Ben Davies On Variant Perceptions, Betting Against The Grain, And Debunking Prevailing Myths

Tyler Durden's picture

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trav7777's picture

This idiot thinks that this whole thing is a cyclical hiccup.

The notion that the Heisenberg Principle is as he says is absurd and he should be slapped for describing it like a matter of "likeliness" and attempting to relate it to some broader principle about economics.  This is just rubbish.  Leave the science to scientists.

andy55's picture

You seem to have Davies pegged wrong. Did you read the full text?

In any case, don't miss his King World interview from a couple months ago (linked below) -- Davies is WAY out ahead of the curve and is intensely macro-analytical.   His views/models are impressively cohesive, robust, and highly consistent with facts, human behavioral dynamics, and history. Also note he is a literary, historical, and philosophy enthusiast, which serves one in many ways more than modern numerical/TA approaches in the long run.

Ben Davies and Jim Rickards really have things figured out imho.


sandorgb's picture

thank you very much for the videos, andy55. much appreciated

Spalding_Smailes's picture

-- Turkey: the Ottoman Empire will return. Great enduring demographics and entrepreneurial spirit.




Really ? Whats going to drive up the GDP ? Tech ?


This guy is a moron, next ....

Fraud-Esq's picture

Their geopolitical status! (and their tremendous U.S. lobby)

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Really ?

So the ottoman empire is about to .... really. Hmmmmmmm.

Lets Hang Parliament's picture

SS - you should travel more - out of the county for a start..

i-dog's picture

Indeed. You can spot those on here who have never been out of the country from a mile off! All epithets and no reasoning ... all hat, no cattle.

PeterSchump's picture

The Ottomans almost conquered Europe plenty of times.  This time, they will.

Oh regional Indian's picture


"A summer intern reminded me years later of the advice I had given him on his first day at work. I told him that ideally he should be able to tell me, in two minutes, four things:

  1. The idea.
  2. The consensus view.
  3. His variant perception (a well-rounded view that is meaningfully different from consensus view).
  4. A trigger event.

"No mean feat. In those instances where there was no variant perception I generally had no interest and would discourage investing


Overall, brilliant. Wise old men are a rarity. Wise young men too actually.

Always a warm fuzzy feeling when you feel you learn something!


HarryWanger's picture

Here comes the ramp. I reiterate from last night, open solidly lower than ramp up throughout the day to flat/green. That sets up a huge tomorrow.

Even with CSCO getting the shit beat out of it, the rest of the market shrugs and off it goes.

slaughterer's picture

I would go along with that.  As long as the PMs lead the rally in PM terms.

SheepDog-One's picture

Who cares about stocks? Theyre dead. Even the ramp job from DOW 6,500 to 11,400 resulted in a loss of purchasing power for the entire move. Its all BS Harry, wise up.

HarryWanger's picture

So let me get this straight - you say it's better to have made no dollars than to have made a lot? Even with purchasing power down, only a moron would say it's better to have made none than a lot. I don't get that line of thinking at all.

SheepDog-One's picture

A Dollar-Devaluation Adjusted Market Has Barely Moved Above Its 2009 Lows | zero hedge

Read it and weep Harry. You can keep jabbering about bullshit stocks all day, but I dont care if you get 100 points up in the DOW daily you havent made shit, and won't going forward. Youre spinning your tires while the tach reads 8,000 RPM's youre sitting still.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Talk about spreading rumors.( like robo-)


If you bought CROX 2 years ago at 1 or 2 bucks and sell today for $16.00, how much of a gain is that ?????


What if someone uses options ???  Or moves in and out after 5% breakout up or down.... ???


I'm up 7-8% in US Steel over the last week or so & the dollar is up !!!!

SheepDog-One's picture

Best case scenario always works great! Just keep the Windex handy for the rear view mirrors mounted on your monitors.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

I did not have much in the market myself I am just pointing out many people made a killing off the lows around 6-7 grand.

My bud got a call from a friend at a hedgefund and bought crox under a dollar, he spent $4,000. That stock is now $16.00 hes up $60,000 ...

SheepDog-One's picture

Many people made a killing huh? You cite 1 example of some guy who bought Crox, but overall the market rise has yielded a negative buying power result. Notice I didnt say 'no one at all made any money', just in a real world case if you bought the DOW at 6,500 and held till 11,400 youve made zilch.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

If you look many stocks hit rock bottom. They are up hundreds of percent over the last 2 years. And what is the dollar down over that span ......?

LasVegasSands had dropped below $2.00 it over $50 now.

Ford was $1.50-2.00 now its 15 ....

CAT was under $25 now over $80 ...

ect .....

HarryWanger's picture

Spalding, his argument about this never makes any sense. It's obvious that he sat on money afraid to buy stocks and missed the entire run. It's a silly argument. There are hundreds of stocks that fit this bill.

Just the logic of saying you would be better off without MORE devalued dollars than LESS is ludicrous.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

And the second uncle ben even utters the words " rate hike " whats going to happen ?..... The safe haven is back !!! Gold not so much ....

slaughterer's picture

Can anyone intuit exactly WHICH Japanese small-caps will be "skyrocketing" in years to come, according to Ben?  This is a theme I think we should all follow up on in non-ironic tones, as this "value in Japan" tip has been whispered more and more in the best hotel lounges of the West.

anvILL's picture

Okano Valves, Kitz, DOWA, Sumitomo Metals, Organo, SUNX.........
There are some that's not exactly small cap but I still feel these manufacturings are nice in the long run and looks pretty cheap right now to me, although I'm buying gold, silver and mining shares instead despite the extensive costs and hassle to join that trade here in Japan.
I just don't see any event that could trigger people rushing into these stocks today.
I would rather wait untill I see some clear break out of the Nikkei and/or the breakdown of the yen.
Until then, the trend is is my friend.

By the way, I don't see those stocks skyrocketing like 15,000 gold as Ben predicts.
#Disclosure:Well below 30 years of age, trading experience in Japanese manufacturing stocks about 8 years.

SheepDog-One's picture

I notice in this guys speech the underlying tone that it will soon be time for 'the great entrepreneurial spirit' to pick up their decimated corpses and begin going out to bust ass and rebuild from the elites economic terror reign and get busy paying back $220,000 debt stolen from each person in america?

Nah, Im not going to do it, they can kiss my ass.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Double speak from Rumsfeld ...


No, there is nothing certain about economic predictions. Donald Rumsfeld, the former U.S. defense secretary, unwittingly declared it so at a NATO press conference in 2002, when he responded to a question on intelligence gathering:

"It's not the certainties that make life interesting; it's the uncertainties. There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the things we don't know we don't know."

RobD's picture

Are you sure that is not a Yogi Berra quote? LOL

Troublehoff's picture

I hate Donald as much as the next man but that statement was pretty profound.

He knew exactly what he was saying.

mrdenis's picture

I'm a trader ....your a fuckin' gambler ......

wiskeyrunner's picture

Is it time for the stock indexs to rise, they have been im a tight range for the last 4 hours. I suspect we will rally up from here, just can't have a down market, that would make Ben Bernake look like a failure.

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

All those PHd's become worthless if Ben fails.

Fraud-Esq's picture

They're already worthless...

"The Federal Reserve has more PHD's per square foot than any institution in the world" - Alan Greenspan, 2006.


SheepDog-One's picture

Notice since the 'airplane contrail' theres been very little market pumping!

johny2's picture

according to schedule i have, next POMO is tomorow.

SheepDog-One's picture

So? How many Chinese ICBM launches off the CA coast do you think it will take to make their point stick?

johny2's picture

seriously, i dont believe China launched ICBM, but if they did, one would be more than enough.

johny2's picture

Enjoyed reading that. And i dont know about Mongolia and rest of it, but i can see his point about gold going up ( although cant see how it does not support swiss currency )

maybe between the lines he meant to say Swiss does not have strong enough army to keep their gold? Maybe thats what he means about turkeys entrepreneurial spirit.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Getting back to the "LA Missile" story, Michael Savage was discussing this last night.

Almost exactly 3 years ago, a Chinese sub surfaced right next to the USS Kitty Hawk. We had no idea it was there until it was too late. A very, very quiet sub. Hmmm. Did a quiet, Chinese sub slip through our sonar nets earlier this week and fire off a missile?

Certainly seems plausible.

RobD's picture

I'm leaning towards an accidental Trident launch. An accidental launch of a Trident with a bunch of MERVS on board would make us look really, really bad I would think.


Edit: Look for the retirement of a boomer driver in the near future for confirmation. The captain always takes the fall.

SheepDog-One's picture

Thats virtually impossible, 1,000,000,000:1 odds on an 'accidental' ICBM launch.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

I totally agree. The fat finger holds more water ....

an 'accidental' ICBM launch.... Nope ... Not even possible.



SheepDog-One's picture

As someone who was a Mk 41 Vertical Launch system technician for years, I can state with confidence an accidental launch is near impossible, if not totaly impossible. It takes about 20 purposeful steps to launch a missile, Capt safeties have to be engaged, etc. Sure its not the same system, but a nuclear subs launch systems if anything are even more fail safe.

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Thanks for serving !! I love the U.S.A.

RobD's picture

You see I was in the brown shoe Navy and it only took a couple of switch flips and a button push to launch so I will bow to your greater knowledge and have to go along with the shot accross the bow theory. US Navy 82-88 by the way.