Bernanke On The Effects Of Oil Price Shocks, And Why The Fed Will Never Tighten In Response To Oil At Any Price

Tyler Durden's picture

Curious what Bernanke thinks of ongoing oil price shocks? Wondering how long before the great Chairsatan will tighten in response to $120 Brent? The shorts answer - never. But don't take our word for it. Here is a paper titled by the eponymous nemesis of printer cartridge conservation, titled "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks" written when the urge for genocide was just a germ, a seedling if you will, back in the good old 1997. In it, Bernanke, who was yet to make his epochal statement about paradropping crisp Benjamins, makes it all too clear why neither oil at $120 nor oil at $1,120 will be enough to push the FOMC to hike: "an important part of the effect of oil price shocks on the economy results not from the change in oil prices, per se, but from the resulting tightening of monetary policy.” And there you have it: it is not the natural price response to a period of extensively loose monetary policy that is the issue, it is the Fed doing the right thing and ending the spigot that will be the end of the economy, sayeth the Bernank. And somehow this man runs the world...

Full paper below:

Ben Bernanke And Oil Price Shocks

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walcott's picture

TD they're crashing the system intentionally. This is their game plan.

Spitzer's picture


In bernankes mind, he would raise rates if he wanted to crash the system intentionally. The Fed makes its moves so the old system can live another day.

TwoShortPlanks's picture

Not so fast!!!! You don't have to increase rates to cause a contraction, stopping the QE program will do just the same.

My post covers this as best I can exlain it.

How to crash the economy and make it look like an inevitable accident:

Spitzer's picture


So you think that all of bernankes work, like the post above, is all just a coverup ?

They didn't have to bail anyone out if they wanted collapse and there was no public support for the bailouts

TwoShortPlanks's picture

I'm saying this is a very recent decision by the Fed, I never said they planned this all along, you yourself have assumed that.

rich_wicks's picture

So you think that all of bernankes work, like the post above, is all just a coverup ?

Don't you think it's possible that Bernanke was chosen becuase he's an intelligent idiot?

Bernanke believes in what he's doing.  He can pass any lie detector test.  He can speak convincingly of what he's doing, and he's got a PhD and bunch of awards and certificates to prevent him from having any self doubt at all.

Everybody thinks Bernanke is stupid, he's not.  He's just wrong but he's certain he's right.  You think any of us little peons can convince him that he's wrong?  Do you think any amount of history will dissuade him, any example?

The guy has never had a job outside of academia in his life.  He's certain the academic system works.

Meanwhile, anybody that has left academia knows there's a huge difference between what you're taught and reality.  Bernanke never learned that.  He's just read papers written by other idiots who have written papers.  This is not to say he's stupid, he just doesn't have enough actual data to come to a good conclusion.

dark pools of soros's picture

you really think the bernake isn't a puppet??  that he is calling the shots?  right now the dollar is the biggest weapon of mass destruction and is being used to usurp certain MENA entities

i-dog's picture

"Nonsense" back at ya'!

You don't seem to have considered [the possibility] that the aristocrats and oligarchs are first picking the corpse of the middle class clean ... by propping the markets and printing for as long as possible ... after having already skimmed trillions of dollars by way of endless wars and debt obligations on toxic paper. When they are ready, they will pull the plug.

There is hardly a middle class family in America that has clear title to their home -- whether currently mortgaged or not -- but TPTB would prefer to ensure that as many as possible fully realise that they have no hope at all before they close the plantation gates and send in the overseers to manage the daily handouts of gruel. Expect more taxes on property, energy and the environment until you have nothing left.

SparkyvonBellagio's picture


These Families are doing NOTHING for the Human Race.

Unless they're truly Cold Blooded Reptiles (rumors abound lol), they have NO EXCUSE.



Michael's picture

This is for others Sparky,

If you think for one goddamn minute the globalists, oil corporations, and the international banking cartel will let the oil price drop, you need to have your fucking heads examined.

Everything Lindsy Williams says will happen, Will Happen! You puny fucks have no say in the matter whatsoever.

Alex Jones - Lindsey Williams - March 1st 2011 - part 2/3

rich_wicks's picture

We will find out in 2013 if Lindsey Williams is right or not.

If he's right, and he's not been lied to (and I know he's made a lot of incorrect conclusions before) what are you really going to do about it?  You can save up in gold and silver, but how long will that last? 

TruthInSunshine's picture


I can't say I've been on this side before, but it only makes sense if one views everything through the prism of "they're trying to collapse everything."

It sounds conspiratorial, even to me, and even when I'm saying (or writing) it, but they're not ignorant of the consequences of their actions, so what other possible reason could there be for such actions?


I just want to add that these are strange days, and there are a lot of dissenting voices being aired by Fed Governors right now. Whether these are a sincere form of dissent, or some form of theater, I do not know. I have been pondering in my mind whether something political is going on at the Fed, and whether conflict has set in, as the Federal Reserve has just begun to be scrutizined an criticized by a larger percentage of Americans that is has in a long, long time.

Goldtoothchimp09's picture

I know what you mean.  It seems like some sick conspiracy theory...that said -- I wonder how the votes at the FED align with respect to which FED governers are in secretive societies like the Bilderbergers etc. vs. not?!?!

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

And nothing about it matters.  The system is being destroyed.  And yes, it was meant to be, if not by purpose, by reality biting the hand that feeds it; hint the hand is of a dubious nature to say the least.  Luckily, if we have it, this is our opportunity. 

I have two scenarios, which you probably have as well.  Either Ben wants to sit at the kool kids table (Bildeburgers) or he is just a plain old Keynesian shit eater.  I have met plenty of PhD economists that think his policy, Kkkrugman's policy, and the like, is the correct one.  It may seem weird to us that such schooled individuals could be so far off (maybe not, as education is hardly that), but it is true; there are suckers born every minute, and many of them, are very very privileged.

TwoShortPlanks's picture

I agree. The Fed has a lot to gain by collapsing the system and allowing it to restart. It would silence the critics if they stopped printing and then it collpased, true?!

Also, I haven't heard the US accuse the Chinese of 'Currency Manipulation' for over 6 weeks...what gives??? Also, that last FOMC meeting contained nothing of Japan's woes, and seemed as though it was pre-scripted weeks earlier.

Too many things have changed of late.

Spitzer's picture


We really are in the midst of a keynesian experiment, its that simple.

TwoShortPlanks's picture

"keynesian experiment", that's true up until now, but I reckon that all about to change.

Again, you've assumed that I'm alluding to a long-term plan by the, all I'm saying is that they're now seeing the writing on the wall and all keynesian bets are they're about to Tack upwind in the opposite direction.

This change of direction is what I'm saying might cause a collapse, the Fed knows it, and sees a upside to it, that is all.

I am also saying that in the last 6 weeks many [subtle] things have changed, and this smells a little 'Fishy'.

The only downside for me, is that if my hunch is correct, I won't have a bloody internet to tell people like you, 'I Told You So'.

Milton Waddams's picture

A global governance system has been an objective of some, even members of the Federal Reserve, since the end of WW2. This is a fact (see Beardsley Ruml). A fact that turns into a bit of an Alice In Wonderland rabbit hole if one begins to research Cord Meyer and the United World Federalists. But I digress. There can be no global governance when sovereign superpowers exist. The post WW2 communist threat to capitalism delayed the then "20 year plan" of a NWO global governance sheme. Once the Soviet superpower fell in the nineties the sights were turned to the US.

dbTX's picture

The first mention of the NWO I can remember came from Bush 1, shortly after he became President. It's been on a slow grind ever sense.

SparkyvonBellagio's picture

These A-Holes need to go down!

jmc8888's picture

One must not forget the need for useful idiots.

The most useful, are those that BELIEVE they are doing 'god's work', or who studied what 'monetary policy should have been' during the depression.  Yeah, if Bernanke was a french academic in the 50's, he would have studied the 'better way to implement the maginot line'. 

Bernanke is the top working bankster, not the one who owns him (owns the federal reserve).

They hire the most useful idiot (indirectly of course), with all the degrees and awards [created to find these people] signifying he believes the bullshit the most and bested most/all others in using elaborate sophistry as he moved up (err...down the road to hell) the ladder to achieve the banksters owners' goal of finding innovative techniques in never letting their debt, or their overall imperial monetary game, to end.

Bernanke believed his own bullshit.  Whether or not he's getting crazier about it, staying even (and society is just more aware of it now through his actions), or might someday slowly realize some of the damage he has done (but would keep it under wraps..and show a stiff upper lip), is all anyone's guess. But it doesn't matter.  We all know Bernanke is the anti-Glass-Steagall.

EIther way, no matter the politician, if we don't have Glass-Steagall, we're fucked.  Name it something else if you want. 

Call it Suk-Mi/Dik in honor of Japan for all I care.  Just as long as it has the full 1933 meaning and lattitude of the original Glass-Steagall to address the fraud, and it will apply its standards to everything created AFTER Glass-Steagall's weakening, and later repeal, I care not what its name ultimately is.

Pseudo Anonym's picture

Bernanke is the top working bankster, not the one who owns him (owns the federal reserve).

They hire the most useful idiot (indirectly of course)

Who is "they"?  That's what I want to know.

walcott's picture


lindsey williams video excellent. He's been about 100% correct so far.

Goldtoothchimp09's picture

WOW!  Bernanke finally managed to shock me!  He doesn't live in the real world.  We need to End the FED now damnit!  Right NOW!!

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Nothing The Bernank does, irrespective of his past, surprises me anymore.  When he talks, it is just noise.

Fed delenda est.

Buy physical gold now.

Popo's picture

Where's the shock coming from?  Oil has nothing to do with Bernanke's models.  


There is only one force in his world:  Liquidity.  


Everything else is someone else's problem, frankly.

Pseudo Anonym's picture

We need to End the FED now damnit!  Right NOW!!

not to worry.  The Fed will end soon.  By design.  And be replaced by a global central bank such as IMF/BIS/WB.  The hofjuden will see to that.

Destinapp's picture

My video here simplifies it a little:



Goldtoothchimp09's picture

Hilarious video dude...just shared it with all my friends!!

eigenvalue's picture

Then it's uberbullish! 

PhattyBuoy's picture

TD is a machine ... amazing !!

Goldtoothchimp09's picture

I give props to Ron Paul for crusading against the FED over the years.  But given he is the best known critic -- I have to say...NOW is the time.  He could do a much better job explaining the evils of the FED to the population.  He needs to be pounding the media.  I suppose we can all do our part - I know I am.  Raise awareness folks!  Heck, I was explaining things to my volleyball team last week.  One other person was familiar and we were in agreement.  The others admitted they knew NOTHING about it.  Get the word out folks!!!!

spankthebernank's picture

I hate to be morbid about this but, with Paul's on going to crusade to 'end the fed,' I'm suprised he's not dead yet.  Makes me wonder if he's a real threat to help us get this done.

Apart from Reality's picture

The US appears to be about to go through a 1970's UK experience.  It wont be pretty.

jkruffin's picture

Everyone, and everyone you know, should be flooding Congress with calls and letters to end this QE experiment, before it ruins the entire middle class and many more jobs. QE helps no one except Wall Street crooks and bankers, the facts don't lie.  Price manipulation is illegal, and Congress needs to file charges on Benny Boy now before he tries to flee with his ill gotten gains of his Goldman buddies.

CD's picture

You guys are just plain jealous. The Fed is SUCH an important, informative and reliable source of information and education. None of us have any right to even question, let alone criticize its/His actions, until we have thoroughly studied ALL of these enlightening publications, courtesy of our very own Reserve Bank - I am only surprised Tyler does not reference them more often:

On monetary policy:

Scarcity, resources, supply and demand concepts:

Full set of instructional materials:

And last but not least, the spanking new blog we all should be frequenting for hard-hitting economic news/analysis instead of ZH:

EDIT: I thought this was too obvious to warrant a /sarc/ tag, or perhaps junkers are trolling here instead of downloading porn to their non-Federal, non-Governmental computers...


tmosley's picture

This is the most boring zombie movie ever.

knukles's picture

Blah blah blah blah blah....
After another hard day in the Fed's Office of Macroeconomic Research, there's nothing like a relaxing hour of Electroconvulsive Anti-Depressive Shock Therapy Treatment.

reader2010's picture

Great. Dow 3,600,000,000.

QuantumCat's picture

Maybe the Bernank just follows the market (  Maybe it is all of our dumb asses believing in the myth and borrowing his cheap money to speculate on various assets... ie, BTFD, that provides the charlatan with more power than he actually has.  Pathetic little sheep are we.  

gall batter's picture

most americans don't know, and many wouldn't care, that what the Fed is doing is unconstitutional. explaining to the volleyball team?  i was explaining to my book club.  not one person knew that the Fed is private and that BenBer was appointed by Obama.     

Yen Cross's picture

Keep up the good work. Play the barter system with the kids. Ipod sales? Keep em interested.

Peak Everything's picture

I think Bernanke understands the dire implications of QE. But he also understands Joe Average is not ready for austerity and the elite are not ready for hair cuts. So he tries to strike a balance and hopes that everyone else goes down first.

medicalstudent's picture

come on guys...


towing the economy, or the business cycle, or periods of inflation followed by deflation... this is how the banks pilfer; much like the oceans waves wear the sands. two forward, one back, until it breaks.


...and this only works when a contraction would not result in massive default domino spree.  as our monetary system is in the late final expansion phase, raising rates to tank commodity prices and then inflating later on to buy them all up will not work.


bernancor knows he has to expand at an increasing rate (or the same nominal rate at a smaller time interval), and the required rate of (nominal) expansion now is so high that tightening would herald the end of man.


celente says he pumped 20 trillion into the system in 2008; think about that.

Yen Cross's picture

Just spoke with some friends on West Coast USA. ( quote) 4.65 per gallon of fuel in Point Loma. 3.75 a gallon in Chula Vista.  A 20 gallon tank of gas is closing in on the magical 100. Inflation is upon us. These prices are for regular unleaded.

Ensane's picture

4.03 in Orange County. Only fill up once a month so its not painful, but hurts to look at.

snowball777's picture

Yup...paid $54 and change for a 12 gallon tank on Friday. New name for a partial tank -> short bet.