Because With Research "Analysts" Like These Who Needs [Insert Blank]

Tyler Durden's picture

We present two rather amusing research reports by then-Merrill Lynch Securities Broker/Dealer analyst Guy Moszkowski, discussing Lehman Brothers. Just because with financial analysts like this, who needs a shotgun Bank of America bail out. Oh yeah, Merrill. We also present a soundbite by Fox Pitt Kelton "analyst" David Trone, who, based on his extensive experience determines that David Einhorn, who nailed Lehman, is "looking at data from an inexperienced standpoint; investment banks are very complicated." Oh yes David, indeed they are. In fact, please give us your mailing address, so we can dispatch this particular piece of literature you so richly deserve.

First - an upgrade from Neutral to Buy in early June 2008.



Second - an upgrade from Underweight to Neutral on September 8, 2008 a week before the bankruptcy.


And the piece de resistance: the question of how Fox Pitt Kelton did not need a bail out as well. Note the "insight" by FPK "analyst" David Trone at 5:15 into this CNBC clip, which also shows how skeptics like Einhorn are usually spot on in the long-run. Let us paraphrase: any bet against the sustainability of the US ponzi will eventually pay off infinitely (even if that means the end of the world, thank you Hank Paulson and the entire Mutual Assured Destruction demolition crew). (h/t to Berlinjames02 for video).


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Chopshop's picture

those who had buys on LEH instead of being in the to death or zero do it part column ought have some kinda asterisk on their U-5 or similar historical record.  such is simply beyond anal-ytically egregious.

RobotTrader's picture


Never underestimate the determination of the penny stock Riverboaters....

They are still gunning Lehman Bros. and Washington Mutual.

"Hey, if it goes up just .01% I can make a 100% gain!!"

Here's a closeup of Friday's action in WaMu.  It actually traded 235 million shares.




deadhead's picture

re: how it was taken down pre JPM/WAMU settlement then some lucky buyers got in as settlement was being announced....

lizzy36's picture

ARS asking Einhorn whether or not Einhorn is talking his book is ironic considering ARS's spent most of TBTF's 600 pages characterizing Dick Fuld as a "tragic figure" (more like a fucking psychopath).

Miles Kendig's picture
Another fine example of what will make this report a timeless reflection of our age. Dick Fuld, the tragic icon of Wall Street.

Right is wrong now
Shut up you big lie
This black and white lie
You comb your hair to hide
Your lying eyes - Dave Matthews

faustian bargain's picture

any bet against the sustainability of the US ponzi will eventually pay off infinitely

That crystallizes my thoughts perfectly...thank you. I wish I had come up with that on my own; I like to think I would have eventually.

BlackBeard's picture

Because With Research "Analysts" Like These Who Needs [assholes]


Why does Einhorn still look 12?  I'm envious.

In that clip I saw someone who knew exactly what he was talking about educating people who were asking questions about things they knew nothing about.

Anonymous's picture

Greatest Zero Hedge Quote Ever:

"Any bet against the sustainability of the US ponzi will eventually pay off infinitely"

That pretty much distills it. Of course, "eventually" is a bitch of a word.

deadhead's picture

Of course, "eventually" is a bitch of a word

maybe even a greater "greatest zh quote ever". !!!!

ratava's picture

banksters have a lot in common with priests, they complicate the simple stuff and simplify the complicated. and they bad touch little boys

jmf's picture

Moin from Germany,

don´t forget the "famous Lehman Brothers (LEH)
Hostile Takeover?
" call from the still omnipresent Dick Bove...

"Will it happen? I do not know. Should it happen? Absolutely, opportunities like this are rarely evident in the markets."

Make sure that you don´t miss the chart with his time table & his recommendations......


jmf's picture

Moin again,

"Adding shareholder value at its best"

In the 13 quarters from the end of that year through this year’s first quarter — that is, before the new $2.8 billion loss — Lehman reported net income of $11.9 billion, and spent $11.8 billion on share repurchases.

It paid an average price of $62.19 for shares that dropped under $23 after the shake-up was announced.


Miyagi_san's picture

Bove..."Serving the smart money since 1876"....Yeah, dead and buried but still collecting commissions

Anonymous's picture

How do David Trone, Guy Moszkowski, and Brad Hintz keep their jobs? It's like the data slapped them in the face and they smiled and said could we have more please? I can understand how the media idiots could still believe Lehman was solvent, but those guys? The funny thing is that many "professional" buyside lemmings substituted their independent thought with the opinions of these sellside analysts. Most of these buyside morons also retain jobs today. Lehman was the clearest case of financial manipulation in recent history, intelligently laid out EX F--KN ANTE by Einhorn. Those three sellside BS'ers in particular should be brought in by CNBC and asked, "What were you thinking?" If someone who works with them could please inform us of how they were able to spin their incompetence after the Lehman fail, please let us know. They must make up for their lack of analytical skill with mastery in corporate politics, and for that, I salute them.

Anonymous's picture

Well, Einhorn made some good points, but was dead wrong on the FED saving Lehmann.

Anonymous's picture

That's not what he said at all. Watch it again. He specifically states that he believes there exists no policy interest whatsoever in protecting shareholders of LEH common stock. All he said was that they would do their best to keep a LEH failure from disrupting the flow of settlements.

Anonymous's picture

I want you as jury forman. Einorn speakes nothing but truths and your dumb ass sees him as dead wrong. Brilliant

deadhead's picture

I think ML (BAC) is still doing a cut and paste job of these reports for today's crew of bank junkers.

Repeat: anybody buying US bank common now is a marginal buyer (along with the Fed) in the biggest Ponzi scheme of the last one hundred years.  The bank sell siders are in desperation mode to get people to buy their common.  The meth fueled hype by the "analysts" and "strategists" right now is despicable.  They are giving the impression to the public that bank are completely healed, all is well, and the stocks will double, triple. Anybody who cannot see the near insolvent (and in some cases downright insolvent) status of the US banking system has spent more time watching American Idol than participating in financial markets as well as study the last couple of hundred years of economic and financial history.

Anonymous's picture

and analysts and "experts" like Rosenberg, Shilling, Roubini, Taleb, Mauldin, Hussman, Whitney, Grantham, Prechter, Faber, Schiffer predict any better? how's their track record over the last year?

Crummy's picture

That's a bit like saying Issac Newton was wrong because Superman can fly.

Anonymous's picture

And why are you here? I know where your from!!

Sisyphus's picture


And remove the FED from this entire equation, and all the names you list above will looking like, I don't know, God? You think this market can sustain itself without the FED. You know what I have realized, bulls are like sidekicks of bullies at school - they feed on the crumbs left behind by their masters and think they are smart and invincible. Actually, they are the weakest of them all. On their own they are wussies.

And you know who the bully is, you guessed it right, the FED. Remove the FED and all those bulls, i mean sidekicks, will wet their pants and go running back to their basements.


Anonymous's picture

I would say Grantham, Prechter, and Faber all had a decent track record over the past year. Faber was praising risk assets of all kinds in early '09. Prechter called in February for a rally to 10000 on the Dow and 1000-1100 on the S&P, and the DX is now well above where he began calling (a little too early) for a bottom. Grantham pointed to the possibility of a bubble in emerging markets, which I think he believe would occur over several years, but we seem to have accomplished it in nine or ten months.

Brokenarrow's picture

Einhorn is an industry god.

Careless Whisper's picture

Einhorn: "The significance of this point is much larger." "Why did the values change after the conference call?" "What does that imply for the internal controls?"

He obviously suspected they were cookin' the books. Props to Einhorn.


Anonymous's picture

It boggles the mind that to this date not a single indictment has been handed down and only a very few CEOs of the banking cabal have been jettisoned...Thain and Carpenter still in business, both went from the frying pan into the fire only to lend more of their incompetence of a already busted up system to insolent companies. When does the madness stop?

virgilcaine's picture

I wouldnt want to be in the crosshairs of Greenlight Capital, I wonder who the Big backers of his fund are? 

Anonymous's picture

Makes me realize how much I miss Dylan and HATE Mellisa Lee. She's turned the show into a circus act, constantly trying to put a bullish spin on everything. The show used to have some meat to it, now it's just a fluff piece.

Missing_Link's picture

There was a time when CNBC was more than fluff?  You're kidding.

Anonymous's picture

"Analyst" is a cuss I think.
Real bad word,Timmi, dont say that.
Better use Motherfucker instead.

Anonymous's picture

Deadhead, I am thinking this 220 page examiner report is a game changer. Thoughts? Or just more of the same?

Anonymous's picture


"Lost ball in the deep weeds" alert...

Anonymous's picture

Every ANAL-YST is just a fucking loser who can't trade their way out of a wet paper bag. So they become an ANAL-YST. They went to b-school but couldn't run a lemonade stand either. All the big firms rape their customers with fees to pay these worthless schmucks their salary. They are only good at putting out buy recs to get rid of their firm's inventory of stock. Wall Street exists to separate Main Street from their money. How many lessons does it take for the general public to figure this out? Every ad on TV is all part of the con. I stopped feeling sorry for those who lose money listening to schmucks like this. We learn early on not to touch an oven burner when its on. Yet like moths to a flame, Americans keep doing business with these firms. How stupid are we? I saw through the bullshit at an early age. Yet millions never have and never will, even after being burned repeatedly. I vow to never do business with any wall street firm again.

Anonymous's picture


virgilcaine's picture

Einhorn's short position was up a few hundred Million by June of 08, he was in the drivers seat.  Brilliant.  Lehman was 60 in 07. Half that by June of 08.

I would field some cnbc bozo question also..The Market was proving him right.

He won't be getting invited to any Dinners at the Greek PM house though.. :)


harveywalbinger's picture

Einhorn's just another Wall St player.  If only we could deploy the one function our gubmint is good at (turn the Marines loose to clean up Wall St & let God sort em out).  

Anonymous's picture

No K-Y… no reacharound…

What did Ned Beatty expect, running around the woods looking like THAT???

He was just begging for it!!

Anonymous's picture

Andrew Ross Sorkin also playing the part of establishment patsy, what a surprise ....

Anonymous's picture

Giant incredulous pussy.." why dont the other analysts see it like you"?

Mark Beck's picture

If I may, let me expand on the financial report realitive to the conference call facts, and we get, as described in the clip, Discrepancies.

But, at some point, when the numbers diverge too much we should just call it a non-truth, or better yet a LIE. The accountants should have had their 10-Q position firmly established and a one-pager presented to upper management before any conference call to share holders.

Lets add it up. The financials are spasmodic, and the quarter conference call data has huge descrepancies with the filing. In the clip it shows the ignorance of some members on the panel, that financial facts can some how be brushed aside as irrelavent in terms of judging the companies health. In the end, the filing and conference call data is all we really have. This pragmatic look at the facts, is what should guide us in understanding the true financial position of a corporation or a country.


So this brings me to the heart of the matter. Trust in the financials is the corner stone of equity investing. More importantly, the ability to guage corporate health is a neccesity in promoting private sector economic growth. To openly corrupt this "trust" through meddling with FASB and not addressing off-balance-sheet derivative positions obviously designed to hide capital requirements, illustrates the economic ignorance of our policy makers.

Also interesting is that during periods of economic hardship we have Banks (well some banks) out performing other sectors of the economy. How is this possible? Especially, for a support industry which is reluctant to provide loans (their main product?), and the industry is touted as one of the fasted growing sectors (financials).

Well this is all very suspect. It is as suspect as pretending a heavily sided consumer economy is sustainable. That is, looking towards the consumer to spend without considering how, in economic terms, they received a fair or even flat wage growth relative to real inflation.

The facts speak for themselves, if we only take the time to listen.

Mark Beck

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