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Barlcays Cuts Q2 GDP Estimate By A Third From 4.5% To 3.0%
Yes, they really did have it at 4.5% before. These are precisely the deranged groupthink herd mentality and permabullish prognostications that only economic Ph.D.s can come up with. From the downgrade: "Incorporating today’s weaker- than-expected news on business inventories and retail sales, we have cut our Q2 GDP forecast to 3.0%, below our previous tracking estimate of 3.5% and our official 4.5% forecast. Business inventories rose 0.1% in May, below our (0.3%) and the consensus (0.2%) forecast, and this suggests that inventory accumulation is unlikely to make as big a positive contribution to Q2 GDP as we previously projected. Meanwhile, as discussed below, although core retail sales rose 0.2% in June, downward revisions to April and May point to private consumption growth of about 2.5% in Q2 as a whole, compared to our previous forecast of 3.5%. Finally, May’s trade data suggest the trade deficit widened further in Q2, implying more of a drag on GDP growth than we had previously expected." Look for many more red and discredited faces as the economist lemmings gradually realize that Rosenberg's prediction of negative GDP in 2011 is proven right.
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Just a lower bar for them to beat when it comes in at 3.1% for a 500 point rally. Same game... see AA
Seems to be the norm, but seriously? So what now we actually grew from the first quarter's 2.7%?????? Did they miss the revisions, I mean I not a smart man, certainly not qualified to be listened to, just to manage people's money.
Never attribute to malice what could be simple incompetence. Or whatever that saying is. Bear in mind that Barclays employees could be the former Lehman rocket scientists.
This manipulation is soo fucking disgusting that I want to kill myself. Will someone please sue the FED, their actions must be illegal.
holder is busy right now; maybe later after AZ, after the oil industry, after the CIA, after black panthers (oh wait, scratch that last one)
erm... I hate to pick nits but I think you mean 'economic Ph.D.s from accredited vo-techs', or whatever the jargon that that one wack-job employed to refer to himself.....
One thing I miss about Project Mayhem's pieces was the weekly calendar of events, does anyone know a good place to obtain this info or could one of the current contributors of ZH attach it to an article on Sundays or Mondays?
Thanks.
Macro? forexfactory.com
Perfect, Thank you.
Added to my favorites.
calculatedriskblog.com is good as well.. every sunday evening
Getting closer. Now divide by 3
Market is going to close green. Ta Dah!
Well, S&P looks down 0.15, which is an overdue break from the up trend, which means that we can RALLY TOMORROW!
4.5 to 3.0%? Isn't that like a Porno producer saying "a horse is too drastic, so bring in a dog instead."
Bunk. 2.0% is the high end for Q2(after the usual revisions) and that's one big IF.
For Q3 I'll take 0.7 to 1.3% for $500 Alex, at least on the first cut. Something nice for the elections to really fire up the morons.
JPM went from 4% to 3.2% to 2.5% and after today's data 2.2%. So basically a 50% haircut from where they started.
Oddly, their target for the S&P did not get the same haircut.
So ZH estimate seems to be 1% or so. I agree.
Inventories going to zero. Last quarter, GDP ex inventories about 0.9%. Excellent charts as always from Calculated Risk, must read:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/manufacturing-and-trade-invent...
Things arent improving. Hence baseline GDP Q2 estimate: 0.9%. Doesn't GS have their number at 1.5%? Not bad for the first show, pre-revisions.
A 4.5 prediction is as sensible as a 3.0 prediction.
After all, they're only trying to predict the printed number, not the reality of the situation.
Why anyone listens to these idiots is beyond me! Waiting for the data to come in and then making your call is forecasting?? I dunno--postcasting, maybe?
You get paid for two things in this society; the first is making money for other people, and the second is lying.
LMFAO...some magical buyers showing up to fluff this into a green close.
UN-BE-FUCKING-LIEVABLE.
You got it, we're back to green shoots, green closes, green green green.
IT'S A FESTIVUS MIRACLE!
Must..short...something....sooooon..
Marketwatch: Blue Chips win for seventh day!!!!!!
Makes me just tingle all over...
Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute (http://www.consumerindexes.com/) has THE best call in terms of GDP.
He called for 1st QTR GDP of 2.6% and made that call on November 30, 2009.
He is calling for 2nd QTR GDP of -1.5% and made that call in March.
He is now projecting 3rd QTR GDP will be -2.0%
Rick captures real time consumer spending on internet related purchases across 10 market segments.
You may care to review a few of these links,
How Can Rick Davis Project 2nd Qtr GDP at -1.5%?
http://www.senseoncents.com/2010/03/how-can-rick-davis-project-2nd-qtr-gdp-at-1-5-this-is-a-must-read-listen-learn/
Consumer Metrics Institute Projects 3rd Qtr GDP Of -2.0%. That's Right -2.0%!!
http://www.senseoncents.com/2010/06/consumer-metrics-institute-projects-3rd-quarter-gdp-of-2-thats-right-2/
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