The Bears Are Back - Presenting Part 5 Of The Silver "Thesis"

Tyler Durden's picture

The bears are back, discussing the usual topics du jour, which in this case is a rather humorous listing of the most recent 99 black swans year to date in 2011, and their impact on silver. Funny stuff.

Previous parts in the series can be seen here: Part 1, Part 2Part 3 and Part 4

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Golden monkey's picture

Even SLV can do the job those days.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Stick to the real things: gold and silver.  Don´t trust the ETFs.

Unless you are a day trader, then go ask Robottrader for his advice!'s picture

I would rather bury my PM's at a public beach than turn them over to the banksters. Storing your PM's with the banksters is like a rat bringing its own cheese to the trap.

Sudden Debt's picture

Under the 3th palmtree on the left on Pirate Scull Island.


smlbizman's picture

just think how fucked the "gps bury" guys will be when the gubmint changes its precision again  

poopman's picture

cant believe it isnt said more often, but THANK GOD FOR ZEROHEDGE. instead of getting a coffee everyday donate 30 bucks a month to these guys. remember folks, it only costs 30 a month, equal to one cup of coffee a day.

Selah's picture


This is pretty funny... I like it!

GO GATA!!! (no sarc)


chumbawamba's picture

Can someone point to something to confirm that there are 482 troy ounces of silver in one Tomahawk missile?  If so, and if I were a country, I'd piss of the US really bad and dare them (beg them, really) to try to take me down with their wuss-assed Tomahawk missiles.

After the carnage was over, I'd open up each bomb site as a silver mine.  Then after rebuilding my country with all the silver, I would buy America on the fucking dip.

But, I don't believe it.

I am Chumbawamba.

Motorhead's picture

I was wondering the same thing...did a search but didn't find anything.

Absinthe Minded's picture

Sounds like Blythe made her own movie.

Weisbrot's picture

so even if the bears have it right and the comex is empty, what difference does it make? perhaps all the silver sheep are being hearded in for a shearing.

lynnybee's picture

..... luv the bears ...... luv xtranormal .....

SilverRhino's picture

MathMan, you are a FUCKING IDIOT

1971 - 1980 (Jan 21): 3700% increase
2001 - 2011 (Feb11) : 525% increase

1970 - 1980 (Jan 21): 2400% increase
2001 - 2011 (Feb11) : 490% increase

We are NOT in a bubble. 

Math Man's picture

Silver is up around 100% since the first of September.

U.S. dollar index is down around 8% in the same time period. 

You're all buying because the dollar is supposedly devaluing, but you're massively overpaying.

THAT is the hallmark of a bubble - buying for the right reasons, but paying the wrong price.

That's exacly what happened the last time around - everybody bought because of inflation, but they overpaid.

Oops.  Nobody ever learns.

The reason to buy is different this time around, but you're all over paying once again.


greengoogol's picture

To me, it's very simple.  We are all grown-ups here, and we all do our own DD.  If you think Ag is a bubble and is about to pop, cash in your "profits" and use the FRN's to buy NFLX--or a nice rug for your mom's basement.  Meanwhile, I'll keep my Ag.


At the end of the day, one of us will be happy--and the other will still be living in his mom's basement.

Math Man's picture

Puts on SLV baby.  You can just keep buying and reloading... your down side is capped at the option premium. 

April 35 puts are only 70c....  if silver doesn't break in the next 3 weeks, you lose 70c.  It if it does, you make multiples on your investment.

Or you could buy silver at $37/oz and hope it goes to $40 and then cry when it hits $20 bucks this summer.

Your choice.


tmosley's picture

You might as well wipe your ass with the dollars you are spending on puts.

$20 will never happen again.  Period.

You have ZERO credibility.  You called a top TWICE, it didn't happen.  You lose.  Get out.

Math Man's picture

And I'll keep calling it.  I can afford to be wrong.  You, my friend, can not.  You're 95% long physical silver.

Have fun when it gets cut in half.  It was below $20 in September.

tmosley's picture

Oh, so it's September now?  Before you were saying June.

Get the fuck out of here, you loser.

Math Man's picture

Can you read?  I said it WAS below $20 in September.  You bubble chasing longs have short memories.  It has doubled in around six months.

And you're right.  It will be back there by June.


Absinthe Minded's picture

It doesn't matter asswipe, I bought most of my silver at $15-17 an oz. I'm sitting on 100% + profit thanks to ZH and all my good friends here that helped me realize what real money really is. If it goes back down it just means the dollar is strengthening, temporarily. Do you really think things will get better? Watch the bears my friend... and really listen.

tmosley's picture

What is your guarantee?  Will you commit ritual suicide?  WIll you bet your entire life savings in options?  Will you GTFO of ZH for all time?

Speak, loser.

Mr Poopra's picture

You're wasting your time.  He's not going to leave because he's paid to stay.  At this stage we should only junk and move on.

Careless Whisper's picture

@ MathMan

if you really think silver will crash in the next 3 weeks aren't you better off with the april $30 puts for only .07 ?

Math Man's picture

I have those too.  But much more likely that it drops to the low thirties (32/33) by end of April.  We're 17% above the strike w/ only 3 weeks left to expiration.  If it only falls to 10% in the next few weeks, you won't really make any money on the 30s.  Too much theta decay at this point.

Tapeworm's picture

I do not find any reasoned opinion for your junks.

 At this time I encourage all of the silver bulls to do some arithmetic on just how high silver is now in terms of purchasing power.


a nice digital SLR camara costs 1000 dollars US. In silver at 37.00*.712 oz per old dollar that comes to: 1000/49.84= a little over thirty- eight dollars in 1964 silver coin. Do any of the junkers find this to be a strange phenomenon? A camera of the quality of the USD1000 example was easily 350 in 1965, and there is no comparison in the technology.

 If you don't like gadgets then look at the purchasing power of silver now as compared to first the 64 years of the twentieth century when purchasing foodstuffs or housing/rents or hookers or name your own. Silver is grossly higher in PPP than any time in history. (The 1980 spike was far less long lived than the runup in silver now. In 1980 the topping price that is quoted now was only for 1000 oz good delivery bars held in a depository. Bags of silver coins are far higher now in nominal dollars than the peak of 1980.

 IMO, the only reason to hold silver now is a bet on major collapse of the world economy. If that is farther down the line then you junkers will be kicking yourselves for not buying goods now with your hoarded silver. There is a real downside to this junk-o-mania, Telling someone to buy silver now rather than advising food preparations is criminal. If you think that your silver will buy more necessities when TSHTF, look at any of your necessities priced in silver on as long a term chart as you can find. You will see that silver PPP is far higher now than at any other time in the past hundreds of years, excepting the 1980 thing.

 As a silver long from sub 5.00, (and longer than the resident cheerleaders) I find mathman's suggestions on options to be prudent insurance.


cossack55's picture

I'm pretty sure any pro-PM ZHer here has already pre-positioned adequate stocks of various defensive capabilities.  I have been acquiring silver since 64', albeit in a more numismatic venue. You may have noticed, BTW, numismatics are out the F'ing window except for the truly rare.  I set a PM goal and reached it. I am not now buying and have not been for a couple of years (summer 08').  I would certainly encourage anyone who has not acquired any do so ASAP. But you are right, take care of the basics first and foremost.  Any left over, AG/AU baby.

tmosley's picture

Some simple math will answer your question.

1964 world stockpile of silver: 10 billion ounces.

2010 world stockpile of silver: 150-350 million ounces.

World demand for silver (annual): 1 billion ounces.

World production: 709 million ounces.

MathMan hasn't done the math.  He hears only what he wants to hear, and knows only what he heard.  He wants there to be no corruption, or price manipulation, but there it is RIGHT THERE in the numbers.  This kind of drawdown of stockpiles simply CAN NOT happen without market intervention.

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Lets face it: we're stuck with Obama for 4 more years. How is this not good for silver and gold?!?


MathMan=Epic Fail.

BeanusCountus's picture

See this type of comment all the time.  Probably just my generation, but hard to relate.

Seems to me that back in the mid 70's gold was around 300, silver around 5.  Pack of smokes around .50.  Gallon of gas around .50.  Health insurance for a family around 150/mo.  New beemer ("2002") around 4000.  Six heinekens 3.00.  Decent new home around 50K.  Decent college around 5K per year.  Rule of thumb for income was "$30k by age 30" and you were a success.

Comparing something to an electronic gadget is a bit misleading.  Except for the heineken, almost everything is up 5x to 10x since that time.  (Hmmm, maybe Heineken is undervalued???)  You think gold and silver are in a bubble.  They seem about right to me.  True, they have run quite a bit since 2000.  But given suppression tactics, ever consider that they are just catching up?

Mr. Mandelbrot's picture

Can Anonymous help us "find" these trolls?  {who does number 2 work for?!}

roninmd's picture

All the local mom and pop shops are sold out of silver down here in Dallas.  If it dips to $20 I'm buying more if I can find it.

cosmictrainwreck's picture

dude - there's a shit-load of equities that are more bubblicious, by your pathetic definition of a "bubble". why don't you focus on those, idiot? as to your lame cry-baby bullshit about "paying too much" you don't have a fucking clue, let alone any data, for who's buying at what price - only an assumption all on ZH are buying hand-over-fist right here. I'd wager plenty guys sitting with cash to BTFD - you DIP. So, take a break form trying to "save" us... ya fucktard [motto = save them from themselves...go join the damn .Gov]

Vagabond's picture

Some day you may be able to buy a paper certificate to silver for $20/ounce, but good luck buying any physical at that price.  20 FRNs used to be good for an ounce of gold, we are long past those days. 20 FRNs will never buy an ounce of silver again.  Figure it out smart guy.  Go ahead, short silver.

Goldenballs's picture

Make him have it T.Moseley must have F*** all Silver so he,s pi**ed off.Life must be sad in his world,banknotes burn so fast on an open fire.

FeralSerf's picture

How much have you make so far from your Sept short and put trades?

Harlequin001's picture

I think he's trying to talk his book...

Harlequin001's picture

Like you said Mathman, you'll keep calling it again, and again, and again, and again...

Some people just can't admit they're wrong.

DeadFred's picture

Don't be suprised if it happens.  Blythe still has tricks up her sleave.  Push the price to $60 real quick, then get her buds to change the comex rules or make a threat of confiscation and it could see $20 again.  It won't stick though so just find a way to buy more.  We are watching the dollar's end game but it could be a really convoluted story-line.

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

It could be but historically you're wrong about the effects of confiscation.

JuicyTheAnimal's picture

If silver hits $20 This summer I'll still be up over 15% on my stash!  You've given me a vote of confidence.  God I miss those sub $20 days.  There was some weight to my purchases.  Now me arms are getting whimpy. 

unwashedmass's picture


i started buying at take it to twenty, who cares? Not me, not selling. hell no....i'm not going to be one of the people with nothing more than Bennie Boy's pretty green paper in the end.

The Navigator's picture

I started buying at 10 and am still buying today ($39.50/oz at the coin shop for buffalo rounds & Mexican Onzas, 20 more coins) - doesn't matter what price you pay, get some real money 'cus the day is coming when this giant ponziNomics falls apart and the Bernanke Monopoly paper is only good for heating your house.

MathMan needs to study some history and math - the numbers are so overwhelming (debt, deficits), they are exponential, and history shows the ONLY way out is thru debasement of currency (hyper-printing of fiat paper) which leads to inflation - and our only protection against this is Ag & Au. It's not rocket science and if you've been paying attention in class here at ZH for the past 2 years, you'd get it.

History and Math classes are taught here daily MathMan and you're welcome to attend.

unwashedmass's picture


i started buying at take it to twenty, who cares? Not me, not selling. hell no....i'm not going to be one of the people with nothing more than Bennie Boy's pretty green paper in the end.

Creed's picture

cry when it hits $20 bucks this summer.



I bought at $20 and watched it drop to $9 6 months later

still have that $20 silver and it's worth $37 + now...

no crying here, just patience


different strokes for different folks