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Beware of the Potential Irish Ponzi Scheme!
I have updated the latest Ireland research (released yesterday) and
urge all to review the additions, as well as our overview of Ireland’s
fiscal difficulties:
Irish Strategy NoteWe fear Ireland is on the verge of considering a massive Ponzi
Scheme, if which avoided, will possibly result in a fiscal
deficit approaching 20%, dwarfing the beleaguered Greece
by several leagues.
Non-subscribers should reference Financial
Contagion vs. Economic Contagion: Does the Market Underestimate the
Effects of the Latter?, for the underlying premise of this in depth
article described the upcoming situations with prescience.
Sovereign
Risk Alpha: The Banks Are Bigger Than Many of the Sovereigns
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There is no have to in this world - the taxpayer may pay externalities regardless because of malinvestment in the credit creation institutions but the state has no further obligations other then to preserve its self and its citizens.
You talk of capitalism as if it were a religion - this is about power baby and the central bankers are playing the Irish mob like the peasants they are.
But if you want to believe there are these King Solomon's out there that will give impartial judgement about who should pay this and who should pay that, go right ahead and indulge me.
I on the other hand see traitors and naives on the inside and vultures on the outside ready to pick the carcass of this sorry gombeen nation
I am in no way trying to defend Irish Banks in any form. What they did to the Irish people was scandalous and ridiculous and in no way should it be condoned. What I take issue with is the fact that you have made an assumption that the Irish State should automatically assume the debts of publicly traded companies. company. It has to be remembered that whoever lent the money to the Irish Banks did so to make money. They clearly made a false assumption that they where well run and didn't do the necessary due diligence and subsequently they should loose some (I repeat some) of their money. The Irish state has also culpability in the fact that there was a clear failing in the Irish regulators where incompetent. The tax payer has to take the hit for this. Taking all of this into consideration, I don't see how you can differentiate between Ireland, other country's in Europe and indeed the U.S.A. There is one problem common to all problem and that is the Banks. Debt's inccurred by sovereign states and those incurred by publicly traded companies are two very different things. I personally am all in favour of realistic solutions and take umbrage to scare mongering tactics. I grew up in Northern Ireland at the peak of the Troubles. I do know how bad thingfs can get when civil society falls apart. Yes, we are not in good shape in Ireland but a lot of work is being done to ensure that our creditors get a good proportion of their money back.
I am confused Irish Silver, first you state
"What I take issue with is the fact that you have made an assumption that the Irish State should automatically assume the debts of publicly traded companies."
Then you state
"The tax payer has to take the hit for this"
"but a lot of work is being done to ensure that our creditors get a good proportion of their money back"
Surely the sovereign has enough on its plate to clean up the casualties of this monstrous malinvestment and if it is also required to give private bank creditors a haircut rather then a decapitation then it will have to implement a triage operation where many innocent victims will be sacrificed to give these guys their 30 pieces of silver.
Reggie,
Thank God for your thorough and cheery posts. Thanks for making deposits instead of withdrawals.
The only ponzi scheme I see here is Reggie's attempts to sucker people into paying for his research with misleading headlines.. Sure we have our problems in Ireland caused in a great part by an unregulated securitisation market. Both Bank of Ireland and AIB have extensive loan books in the U.K market. If this fact is not taken into consideration then quite frankly the conclusions being drawn here are nothing more than junk.
You need all of the facts on table before you can come too a considred opinion. Bottom line here is that idiotic bankers somewhere else lent money to idiot bankers in Ireland. Its same story in virtually every developed country in the world.
They either lent it when they shouldn't have or borrowed it when they shouldn't have. The only solution too this problem is both sides tak a fair share of the loss and we all move on.
"You need all of the facts on table before you can come too a considred opinion."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959?slide=21
Even includes a pretty picture of your beautiful country, just to heighten the irony. What other "facts on the table" are really necessary here?
Since you are going to insult and offend, why don't you explain why the conclusions drawn here are junk? Tell us how the defict will not reach 17%? What are the off-balance sheet items that are being considered?
I have no problem with anyone disagreeing with me, but to disparage without any data items or facts is really low, eh? I actually don't think you should be disparaging at all, but that's just my opinion.
Reggie Irishsilver is displaying a common affliction amongst Irish people where they mistake the health of the domestic banks with the health of the nation.
Another decade of anal penetration and he may just realise the error of his ways.
"The only solution too this problem is both sides tak a fair share of the loss"
in general agreement with your entire point, i fear the folks who would define 'fair'...
I'd say a fair loss is for banks with 100-to-1 leverage to take a 99% haircut. That would do the trick.
that was the point i agreed with - basically "time to take your lumps... banksters"
in deference to reggie, the personal attack on your work did not impress me. i mentally skipped the crap as i've learned to do at ZH.
there is some signal in that noise. somewhere.
as ever, tnx reggie.
Before responding to the virtually ubiquitous ZH poster "HarryWanger", please be aware of just whom and what you are dealing with in this person:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/AAPL-apple-gm-psycho...
His real name is James Kostohryz, and he is here posing as a troll in dishonesty and in disregard for the fundamental purposes of this forum. He is NOT posting here in good faith, but is purposely antagonizing those with independent, anti-establishment views and opinions for his own selfish and cynical purposes, as part of a self-styled "study" on "the psychology of permabears".
He believes that anyone who opposes the current widespread fraud, corruption and rampant lies within our societies and governments are "utopian" and unrealistic, "pollyannish dreamers".
And for those ZeroHedgers who are advocates of sound money backed by gold, this bankster shill is already out there with one of the most disingenuous, dishonest, historically ignorant pieces of pro-establishment propaganda on the topic, expounding on how such monetary and financial integrity is "impossible", and merely "the rants of an ideological fringe":
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-Gold-Standard-Solid-as-minyanville-285...
Please do NOT respond to this reprehensible troll, here or anywhere else on ZeroHedge. He is NOT here in good faith, and should be shunned!
Reprehensible? Nah. Boring and harmless is more like it. But a troll is a troll and should never be fed -- on this we agree.
Might he be related to MAKO?
Maybe he is Bates/Johnny Bravo, too.
Reggie,
I am having problems with the links. One thing I have discussed on my own blog is how the Irish public pension funds invested to prop up their banks. Instead of diversifying away from ireland, they shoved more money to prop up the frigging banks...simply crazy! That's the real Irish Pension Ponzi scheme.
The links are working, but my server is being strained so there is an occasional error. I will probably have to upgrade (again) this weekend.
Having to upgrade your server? That's a good problem to have :)
No Leo not crazy, stupid.
I say again if we default on all bank external debt we will preserve our sovereign obligations - If these creditors are not decapitated then we will for the first time default on our government paper.
This madness must end soon.
Reggie, I really enjoy and benefit from your posting here. However, I often miss them as they (and the other contributors) are not included in the ZH rss feed. Is there anyway we can get a dual-feed system? One feed for the main ZH page and another for the contributors?
I have no control over ZH (through your idea is a good one), but my site's feed is the place to get my stuff, complete and uncut: http://boombustblog.com/reggie-middleton/feed/
Reggie:
I have mad appreciation for your input and I am a subscriber but I have not been able to access your site for several days now my browser just keeps giving me "fatal error" messages.
Is it your server or is it the firewall here at the Kriegsmarine?
KrtvtKpt laughing swordfish
DKM Trading Division
I apologize, I updated the server software and... well you know how that tech stuff goes. At the same time I had a spike in traffic. I will be updating the hardware in a day or two. Email the support link at the top of the site with your specific error to make sure that you don' t have an undiscovered bug.
Everybody wants something for nothing.
Who can resist a good ponzi scheme?
Looks like another default coming.
Get in line.
Reggie, please just post the damn document you want us to see. Don't send us searching through your entire damn archive for the stuff. Thanks. I'm not going to pay $85 a month to go thru a lengthy search.
I'za tries ta work harda for ya for free, masta!
I hope one day you will believe in your own mind of your true worth and decide that racism is always a bad thing, even as a well-worn joke. Let us all get out of the Mr. Fetchit mindset, shall we?
Especially when it comes out of the mouth of a black guy.
Relax Orly,
Your comments are usually spot on, but we are suffering under an affirmative action president just now. Oddly enough, humor allows us to show respect when it is due, and withhold it, when it is not.
But humor defuses the kind of seriousness you espouse.
muahahah!! awesome. Keep up the good work man.
Link works fine for me (not a subscriber).