This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The Best Indicator Of Economic Health?
Courtesy of Nic Lenoir, ICAP
Traditionally, many people in the industry view the ISM as the best stock market predictor. With a GDP being calculated as the total production of the country I guess it makes sense. But the ISM completely ignores the financial health of the country. That's why, as some only found out recently, having 4% growth on borrowed money for 4 or 5 years doesn't do you any good when comes the time to repay your debt. This is one example of how short-sighted economic reporting can be sometimes. Granted, if you start adjusting growth for population growth, inflation, and debt creation, you will not necessarily get much, especially these days. But even if that led to a darker picture, wouldn't it be a more coherent fundamental assessment of economic progress.
ABC consumer confidence has been lagging any sort of recovery we are currently having. All economists are unanimous though, the business cycle is in full effect and we are headed for 3% to 4% Q4 growth. Numbers don't lie, activity has picked up. However there is a slight problem, consumer credit is shrinking, wages are certainly not higher, and confidence is low. Last time we fueled growth using credit, consumer confidence picked up but modestly only, and we are now seeing lows not seen since the recession in 1991. A look at the attached chart of consumer comfort against ISM and GDP makes it very clear, and we also see that ISM is usually a leading indicator, maybe explaining why consumer comfort is currently trailing green shoots. Interestingly it seems the cycles in consumer satisfaction correspond with 8-year presidential cycles. I am only observing, as I don't have enough data to go more than two preseidents (Clinton and Bush II) on the chart, so this is in no way an expression of my political opinion. But will the pick up in ISM this time again lead to a pick up in consumer comfort and prosperity? It's difficult to assess. My inclination is that we have many secular problems to deal with and credit infused prosperity at the individual level is not really a possibility.
To go around the difficulty of the consumer's balance sheet, already rotten with debt, the government has made it its mission to restart the economy using sovereign debt. In essence whether it's the Fed or the government, this is what always happens anyways, and that is precisely why production always leads consumer confidence. But this time we have a real problem, because we are trying to restart an economy with a level of debt never encountered before. What I find trully fascinating is that we are already claiming victory. This recession is over, and even though growth will be subpar, we are led to believe all is well. The stock market certainly says so. Is the stock market a good indicator of economic prosperity? I don't know but it's not the point. The point of all this is to show that economic activity always front-runs consumer prosperity because governments somehow spur activity, whether it's through the private sector or themselves, everytime the economy is in decline. So in a sense, the government uses the ISM or the stock market (both move in sync historically anyways) to assess its performance, and that is where it is dangerous, because as we discussed earlier ISM is only one component of economic prosperity. It is certainly necessary to have a strong production to have an economy that functions well, but at what cost?
By no means is government intervention an American problem. My original inclination was to blame democracy, as elected representatives will do anything for a short-term boost in outlook to scure their re-election or legacy. But it is very interesting to see that every government around the world is doing the exact same, whether that government is elected or not. The US government bails its banks and its economy using taxpayer money, just like European governments or even the Chinese government. What's completely absurd is that by nature of ideology, capitalist countries should let failed institution sink and care for the fiscal health of the country, socialist countries should prop the economy using public money but let stocks go bust and takeover failed institutions or businesses to punish failure of capitalist enterprise, and China... well a communist country with a stock market and a currency that one can't trade is absurd in the first place. It's not banks that are too big to fail, it's our economy that can't tolerate shrinking for a few quarters. One thing is for sure propping the economy up because we can't tolerate volatility, whether it's in the GDP numbers or the stck market, is a very bad idea in the long term, and we have been doing it for a very long time. If it works this time it will be worst the next. By trying to fight volatility we are guarantying explosions of volatility far more painful than what would occure otherwise.
The best indicator of health would be a GDP declining to reflect we have moved our manufacturing overseas, we have too much debt, and unfunded pensions are a ticking time bomb that makes the housing market a pleasure to deal with.
»
- 11813 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Buy stocks. Invest in the future. No way can things get any worse.
Of course Kim Jong Il could buy all the banks in the US and hold us all hostage.
Rubbish. Of course things can and will get worse.
Government cannot afford to sacrifice the currency anymore than government can afford to fund current and future liabilities with higher and higher debts.
We haven't even seen the massive reductions in government spending at all levels yet and there are people ready to predict growth.
Municipal, state and federal governments are either broke or close to it. Revenues are declining more than anticipated and new or higher taxation is not going to help.
Please, enlighten me. Where is sustainable growth supposed to come from?
Only accounting gimmicks and the proposed universal health care system.
Most people don't know this, but once the government option becomes available ALL businesses will drop their plans and tell employees to join the public option. This is exactly what happens to retirees with medical coverage - medicare (public) coverage is primary.
Therefore, the future growth in corporations will come from the elimination of the corporate cost of health care - of course citizens will still pay for it through taxes but it will improve the financials of corporations. Those corporations would also argue that it makes them better able to compete internationally with companies that reside in countries with public health care.
And now you know.
Perhaps an irony transplant would help.
Of course things can and will go bad. The first indicator is that banks are worth next to nothing, of a value low enough that Kim could purchase them. We are on a road that leads to having a leader like Kim in place. We are broke and the only economy left is a command economy like that of North Korea.
Look at what is up: Banks taken over. Financial industry takeover with Fannie, Freddie, and all the other machinations with Lehman, Bear, etc. Car makers taken over. Healthcare being taken over. Next up: carbon credits to take over the energy industry. After that police and local government. Drug industry is certainly in line for a takeover, if the ponderous FDA rules have not done that de facto, and legislation enacted that prohibits drug imports into the US.
I still think the big banks will go down. Not because of a bank run out of fear of the banks, but a bank run out of fear of having any dollars at all.
Sure the j6p with 400 bucks in their account won't care, but the people with big money, the ones who really matter to the big banks, will start pulling USD in droves to convert into something with lasting value.
watch the deposit bases very carefully.
That is a really good point... I sit with money in multiple accounts that the bank would likely raise an eyebrow if I withdrew... and those accounts are SAVINGS ACCOUNTS... I crack myself up when I go online to look at my accounts. But with the same reasoning as you indicate above I feel these assets need to be as liquid as possible... so they can be moved quickly... into different currencies or hard appreciating assets as the dollar fades. I will likely be one of those people who quickly wire money out as the USD becomes more worthless (I am hoping for one more bump up in the USD and work the currency trades back down again)... and leaving the banks scrambling as others follow suit. This was not an issue in the Great Depression... you were kind of stuck with your American investments... however it is relevant in today's world... so I agree it could become an issue for the banks.
you better send that wire before they slap some capital controls on and lock you in ;)
Good point...
they already took your swiss accounts... better find a new safe haven.
Banks, Finance, Auto Manufacturers, and Health Care taken over. But why?
The answer is their business plans failed. They fucked it up. The government did not fuck it up for them. Do you want the whole economy to crash just to make a moral point about the risks of cannibal capitalism? Do the workers have any say in that?
If you want private industries to remain private, then stakeholders have to think less about next quarters numbers and more about long term stability.
Dude, it's called sarcasm.
Funny you should mention Kim Jong Il b/c his idiocy is being paralleled by our government's short-sightedness. Lil'Kim wanted to solve North Korea's poverty/hunger problem by breading large rabbits. Only problem was that he didn't realize they consumed more food than they yielded. http://www.11points.com/News-Politics/11_Craziest_Kim_Jong-Il_Moments
Replace 'giant rabbits' with 'giant stimulus' and you get the picture...
Mmmmmmm, breaded large rabbits. Deep fried I hope.
"All economists are unanimous though, the business cycle is in full effect and we are headed for 3% to 4% Q4 growth. Numbers don't lie, activity has picked up."
I would really like to hear or read which business is reporting more demand, more orders, more overall activity than previous years.
Where is the growth? Adjusted by soon to expire government subsidies please.
For what its worth, i work for a consulting company that works with small and medium sized businesses. most of the clients i talk to daily are reporting a pickup. however, they are all also excited about the recent stock market run up and believe in green shoots. i think if enough people believe it, activity will (and has started to) pick up. however, the question of at what cost/what about next time still remain. i liked the post, keep up the good work ZH.
this is where the tightening of credit comes into play... despite believing in green shoots, without the wherewithal to carry out their business plans, hope is pointless.
I'm sure there are private individuals interested in partnering in a venture but why at this time?
Why now?
The banks screwed the system just last year. Government has no control over the banks and lives by their word. Why would I throw more good money after bad?
Thanks for that. I'd like to hear more "on the ground" testimony about what is going on "out there".
Sure.
Talked to a VP of a local bank in Minnesota (just a couple of branches). They are close to going under, small business is getting crushed and RE developers are dropping like flies. This person was scared shitless.
Talked to someone in sales at a electronic parts supplier. Their business is down 30%-40%. Consumer electronics are doing ok, but Autos just crushed their business.
I appreciate the response. My business activity is slower than last year's despite a fairly decent calendar Q1/2. I don't see improvement in Q3/4 and all bets are off when it comes to churning out a budget. However, I'd be willing to buy up a competitor or buy into a different business if I could only figure out why at this time? Just because the sm is up and pie-in-the-sky propaganda is telling people 24/7 that things will get better? Of course things will get better eventually but it hasn't gotten worse enough yet and neither the liquidity nor the fresh credit are there to grow into anything.
Pardon my French.. WTF is growing other than government balance sheets and government debts?
I don't fall for it. Instead looking at more cutbacks, more savings and being meaner and leaner all around. Got kids to feed, not banks to support. They've (over)exposed themselves with the charade that was played and it's crystal clear that they're desperate.
Real concern of mine is where to park what's left of assets and make sure nobody knows about it. Especially not any starving idiot bureaucrat becoming "wealth inspector".
Gold and useable land are a good hedge imo.
Call it "stuck on traditional stupid". It's worked for generations.
Cheers.
I think a lot of this optimism will die out once people realize the value of their homes is not going to recover for decades, if ever. a lot of people still count on that equity returning. when it doesn't, reality will set in.
as for the wealth effect from the stock market, that will be pretty short lived. it is being driven by liquidity, which is killing the dollar, which is also spiking commodity prices. does the increase in stock market wealth offset the decrease in purchasing power? not for the masses.
our system is built on milking the masses for all they have, they putting them into debt to milk them some more.
unemployment up, median wages down, further declines in house prices ahead.
Nothing else matters as the stock markets 50% rise will be 99.8% of GDP
I can see the tech sector benefit from companies and government trying to get what they think they need while they still can and I can see people going stocking, preparing etc for windows 7 roll out. it'll probably have a small initial run and then peter off. But the world is picking up not the trashed components of europe and america. It's end around activity that affects global businesses that will have little affects in localized economies.
Please see the Press release by TXN and PG today. Thank you
PG lowering prices is amazing...they have been very hard headed about this, swearing just a few months ago that they would not lower prices on quality products, particularly Tide. lo and behold, a month or 2 ago they said they were rolling out a lower priced version of Tide.
I'm no PG expert, but this just sings deflation to me.
you are correct. global inflation and domestic deflation sucks. PG was facing increasing costs and margin compression forced to lower prices to maintain quantity sold.
"If it works this time it will be worst the next."
Spot on.
Mos - where did you get that great image of Chairman Ben? Do you have a larger version? I must get a copy of that!
It's over. The market is just a distraction.
You ask what is the best indicator of economic health ?
Number of bankers hanging from lamp posts.
Sunshine the best disinfectant?
Nah.
It's gravity.
Also, it has gone beyond ridiculous; we are spinning in circles here; no improvements; bad news coming day after day; and everyone is waiting for something catastrophic to happen in the next few months. Is it just me; or does anyone else have a feeling that we will witness historical ( and i mean unprecedented ) events in the next couple of months; 1 year tops.
I have that feeling...I keep singing "Way Down Upon the Black Swan River". Whether it will be big trouble in the Middle East or whatever, I have no clue. But something is coming.
might be that; but then; all bets are off; and if the EU feels threatened by Israel's actions; believe me; they will bomb the shit out of them; no matter the historical events. Self-protection is a dangerous thing; and can you imagine the rampant wave of antisemitism which would spread around the world, if in some case; Israel attacks first ( Iran as hell will not ). Can you imagine the gang rape Israel would get from Arab countries and Russia. I mean, the outcomes are numerous, and not one of them is pretty. OR it could be an attack on the US soil; i.e; mini nuke blowing up. OR rampant spread of H1N1 with a death rate of 25-50 %. OR all of the above.
Have you seen this?
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1251804532464&pagename=JPost%...
putbuyer; i think Putin LOL'd at Netanyahu; or told him that he can go fuck himself. Russians are pissed; and i mean pissed over two things; 1 ) American help to Georgia 2) " defense shield " in Czech Republic and Poland. Putin would rather go to war with the entire globe than help Israel or Netanyahu. Make no mistake Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine will get their weapons via Mother Russia. And normally, Israel's lap dog ( the USA ) will make sure Israel does not lack nukes and other armament necessary for attacking a nation WHICH POSSES NO THREAT TO ISRAEL AND A NATION WHICH HAS A FULL RIGHT TO DEVELOP ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES. Fucking Zionists and their bullshit religious demagogy. I'm sick and fucking tired of the belief that Israel should get a pass for everything it does, because some Austrian illiterate was insane enough to kill 4 million Jews. Give them some land where they can built casinos and call it quit. America wiped 10 million people in various wars since the 1950s and every nation which was ATTACKED by the US ended paying war reparations to the US ( ie. Vietnam, El Salvador, Panama, Iraq etc. ) ... Fuck it; if they want to behave like the motherfucking Nazis; its their full right to do so; but they can not expect for the world to remain quiet about their actions.
It wasn't just American help to Georgia, it was Israeli help that's really pissed off Russia.
google: israel georgia russia
I am Chumbawamba.
No threat to Israel?
Except for their repeated calls to wipe Israel off the map.
Have you never listened to what Iran says? You r pwnd!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/oct/27/israel.iran
A CONVERSATION WITH MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/22/AR200609...
Iran - again - threatens to wipe Israel off the map (2008):
http://www.jnewswire.com/article/2417
9/8/2009:
http://www.islamidavet.com/english/tag/wipe-israel-off-the-face-of-the-e...
Ahmadinejad wants to wipe Israel off the map:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9zcElqetqk
why don't you just cite me the Jerusalem Post; it would be easier for you one-sided mind in this debate. First of all; Ahmadinejad never said " wipe Israel off the map "; you can thank the moronic Farsi translators for that; what he said is; and i cite; "Emam goft een rezhim-e eshghalgar-e qods bayad az safheh-ye ruzegar mahv shavad." ; which, when translated CORRECTLY is: "Imam said this occupying regime in Jerusalem must vanish from the page of times."
Now, notice the difference between the garbage you were served, by the ever-loyal MSM propaganda machine, and what is the truth.
It is NOT the same thing to call for the replacement of a political party and/or regime, and calling for wiping Israel off the map. Try again, cause you FAIL. And the second thing is; who is butchering who; Israelis the Palestinians on a daily basis for almost 60 yrs; or Iranians the Jews who enjoy full protection and equal civil rights as Muslims. Now, I ask you, regardless of your religious background; who do you think is more peaceful; the butchering Israelis who kill women and children saying that they work for Hamas, or Iranians who provide all civil rights to all religious and ethnic minorities
cheeky, every got-damned post of yours I read, you get sexier. +1, CB.
Good job Cheeky! - see
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95029424
Download Audo and forward to 11:00
Well said, Cheeky!
It's so nice to not have to be the one to explain these things any more. People truly are waking up. Thanks, Cheeky! I don't care what they say about you, you're all right in my book.
I am Chumbawamba.
+10
Can you please keep your comments to financial related matters! If you want to bash Israel and act like a f***ing racist there are plenty of other web site and blogs for you to comment on.
Zero Hedge and TD, it is quite disappointing to have such comments posted on your blog as I have the most respect for your work.
Thank you
Explain to me how am i being racially offensive to anyone; since when is stating the truth an offence; since when is criticizing a government policy a racial misconduct; since when do people need to remain silent just because the truth is unbearable to the majority; since when do opposite views get threaten like racist just because they don't suite the spoon-fed view of others, since when do ad hominem arguments become the way of bashing the truth, since when do genocide and braking the conventions of war need to be restricted just to the Arab world, since when is Israel a taboo and a topic which one must not discuss if one does not want to be attacked by political zombies. The time to be politically correct is long gone, this is the world you live in, the world in which the ones who suffered cause suffer to the ones who do not deserve it; the world where you lose your life just because you were born on the wrong side of the fence. Get over PC bullshit and accept reality.
Why don't you follow your own advice (as you point to another reader) and stick to what this blog is about. If you want to discuss middle east politics you can post on Aljazeera where you can find many friends who will agree with your point of view.
This blog is a bastion of reasonable discussion on all topics. Social sciences, and indeed all sciences, are welcome here. Hysterics and intolerance of other viewpoints are not.
PS CB was probably upset with the other poster because of the injection of biblical prophecy into the discussion, an act which does not pass the litmus test for having reason. (duh)
Yeah, but Israel has been around for 60 Isreali years! That's like 16,000 Persian years. Iran has only existed for 5000 Persian years. You can't trust them. They might be suicidal.
If you only have 5000 years vested in a culture, them I'm sure there is strong sense of, "who cares?"
Then we can lecure them on concepts such as democracy because, you know, they probably only had it 14 or 15 times so far.
Israel can always drop Dorito's, reclining leather chairs, and digital cable TV on their heads and turn them into a bunch of fat, lazy stupid consumers like other countries I know.
Cheeky-
I remember you commenting on the recent Switzerland account issues that could take down the Swiss finance industry. It took 60+ years, and they are finally closing in on much of the blood money, gold, and diamonds that went into the Swiss banks. I must say I admire the resolve, tenacity, and karma of it all.
I agree that nothing should be taboo as long as we use logic and react without emotion to facts. It sounds as if you would support a palestinian state.
Taboo?: One of the reasons for taking out Sadam Hussein was that he was financially incentivizing families of suicide bombers by paying them after their Sbarro visits. Another reason for both Afghanistan and Iraq was vital oil interests. Iraq also had threatened to move from the US dollar for petro dollars. Once Iran is in the mix, all the critical pipelines in the region will be controlled.
Im advocating a Palestinian state on historical, geographical and ethnic grounds; but i also advocate for Israel. Both Palestinians and Israelis have full right to have their own sovereign entities which need not to be based upon religious convictions but historical and political geography of the area. It is simply unfathomable to me when i hear someone who advocates that Israel should not exist, or that Palestinians have no rights to have their own state. But i do not advocate for the current Israeli policy of building walls around Gaza and cutting off humanitarian lines, cutting off water supply and attack Palestinians using white phosphorus. I do not advocate extreme fractalization of Palestinian land by Israeli government and do not advocate for the Israel which is structured on Ben-Gurions type of Zionism. There are different types of Zionism, and most of them are understanding when it comes to Palestinians, but Ben-Gurions military-religious type is what is the dominant form. Also, there is some blame on the Palestinian leaders and their actions when it comes to suicide bombings and attacking civil targets. But that is terrorism, not warfare. War has a strict rule of conduct which should never be broken, a rule of conduct which Israel brakes daily.Also, Israels dominant position in the region when it comes to nuclear weapons is unsatisfying for the Arab dominated Middle East. And the problem also exist among the Jews themselves, simply because the Semitic Jews feel that their Arab culture is being made inferior to the one of European Jews, and most Iranian Jews do not want to relocate to Israel simply because they feel threatened that they will need to absorb the culture of European Jews and their descendants and leave their own habits, norms and behaviour if they wish to be fully accepted as Israeli citizens. The situation in the middle east is hugely complicated; but it is not one sided as many wish to portray. The real image of the situation in the middle east can not be seen on CNN, Fox, ABC, CBS etc, because of the general positive stance towards Israel and negative towards Palestinians and Arabs in generally. I am a pacifist and i do not condone the actions undertaken by Israel, nor the current paradigm of Israeli policy. Also i do not condone the guerrilla actions of Hamas, Hezbollah and Fatah, but if there exist no warfare equilibrium; those actions i would consider as necessary in preventing the total Israeli dominance over Palestinians.
Glad to see the tolerant and intellectual Cheeky is back... I couldn't believe when you "+ a trillioned" Chumbawaba's statement:
It should go without saying that I don't believe in this silly hocum, but if it'll mean the beriddance of that pimple on the ass of Earth, Israel, then I'll believe in God, and Santa Claus and the tooth fairy for good measure!
it was more in the context of standing with him in support of dealing with the war crimes, not with " lets wipe Israel off the map " bullshit.
Thanks for the clarification...
Screw that, I want Israel GONE. Those fuckers don't deserve a state.
It's either that or one secular state for all. Can't be too choosy here.
I am Chumbawamba.
Chumbawamba you want everyone gone but white Americans that have a lineage in this country for at least 100 years. Imho you are quite racist and you know it... don't make me go and pull up your 'n.gg.r' comments and paste them here. Who in Israel should go first... the small Israeli child taking his first steps, the Israeli child just got his first red bicycle...
And further more, imho, you are the pimple on the ass of ZH...
Hmm, let's see: zionist ethnic cleansing of the original Arab inhabitants of Palestine, and I am the racist? Fuck you, nigger.
I am Chumbawamba.
And a big FUCK YOU bullet coming back at you from the pretty white gal in Minnesota :-)
Eh, you're sort of a mixed bag on this topic. You don't really understand the problem. The problem is that there is no "good" form of zionism. It's all bad. Zionism is a good old fashioned land grab and slow-motion genocide in a neocolonialist hue. Very sporty for the season but it's quickly going out of style.
One state or no state.
I am Chumbawamba.
.
I don't pay any attention to pro or anti Israeli comments because the topic hold no interest to me. It is worth noting that Minnesota Nice is clearly a MAJOR RACIST. His brand of racism is against white people.
My second favorite racist on this site, "They steal from", is back this morning to join us... he/she recently suggested a user name for a fellow racist to be "I stomp on Nappy Heads". And for the record I am white... and German to boot. And by the way those eye holes in your white sheet belong in the front.
Everyone is a racist now. The word has lost meaning, it's just a catchall for "I don't agree with you".
JohnKing, you are obviously a racist; because you discriminate the other " black-white bag-headed " members of ZH with your 64-bit paper bag. RACIST !!!!
No, you are RACIST!!, you are judging me based on the color of my bag!
RACIST RACIST RACIST;
I ahe a dream, that all bags, black, white and mulitcolored will ....
( well you know the rest ) but stil RACIST !!!!!
No actually JohnKing... when I don't agree with you, I say I don't agree with you... and by the way I don't agree with you...
If you never speak out for others who may be less empowered to speak out for themselves you end up with Germany and World War II all over again... so I speak...
My life has been blessed... I was not born into poverty with very little chance that I could make something out of my life... I did not have parents who were overwhelmed or using drugs, paying little attention to my needs... I did not have to wonder if there were going to be 1 or 2 meals that day... I did not have Christmas after Christmas without a present... I was not called a n.gg.r, or another offensive term used to describe minorities, as I grew up... I have never been silently discriminated against... so I speak...
However, there are small minority children all over this world with the same hopes and dreams just as I had when I was growing up... and to just throw out this racist bullshit is unconscionable... so I speak...
MinnesotNice; you get the award for the best post in thi thread + a quadrillioncentilliongoogol
lol... thanks Cheeky...
you are welcome; but really, in all honesty; the best post i have read recently.
A lot of the minorities you speak of are involved in self-sabotage based on their own racist belief system. The door swings both ways. Hatred is a cruel master.
And the ones that aren't... the small black child that desperately wants to be accepted by others in a mostly white school and dreaming of the birthday parties he might be invited to if he wasn't black... the black teenager who is interviewing in a mostly white neighborhood with 10 other white applicants, dreaming of his first job...
How does this discriminatory rant help our society to be stronger and more cohesive...
It's generational, when the little one is slighted (as we all will be), does momma blame whitey? The little ones learn it, it is not an inherent trait. The media tried to float the notion that opposition to Obamacare was RACIST so I guess we teach a new generation how to be bitter and unproductive. Everyone needs to put it down, EVERYONE.
I think we will have to respectfully agree to disagree... but I do like your bag :-)
Thank you for that, being a colored bag in a sea of grey scales I need all the encouragement I can get! :)
Cheeky,
When your ass has sat and operated in a war zone based on TODAYS events 8 years ago...then you can say ANYTHING about a war. I have fought and LED soldiers in combat and do not tolerate cold pacifist PUSSIES who have never fought and put their asses on the line for something they believed in. You have no idea the horrible shit my soldiers and I saw overseas and yet you sit on your ass talking about stuff you have no fucking idea about. When you have actually been there...LIVED THERE and expeienced it...then you can fucking talk. Keep your racist mouth shut as you are a fucking idiot. Israel and the Palestinians will fight. When the Palestinians stop electing terrorists as fucking politicians...then they may actually be taken seriously. Until then...fuck em, they can die.
FUCK YOU; i have been trough a war, and a six year one for that matter; so you better fucking keep you fucking mouth shut you sadistic motherfucker before you speak. And the Palestinians have every goddamn right to elect anyone who can protect them. I know you must enjoy killing little " sand niggers ( as you would describe people of Arab ethnicity ) " for your supreme leader or whoever, but just because your stupid ass doesn't know any other goddamn thing to do in order to bring food on the table; does not mean that the entire world is your kind of stupid. I fucking hope you experience war; because the only thing you know now is killing the people who have done shit to you, or to your loved ones. Until further notice; go fuck yourself you little genocidal prick. And BTW, fuckers like you are the main reason no one likes Israel or the USA. I fucking hope you experience a war in which you have 40 yo gun vs a full armored tank and 30 soldiers. You're a big fucking pussy hiding behind you big ass gun thinking you are invincible. In war, my simple minded retarded friend, everyone has a bullet with their name on it. And i can assure you; somewhere there is one with you're name on it. And the wishes you share for the Palestinians i do not share for any one. I hope you fucking burn in hell; because the reason you " fight " is one, and one only; OIL; GREED; PROFIT.
Cheeky, What the hell is a "sand Nigger"? I have never heard that phrase NOR would I tolerate ANY soldier to EVER utter that phrase. We do NOT kill people for the fun of it...only in self defense. ALA: 911. I could care less the Nationaility, religion, or any other irrelevent factor in whom we attack. The only thing I want as a soldier is PEACE! If you have lived in a war for 6 years (Balkans I presume...) then you also want peace more so than I! It is people that have no friggin clue what war is like that send soldiers off to same. Drop the dumbass talk about Israel as it has NOTHING to do with ZH. I could care less where you come from, only that you remember that both the Israeli's AND the Palestinians are used as puppets on a much larger stage.
Cheeky, You an I do agree that we fight over Oil. However, oil IS a critical resource and Nation States WILL fight over it as it is critical to their economies and for strategic purposes. Oil will become even more of a flashpoint for many years to come and will cause even more wars than you or I could ever imagine.
i think it was a week ago this Friday, when some of us regulars here concluded the same thing; basically the conclusion was that; the whole Bush charade with WMDs and Iraq, and al-Qaeda and Afghanistan was probably the biggest military success of the US army since the victory in WWII; and that the full benefits will come to fruition in the next 20-30 yrs when the US will have easy access to abundant oil reserves, pipeline routes and shipping lines; while the rest of the world will go trough some tough times.
oh nvmd; its a phrase used by morons to describe the people of Arab ethnicity; or the people who look like Arabs. ok; i apologize then; yes; the Balkans; where i went voluntarily in 1990 and was there till the end of 95; so i know first hand what WAR is when you're fighting with a 40 yo guns, and Molotov cocktails against fucking tanks and whole divisions which are oversupplied. But, also fighting for peace is like fucking for virginity; an Orwellian paradox. Not a real thing; yes many of us were used in the past as pawns for the big players; but some; have learned something from that time. Also i would like to apologize for my previous post; as you can see for yourself; i have grossly overreacted. While the type of war i was in was a revolution, not agression, i can not say the same for the wars America has started and led in the past 50 yrs. My knowledge of history does not allow me to say that.
My reaction was based on a perception of you simply hating a country and their people. However, after I examined your posts, (though I may disagree) you did at least post links to strengthen your premises which I DO respect. And I also apologize for my flamer of a post against you. 40 y.o. old guns then you must have had a giant set of balls to go against tanks. I take it you were fighting the Serbians and that fucking idiot Slobodan Miloševi?. I have freinds that went over to protect the folks in Kosovo from their damn snipers. SF (Special Force) buddies of mine went over as Counter-snipers and took some of them idiot snipers out. That was a totally sad chapter in your neck of the world and I can see I was wrong in thinking you were an arm chair pacifist when you have seen as all soldiers do...and why soldiers who have been to war are the first ones to exhaust all options before sending soldiers over to fight. Common ground we appear to have...
Yeah man; the Milosevic regime and the whole goddamn Yugoslav National Army. We had not guns, except the ones which were our own; since one fucker signed a deal with Milosevic in 89 which took all the guns from the hand of Croatian Liberation Army and handed them over to the YNA. Also there was an embargo and basically only few guns were managed to be imported into the country. The boys in the Eastern Front took down 26 tanks in 2 days with Molotov cocktails and home built grenades. Kosovo came, what, 4 years after the war was over and the fucker ( Milosevic ) tried to do the same thing there; lucky enough for the Albanians that Bill Clinton was in a good mood ( Albania, send a card to Monica Lewinsky ) and bombed the shit out of them. When the war was over I poured the resources and knowledge i had in Swiss and started to invest in CRO.
Well I do understand where you come from now. CRO? To much game for me. I stick with basic equities and go from there. Markets opened nice and red...lets see if we can have a nice -200 day to destroy most of the gains for the week!
-Michael
Sort of; i was born in Swiss, my mother is German, my dad is Croatian, i was educated in Swiss and Germany, did a brief post-grad in the US; went back to Ger to get my Ph.D and then i started to work in the family company ( construction ). Soon after my dad died and the assets we had in CRO were not accessible at the time cause of the war; and i left my mother to run the business and i went to CRO and fought for the independence. Now i live mostly between Swiss ( winter,late fall, early spring ) and the rest of the year i spend in Cro and travelling.
Well when I am Europe early next year, I will be visiting Germany and Switzerland. I do enjoy skiing and perhaps I will take you to dinner...as I do believe I owe you a pint or two! :) -Michael
done deal Mikey
Would you two like a condom with that order?
I am Chumbawamba.
Chumba, you make me chuckle sometimes. I suspect a lot folks don't get your dry sense of humor....
-Michael
That was the single best posted conversation between two people on this blog... A+
If only all verbal battles were so easily resolved. Especially between countries...
-Michael
Hmm, I don't need to experience being ass raped to believe that engaging in it would be most unpleasant, do I?
I was in Moscow in 1993 when their White House was burning. It was my third visit in my failed attempt to open a clothing factory there. Yes I opened it, but we could not get raw materials soon after (fabric). I was 24 years old and lost 60K.
So why am I saying this? I understand the Russian people - and they are not so accommodating to Mr. Putin's agenda. After the Afgan war, they no longer want their children to pay a price for a fantasy utopia.
I can't claim to understand your logic. I may very well be wrong. Certainly, I love to read your comments. I am a Portuguese born catholic. I grew up as a liberal Israel hating guy. 2 Decades have passed and so many Israeli born citizens exist that - as any one who owes their dedication to their country sees that 'this is my home' - so maybe just blame the originalists.
Fast forward Iran
My heart went out to those protestors who gave their lives to protesting elections. I cried every time I saw Neda die. I wish I knew her.
My sympathies for Iranian people are quite strong. Why? I saw this video last night that threw be back so much. This travel video says it all about the Iranian people. You will notice that Mr. Steves and his production people decided to do something different other the usual videos. I promise you will be impressed. Joe
The thing is; most Israelis are in favor of a peaceful solution to this crisis; but the vast minority which set their policy on the grounds of military Zionism get fragmented percentages of vote in Israel, and soon after the election they form a coalition set upon those grounds. You can read more about that in the excellent book by John Rose, here is the link from which you can DL it http://www.scribd.com/doc/12748402/John-Rose-The-Myth-of-Zionism. As you will see, the problem rose with Ben-gurion and his structuralization of Israel upon military-religious Zionism. He faced many opponents within the Zionist movement who did not support that view, but they were silenced. I do not want to go further into this elaboration,you will see for yourself if you decide to read this book. I mean the question of Israel-Iran conflict is the most vital one in this day and age, simply because its ramifications will be felt globally on a much larger scale than any action done by central banks. Control,if they have any left, will the become impossible to achieve. So this is a topic of a financial matter, because when the conflict arises in its full strength it will effect all economies and how much you pay for food, electricity, gas, clothes, your taxes, government spending. EVERYTHING.
All they need to do is remember 9/11 Tomorrow. And thank you my fallen friends,. I will never forget you.
My prayers are with you tonight. Brother. I hear you. The newbies who say that this commentary should be limited to finance, don't understand the massive political ramifications of - political, geo-political or xyx-political stresses on the markets. All they need to do is remember 9/11 Tomorrow. And thank you my fallen friends,. I will never forget you. My prayers are with you tonight.
yes; i hear you; since its 3:50 am here, and that means we are well off into 9/11 here i wish to express my condolences to everyone who lost someone in the 9/11 attacks; a truly gruesome act perpetrated upon the innocent. Hopefully one day, the truth will be known and the guilty will be captured and punished. Also if someone knows an NYFD firefighter or is one i wish to express my deep admire for them, their actions, courage and lack of fear. Rest in peace all who are no longer here.
your sincerity is quite nice, I shed A few.
And let's also remember IR655...
Yes, thank you 3greenlights. I have read about that " incident " today and it totally slipped my mind when i needed to pay my respect to the victims of that monstrous act undertaken by the USA.
http://www.hulu.com/watch/94075/rick-steves-europe-rick-steves%E2%80%99-...
putbuyer,
...thanks for the link, good stuff.
Also I heard that the double long oil ETF DXO stopped trading. Probably because they know an attack is coming and the potential volatility is too risky to continue trading it.
With regards to anecdotal business conditions, my small manufacturing business (engineeered components) serves many industries including semiconductor, pharmaceutical, injection molding etc. Business revenue is down from the 2007 peak but has been relatively stable. HOWEVER, if it weren't for a few new customers who have given us some big orders, it would be off substantially. One semiconductor equipment customer used to give us about $120K/yr in business and hasn't ordered a damn thing for more than a year now - and I know our products are still specified in their design. Just take a look at the following link:
http://www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo/Book-to-Bill/index.htm
Peak billings were around $2B/mo. back in 2006-2007, now they are about 80% off. If you look at the figures from back in 2000, it's more than a 90% drop. Now that's a depression if there ever was one. Of course, this industry gets zero stimulus, bailouts etc. Stupid them for spending their cash on R&D instead of bribing politicians. Look at the last months data though - 60% growth month over month!!!!!!!!!! Green shoots! Greeen shoots!!
So....that would beget a fairly important question. Where to? Where does one go in this world that would offer the best odds for economic and outright literal survival?
The most remote major city with a population in excess of one million is Auckland in New Zealand.
I'm thinking Perth.
good looks. Little wonder that their currency is doing well, as well as their land values being much more resilient than other parts of the world.
http://www.reinz.org.nz/shadomx/apps/fms/fmsdownload.cfm?file_uuid=15D28...
A lot of fertile land and relatively less corruption does a country good. A pretty groovy place if you ask me.
The northernmost city with a population of more than a million is St. Petersburg, Russia...if global warming is your worry. As it should be. A lot of people are calling global warming a sham because of this year's relatively cold temperatures. However, this year's temperature is warmer than the average temperature of the 20th century, despite being the coldst year of the decade. It is cold this year beause of the seasonal effets of la nina (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o-Southern_Oscillation ). We are also at the solar minimum, whih may have something to do with it as well.
how can human induced global warming be a singular cause of temperature rise on Earth, when almost exact temperature rise is recorded on Europa http://www.yenra.com/europa-jupiter-moon/ and why did Mars polar caps melt in the past; since there was no induced artificial warming. Global warming is a hoax in the context that it is a singular event restricted solely to planet Earth. It is not; it is happening trough out out solar system and it is directly linked to the Suns behaviour; not the increase in CO2 caused by industrialization. Go to www.nasa.gov and read the available material.
Yep, all the climate change protagonists prove (rather ironically) is that they utterly fail to grasp how small and almost meaningless man is to the earth and the solar system.
Yea GW is not solely a human effect, but what really ticks me off is when people say that it doesnt exist. Solar cycles may be a big factor and I think this next cycle may be a doozy. Some people have been calling for cycle 24 to be a relatively tame cycle because of the long absence of sunspots but that hypothesis has been disproven IMO with the appearance of that big sunspot about a month ago. We'll see but the prolonged minimum is not a good sign after the relatively active cycles of recent past. seems like a build up of potential energy.
Yes, you are correct; this is a cycle; nothing special about it; or unusual; the warmin is cyclical as will the cooling be. In the 16th and 17th century the cycle was the one of cooling; that was proved by botanists who examined the European pine trees old enough to be examined, and they have concluded that the average temperature at that time was 4 degrees C below the average temperature today. Also, in the Perm period, the temperature of the Earth was six degrees C above what it is today; and the atmosphere was fully formed by then and completely life forms were inhabiting the Earth. There is no proof that can pass the test of scientific rigour so that the hypothesis can be regarded as true, while in the other case, there is an abundance of proof which pass the scientific rigour, and which, without any doubt, show that artificial development plays no role in increasing the global temperature. You also need to have in mind the force of physical processes that take place in the Earths core, and that those processes also play a significant role in the total global temperature. So the causes are both external ( the Sun,etc ) and internal ( the processes within the Earths core ). And in conclusion Al Gore can suck a pole and GFH.
In a parallel universe that decoupled from ours in late 2000, they are seeing the effects of the blowup of the carbon credit credit bubble.
too bad Al Gore never read wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#Impacts_of_the_solar_cycle
Cheeky- This is the issue that illuminates leaders and followers, thinkers and automatons. It is an infuriating issue to the rational thinkers, the geo-political implications are that this is the beginning of global governance, wealth distribution, a UN carbon tax, and the threat meant to unite all peoples around the globe (like the global war on terror).
We are all against pollution, perhaps that should be the focus instead of the "promulgated" threat of self inflicted global destruction (Kissinger quote) that is clearly the result of sunspot activity as you well know. Why was Greenland called Greenland?
If there is man made global warming, it could be as a result of HAARP if you have researched its effect on the ionosphere. There are patents on it as well as a UN resolution related to using it as a weather weapon (70's) so it is indeed real.
I don't know if acting like prey will be a good idea, being on the run and in strange environs can work against you very quickly. I'm thinking it's better to take the mindset of survivor, prepare for predators and hold your ground/fight back. You know more about where you are at now, use it to your advantage. Let the interlopers take the strange land handicap.
IDK John, mobility is something I value. Having a static location would make the fight completely about firepower vs firepower and it would rule out stealth and finesse. They'll always have more firepower but they'll never be as smart. Plus a strange land handicap wouldnt really exist in my neighborhood if interlopers were to intrude.
I see your point, but IMO settling down to a familiar place makes it that much easier for the other side. Its sort of a tactics vs strategy argument. Defense of your area is a good tactical move but it restrics stategic decisions.
Too many variables to anticipate but what's funny (not) is that this type of thinking/planning is on the table for many.
Green shoots!
couldn't agree more Tumble,
It's basic knowledge of anyone who studies warfare that no fort/city/strategic position can be held forever without reinforcements -- no matter how well fortified. This is something George Washington had to learn the hard way while still fighting for the British against the French.
A strategy which employs mobility would be a lot more effective ... especially against a larger and better equipped enemy. Which is one reason why guerrilla warfare works as well as it does.
Guerrillas stay at home, their knowledge and exploitation of local resources and networks is their strength. Running around the globe leaves you a target to all manner of predators from petty criminals to corrupt local officials, etc.
Russia will attack Israel. Then things get interesting. See:
http://www.bible-knowledge.com/Russia-Will-Attack-Israel.html
It should go without saying that I don't believe in this silly hocum, but if it'll mean the beriddance of that pimple on the ass of Earth, Israel, then I'll believe in God, and Santa Claus and the tooth fairy for good measure!
I am Chumbawamba.
actually; scratch that
:-)
The right for any tribe of people to exist should not be questioned, and I fully support the concept of "never again". I hope you are not confusing the right to exist with a right to dominate - they are separate and distinct.
Israel has the strongest intelligence operations in the world and is the closest ally the US has in the middle east. I could see a pimple being Iran.
No one has a "right to exist". You either do or you don't. Just ask all the Palestinians that Israel has slaughtered throughout its existence. Oops, you can't.
I want genocide of NO ONE. I want zionists to stop slaughtering Palestinians. If they want to have a state inclusive of all people who call that place home then fine. If not, I side with those that are being slaughtered or imprisoned on the very land that was stolen from them, and I wish for the destruction of their oppressor. This is a universal philosophy.
I am Chumbawamba.
Now; you put on the table a serious question; why hasn't Kurdistan, after the US " liberated " Iraq been pushed towards sovereignty; and why has not that voice appeared in front of the UN. The characteristics of the Kurds history are similar to those of a Jewish history ( minus the fact that most Israeli Jews poses no Jewish genetics, but are merely descendants of converted European Jews ). When Nelson Rockefeller brought the question of Jewish sovereignty in front of FDR; FDR was vehemently opposed to giving Israel a sovereign status, and around the same time FDR held a meeting with the first Saudi king Saud ibn Saud where he promised that the US will not vote in favor of Israels independence. Naturally Rockefeller was pissed as hell, while the Saudis were pleased. FDR made that commitment to Saud in return for Arabian oil for WWII purposes. Also, iat the time when FDR was president the Rockefeller knew that the vote in favor of Israels sovereignty would never pass the general assembly at the UN simply because most South American countries were not in favor of Israel becoming a sovereign state. But after Roosevelt died, and Truman became president Rockefeller promised the heads of S. American states all the loans they could wish for. So naturally those states voted in favor of Israel. The main representative of KSA at the general assembly at the time was Faisal ibn-Saud; one of al-Sauds sons who would later become king of KSA and enact an embargo on KSA oil exports and thus caused the, now, infamous 70s depression, and subsequent massive inflation. But allow me to return to my original topic. If European Jews could get a state solely based on the atrocities of the WWII; then why didn't the same rule applied to the Roma population. Why was that question never answered. I will tell you why; simply because Israel had the US in its hands with the information about the high ranked people ( ie. Allan Dulles, Prescott Bush, Von Braun ) and blackmailed the US with the list of the high ranking Nazi officers who were brought into US scientific, intelligence and political community shortly after WWII finished. Dulles brought many high ranking Nazi officers to the US, despite Truman's orders that only those Germans who were recorded as opposition to the Nazis could be brought to the US. Dulles put fort operation Paperclip to secure dominance of the US in post-war world. And since Chase Bank provided major funds to Schacht in the era of rampant re-armament he had to do something to secure the passage of the vote. But again, if the principles of granting sovereignty to one group of ethnic minority was a paradigm of fairness, why not give the Kurds their own state since there is no more Saddam; and why didn't the British give the Roma a part in the Northern India for them to finally have their state. Upon the answers to those questions we can only speculate; but one thing is fore sure. Israeli intelligence community did hell of a job in securing the information needed for blackmailing the US for many many many years; and other ethnic minorities had no resources, knowledge and connections to do the same.
Here, Cheeky, it's simple:
Kurds = brown-skinned = niggers: NO HOMELAND
Jews (Ashkenzai) = white-skinned Europeans = white: HOMELAND!
Jews (Sephardic) = brown-skinned Arab decent = niggers: SECOND CLASS STATUS IN JEWISH HOMELAND
Palestinians (Arabs) = brown-skinned = niggers: NO HOMELAND
See the pattern? You gotta have the right skin in the game to get yourself a homeland.
I am Chumbawamba.
king solomon i understand stated to negotiate everything. we deserve nothing, we only get what we negotiate. perhaps one group negotiated better than the other?
You fail to mention to many things concerning Palestinians and their refugee status in the world. Why were they forced out of Jordan??, why when after they were promised they could re-populate their previous homes/land after the war(they were going to drive the Zionist into the sea) were they not compensated by the Arabs after they had miserably failed?? Instead they were setup in fucking "projects" miles away with the promise that their brothers would soon liberate them.
good point Anon 66005. i was wondering the same thing when i read the literature on the middle east conflict; and there exist no mention or even a hint to why the situation was treated so coldly by the other Arab nations. I would look for the answer in the religious background also in a historical one. Thank you for bringing that question here; it had totally slipped my mind, and my fellow posters as well. I will try to find something about that issue and post it there.
The fool has said in his heart, "There is no God."
wrong site buddy, infowars or prisonplanet or maybe the site of seventh day adventists will suit your goal. But not here. junked.
The fool says in his heart, "there is no God."
Thank God for the junk button.
Cheeky, my feeling/observation is there is a lot of pressure building in various kettles. In the financial system nothing got fixed, markets look totally out of whack, gold is rattling the 1000$ cage, governments pretend a terror threat that – at least in the claimed way – does not exist, war in Afghanistan, where during the last 2500 years every aggressor got defeated, peak oil has likely happened already, see the oildrum.com for arguments; politics seems to ignore the problems all over…
Gunther; ma man; the only way out of this, IMHO, is if the positive equivalent of a black swan happens in either a) energy b) transportation c ) production. We are ( as a planet i mean ) so deep in doo doo, that there is no way in hell that a mainstream solution is enough to pull us out; while the positive black swans did happen throughout history and managed to prolong the inevitable downfall of the West; i really don't see one happening in the immediate future; and on the other hand, there is a flock of black swans approaching the horizon; singing some pretty wild tunes; that do not sound nice. The only thing that has left; and which keeps blurring the reality for most of the people is the insane up-swing in the markets. After that's gone; and it is not a question of if, but when; i fear the worst is going to happen. What is the worst that could happen, i don't know, but it will happen.You can only hope that a positive black swan will happen, but IMHO, the chances are so close to zero; that I'm ready to dismiss them as fantasies.
Boy, Cheeky, up to now I thought of myself as being pessimistic, now in comparison to you I sound optimistic. I think the technical and economical side of the problem could be solved. The whole thing could look like a wartime economy without war or a standard similar to the former communist bloc. Small and energy-efficient cars or motorcycles, localized production/consumption, no holiday air-travel, something that would look like GDR living standards 2.0. That is comparatively poor, but enough to survive. How that would play out politically I am less optimistic. But, a thought that makes me a little bit optimistic about not using nukes today is the fact that during WW2 poison gas was not used even if both sides had it.
You feel it too? Something IS imminent.
Logic would lead one to lean towards your way of thinking, unfortunately logic went out the door last fall.
logic; there is no logic here; simply an equation; number of balls in the air/ number of hands to catch them. simple as that; one will fell; i don't know which one; but the one that does will make a cripple out of the people who try to juggle the rest of them.
CB, I was having an enlightening discussion with my Dad the other day describing the situation you speak of as a nasty Whack-A-Mole game. Unfortunately, the degrees of freedom are non-linear, and ever increasing subset and with confounding factors. No factor and/or discriminate analysis is going to help us narrow down the "playaz" here.
And that is why people's safety net is to have their eye's gloss over about these topics.
Numbers, shmumbers. Fed is panic stricken.
Follow electricity, rail and trucker shipping. Most retail stores you could shoot a cannon through with no effect.
I don't see any commercials except debt restructure, gold buys, and subsistence goods and services.
No one with money wants credit or uses it except as short term revolving, those without just can't get it anymore.
We're in a pickle. A huge segment of the society has no savings, negative to no net worth, no insurance, no job and little family safety nets.
I'm more than a little concerned. Desperation is just months away for millions.
Yes, we will witness something historical, it will be an outright run on the dollar by international and domestic users alike. What has started as a trickle will turn into a flood. I think it will happen early next year, and I think the catalyst will be the Fed announcing a continuation of their MBS purchases, which will cause our foreign creditors to throw in the towel once and for all, and turn their USD into hard good en masse. This will cascade into domestic bank runs, as no one will want to hold USD in bank accounts when they are depreciating rapidly, and will withdraw them to buy gold, cars, appliances, whatever.
I am not even short the stock market, but every day it goes up it makes me more and more nervous, as it indicates to me our dollar is getting weaker and weaker, and closer and closer to the breaking point. And when it breaks, it is going to break hard and turn into a panic.
The Coming Consequences of Banking Fraud
"The Double Dip Recession, or the ‘W’ shaped recovery that a minority of economists, such as Joseph Stiglitz, is now stating as a strong possible outcome of this current rally, should not be discussed in the realm of economics but rather in the more apropos realm of financial fraud. The fact that the upleg of the ‘W’ shaped recovery that is occurring now will inevitably crumble in spectacular fashion will not be a result of any free market principle, but rather the direct consequence of a fraudulent scheme executed by an elite global financial oligarchy, otherwise known as Central Banks.
”... Most people today can not even fathom how bad the situation will become primarily because of all the secrecy that the banksters have engaged in – in US Treasury markets, the gold markets, the US dollar markets, agriculture commodities, stock markets, and financial markets – in hiding reality from the people.
”... Remember that it is only the timing of this decline that I am uncertain of, but I am very certain that a significant decline of a shocking nature is coming... “J. S. Kim
http://seekingalpha.com/article/160619-the-coming-consequences-of-bankin...
the story about the emporer with no clothes is so appropriate. every time someone screams..." he's naked" another more clever story is hatched to refute such a "dumb" claim. you must be of high intelligence to understand what is really happening here. the american population tend to have common sense and some street smarts, which make them smart when it comes to this part of the business cycle.
light is the best disinfectant.
dow to triple digits is just not allowed to happen, i swear the G20 will push the reset button, go "one world currency, and create a new stock market."
cap and trade may be the new one hosted by GE. no idea as i am not a good forecaster.
not really sure as to where to park liquidity though to reduce risk exposure to US currency risk and US govt polity risk. any thoughts about the YEN. they have already travelled the trail we are on.
will stock prices couple with the dollar?
from Uber Bear Tim Knight
Heading to 1080? (...yes)http://slopeofhope.com/2009/09/heading-to-1080.html
While it is obvious that our economy is in a slow motion collapse right now. Is it likely to drop off a cliff to a much lower place or just keep going lower slowly?
I would say that this current headline is quite telling:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125261734701000955.html?mod=rss_whats_ne...
Here's the truthiness on that company (and every other "dollar" store)--their"staples" and other crap most often cost more than Walmart. I guess it's all in the name because most of it isn't a buck. I go back and forth between NY and Toronto so I know both sides of the border. Here in Toronto we have Dollarama--now that's a store that lives up to it's bloody name . Yep--everything is $1 including capers and great Indian condiments, and lots of items are 2 or 3/1). The selection is huge and changes rapidly. Every one of the "dollar" stores in the states is raking in the bucks because they overcharge--THUS their margins go up. I check them out every once in a while just to see what they are selling and for how much. It's ridiculous. You need an old fashioned plug in corded phone? $10. How about shaving cream? $3. How stupid is the average American consumer I ask? Stupid enough to buy houses they couldn't afford and shop at Dollar General when they could get a better deal elsewhere.
my wife drags me to a couple of different dollar stores in NY and they all charge max 1.00 (sometimes 2 fer a buck). Because I'm stuck while she shops, I have gone up and down the aisles to look at the crap and have yet to find one item more than 1.00. I don't know the names of the different stores but I think one is called Dollar Store.
EDIT...one thing I did notice was that all of the household cleaners and that type of merch were an off label but the graphics and fonts were exactly like name brands (woolite, spic n span, some of the detergents, dishwashing liquids, etc). they were all a buck.
I don't live in NYC anymore--I live upstate. There are about 12 different "Dollar" chains in the states now. Dollar General is one that charges any incarnation of a dollar it wants.
There are numerous Dollar chains in the states now...and thank you for correcting me that at least one or two exist that charge a dollar. But Dollar General is not one of them.
Check out the Dollar General brands link:
http://www.dollargeneral.com/OurMerchandise/Pages/NationalBrands.aspx
They aren't selling look-a-likes.