“We need to do our part to help the economy recover” and ensure job growth in the U.S The labor market is growing “too slowly,”
Today William Dudley (FRB NY) chimed in:
The outlook for U.S. job growth and inflation is “unacceptable” and that the Fed will probably need to take action to spur the recovery and avert deflation.
We all know that the unemployment story is a disaster. This graph from the CBO tells the story in a different way.
Current unemployment is 9.5%. The concept of “Full Employment” would
still have unemployment at around 5%. So the status today is better
stated, “We are about 4.5% above what we would like to be on unemployment”.
Looking again at the CBO graph you see that unemployment for greater
than 26 weeks is now at a post WWII record of 4.5%. Exactly the same as
the current shortfall to the desired Full Employment.
That is not a coincidence. The long-term nature of unemployment we face
today is structural. We have exported too many jobs. You can’t fix that
problem overnight. And you can’t fix it with another jolt of short-term
monetary stimulus. As Philadelphia Fed’s Charles Plosser said this week:
“It
is difficult, in my view, to see how additional asset purchases by the
Fed, even if they move interest rates on long-term bonds down by 10 or
20 basis points, will have much impact on the near-term outlook for
employment.”
What troubles me is that Bernanke is well aware of the fact that his is
pushing on a string. There is nothing he can do to address America’s
structural unemployment. Yet it is increasingly clear that he will act
on November 4th. The comment, “We need to do our part”, says it all. Bernanke is committed with these words.
Do we really need to go down this dangerous road? From the Fed:
9/21/2010 (minutes)The
Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource
utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of
economic recovery is likely to be modest in the near term.
This says to me, “We are going in the right direction, we wish it were faster though”.
There is no sense of urgency in the Feds words. “Modest” recovery does
not justify extraordinary measures. From Bernanke at Jackson Hole on
8/27:
“The
deep economic contraction had ended, and we were seeing broad
stabilization in global economic activity and the beginnings of a
recovery.”
Nothing scary in those words.
“For a
sustained expansion to take hold, growth in private final
demand--notably, consumer spending and business fixed investment--must
ultimately take the lead. On the whole, in the United States, that critical handoff appears to be under way.”
Sounds encouraging to me.
“I expect the economy to continue to expand in the second half of this year, albeit at a relatively modest pace.”
Why is modest such a bad thing? Should we gamble big time to get growth above modest?
Bernanke has been doing his level best to sell QE-2. He has been
parading Fed Governors and talking on the quiet to the press. I feel
like I am being barraged by an ad campaign. But he has not sold me. To
do that he has to convince me that there is a direct correlation to QE-2
and the structural unemployment problem. He can’t do that. There is no connection.
The next QE starts at 1 Trillion. I think it has to be an open ended
approach this time. In other words, “The sky is the limit”. It could
easily go to $2T. At that point we will have monetized nearly 50% of
public sector debt. Nothing like this has ever been done before
(successfully).
Bernanke is gambling with our future. He is making an all in bet on our
behalf. QE-2 will cause all manner of distortions. But it won’t address
the central problem we are facing. For the life of me I can’t imagine
how Bernanke can roll the dice like this. Why bet so big when there is
so little to gain?
ugg boots london I saw something shocking uggs london on my way to work the other day. uggs new york While bundled in a long sleeved shirt, wool sweater and coat, with a Pashmina, hat and gloves,ugg boots london sale I saw a man with his bike a the bus stop in SANDALS. He wasn’t overly well dressed for cold weather, in jeans, t-shirt and open jacket. Now, having lived in Oregon for the past decade I have come to be aware of what “true Oregonians” consider winter attire. ugg boots london shop This primarily consists of the inbred belief that flip-flops are a necessity year round, and sweaters and umbrellas are for tourists. I do not uphold this belief.ugg boots sale london I love getting dressed up for winter, layering on leggings with my sweater dress and ugg boots new york, a sweater and a jacket, and a rotating army of scarves, hats and gloves.ugg boots london stockists I don’t enjoy being frozen, especially knowing how easy a situation that is to avoid. uggs new york sale So personally, buy ugg boots london I do not consider myself a “true Oregonian.” I like umbrellas, and only wear flip flops when it’s above 75 degrees.Based on the population of Oregon, ugg new york I’m probably in the minority. Although I have come to accept that these people are just immune to cold in a way I am not, uggs new york of sale I do still think they are crazy. I’m guessing that the good folks at UGG Australia caught wind of these people because look at what they have to offer: sandals with fleece!uggs new york on sale
It’s a interesting news,i like it.Additionally,wellcome to my website prettyboots.org ,here are so many UGGS On Sale such as:UGG Elsey wedge|UGG Elsey wedge black|UGG Elsey wedge chestnut|UGG Elsey wedge espresso|UGG Langley|UGG Langley black|UGG Langley chestnut|UGG Lo Pro Button|UGG Lo Pro Button black|UGG Lo Pro Button blue|UGG Lo Pro Button cream|UGG Mayfaire|UGG Mayfaire black|UGG Mayfaire chestnut|UGG Mayfaire chocolate|UGG Mayfaire sand|UGG Mayfaire red|UGG Nightfall|UGG Nightfall black|UGG Nightfall chestnut|UGG Nightfall chocolate|UGG Nightfall sand|UGG Sundance II|UGG Sundance II black|UGG Sundance II chestnut|UGG Sundance II chocolate|UGG Sundance II sand|UGG Ultimate Bind|UGG Ultimate Bind black|UGG Ultimate Bind chestnut|UGG Ultimate Bind chocolate|UGG Ultimate Bind sand|UGG Ultra Short|UGG Ultra Short chocolate|UGG Ultra Short sand|UGG Ultra Short black|UGG Ultra Tall|UGG Ultra Tall chestnut|UGG Ultra Tall sand|UGG Ultra Tall balck|UGG Ultra Tall chocolate|UGG Suede|UGG Suede black|UGG Suede chestnut|UGG Suede sand|UGG upside|UGG upside black|UGG upside chestnut|UGG upside mocha|UGG Roxy Tall|UGG Roxy Tall black|UGG Roxy Tall chestnut|UGG Roxy Tall chocolate|UGG Roxy Tall sand|UGG seline|UGG seline black|UGG seline chestnut|UGG Corinth Boots|UGG Liberty|UGG Liberty black|UGG Liberty cigar|UGG Highkoo|UGG Highkoo amber brown|UGG Highkoo espresso|UGG Highkoo grey|UGG Highkoo black|UGG Knightsbridge|UGG Knightsbridge black|UGG Knightsbridge chestnut|UGG Knightsbridge grey|UGG Knightsbridge sand|UGG Knightsbridge chocolate|UGG Adirondack|UGG Adirondack brown|UGG Adirondack chocolate|UGG Suburb Crochet|UGG Suburb Crochet black|UGG Suburb Crochet chestnut|UGG Suburb Crochet chocolate|UGG Suburb Crochet grey|UGG Suburb Crochet white|UGG Kensington|UGG Kensington black|UGG Kensington chestnut|UGG Roseberry|UGG Roseberry black|UGG Roseberry sand|UGG Gaviota|UGG Gaviota black|UGG Gaviota chestnut|UGG Gaviota chocolate|UGG Desoto|UGG Desoto black|UGG Desoto chestnut|UGG Desoto chocolate|UGG Brookfield Tall|UGG Brookfield Tall black|UGG Brookfield Tall chocolate|UGG Gissella|UGG Gissella black|UGG Gissella chestnut|UGG Gissella espresso|UGG Payton|UGG Payton black|UGG Payton chestnut|UGG Payton red|UGG Bailey Button Triplet|UGG Bailey Button Triplet black|UGG Bailey Button Triplet chestnut|UGG Bailey Button Triplet chocolate|UGG Bailey Button Triplet grey|UGG Bailey Button Triplet sand|There are so much style of cheap uggs for sale ,so once you go to my website you will be very surprise.
..the mortgage mess is a form of divine intervention, especially if coupled with a stay on foreclosures. All the People need to do to end the system is then to buy nothing but food and bills. Then, in of itself, the square will form a circle.
It would also be the beginning of a new age if there were a generator which would supply petrol, ~10kW, and some freshwater for about $10,000, so that every home cold be self-sufficent... Algae and Solar industry should be able to do this now...kids should be able to build it in school..it sounds like socialism, but it's the same as having a printer, or email...this economic cllapse is endemic of a technological revolution.. whether it's accurate or not, the Fed is propping up a capitalist system which is underwritten by obselete assets. ..buying this market, at these valuations, is perpetuating a system whose time is past.
_______________________________ An Innovative Credit Free, Free Market Economic Ideology A Tract on Monetary Reform _______________________________ Our Economy is in Shamble The consequences, the Great Depression and history tells us, will necessarily be a Formidable Chaos: Social and political turmoil, and military adventures. Neither supranational bodies nor governments can propose a plausible solution; What is Politically Correct is Mathematically Wrong! _______________________________
_______________________________ It is our responsibility to create a meaningful increment of jobs, revenues and investments: We urgently need the only plausible solution that is offered to us: An Innovative Credit Free, Free Market Economic Ideology It is your duty to insure your own security and economic survival, no one else will do that for you!
_______________________________ Credit Free Economy More Jobs, No Debt, No Fear. Prosperous, Fair and Stable. http://post-crash.com _______________________________
The QE is Bernake's payback to Obama for letting him
keep his job.
Updated GOLD monthly chart:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
The Village Idiot here. So you hear about this Black Swan. Ever think there could be a Black Swan event that would be good and assist in rectifying the situation. I don’t think so but one must look 360 degrees.
That would be the White Swan otherwise known as Divine Intervention, which I for one am not counting on.
What color is the swan that represents muddling through?
.
mudddling through. culling.
" now, ain't that some shit."
.
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.inspirationgreen.com/assets/images/Blog_Images_April/oil-soaked%2520bird-Gerald%2520Herbert.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.inspirationgreen.com/bp-oil-spill.html&h=437&w=600&sz=58&tbnid=d-lXa3FxW1YLpM:&tbnh=98&tbnw=135&prev=/images%3Fq%3Doil%2Bsoaked%2Bbirds%2Bgulf%2Bphoto&zoom=1&q=oil+soaked+birds+gulf+photo&hl=en&usg=__2ViEGhKH_8HYanpFZHmRXPtw-ng=&sa=X&ei=3YunTObaBo-0sAPQkvilDQ&sqi=2&ved=0CBoQ9QEwAg
.
Holy shit bitchez!
Ok, I promise, no more bitchez statements from me.
I'm going to give this a shot. I am going to look at the world through the eyes of a slave owner (the Fed). I will not look at it through the eyes of an American, but as the slave owner/ruler of the entire world. What do I want? I want full employment. I want everyone working, preferably for nothing or for as little as possible. "I will work for food" is my favorite all-time saying. I do not care about borders. I look to move my production to the cheapest place. I don't care where. I don't care if the workers are abused. I picked China in the 1970's. It worked out well. Nixon photo ops on the Great Wall. Ha Ha. I don't care about American workers. I don't care that their production capacity (factories, etc) were closed...they were way too expensive. I want to control large groups of slaves. It's better if they can be persuaded to use one currency. More efficient. In one carefully executed coup, I scooped up all of Europe. I could care less about individual "sovereign" solvency. I knew Greece was cooking their books. I'll take all comers. All are welcome into my gated community. I am concerned that my slaves in the US aren't working. 20% unemployment means a lot of slack(ers). Too bad. I still can't afford them. I know! I'll get them to work for the same $2.00 a day that I pay in China. How to do this? I'll put them back to work for $1,000/day. I'd better move carefully on this one. If I can devalue the dollar by printing trillions of dollars, $1,000/day will be here soon enough. If I can get all currencies to devalue too...well, I'll have won the game. Gee, I wonder how, in the "mean time", I can get those Americans to work for less money? I know, import cheap labor. Bring in millions of Mexicans to compete. Just open the back door and call everyone who objects a racist. Call them Un-American. The Americans aren't going to like this, so I'll get my new overseer Obama to smooth things over. (Can you believe that I was able to get a black with a Muslim name elected? I really can do anything!) So as I begin to increase wages with devalued dollars, I must also enact my tax/extract schemes. Wonder if I could tax the slaves for breathing. That would be great. Charge them every time they exhale. Carbon Dioxide. Tax it. Call it a pollutant. Regulate it. Boy I'm good. Get Al Gore to do a power-point presentation and do a road show.
Anyway...it's good to have so many experts jawboning about the importance of more debt, more stimulus....more, more, more. I'm lovin it! Everyone who advocates on my behalf will be rewarded. The more money I print, the cheaper my labor. Gold bugs...what to do, what to do? Next time I confiscate it, I'll dump it all in the ocean. NASA said it's too heavy to ship it out to space. There goes your funding.
In the above context, the following makes sense:
A bullseye, Miss Expectations!
Central planning as practiced by the Fed is not an advisory role. It is actually central control. And more and more, the representative of the owners of the Fed, Professor Bernanke, considers it his place to make U.S. policy at home and abroad. He is not a central planner; he is a central controller—an economic dictator. If there are differences between the role the Fed has usurped over the U.S. government and a dictatorship, they are hard to discern.
Solving America’s unemployment problem--a problem Fed policy helped to create--is not Bernanke’s role; it belongs to the U.S. Congress. Bernanke should have no power over U.S. workers and savers one way or the other; his policies solely represent the interests of the private owners of the Fed, not the people of the United States.
America is in a depression with 22% true unemployment. Kirk MacKenzie in Money writes: “The clear consequence of the current economic system is the creation, enrichment, and empowerment of a new elite that have every intent of continuing the System they created and control. The System serves their interests, not those of the People. Were it otherwise in the richest nation on Earth, the American Dream would be flourishing and we would not be drowning in debt. Following the money leads to the inevitable epiphany :
“Our nation is in debt for the simple reason that debt, and everything that creates or perpetuates debt, is beneficial from a banker’s perspective. Debt is their product, their crop. Thus, there is an intrinsic economic struggle between the interests of the money power and those of the People. So far the People have been losing.”
You ask how did men such as these come to manage this nation’s affairs. The answer is, they got there because they are men like this—they stab in the back and oppress, they cheat and steal, they cooperate and conspire with one another, they love money and power more than country and liberty and the good of their fellow man
“In questions of power, then, let no more be heard of confidence in men, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.” Thomas Jefferson, 1799.
"This is not about short term gains Leo. It is about survival."
Exactly, Bruce, and your overall post is a perfect response to every money-grubber out there who accordingly can't see the forest for the money trees that are but tinder for the conflagration to come.
And as to why Bernanke does what he does -- why any of them do what they do -- the answer is simple: They are in thrall to keynesianism, which is to economics what astrology is to astronomy, but with one big difference. While astronomy has nothing whatever to do with astrology, economics has everything to do with Keynesianism for the simply reason that it long ago overtook the profession and thereby corrupted it out of all recognition.
Yes, some of them are "merely" monetarists, but the point remains the same: All of them believe, with Marx and Engels, that money is properly a creation of the state, whether the state is communist or corporatist. Which is to say that it matter not that the Fed is quasi-governmental, for all this means is that it is ipso facto fascistic. And once the monetary system becomes fascistic, it's only a matter of time before the rest of the economy follows suit. Add a hefty dose of welfare socialism for good measure, and the resulting "fascialism" -- http://www.lewrockwell.com/dilorenzo/dilorenzo172.html -- assures socioeconomic ruination.
And as we're just about there (which is why ZH is here), the overriding point is that we talk about it so that we can do something about it. Or not. But at least we'll be making the choice increasingly clear.
"While astronomy has nothing whatever to do with astrology"
maybe a tangent, maybe not, but if you ever read the history of the first 'astronomers', you'll discover that pretty much every single one of them were deep into 'astrology'.
"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy"
I'm sure Glaucus has read enough history to know that the history of science is essentially the battle between superstition and reason, meaning that however much astrology infected astronomy in the past, it no longer does.
More to the point, however (meaning Glaucus's point), is that this isn't true in economics, which has been infected to the point of superstition by the worship of, yes, Lord Keynes, who's dyed-in-the-wool statism was nothing less than fanatical.
And so it goes with his acolytes.
perhaps he has dick. the point was not his education level (which i do not question in the slightest, glaucus has proven himself to be a very learned man), but his certainty that there is no validation to anything beyond the realm of his personal belief. this would seem to be the same with you as well.
it must be comforting for you to know that the universe exists exactly as you believe it to be.
welcome to the ring.
In deference to Keynes, that's not what he said.
He said in good times, save and in bad times spend, even if it means running a deficit.
Keynes' ideas have been perverted. Don't hate on Maynard just because he's a Liberal. The Liberals have taken his ideas and bent them all out of shape so that they can pay everyone with no one's money. Who'll pay? Why, The Government, of course.
I'm fairly sure that this is not what he had in mind.
/:
"He said in good times, save and in bad times spend, even if it means running a deficit."
Orly, aside from Keynes' utterly absurd belief that consumption, rather than production, is the key to economic growth (this being the altar at which his acolytes worship to this day), only the most naive believe that a government with the power to print money would follow this advice. But to really understand Keynesianism, one needs who Keynes actually was, for only then can one understand why and what Keynes actually did:
http://mises.org/etexts/keynestheman.pdf
Ben 'let them eat credit' Bernanke is presiding over the logical conclusion of Keynesian Economics; Debt Saturation. It is a logarithmic event that leaves Ben with but one option. Currency debasement (QE) to marginalize the debt load. The wealth of USD holders is simply unavoidable collateral damage.
Seriously, does it matter if Ben is crazy, evil or just plain wrong? QE 2 sounds like a lock and will have the same results regardless of his motivations. A $2T to $3T pump is what it is whether it comes from a philosopher-king or a mad man.
" b is all in. i don't get it. why? "
it is his job
Why do you go "all in" sometimes?
Simple because next time around you won't have enough cover the next "blind."
He has nothing.
By the way, you mentioned "Bernanke is gambling with our future".
They already did, they lost, and they know it.
The Fed could go on a hiring binge. Other than that they were "unable to break the back of this thing" and they should sit down.
Ben simply wants to juice the stock market and prop up home values. Nothing else. He doesn't really care about unemployment.
..and if anyone knows the dub mix of Siberian son's et.al. 'Going Home'.. the one with vocals in it- two.am., you're on yer own, are you going home? -phew, somone find my socks!
..it's easy to go with the flow, even make money doing it.. (except for two factors, the HFT predators and the significant overvaluation)- the real question is - and it's one that sits uncomfortably - is tis an opportunity to force the transfer of ownership, from the banks to the ordinary people? ..it's relevant, the banks, by all renditions of the laws, shouldn't be able to exist, that's where the assets appear to reside.. there are things coming to head now..food, pensions, judiciary standing, globalization, energy consumption, Chinese demand... there's no solution for all these..so to help the very system that has a track record of oppression and slavery (Athenian style) is a bitter pill to swallow..and for what?
Bruce,
I must disagree with you. Bernanke et al. are right to use QE to help the economy recover and more importantly to shore up severely underfunded pension plans. There is simply no choice. All of you here who keep pooing on the Fed still don't get it! Reflate & inflate will be the name of the game for a long, long, time, so keep buying them dips and for pete's sake, STOP FIGHTING THE FED!!!
anyone who wishes to understand the mindset of BB & his ilk should encourage Leo to continue posting here rather than discouraging him.
personally, i find the shift in language & tone in his & robo's comments quite illuminating.
rant on Leo.
No Leo, I am not going to stop.
You think this is about buying dips and making some short term money. That is insane. Do you live on this earth?
If I was pouring toxic chemicals into a river would you stop me? Or would you look the other way and try to make a buck off it? I think Bernanke will poison our well. Then we will have nothing to drink.
I have asked you this before, Do you have children? If not, I might understand your position a bit better. What right do you and the Fed have to muck up the lives of the next generation or two??
This is not about short term gains Leo. It is about survival. So I ain't quitting.
Bruce,
Look at the language your are using -- "poison the economy". This is pure nonsense and shows that many of you never took a course in the history of monetary economics. We like to think that this is the first time QE took place on a massive scale. Well folks, it ain't, so stop reading more into QE than the fact that the Fed will do whatever it takes to avoid a protracted period of debt deflation.
leo,
Check out Steve Keens Debtwatch and see how far along his non-linear model of a Minskian economy is, He so far has even qualitatively modeled "the great moderation". he is now starting to model government policy impacts. Bottom line this economist "gets it" and he shows unambiguously that the debt is the problem, and QE 2 will only hasten our demise. Maybe you should expand your academic horizons a bit?
Leo, don't even start with that academic credential attack. It doesn't take a Ph.D. in economics to see that the banks, many countries and most people are hopelessly in debt. The best outcome for them is massive inflation, which is another way of declaring debt forgiveness.
The downside of this plan is that all holders of paper and paper promises are hosed (on a global scale). When Bruce talks about poison to the economy, he is right in a figurative sense. I see that QE2 will confirm to the public that debtors can have what they want without paying for it. It's not even moral hazard anymore; it's moral treason to honest and responsible people everywhere. The "poison" is that theft will be sanctioned by law, so don't expect people to remain good.
To continue with the poker analogy: "Amarillo Slim, the greatest proposition gambler of all time, held to his father's maxim, You can shear a sheep many times, but skin him only once. This is a lesson Worm's never bothered to learn. He's already got them stuffed and mounted over his fireplace, and he's going for more. If he thinks they're stewing now, wait till they find out how he beat them." ("Rounders", p.49 of the screenplay)
This plan is skinning the sheep.
Yeah, wow, Leo. Hold your horses here. Suggesting that no one can have a valid opinion because they didn't take some course, probably taught by a Harvard "educator" is a step too far.
Monetary Economics 506? Just what the hell is that, anyway? May I ask you if you seriously believe that whatever you have learned in a classroom even vaguely resembles what we are experiencing today?
Back off a little with that (okay, back off a lot...), willya?
this is where you lose it Leo. Or what do think the planned cramdown on mortgage rates is, but targeted deflation? (i am sure they have a term disinflation targets or something) i heard the guest on Yahoo text ticker, saying "this is what the Fed wants, reflating the mortgage refi market puts money in consumers hands for 30 years.." You only know what they're saying, which is called jawboning, (def: to urge voluntary compliance through pressure or strong persuasion [THREATS]) my own feeling is that QE2 is jawboning, and threats only poison an economy which has a natural inclination to travel in another direction, or in another fashion, to some catharsis perhaps. In the meantime the Fed is managing that deflation, (which is to say handing out the poison in small amounts, so that everyone gets a dose) because as Bob Prechter says, the Fed cannot control the economy, or interest rates, they only follow the market.. the market is in deflation and they want to lead us there, so they can maintain control, they will drag out the turning event from which the economy could begin to recover..
If the bastards had any guts, and they wanted to stop this deflation they would raise the Fed rate 100 bps tomorrow, which is what they should have done two years ago. Being agents of the political status quo, such things are not possible.
A little help here please Leo. Please show me the page in the history book that says that "QE on a massive scale" has been done before???? What country did it? When was that? What was the outcome?
The Fed bought 90% of treasury bonds either directly or indirectly durring WWII. WWII was finanaced esentially with money printing by the Fed. Price controls and the government urging its citizens to buy war bonds was a ploy to hide the inflation that was occuring, but survival was on the peoples mind, not currency issues. As a perecent of the economy this was far larger "QE" than our current QE's. Of course we were the world's saviour then and a world empire now
See "Functions of the Federal Reserve System in Wartime", by Anna Youngman pub. 1945
http://ideas.repec.org/b/nbr/nberbk/youn45-1.html
As a result of this Money printing (QE), My dad vividly remember the 1945, '46, '47 Ford prices doubled each of the years for esentially the same vehicle.
form $400.00 in 1944 to $800.00 in '45 to $1550 in 1946..
The country was US and the reult was massive inflation. Me thinks the result will be the same but x100...
Leo runs a greek pension fund, that's it. Evidence seems to suggest that, that's why he wants QE to infinity, regardless of what loss of purchasing power that brings
Amen Bruce. QE 2 will destroy America for a generation at minimum.
very well said, bruce. excellent points re leo's view. bruce, you're take on bernanke's words versus his potential future actions and consequences are striking.
+1
I agree with Bruce's points, which happen to include thoughts of "morality".
However, I *also* agree with Bruce (*do* fight the Fed), from a practical standpoint: Leo, you can't inflate this away. The big reset is coming, and no, you can't "fix" those pensions. There is no scenario, even under the Fed's Super-Glorious-Happy-Planned-Future that the Baby Boomers get their pensions. (It mathematically cannot happen.)
It is interesting that Leo does *not* want to fight the Fed for morality (let the Boomers get their pensions, the alternative is unthinkable), while Bruce *wants* to fight the fed for morality (stop the Fed from poisoning the economy). IMHO, Bruce is right (Leo's future is not possible). However, I've come to appreciate that "the unthinkable" is too big for many to handle, and you're not a "bad" person if you don't want to know that the Comet will collide with Earthy tomorrow at 4:32pm, annihilating every living thing. (Some people want to know, some do not, and neither group is wrong.)
Leo, IMHO you're a smart guy. However, you're going to have to get used to the idea that there is no scenario by which these pensions get paid: People will be scrimping to put food on the table, and will *not* send taxes to subsidize government checks to retirees with income 4x-20x as that of the scrimpers. Governments all over the planet will no longer be able to print coupons that claim chickens and tomatoes that people have growing in their back yards.
i think Big Ben B is doing a great job - my gold keeps going on up and up.
Just listening to Armin Van Buuren on '10 years' album
Zocalo - Armin van Buuren featuring Gabriel & Dresden
the theme from the movie 'sunshine' - truly wonderful after 3/4 of a bottle of red wine
Gordon, the only people losing anything are the middle-classes and below.. there will still be the need for lawyers, doctors- the rich aren't going to lose much at all, as a class.. there is no serios downside risk from a great depression. There's pensions, that's a real problem- but again, it sorts the men from, essentially, the middle-class. And right now, the Fed's justifcation IS pensions. ..the current system under threat is the dollar and employment, and the savings of the middle-class: the people who own the FED own assets - they can always state their current wealth in terms of the currency du jour- so their wealth base isn't under threat; the Fed is merely an accounting office, from the perspective of the owners...what owns the slaves is a) lack of access to basic resources and b) a need for a legal tender in exchange for... that's how we can see the G as developing countries- these factors are starkly up front.
Only in a Fed-controlled upside-down world does "full employment" leave 5% of the populace unemployed.
If only the unemployment actually was 9.5%
If the current system collapses, our ruling oligarchs who control the Fed have their lives to lose. So I'd say they have a lot to gain. Of course, they really don't give a shit if the general slave public gains anything or not.
Note that long-term unemployment (greater than 26 weeks) has historically been ~ 1% and is now at ~ 5%. So even when the "official" unemployment rate was 5%, the long-term unemployed as ~1%. Of course the numbers don't count folks who don't even bother to look for work....
GG, It can't be zero can it? There is always some folks enering and leaving the work force. That is normal. So the notion of Full Employment has come to mean 95% of all workers having jobs.
...wouldn't it be nice if, there were just a handful of people who owned the Fed? ..then, all the badness could be undone by logical persuasion - show the men some facts, refute their arguments, show them the mistake they must have made in their calculations, hey presto...these few men could fix the system in days...
Look, for a thousand years, there have been the super-rich, who have controlled the world, through money. Capitalism - you need Banks for capitalism to work. China, Russia - none of the international banks. ...you think the economic depression we're going through is unfortunate, but without it, people would not be desperate, for work, for food, for aspirin...and when people are desperate, they're not going to bite the hand that feeds them. ...so this means, high Unemployment is the key to keeping the current economic structure intact. ..the people can rage against anyone, as long as it's not the people with money....you want to take back your lives.. and I strongly suggest you do because I don't see the Fed winning this.. get court permission to start an agrarian-backed community currency...it's time to go home Dorothy.
Bernanke is the illogical outcome of economic theory that posits value is somehow rooted in money creation rather than labor output. He and his ilk are so far removed from reality they are akin to a blind man piloting Air Force One toward a landing based upon the leadings of an "invisible hand". It may be seem rational to them, but for anyone with common sense it is clear these guys are imbeciles with way, way too much authority for their ridiculous flights of fantasy. Only prison sentences will correct the injustices they've unleashed on America's economy, and that won't happen given the bribes their henchmen have paid to rule the roost.
Mikla:
"there's no reason the dollar need fall when the US falls."
Interesting point - I will keep this in mind - definately not on any radar screens currently.
Bruce:
It is all "Fed Speak" - but they are, as always, up to something. I always try to keep in mind the following:
"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."
From a 2004 New York Times Magazine article by Ron Suskind interviewing an anonymous Bush administration advisor. Quote later attributed to Karl Rove.
In their own minds these people view themselves as "the agents of history", i.e. alpha actors on the world's stage. Bernanke is their "boy" - but he is not, IMO, one of the "deciders", as "W" was wont to call himself. RoRo's "Who owns the Fed" is quite to the point here.
They have a "plan" - even if it's a bad one and it blows up in their faces. Meanwhile, either way, the "commoners" will continue to suffer.
But, the western power elite are not going to just roll over and give up their thrones as the Agents of History to the Chinese and the Russians. (QE2 or not)
You can bet on that!!!
All just little bits of history repeating.
'Let them eat cake' of long ago is now equal to a congress woman not knowing what $ amount the minimum wage is. Or congress people hiring illegal help. Or handing pork to the welloff in the community because the congress person knows they will get some of it back in the form of donations.
It is inevitable. Behold, Neo arises! Rises again as he has in every past of the same ilk. And no, Mr. Smith will not be able to stop him this time around either.
To quote Neo..."I don't know how it will end, but I know how it will begin." The die is cast, the board is set for checkmate. The centre cannot hold.
I worry that violence is quite inevitable now if Timmy is wrong. I fear for humanity.