Big Miss In Initial Claims, Print 429,000 On Expectations Of 415,000, Downward June NFP Revisions Coming

Tyler Durden's picture

The soft patch may need to order a lifelong supply of Viagra soon, as the economic news continues going from bad to worse: Initial Claims just printed at 429,000 on expectations of 415,000. Prior was naturally revised higher, the n+1 such revision, from 414K to 420K. Continuing claims also missed the consensus of 3670K coming at 3697K, although in yet another BLS spin job, the number will be presented as a drop, since the previous number of 3675K was revised to, wait for it, 3698K, a one week sequential drop of 1K in continuing claims. The week ended June 4 saw the first spike in recipients of extended claims, with both EUCs and Extended Benefits rising by 68K. Bottom line, this is the 11th consecutive week of 400K+ Initial Claims, which likely means that the June NFP will be revised substantially lower. The state by state analysis showed that not a single state had a decline of more than 1000 claims, while 13 state had a greater than 1000 increase in claims, with the biggest hit being Pennsyvlania and California, at 6,019 and 3,884, due to layoffs in the service, manufacturing and transportation industries.

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Popo's picture

b.b.b..but we're in a 'recovery'.      

Problem Is's picture

Here Popo... Have some more "Green Shoots" Lime Kool-Aid...

fuu's picture
99 weeks ago today was  07/30/2009
ElvisDog's picture

And that's a good point. The people laid off in the first few months after the crash are the baby boomers of the unemployment - an enormous group of people that are coming to the end of their 99 weeks. How many of them have replaced their previous income with a comparable job? The government statistics don't tell us that. The 99-week phenomenon is a big reason why so-called economic growth has been so disappointing to our leaders over the past few months.

apberusdisvet's picture

Big layoffs at BAC; is this bankster the first to be thrown under the bus?

curbyourrisk's picture

Under the bus.....then back the bus up and run it over again.



doesmybuttlookfatinthis's picture

My son was in the April unemployment. My sister in law is in the May report. No way am I going to let them out do me. I'm in the June.

Silver Dreamer's picture

I argued with my wife last night.  She called me paranoid for suggesting things are bad and will get worse.  No matter what I told her, she kept saying "It's not going to happen."  Sadly, she's a sheep.  I'm sorry to hear about your situation.  The only reason my wife is so clueless is because she can afford to be.  I'm still employed after all.  It's never a problem until it is you, right?'s picture

...and why would you discuss economics with a woman?

Problem Is's picture

Because on CNBC there are D-cup Anchor-ettes "discussing" economics, along with the male bimbos...

And Amerikans believes what is seen on TeeVee...

ElvisDog's picture

I have a similar situation. Everyone time I voice anxiety about my long-term job security, my wife dismisses it because I "could easily find another job". She thinks it's 1999 and companies like Microsoft, Boeing, Amazon, etc. would get into a bidding war for my services. I've given up telling her how ridiculous that is. She also thinks I spend way too much time on "that blog" (ZH).

SoNH80's picture

Seems like your wife respects you and looks up to you.  You won the lottery on that front!  You should try to turn her on to ZH, though....

glenlloyd's picture

i hear the same thing from family members. there's never an explanation about why it won't happen just that it won't.

i think it's called the denial phase.

slow_roast's picture

Add Bernanke to the jobless claimants soon.

digalert's picture

Ahem, excuse me while I whip this out...

Problem Is's picture

Is that what Weiner said in the unemployment line to file his initial claim????

Boilermaker's picture

There is still a multi-billion $ POMO injection on vapor volume.

There will be a mysterious bounce / rally sometime today.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

It will be used as a selling opportunity.

Nice bull trap.  Longs blowtorched.  Robo puking up blood.  Did I forget anything?

Boilermaker's picture

I'm going to watch the REITs sell off at the bell and then get yanked upwards with terminal velocity at 9:45 to positive territory and grind higher all day.

But, that's just me.

Cdad's picture

I share your frustration on the REIT issue, brother Boiler.  However, remember that we need two things in order to enact Ben Bernanke's next miracle QE stick save:  a stronger dollar, and a deflationary wave.  

Find a single REIT that is sporting an absurd current year P/E, one that has recently been upgraded by a dumb ass banker, and one that has also recently gone ex dividend.  Sell it.  The algos will do the work from there.

Everything that rises must converge.

SheepDog-One's picture

The Bernank is stumped.

Josh Randall's picture

Laugh now, but you clowns have been on Double Secret Probation since the beginning of the semester

SheepDog-One's picture

Fat, drunk, and white bearded is no way to go thru life, son.

RockyRacoon's picture

Apparently not that drunk either....

Problem Is's picture

His lip quivers like a little girl with a skinned knee...

TheMerryPrankster's picture

He just can't forget being water boarded by the owners of this country the last time he went off message. Every conscious moment is spent parsing his words to make sure he doesn't get dunked again.

He wears a Depends Adult Diaper every time he speaks in public as he wets and soils himself on a regular basis. When he opens his mouth shit comes out of both ends.

DavidJ's picture

Another recession is coming.  Position accordingly.

Boilermaker's picture

Crash Position: The position you want your dead body to be in when found.

WonderDawg's picture

Another recession? On top of the depression we've been in since, oh, 2007-2008?

DavidJ's picture

good point.   I'm using the official declared recession information (which is problematic (at best)).

WonderDawg's picture

I understand. In my experience, the "official" information seems to always be late and for the most part, way too optimistic (wrong, in other words).

Silver Dreamer's picture

Recession? That's funny.  I'm preparing for far worse.  All may call me paranoid; I do not care.  Position accordingly indeed (arms, ammunition, food, water, etc.)

qussl3's picture

Smells like a flash crash.

BKbroiler's picture

all we need is more McDonalds

PaperBear's picture

Scrambling for the last pieces of physical silver just got cheaper - thanks to the paper silver price going down 2% at $35.48/oz

Silverhog's picture

That soft patch looks cancerous.

TheMerryPrankster's picture

Beneath the soft patch is nothing but rot. It makes it difficult to cross.

sudzee's picture

Manipulated numbers as a lead in to QE3++++. Just need the markets to sell off to complete the plan. We'll all be unemployed millionairs by the end of the year.

monopoly's picture

I did not know we were out of the first recession. At least not in my state. Another piece of the puzzle. Will gold stay down, not for long.

Spitzers Black Socks's picture

Obviously transitory, likely due to snow or a spring break somewhere.