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Is Bernanke Worried About Japanese Deflation?

Leo Kolivakis's picture





 

Submitted by Leo Kolivakis, publisher of Pension Pulse.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday that short-term interest rates would be kept near zero "for an extended period," and said the Fed will "evaluate" whether additional monetary stimulus of some sort is needed:

Unemployment, not inflation, is "the biggest problem we have," he said.

 

In testimony prepared for the House Financial Services Committee, Bernanke left the door open to further purchases of mortgage backed securities and agency debt beyond March, and in response to questions from committee members, he said the Fed would also be evaluating whether it should extend its financing of new commercial mortgage backed securities past June.

 

Bernanke, presenting his semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on behalf of the Federal Open Market Committee, called the Fed's current monetary policy, which includes a 0-0.25% federal funds rate target and $1.1 trillion in bank reserves, "highly accommodative" and "very stimulative."

 

But when asked whether yet more monetary stimulus is needed to increase economic growth and spur job creation, Bernanke replied, "The FOMC is going to have to continue to evaluate whether additional stimulus would be necessary depending how the economy evolves, so we'll continue to look at that."

 

He did not elaborate on what form such "additional stimulus" might take. The Fed has no room to lower interest rates further, but it could do more quantitative easing through purchases of Treasury, agency and agency-backed MBS.

 

That is not the present intention. The Fed ended Treasury purchases last fall and has scheduled the end of agency and agency-backed MBS for the end of March. And Bernanke again described tools the Fed has developed for shrinking or at least absorbing the reserves created through past purchases.

 

But in his prepared testimony, Bernanke said, "The FOMC will continue to evaluate its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets."

 

Later, he said the Fed is "interested to see what the effect will be" of ceasing to buy MBS. "So far it looks like it will be modest."

 

TALF financing of "legacy" or older CMBS is due to expire on March 31. TALF loans backed by newly issued CMBS is set to expire on June 30. But in response to a question, Bernanke said the Fed will also "evaluate" whether the TALF should expire as scheduled.

 

He said the TALF has been "successful" in reducing spreads in the CMBS market, but he said the commercial real estate market is still fraught with problems that have broader implications for credit availability.

 

Commercial real estate (CRE) loans are "the biggest credit issue that we still have." He traced the increase in the number of problem banks to CRE exposure. "There are a lot of troubled commercial real estate properties and they are causing a lot of problems for banks, particularly small- to medium-sized banks and we're watching them very carefully," he said.

 

To the extent that small and medium-sized regional banks are hurt by CRE-related losses, he said the supply of credit could be further restricted.

 

Bernanke spoke in his prepared testimony about the Fed's ability to sell securities at some point to shrink its balance sheet and the supply of reserves, but he gave no indication he is eager to do that in response to questions.

 

On the contrary, Bernanke said the Fed will continue to hold the MBS it has bought and said this will "continue to hold down mortgage rates."

 

"It is true that we will stop buying new mortgage backed securities at the end of this quarter, but we continue to hold one and a quarter trillion dollars of agency mortgage backed securities, and taking that off the market in itself will keep mortgage rates below what they otherwise would be," he said. "So we believe that there will be stimulus coming from our holdings of those securities as well as our low interest rates."

 

"So we believe the economy as apposed to the money markets for example still requires support for recovery," he added.

 

Bernanke reinforced his easy money message by stressing the nation's unemployment problems and downplaying inflation risks.

 

In the prepared testimony, he said labor markets remain "quite weak" and said inflation "likely will be subdued for some time." In response to questions, he asserted, "unemployment is the biggest problem we have."

 

In fact, Bernanke did not rule out the possibility that deflation risks could revive. "Right now, we don't see deflation as an imminent risk," he said, adding that "inflation expectations are around 2% or higher." But he added, "there are scenarios in which it (deflation) could become more of a concern."

 

In addition to its traditional and unconventional monetary easing procedures, Bernanke made clear that the Fed is also using its supervisory powers to "get credit flowing again." He strongly suggested that the Fed is leaning on banks to make more loans.

 

In its examinations, he said the Fed has been asking banks questions to make sure that "creditworthy borrowers," especially small businesses, are not being denied credit.

 

Bernanke said the Fed is "working very hard" to make sure small business has adequate credit availability. He said the Fed has "incensed information gathering" to find out "how many loans have been turned down."

 

"There are some cases where tighter (lending) standards are justified," he said, but he added that the Fed "want(s) to make sure creditworthy (borrowers) are not being turned down ... We don't want banks to made bad loans ... but where a borrower is creditworthy we want banks to make loans ...We're working very hard to make sure that is not the case."

 

As he did in prepared testimony, Bernanke stressed again that the Fed's 25 basis point increase in the discount rate last week does not constitute monetary tightening, nor does it signal it.

 

"The reason we took action was to reduce the subsidy" to banks borrowing from the discount window, he said, adding, "I do not expect any effect whatsoever" of the discount rate hike on money market rates.

 

In his prepared testimony, Bernanke said that "by increasing the interest rate on reserves, the Federal Reserve will be able to put significant upward pressure on all short-term interest rates."

 

In response to questions, he suggested that raising the rate of interest on excess reserves will suffice to put a floor under the federal funds rate. "We think that the interest rate we pay on reserves will bring along with it the federal funds rate within tens of basis points, not a tremendous difference," he said.

 

His comment would seem to suggest that the Fed will not necessarily abandon the federal funds rate as its main monetary policy instrument or target and replace it with the IOER.

 

Without the additional tools the Fed has developed -- interest on reserves, large reverse repurchase agreements, a proposed term deposit facility -- Bernanke said that "with so many reserves in the system, we wouldn't be able to raise the federal funds rate.

 

But with those tools, he said the Fed should be able "to raise interest rates notwithstanding the fact that we have a large balance sheet."

 

Bernanke said "none of them (the tools) has been completely tested," but he said the Fed has a "belt-and-suspenders" capability. He said "interest on reserves itself could be used to tighten policy" but said the Fed could supplement that tool if necessary by using other tools to drain reserves.

 

Bernanke acknowledged that raising the interest paid on reserves (now 25 basis points) "would reduce our profitablility a little bit." But he said "since we're making 4% plus on MBS we would still have quite a bit of margin there." The Fed paid the Treasury a record $46.1 billion in 2009 out of net earnings on its operations.

 

Regarding the possibility of the Fed issuing its own debt -- so-called "Fed bills" -- Bernanke said the Fed is "not proposing that now." He said the Fed does plan to auction term deposits but only to financial institutions that hold reserves at the Fed.

 

As he has before, Bernanke warned about the long-term unsustainability of federal budget deficits. As currently projected, he said deficits will range between 4% and 7% of GDP even after the economy has recovered. He said it is "very important that we look at the trajectory" of deficits and reduce them as a percent of GDP.

 

Bernanke said deficits affect market interest rates not just in the future but "today." He warned that if bond markets lose confidence in U.S. fiscal policy long-term rates could rise in a counterproductive way. So he said "it would be helpful if there were a credible plan for fiscal exit."

 

A loss of confidence in longer term fiscal policy would push up long rates and be "a drag on the economy, he warned.

 

What's more, if confidence is lost, "the dollar could decline, which would have potential inflationary impact," he added.

Chairman Bernanke is right to worry about deflation. He's looking over at what's going on in Japan where Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hirohide Yamaguchi earlier on Wednesday said the BOJ is ready to act to act as deflation weighs:

Yamaguchi, a career central banker seen as close to BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, said the BOJ's key task was to boost demand and show its determination to beat deflation so that the public doesn't take the view that price declines will persist and then hold off on spending.

 

"To overcome deflation, patient treatment of its root cause, which is a lack of demand, is necessary," Yamaguchi said in a speech to business leaders in Kagoshima, southern Japan, on Wednesday.

 

"It's important to make sure corporate sentiment doesn't shrink, so that deflation doesn't trigger economic weakness and further aggravate deflation."

 

The government, hobbled by a huge fiscal debt, has been pressuring the BOJ to support the fragile economy even as most other major central banks mull rolling back stimulus steps put in place during the global crisis.

 

The central bank has said it is committed to fighting deflation but it hasn't said how it will go about it.

 

Many analysts say it could pump more money into the banking system or offer cheap longer-term funds to bring down longer-dated interest rates such as six-month rates, particularly if the yen rises further and threatens to deepen deflation.

 

"The BOJ can't escape the fact that prices are still declining," said David Cohen, director of Asian economic forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore.

 

"The BOJ would be happy to stay on hold indefinitely, but they could do something to lower short-term rates to appease the government. Price declines will narrow as long as the global economy continues to recover. But a decline is a decline."

 

The core consumer price index likely fell 1.4 percent in January from the previous year, with annual price falls accelerating for the first time since they slumped by a record in August, according to a Reuters poll. The CPI data is due out on Friday.

 

The Japanese yield curve has steepened as expectations the BOJ could ease monetary policy further has kept shorter-dated yields low, while longer-dated maturities suffer from concern about Japan's fiscal condition.

 

Yamaguchi said recent economic developments have not changed much the public's long-term price expectations.

 

But he said the BOJ needs to ensure that price expectations remain stable and don't swing towards the view that deflation will last for a very long time.

 

Deflation hurts the economy as households put off spending on hopes that prices will fall further, forcing companies to cut prices to lure consumers.

One person who believes that deflation is coming in the US is Bob Prechter who says that the extraordinary action taken by the Federal Reserve to bail out the economy will not lead to runaway inflation.

"Deflation is gaining the upper hand very, very slowly, but it's happening," Prechter the founder of Elliott Wave International tells Tech Ticker. Of course, as anyone familiar with his work knows, he's been saying this for years.

 

Why should we believe him now?

 

For the first time since 1982 core inflation fell in January as measured by the consumer price index. Prechter says it's even more noteworthy that it's happening "in the face of this tremendous amount of stimulus...from the government and a real attempt at stimulus from the central bank."

 

Prechter describes the forces of deflation as a "socio-nomic" shift in social mood that will prevent Federal Reserve Chairman from printing too much money. "At some point, the voters - as you can already see from the Tea Parties - are going to start saying we've had enough" with government spending and bailouts.

How should you invest in a deflationary environment? Mr. Prechter believes nobody should be taking risk right now and thinks the bond market is the "biggest bubble in the history of the world":

"What has happened is a complete change in psychology from extreme negativity [a year ago] to extreme optimism" heading into the market's recent top in January, Prechter says.

 

Among the many sentiment indicators he watched, Prechter cited the very low levels of cash at mutual funds, which is approaching levels seen near major tops in 1973, 2000 and 2007.

 

"Nobody should be taking risk right now. This is a time to be safe," he says.

But considering U.S. equity funds suffered about $46 billion of outflows from August to December 2009 while bond funds took in about $198 billion, according to ICI, aren't investors already playing it safe -- a bullish contrarian signal?

 

"The individual investor has been more or less abandoning stocks" and buying bond funds, Prechter concedes. "I think that is going from the frying pan into the fire. The bond market is the biggest bubble in the history of the world. "

 

Corporate debt, municipal debt, mortgages and consumer loans will all suffer in the great deflation Prechter believes is already underway, as detailed in his book Conquer the Crash.

So is there any way for investors to protect themselves from the carnage? Mr. Prechter thinks in a deflationary environment, cash is king. If his predictions come true, many investors, including those that are overweight gold, will get creamed.

As you listen to the interview below, keep in mind that many pension funds investing trillions in risk assets will also get creamed if deflation sets in. Bernanke knows this, which is why he's not prepared to raise rates before he sees solid gains in employment and a pick-up in inflation expectations.

**UPDATE: Why Prechter is Wrong on Deflation***

On Thursday, renewed concerns about Greece's credit rating and the future of the EU gave the dollar a boost, with commodities and equities suffering as a result. Broadly speaking, the market action seems to justify Prechter's warning.

Not so fast, says Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, who believes inflation remains a bigger long-term threat to the market and U.S. economy.

"It's the reaction to the potential deflation that gets to the inflation," Boockvar says. "The more deflationary type steps we see, the more money printing that will go on around the world that will set us up for that inflation. More deflation will eventually get us more inflation."

It may seem somewhat convoluted logic, but Boockvar's point is that global policymakers will do anything and everything to fight deflation, most definitely including Fed chairman Ben Bernanke.

See Peter Bookvar's interview by clicking here.

 

 


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Thu, 02/25/2010 - 16:38 | Link to Comment Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

**UPDATE: Why Prechter is Wrong on Deflation***

On Thursday, renewed concerns about Greece's credit rating and the future of the EU gave the dollar a boost, with commodities and equities suffering as a result. Broadly speaking, the market action seems to justify Prechter's warning.

Not so fast, says Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, who believes inflation remains a bigger long-term threat to the market and U.S. economy.

"It's the reaction to the potential deflation that gets to the inflation," Boockvar says. "The more deflationary type steps we see, the more money printing that will go on around the world that will set us up for that inflation. More deflation will eventually get us more inflation."

It may seem somewhat convoluted logic, but Boockvar's point is that global policymakers will do anything and everything to fight deflation, most definitely including Fed chairman Ben Bernanke.

See Peter Bookvar's interview by clicking here.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 15:02 | Link to Comment AnonymousMonetarist
AnonymousMonetarist's picture

Perversely, the route to Gold $5000 is Gold $500.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 15:01 | Link to Comment AnonymousMonetarist
AnonymousMonetarist's picture


Is Bernanke Worried About Japanese Deflation?

 

Worried? No he is terrified. Deflation is the hemlock of the elites and the midwife to hyperinflation.

If we cross that Rubicon, 'tis financial pornography and the Federales will be gangbanging a string.

It'll be the end of daze.

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 14:39 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

The bottom line is this..

There is too much debt in the world. Not only that. There are too many derivatives created on debt default that have absolutely no backing.

Liabilities are off the charts because assets are not properly measured.

Let governments figure this out and revaluate assets on their books.

When the books are reflecting assets properly, the government can borrow against them and more money can be created.

Take all default swaps off the table for good. That's like financial vodoo. It serves no purpose other than steering a government facing near bankruptcy to engage with loan sharks.

Greece for example has a long standing history and culture. It has contributed much to our world. There should be a class of assets for that.

I am not joking.

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 14:57 | Link to Comment chet
chet's picture

"There are too many derivatives created on debt default that have absolutely no backing."

Yeah, I'm not sure who is on the other side of these "bets".  If Greece goes down, followed by some of the other PIGS, who is going to be paying out and how much?

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 14:21 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

Leo, nice summary.

BB cannot lower interest rates anymore.

Real rates are 10.6% on the long end and

rising to reflect corporate and sovereign

insolvencies. The second leg of the great

credit cleansing has begun. PIIGs and STUPIDs

coming soon to a shopping mall and state

near us.

The only credible tool for ameliorating the

Greatest Depression is government

respecting Constitutional rights to liberty,

property and a stable currency.

Then private enterprise can do its job

putting US back to work, productivity and

savings. No more government theft, including

wars on everything that moves and some

things that don't...

http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/

 

 

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 15:15 | Link to Comment Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

The only way private industry can put us back to work is by paying US workers the same wages as the Chinese pay their workers. Private industry shipped jobs overseas during the last 30 years and those jobs are never coming back. What is left are the mostly ephemeral jobs of a service economy. It's a fantasy to think that private industry could bail us out.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/25/2010 - 14:13 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

Shadowstats currently documenting 10% CPI

using 1980 methodology...

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/

 

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 12:32 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/25/2010 - 14:10 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

There is no free lunch.

What banks, brokers and government take by

fees, front-running, usury and tax, they lose by

default...

http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 12:24 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/25/2010 - 13:45 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

.

 

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 13:47 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

.

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 13:38 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

Gentle deflation is the natural state of affairs with a

productive economy and stable currency. Usury

is theft leading to drastic defaults proscribed by

most scriptural traditions.

As if the 30% mafia loan shark credit cards were not

a clue of what is coming.

Macchiavelli, Gustave Le Bon and Sigmund Freud's

double nephew Edward Bernays who invented Madison

Avenue knew how to control and dazzle the crowd

with Advertising, PR and propaganda.

Hitler and Mussolini used LeBon's book The Crowd...

http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 11:39 | Link to Comment jc125d
jc125d's picture

Ben, you want to shrink that balance sheet? Then mark that crap you're holding to the market. And these guys talking about inflation as if the value of the USD will remain constant, while the presses are smoking. Bong hits for them all.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 13:24 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

Bingo.

Government can fool some of the people

some of the time,

but not all of the people all of the time...

http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 11:36 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

have you read the Fed's Preventing Deflation:Lessons from Japan's experience in the 1990's available at the their website in pdf? Krugman and Bernanke are cited throughout.

Prechter has been correct in the general direction of the market. My only complaint with his method is that Socionomics is nutcase psychology, and psychology is a discredited science, (like economics).

Looking inside the recent CPI numbers provides a different view of things. New autos lost value, while the price of used autos was up, and Health care was up, naturally, and is pretty much out of the ICU on Reform. The government interventionists have been busy at the commodity exchanges keeping speculators, hedge funds, from running up prices (or assigning fair market value, take your pick)

As far as housing is concerned I expect RENTS, the official measure to drop much slower than core housing, but that measure is thoroughly corrupted.

In the final outcome what we have is wages and income falling faster than non core, food and energy, and those measures falling not as fast as core, asset prices.

 

Deflation helps the average working guy, assuming he has savings, and is not in the stock market, but mass marketing of pension funds, and 401K has pretty much sold everyone a share of the Titanic.

 

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 13:21 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

Another way to look at this is CPI up and PPI down

due to government costs, with CPI eventually

reflecting the real economy, which has been

contracting since the 8+% GDP peak under Reagan...

http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 11:32 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

There is nothing the FED can to about unemployment short of hiring millions of people to work for it. If FNM and FRE did not exist then there wouldn't be an easy way for it to fix housing. See how hard it is for them to fix commercial mortgages?

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 13:17 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

Fed and Treasury already hired more economists

than any other entity, reportedly 1000, and they

still did not report the economy accurately to

the people they allegedly serve, the US Taxpayer.

Bernanke, Geithner, Greenspan, Paulson, Romer

and Summers claimed they never saw it coming...

http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 11:11 | Link to Comment Thoreau
Thoreau's picture

The only Japanese issue Bernanke is worried about is hiring the right gardener for his Zen garden in Switzerland. The man, like his contemporaries, is simply playing another game of monopoly with other peoples play money. When the game is up, his maid will bring him some fresh cookies and milk and crayons to while away his worries.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 10:30 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/25/2010 - 13:12 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

Real interest rates are the -6% GDP contraction

last year plus nominal rates from 0 to 4.6%, 

ie 6 to 10.6%.

They are rising not due to inflation, but increasing

credit risk...

http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Madcow
Madcow's picture

There is nothing Ben, et al can do about the growing deflationary vortex.  The money supply is vaporizing. As cash disappears from the system, all the rents will collapse. Stuffing money into the government-banks won't help anyone but the government-banks.

Increased taxes only add to the deflation. "Stimulus" at this point is counter-productive, as it can only add uncertainty to those with any remaining capital. 

They will try to stretch the deflationary collapse out over 30 years (Japan) so as not to suffer a brutal 2 year adjustment. The markets will force the adjustment to happen more quickly. 

The only weapon the Fed has is monetary destruction. And you can bet they will TRY to use it. But it won't help the economy. The ship has already sailed over the falls. It just hasn't yet crashed upon the rocks below. 

Don't believe me? Take a look at bank lending. And realize that debt=money. A rising dollar and rising taxes = parabolic increases in unemployment, bankruptcies, foreclosures, asset liquidations, etc. The only "escape" would be massive debt and tax relief. And that's not going to happen, because our political leaders are too arrogant and corrupt and delusional to admit they are wrong.

Supply chains WILL break down in those industries not taken over by the government - Just like car engines break down without motor oil. If I lived in a big city on the coast, my "investment strategy" would be to get the f* out before looting, car-jacking, and cannibalism no longer make the local news.  

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 15:57 | Link to Comment jbcorwin
jbcorwin's picture

And you would move from the coast to?

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 14:29 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

How tragic. Make it a movie script for it will never come to that in real life.

"Supply chains WILL break down in those industries not taken over by the government"

Are you suggesting that it's a good thing when government takes over industries? You're saying that supply chains will break down unless government takes over. You're implying to favor that scenario. But you're also saying that we're staring down a deflationary rabbit hole and increasing taxes would make it worse.

Which is it? More government = more taxation or more debt. Both will result in inflation. When government runs things, people either turn to a different currency or gold to store their wealth. Just ask former Soviets how they handled their decades of centrally planned economy. Their own money was worthless. Anyone that could convert into Dollars or Deutschmarks or Gold did so.

I'm sorry, I really can't share your negativity. People that don't have education or that don't have any assets will be poor. That's the story of their life.

Now, if a populist comes along and tells these people that they somehow DESERVE to participate in the economy the same way the rich folk do, then we might have a problem.

As long as people have a roof over their head, get fed and can watch TV they won't get any wrong ideas.

Shit happens. Life is NOT fair.

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 13:08 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

Well writ...

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 10:39 | Link to Comment mikla
mikla's picture

+1
Very nicely said.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 10:11 | Link to Comment hettygreen
hettygreen's picture

Mr. Prechter is a thoughtful, intelligent man, whose views I generally agree with and respect. That said, he is still not known to be infallible and from what I've been reading, the US Treasury market is about as hated right now as gold is loved and inflation worshipped.

Ok which one is it that is in a bubble?

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 13:06 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

Both are bubbles.

Bonds government guaranteed certificates of

confiscation. Gold hyped beyond credibility...

http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 09:55 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/25/2010 - 09:45 | Link to Comment curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

Listen BEN....it's not just unemployment, but it the quality of those jobs.  You need GOOD paying jobs to reverse the depression you idiot.  Without wage increases, INFLATION CANNOT RISE.  Go back to school, forget your Chicao economics classes and attend some Austrian classes you dope!

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 13:02 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

Bingo.

And without constitutional protections of free

markets and property, we will not have savings.

And without savings we will not have investment.

And without investment we will not have growth.

The fastest way to productive jobs, savings,

investment and growth is replacing unproductive

income, payroll and property taxes with the 1%

transaction tax and government spending freezes.

We had a transaction tax from 1916 to 1966 that

was doubled during the last Great Depression...

http://www.c-spanarchives.org/congress/?q=node/77531&id=9063635

http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/25/2010 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/25/2010 - 09:18 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/25/2010 - 14:25 | Link to Comment chet
chet's picture

Has cash been a safe position in Japan during their deflationary period?  With 20/20 hindsight, what were the right positions for someone to take there when their bubble burst?

Honest question.  Anyone know a good source discussing that issue?

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 15:19 | Link to Comment Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

If I remember correctly, Bianco Research once did a study of this and found that the number one asset class during Japan's lost decade of deflation was Japanese goverment bonds (even with the low yields).

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 12:52 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

Bingo bango bongo...

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 09:01 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/25/2010 - 07:32 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/25/2010 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/25/2010 - 06:44 | Link to Comment JimboJammer
JimboJammer's picture

Ross  Perot   said :   the  Nafta  plan  will  move  jobs  out  of  the  usa.

well  now ,  we  can  see  it.   Those  shoe  factories  are  not  coming  back.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/25/2010 - 04:52 | Link to Comment Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

I compare Bernanke to Nixon.  Nixon meant well at first but after awhile it all about feeding the beast.  The Fed is Bernanke's Watergate.  We just need somene to break that story.

 

 

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 01:10 | Link to Comment Chopshop
Chopshop's picture

great read Leo.  am rather obviously rather partial to the DE camp n RrP ... thanks for highlighting ben shalom's written.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 09:41 | Link to Comment Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Thanks but what camp are you talking about? Hard to decipher code this morning...still on my second cup of coffee.:)

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 00:45 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Does one get the feeling there's a few too many "balls in the air"? Heli Ben has the daunting task of driving a truck through the eye of a needle. This will not end well.

 

As for Prechter, if the bond bubble blows, wouldn't one want to be in gold? Don't get it! Perhaps the "Carry" gets blown out but watch how the "yellow metal" turns on ya! It'll be quick and then runaway.

Thu, 02/25/2010 - 12:19 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

Gold declines during defaults and deflation.

Look at every margin call decline since 1980...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!