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Big Miss In Richmond Fed, Prints At -2, On Expectations Of 5, As Consumer Confidence Plunges To 48.5 On Consensus Of 52.4
And risk off. 7 out of 8 Richmond Fed indicators declined, with just Vendor Lead-Time remaining flat at 0. Number of Employees plunged from 12 to -3. And w/r/t the now almost certainly sub 50 print, Shipments, Volume and Backlog all plunged by 10 or more points. In a word, total diffusion index massacre. As for consumer confidence: somehow the record September surge in stocks did nothing to make people forget juw how broken the US economy is, and that they do not enjoy being lied to about recessions being over. The Conference Board printed at 48.5, compared to 53.2 revised in July, on expectations of 52.4.
From the Richmond Fed:
Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region pulled back in
September after expanding during the previous seven months, according to
the Richmond Fed's latest survey. The index of overall activity was
pushed lower as shipments and employment edged into negative territory.
Other indicators also suggested softer activity. District contacts
reported that the volume of new orders flattened, order backlogs turned
negative, and delivery times held steady. Furthermore, manufacturers
reported growth in capacity utilization flat lined, while inventories
grew at a slightly quicker pace.
Despite the decline in activity, manufacturers were more optimistic
about their future prospects in September. Survey contacts anticipated
that their shipments, new orders, backlog of orders, capacity
utilization, and the average workweek would grow more rapidly in the
months ahead.
Survey measures of current prices revealed that both raw materials
and finished goods prices grew at a more measured pace in September.
Respondents indicated that during the next six months they expected
somewhat faster growth in both raw materials and finished goods prices
from what they had anticipated last month.
Current Activity
In September, the seasonally adjusted composite index of
manufacturing activity — our broadest measure of manufacturing — turned
negative, losing thirteen points to −2 from August's reading of 11.
Among the index's components, shipments fell fifteen points to −4, new
orders lost ten points to finish at 0, and the jobs index declined
fifteen points to −3.
Other indicators also suggested weaker activity. The backlogs of
orders measure turned negative losing eleven points to −11, and the
index for capacity utilization flattened declining fourteen points to 0.
The delivery times index held steady at 8, while our gauges for
inventories were somewhat higher in September. The finished goods
inventory index inched up four points to 15, and the raw materials
inventory index advanced four points to finish at 13.
Employment
Labor market activity also weakened in September. The
manufacturing employment index registered a −3 versus August's reading
of 12, and the average workweek measure lost fourteen points to 0. In
addition, wage growth posted a five-point loss to 8.
Expectations
In the September survey, contacts were more bullish about
their business prospects during the next six months. The index of
expected shipments skyrocketed thirty-one points to 38, and the new
orders index climbed twenty-six points to 42. In addition, the capacity
utilization index jumped twenty-three points to 33, and the backlogs
indicator advanced twenty-one points to 20. The vendor lead time index
turned positive, gaining seven points to 6, while planned capital
expenditures held steady at 8.
District manufacturers' intentions to expand hiring were also
generally more bullish than a month ago. The expected manufacturing
employment index was virtually unchanged at 10, and the average workweek
indicator soared nineteen points to 20. Furthermore, the expected wages
index posted a sixteen-point gain to 24.
Prices
District manufacturers reported that raw materials prices
increased at an average annual rate of 1.31 percent — a pullback from
August's reading of 2.19 percent. Finished goods prices rose at a 1.06
percent pace, which was somewhat below August's reading of 1.45.
Looking ahead, respondents expected that the prices they pay will
advance at a 2.46 percent pace, slightly above the previous month's
expectation of 2.21 percent. Additionally, contacts looked for finished
goods prices to increase at a 1.17 percent annual rate, a bit above
last month's expectation of 0.91 percent.
c
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Reality Bitches!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reality
Someone trashin Cog Diss? Shame on them.
Hmmm, who do you think? Bravo, Robo, Leo?
LOL yea probably the 3 perpetrators.
I'm hurt. Deeply hurt. On the other hand, I suppose it is out of character for me. I go back and forth between anger at the machine and anger at our own impotence.
I was standing in a checkout line yesterday after work and the two people in front of me were talking about Democrats and Republicans and who would "fix" the problem. I couldn't help myself. I said any moron who thinks either of the two parties are interested in fixing the corruption that's paying for the politicians re-elections and retirements deserves what they get.
They looked at me like I had called both of their mothers whores. Which if you think about it I just did. They're playing their roles perfectly, fighting between themselves while Rome is looted and burned.
Hey, CD, the truth hurts. Bwaaa! Personally, I find truth to be incerdibly refreshing.
Some bitchez are taking you real serious today . . . you're up to 6 junks! Reality is a dangerous thing.
So much for the credibility of junking.
it's hard cd, but if one leaves out the "moron" there is a slightly better chance of getting through the learned ignorance. but it is so hard to hold one's tongue, given the magnificently elaborated examples of the bush and obama administrations back to back.
I think every time someone mentions politics in conversation, I'll just treat it like it is a reality show. "NO, he did not! Wooo, he's going off the show after that one! Hahah I bet the ratings are tanking.."
That's all it has become, hasn't it.
I agree with a previous responder that the moron label lessens the lesson.
I often use the "Democrats and Republicans are two sides of the same worthless coin" gambit, which in itself lets me know which way the wind is headed (as far as the listener's mind "goes" (often gone!)).
But, I do like the old quote (Nora Ephron?) that "The difference between a Democrat and a Republican is the same as between syphilis and gonorrhea", so I leave that one out when youngsters are about, as then parents have to delve into a side-conversation...
Then again, I get so pissed-off listening to morons having the conversations you refer to, it's hard to employ rationality and not just vent their faces flat from the outrage.
CD spelled "bitches" correctly. Does that deserve a junk?
might have been a tad too rude for a sensitive day like today....
I disagree. I'm presently back in the US, on a short business trip, for the first time in almost two years. One of the first things that struck me upon my return was just how pervasive rudeness has become. It's everywhere here now.
In fact, perhaps counterintuitively, maybe rudeness is what's needed to jolt the citizenry out of its collective semi-comatose state. After all, what else is working right now?
Ah, enjoyed that first re-encounter with the TSA, eh? ;-)
Damn, I can't stand that org nor its employees, who knowingly can treat anyone anyway they wish, as their employability (sic) has no correlation to the pursuit of the person in their immediacy.
(sorry, had to get that out there...)
Through a glass darkly... but then face to face.
Ahh ooooo ga! Ah ooooo ga! Plunge Protection Team to your battle stations!
ROFL!
Liquidity engines all ahead full!
Load of Negative Data concurrent with Fed not commiting to massive 1 time QE... seems like an engineered collapse.
Bingo. Smushing the Dollar is all the rage.
Sounds like the beginning of a new GDP drop. If Bernie doesn't do QE in less than 3 months, the FED is fucked.
The fed is fucked anyway. It's just a matter of time.
Yes, the take away impression with which people should begin to familiarize themselves is that the Fed era is coming to an end. Nothing, not even Rome, lasts forever. 97 years is an eternity given the degree of changes that have occurred during the same time in technology, society, culture, etc.
But here's the thing: the public-private crime syndicate that has benefited immensely from this arrangement also knows the Fed ere is coming to a close. What, ya think they're stupid or something?
So what's next? It's hard for me to imagine a situation where the US doesn't become embroiled in some kind of internecine civil turmoil. (I mean, consider just for a moment what oil will cost without the $USD reserve status backing our overseas military empire. Not to mention 50m+ hungry zombies cut-off from gov't cheese.) One has to believe the power-elite have game played this scenario as well. So what's their survival plan? Get out?
Actually, Oil will be devalued against Gold (or Gold backed paper). Say, 1000bl/Oz. Really.
All numbers today reflect this: economic activity down, government spending up. They'd all be down without the sugar. Gold!
The Chicago Fed's Nat'l Activity Index of 85 parameters has freshly tanked in a manner which leads one to question that if back to school sales are punk, what chance does the Christmas shopping season have, or any other sector of the economy?
see report summary, etc:
http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/cfnai/index.cfm
Well, well. It turns out that lining up in Walmart at midnight waiting for the food stamps cards to be activated so you can buy something for your kids to eat does not fill consumers with an irrepressible confidence in the future. Who'd have thought?
Being surrounded by farming, which always seems to be in recession, it's hard to notice what the overall Economy is doing here in Minnesota. The MSM seems to be too busy shooting up Hopium to be of any help!
Richmond Fed was horrible:
In September, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity — our broadest measure of manufacturing — turned negative, losing thirteen points to −2 from August's reading of 11. Among the index's components, shipments fell fifteen points to −4, new orders lost ten points to finish at 0, and the jobs index declined fifteen points to −3.
Other indicators also suggested weaker activity. The backlogs of orders measure turned negative losing eleven points to −11, and the index for capacity utilization flattened declining fourteen points to 0.
Labor market activity also weakened in September. The manufacturing employment index registered a −3 versus August's reading of 12, and the average workweek measure lost fourteen points to 0. In addition, wage growth posted a five-point loss to 8.
Nothing can overcome the pump.
If the pump falters, just crush the dollar. There are no more sacred cows, sheep or PIGGS.
USDCHF now below 0.98
Tax rebates, bitchez!
Time for a last party . . .
I love this site! :)
The Archbishop of Wales has accused Israel of implementing an apartheid system
What? To hear some talk (on this website at least), Israel is busy with the "Final Solution" V2.0. :>(
Drop a $20, until no one thinks it's worth picking up , nothing will change.
Point well taken. We need shock therapy. On the other hand, I have never seen ordinary people so angry. They don't know quite what they are angry about yet, but it's a start.
DOW down, AAPL down, Dollar down, Gold down, Oil down. What time does TIPS POMO ramp kick in?
some bearded fat fuck is telling us that even though the recession ended, the consumers are telling us that it still feels like a recession
bwahahahahahahahaha!!!
it feels like sex, it's just there's no one to share the experience with
LMAO! Outstanding. TYLER we'd love a thumbs up feature can you hook us up?
no media anywhere that now questions the "summer of recovery?"
cnbc openly campaigning for obama and haines constantly attacking republicans
Confidense numbers? Since when have they mattered when they're below expectations?
Oh look, the DJIA has reversed its course.
The USD/Yen hasn't, however. Now down below 84. The BOJ must be pleased with themselves.
Nasty little gap down in S&P 500 when this news hit.
In other words....if economic activity levels are declining and government spending is up, then the only "growth" being generated by the economy is pure Fed-manufactureed inflation. Very bullish for gold!
I could think of several reasons not to be buying PMs right now, but that didn't stop me.
Wow! Not ones to deliver a soft blow eh, them PTB?
Since all stats are "engineered", there was no reason for this raft of bad news all at once.
I'd say this is a pretty huge signal. Huge.
I hear a snicker in some mahogany studded boardroom...
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Cage match : 1st Card, POMO vs. Richmond Fed. 2nd Card, POMO vs. Consumer Confidence. And for today's title fight, POMO vs. Allied Irish ...
Tyler, we'd love a 'thumbs up' feature!
When is today's POMO activity? Not sure it can help hide the truth today.
Again, absolutely horrible numbers and the DOW is not even down 50 points. If they slightly exceeded, you would have seen the DOW up 150 by now. Wait for the POMO to complete to really ramp up stocks.
Dow currently down just 22. On Richmond numbers that now guarantee a disasterous ISM number. And after the best September rally in 70 years, on vapors.
TD you are way, way, way ahead of the pack.
Fox Business News just spoke about POMO
They said its a great story followed by the chant.
POMO, POMO, POMO
LOL
This shit is going to explode soon
I saw that too. Right before Charles used the phrase Pomo Arigato. I LOLd.
Wow theyre all SUCH shameless whores!
...and by 'big miss' you mean 'bullish for stocks'...errrr...isn't that the way EVERYTHING is filtered thru CNBC?
bla bla bla = buy stocks
Is that the "Time" Bell I hear ringing in the background?
Hark... In the distance I see the QE2 coming into sight.
Why do they bother?
Only took PPT 25 min to ramp back to 9:59 level.
Reality is a threat to National Security.
Close.... very close.
Ohnoes. POMO dollars being sucked into the black hole!
Pomo has kicked it, Dow only down in the teens
WTF Flash boost in gold. 1301
And there goes silver, too: 21.52
Look at gold over 1300!
what happened to the cotton kid? where is he now
prolly buying some seed for the new crop
Irish bond yields hit a new record high above 6.7 per cent today and the cost of insuring against default on Government debt surged to a record as speculation continued that the cost of bailing out Anglo Irish Bank could be far higher
By 2.14pm, the yields on 10-year Irish Government bonds rose to 6.706 per cent, almost 14 points higher than yesterday, with the spread between the German bund and Irish bonds widening to 445.4 basis points. Earlier, yields had hit a high of 6.786 per cent.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0928/breaking11.html
Don't worry. Soon the government publishes new, revised, really-final-this-time Anglo loss projections. That's sure to end the uncertainty.
Does Mars need bonds? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA....
http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2010/09/hey-do-you-think-we-can-...
Vetical (bitchez)
Must be a whopper of a POMO today. Push the market way up AND jack both the Euro and cable.
Either these jokers plan on owning everything with counterfeit money, or they are going to have to let reality take hold. Which will it be crime syndicate? You think you can steal it all with fraud notes and we won't take offence? Think again!
and dow now paring losses... wtf... confidence numbers and richmond fed numbers are a non-event...
or the market is utterly irrelevant to reality.
1302.60 with rocket. waa?
Unreal how bonds are breaking out to new highs with the S & P still over 1,100.
Crazy times.
Capitalism is dead...didn't you guys get the memo...buy gold!
You just don't understand value, Dudes. Virginia has no end of trailer parks with great views of kudzu and the "temporary" sewage holding pond. Anyway, tobacco, like crack, creates it's own demand.
Knew it was over two years ago when a two hundred acre "farm" went up for sale (asking 5 million) with a big picture of a black angus and no info on the land. Did a quick, back of the envelope. Real estate taxes alone would run within a whisker of $100,000/year. How much damned hamburger would you have to sell? Mein got und little green fish hooks. What comes after terminally stupid?
dupe.
So how long before it goes green 20 minutes
Ah the market is rebounding nicely. Gotta love "free" markets.
As in "free of charge" to the playahs.
1305.60 pretty soon gold will need a space suite
Break out of range now retest, all up from here in the SP500.
PMIs wil be all good BUY EM
Afternoon sell off, no Pomo tomorrow.
This data is shit. This week will be a bloodbath. ESP. By Friday.
i think you might just have it exactly right.
i covered a fair bit of my short pos this am, but am thinking i was fooled...
still well short though.
If not this week, then next week, we will see a break.
Feb. 2009 still holds the record low of 25. I think we can go lower.
I am st st st starting to st st st stutter like Forest Gump. B B Buy EUR, JPY, G G Gold and Se se sell USD all at the same time. Oh, and B B Buy ES ... Hmmm.
May the beatings continue until moral improves. twenty percent of the demand is gone. paper over the lagging loss.
"How much damned hamburger would you have to sell?" We did a analysis in the early seventy's and then the average 400 acre farm model was toast by the MSU numbers. Of the 4 I knew who tried 3 went bankrupt in ag. As long as the mobs got there subsidized food the rinse and repeat model continues from lessons learned from standard oil of new jersey. Cut it a nickel and the serfs willl never consider the consequences.
Bad data won't matter when you have the magic stock index futures.
Bingo!
Just look at the hungry machines bidding up ES, gobble gobble.
I thought this was going to be another boring day. But the bottle rocket ride for Gold has me back at the computer. I will never get any work done now.
Almost 10am cst, time to settle into our 5 hour range.
Stock's shrug off bad data as the Federal Reserve gives free money to wall street dealers to bid stocks higher, this they hope will turn the public bullish.
There is less and less "public" left to turn "bullish". I think they just want to end up owning it all. As long as fools continue to honour counterfeit money why wouldn't they just keep buying everything up? Maybe that was their plan all along? Any one else mind that 95% of America is becoming owned by criminals through counterfeiting?
Yes I agree, and have been saying as much for a while now. Last gasp effort to turn approval and confidence numbers around to divert a humiliation election. I do not believe this election will take place with todays Obama approval at a horrendous 40%, with the other 60% being strong disapproval. They will see the effect the Sept 800 point DOW run actually had, that is piss everyone off more, and reverse direction sometime mid Oct is my personal belief. Watch out for the accompanying false flag diversions they will have to be spectacularly horrible to hide the rest.
AND the markets of course respond with euphoric green far as the eye can see. POMO economic model.
Market is a Zombie now, shoot it's head off and it still trudges forward.
Just like 2 years ago. Exploding bad news...and equities stumble forward.
Until it hits that down 40% month like 2 years ago.
it is sad watching our economy die
it is maddening to watch it die at the hands of criminal globalist bankers
and their treasonous whores in government
May we always remember what they did from this day forward and never forget. Why are these cheats endangering themselves by trying to turn everyone into slaves? Either they plan on killing everyone or they must think that somehow they can lie their way through this? Good luck with that!
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