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Biderman Discusses Declining Income Collections, Validity Of Economic Data, And The Broader Market
Whetever few voices of sanity remain, as every "expert" merely touts their book into the biggest bear market rally in history, need prominence. TrimTabs' Charles Biderman is among them. In this most recent Bloomberg interview, Biderman takes on what amounts to inaccurate data releases by the BLS and BEA, and tries to make some sense out of them. Biderman's punchline: "Gravity usually works at some point." The only question is when.
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DH - WOW. Another proponent of the eventual effects of gravity and decay rates. Again, track tax receipts for a real & real time read on the economy.... The conspiracy camp grows.
+1
the BLS will soon find itself in a SNL skit. I'm still simply amazed that there is no consideration given to people who had unemployment insurance, lost it due to expiration, and nothing is accounted for on that end. perhaps an interesting anecdote relating to this matter as well as initial claims is this: starting approx. 2 weeks ago, the New York unemployment website informed claimants whose unemp. insurance was expiring to continue to make claims in advance of the anticipated extension of UI benefits by the Feds (we all know it will pass very soon, they are just working out details now).
then again, maybe Newton could have been wrong......
Isn't that the U6 number.. which is presently at 17%
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm
The number usually reported is U3 at 9.8%
U6 still only counts those that have actively looked in the past four weeks. Once you have dropped from the rolls and don't get the call on the household survey you have disappeared into the out of the workforce number.
If a share of stock is sold in a forest, and nobody is around to buy it, does it still generate a fill?
So long as someone gets paid for providing liquidity, yes.
If it is _sold_ there is a buyer - yes.
If it is offered in a forest it generates a fill only on certain exchanges.
You are standing at the end of a road before a small brick building. Around you is a forest. A small stream flows out of the building and down into a dark pool...
And a little later:
You are standing in an open field west of a white house, with a boarded front door. There is a small mailbox here.
I'd venture that the tax receits and income changes are more of a longer-term read. People and governments can still borrow & spend themselves into more debt in the near-term to make the economy look well. It just isn't sustainable in the longer term.
tax receipts are real time....apparently you do
not fill out quarterly or monthly sales tax
reports....anyone doing so - and other alert folks -
know that sales tax information is near real time...
whether sales tax receipts relate to income is
debatable but the relationship between falling
income and falling income tax receipts is not....
+1
Well, of course the information from tax receipts are real time. If you were "alert" (smart alec), you would have noticed that my point was that they are not an indicator of how the economy will do in real-time or near term.
au contraire clousseau, the sales tax and income
tax receipts are real time indicators of economic
performance and my implicit point was that sales
and income tax receipts are good harbingers of
current and near future economic economic activity...
You don't understand what he's saying. Simply put, yes, tax receipts represent "real-time" data as to incomes. However, it doesn't represent that people may be using savings or debt to maintain their existence. If you lose your job today, you'll still go to the grocery store as long as you have credit or savings, thus end demand would not represent the "real-time" income data.
No way does the tax data account for the stimulus so really it is a lagging indicator just like any other indicator. So many people claim to have leading or real-time indicator when in fact all they have is nonsense.
I don't dispute that income tax receipts SHOULD be an important tell on how well the economy is REALLY doing - but in our case right now I'm saying it isn't.
I don't like it either, but of course the government can prop up the economy by borrowing & spending, and so can individuals in the short term... regardless of the trajectory of income tax receipts. Why do you think we have the growing debt problem we have - borrowing to spend rather than earning to spend! And like Denninger points out in bold caps - that is our government's policy for economic recovery. Forget your anachronistic harbingers, my friend - this is the new economy... until it isn't.
Paper bag head is right: Tax reciepts are THE real-time gauge of economic acitivity. Period.
Income tax receipts, or sales tax receipts? I was referring to income.
Binderman, Jim Rogers, and Frank Veneroso (among others) understand how economies and markets work long term. You can game the world economy with printing presses, derivatives, SDR's, HFT, etc. and that works for a while, until it doesn't.
It seems Meredith Whitney's comments right when the SPY was on its downtrend line from the record high came as a surprise to the gang... which, in my humble opinion, today has been more pathetic than ever on its manipulation... At 1240 they started killing the USD with no success moving the stock markets higher.
11:40 eastern is when equities move..the patent pending pomo trade.
i miss the patent pending obama short, though i suspect it will resurrect itself some day.
I hope they interview him after tomorrow's retail sales.
"Gravity usually works at some point"... so let's get on with it already... I like the fact he is still moderately short in this market.
Agreed MnNice. It takes real conviction to follow that particular course at this time. A leader.
I hope have enough dry powder left when it does finally tank. Gravity seems to be taking a long, long time to work.
Peter Schiff vs. Biderman March 2006
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIFGfgKHrwU
Biderman was way off the mark back in 2006. I guess he's expanded his horizon since then.
Why won't any attractive blondes ever ask me if I'm "covering my shorts"?
I just browsed Biderman's website and looked at the factors which make up his liquidity theory. Where would the layman such as myself be able to acquire the information he is using, such as the flow of mutual funds, corporate stock repurchases, insider buying/selling, etc?