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The Bears Are Back - Presenting Part 5 Of The Silver "Thesis"
The bears are back, discussing the usual topics du jour, which in this case is a rather humorous listing of the most recent 99 black swans year to date in 2011, and their impact on silver. Funny stuff.
Previous parts in the series can be seen here: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 and Part 4
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Found an interesting chart showing a 36 year gold to silver ratio.
http://goldprice.org/charts/history/gold_all_data_silver.png
Note that we are about to breach the period 5 years post 1971 when the gold
standard was lifted. since 1983 we have only approached this levels only once
in 1998 and now in 2011, I wonder how fast the acceleration to near parity will be?
Could a single $trillion purchase ever be considered back then?
Jon Nurd Nadler over at Kitco is looking to buy some physical Silver. He is willing to pay a feww bucks over spot,or so his website says. He used to pay a couple bucks LESS than spot when buying Silver back,but he must have sold all that $8.00 an ounce stuff he had ,so now he will buy yours for $39.00.....
Silly Rabbit Jon.
APMEX pays $39.37
http://www.apmex.com/Product/59157/2011_1_oz_Silver_American_Eagle_.aspx
If I was stupid enough to trade Silver for colored pieces of paper, I would choose APMEX.
I also look at the various dealers' "buy price" to get a better idea of what Silver is worth in terms of legal tender paper. COMEX has become a joke for "price discovery".
Gold and silver are not in a bubble. I repeat, not in a bubble! Once again.... If the paper bugs are right, gold bugs will be sorry. But if the gold bugs are right, the paper bugs will be dead! This is not about arguing over short term price movements. It's time to make sure you have physical metals. This is a serious matter. Gold and silver are eating your fiat currency like Pac Man and have been for many years. Time to throw in the towel guys. Seriously this not a joke. This time is different and please buy the metals. We need more people who own metals. We can't have such a small percentage of participants or we will all be in trouble when this starts picking up steam. At these prices, you must buy in acknowledgment, or risk further punishment. After that punishment, you will then PAY THE PRICE for not buying now. If you do not buy then, you may end up PAYING THE ULTIMATE PRICE. Gold and silver will win. You will lose.
This is heady stuff guys...but don't forget silver is a roller coaster ride and meth man may accidentally turn out to be right for a few months. :) Silver can drop big and fast dontcha know.
I hear 3 year cycle low in the dollar turning up soon. Take that and a market crash and pm's may well take a big hit for a while, ala July-Oct 2008.
Just hang onto it and ignore the idjits. Long term dollar prospects say keep it don't ditch it. But I wouldn't buy tons here.
The voices suck now.
This reminds me of the French loving Jerry Lewis. Everybody just thought that they loved his daffy (stupid) humor.
Turns out, in the end, that they actually loved the guy doing the translation into French.
..duplicate...
Oh Tyler, Tyler ... one-man truth machine :)
Gold isn't in a bubble (yet), but silver definitely is. Precisely because it's useful, we can establish a good supply-demand price for silver. It's no higher than low $20s. This will end badly. "The price is going up because everyone's buying it because everyone else is buying it" is no excuse -- that's classic bubble-think.
What Math Man said above is correct. There are always good reasons going into bubbles. But then the price goes to the moon, and people do overpay. It happened to Internet stocks, to houses, and to college education. It's happening now to silver.
We are all stoned on Big Ben's POMO, and we will regret it in the morning.
First off people buying PMs started well before POMO was a common blog term. Second, anyone that thinks Methgirl is right probably lives in the same basement.
There is no comparison to made between physical non-counterparty risk assets like gold and silver with stocks, something that every kid with a bank account entered in the dotcom days, and housing, an asset that people go into massive debt for and pay years to own without realizing it is a depreciating asset and costs to maintain along with taxes. Has a stock certificate every been money anywhere? Can one use their mortgage to trade for goods or has it ever been money?
How about this, go to a non-financial website and ask random users if they own any PMs or go to a mall and ask or go to a coffee shop or anywhere and ask anyone if they have any silver or gold. Or ask Jim Rogers how many investors, not regular people but money managers, hedgies, pension managers (does Leo ever talk about PMs) and advisors, own PMs.
Ask family and friends (besides your cellmate Methfan) if they own any PMs and then get a clue about how much higher PMs are headed.
15 kilos of silver per missile?! When they talk about blood and treasure going to their wars I didn't think they meant literal treasure. Stop blowing up our fucking silver!
Let the Witch of JPM take some of that "physical Ag" delivery.
Off topic, but I think helpful and not foreign to the thoughts of many zh'rs...
Shooting advice:
Never let someone or thing that threatens you get inside arm’s length and never say "I got a gun". If you feel you need to use deadly force for heaven’s sake let the "first sound they hear is the safety clicking off" and they shouldn't have time to hear anything after that if you are doing your job.
'The average response time of a 911 call is over 3 minutes....the response time of a .44 magnum is 1400 feet per second.'
Clint Smith, Director of Thunder Ranch, is a drill instructor (Thunder Ranch is a firearms training facility in Arizona ). Here are a few of his observations on tactics, firearms, self-defense and life as we know it in the civilized world.
"The most important rule in a gunfight is: Always win and cheat if necessary."
"Don't forget, incoming fire has the right of way.."
"Make your attacker advance through a wall of bullets. You may get killed with your own gun, but he'll have to beat you to death with it, cause it's going to be empty."
"If you're not shooting', you should be loading'. If you're not loading', you should be moving', if you're not moving', someone's going to cut your head off and put it on a stick."
"When you reload in low light encounters, don't put your flashlight in your back pocket.. If you light yourself up, you'll look like an angel or the tooth fairy... and you're going to be one of 'em pretty soon."
"Do something. It may be wrong, but do something."
"Shoot what 's available, as long as it's available, until something else becomes available."
"If you carry a gun, people will call you paranoid. That's ridiculous. If you have a gun, what in the hell do you have to be paranoid for?"
"Don't shoot fast, unless you also shoot good."
"You can say 'stop' or 'alto' or use any other word you think will work, but I've found that a large bore muzzle pointed at someone's head is pretty much the universal language."
"You have the rest of your life to solve your problems.. How long you live depends on how well you do it."
"You cannot save the planet but you may be able to save yourself and your family."
"Thunder Ranch will be here as long as you'll have us or until someone makes us go away, and either way, it will be exciting."
More Excellent Gun Wisdom.......
The purpose of fighting is to win. There is no possible victory in defense. The sword is more important than the shield, and skill is more important than either. The final weapon is the brain. All else is supplemental.
1 Don't pick a fight with an old man. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.
2. If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck.
3. I carry a gun cause a cop is too heavy.
4. When seconds count, the cops are just minutes away.
5. A reporter did a human-interest piece on the Texas Rangers. The reporter recognized the Colt Model 1911 the Ranger was carrying and asked him 'Why do you carry a 45?' The Ranger responded, 'Because they don't make a 46.'
6. An armed man will kill an unarmed man with monotonous regularity.
7. The old sheriff was attending an awards dinner when a lady commented on his wearing his sidearm. 'Sheriff, I see you have your pistol. Are you expecting trouble?' 'No ma'am. If I were expecting trouble, I would have brought my rifle.'
8. Beware of the woman who only has one gun, because she probably knows how to use it very well.
'The true soldier fights not because he hates what is in front of him, but because he loves what is behind him.' G. K. Chesterton
A people that values its privileges above its principles will soon lose both.
"Those who hammer their guns into plows will plow for those who do not..." - Thomas Jefferson
I am AssFire... and it hurts.
Lets go shooting and grab a Guinness afterwards.
AK-47 vs. AR-15 vs. Mosin Nagant:
http://mouseguns.com/compare.htm
The Russians make great ammo: 7.62 X 54 is my favorite.
These are great. I am interested in feedback on a gun issue. I live in a really dangerous city. I walk to work. I have a permit to carry. Here is my issue: It is illegal for me to have a gun in my workplace, in fact a felony, and I would lose my job if they caught me. But walking to work is a little dangerous.
Thoughts?
If it matters, I am female. I get hassled often.
My dear sweet lady. It I'lls me to know that there are not gentlemen to escort brilliant ladies such as yourself. If I were in your shoes, I would wear a natural warning to the most base creatures that cause you pain. There is nothing illegal to putting a security badge of your own origin or possibly something bulgeous or shiny on your wastebelt so large it might apper you to be and agent of some sort.
God bless you for having the fortititude to not let those bastards get the best of you.
It hurts.
Lex mala, lex nulla.
Better to be judged by 12 than buried by six. And I'm not "just sayin'". Only one member of the jury needs to agree that the law doesn't apply in your scenario.
Remember what Heph wrote once? I saved it because I needed to read it too.
Worth the risk. And if you carry a large bag you can always just carry bear spray. Fog the fucker(s) - the non-lethal way. Great for multiple attackers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-n51xxF8K8
I used to think that I would die in a tragic experimental plane crash of my own design. I believe my longevity is a result of my reluctance to build an aircraft.
That's how I want to go!
Hopefully, the government tries to confiscate my Gold and Silver...
Obviously Johnny Bravo passed his basic maths test at college and now calls himself math man.
+2 QE Quadrillion
We become SO specialized (maybe in Math Mans case) in an area (ie Math), that we can't even figure out how to add 2 + 2 without a complicated formula. Numbers get twisted; what was that saying about liars and statistics?
Its simple - all the countries around the world are racing to the bottom, trying to out print their neighbors and be the most competitive (price wise via devalued currencies) and meantime, our ponzinomic monopoly money is being torched by our central banks, thereby screwing the holders of said fiat/shit thalers/dollers/pesos/cruzados/francs.
OK, if you just joined the class you have a hall pass for 10 minutes - but if you've been reading any thing but the comics for the past 5 years, this has got to be evident; that the only way out of exponentially growing, ponzinomic debt, is to PRINT LIKE HELL and hope your neighbors don't have the printing capabilities that you do. But read a little history and its all there - it all ends in tears for those prepared with charts and formulas and quite differently for those that can still add 2+2 without a calculator and bought some PM's to offset the insanity of Central Bankers.
A minimum of $50 by the end of summer? Come on, take a chance and state then truth. Sheesh, have even the funny bears joined Sarah Palin?
www.gold-silver.us/forum
I was first introduced to the PM market place about 8 years ago.
My first steps were hesitant as I bought a few shares of a gold and then a silver minor miner with a little spare cash. Little by little I have put more and more of my net worth into PMs ad PM stocks until I am now 90% invested there. I have no real estate for the first time in 40 years and live on a small sail boat.
I set my accounts up with a shadow portfolio with the stocks at all the same dollar amount EG $10,000 and then watch it daily. So 10 stocks would total 100,000.
If during the course of time or a day one goes on a run and becomes more than 10% above the average price then I sell off the 10% and put in cash. If a stock lags to below 10% lower than the average I buy another 10% to average it up.
This way I sell when the stock rises and buy when it falls.
If all crash together as in the fall of 2008 then that's it but I continued the discipline and found that I still sold some and bought others.
Nil desperandum!
Since then I am totally recovered and higher than ever. There is a tendency to accumulate cash this way ...10% of 11000 is 1100 sold but 10% of 9000 is only 900 bought. Everything else being equal I have 200 in cash.
With the cash I have lived on as I am retired and need some to pay the bills but the balance goes into metal. I have gold and silver Maple Leafs in hand and a chunk of silver in Gold Money's allocated and audited vaults.
As I believe that the NGM manipulate the market with PAPER derivatives backed by as little as 1% metal I am not surprised at the fact that gold and silver do not follow the markets as they should. Same with the Dow etc and the FOREX markets.
The tapes are painted. The margin requirements are changed.
However margin accounts are paper and can not directly force me to do anything as I have no margin on stocks or PMs.
The major players know all this well.
There are rumors that silver delivery settlements on the Comex are being bought off with as much as an 80% premium. That is $25 dollars on a $35 cash price. The effective price of silver is already in record territory at around $60. These players are milking the cow for all available and will only slaughter the cow when they have to by standing for delivery. When that happens those who own silver will not know what the price will be. 60. 100, 200 who knows when the default happens.
Gold will not be far behind when it is discovered that a large portion of the CB's gold has been surreptitiously leased out with no hope of being returned.
New gold supply annually is less than 3000 tonnes and the demand is and has been for years in excess of 4000 tonnes. There is 1000-1500 tonnes of gold that has been supplied to the market each year of the last 10.
There is a shortfall in CB holdings of at least 10,000 tonnes.
When it comes to light, what price gold then? There are no CB sellers of gold now so the shortfall is being papered over. A house papered over will show the cracks again at the first shake and may be eaten by termites enough to fail as a structure. All we need is a little rumble and Voila!!
This has taken no account of the vast expansion of fiat currency in the last 40 years and especially the last 3 years.
Nobody can tell what the price discovery will be but it will be different for each currency.
In US dollars it could be 3000, 5000, 20000 or 100000. Time will tell but that is where it is going
That is why your charts confuse you as there is no true market to evaluate.
That is why there is no bad time to buy PMs only some will be marginally better than others. It was not long ago that $18 silver was a lot better buy than $20 silver but at $36 silver each is near as good as the other.
The longer one waits the more it costs. Buy at any time when the money is available. Bit by bit piece by piece. Pretty soon you will be talking REAL MONEY
Regards
On my sail boat Radiant Heat
Victoria BC
www.lemetropolecafe.com
90% PM? Interesting...
I have always found the best time to buy PM is when European CB's are sellers.
Well, good luck to you...
Thanks for sharing. All the best - we will all find out together. I too am essentially "all in" at this point.
Peace.
"Since then I am totally recovered and higher than ever."
Obviously you are not at an NA meeting. :p
So... you fingered out where the other 10% of the nestegg is invested in...
http://weedsmokersguide.com/pictures/BC-Big-Bud-Weed.jpg
"The bears are back" ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bo9BOSP7bTI
http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1337/1370979064_13f5e7ca22.jpg
PM's crashed one time before because interest rates were raised well above the rate of inflation at the time. Until rates are raised again there is no chance of a PM crash.
This is my favorite article on why Gold and Silver are not in a bubble.
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/shoeshine-boy.html
So correct me if I'm wrong:
Creating a fiat currency based on the gold standard (then inflating it via fractional reserve and taking it off the standard)
vs
creating a trading system for gold (also using the fractional reserve mechanism) and then revealing that you don't have the physical to back up claims
=
different incarnations of the same beast?
I love and hate the internet for this site alone. Pre-internet, I'd never have been presented with the opportunity to choose between the bluepill and the redpill. Now that the matrix of this collapsing ponzi, fiat system has been revealed to me, I at times wonder if I'd be better off if I'd remained in the population of the sheeple. They seem so blissful waiting in line for the next iGadget. They are completely unaware of what's on the horizon, and will likely, unfortunately, politicize it. I'm thinking I chose the wrong week to stop sniffing glue. And my parents chose the wrong time to fornicate...
"I love and hate the internet..."
for that, ya gotta' blame AlGore. But, in here, you're the guy in the green suit:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hGvQtumNAY
- Ned
Ha - yeah a litlle bit earlier or a little bit later would have been better. Whatever - I'm learning to deal with with cards I've been dealt.
this is what it's all about.
JP Morgan got registered Comex vault status, normally a 45-day process, in 2 days. That speaks not only of desperation but of incompetence. JP Morgan is good at making money on (government+assisted) banks fees and administrative boondoggles.
How many people here doubt their ability to skin Jamie Dimon alive at a game of one's choosing, e.g., cards or horses?
Level playing fields aren't JPM's business. The COMEX vault move is one of a cornered rat.
Won't be long now, dearest Jamie.
+1
Dimon is a corporate raider IMO. There is a nonzero probability that the major counter-parties to JPM's silver short is some brass-plate Cayman Island "bank" indirectly controlled by the homeless guy Jamie flips a nickel to every now and then.
Can you add duelling to the list?
Silver to $100 niggas!
I'm happy silver doubled so quickly after I bought it. I've seen this movie before. I may sell a few hundred ounces this weekend, maybe stake myself for some out of the money index puts end of the year.
Moreon!
Good one here:
http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/03/gold-bugs-and-40-years-in-wil...
What's different now from 1980:
Ownership of PMs has broadened and deepened by exponential factors. That's what makes it less speculative and not subject to "bubble" physics. Ownership has also broadened out across physical borders. This is key. Central banks outside the US and developed nations now hold cards that they'll cash in someday which they never had access to back when US, UK and France controlled most of the gold. So they're never going to sell, only accumulate.
There's a lot of paper wealth to protect and the smart money has exchanged lots of it for PMs. Again, these are not speculators ready to part with their secure store fo wealth.
It's simple, really. When the dollar was king it briefly stood in for gold during the brief (by historical standards) period between 1945 and 1971. Once the dollar was taken off the gold standard its days were numbered. However there still was no credible substitute and the US still controlled most of the gold. That's what's changing now. SDRs backed by gold are a credible alternative. Economists and politicians are back to respecting gold. And emerging world powers now control significant amounts of gold. Gold is now the centerpiece of a power struggle on the global stage. That's no bubble. All the paper products denominated in paper that keeps getting diluted every second: that's a bubble.
thank you tyler
I have made my own Bernanke video:
http://www.video.me/ViewVideo.aspx?vid=409832 Tell me what you thinkNot too bad...
A little monotonous and repetitious without advancing beyond the initial point, but it reminds me of a video version of WB7. Keep it up and you can reach his heights of ZeroHedge fame!
Lose the "music video" format for a partcular song. Use original music or instrumentals and add more Bernank quotes. That guy says plenty of stupid stuff on camera; you can expect plenty more.
You've got the editing talent and we should all look forward to more from you!
I made it for the common man. You can't explain QE, monetization, etc, to the sheeple and hope to fire them up. I just hope it wakes up all the frogs out there that don't realize they are slowly being boiled alive.
Punishment for treason in this here America has traditionally been death!
This man along with Greensatan deserve no less, for crimes against humanity! SRS
Good Job! Keep it up, every exposure of those fucking liars brings us toward the light. Look forward to your next issue.
The artists move up the ladder, like WilliamBanzai7 - hope you can do it too.
I really enjoyed that. Where can I get that t-shirt at 3:15?
As far as room for improvement, I second the comment re original music. Also, some cuts of Bernanke's failed predictions would be hilarious (home prices will stabilize, not decrease; subprime losses will be contained; etc.).
But Bernanke comes off like the jackass as it is. Well done.
Heres a hint go look at the 10 week moving average, if it is pointed straight up, buy. If it is pointed straight down, sell. I will buy anyones silver who wants to sell it. I dont buy dips I just buy. I buy high I buy higher, I keep making money while you say it is too overvalued. Good night.
Ill do that with oil or gold or frozen concentrated orange juice or cotton or freeze dried cockroaches, and while you say they are too expensive they keep getting more expensive, until they crash and burn. But by that time i am selling and you are buying the dips.
if you like pullbacks iwm and xle just had one. Now buy buy buy.
40 is a magic number because if silver goes above 40 I will buy more. Are you starting to notice a pattern?
Will the s$p go up or down? All I know is its going up right now so I am buying more. This is too easy.
I don't give a shit about buying the fucking dips, nor do I care much about precious metals as as a stock of value. If you want to go REALLY long, then learn how to grow your vegetables and be good enough with a projectile weapon to hunt your own meat. PM's make for nice investments if you're relatively confident that there will still be enough people left after the shit hits the fan to have any sort of economy more complicated than bartering, and I don't have much faith in that outcome. If I'm right, then I'll swap steel or iron at a greater value than I would gold or silver, because I can actually make something structural and useful out of it. The fancy metals are nice, but they're basically useless in a practical sense.
Mad Max,
Love your enthusiasm!
Love,
Reality
What a wet blanket you are
All the better by which to smother a fire, I suppose.
Also...thank whatever fucking god there may be for ZH. In light of the failure of mainstream media to report anything of real or practical value and the obvious agendas of other sites, this is one place where I can actually get an empirical heads-up on what's ACTUALLY happening, and it has only become more reliable in the past six months or so. No small feat for what would be considered a (lol) "fringe" website. Truth might be painful sometimes, but it will ultimately set you free.
100% concurrence
In the meantime keep buying more: silver, bullets, toilet paper, wet wipes, mountain house #20 cans of freeze dried food.
Tampons. Will always be high value.
You forgot tobacco.
Shoelaces, paper towels, ink, candles, lighters, matches, propane, meat, cheese, just buy.
Not sure about the shelf live of cheese but you are right - buy the stuff people will need when the shelves go empty - don't forget soap, shampoo, deodorant, perfume, and toothpaste; all the things that will take you out of the war zone and back to the good old days, back to the fantasy days.
Is Israel going to wage all out war against anyone they can? Yes, they already are mate.
Well Tyler, anybody with a brain not up their ass can see that's not true. Israel has the capacity to completly wipe out Gaza, and even though gaza is launching missles at Israeli cities, Israel isn't. And as far as I can see, Israel isn't launching missles at any other countries either.
So as for "Is Zerohedge.com the merchant of truth," I'd have to give a big no on that one. I understand you have an audience you have to keep pacified. But to those who aren't blinded by hate, as some of your readers are, making false statements like the lie you have above, makes them think you might be one of the haters too. Its one thing to be disgusted by lying governments, its another to propogate unfounded hatred against a state or people. Iran's got its hand in wars in Lebanon, Gaza, Sudan and Afganistan, but you only slam Israel? That's what's telling. Doesn't make you much better than the corrupt media in the west. And we'd like to believe you are.
Like shooting fish in a barrel...........................
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5isgHF0sPZUxqScs7SrAJ9XZdUE_g?docId=CNG.75cdde798c080c354f6f14dc0cd614f4.441
That took all of 30 seconds to find that link!
Don't you be slammin' Tyler.
Map of Israel -
http://fasttimesinpalestine.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/four-panel-map.jpg
nah, israel doesn't fire shitty rockets that usually land nowhere.
they have state of the art weaponry.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/23/world/middleeast/23gaza.html
Gold and Silver are very overbought now.
My indicators warn of significant Gold and Silver downside and this should commence when the equity correction strengthens and USD rallies.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
where does your chart reflect real supply and demand?
what percentage of the population holds physical?
what don't you understand about that if silver really does fall to 20$ or even 15$ an ounce again that I will be loading up like a mother fucker?
Have you ever even once been right?
Yours are the true spam posts here. You never contribute to any discussion. ALL you do is pimp your fucking blog.
You're not going to get any clicks from me, you douchebag.
tmosley-
I read your post a lot, and this is a bit off topic, but what is up with the ZH donations? Seems to be a fair amount of activity looking for $'s of late. Are they in need? Any idea how many contribute and in what amount?
Thanks in advance for whatever insight you can offer...
Please define "significant", "strengthens" and "rallies" in numbers.
This is a great debate going on about silver. I have a sincere question maybe some of you could chime in on, what would happen if the fed did increase interest rates in the next couple months? How hard would this hit silver you think?
The immediate impact would be the collapse of the United States of America.
You see, the Fed is now buying 70% of the bonds being issued by the treasury, and Japan will no longer be able to buy their share. That leaves China, who is liking this position less and less, and OPEC, most of whom are about to be overthrown.
QE won't end until Bernanke is dragged into the street and torn limb from limb.
the chances of the fed increasing rates anytime soon = the chance that i bang Kim Kardashian tonite .
Mathman:
Can you cite an example of a bubble where:
1) The original all time high of the first "bubble" is tested 25+ years later.
2) Collapses back into the base, constituting a 80-95% loss of capital?
Another point regarding the odd nature of this supposed PM bubble:
I am a stock broker:
In 1999 and 2000, I was receiving DAILY unsolicited calls to buy tech stocks.
In 2007, I was receiving about 1 unsolicited call a week to buy bank/housing stocks.
In 2010 and so far in 2011, I have received ZERO calls to buy silver, gold, or mining stocks. Infact, I have received well over 50 calls in 2010 asking me why I own gold/silver/mining stocks in my managed account (I have discretion to buy/sell). I have been told numerous times by clients and management that it is risky/bubble/foolish.
I am the only broker in my office at a major firm, that is soliciting PM mining stocks on a daily basis. I know because I socialize and probe for what other brokers in my office are doing, their "top ideas" if you will. Most financial planners are telling their clients to buy bonds in the 20-40% range, with an allocation of no more than 5% to precious metals for the few who will recommend it to their clients. Food for thought.