Big Miss In Richmond Fed, Prints At -2, On Expectations Of 5, As Consumer Confidence Plunges To 48.5 On Consensus Of 52.4
And risk off. 7 out of 8 Richmond Fed indicators declined, with just Vendor Lead-Time remaining flat at 0. Number of Employees plunged from 12 to -3. And w/r/t the now almost certainly sub 50 print, Shipments, Volume and Backlog all plunged by 10 or more points. In a word, total diffusion index massacre. As for consumer confidence: somehow the record September surge in stocks did nothing to make people forget juw how broken the US economy is, and that they do not enjoy being lied to about recessions being over. The Conference Board printed at 48.5, compared to 53.2 revised in July, on expectations of 52.4.
From the Richmond Fed:
Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region pulled back in
September after expanding during the previous seven months, according to
the Richmond Fed's latest survey. The index of overall activity was
pushed lower as shipments and employment edged into negative territory.
Other indicators also suggested softer activity. District contacts
reported that the volume of new orders flattened, order backlogs turned
negative, and delivery times held steady. Furthermore, manufacturers
reported growth in capacity utilization flat lined, while inventories
grew at a slightly quicker pace.
Despite the decline in activity, manufacturers were more optimistic
about their future prospects in September. Survey contacts anticipated
that their shipments, new orders, backlog of orders, capacity
utilization, and the average workweek would grow more rapidly in the
Survey measures of current prices revealed that both raw materials
and finished goods prices grew at a more measured pace in September.
Respondents indicated that during the next six months they expected
somewhat faster growth in both raw materials and finished goods prices
from what they had anticipated last month.
In September, the seasonally adjusted composite index of
manufacturing activity — our broadest measure of manufacturing — turned
negative, losing thirteen points to −2 from August's reading of 11.
Among the index's components, shipments fell fifteen points to −4, new
orders lost ten points to finish at 0, and the jobs index declined
fifteen points to −3.
Other indicators also suggested weaker activity. The backlogs of
orders measure turned negative losing eleven points to −11, and the
index for capacity utilization flattened declining fourteen points to 0.
The delivery times index held steady at 8, while our gauges for
inventories were somewhat higher in September. The finished goods
inventory index inched up four points to 15, and the raw materials
inventory index advanced four points to finish at 13.
Labor market activity also weakened in September. The
manufacturing employment index registered a −3 versus August's reading
of 12, and the average workweek measure lost fourteen points to 0. In
addition, wage growth posted a five-point loss to 8.
In the September survey, contacts were more bullish about
their business prospects during the next six months. The index of
expected shipments skyrocketed thirty-one points to 38, and the new
orders index climbed twenty-six points to 42. In addition, the capacity
utilization index jumped twenty-three points to 33, and the backlogs
indicator advanced twenty-one points to 20. The vendor lead time index
turned positive, gaining seven points to 6, while planned capital
expenditures held steady at 8.
District manufacturers' intentions to expand hiring were also
generally more bullish than a month ago. The expected manufacturing
employment index was virtually unchanged at 10, and the average workweek
indicator soared nineteen points to 20. Furthermore, the expected wages
index posted a sixteen-point gain to 24.
District manufacturers reported that raw materials prices
increased at an average annual rate of 1.31 percent — a pullback from
August's reading of 2.19 percent. Finished goods prices rose at a 1.06
percent pace, which was somewhat below August's reading of 1.45.
Looking ahead, respondents expected that the prices they pay will
advance at a 2.46 percent pace, slightly above the previous month's
expectation of 2.21 percent. Additionally, contacts looked for finished
goods prices to increase at a 1.17 percent annual rate, a bit above
last month's expectation of 0.91 percent.