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Bernanke's “All In"

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

Bernanke had this to say about the employment situation yesterday:

We need to do our part to help the economy recover” and ensure job growth in the U.S The labor market is growing “too slowly,”

Today William Dudley (FRB NY) chimed in:

The outlook for U.S. job growth and inflation is “unacceptable” and that the Fed will probably need to take action to spur the recovery and avert deflation.

We all know that the unemployment story is a disaster. This graph from the CBO tells the story in a different way.

Current unemployment is 9.5%. The concept of “Full Employment” would
still have unemployment at around 5%. So the status today is better
stated, “We are about 4.5% above what we would like to be on unemployment”.
Looking again at the CBO graph you see that unemployment for greater
than 26 weeks is now at a post WWII record of 4.5%. Exactly the same as
the current shortfall to the desired Full Employment.

That is not a coincidence. The long-term nature of unemployment we face
today is structural. We have exported too many jobs. You can’t fix that
problem overnight. And you can’t fix it with another jolt of short-term
monetary stimulus. As Philadelphia Fed’s Charles Plosser said this week:

“It
is difficult, in my view, to see how additional asset purchases by the
Fed, even if they move interest rates on long-term bonds down by 10 or
20 basis points, will have much impact on the near-term outlook for
employment.”

What troubles me is that Bernanke is well aware of the fact that his is
pushing on a string. There is nothing he can do to address America’s
structural unemployment. Yet it is increasingly clear that he will act
on November 4th. The comment, “We need to do our part”, says it all. Bernanke is committed with these words.

Do we really need to go down this dangerous road? From the Fed:

9/21/2010 (minutes)
The
Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource
utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of
economic recovery is likely to be modest in the near term.

This says to me, “We are going in the right direction, we wish it were faster though”.
There is no sense of urgency in the Feds words. “Modest” recovery does
not justify extraordinary measures. From Bernanke at Jackson Hole on
8/27:

“The
deep economic contraction had ended, and we were seeing broad
stabilization in global economic activity and the beginnings of a
recovery.”

Nothing scary in those words.

“For a
sustained expansion to take hold, growth in private final
demand--notably, consumer spending and business fixed investment--must
ultimately take the lead. On the whole, in the United States, that critical handoff appears to be under way.”

Sounds encouraging to me.

“I expect the economy to continue to expand in the second half of this year, albeit at a relatively modest pace.”

Why is modest such a bad thing? Should we gamble big time to get growth above modest?

Bernanke has been doing his level best to sell QE-2. He has been
parading Fed Governors and talking on the quiet to the press. I feel
like I am being barraged by an ad campaign. But he has not sold me. To
do that he has to convince me that there is a direct correlation to QE-2
and the structural unemployment problem. He can’t do that. There is no connection.

The next QE starts at 1 Trillion. I think it has to be an open ended
approach this time. In other words, “The sky is the limit”. It could
easily go to $2T. At that point we will have monetized nearly 50% of
public sector debt. Nothing like this has ever been done before
(successfully).

Bernanke is gambling with our future. He is making an all in bet on our
behalf. QE-2 will cause all manner of distortions. But it won’t address
the central problem we are facing. For the life of me I can’t imagine
how Bernanke can roll the dice like this. Why bet so big when there is
so little to gain?

 

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Sat, 10/02/2010 - 01:37 | 620440 Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

"For the life of me I can’t imagine how Bernanke can roll the dice like this. Why bet so big when there is so little to gain?"

Because Bernake is keenly aware that the demoratic process has been completely subverted and we are in the grasp of slave holding corporate owners.  The problems are large my friend.  Some people get it and some people don't.  ALl the foregoing notwithstanding it's at the point where it's going to be a war.

 

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 01:09 | 620411 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

All Bernanke needs to do is stop lying and start speaking the truth.

It would be catastropic for the financial sector of course, but the economy would actually start recovering.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 23:07 | 620225 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

they understand your problem. you imagine the feds balance sheet tripling overnight. No, they will PROMISE to use extraordinary means, then proceed along the usual path of INCREMENTALISM. suppose the Fed said, we are prepared to defend the dollar at a level five percent below the current rate? how do you think that would affect the market, the market would never see that rate for a nanosecond

(they've already said the same thing about equities.

most of it is jawboning.  but from the Feds perspective, whos' got their backs? to that end there is the endless round of POMO, to bribe the banks to go along they offer interest on money they loan out at zero interest.

and who's got their backs? does Goldman? Paulson? JPM? maybe, but should the Fed impair its balance sheet to that certain tipping point, those banks will give them a push.

 

the real issue methinks is will Treasury try to monetize the Feds bad mortgage paper? If the Dems lose enough seats, will the rebels shout no mas!! then the Fed is gone, and the political class is finished as well. extinct. that's what its all about, no skin off BB'snose personally, he is just doing a job, arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Oh well.

 

 

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 22:49 | 620193 Mark Beck
Mark Beck's picture

FED public speak is for the politicians. The only reoccuring theme is there is no theme. It is clear that message is unclear. FED public guidence is pathetic in relation to the power they hold over our currency. The employment situation is not a FED priority. Nor is protecting the dollar.

Any QE2 will be to fund government and control rates. It is not for the health of the economy.

The administration is just as reckless as the FED. Bernanke needs to guage the new congress and will not tip the existing balance. QE2 will not be enacted until after the election. Ben's focus is more on the banking sector for Q3 reporting. Writeoffs and deed transfer problems will push the financials into decline.

The failure to pass a new budget is a symptom of the election cycle. FED action will have to wait.

Mark Beck

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 16:46 | 621224 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

anyone know when the banks start reporting their Q3 results?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 22:48 | 620190 win
win's picture

WE need to do our part . . .

We . . .

You got a mouse in yer procket?

Who IS this mythical, magical "we"?

“We need to do our part . . .Bernanke said . .  at a forum with teachers ...

Ah HAH! Teachers! - it's the teachers that are now tasked with creating new jobs.

Yea, I still confused

mAyBe, sInCe wE dOnT mAKe aNyThInG aNyMoRe, we can hire people to teach - yea, they can teach more people how to NOT manufacture anything anymore - more teachers that's what we need

The plan simply is to expand public secotr employment when what we need is manufacturing sector employment

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 22:09 | 620118 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Maybe Ben knows something(s) we don't. 

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 00:11 | 620330 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Obviously.........what is it we don't know?

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 10:47 | 620764 blindman
blindman's picture

the nature of the master - slave relationship.

he knows it.  we don't.  too abhorrent to contemplate

for most.

keywords:  looting and fraud as systemic fundamentals.

the "system" since 1913.  he knows this.  

sheesh.  how many times does it have to be said before

it sinks in?   there is an overall structure and it has a function.

a forest we do not see for the trees.  the forest.  see it.

looting is the name of this forest.  on FI.R.E.. 

 

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 22:03 | 620110 Mr.Kowalski
Mr.Kowalski's picture

Big Ben's trillion dollar printapalooza will send the Yen and the Sw-Franc into outer space.. and with it, their economies into a devilish tailspin. God I'm lovin those 60-1 Swiss Bank leverage ratio's. My grandpa once told me "just relax and watch the pretty fireworks from far away". 

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 21:52 | 620099 Double down
Double down's picture

I think it is hyper dangerous to assume QE is a done deal.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 23:00 | 620211 abalone
abalone's picture

Ah yes, that reminds me "The road to hell is paved with good intentions"

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 21:56 | 620078 knukles
knukles's picture

Plus another reason, a very special rumor about why things are being done as they are.  There is one rumored occurrence with Benji, Timmah and Larry in the Oval Orifice, accompanied by several powerful members of the Council on Foreign Relations, Trilateral Commission and Bilderberg Group of which several are members.  
It is rumored that it was to that very meeting that Ben brought several ancient and powerful mystical objects and symbols.  Upon display of such to the collected August group, silence befell them all, amazed, indeed in awe of the spectacle before their very eyes.  From a small, unwashed potato, Ben had produced light with a small flash-lite bulb and two pieces of wire attached to delicate pieces of secret metals inserted therein.
Larry, prodded awake by the President asking the opinion of the smartest man in the room, was unable to speak coherently, apparently so enthralled by the demonstration that his head dropped suddenly onto the conference table with a loud thud and he proceeded to make soft moaning sounds till snoring peacefully.
After a long silence, Timmah asked Ben in an almost perfect, soft theatrical aside what the symbol of the pyramid with the all seeing eye on top was next to the word "ONE" on the piece of dirty crumpled linen be-speckled with green writing and squiggly marks measuring 6.2 by 2.6 inches that was being illuminated by the bulb.
In demonstration, Ben took his Mount Blanc pen and briskly inserted it in Timmah's left eye and screamed;  "This is (To the violent poking motion, squishy sound and expellation of ocular fluid.) a Meisterstuck, you moron. God damned idiot.  See! (Laughing uncontrollably at his intended pun, sounding every bit the Merlinian Wizard he felt himself to secretly be.)  See! (Wiggling the Mount Blanc around Timmah's eyes socket in a circular motion.)  It's a god damned potato battery you fucking moron, that every third grader knows how to make and what you're asking about is the backside of the one dollar bill I was going to give you for your birthday but maybe you'd be safer with a one year gift subscription to the Jello of the Month club."
To which the vice president lifted his gaze from the mysterious shining object and said aloud; "Now that's a big fucking deal.", thinking of being able to announce total energy independence from the nefarious Canooks of  the north, for he felt that he alone knew, Idaho has many potatoes. 
And thus, repeatedly displaying the innermost secrets of the most powerful rites and miracles of what they figured must be the Illuminati, Ben is charged to go forth, tasked with printing an infinite volume of digital currency for the good of mankind.  He is trusted.

And we all lived happily ever after with Eeyore, Pooh and Christopher Robin in the Poor House.

Sun, 10/03/2010 - 09:48 | 622053 Quantum Future
Quantum Future's picture

Priceless that is . Yes.

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 10:10 | 620720 blindman
blindman's picture

http://maxkeiser.com/

.

 warning:  this is disorienting and probably not suitable

cartoon remixing for children of any age.

Ben Bernanke meets the Gold vigilantes October 2nd, 2010 by maxkeiser
winnie the pooh meets apocalypse now ....
Sat, 10/02/2010 - 17:06 | 621249 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

nice one blindman.

found this link in the comments on a possible locust plague in australia.

http://b4in.com/dpxMyY

also click on the link to sky news and watch the videos.

sure was a crazy mushroom trip john of patmos had.


Sat, 10/02/2010 - 00:15 | 620342 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Thresher

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 21:40 | 620074 E pluribus unum
E pluribus unum's picture

The Fed won't hear anything about $1500/oz gold but wait till oil jumps over $100/barrel. There won't be a democrat left in Washington DC. It's his worst noghtmare. The entire house of cards goes then

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 16:43 | 621221 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

maybe not oil this time but food.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 21:27 | 620037 blindman
blindman's picture

you might want to consider the term

looting,  granted in an expensive suit.  o.k. , that

makes it legit.  so let's call it a mistake of

judgement. ( not looting trillions ).

when has the world ever seen such a well dressed man,

and socially esteemed, resort to mere thievery/piracy?  ridiculous.

  qe2.... and 1, not the

greatest treasury heist in the history of the world, in

broad daylight, just flawed ideology?

william black.  "epidemic of.. fraud"

hmm?   and the monetary system makes everyone

an accessory to a ponzi fraud that dictates the limits

of their minds and lives.  oh joy!  

jobs?  the solution is to increase fraud and the disparity

between the rich (recipients of government hand outs/the

banking / financial system) and the poor ( the rest ).

the system has run it's course and all that is left is political

looting dressed up as something else,  sideshows.

so more qe and bigger bonuses are called for,  no indictments

arrests and crazy conspiracy investigations are needed.

let's get on with it.

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 11:53 | 620839 roymunnson
roymunnson's picture

With literally the world on their shoulders....

 

Ever notice how these guys never seem to be stressed?

 

why is that?

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 12:31 | 620907 blindman
blindman's picture

i thought it had something to do with the near infinite plasticity

of the human mind and the near blindness of the human heart but...

and also the wonders of better modern living through chemistry,

specifically zanax, ridlin and other type prozac etc. and what not...

http://www.biopsychiatry.com/

.

but my wife says ..

" it's all a game to them, never let them see you sweat.  they're

professionals, never forget that, that is the most important part.  that's it"

.

professionals.  they are paid to not sweat and stress.  leave that to

the "free market". 

i think charles munger summed it up well recently,  the fat old bastard

dissolving into his leather chair. 

linear thinking, attention and focus resulting in massive ignorance and

greater self deception,  with a prozac chaser.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 21:01 | 619964 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

Ok, listen up IDIOTS in WASHINGTON! If you're really serious about jump-starting the economy and producing jobs then do this: Suspend all TAXES (personal, corporate, income, capital gains Etc...). Let people/employers keep all their money so they can buy consumer products again, start a new savings account, pay-off debt and allow business' to grow again. Oh yeah, take your healthcare bill out back to the wood shed and shred it. If you are unable to do this, then you truly are IDIOTS who deserve to lose your jobs this fall & later. All your doing now is spinning our wheels and hastening our demise. Which in the end will be your demise too. Misery loves company and you're invited to attend the festivities! Your all worthless and weak! In fact, go fuck yourselves. I'm buying more Gold/Silver just to piss you off!

 

Hoser

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 20:51 | 619938 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Let me put it this way;

FUCK You Bruce,

FUCK You Bruce

FUCK You Bruce

FUCK You Whoever, what ever your name.

Get It???

If it is repeated enough eventually it is believed.

FUCK YOU

not nice but maybe, hopefully you may have a chance Fucker......if you can wake up.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 22:55 | 620205 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

Deep thoughts-with Jack Handy?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 21:16 | 620003 akak
akak's picture

That was uncalled for (and I have made some severe retorts in this forum in my time here).

If you are going to blast somebody, you should at least tell them, and us, WHY you are blasting them.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 23:28 | 620256 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

the Key is in the Why which BK was very smart to put out there, akak........no offense intended, in the least to you.

it's not personall for the banks, it's collective........the logic from the banks POV........the shortest distance between 2 points is a straight line........

my translation of what i read = fuck as many as possible with the least effort.

can you answer the question about WHY as an American you cannot know who owns the FED?

sorry, but the reality is that until you know the answer it is a 'fuck you reality'.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 23:32 | 620264 akak
akak's picture

OK, got you now.  I originally thought that you were directly all that at Bruce personally, and I could not understand why.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 23:56 | 620277 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

well, that is all very fucking nice and lovely, but the real question stands........who owns the FED???

with emphasis;

Who owns the FED???

WHO OWNS the FED???

WHO the fuck owns the FED???

Who can answer that question?????

and, kiddies, once we get past that elementary start then the grade 1's get to ask the Why?

Why?

Why?

Why?

Keep it simple; who, who, who?.......and why, why, why?

Fine Print/Disclaimer; I was run over by a car when I was 5 which I have stated before so wake the fuck up.

 

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 13:58 | 621035 Rick64
Rick64's picture

Fucking excellent question, and points out the very disturbing fact that we don't even know who owns the entity that controls our monetary system.

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 13:39 | 621004 Attitude_Check
Attitude_Check's picture

EXACTLY, Ben is knows the "owners" are in SERIOUS trouble and he is trying the hep them.  The fact that mortgage backed securities are going to DETONATE as the FRAUD of MERS is beginning to be understood and exploited by the lawyers - can we say bankrupt?  How about RICO?

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 00:26 | 620352 ATG
ATG's picture

R & R own the Fed through nominees and proxies

They have the most influence, intelligence services, military, money and concealed power

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 09:56 | 620706 blindman
blindman's picture

royal family / rothchild ? 

j wiley  said the only country that has a foreign

owned central bank is the united states

with its federal reserve owned by entities in london.

entities / people ?  we still haven't made the legal

distinction to any satisfactory degree here in the usa.

shadows, cutouts and ghosts. 

.

 

America are also giving away laws for the benefit of protecting corporations:

Democracy Now had an explosive first headline today;
Court Exempts Corporations from Alien Tort Law http://www.democracynow.org/2010/9/29/headlines#1

Palantír

Sep 30, 2010 at 12:01 am

"As I understand it, a corporation is a legal person, it has the same rights as a natural person except for the right to vote in an election. Now this shocking ruling in US court eliminates the pain-in-the-ass-problem for a corporation of being sued (hold responsible) for any human rights violations done abroad on behalf of the company. Let loose the dogs of war!

“…In a separate opinion, Second Circuit Judge Pierre Leval criticized the ruling, writing, “The majority opinion deals a substantial blow to international law and its undertaking to protect fundamental human rights… So long as they incorporate, businesses will now be free to trade in or exploit slaves, employ mercenary armies to do dirty work for despots, perform genocides or operate torture prisons for a despot’s political opponents, or engage in piracy—all without civil liability to victims…” (from Democracy Now)"....

.

 http://maxkeiser.com/2010/09/29/philip-manduca-says-there-has-never-been-an-empire-so-willing-to-give-its-wealth-and-power-away-like-america/

.

2:55 "There hasn't been an empire in the history of mankind that has given away its wealth and its power base like the United States is currently doing. What are you doing? You've got 20% unemployment, you're trying to bailout out the Chinese, you're trying to bailout the Indians, you're trying to bailout the Middle East, and no peace is arising you've got wars still everywhere. So what are you doing? Why are you allowing this huge transfer of your wealth to these other countries, who, I promise you, from and international perspective, are laughing."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/philip-manduca-american-empire-2010-9#ixzz11D1r4LS6

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 00:46 | 620363 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Can you please clarify for the benefit of all?.......who/what is R & R and how is it related to the FED?

And, thank you.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 23:59 | 620308 akak
akak's picture

I'll take "Evil Men" for 600, Alex.

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 00:09 | 620324 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

..........suffered a nosebleed and choked to death.

 


Fri, 10/01/2010 - 22:32 | 620154 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

Its okay. Roro needs to rant. Doesn't everyone?

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 13:17 | 620979 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Thanks for the forum Bruce.

Perhaps Roro ( a knuckle dragger) is asking you for a date.

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 17:12 | 621244 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Kayman,

I am a bit curious because your comment about me seems inappropriate.

I raised valid points.......maybe a bit over the top, but so what?.......still valid points nonetheless.

Is the reference supposed to be a backhanded insult or something???........not that I give a shit.......but if you feel I pissed you off for some reason then just let me know.

And, not asking Bruce for a date or you eiher for that matter unless you are interested in a visit to the Irish Parliament.

I have no problem dealing with your issue if you feel like you want to clarify it.

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 05:22 | 620538 RichardP
RichardP's picture

That exchange was worth putting into song.

Gnarls Barkley, with the coyishly titled Fuck You.  Hot on the charts with a 60's soul groove.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pc0mxOXbWIU&feature=player_embedded

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 13:09 | 620963 blindman
blindman's picture

"ain't that some shit".

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 23:18 | 620242 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

Thanks Bruce.........obviously it wasn't directed at you.......

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 20:44 | 619928 PeterB
PeterB's picture

I'm afraid The FED will keep doing this until they force Europe, Japan, China or who ever it is they seek to destroy to fold & default on their unserviceable debt burden.  When they (the victim/victims) finally come to the realisation that this criminal organisation (The FED) can keep playing the game as they are the casino operator with unlimited gaming chips then we shall begin to see the renaissance in the metamorphosis of the USD.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 21:06 | 619977 mikla
mikla's picture

+1

It's a war.  It looks like Ben is going to launch another salvo at Europe, Japan, China, etc., to force those dominos fall first (force their defaults).  The last guy standing wins.

You might suggest that the dominos will trigger the "end game" for the Fed also, but I'm not so sure.  Yes, the US will also sovereign default.  However, upon US sovereign default the Fed will thus be "free'd" from the constraints of its US charter, and could then pick up a charter from the IMF, thereby operating as the ONLY currency printer remaining on the planet -- unconstrained by any nation.

Remember that nations all over the planet are now issuing sovereign debt denominated in dollars, and as the world reserve currency, the VAST majority of all other contracts are similarly denominated in dollars.  Since the Fed is a private institution, there's no reason the dollar need fall when the US falls.

The logistics to handle delivery of oil and other goods internationally requires the transaction to be settled in some unit.  The IMF-backed dollar would do that.

That's my "nightmare" scenario.  I'm not joking.  A world reserve currency, unconstrained by any given nation, is ANY central banker's wet dream.

However, on the bright side, there's a chance that the Fed dies when the US sovereign defaults.  That would be nice.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 20:36 | 619918 Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

Why bet so big when there is so little to gain?

there's little to gain for you, me and us. And all to gain for the puppet masters. The end game is when the house collects all bets. bruce, when will you stop analyzing what comes out of some shtadlan's mouth and focus on what the hofjuden are doing and for whom? That's what I want to know.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 20:32 | 619905 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Good question, Bruce.  At this point, the risk of unintended consequences is out of all proportion to reward.  Maybe he is just drunk on power.  Washington does that to people.

They certainly don't know or care how businessmen think.  The uncertainty of ObummerCare, taxes, price level, and the rest have everything frozen, but they keep playing stupid games.  Amazing.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 20:26 | 619894 optimator
optimator's picture

Ben Shalom knows exactly what he's doing, and it ain't for our sake. 

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 20:39 | 619904 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

No fucking kidding and so, what are you going to do about it?

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 00:15 | 620340 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

It's obvious.   We're going to sit around our computer monitors and talk tough.

What would you like?   Be concrete and clear.

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 13:12 | 620970 Kayman
Kayman's picture

IDEAS, LIGHT of DAY, that is what ZH'rs ought to be doing. And that is what ZH'rs are doing.  

Everyday, the thin gruel dished out by the MSM is eaten by fewer people.

Make no mistake IDEAS are what will kill the beast.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!