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Big Miss In Initial Claims, Print 429,000 On Expectations Of 415,000, Downward June NFP Revisions Coming

Tyler Durden's picture


The soft patch may need to order a lifelong supply of Viagra soon, as the economic news continues going from bad to worse: Initial Claims just printed at 429,000 on expectations of 415,000. Prior was naturally revised higher, the n+1 such revision, from 414K to 420K. Continuing claims also missed the consensus of 3670K coming at 3697K, although in yet another BLS spin job, the number will be presented as a drop, since the previous number of 3675K was revised to, wait for it, 3698K, a one week sequential drop of 1K in continuing claims. The week ended June 4 saw the first spike in recipients of extended claims, with both EUCs and Extended Benefits rising by 68K. Bottom line, this is the 11th consecutive week of 400K+ Initial Claims, which likely means that the June NFP will be revised substantially lower. The state by state analysis showed that not a single state had a decline of more than 1000 claims, while 13 state had a greater than 1000 increase in claims, with the biggest hit being Pennsyvlania and California, at 6,019 and 3,884, due to layoffs in the service, manufacturing and transportation industries.


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Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:36 | 1394166 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Big Miss Bitchez

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:00 | 1394232 Popo
Popo's picture

b.b.b..but we're in a 'recovery'.      

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 12:05 | 1395160 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Here Popo... Have some more "Green Shoots" Lime Kool-Aid...

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:35 | 1394340 fuu
fuu's picture
99 weeks ago today was  07/30/2009
Thu, 06/23/2011 - 10:06 | 1394520 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

And that's a good point. The people laid off in the first few months after the crash are the baby boomers of the unemployment - an enormous group of people that are coming to the end of their 99 weeks. How many of them have replaced their previous income with a comparable job? The government statistics don't tell us that. The 99-week phenomenon is a big reason why so-called economic growth has been so disappointing to our leaders over the past few months.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:41 | 1394168 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Big layoffs at BAC; is this bankster the first to be thrown under the bus?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:42 | 1394184 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

Under the bus.....then back the bus up and run it over again.



Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:58 | 1394221 doesmybuttlookf...
doesmybuttlookfatinthis's picture

My son was in the April unemployment. My sister in law is in the May report. No way am I going to let them out do me. I'm in the June.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:57 | 1394228 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture


Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:36 | 1394348 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

I argued with my wife last night.  She called me paranoid for suggesting things are bad and will get worse.  No matter what I told her, she kept saying "It's not going to happen."  Sadly, she's a sheep.  I'm sorry to hear about your situation.  The only reason my wife is so clueless is because she can afford to be.  I'm still employed after all.  It's never a problem until it is you, right?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:45 | 1394387 WallStreetClass...'s picture

...and why would you discuss economics with a woman?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 12:12 | 1395181 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Because on CNBC there are D-cup Anchor-ettes "discussing" economics, along with the male bimbos...

And Amerikans believes what is seen on TeeVee...

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 10:14 | 1394552 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I have a similar situation. Everyone time I voice anxiety about my long-term job security, my wife dismisses it because I "could easily find another job". She thinks it's 1999 and companies like Microsoft, Boeing, Amazon, etc. would get into a bidding war for my services. I've given up telling her how ridiculous that is. She also thinks I spend way too much time on "that blog" (ZH).

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 10:23 | 1394602 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Seems like your wife respects you and looks up to you.  You won the lottery on that front!  You should try to turn her on to ZH, though....

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 12:35 | 1395312 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

i hear the same thing from family members. there's never an explanation about why it won't happen just that it won't.

i think it's called the denial phase.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:41 | 1394169 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Unusually unusual

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:49 | 1394195 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

temporarily transient

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 10:01 | 1394486 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

properly phucked

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 12:52 | 1395381 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Unexpectedly unusually unusual.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:38 | 1394170 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

Add Bernanke to the jobless claimants soon.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:38 | 1394171 digalert
digalert's picture

Ahem, excuse me while I whip this out...

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 12:10 | 1395188 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Is that what Weiner said in the unemployment line to file his initial claim????

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:40 | 1394172 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

There is still a multi-billion $ POMO injection on vapor volume.

There will be a mysterious bounce / rally sometime today.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:42 | 1394182 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

It will be used as a selling opportunity.

Nice bull trap.  Longs blowtorched.  Robo puking up blood.  Did I forget anything?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:47 | 1394197 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I'm going to watch the REITs sell off at the bell and then get yanked upwards with terminal velocity at 9:45 to positive territory and grind higher all day.

But, that's just me.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:19 | 1394296 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I share your frustration on the REIT issue, brother Boiler.  However, remember that we need two things in order to enact Ben Bernanke's next miracle QE stick save:  a stronger dollar, and a deflationary wave.  

Find a single REIT that is sporting an absurd current year P/E, one that has recently been upgraded by a dumb ass banker, and one that has also recently gone ex dividend.  Sell it.  The algos will do the work from there.

Everything that rises must converge.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:43 | 1394173 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture


Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:41 | 1394175 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The Bernank is stumped.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:44 | 1394176 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Laugh now, but you clowns have been on Double Secret Probation since the beginning of the semester

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:46 | 1394181 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Fat, drunk, and white bearded is no way to go thru life, son.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:48 | 1394203 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

He's not that fat.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:43 | 1394396 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Apparently not that drunk either....

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 12:15 | 1395194 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

His lip quivers like a little girl with a skinned knee...

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 12:56 | 1395404 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

He just can't forget being water boarded by the owners of this country the last time he went off message. Every conscious moment is spent parsing his words to make sure he doesn't get dunked again.

He wears a Depends Adult Diaper every time he speaks in public as he wets and soils himself on a regular basis. When he opens his mouth shit comes out of both ends.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:45 | 1394177 DavidJ
DavidJ's picture

Another recession is coming.  Position accordingly.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:44 | 1394188 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Crash Position: The position you want your dead body to be in when found.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:07 | 1394241 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Another recession? On top of the depression we've been in since, oh, 2007-2008?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:30 | 1394322 DavidJ
DavidJ's picture

good point.   I'm using the official declared recession information (which is problematic (at best)).

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:35 | 1394359 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I understand. In my experience, the "official" information seems to always be late and for the most part, way too optimistic (wrong, in other words).

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:33 | 1394352 fuu
fuu's picture

Started in 2001.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:35 | 1394363 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Recession? That's funny.  I'm preparing for far worse.  All may call me paranoid; I do not care.  Position accordingly indeed (arms, ammunition, food, water, etc.)

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:45 | 1394178 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Smells like a flash crash.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:49 | 1394179 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

all we need is more McDonalds

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:36 | 1394369 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture


Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:42 | 1394180 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Scrambling for the last pieces of physical silver just got cheaper - thanks to the paper silver price going down 2% at $35.48/oz

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:42 | 1394183 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

That soft patch looks cancerous.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 12:58 | 1395413 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Beneath the soft patch is nothing but rot. It makes it difficult to cross.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:47 | 1394185 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Manipulated numbers as a lead in to QE3++++. Just need the markets to sell off to complete the plan. We'll all be unemployed millionairs by the end of the year.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:48 | 1394191 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I did not know we were out of the first recession. At least not in my state. Another piece of the puzzle. Will gold stay down, not for long.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:46 | 1394196 Spitzers Black Socks
Spitzers Black Socks's picture

Obviously transitory, likely due to snow or a spring break somewhere.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 13:00 | 1395417 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Tsunami in a snow storm with a late Easter surprise. Its the catch of the day, the excuse du jour.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:47 | 1394199 somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

if something spreads to the horizon in every direction can it really be called a "patch"?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:53 | 1394200 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Life time supply ? Some of the fellas i work with say you keep the viagra for the mistress not the wife.. that is if your on the civil servant  ration of 4 pills a month. They say save those for hitting your little honey's back door for that  high school sound effect.. not me though I disagree.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:48 | 1394204 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

B A D - no spin needed. 

Spare a thought for those who have bills to meet and children to feed, spare a thought for how frustrating and empty it feels not to be needed in your field of expertise. What has QE brought a working man, Mr Bernanke, please look them in the eye and honestly say what it has brought.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:01 | 1394235 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Thanks for this - it's way too easy to look at this as a statistical issue rather than as a human one.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:51 | 1394426 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Right.  I've always found it revealing how anything outside of Wall Street is referred to as the "real economy".    Must be a reason for that view.   It's the small scrap thrown to the cold and hungry standing far outside the circle of the campfire.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:52 | 1394212 Cdad
Cdad's picture

What a great "Summer of Recovery."  Thank the lord and amen for the encouragement of the financial services industry, and their explanations of how "valuations on equities are historically cheap," and double amen for the true blessing of today's "buying opportunity."  Everyone knows how valuable "kicking the can down the road" is, as said value is so clearly indicated by bankers' "channel checks" into a robust "global growth" story. 

Never mind millions of guys sitting around without work.  Never mind how inflation is depleting any nominal buying power left in the economy.  Never mind that loans are impossible to get [unless you are a preferred bank].  Never mind the effects of bankers, but rather simply invest your dwindling dollars in dumb ass cliche's, parroted by all of them in perfect unity, as they again and again tempt ANYONE AT ALL to put money into their Pachinko machine....these morons who supposedly are "the cream of the crop"...who for some reason are not at all familiar with the concept of PEAK EARNINGS [as they pertain to the profitability of firing people].

Tens of thousands of pink slips in the financial services group....please.  Let us set about the work of addressing one of the true problems [although of course there are many] in the form of massively reducing the head count in the least productive sector of our economy.  

Cue J. Dimon whining.




Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:14 | 1394273 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Take heart, sheeple.  The BlowHorn has called all clear because we are "off of our lows."  There you go.  Recovery.

Hitting.  The.  Mute.  Button.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 08:54 | 1394222 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

There's something happening here....What it is isn't exactly clear.

Hopium Time...

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:56 | 1394464 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Oh, it's clear.  No more money from the nether regions.   It's Wall Street having a tantrum, kicking their little puerile feet about not being given sweets from the Fed.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 10:22 | 1394596 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Don't worry. Obama will give an uplifting weekly address from a wind turbine factory in Allentown, PA where he will use the word "folks" a lot. That'll get the animal spirits going.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:01 | 1394229 gaugamela
gaugamela's picture

Looks like we need proper stimulous but instead we'll have austerity leaving the economy on life support so the Republicans can win back the White House.

Oh right, business confidence depends on the government getting its fiscal house in order.

Where's the 10 year yield again?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:36 | 1394371 fuu
fuu's picture

psst - they are all on the same team; just not your team.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 10:24 | 1394604 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Any stimulus would be paid for in debt, and the net addition to GDP from new debt has gone negative. So, any new stimulus would cause the economy to contract.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 10:50 | 1394771 gaugamela
gaugamela's picture

Have you ever heard of the Samuelson cross? Have you ever taken Econ 101?

An increase in desired spending will normally translate into a rise in income (GDP).

Since the private sector (households included) are too preoccupied with debt reduction, only the government is left to pick up the slack (assuming exports stay same).

Conversely, shrinking government expenditures can cause GDP to shrink thereby reducing government receipts and increasing the government deficit.

Counterintuitive, I know, but I'm sure you will get there if you practice.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 15:23 | 1396053 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Hah, let me guess, you took Econ 101 from one of those Princeton professors. Look at Denniger's recent posts for an excellent description of where debt-based economics has gotten us. Increasing government debt = increasing prosperity? You've just passed the entrance exam to work at the Fed.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:06 | 1394233 DanieliusV
DanieliusV's picture

Well, they need so "sell" the QE3 somehow, so everything they are going to do now is worsen all forecasts they have made and it is going to continue. The economic indicators are going to worsen. There probably stock market crash to be in place so they can say: 'Here you see! We definately need QE3'. 

Usually QE are announced on 2 days meetings, so I guess it will be somewhere mid autumn when we'll hear some great news! 


Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:05 | 1394236 DanieliusV
DanieliusV's picture

-- sorry double post --


Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:23 | 1394240 gaugamela
gaugamela's picture

I wish Friedman was still alive to tell all you monetarists how completely wrong headed you are when we are in a liquidity trap.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:03 | 1394242 dbTX
dbTX's picture

Another summer of recovery

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:06 | 1394252 Sutton
Sutton's picture

The American public(thanks White libs) elected in 2008  the most leftwing government in our history(following a mad imperial neo-con experiment).

Nobody is hiring nobody until the mischief of Ocare  and Barney Fag is cleared up.


Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:12 | 1394257 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Is it time for another 1m or so ounces of registered silver to leave the CRIMEX ?

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:15 | 1394276 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture


Everything will be fine. Detonation countdown is on schedule.

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 09:27 | 1394305 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

This 41% of 7.28MN oz belgian central bank gold that had been lent out, if the entity that received it sold it at the $275/oz bottom their liability will have grown from $800MN back in 1997 to $3.7BN today.

Our should I say 'their liability which is soon to become some taxpayer's liability'.


Thu, 06/23/2011 - 10:08 | 1394507 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

There will never be a economic crisis until it is mentioned on Facebook amonsgt the sheep and on The Jersey Shore...then the fucking idiots of this world will finally get it!

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 12:02 | 1395146 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"Prior was naturally revised higher, the n+1 such revision..."

"in yet another BLS spin job, the number will be presented as a drop, since the previous number of 3675K was revised to, wait for it, 3698K,"

Obama Bin Lyin' Loves the "Lie By Revision"
It is Barry Soetoro's trademark... And the One-Term-Carter's presidential legacy...

Thu, 06/23/2011 - 17:38 | 1396652 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

oooh, that smell.

the smell of death surrounds you.

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