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Bernanke Reconfirmation Odds Plunge From Near-Certainty To 78%

Tyler Durden's picture


InTrade's latest market on Bernanke reconfirmation is 77.5x79, better bid, with some serious bid interest below 72. There is a size seller at 85. Yesterday, the market closed at 93, and was at 95 since the contract inception. The question is if Harry Reid's last minute endorsement will push the odds higher yet again. However, things are not so certain: Democrats have a busy agenda for next week - they have to make a vote on America's bankruptcy first ($1.9 trillion debt ceiling extension), and then there is the whole state of the union address... And the real question - when will Proshares and BlackRock start selling a qunituple leveraged ETF that will decay 99% by the time it hits Cede & Co.


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Sat, 01/23/2010 - 01:49 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 01:52 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 19:32 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 01:58 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 01:59 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 02:44 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Phuck him and the helicopter he rode in on.

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 02:48 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 02:52 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 02:55 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 14:54 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

Thank you.

FYI, Harry Reid is in the "yes" column and this was widely covered late yesterday after market close.


Sat, 01/23/2010 - 03:23 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 03:46 | Link to Comment Stu
Stu's picture

what is this a casino ?

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 03:48 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 06:11 | Link to Comment George the baby...
George the baby crusher's picture

With or without Ben? I'm thinking that the people who pull Ben's strings, will pull the next guy's just as hard. The rape of the American people has began and they won't stop till they come, sorry I mean finish the job.

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 06:21 | Link to Comment Stu
Stu's picture

amen george


sheep continue to get sheared


appreciate the candor here i must say

keep it up !

these f**ks ...


keep up the good fight

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 07:00 | Link to Comment George the baby...
George the baby crusher's picture

The roughing up, tearing off the clothes, that's called QE1.  The actually penetration QE2. The withdrawal, zipping up and leaving the scene of the crime QE3.  Wham bam, thank you ma'am.  Anything but bad language under these circumstances  would be defying nature Stu.

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 07:51 | Link to Comment Stu
Stu's picture

you took the words right out of my mouth brother.



you said it but its too late the words are loosed like a cougar on the hills.


wish upon a star but not every wish comes true


but some do

time tells

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 13:19 | Link to Comment Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Why do you care? You don't live in the US?

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 08:09 | Link to Comment Stu
Stu's picture

I sweat to frkn God most pplare zombies.


I attest to that thru my best friend, zombie on tape.


Not as good as your perceived boogie/zombie man.


but then agaqin, I could be wrong.

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 09:20 | Link to Comment jm
jm's picture

Guys, main street is dying.  The second derivative of unemployment turned positive just as QE is slowing down.

QE--like it or not-- is probably what kept the whole shithouse from going up in flames. 

I know that Ben and the rest of those cocksuckers should have let contract law do its work this past year.  If a bank needed gov money, the bank's shareholders should have been wiped out first.  Every board member and executive officer of those zombies should have been ass-canned.  Get rid of Ben, I don't care about that son of a bitch.

However, not raising the debt ceiling and otherwise tying the hands of the govt to have any flexibility given the disaster we are in is only going to make things worse for the guy who needs a job to live.  How high does unemployment have to go before people see how fucked everything is?

Let's get rid of the backstops.  But let's do it thoughtfully.  Can the withdraw kill a heroin addict?  I don't wanna know in this situation. 

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 09:59 | Link to Comment Stu
Stu's picture

nobody coulda said they didnt see it coimng


no sorrows for stupidity

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 10:15 | Link to Comment George the baby...
George the baby crusher's picture

It's a catch 22 situation I agree.  But I'm afraid that in the long run, we'll look back and say, "The operation was a success, but the patient died."  They've started something, life support, but the patient looks pretty terminal from where I'm standing.

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Heroin addicts die of overdose, not withdrawl. It's time for America to put down the needle.

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 11:49 | Link to Comment jm
jm's picture

A patient with a major artery cut needs a transfusion or he dies.

We'll get the market crash.  And there will be QE2.0, QE++, and QE#.

I want to keep the 50 tapeworms in the senate and the leader of the united state of disillusion from getting a cut of the action.

Before you scream "End the Fed", think through what we are going to replace it with, and how to keep the QE process transparent, unpolitical, and rational.  

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 14:53 | Link to Comment jm
jm's picture

If we all go to the stone age one consolation is that fuck-ups like you won't survive the first five days.


Sat, 01/23/2010 - 12:32 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

The equity capitalisation is nothing in the scale of things and the protection of shareholders is beyond a farce , bond holders should at the very least become the shareholders and in my opinion should not even get be in the game.

The dollar would rally hugely in this scenario as the remaining dollars would be worth far more. Also capital would flow to productive uses and their would not be any more careless waste of precious capital that has been the hallmark of BBs bright ideas to save the planet.

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 10:24 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

He will get exactly the number he needs and not one more. I predict those senators up for re-election in '10 will strangely show a "no" bias. Politics as usual.

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 10:30 | Link to Comment pros
pros's picture




Sat, 01/23/2010 - 10:42 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture's all about the cloture vote....i'll send a piece up to you later today on this for your review as well as to share the details for fellow zh'ers.  Reid is scheduled to file the cloture motion on monday. 

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 11:01 | Link to Comment DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Good read, but I think he will get confirmed. He is the heroin dealer and Congress is the Heroin addicts.  

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 11:09 | Link to Comment Madcow
Madcow's picture

falling income x rising taxes = deflationary abyss

the pyramid structure of rents and bonds and debt covenants and accounting theories must have new new cash to survive. money in circulation is falling - and there's nothing the "authorities" can do about it. any person, business, corporation, public entity or government that is not presently cash flow positive pretty much immediately falls to zero. 

look for more and more draconian public take-overs as various business models and supply chains break down due to lack of cash flow. when food is no longer available for purchase in the grocery stores of new york city and london, there will be a frantic attempt to lighten tax and debt burdens and to get cash back in circulation. but it will be too late. 

i can see the ideas taking shape within the fed, ecb, imf, bis, etc ... they think governments can manage a long term deflationary adjustment and actually use it constructively to re-align public priorities, resource utilization, infrastructure, etc.  but they are wrong. the central planners are severely underestimating the power and velocity of the deflationary contraction, and have not yet recognized their impotence. they have brought knives to a gun fight, and will be cut down. 

maybe quite literally - especially in big cities on the coasts that are self sufficient food wise and are hopelessly dependent upon "income" taxes. 


keynesian economic theory is dangerously irrelevant in present financial conditions and economic circumstances.  


It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so. 
Mark Twain 





Sat, 01/23/2010 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Jefferson
Jefferson's picture

Simon Johnson is now recommending Obama nominate G-30 member Paul Krugman to be the next Fed Chairman.

The support for Bernanke in the Senate hangs by a thread – with Harry Reid providing a message of support, albeit lukewarm, after the markets close.  The White House is telling people that if Bernanke is not reconfirmed there will be chaos in the markets and the economic recovery will be derailed.  This is incorrect.

The danger here is uncertainty – the markets fear a prolonged policy vacuum.  Fortunately, there is a way to address this.  Ben Bernanke should withdraw and the president should nominate Paul Krugman to take his place.

Since Simon wrote the playbook on how the IMF successfully takes out local financial oligarchs based on his prior work experience, we can only surmise that Krugman is the right man to snuff out the competition and implement the proposed G-30 scheme. He is a Noble Prize winner after all.

The only thing Simon doesn't really disclose are the oligarchs the IMF installs to replace the local money merchants. But since the softer, gentler IMF is fully on board with the climate change initiative and is advocating a carbon tax denominated in SDRs, we should have absolutely nothing to worry about.

Anyone for a helping of Soylent Green?

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 12:57 | Link to Comment uno
uno's picture

This is where the banks and NY Fed go into Armageddon mode, using their nuclear option to destroy their host and everything around them.  Just wonder how the USD behaves.  I thought this market meltdown would happen if the Audit the Fed bill passed.


Banana Ben is going to be re-confirmed this week for heading the interest rate policy.  The Senate is voting on something else, it is overseeing the banking system.  So we get banana boy for another year at least of managing interest rates.

From Fed Website:

Chairman and a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Dr. Bernanke also serves as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the System's principal monetary policymaking body.


That is what he is going to be re-confirmed this week by the Board of Governors - Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the System's principal monetary policymaking body.

Sat, 01/23/2010 - 14:51 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 15:17 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sat, 01/23/2010 - 16:16 | Link to Comment delacroix
delacroix's picture

they're beginning to treat us like palestinians

Sun, 01/24/2010 - 11:50 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

The Founding Fathers wrote in the original and still legal documents that guide the United States of America that anyone who devalues the currency is guilty of treason. Such a treasonous act is punishable by death. Since the Federal Reserve is guilty of devaluing the US dollar, the Federal Reserve in whole including their main representatives (Benjamin Shalom Bernanke), board and members will soon be facing a lawsuit for treason. Now that you are aware of this fact, it is time for all Americans to inform their representatives of this fact. Any representative who votes for Benjamin Shalom Bernanke yet knows of this fact is also guilty of aiding treasonous acts against the United States of America. There is a wind of change happening in America, and this wind can not be stopped.

Thomas Jefferson warned of the damage that would be caused if the people assigned control of the money supply to the banking sector, "I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. Already they have raised up a money aristocracy that has set the government at defiance. This issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of the moneyed corporations which already dare to challenge our Government to a trial of strength and bid defiance to the laws of our country" Thomas Jefferson, 1791


"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen."
-- Samuel Adams, speech at the Philadelphia State House, August 1, 1776.

Sun, 01/24/2010 - 12:33 | Link to Comment Lungimaster
Lungimaster's picture

Obama's proposal has been in making for quite some time, and it's a coincidence that its announcement comes just after liberals losing the seat.

From Mankiw's correspondence:

Oddly enough, this is one of those cases where the whole thing could be a self-fulfilling prophecy. The policy announcement had nothing to do with Bernanke, but now the sharks are scenting blood, inTrade is putting Bernanke's odds of confirmation much lower, and a lot of Senators are starting to waver and back off and say they won't vote to confirm him, so now maybe he can't get through. If not for the misinterpretation of the get-tough-on-banks move, though, Bernanke's standing would not have changed.

Mon, 01/25/2010 - 00:20 | Link to Comment Anonymous
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