estimates are coming down so that next quarter's earnings reports will look better than expected on CNBC.
It doesn't matter - nothing matters - this market digests any and everything and just goes higher. S&P up 35 out of the last 50 trading days. Up 6 days in a row twice, 5 days in a row once. 3 down days in a row once, 2 down days in a row once. Intel reports after the bell tonight and if the numbers are even close, the market will shoot to the moon again. Anyone who tries to short this bitch will get his stones ripped off.
I noticed the EUC number today in the jobless claims dropped -4,487,839 over last week. Is that people who ran out of EUC?
Goldman Exec Says Firm Gained From Trading Against Clients
I personally love all of these bright Banksters forecasts. I read them with baited breath, follow their every whim and then I, and so many others, don our Crash Test Dummy suites and go for a ride/crash.
I guess no one even bothers to comment on the actual content of the articles here anymore. Looks to me like MS is relatively cheap (8.7x FYF EPS)...and GS is only slightly more expensive (at 9.9x their 2010 est.). Of course, one would have to assume that their FYF estimates will be correct. In any event, the "street" estimate for MS is $3.27 for 2010, so at today's closing price of $31.20, that's still only 9.5x FYF EPS. And the "street" LOW estimate is $2.90/sh (10.75x)...about an average historical multiple.
I sure hope the market goes down a little more, so I can pick up some shares of both at a discount to their "normal" valuations. I love it when the market gets scared and over-reacts...so keep the gloom-and-doom posts coming.
Wow, what brilliant insight, darn glad you added your comment which actually reiterates what was already said. Holy shit Batman your a genius.
TD ventilating again!
This is the same game of "beat the (lowered) estimates". They start the year with high estimates to get the dumb money into the honey trap, ingrain in them S&P EPS for 2010 would be $81 and now trading at 14x cheap cheap! Then the chaps start lowering their estimates stealthily, always on on up-trending markets and near opex when everyone falls asleep. Before we open our eyes again, the S&P would have surged another 5%. But the EPS would have been revised down from $81 to $70 by Q2, then $65 by Q3, ending the year at $60. You should have somewhere on your website a section tracking all the lowering of estimates and the culprits. You never know, once in a while some dumb fund manager might wander into this site and actually learn something, not that they would change anything, its part of the "best the estimates" game.