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Beautiful Day?

Submitted by Leo Kolivakis on 07/12/2011 08:44 -0400

Sometimes
in life, you got to get back to basics. My trainer reminded me that
this morning when I hit the gym at 6 a.m. and he made me do what looked
like simple exercises. I started by standing straight and lifting each
leg up like a marching soldier, always trying to maintain my balance. I
then held the railing bending my leg back so my shin touches my bum.
Finally, he made me go down stairs (allowing me to hold the railing), do
five squats, then march right back up the stairs as fast as possible without holding the railing. I
ended off with a series of hard stretches.

It all looked so
simple but after 45 minutes, I was exhausted. My trainer asked me how I
felt and I told him that "it's embarrassing that I can't do these simple
things." He replied: "There is nothing to be embarrassed of, you got to
get back to basics and retrain your body. What looks daunting now will
be effortless in three months. Look at how your body has transformed for
the better since April." Then he added: "just stay off the bloody
alcohol!"

What does this have to do with pensions and financial
markets? Why did I call this post "Beautiful Day"? There was certainly
nothing beautiful about the stock market on Monday and it looks even
worse Tuesday morning as global shares tumbled following fears that
Spain and Italy are next in line to default on their debt. Fear is back with a vengeance and algo traders have marching orders, RISK OFF!

On Monday, oil prices tumbled, the US dollar was up and gold shot up. This is an interesting dynamic. As Martin Feldstein has noted,
the relationship between the US dollar and the price of oil isn't as
straightforward as people think. Typically, we've seen the US dollar
fall as the price of oil surges. And gold prices should be falling as
fears of debt deflation mount.

So what's going on? I spoke to a commodities trader yesterday and he
told me that we're seeing the "rise of systemic fear," which explains
why we're seeing the disconnect between commodities, currencies and
inflation. "When systemic fear rises, investors look for refuge in hard
assets and precious metals." He also sent me a Business Insider article
stating that there's a huge unforeseen amount of demand coming in the
physical gold and silver market. Here's why: The Pan Asia Gold Exchange.
As for the US dollar, the flight to safety bolstered it as global
investors rushed to buy US Treasuries, bringing the 10-year bond yields
down to 2.91%.

We also spoke about the debt discussions being
hammered out in Washington between Republicans and Democrats. President
Obama is now seeking a grand bargain on the deficit,
but the truth is he'll have to negotiate some cuts on entitlement
spending that Republicans are demanding. The trader and I agree on
one crucial point: any fiscal tightening in the US pretty much ensures
that the Federal Reserve will proceed with more quantitative easing, ie.
get ready for QE3!

Why does this ensure QE3? Remember my theory:
The Fed and the financial oligarchs will do whatever it takes to avoid a
prolonged Japanese-style debt deflation scenario. And when I say
whatever it takes, I mean whatever it takes. They want to bid up risk
assets, introduce more inflation in the global economy, and kill any
deflationary headwinds that might destroy their ability to make
substantial profits in the future.

It's not going to be easy.
This strategy could easily fail and sow the seeds of the next financial
crisis, but at the end of the day, the Fed will shun Congress and
counteract any fiscal tightening that increases the risk of deflation.

So
while everyone is worried about Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece,
Ireland, and the US debt ceiling deal, I tell them to relax, keep buying
the dips because once a debt deal is finalized (neither Republicans nor President Obama want the US to default on their watch), you're going
to witness a massive relief rally in risk assets. And when I say
massive, I mean MASSIVE.

How do I know this? Am I God? Will I get
my head handed to me like millions did during the Great Depression? Of
course not. All I know is that the power elite have too much at stake to
let the global financial system implode. They will keep pumping massive
liquidity into the system until they kill deflationary headwinds. And
that means risks assets will continue being bid up.

Sometimes in
life, you have to get back to basics. You have to take a step back and
learn to take baby steps before you start walking and running. And
remember no matter how ugly it looks now, the sun will keep shining and
the world will forge ahead. On that note, I leave you with U2's
"Beautiful Day" which they sang over the weekend at the Montreal Hypodrome. Have yourself a beautiful day. :)

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Tue, 07/12/2011 - 14:32 | 1448686 Bruce Krasting

Leo thinks tht the Fed is the answer to all of our problems. He says:

And when I say whatever it takes, I mean whatever it takes.

Okay Leo I call your bluff. Just what is it that the Fed could do at this point to turn the ship around. You say "what ever it takes"

I say to you: "Describe one thing they could do that would budge the needle"

PS: If you say the answer is they can buy more T bonds you lose. That has not done a thing. The Fed knows that. You should too by now.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 12:10 | 1447971 ebworthen

At some point, none of us will be able to lift that leg or hold our balance.

Sometimes, the macro and the micro catch up to you.

It is as true of economies, nations, and societies as it is for individuals.

We have played out the central banking, taxation, waning hard asset to back currency, agrarian to industrial to service/information economy lifetime. The man is old. He's on a walker and nutritional shakes. He won't run a mile or have a romp with twins no matter what stimulants we give him.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 11:57 | 1447925 Ned Zeppelin

Leo's right as to the most likely path, but assuming QE3 will produce the desired effect is I think a questionable assumption. QE3 means QE to infinity, and I'm not at all sure what Mr. Market will make of that. QE "works" if it is used sparingly. I think now we are in uncharted waters, and cause and effect are not so clear.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 18:46 | 1449775 Zero Govt

Ned, you've seen QE2's $650bn pissed down the toilet with zero effect on unemployment, GDP and any sign of the welth effect in the economy. Some argue Bernank has handed it over to the US Govt and WS bankrupts with the specific condition to pump the stock markets up. I don't accept that because all global Indexes have pretty much gone up in lock-step (and gone down this week in lock-step too).
A number of studies are showing Ben is getting less and less effect for his bucks. That's because as you inflate the money supply naturally each Benny Buck becomes more worthless.
So what will he have to pump in with QE3 if QE2's $650bn had no stimulus effect? ...the mind boggles at the numbers!

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 11:56 | 1447918 dcb

I just draw the channels. then trade them. the hft's almost always bounce up on a new lower udn. they know where the stop points are, so since that's where most will set stops, it's triggered and buys. now I can't predict teh future, but we were at the lower portion of the descending channel yesterday, and it's up today. we also had the fake break out on the 28th. I think the euro will go lower, but the parth isn't goig to be alike before where it collapses. as long as we range trade in a controlled descending channel other markets can move up and have.

don't forget the big boys know the euro tells the tale of the whole market and they don't want collapse.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:42 | 1447648 doggings

they already are dude, do you mean unbailoutably-beyond-any-possible-rescue insolvent?

is there such any thing? I hope so, but I'm not certain any more.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:39 | 1447635 ZackAttack

Here's my take: one of the EU countries is going to default. It doesn't matter which one; eventually, one will do so. The euro plummets. When it does so, in a matter of a few hours, the largest US banks instantly become insolvent.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:57 | 1447700 WSP

No worries----this will NEVER happen. You see, we live in a world of "mob rules". If the Euro plummets, the U.S. will simply print more dollars (a.k.a take from its citizens) and give to Europe. I know this is simplistic and it is more complicated than that, but trust me, one way or another the government(s) will find ways to keep the ponzi going, if for no other reason the sheeple are too stupid to understand how it all works. Moreover, even if the sheeple did understand, most would support continued debasement since most people benefit from currency debasement. Yes, "most" people---the majority of the population(s) that consume more than they produce, those who borrow to spend money they do not have, those in debt, etc. Inflation benefits these idiots from a debt perspective, and most (the majority of populations) are too ignorant about inflation -vs- wages to even understand what inflation really means from both a macro and micro economic standpoint. Sure, they complain when prices rise, but they believe it is just market "dynamics", not money printing, that is to blame, so the politicians get a free pass anyway.

The problem with intelligent analysis on markets, stocks, etc., is that market dynamics are meaningless. What drives market forces is corrupt governments and ignorant people, it really is that simple. Trying to invest using analysis is suicide---the most successful investors are those who take their daily dose of "hopium" and support dishonest propaganda --- you know, people like Leo. Want to succeed in the market? Throw darts on 50 financial instruments, buy, and don't watch and you will be richly rewarded (in pre-inflation dollars). As for inflation, well, you might come out ahead, you might not using a buy and hold anything strategy; however, if you hold fiat currency or any other wealth preserving instrument that is not beneficial to the ignorant masses or the corrupt governments, you will lose over the long term. It simply is not in the interests of the irresponsible, ignorant, or corrupt for items of true value based on real analysis to be rewarding. According to the corrupt and ignorant, economy's function best when money is continually exchanged into non-productive fiat instruments that can be taxed, debased, and fleeced.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:38 | 1447633 treemagnet

Margin compression. Thats all you need to know, and it don't mean nothing good for longs.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:28 | 1447611 doggings

So what's going on? I spoke to a commodities trader yesterday and he told me that we're seeing the "rise of systemic fear," which explains why we're seeing the disconnect between commodities, currencies and inflation. "When systemic fear rises, investors look for refuge in hard assets and precious metals." He also sent me a Business Insider article stating that there's a huge unforeseen amount of demand coming in the physical gold and silver market. Here's why:The Pan Asia Gold Exchange.

Leo seriously, FFS, this has all been covered in exquisite depth and breadth on ZH for months if not years now, quite why the fuck you think it merits repeating because some friend of yours finally clued you in months after the facts..

as in your PT you should focus on walking first, before you try to run

Wed, 07/13/2011 - 15:54 | 1453281 akak

as in your PT you should focus on walking first, before you try to run

I would suggest that little leo focus on crawling before trying to walk.

Although even that is difficult when baby's diapers are full of Keynesian statist crap.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:08 | 1447560 Kreditanstalt

Fundamentals have changed, and they COUNT, Leo. The T-bond, not gold, is the risk asset...

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 11:16 | 1447786 WSP

Don't be so sure about the "Fundamentals" count issue. Markets and government corruption are not driven by fundamentals---they are driven by what the elites that control the system want subject to their ability to maintain control.

I would say given the elites have complete control over the financial system and the media, the "fundamentals" look pretty good for continuued corruption, market dislocations, etc. In other words, the corrupt may shake the fiat markets from time to time based on whether they need to get more short sellers to continue fueling the ponzi scheme, but in the end, if the elites want the market to "go up", it will "go up". You see, the retarded sheeple like it when the market "goes up"---who cares about balance sheets, income statements, or the fact that most public companies use their own stock as a fiat printing press to enrich themselves at the publics expense----as long as the government prints money to fuel the market and it "goes up", we are all happy----yeah!

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:02 | 1447537 WSP

Alien-IQ, you wrote:

"I think it was an interesting choice to use a U2 song as a sort of metaphor for your post. Here's why: It's that very sense of "things are gonna get better if we only wish it so" that inspired Bono to crate his "debt forgiveness" campaign"

That is a correct observation. In the "things I have learned" department, it appears to be inante in human nature to ignore the negative and focus on the positive, regardless of facts. This explains why our politicians lie, our media lies, and people are generally apathetic and do everything possible to seek refuge from reality.

The bottom line is nobody really knows if all of our sins (in a non-religious way) will catch up to us. We have lied, cheated, and stolen from each other since the beginning of time. What is different now is that information travels faster, and the corruption and criminal behavior has penetrated all aspects of our social experience to such an extent that it is now acceptable to be a liar and a cheater provided you provide some value to others. We see that in our athletes, our entertainers, and even our politicians. What is unacceptable for some to get away with it is perfectly acceptable for others---hypocrisy and dishonesty in its purest form.

In the end, we live in the most corrupt time in history----NOBODY wants to tell the truth, much less face up to it. Sadly, had we even the slightest bit of integrity and the willingness and courage to face up to the problems, we could fix them and life would be positive and better for everyone. Instead, we live in a sea of lies and deceit, with the only goal being the top elites maintaining their power and the masses maintaining their illusion of self-worth.

You are right that Bono and U2 are wrong to perpetuate this lie----but that is the culture for whom they entertain, so they are just giving the sheeple what they want---an escape from reality.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 11:18 | 1447763 sasebo

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 11:20 | 1447760 sasebo

My roots are in southern Mississippi where my grandfather raised cotton, corn & peanuts. He plowed his gravelly fields with a mule pulling a plow. One day someone asked grandpa what the hardest part of plowing with a mule was. Grandpa replied, "getting its attention". Then someone asked, "how do you get the mule's attention, grandpa?" Grandpa replied, " you hit it in the head with a two-by-four".

I'm thinking we're all about to get hit in the head with a two-by-four called monetary collapse thanks to the panjandra.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:16 | 1447581 Silver Dreamer

The problem is that the escape from reality is at a very high cost. To me at least, ignorance is not bliss.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:22 | 1447600 WSP

I say this to myself everyday, HOWEVER, it is the ignorant and foolish that are rewarded. Those who just buy the S&P based on "hopium" have been richly rewarded. I am not saying that precious metals buyers have not as well, however, in the end, the oligarch will crush the metals and continue to reward the "hopiums" with more fiat dollars. We can debate the value of those fiat dollars, but in the end, my guess is retarded people like Leo that base everything on "hope" will win because it is human nature to ignore the negative and focus on the positive, and when that doesn't work, they simply "take it" from whomever is the weakest---and in most cases, that will be the short sellers and precious metals buyers. It has always worked that way. There is a HUGE DIFFERENCE between being "right" and being "rich".

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:55 | 1447525 Yancey Ward

I don't actually disagree for once. I expect the mother of all crackup booms before all is said and done.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:42 | 1447477 Cole Younger

Pumping liquidity into wall street has little to no affect on main street.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:38 | 1447463 mcguire

buy the dips works until it doesnt..

but nevertheless, it is always a beautiful day.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:32 | 1447441 New American Re...

Stuff it Snowball, I'll drag my knuckles across your bridge and we'll see how bright-eyed you can be. Leo said nothing about MS, and if he does have it, why doesn't he do something about it, there is a cure you know. Isn't MS more of a chick thing. MS is a narrowing of the nerve passage ways in upper vertebra. Get with it folks. Excuses are like a termination point, everyone has one and they're all a bunch of roar.

1st place is a caddy, 2nd, steak knives, 3rd, your fired.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:30 | 1447432 New American Re...

1st place is a caddy, 2nd, steak knives, 3rd, your fired.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:09 | 1447565 InconvenientCou...

MS is something normal, well adjusted people wouldn't wish on their worst enemy.

I hope you stay healthy and live to see all your children get it.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:27 | 1447609 High Plains Drifter

I agree. That is some bad stuff. I hope some day soon, they come up with a cure for that.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:38 | 1447460 Leo Kolivakis

If you have a "cure" for MS, by all means, email me at LKolivakis@gmail.com and tell me all about it. I have my own cure for MS: CCSVI, high dose vitamin D, lots of water, Med diet, weight training, swimming, sleeping and getting rid of negative people in my life. I am going to try low dose Naltrexone and see specialized physios in Montreal, one of which has MS herself and is fine. Finally, have to go gluten free...gluten is in everything and exacerbates autoimmune diseases.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 11:25 | 1447814 Wyndtunnel

How does baiting ZH "cockroaches" square with getting rid of negative people in your life? There are times I don't think you actually believe what you write. That you are just taking the piss out of people. What you say above may actually hold, for awhile...but man, how can think this story will end well? For you perhaps. But for millions and millions of others all over the world, most definitely not. Does your MS, perhaps, bias you towards a more rosy perspective on things? Serious question. I don't invest beyond a small RRSP. I have no skin in the game. I just observe. And I don't like what I see. The power elites are in way over their heads and will eventually have a lot of blood on their hands. Not that the ones who survive will care much as they continue to rule over their 21st Century Techno Fiefdoms.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 18:36 | 1449752 Zero Govt

Wyndtunnel, ".. you are just taking the piss out of people.."
Hang around a little longer, you'll soon see who's ripping the crap out of who!

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:50 | 1447681 ElvisDog

You probably know this, but stay away from high fructose corn syrup too. It totally screws the body's internal processes.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:30 | 1447431 alien-IQ

I think it was an interesting choice to use a U2 song as a sort of metaphor for your post. Here's why: It's that very sense of "things are gonna get better if we only wish it so" that inspired Bono to crate his "debt forgiveness" campaign. You remember that don't ya? Have you noticed how there has been no further talk about it? Here's why...because his well intentioned program rather than actually "forgive debt" to third world nations, helped create the rise of the vulture funds that purchased said "forgiven debt" from the creditor nations at pennies on the dollar but retained the right to collect in full the original debt with interest, costs and penalties...which they then proceeded to do in the courts of the very nations that sold the "forgiven" debt.

The moral of the story: Bono is a fucking idiot and sometimes shit looks bleak because it is bleak and no amount of wishing it away in the world is gonna change it.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:58 | 1447535 High Plains Drifter

I have always liked U2 as a band but Bono, imho, takes himself way too seriously and also he is not that great of a singer.........

once upon a time he tried to keep up with the master (may he rest in peace)..........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9uk5riOnfI

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:29 | 1447429 Leo Kolivakis

To all the Zero Hedge cockroaches, have yourself a beautiful day, and keep buying them dips!!! :)

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:36 | 1447458 web bot

SO NOW WE HAVE THE REAL LEO...

JUST SIMPLY IGNORE THIS ANGRY LITTLE MAN WHO COULD NOT KEEP A JOB IN THE INDUSTRY THAT HE CLAIMS TO KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT...

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:52 | 1447509 Leo Kolivakis

Love the way the cockroaches here can't ignore me...I OWN YOUR ASSES!!! Hahaha!

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:55 | 1447524 Zero Govt

the only thing you own is green renewable stocks ...good luck with those

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:13 | 1447572 Leo Kolivakis

Wrong again, I diversified into tech! But did buy some more ESLR this morning for a quicky...

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 18:27 | 1449729 Zero Govt

Leo,
Evergreen (ESLR) have come from $14.00 per share to a lowly 40 Cents today over the past 2 years. That's saying something about market confidence in green energy isn't it? Let's not mention Carbon Trading collapsing eh? That collapsed after ICE paid a cool $140mn for Obummas Chicago buddies Carbon Trading Scheme (scam) and got wiped out in months, the entire investment down the toilet!
You were bottom fishing today were you, picking up ESLR at around 40 Cents? I don't wish you ill as I've felt the pain of shite investing myself many a time but you've no idea what a loser you're on in this sector

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:52 | 1447686 Careless Whisper

may i suggest a rooftop turbine. it only cost $8,200 and will generate $20 worth of electricity monthly. let's go green everyone! looks pretty too.

http://detnews.com/article/20110705/BIZ/107050363/Rooftop-turbines-give-...

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 12:24 | 1448018 Hook Line and S...

I'll be buying several of these when those who spent $8200 are selling them for $82 on craigslist so they can buy a pound of rice.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 18:16 | 1449672 Zero Govt

Careless Whisper - have you worked out how long $8,200 in capital for your roof bird-slicer takes to get a return on $20 per month of electricity? ...like every green project it cannot stand-up without Govt subsidies (bailouts). Every green Company will be bankrupt in 2 years flat because the Govts propping these jokes up are going down the pan ..like Leo's portfolio of 'green winners'

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:53 | 1447500 Zero Govt

no worries Web Bot, be assured we've had Leo's number for months... as delusional idealistic socialists never know when they're beat, or when to shut up, we use him as the resident Omega wolf to practice and sharpen our pencils on for more serious articles

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 12:27 | 1448020 Freddie

I get tired of Leo and the other socialist crap posters here on ZH. I know Leo has MS and suggested he try to find treatment using Dr. Paolo Zamboni.

http://www.nationalmssociety.org/research/intriguing-leads-on-the-horizon/ccsvi/index.aspx

Zamboni's wife has MS and he found that twisted veins in the neck and chest may be the reason for MS. There is a stent procedure. The big drug companies are trying crush Zamboni just like big energy will try to crush Andrea Rossi.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:08 | 1447563 web bot

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:34 | 1447450 web bot

SO NOW WE HAVE THE REAL LEO...

JUST SIMPLY IGNORE THIS ANGRY LITTLE MAN WHO COULD NOT KEEP A JOB IN THE INDUSTRY THAT HE CLAIMS TO KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT...

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:33 | 1447444 web bot

SO NOW WE HAVE THE REAL LEO...

JUST SIMPLY IGNORE THIS ANGRY LITTLE MAN WHO COULD NOT KEEP A JOB IN THE INDUSTRY THAT HE CLAIMS TO KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT...

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:32 | 1447443 web bot

SO NOW WE HAVE THE REAL LEO...

JUST SIMPLY IGNORE THIS ANGRY LITTLE MAN WHO COULD NOT KEEP A JOB IN THE INDUSTRY THAT HE CLAIMS TO KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT...

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:27 | 1447419 SheepDog-One

Leo retraining his body, now time to retrain the mind in a good mental hospital.

Eat your peas.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:22 | 1447394 New American Re...

(sp, 1st sentence) deflation

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:21 | 1447392 Everybodys All ...

I guess you missed last weeks massive rally. What a paradox ... we need to raise the debt ceiling so we can immediately prime the never ending pump for QE3.

Beautiful Day?

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