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Bernanke Reconfirmation Odds Plunge From Near-Certainty To 78%
InTrade's latest market on Bernanke reconfirmation is 77.5x79, better bid, with some serious bid interest below 72. There is a size seller at 85. Yesterday, the market closed at 93, and was at 95 since the contract inception. The question is if Harry Reid's last minute endorsement will push the odds higher yet again. However, things are not so certain: Democrats have a busy agenda for next week - they have to make a vote on America's bankruptcy first ($1.9 trillion debt ceiling extension), and then there is the whole state of the union address... And the real question - when will Proshares and BlackRock start selling a qunituple leveraged ETF that will decay 99% by the time it hits Cede & Co.
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The market is not high enough for the pro share quantuple etf. BB has to come back and prop trading limits reduced to a joke. The we can go back to business as ususl and sp=1600-2000. Then we get the new quantuple etf with easier rules for shorting. Then you get a "tough" FEd chairman who will have none of it,jack the interest a couple of time,panic ensues,and the new trasfer of the couple of trillions that is left of the middle class wealth commence. Its gotta be a gradual and incremental,and planned carefully...
78% is way too high....let us know when it drops
to.....zero
Goldman's prop desk probably manipulates Intrade contracts
to influence market sentiment.
its still way too high...
its still way too high...
Phuck him and the helicopter he rode in on.
It appears the coming market volatility is going to be "blamed" on Ben's confirmation controversy. Doesn't matter. Market makers want to and will drop prices as quick as possible. Ben's potential confirmation will provide the excuse in the press (cover) for the drop. Doesn't matter who the fed chairman is or what the fed does. Stocks are going down.
Please CALL the undecided senators:
LEVIN, Carl (D-MI) phone: 202-224-6221 Fax: 202-224-1388
zipcodes if asked - pick one Lansing:48906 thru 48919 except 48914 Flint: 48501 thru 48507 Grand Rapids:49501 thru 49510 Farmington:48331 thru 48336 Holland:49422 thru 49424 Kalamazoo:49003 thru 49009 Traverse City 49684 thru 49686
MIKULSKI, Barbara A. (D-MD) phone: 202-224-4654 Fax: 202-224-8858
zipcodes if asked - pick one Baltimore:21209 thru 21218 Ocean City:21842-21843 Columbia:21044 thru 21046 Ellicott:21041 thru 21043 Silver Spring:20901 thru 20911
NELSON, Ben (D-NE) phone: 202-224-6551 Fax: 202-228-0012
zipcodes if asked - pick one Omaha:68101 thru 68112 Lincoln:68501 thru 68512 Bellevue:68005
NELSON, Bill (D-FL)Phone: 202-224-5274 Fax: 202-228-2183
zipcodes if asked - pick one Jacksonville:32201 thru 32212 Miama:33124 thru 33138 Tampa:33601 thru 33626 Orlando:32801 thru 32812 St. Petersburg:33701 thru 33716
REID, Harry (D-NV)Phone: 202-224-3542 Fax: 202-224-7327
zipcodes if asked - pick one Las Vegas:89101 thru 89157 Henderson:89011 thru 89016 except 89013 Reno:89501 thru 89513
Note that MIKULSKI and REID are running for another term. Those 2 really need special attention.
Thanks!
Please CALL the undecided senators:
LEVIN, Carl (D-MI) phone: 202-224-6221 Fax: 202-224-1388
zipcodes if asked - pick one Lansing:48906 thru 48919 except 48914 Flint: 48501 thru 48507 Grand Rapids:49501 thru 49510 Farmington:48331 thru 48336 Holland:49422 thru 49424 Kalamazoo:49003 thru 49009 Traverse City 49684 thru 49686
MIKULSKI, Barbara A. (D-MD) phone: 202-224-4654 Fax: 202-224-8858
zipcodes if asked - pick one Baltimore:21209 thru 21218 Ocean City:21842-21843 Columbia:21044 thru 21046 Ellicott:21041 thru 21043 Silver Spring:20901 thru 20911
NELSON, Ben (D-NE) phone: 202-224-6551 Fax: 202-228-0012
zipcodes if asked - pick one Omaha:68101 thru 68112 Lincoln:68501 thru 68512 Bellevue:68005
NELSON, Bill (D-FL)Phone: 202-224-5274 Fax: 202-228-2183
zipcodes if asked - pick one Jacksonville:32201 thru 32212 Miama:33124 thru 33138 Tampa:33601 thru 33626 Orlando:32801 thru 32812 St. Petersburg:33701 thru 33716
REID, Harry (D-NV)Phone: 202-224-3542 Fax: 202-224-7327
zipcodes if asked - pick one Las Vegas:89101 thru 89157 Henderson:89011 thru 89016 except 89013 Reno:89501 thru 89513
Note that MIKULSKI and REID are running for another term. Those 2 really need special attention.
Thanks!
Thank you.
FYI, Harry Reid is in the "yes" column and this was widely covered late yesterday after market close.
So in sportsbook parlance I'd be getting about 4 to 1 odds against him. I'll throw a ben out there to get 4 back at this point if he goes down.
Any Tim Donaghy's out there know the inside inside game on Mr. Heli's renom? Anybody want to be my bookie for this?
what is this a casino ?
Everyone this weekend needs to email their senators and say no to a Bernanke reappointment. Don't let Warren Buffett scare the public into reappointing this failed chairman.
Warren Buffett, when asked in a CNBC interview this week what would happen if Mr. Bernanke weren't confirmed, said, "Well, just tell me a day ahead of time so I can sell some stocks."
Screw Buffet and Goldman Sachs!!! The end is near!
With or without Ben? I'm thinking that the people who pull Ben's strings, will pull the next guy's just as hard. The rape of the American people has began and they won't stop till they come, sorry I mean finish the job.
amen george
sheep continue to get sheared
appreciate the candor here i must say
keep it up !
these f**ks ...
keep up the good fight
must.watch.my.language.
The roughing up, tearing off the clothes, that's called QE1. The actually penetration QE2. The withdrawal, zipping up and leaving the scene of the crime QE3. Wham bam, thank you ma'am. Anything but bad language under these circumstances would be defying nature Stu.
you took the words right out of my mouth brother.
you said it but its too late the words are loosed like a cougar on the hills.
wish upon a star but not every wish comes true
but some do
time tells
Why do you care? You don't live in the US?
I sweat to frkn God most pplare zombies.
I attest to that thru my best friend, zombie on tape.
Not as good as your perceived boogie/zombie man.
but then agaqin, I could be wrong.
Guys, main street is dying. The second derivative of unemployment turned positive just as QE is slowing down.
QE--like it or not-- is probably what kept the whole shithouse from going up in flames.
I know that Ben and the rest of those cocksuckers should have let contract law do its work this past year. If a bank needed gov money, the bank's shareholders should have been wiped out first. Every board member and executive officer of those zombies should have been ass-canned. Get rid of Ben, I don't care about that son of a bitch.
However, not raising the debt ceiling and otherwise tying the hands of the govt to have any flexibility given the disaster we are in is only going to make things worse for the guy who needs a job to live. How high does unemployment have to go before people see how fucked everything is?
Let's get rid of the backstops. But let's do it thoughtfully. Can the withdraw kill a heroin addict? I don't wanna know in this situation.
nobody coulda said they didnt see it coimng
no sorrows for stupidity
It's a catch 22 situation I agree. But I'm afraid that in the long run, we'll look back and say, "The operation was a success, but the patient died." They've started something, life support, but the patient looks pretty terminal from where I'm standing.
Heroin addicts die of overdose, not withdrawl. It's time for America to put down the needle.
A patient with a major artery cut needs a transfusion or he dies.
We'll get the market crash. And there will be QE2.0, QE++, and QE#.
I want to keep the 50 tapeworms in the senate and the leader of the united state of disillusion from getting a cut of the action.
Before you scream "End the Fed", think through what we are going to replace it with, and how to keep the QE process transparent, unpolitical, and rational.
ben, i know you are just trying to save your
job but not only can't you do your job but you
have no intention of helping anyone but your
bankster elite plutocrat friends.....
love your cia influenced argumentation technique.....
sorry ben, but you, your fed, and your tired
communistic cabal need to go....we don't need
no stinkin fed - it is the root of our problems
and conveniently always the solution....
imagine there's no fed....it's easy if you try....
spending trillions of dollars is never transparent.
unpolitical, or rational....what a fucktard...
If we all go to the stone age one consolation is that fuck-ups like you won't survive the first five days.
The equity capitalisation is nothing in the scale of things and the protection of shareholders is beyond a farce , bond holders should at the very least become the shareholders and in my opinion should not even get be in the game.
The dollar would rally hugely in this scenario as the remaining dollars would be worth far more. Also capital would flow to productive uses and their would not be any more careless waste of precious capital that has been the hallmark of BBs bright ideas to save the planet.
He will get exactly the number he needs and not one more. I predict those senators up for re-election in '10 will strangely show a "no" bias. Politics as usual.
THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT BE TELEVISED...
THE REVOLUTION WILL PUT YOU IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BS3QOtbW4m0
Tyler...it's all about the cloture vote....i'll send a piece up to you later today on this for your review as well as to share the details for fellow zh'ers. Reid is scheduled to file the cloture motion on monday.
Good read, but I think he will get confirmed. He is the heroin dealer and Congress is the Heroin addicts.
falling income x rising taxes = deflationary abyss
the pyramid structure of rents and bonds and debt covenants and accounting theories must have new new cash to survive. money in circulation is falling - and there's nothing the "authorities" can do about it. any person, business, corporation, public entity or government that is not presently cash flow positive pretty much immediately falls to zero.
look for more and more draconian public take-overs as various business models and supply chains break down due to lack of cash flow. when food is no longer available for purchase in the grocery stores of new york city and london, there will be a frantic attempt to lighten tax and debt burdens and to get cash back in circulation. but it will be too late.
i can see the ideas taking shape within the fed, ecb, imf, bis, etc ... they think governments can manage a long term deflationary adjustment and actually use it constructively to re-align public priorities, resource utilization, infrastructure, etc. but they are wrong. the central planners are severely underestimating the power and velocity of the deflationary contraction, and have not yet recognized their impotence. they have brought knives to a gun fight, and will be cut down.
maybe quite literally - especially in big cities on the coasts that are self sufficient food wise and are hopelessly dependent upon "income" taxes.
keynesian economic theory is dangerously irrelevant in present financial conditions and economic circumstances.
It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.
Mark Twain
Simon Johnson is now recommending Obama nominate G-30 member Paul Krugman to be the next Fed Chairman.
The support for Bernanke in the Senate hangs by a thread – with Harry Reid providing a message of support, albeit lukewarm, after the markets close. The White House is telling people that if Bernanke is not reconfirmed there will be chaos in the markets and the economic recovery will be derailed. This is incorrect.
The danger here is uncertainty – the markets fear a prolonged policy vacuum. Fortunately, there is a way to address this. Ben Bernanke should withdraw and the president should nominate Paul Krugman to take his place.
http://baselinescenario.com/2010/01/23/paul-krugman-for-the-fed/?utm_sou...
Since Simon wrote the playbook on how the IMF successfully takes out local financial oligarchs based on his prior work experience, we can only surmise that Krugman is the right man to snuff out the competition and implement the proposed G-30 scheme. He is a Noble Prize winner after all.
The only thing Simon doesn't really disclose are the oligarchs the IMF installs to replace the local money merchants. But since the softer, gentler IMF is fully on board with the climate change initiative and is advocating a carbon tax denominated in SDRs, we should have absolutely nothing to worry about.
Anyone for a helping of Soylent Green?
This is where the banks and NY Fed go into Armageddon mode, using their nuclear option to destroy their host and everything around them. Just wonder how the USD behaves. I thought this market meltdown would happen if the Audit the Fed bill passed.
Banana Ben is going to be re-confirmed this week for heading the interest rate policy. The Senate is voting on something else, it is overseeing the banking system. So we get banana boy for another year at least of managing interest rates.
From Fed Website:
Chairman and a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Dr. Bernanke also serves as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the System's principal monetary policymaking body.
That is what he is going to be re-confirmed this week by the Board of Governors - Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the System's principal monetary policymaking body.
Push him out...
Reid Supports Bernanke for Second Fed Term, Shoring Up Support
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid backed Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke for a second term, helping the White House shore up support in the face of several Democratic defections 10 days before his term expires.
Nevada Poll
Reid faces re-election this fall in his home state of Nevada, where a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Jan. 11-12 showed him trailing two possible Republican opponents by at least eight percentage points.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ao6BwZ_UYTMc&pos=8
The people no longer have elected representatives; they have elected traitors.
The enslavement of the American people has been orchestrated by a pernicious Master Class that has taken the United States by the throat. This Master Class is now choking the nation to death as it accelerates its master plan to plunder the people’s dwindling remaining assets. The Master Class comprises politicians, the Wall Street money elite, the Federal Reserve, high-end government (including military) officials, government lobbyists and their paymasters, military suppliers and media oligarchs. The interests and mindset of the Master Class are so totally divorced from those of the average American citizen that it is utterly tone deaf and blind to the justifiable rage sweeping the nation. Its guiding ethics of greed, plunder, power, control and violence are so alien to mainstream American culture and thought that the Master Class might as well be an enemy invader from Mars. But the Master Class here, it is real and it is laying waste to America. To the members of the Master Class, the people are not fellow-citizens; they are instruments of labor, servitude and profit. At first, the Master Class viewed the citizens as serfs; now that they have raped and destroyed the national economy, while in the process amassing unprecedented wealth and power for themselves, they see the people as nothing more than slaves.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Dougherty/jan222010.html
they're beginning to treat us like palestinians
The Founding Fathers wrote in the original and still legal documents that guide the United States of America that anyone who devalues the currency is guilty of treason. Such a treasonous act is punishable by death. Since the Federal Reserve is guilty of devaluing the US dollar, the Federal Reserve in whole including their main representatives (Benjamin Shalom Bernanke), board and members will soon be facing a lawsuit for treason. Now that you are aware of this fact, it is time for all Americans to inform their representatives of this fact. Any representative who votes for Benjamin Shalom Bernanke yet knows of this fact is also guilty of aiding treasonous acts against the United States of America. There is a wind of change happening in America, and this wind can not be stopped.
Thomas Jefferson warned of the damage that would be caused if the people assigned control of the money supply to the banking sector, "I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. Already they have raised up a money aristocracy that has set the government at defiance. This issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of the moneyed corporations which already dare to challenge our Government to a trial of strength and bid defiance to the laws of our country" Thomas Jefferson, 1791
"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen."
-- Samuel Adams, speech at the Philadelphia State House, August 1, 1776.
Obama's proposal has been in making for quite some time, and it's a coincidence that its announcement comes just after liberals losing the seat.
From Mankiw's correspondence:
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2010/01/note-from-inside.html
Blaming ben and greenspan for low rates because you have lack of self control is quite frankly bullshit. The truth is a gambler is more conservative with their money than your typical derivatives trader. You all suck i hope the hardship hits like a cold fist.