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The Bears Are Back - Presenting Part 5 Of The Silver "Thesis"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The bears are back, discussing the usual topics du jour, which in this case is a rather humorous listing of the most recent 99 black swans year to date in 2011, and their impact on silver. Funny stuff.

Previous parts in the series can be seen here: Part 1, Part 2Part 3 and Part 4

 


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Fri, 03/25/2011 - 13:13 | Link to Comment Golden monkey
Golden monkey's picture

Even SLV can do the job those days.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 13:29 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Stick to the real things: gold and silver.  Don´t trust the ETFs.

Unless you are a day trader, then go ask Robottrader for his advice!

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 16:38 | Link to Comment tashatt@verizon.net
tashatt@verizon.net's picture

I would rather bury my PM's at a public beach than turn them over to the banksters. Storing your PM's with the banksters is like a rat bringing its own cheese to the trap.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:28 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

Which beach?

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 23:58 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Son of a Beach...

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 06:23 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Under the 3th palmtree on the left on Pirate Scull Island.

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 22:33 | Link to Comment laughing_swordfish
laughing_swordfish's picture

+ 100

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 00:03 | Link to Comment Mr. Mandelbrot
Mr. Mandelbrot's picture

Amen

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 09:03 | Link to Comment smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

just think how fucked the "gps bury" guys will be when the gubmint changes its precision again  

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 09:42 | Link to Comment poopman
poopman's picture

cant believe it isnt said more often, but THANK GOD FOR ZEROHEDGE. instead of getting a coffee everyday donate 30 bucks a month to these guys. remember folks, it only costs 30 a month, equal to one cup of coffee a day.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 23:44 | Link to Comment xPat
xPat's picture

Hey Tyler, you missed an episode!

Silver Bears go Full Retard: http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/11349832/Precious_Metals_Bears_go_Full_R...

xPat

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 00:14 | Link to Comment Selah
Selah's picture

 

This is pretty funny... I like it!

GO GATA!!! (no sarc)

 

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 10:15 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Can someone point to something to confirm that there are 482 troy ounces of silver in one Tomahawk missile?  If so, and if I were a country, I'd piss of the US really bad and dare them (beg them, really) to try to take me down with their wuss-assed Tomahawk missiles.

After the carnage was over, I'd open up each bomb site as a silver mine.  Then after rebuilding my country with all the silver, I would buy America on the fucking dip.

But, I don't believe it.

I am Chumbawamba.

Sun, 03/27/2011 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

I was wondering the same thing...did a search but didn't find anything.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 14:22 | Link to Comment Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

Sounds like Blythe made her own movie.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 06:06 | Link to Comment Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

so even if the bears have it right and the comex is empty, what difference does it make? perhaps all the silver sheep are being hearded in for a shearing.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 13:15 | Link to Comment lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

..... luv the bears ...... luv xtranormal .....

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 15:48 | Link to Comment SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

MathMan, you are a FUCKING IDIOT

SILVER
1971 - 1980 (Jan 21): 3700% increase
2001 - 2011 (Feb11) : 525% increase

GOLD
1970 - 1980 (Jan 21): 2400% increase
2001 - 2011 (Feb11) : 490% increase

We are NOT in a bubble. 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 15:59 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Silver is up around 100% since the first of September.

U.S. dollar index is down around 8% in the same time period. 

You're all buying because the dollar is supposedly devaluing, but you're massively overpaying.

THAT is the hallmark of a bubble - buying for the right reasons, but paying the wrong price.

That's exacly what happened the last time around - everybody bought because of inflation, but they overpaid.

Oops.  Nobody ever learns.

The reason to buy is different this time around, but you're all over paying once again.

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 16:33 | Link to Comment greengoogol
greengoogol's picture

To me, it's very simple.  We are all grown-ups here, and we all do our own DD.  If you think Ag is a bubble and is about to pop, cash in your "profits" and use the FRN's to buy NFLX--or a nice rug for your mom's basement.  Meanwhile, I'll keep my Ag.

 

At the end of the day, one of us will be happy--and the other will still be living in his mom's basement.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:05 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Puts on SLV baby.  You can just keep buying and reloading... your down side is capped at the option premium. 

April 35 puts are only 70c....  if silver doesn't break in the next 3 weeks, you lose 70c.  It if it does, you make multiples on your investment.

Or you could buy silver at $37/oz and hope it goes to $40 and then cry when it hits $20 bucks this summer.

Your choice.

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:36 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

You might as well wipe your ass with the dollars you are spending on puts.

$20 will never happen again.  Period.

You have ZERO credibility.  You called a top TWICE, it didn't happen.  You lose.  Get out.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

And I'll keep calling it.  I can afford to be wrong.  You, my friend, can not.  You're 95% long physical silver.

Have fun when it gets cut in half.  It was below $20 in September.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:50 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Oh, so it's September now?  Before you were saying June.

Get the fuck out of here, you loser.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:47 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Can you read?  I said it WAS below $20 in September.  You bubble chasing longs have short memories.  It has doubled in around six months.

And you're right.  It will be back there by June.

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 20:20 | Link to Comment Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

It doesn't matter asswipe, I bought most of my silver at $15-17 an oz. I'm sitting on 100% + profit thanks to ZH and all my good friends here that helped me realize what real money really is. If it goes back down it just means the dollar is strengthening, temporarily. Do you really think things will get better? Watch the bears my friend... and really listen.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 20:19 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

What is your guarantee?  Will you commit ritual suicide?  WIll you bet your entire life savings in options?  Will you GTFO of ZH for all time?

Speak, loser.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 22:27 | Link to Comment Mr Poopra
Mr Poopra's picture

You're wasting your time.  He's not going to leave because he's paid to stay.  At this stage we should only junk and move on.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 22:48 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

@ MathMan

if you really think silver will crash in the next 3 weeks aren't you better off with the april $30 puts for only .07 ?

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 01:26 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

I have those too.  But much more likely that it drops to the low thirties (32/33) by end of April.  We're 17% above the strike w/ only 3 weeks left to expiration.  If it only falls to 10% in the next few weeks, you won't really make any money on the 30s.  Too much theta decay at this point.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 05:48 | Link to Comment Tapeworm
Tapeworm's picture

I do not find any reasoned opinion for your junks.

 At this time I encourage all of the silver bulls to do some arithmetic on just how high silver is now in terms of purchasing power.

 Example:

a nice digital SLR camara costs 1000 dollars US. In silver at 37.00*.712 oz per old dollar that comes to: 1000/49.84= a little over thirty- eight dollars in 1964 silver coin. Do any of the junkers find this to be a strange phenomenon? A camera of the quality of the USD1000 example was easily 350 in 1965, and there is no comparison in the technology.

 If you don't like gadgets then look at the purchasing power of silver now as compared to first the 64 years of the twentieth century when purchasing foodstuffs or housing/rents or hookers or name your own. Silver is grossly higher in PPP than any time in history. (The 1980 spike was far less long lived than the runup in silver now. In 1980 the topping price that is quoted now was only for 1000 oz good delivery bars held in a depository. Bags of silver coins are far higher now in nominal dollars than the peak of 1980.

 IMO, the only reason to hold silver now is a bet on major collapse of the world economy. If that is farther down the line then you junkers will be kicking yourselves for not buying goods now with your hoarded silver. There is a real downside to this junk-o-mania, Telling someone to buy silver now rather than advising food preparations is criminal. If you think that your silver will buy more necessities when TSHTF, look at any of your necessities priced in silver on as long a term chart as you can find. You will see that silver PPP is far higher now than at any other time in the past hundreds of years, excepting the 1980 thing.

 As a silver long from sub 5.00, (and longer than the resident cheerleaders) I find mathman's suggestions on options to be prudent insurance.

 

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 06:43 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

I'm pretty sure any pro-PM ZHer here has already pre-positioned adequate stocks of various defensive capabilities.  I have been acquiring silver since 64', albeit in a more numismatic venue. You may have noticed, BTW, numismatics are out the F'ing window except for the truly rare.  I set a PM goal and reached it. I am not now buying and have not been for a couple of years (summer 08').  I would certainly encourage anyone who has not acquired any do so ASAP. But you are right, take care of the basics first and foremost.  Any left over, AG/AU baby.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 09:38 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Some simple math will answer your question.

1964 world stockpile of silver: 10 billion ounces.

2010 world stockpile of silver: 150-350 million ounces.

World demand for silver (annual): 1 billion ounces.

World production: 709 million ounces.

MathMan hasn't done the math.  He hears only what he wants to hear, and knows only what he heard.  He wants there to be no corruption, or price manipulation, but there it is RIGHT THERE in the numbers.  This kind of drawdown of stockpiles simply CAN NOT happen without market intervention.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Lets face it: we're stuck with Obama for 4 more years. How is this not good for silver and gold?!?

 

MathMan=Epic Fail.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 12:42 | Link to Comment BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

See this type of comment all the time.  Probably just my generation, but hard to relate.

Seems to me that back in the mid 70's gold was around 300, silver around 5.  Pack of smokes around .50.  Gallon of gas around .50.  Health insurance for a family around 150/mo.  New beemer ("2002") around 4000.  Six heinekens 3.00.  Decent new home around 50K.  Decent college around 5K per year.  Rule of thumb for income was "$30k by age 30" and you were a success.

Comparing something to an electronic gadget is a bit misleading.  Except for the heineken, almost everything is up 5x to 10x since that time.  (Hmmm, maybe Heineken is undervalued???)  You think gold and silver are in a bubble.  They seem about right to me.  True, they have run quite a bit since 2000.  But given suppression tactics, ever consider that they are just catching up?

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 00:09 | Link to Comment Mr. Mandelbrot
Mr. Mandelbrot's picture

Can Anonymous help us "find" these trolls?  {who does number 2 work for?!}

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 20:27 | Link to Comment roninmd
roninmd's picture

All the local mom and pop shops are sold out of silver down here in Dallas.  If it dips to $20 I'm buying more if I can find it.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 20:33 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

dude - there's a shit-load of equities that are more bubblicious, by your pathetic definition of a "bubble". why don't you focus on those, idiot? as to your lame cry-baby bullshit about "paying too much" you don't have a fucking clue, let alone any data, for who's buying at what price - only an assumption all on ZH are buying hand-over-fist right here. I'd wager plenty guys sitting with cash to BTFD - you DIP. So, take a break form trying to "save" us... ya fucktard [motto = save them from themselves...go join the damn .Gov]

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 07:57 | Link to Comment Vagabond
Vagabond's picture

Some day you may be able to buy a paper certificate to silver for $20/ounce, but good luck buying any physical at that price.  20 FRNs used to be good for an ounce of gold, we are long past those days. 20 FRNs will never buy an ounce of silver again.  Figure it out smart guy.  Go ahead, short silver.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:13 | Link to Comment Goldenballs
Goldenballs's picture

Make him have it T.Moseley must have F*** all Silver so he,s pi**ed off.Life must be sad in his world,banknotes burn so fast on an open fire.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 20:43 | Link to Comment FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

How much have you make so far from your Sept short and put trades?

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 23:39 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

I think he's trying to talk his book...

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 23:37 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Like you said Mathman, you'll keep calling it again, and again, and again, and again...

Some people just can't admit they're wrong.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 20:22 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Don't be suprised if it happens.  Blythe still has tricks up her sleave.  Push the price to $60 real quick, then get her buds to change the comex rules or make a threat of confiscation and it could see $20 again.  It won't stick though so just find a way to buy more.  We are watching the dollar's end game but it could be a really convoluted story-line.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 09:52 | Link to Comment Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

It could be but historically you're wrong about the effects of confiscation.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:05 | Link to Comment JuicyTheAnimal
JuicyTheAnimal's picture

If silver hits $20 This summer I'll still be up over 15% on my stash!  You've given me a vote of confidence.  God I miss those sub $20 days.  There was some weight to my purchases.  Now me arms are getting whimpy. 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 20:59 | Link to Comment unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

i started buying at five....so take it to twenty, who cares? Not me, not selling. hell no....i'm not going to be one of the people with nothing more than Bennie Boy's pretty green paper in the end.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 02:28 | Link to Comment The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

I started buying at 10 and am still buying today ($39.50/oz at the coin shop for buffalo rounds & Mexican Onzas, 20 more coins) - doesn't matter what price you pay, get some real money 'cus the day is coming when this giant ponziNomics falls apart and the Bernanke Monopoly paper is only good for heating your house.

MathMan needs to study some history and math - the numbers are so overwhelming (debt, deficits), they are exponential, and history shows the ONLY way out is thru debasement of currency (hyper-printing of fiat paper) which leads to inflation - and our only protection against this is Ag & Au. It's not rocket science and if you've been paying attention in class here at ZH for the past 2 years, you'd get it.

History and Math classes are taught here daily MathMan and you're welcome to attend.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:00 | Link to Comment unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

i started buying at five....so take it to twenty, who cares? Not me, not selling. hell no....i'm not going to be one of the people with nothing more than Bennie Boy's pretty green paper in the end.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 20:25 | Link to Comment Creed
Creed's picture

cry when it hits $20 bucks this summer.

 

 

I bought at $20 and watched it drop to $9 6 months later

still have that $20 silver and it's worth $37 + now...

no crying here, just patience

 

different strokes for different folks

 

 

 

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 23:44 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

'Puts on SLV baby.  You can just keep buying and reloading... your down side is capped at the option premium. 

April 35 puts are only 70c....  if silver doesn't break in the next 3 weeks, you lose 70c.  It if it does, you make multiples on your investment.'

 

Math Man that would be an admission that the market is rigged to the downside through derivatives...

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Tater Salad
Tater Salad's picture

Math Man, you may want to look at M2..perhaps a better indicator of why Silver/Gold are going ape shit.  Not to mention the global race to devalue fiat. 

 

The only winner in said race are PM's.  I'm going to go drink now...

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

As I said, the reason to buy is always good... the price is what is wrong.  It's already doubled.  You're way behind the ball.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:59 | Link to Comment Raymond K Hassel
Raymond K Hassel's picture

'a double' does not a bubble make.  Like the dot.com stock that went from 15 to 30, before it went to 400.  I don't disagree that price is the part of the bubble that is most wrong, but we aren't even close to that point yet.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:58 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

I guess you missed the part where it was trading below $5 ten years ago.  It's up almost 8x in 10 years.  And has more or less doubled since September.

Keep believing its not a bubble.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 20:35 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

it is not yet a "bubble"...it is not yet a "bubble".... it is not yet a "bubble".... ya douche-bag

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:44 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

not only were the runs in the '70's greater (as mentioned above), but (i don't know if anyone has ever noticed this) the silver price has been manipulated lower for a number of years, this scheme is currently unraveling and silver futures are in backwardation.

want to know when silver was in a bubble?  1477.  price in 2004 dollars was $800.  all time low? $5 in 1992.   

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 01:07 | Link to Comment tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

It's hard to run out of .com's. It's not hard, however, to run out of physical silver. I'm an investor and I'm not buying silver to sell it for paper. I'm investing in wealth for decades from now. I highly doubt your put contracts will say/be worth anything in purchasing power remotely close to silver in 1 year, 2 years, 5 years, 10 years.

Time will tell, til then, whatever.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 02:24 | Link to Comment AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

OK; What's that $5 from ten years ago in today's dollars?   Oh; I'm on your side, and buy smaller and smaller amounts as the price go up (averaging up).  This is just moving too fast, or maybe it's partly the buying power of the dollar.  My problem is; I can not compute the base price in time for silver.  How fast is it coming out of the ground, and how fast is it going back into the ground today.  Also how much is taken out for minting, et al.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 02:38 | Link to Comment The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

This is not about bubbles - this is about the debasement of currency and the only protection against it. Knowing some History and the understanding of numbers and you'd see this.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 01:10 | Link to Comment LudwigVon
LudwigVon's picture

No, in a bubble the reasons to buy are flawed. If you agree the reasons are right, then by definition, you agree that it is not a bubble.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 07:58 | Link to Comment DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

Agreed. It seems that Mathman is looking at something going up 100% in 6 months and calling it a bubble. There are so many more factors that he's ignoring: market manipulation (JPM, CME), insane levels of monetary aggregates, real demand from China etc., industrial applications, the list goes on. If manipulation held the price artificially low for decades then we are now seeing price discovery in a world where real people are just beginning to become wary of holding paper currencies.

I wouldn't buy silver instead of food, I'd buy it instead of NFLX or USD EUR CHF JPY or 10Years from any gov't.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:41 | Link to Comment Tidewater
Tidewater's picture

"THAT is the hallmark of a bubble - buying for the right reasons, but paying the wrong price."

Nope. That's the hallmark of a normal market; I mean you've misdefined it almost exactly. Are you Thomas Friedman? Because you couldn't have missed it worse if it were sitting on your face, which it is.

Everybody always thinks they're buying for the right reasons -- including in the best-functioning, normative markets. And roughly half of them/us are right/wrong at once and every tick thereafter (for as long the position runs). Game on.

The hallmark of a bubble -- to correct your conflated argument in one sentence -- is paying a bubble price for bubble reasons. There's more to it, so read up. I might suggest you get started with (a) any literature (b) on financial bubbles (c) ever written (d) by anyone (e) anywhere.

Now, to your specific point: which is that the dollar is down 8 percent (against a basket of currencies which you don't specify) and silver has doubled, ergo silver is overvalued...

Your argument, such as it is, holds the value of the dollar as a constant arbiter. Oops. Nobody ever learns, indeed.

Silver is rising -- in part -- because the currency basket that you assume represents some sort of constant-value arbiter is itself losing value against commodities.

Get it? Buy it if it gleams, and be well.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:51 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

You're so blind you couldn't see your hand if it was in front of your face.

Keep chasing an asset that has moved up 40% in two months... and doubled in right around six months.   That trade always works out so well in the end.

You idiots keep looking for the parabolic blow off top... problem is, this is it.  You just don't have your graph on the right scale.  How does it look when you pull up a ten year chart?

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:18 | Link to Comment Tidewater
Tidewater's picture

Which is your argument -- momentum or mania? Or both? You throw both rationales out there so I'd like to know which one you're most fond of. Momentum is a constant market factor and mania implies a peak-crash model. So you rely on very different ideas to say nothing, really. So educate us.

Specifically: Is silver overpriced because it's up 40 percent against the dollar in two months or because it's a bubble -- or for both reasons? Go!

If it's momentum, then what in the next "two months" (your arbitrary yardstick) is going to change to deflate the mo' trade? Why will the mo' rationale you suppose reverse in the next two months?

And if it's a bubble -- which follows a completely different trading and investing pattern -- then why will the current price puncture resistance levels, soon and forever? In the next two months or over any time frame, as you prefer?

I'm interested so let me know.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 23:47 | Link to Comment Vernon Wormer
Vernon Wormer's picture

Tidewater, nice!

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 01:38 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Momentum/mania - who gives a shit?   Momentum feeds the mania.

Silver is up 100% since the begining of September.  US dollar index is down 8%.

Is it over priced vs the dollar or a bubble?  It's both.

Does it matter what will puncture the resistance levels - if we knew, we wouldn't have a bubble!

Did you guys ever read the black swan?   You don't know what you don't know.

But hey, don't be surprised when there is no QE3 and the commodity complex crashes.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 02:31 | Link to Comment GoldenDragon
GoldenDragon's picture

Most bull markets end in a bubble, but we're a long way from that in silver.

US dollar index being down 8% is a misleading analysis.  There's a currency war going on.  You can't trust fiat money to properly measure value.

The momentum in silver is being fueled by QE, no doubt, just like many markets.

I agree, any hesitation by the Fed on QE3 could cause a correction across the board.  But it will be temporary.  The Fed must keep the credit bubble expanding to the keep the dollar game going.  That bubble will pop first, ending the game.

Silver and gold will go through the roof.  Only after the dollar's demise will the PM's find themselves at the top of their bubble.  That will be the time to trade the metals for productive assets and ride the bull of the real recovery.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 03:16 | Link to Comment zhandax
zhandax's picture

the commodity complex crashes

Oh, so not only should I dump my PM collection, I should also flush the RR contracts I picked up when a big chunk of Japanese farmland got covered with salt water and radiation?  Why don't you go help out Fukushima?  I hear they need truck drivers and will take anyone.  I will even give you a recommendation.  I recommend you drive on the opposite side of the planet from me.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 08:32 | Link to Comment XPolemic
XPolemic's picture

Now who is hysterical?

 

lol pwnd.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Dollar only down 8%..  Your right the dollar is in a manipulative bubble that ought to read 80%..  Good call, buy more silver thanks.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 09:41 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Looking like the bubble is on the short side there, shoeshine boy.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:26 | Link to Comment Tater Salad
Tater Salad's picture

Dude, Math Man, you really need help.  I'm not charging for my advice and guidance, but here it is.....M.........2

 

Bitchez!

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 10:52 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

My original post was deleted, so this seems like an appropriate place to repost it:

That is the funny thing about bubbles.  The rationale for the purchase is always there - and often correct, or at least has some basis in fact.  It is the price that is wrong.  Yes, we have some big problems and the dollar could devalue over the next few years or decades, etc, etc, etc --- but --- there is one big problem --- silver has doubled since September, and move up almost 40% since the end of January.

You're over paying for something that is more than priced in.

Buying for the right reasons, but paying the wrong price is how a bubble works.

Everybody bought dot.coms because the internet was going to change the world.  It did.  They just paid the wrong prices in 1999.

Everybody bought condos in Florida for 400k becuase the baby boomers were going to retire there.  They are.   They're just paying 150k in 2011. 

Even the tulip mania started as speculation on the increasing economic prosperity of the Dutch in the 1600s...  and they were right, Hollands global dominace continue until the 18th century.

It's always the same with bubbles... that's why they happen.  The reasoning behind the purchase is correct, but people get worked up in to a mania and over pay.

Does anyone really think the nearly doubling in price over the last six months is justified? 

It's not... you're all just victims of a mania, and it is going to end very, very badly.

The big problem here is you are buying because M2 is expanding - great!  How much has M2 increased in six months?  IT IS NO WHERE NEAR 100%

Buying for the right reasons, but paying the wrong price...  that is how bubbles come to be. 

See you back below $20, bitchez!

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 12:15 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

You're not dumb, but you are stupid.

I am Chumbawamba.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:51 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

hey math.  tell me something.  was gold in a bubble when it tripled from $35 to $100 back when nixon freed the market?  what about the next $700?  silver is a bit like that but the price control isn't/wasn't as formal, obvious or legal.  

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 22:19 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Don't you have anything better to do, than hang around here, trying to agitate metal heads?

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 23:23 | Link to Comment Millivanilli
Millivanilli's picture

You so dumb, when you get home you sit on the tv and stare at the couch.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 01:39 | Link to Comment baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

PMs are not in a bubble you piece of shit!

Gold & Silver = money. Alwayss has... always will be!

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 01:52 | Link to Comment DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

Now...now... always be a Lady!!! 

Don't let JohnnyBravo in his new incarnation as MethMan bother you.  These trolls provide lots of humour and except for hijacking PM threads once in a while, are useful idiots to use as foolish foils in a debate.

If MethMan did not exist Tyler would have to create him ... keep those site hits flowing.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 02:19 | Link to Comment baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

6,000 years of history speaks for itself ;)

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 02:42 | Link to Comment DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

 

You must be in the PST time zone.  Vancouver maybe?... (mining capital of the world)... to be so wise about gold at such a young age.

I had a long talk about gold as money with my lost daughter, when she was a student at UBC, about five years ago.  If that is your real picture... you sure look like her. 

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 07:19 | Link to Comment EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

oh, how I want to make such a comment about sententiousness and smugness right now.

 

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 05:37 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Strange attitude -- the S&P and DJIA have gone up how far since 2009, yet you do not mention them as being in a bubble.  Check your premises.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 05:48 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Wait...wait...should I buy dollar denominated equities inflated by $14 TRILLION of FED money printing?

Oh yeah, that makes so much more sense, since you can eat denim and binary data...

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 06:05 | Link to Comment Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

the progressive keynesians are calling the shots today.

so even if the bears have it right and the comex is empty, what difference does it make? perhaps all the silver sheep are being hearded in for a shearing.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 15:56 | Link to Comment LudwigVon
LudwigVon's picture

Buying for the right reasons, but paying the wrong price is how a bubble works.

No. This is incorrect. People were buying houses in the bubble and the reasons and therefore prices, were wrong. Reasoning to buy edoorknobs.com with zero income during the tech bubble were not sound.


Fri, 03/25/2011 - 16:03 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

I love this part.

 

This is the part when all the idiot longs try to say "This time is different".

 

It's funny, they were saying the housing market was different in '05 too....

 

I just sat back, stayed in cash and laughed.  Now I have a Ferrari and a beach house.

 

What should I buy with my profits when the silver bubble bursts?

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:55 | Link to Comment Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

You have shit and you know it.  You're too stupid to make a buck.  Spare us all your "investment advice."  As if you're here to do people a favor.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:00 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

I am here to do you guys a favor.  You are just too stupid to realize it.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 20:59 | Link to Comment Republican Lackey
Republican Lackey's picture

I'll second that. 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:30 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, Libtroll is here to HELP us by calling us stupid.

You can keep your "help", both on the internet, and in the world of politics.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:04 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

oh, gee...thanks, your Highness. Fuck off, ya sanctamonius prick

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 10:05 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Keep egging this guy on.  Blythe pays him good fiat to post his drivel.  We're helping to break the bank.  He's not reached the end 'til we get him to post "you can't eat silver"

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 20:28 | Link to Comment Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

My BMW and Mercedes are serving me well, Ferraris are so flashy and finicky, should have gone with a Porsche. Nothing like a 911 Turbo. By the way, this time IS different. We are not Japan. Our debt situation will not end well. I guaranfuckintee it.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:54 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

different from the immediate past but not unique.  history is replete with precedent.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:23 | Link to Comment Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Why are you so adamant about proving your point? If I mention silver or gold to someone and they don't bite, I don't spend the next hour railing on about it. Second to that, why do we only see you after a pullback in the price?

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:59 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

if this is what a price pullback looks like, i do want to see the advance.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:38 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Ferraris and beach houses are waaaaaaaay overpriced. You are an idiot for buying something priced orders of magnitude it's real value. Thanks for letting everyone know you are not only an idiot, but a complete sack of contradictory crap.

Now do the world a favour and go find the nearest spent fuel MOX rod and proceed to impale yourself.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 00:27 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

LOL @ mox rod impalment.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 05:12 | Link to Comment AG BCN
AG BCN's picture

agreed, the statement about the Ferrari and beach house gave him away.

He thinks he's in a 2005 rap video.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 06:02 | Link to Comment ManOfBliss
ManOfBliss's picture

Ferraris and beache houses are quickly heading for their intrinsic value. I'm going to scoop a Ferrari up at the bottom of this apocalyptic hyperinflationary depression for peanuts.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 23:49 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Math Man, this time it is different because the CB's are no longer selling. They're buying ergo increasing demand equals higher prices, and eventually, a bubble.

But not yet.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 01:05 | Link to Comment student for life
student for life's picture

The fundmentals have not changed.

 

"THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND" 

 

Can't pick tops and bottoms let the market tell you.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 16:09 | Link to Comment tsx500
tsx500's picture

i agree w/ all u said about  'correct reasoning/overpaying' etc , BUT  imo silver is not in a 'mania' yet ....  no 'mania' until every schmuk and his brother know the price of (and own) spot silver .    just cuz everyone on this particular site has a monster chub for Ag doesn't mean crap .   next time you are amongst a mixed group of adults, do an informal 'survey' of as many of them as u can . ask whether or not they own any Ag/Au .   i guarantee that if u did this experiment this weekend, you'd be lucky to get an 'affirmative' out of maybe 20% of the group .   somewhere down the road a bit, do the 'survey' again...and again...etc     No 'mania' til you get around 70-80% .

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 16:13 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Yep.  This time is different.  You couldn't possibly fall for a mania orchestrated by some cartoon bears.

You're too smart.  You've been burying ammo and canned goods in the back yard for years.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:57 | Link to Comment JuicyTheAnimal
JuicyTheAnimal's picture

Check the view counts on those cartoons (or any bullilsh PM video).  Not exactly bubblelishish numbers are they. 

The only question is QE3 or no QE3. 

You can't campare the dollar decline % to the PM appreciation %.  That's not apples to apples. 

The dollar decline % is a caculation of the dollar vs other currencies that are also declining in purchasing power.

You could compare it to the price appreciation of cotton.  However, that arguement is flawed as well.  Cotton is not becoming a more popular fabric.  PMs are becoming a more popular (or I should say going back to it's old status as) money.  However, it's not even close to being "mainstream" yet. 

So, more QE or not?   If not, yes PMs will likely drop but it won't be a bubble burst.  You still won't be able to say "I told you so". 

 

You're calling for SLV < 34.30 by Apr 15th?  Does Goldman sell a CDS on your trading account?  I'd like to buy some.  I need to give them a call.

I'm selling those puts. 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:00 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

And I'll keep buying.  At 36 implied vol, they are a steal.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 01:58 | Link to Comment Miss anthrope
Miss anthrope's picture

PLEASE SHUT UP.  THIS IS ANNOYING

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 02:46 | Link to Comment BlakeFelix
BlakeFelix's picture

I'm sure this will end like the last time the FED printed trillions of dollars to monetize treasury debt... when was that again?

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 00:20 | Link to Comment LudwigVon
LudwigVon's picture

i agree w/ all u said about  'correct reasoning/overpaying'

You shouldn't have. It was so easy to refute. In a bubble, reasoning is incorrect or faulty. Hence the "irrational exuberance." In silver there is barely anyone involved and the reasons are multifaceted and individually supportive.. In the housing boom one out of every two people were in someway involved, somehow their line of thinking was that prices would always rise. 


Sat, 03/26/2011 - 01:43 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Did you even read my original post?

The rationale for the purchase is always there - and often correct, or at least has some basis in fact.  It is the price that is wrong.  Yes, we have some big problems and the dollar could devalue over the next few years or decades, etc, etc, etc --- but --- there is one big problem --- silver has doubled since September, and move up almost 40% since the end of January.

You're over paying for something that is more than priced in.

Buying for the right reasons, but paying the wrong price is how a bubble works.

Everybody bought dot.coms because the internet was going to change the world.  It did.  They just paid the wrong prices in 1999.

Everybody bought condos in Florida for 400k becuase the baby boomers were going to retire there.  They are.   They're just paying 150k in 2011. 

Even the tulip mania started as speculation on the increasing economic prosperity of the Dutch in the 1600s...  and they were right, Hollands global dominace continue until the 18th century.

It's always the same with bubbles... that's why they happen.  The reasoning behind the purchase is correct, but people get worked up in to a mania and over pay.

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 16:17 | Link to Comment rocker
rocker's picture

@Math Man

Has your neighbor asked if you bought silver? 

Has your grocer clerk asked if you bought silver?

Has the clerk at the gas pumps asked if you have silver?

Has anybody showed you the silver they bought?

Do you have silver?   If not, "Just Buy the Fuckn' Dip". Dip.

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 16:22 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Yep. It's different this time.  It's not a bubble yet because my neighbor hasn't bought any. 

It's true.  I read it on Zerohedge.  The cartoon bears told me.

It doesn't matter that it has already doubled in the last six months, or gone up 40% in 2 months.

It's not a bubble because I'm smart and I couldn't possible fall for a mania induced by Zerohedge and some cartoon bears.

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:39 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Seems to me more like the bubbles are in your posts.  NO-ONE owns any silver.  Get over it.  If this is a bubble, it's super early.  There is next to no public involvement.  Find me 10 articles on silver from mainstream sources.  You will have to go back YEARS.

Face it, you have used up your benefit of the doubt.  Time for a new user name, loser troll.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:09 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

No one owns silver - are you fucking kidding me?  SLV has grown to 350mm+ ounces in a few years.  It didn't even exist until '06.  Now it has $13 billion worth of silver.  Keep ignoring the evidence.

I guess that is the only thing you can do when you have 95% of your assets invested in a bubble.

It must be pretty damn scary.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 20:25 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Ask yourself, how many stocks have a market cap over $13 billion?  

Then ask yourself, what is the supply demand situation?  Are we using 150 million ounces more than we mine every year?

I am not tied to silver.  It just has the absolute best fundamentals of any market I have ever seen in my entire life, including a study of the entire modern history of equity and commodities trading.

If the fundamentals change, I will change my allocations.  I almost changed it on news of no QE3, but since that appears to be BS, I didn't.

But hey, you claim to own a Ferrari, so you MUST be right!  Silver costs $5 to pull out of the ground, and we all know the Labor Theory of Value is the correct way to price things, so silver to $5!

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 01:44 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Yeah, great fundamentals.  Only 50% of the silver produced every year is actually used for industrial purposes.  The rest is speculatively hoarded. 

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 02:24 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

It is actually hard to keep up with your junks you fucking douche.

I am POSITIVE you have ZERO people listening to your shitty advice here.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 06:11 | Link to Comment SimonNL
SimonNL's picture

Back to 20 would very nice! Then we can buy 2 x more ounces for the same amount FRN's. But i'm affraid it's not going to happen. Gold and silver are the competitors of our debt based fiat currencies. CB's are always fighting gold and silver. But they are losing the game, because the game is changing. No more paper gold and silver. The world is hoarding precious metals! And this process won't stop anytime soon. Higher prices down the road for sure.  

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 20:30 | Link to Comment Strike Back
Strike Back's picture

Exactly, no one owns any silver.  Except the Chinese, who have been taking delivery on their holdings of SLV.  So whatever silver we had is going over there.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:40 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Chinese are buying all silver mostly for medical reasons. When TSHTF people will beg to live, forget other industrial applications.
They say you can't eat silver. But if silver was the only means to save your life, you'd worry about food later.
Survival comes first.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 22:03 | Link to Comment Confucious 222
Confucious 222's picture

Well Math Man,

If your mission was to come out and tell people that silver is in a bubble, and it's going to crash, then, great, thanks for the heads up.

Now, let me share a tidbit with you. There is only one best reflector of photons known to man. That is silver. There is only one best conductor of electrons known to man. That is silver also. Are electrons and photons likely to play a role in technology over the next 20 years? I think so. I also think there is less physical silver above ground than there is gold. I think there are several reasons for that. One of those reasons is that after the discovery of the Comstock lode, this country was awash with spare billions of ounces of silver. Over time, they have been used up. In time, the Hunt brothers became aware of the growing dwindling stockpiles and attempted to corner the market. Now, not everyone in the world could have worked in Manhattan at the WTC in close proximity to the Board of Governors of the COMEX, but I did. Not everyone in the world has traded on the floor of the COMEX at the WTC; (it's not there any more), but I have. I witnessed first hand how the Board of Governors, to a man, got short silver in their own personal accounts. I witnessed how there came to be a day when the Chairman of the Board of Governors would have had a margin call that he could not meet if silver closed higher the following day. Guess what? The rules changed on the COMEX that evening. Longs needed 100% margin - cash only. The Hunt's began to drown in a sea of red ink as the price collapsed. Now, this was a learning event for some. Some folks at Bear Stearns and other fine firms learned they were held in high esteem by the Fed for their part in restoring some confidence in the dollar and breaking the backs and balls of the Hunts. They also learned that there was a fine way to make money in the market shaking the tree from time to time and collaborating with others in that regard. As time went by, some individuals became emboldened. Some became more corrupt. Some became rich.

Now, today, JPMorgue does the Fed's bidding. They are now short more silver than exists in the world. Their game, however is not so secretany more. Others are becoming emboldened. The ones holding PHYSICAL for example. They are emboldened because they know that there is only a tiny amount of silver left from a century ago. They know that at the rate it is being consumed and saved and HOARDED, the price can only go up. They also know that if nothing else, the many trillions of dollars in unpayable DEBT, like a millstone around the neck of the value of the dollar, will mean each year will have an increase in the value of all PM's for the foreseeable future, expressed in dollars. That is not a "bubble" to me. It may be a distressing thing to you or your employer, who knows. Perhaps you have come here to warn us, educate us, fuck with our heads, who knows?

Personally, I think anybody in their right mind will get as much physical silver as they can while the getting is good. Personaly, I think you're jealous.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 22:53 | Link to Comment Mr Poopra
Mr Poopra's picture

Your name suits you.  Thank you for an excellent post, sir.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 02:03 | Link to Comment fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Wow, well said!  For more facts see my office series:
The Silver Bubble Debunked - Office Series 2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lVCtIiMveE

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 00:32 | Link to Comment LudwigVon
LudwigVon's picture

 

I just sat back, stayed in cash...

I guess that is the only thing you can do when you have 95% of your assets invested in a bubble.

It must be pretty damn scary.

So you had 100% of your assets in a bubble!! cash? I would be scared too!

Yes, I would be scared too as the bubbledollar has deflated 14% in value in the last 9 months and over 30% in 10 years per the WSJ.

 

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 04:16 | Link to Comment faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

What must be pretty scary is SLV's desperate hope that their business model is sound. You know, the one where their survival hinges on everyone believing they actually own all that metal.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:11 | Link to Comment maximin thrax
maximin thrax's picture

Mathster, you seem stuck on the same fallacy you accuse others of embracing: It's different this time. When it's pointed out to you that there are mania phases well beyond where silver is now, in which everyone's friend, co-worker, brother and priest is buying and fancies themselves as experts, and that we're nowhere near that today, you blow it off. You instead insist that price action ONLY defines a bubble. In fact, if a bubble is inflating it's only because of a marginal increase in investors squeezing supply.

Until silver is bought with wreckless abandon by the common man, and with significant leverege, making the investor the MAJOR buyer of silver, it is not a bubble. If it is ultimately going to $200/oz because some time in the future a billion people worldwide pour their savings into it, then why not ride it up to $100? $150? It's not different this time, and the beanie baby bubble is not even on the horizon of the silver market.

Then again, when billions again hold their wealth in silver, we're simply going back to a time where that was the norm, except there are so many more people now and they are much more wealthy. Is reversion to the mean ever a bubble, or is it a signal of the bursting of a bubble? Priced in silver, it may be the linen bubble that is slowly deflating. Remember, after the beanie baby mania one's left with stuffed toys. After the dot com bubble, useless paper. After the alleged silver bubble? One has silver.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:05 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Arguing that Silver is not in a bubble because the guy who shines your shoes is not in yet is a big mistake - that is the 'it's different this time argument' - once again, you're just blind to it.

$5 to 37 in the last ten years...   and up almost 100% since September.   

Looks like a bubble to me.

But you guys keep buying because your neighbor hasn't buried any in his backyard yet and some cartoon bears tell you its still time to buy.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:28 | Link to Comment maximin thrax
maximin thrax's picture

You miss the point. The silver market will buck like a bronco, but until the shoeshine boy has bought in you need not worry about a bubble bursting. It ISN'T different this time, though you insist it is.

BTW silver went from $1.20 to $37 in only 130 years. Doesn't look like a bubble to me. Looks to be catching up.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 23:20 | Link to Comment watchingdogma
watchingdogma's picture

But you're arguing that this bubble is different this time.  This silver bubble isn't like the other bubbles - except it's price is too high (for you).

It's not different this time, because it's not a bubble.  When silver behaves like the other bubbles - it's in a bubble.  It's not different this time - silver is like NasDaq 1993.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 00:01 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Math Man, you assume that silver was correctly priced at $5.

On what basis? The rest of the world thinks it was too low.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 01:14 | Link to Comment LudwigVon
LudwigVon's picture

Looks like a bubble to you because you do not understand monetary aggregates, and the direct effect on alternative currencies hard or soft. 5-37 in ten years, 250-1450 in ten years, plot it against the money supply. Then factor in new demand from those who are coming into relative prosperity and their proclivty towards currencies denominated in specie. Owning more than one currency limits risk to an overall portfolio. 100% in dollars is all eggs in one basket and rotting eggs at that. Lastly observe world currencies over history, this is not a bubble, it is a ratio.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 10:38 | Link to Comment NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

That's by far the best way to put I have ever seen. Have we met?

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 09:48 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

MM, most understand the monetary system as presently designed is going to change drastically and on a historic scale quite soon, you do not agree.  If you are in cash and buying Ferraris you are invested in the present system to the exclusion of a knowledge of history or basic mathematics vis a vis the national debt.  I appreciate the contrarian view unfortunately for all those invested monetarily and philosophically in the present system you are in a for a shock.  Let me help you, buy some PM's and hedge that risk.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:03 | Link to Comment Republican Lackey
Republican Lackey's picture

Nobody has ever asked me if I bought Google.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 06:09 | Link to Comment Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

2 of the 4 = yes

so even if the bears have it right and the comex is empty, what difference does it make? perhaps all the silver sheep are being hearded in for a shearing..... after its hits $40 or more

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 16:17 | Link to Comment SilverTech
SilverTech's picture

Wow, and everybody I meet is talking about silver and how much money you can make...No wait...Nobody is talking about silver and how much money you can make!

There's a real tightness in the silver market, it appears that SLV, shich is supposed to be holding hundreds of millions of toz of silver actually has none.

China is importing nearly 100M toz of silver annually on top of consuming all its own production. Indians have just discovered that there's another precious metal besides gold, etc.

It might look like a bubble in the sense that the price has gone up a lot, but you could have said the same thing about internet stocks in 1996 or real estate in 2002. At some point it will make sense to sell silver, but that time is in the future.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 16:25 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Of course!  It's different this time.  The Chinese and Indians are on board!  It's totally different than the early 1980s.

I couldn't possible be stupid enough to fall for another bubble.  I've already lost my life's saving on the internet bubble and an overpriced condo.  I'm smarter now.  This time is different.  I'll totally be able to call the top.  The 100% run in six months is just the beginning!  I can't lose.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 16:44 | Link to Comment SilverTech
SilverTech's picture

Hey, I'm sorry you lost your ass. I didn't.

I'm an Engr in San Francisco. I was out of the Nasdaq before 2000 (missed out on the final blow-off top) and I sold my house in Mtn View in 2006. I missed the top by a year but still made a good profit because I bought the house in 1985 for $108k.

I bought Silver Wheaton in 2006 for $11. It's $44 today. A really great company. Check it out.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 16:44 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Great.  I'm sure you'll be able to call the top again.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:49 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Why not?  You've been calling a top in every post.  And in every post, your punk ass has been WRONG.  

Remember a couple of weeks ago when $34 was the peak, and that was as high as it would ever be?  I guess now you want to move the goalposts.  Now $38 is the highest it will ever be, and it'll be $20 in a few months because other things with totally different fundamentals did that before.  Next month, when we are knocking on $50, you'll revise it again--probably under a new name, saying how it will "crash" to $30.  

Christ, learn from those trolls who fell before you.  But you can't learn, because you are a loser.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:16 | Link to Comment tsx500
tsx500's picture

let's face it...this MathMan clown missed the ride up in pm's , and can't handle it.     he is pissed at himself.   embarrassed.    the outlet for his anger = zh'ers who were smart/disciplined enough to recognize the opportunity in pm's and pull the trigger and ride the move .  MM :   remove skirt.   grow pair of testicles.   close eyes.  purchase pm's.     enjoy.                          out. 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 22:38 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

i think you are right. he probably has been telling people this stuff for years and it just keeps on going up, kind of like karl douchinger.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:34 | Link to Comment CrankItTo11
CrankItTo11's picture

 

I've been following this site daily since July of 2009 and I mostly just digest the wisdom of others and simply hope to someday know half as much as you regular posters here know. That being said, after nearly two years of listening, I have to speak up...

Math Man - you are THE most annoying commenter on this site. Nothing you say has any substance or credibility whatsoever. You're redundant, obnoxious, and just about everyone on this site hates you. I hope you enjoy eating your paper or the sand at your beach house... or your Ferrari for that matter. Good luck finding gas to get you away from the tsunami of debt and inflationary hell coming your way.

The only bubble I’m seeing is the value of the paper and the 1’s and 0’s tied to your soon-to-be inaccessible bank account. It’s the few scum bags like you that I won’t be feeling sorry for when the SHTF. God speed, bitch.

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:12 | Link to Comment Math Man
Math Man's picture

Oh no!  Have I offended the Group Think / World Is Ending crew at ZH.  God forbid I disagree with them.  Now they hate me.  What ever will I do.

 

It's too bad you guys are too deaf to listen to me.  Keep burying silver and canned hams in the backyard.  I'm going for a drive.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 20:26 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yes, go for a drive, and never come back.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 20:38 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

see my post above, cretin. also "read my lips": we don't need you to save us. in fact I do not recall even asking for your fuckin' twisted "advice", kiss-ass

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 04:18 | Link to Comment ciscokid
ciscokid's picture

What Ferrari do you have?

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:33 | Link to Comment swanpoint
swanpoint's picture

ppl, plz don't feed the trolls.

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