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Bernanke Nomination Still Not A Done Deal, Say GOP, Democratic Sources on Capitol Hill
I thought the readers of ZeroHedge would like to see excerpts from the note we put out for clients of the IRA Advisory Service earlier today. Despite the confidence of Treasury Secretary Tim Geither, who is well known for his keen political instincts, the Bernanke nomination is far from a done deal.
"As of this morning, our contacts in the GOP leadership say that the White House is just shy of 50 votes in favor of the reappointment of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. The positive media headlines on this count are being driven by a relentless, all weekend long push by the White House, including personal telephone calls from President Obama."
"There are still at least 10 more votes to be won before Bernanke’s nomination is ready for floor action and, even then, our sources in the Democratic leadership say that they do not want to bring the matter to the floor unless there are a couple of extra votes in the back pocket in case Senators who have indicated support for the nomination change their minds."
"The White House spin in the media today is “overly optimistic” according to our GOP sources, who say that one more public revelation regarding the Fed or Bernanke himself could kill the nomination."
"The poll numbers regarding Bernanke are “dreadful,” to quote one 20-year veteran of the Democratic leadership and the big concern by the Democrats remains another revolt by members of the left wing of the Democratic Party."
"We remain very cautious regarding the “Bernanke will be approved” drumbeat because the Obama White House has shown itself to be particularly incompetent when it comes to counting votes on Capitol Hill. Counting money, of course, is another matter."
-- Chris
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"revolt by members of the left wing of the Democratic Party."
Can't wait to see them in the fetal position for the rest of their careers. Mental illness should be treated not elected. Anyway 86ing Ben if it doesn't yield transparency is going to help how?
Bernanke failure with a clandestine liquidity mop-up will assure a great fall in the indexes.
All very explainable. An easy way to relieve outsiders of their speculative cash AND deflate the baloon a little again.
When personalities, rumours, and algorithms sway a volatile market more than fundamentals...wise stewards shepard their wealth in form of PMs.
time to call your senator-shits....
Come on hedgers, It will be closer than he'd like but right now Ben will get his votes. Once a nomination like this becomes political, Senators will always wait to see what's going on before they make a decision. Of course those Senators running for re-election will be given a pass...a no vote.
Have we learned nothing about Obama yet? He is not going to throw Geithner over the boat or Bernanke. Did you hear him today? He was talking about how smart Joe Biden is!
What's not been said is the games that are being played on the debt limit which has been somewhat aligned with the Fed debate.
Come on hedgers, It will be closer than he'd like but right now Ben will get his votes. Once a nomination like this becomes political, Senators will always wait to see what's going on before they make a decision. Of course those Senators running for re-election will be given a pass...a no vote.
Have we learned nothing about Obama yet? He is not going to thow Geithner over the boat or Bernanke. Did you hear him today? He was talking about how smart Joe Biden is!
What's not been said is the games that are being played on the debt limit which has been somewhat aligned with the Fed debate.
"Have we learned nothing about Obama yet?"
how bout them gray hairs?!
I just phone Reid's D.C. office at 5:00 p.m. eastern and the representative told me that Reid has not filed the cloture motion as of this time and he has not made a statement yet.
202.224.3542
"Wizard is that you behind the curtain?" - Dorothy
I can't believe that the future of the entire world economy depends on Bernanke. Eric Hardmeyer of The Bank of North Dakota should get the job. The BND has weathered every Fed generated boom/bust without a scratch.
If BS Bernanke wins nomination, it is the death of the democrats. if he doesn't get in, they live to fight (bicker?) another day.
3:30pm and no announcement on Cloture filing yet.
Think about timing. Obama state of the Union and Geithner's testimony t-54 and t-40 hours, respectively. One might assume if Reid doesn't have the votes b/f those events, he will never get them after (especially after Tiny Tim speaks/lies).
Thx Lizzy...been keeping my eye out looking for the cloture filing as well.
I was shocked! shocked!....to see that Robert Byrd will be voting yes.
Chris:
Thank you VERY much for reporting on this!
Once the bernanke matter is concluded, how about some thoughts on:
1. FASB 157.....is this going to go on eternally?
2. FASB 166/167.... I've yet to see anybody write about this and the pass that the FDIC gave out per their 12-16-09 declaration.
Many thanks for sharing your insights.
If this government is legitimate, then why hasn't Congress / Senate held formal investigations and open hearings on Credit Default Swaps, Collateralized Debt Obligations & fraudulently securitized toxic mortgage backed securities ?
The financial system is still crippled by bad banks and a lack of trust in the authorities. Things have not been able to progress and are getting worse .The government needs to act to try to find anyone who is guilty and punish those people. That is important for the country to heal.
"From 1998-2008, Wall Street investment firms, commercial banks, hedge funds, real estate companies and insurance conglomerates made political contributions totaling $1.725 billion and spent another $3.4 billion on lobbyists -- a financial juggernaut aimed at undercutting federal regulation." ...that's an average of one million $, per year, per politician in bribes from the financial sector ALONE.
http://www.albionmonitor.com/0902a/copyright/wallstderegulation.html
http://www.takeitbackday.org/
How about deliberately not paying back a loan to a government insured institution? Or misrepresentations on the loan application?? Felonies??
ZH needs a LOT more Chris Whalen and a lot less madhedgefundtrader. Also, anyone hyping small-cap Chinese solar stocks hour-by-hour should be reconsidered as a frequent poster.
+1
see more whalen at his IRA website -- a ~weekly piece linked on the left column - ALWAYS a great read.
http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/www/index.asp
+1
SEC mulled national security status for AIG details
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60N1S220100124
"The request to keep the details secret were made by the New York Federal Reserve -- a regulator that helped orchestrate the bailout -- and by the giant insurer itself, according to the emails."
Oh yea, we need to stick with the current team alright.
As a few have pointed out before me, there is no guarantee that his replacement will change FED policy. The preponderance of evidence suggests that it will get much worse.
Fist we had Bush I, who was replaced by Clinton, who was then replaced by the second kleptocrat, Bush II, only to be replaced by the community activist from Chicago.
If you ask me, it looks as if the more you "F" up the faster you get promoted. From lousey governor of Arkansas to President, and from failed baseball manager to President, and from failed community activist from Chicago to President.
Reminds me of the Roman Empire where they replaced one emperor with another that was more repugnant than the one that preceded it.
What I don't get is why the far political left is upset with Bernanke, he did exactly as he was told, mainly to print endless wads of money to be spent on worthless government causes.
Intrade thinks otherwise 95 bid on reconfirmation.
I wanted to get my bet in before it got that high but thanks for the reminder.
Take it to the bank: Bernochio gets another term whether the entire population likes it or not. All that matters to those responsible for appointing him is does he give them what they order him to give them.
He is a bought and paid for shill for Lord Blankfein, AIPAC, and other members of the Tribe.
Chris Whalen is a rock star. All this happened on Bernanke's watch with his "oversight"
Leaked e-mails reveal a concerted effort to keep dealings with American International Group confidential.http://www.forbes.com/2010/01/25/federal-reserve-aig-bailouts-business-wall-street-leaks.html?boxes=businesschannelsections
Chris, when Reid actually files for cloture I'll believe they have the votes.
Reid made a statement about filing two weeks ago... didn't happen, and then another one on Friday, phrased as coming "as early as" today. They've got a big perception problem, IMO, if they miss the 31st.
I repeat, how exactly did Bernanke "help avoid the Great Depression" as his supporters claim?
I keep seeing that as the rationale behind his re-appointment, but I have seen no evidence that any of his programs actually did just that.
Undoubtedly we had a panic in the fall of 2008, as banks refused to lend to each other, and borrowers were afraid to "lend" to banks through their deposits, as no one knew who the next to go would be.
Who stemmed that panic? Not Bernanke. It was the FDIC and the Treasury, through guarantees on interbank lending, deposit insurance, TARP, and money market guarantees.
What did the Fed do? They handed out money to specially connected institutions. It was the FED that bailed out AIG and paid its counterparties 100 cents on the dollar. It was the FED that fast-tracked approving Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to become BHCs. It was the FED that overpays for agency MBS and debt, effectively bailing out Fannie and Freddie, while Ginnie Mae MBS trades pretty much normally.
The Fed bought 300B of USTs, to what effect? Interest rates actually went up, and after they stopped buying, didn't move much at all.
TALF is pretty inconsequential in the big scheme of things, though once again it was a nice way of overpaying for dubiously-rated ABS.
Dropping interest rates to zero? Even a child could have figured that one out.
So what exactly did this "student of the Great Depression" do? So he didn't repeat the mistakes of the Fed during the depression and tighten money, great. But that doesn't mean ANY of his actions were proactive in avoiding another one. The FDIC and Treasury were far more instrumental in pulling us back from the brink than anything the Fed did. The Fed did exactly what it does best - hand out money to its constituent banks.
Some fucking hero he is.
+1 Ghostface
The promotion is that he prevented Depression2. The joke is upon us. He prevented nothing.
As far as I can tell, all that has happened is that Helicopter Ben and Tiny Tim put off Depression2 for a few years at best. Just as the debt to income ratio was more extreme in 2007 vs. the 1930's, this retracement rally has been somewhat longer. And just like the 1930's, in the face of massive insolvency, the debt to income has increased, not declined. All that has been done is to transfer some of it from private hands to the public. Their play will fail as the underlying value added productive enterprise of the US has been trashed by corporations looking for profits over what is best for the country. They shipped our jobs off shore and lent us money to make up the difference.
If you don't have a job or even when you do and your real after tax disposable income is in decline vs. actual costs, there is no way to pay more to service more debt.
This pattern of more debt and less disposable income has been going on for a couple of decades. It was ameliorated by more and more debt.. Now that cycle has broken and the new cycle is more and more defaults and lower tax revenues. There is no longer any way to pay for more and more debt.
None of Big Ben's action have alleviated household insolvency which has lead to business insolvency which has lead to lay offs which circled back to more household insolvency. Nothing Ben has done has broken this cycle. All he and Timmy have done has been to insure the bonuses of their handlers.
The beat still goes on. BO and his are doing a Hoover on us.
And going forward we still have deravitives
Bernanke helped stabilize home prices in the $20+ million range in the Hamptons, and he guaranteed a continuing supply of snot-nosed students for Choate, Lawrenceville, and Phillips Exeter/Andover.
Isn't that enough for one man, one life?
Bernanke MUST be reconfirmed, otherwise I am sitting in a room full of useless Gold, Silver, Lead, and "hardware"...
Not correct. You're sitting on the correct instruments of survival to maintain life and the value of your current purchasing power.
The end has already been written (it won't be pretty) and it will proceed regardless of whether Benny is in or out. It's simply a matter of time - hold your goods.
Fear not! No matter who they confirm the power behind the throne as it were will keep Fed policy the same aka "Kill the Dollar! Enrich the Elite!" I just want a new face to place my hate on.
not true Selah. those items will do well either way. who's gonna go in that won't print. our fiscal deficits are structural and are not easily fixed, dem or repub trying to fix. gold and silver can do well in deflation as well, not that in the long run that will be the problem
It was all Reid. Another bus accident imminent.
Feinstein came out for BB today. The Status Quo is her style, so that isn't surprising. She probably won't run again. I wouldn't be surprised to see her seat turn over to the GOP. Boxer took the heat all during Bush, which may be why she is against the nomination. This is really a mirror in some ways of the immigration issue, in which Democrats and (O)Bush(ama) agreed, while Congressional Republicans blocked the bill.
Feinstein might be planning a run for the up-for-grabs CA Governator's seat. Boxer is up for reelection in '10. So both positions on Ben make political sense...one for, one against. Reid is toast no matter which direction he goes, but he believes the Obama Magic will save him in NV this November ( not likely ) so he needs to deliver on Ben.
Senator Diane Feinstein (D), California--has announced support for Bernanke, while Sen. Boxer (D) will oppose.
Feinstein is a perpetual putz--and all Californian constituites should e-mail her office immediately! Google her, and e-mail the putz.
Boxer has also been a co-sponsor of S 604 (Saunder's bill to audit the Fed) for a while now. So her opposition to Bernanke is not surprising. Nor is Feinstein's support of Bernanke and refusal to co-sponsor S 604.