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The Big Picture: Why Is It So Hard to Stop the Oil Gusher, and Why Was Such Extreme Deepwater Drilling Allowed in the First Place?
The government failed to properly ensure that BP used adequate
safety measures, BP and their contractors were criminally negligent for
the oil spill, and BP has tried to cover up the problem. See this.
But why hasn't BP stopped the leak?
Some people assume that BP hasn't stopped the oil leak because it's people are wholly incompetent.
Others have asked whether BP's $75 million liability cap is motivating it to stall by taking half-hearted measures until it's relief well drilling is complete.
But
there is another possible explanation: the geology at the drilling site
makes stopping the leak more difficult than people realize.
Does the Geology of the Spill Zone Make It Harder to Stop the Oil Spill?
We
can't understand the big picture behind the Gulf oil spill unless we
know the underwater geology of the seabed and the underlying rocks.
For
example, if there is solid rock beneath the leaking pipes, with
channels leading to other underground spaces, then it might be possible
to seal the whole spill zone, with the oil - hopefully - oozing
somewhere under the seabed so that it won't spill into the ocean.
If,
on the other hand, there is hundreds of feet of sand or mud beneath the
leaking pipes, then sealing the spill zone might not work, as the
high-pressure oil gusher would just leak out somewhere else.
BP has never publicly released geological cross-sections of the seabed and underlying rock. BP's Initial Exploration Plan
refers to "structure contour maps" and "geological cross sections", but
such drawings and information are designated "proprietary information"
and have been kept under wraps.
It is impossible to determine the geology from drawings publicly released by BP, such as this one:
However, Roger Anderson and Albert Boulanger of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory describe the basic geology of the oil-rich parts of the Gulf:
Production
in the deepwater province is centered in turbidite sands recently
deposited from the Mississippi delta. Even more prolific rates have
been recorded in the carbonates of Mexico, with the Golden Lane and
Campeche reporting 100,000 barrel per day production from single wells.
However, most of the deep and ultra-deepwater Gulf of Mexico is covered
by the Sigsbee salt sheet that forms a large, near-surface “moonscape”
culminating at the edge of the continental slope in an 800 meter high
escarpment.
***
Salt is the dominant structural element of
the ultra-deepwater Gulf of Mexico petroleum system. Large horizontal
salt sheets, driven by the huge Plio-Pleistocene to Oligocene sediment
dump of the Mississippi, Rio Grande and other Gulf Coast Rivers,
dominate the slope to the Sigsbee escarpment. Salt movement is recorded
by large, stepped, counter-regional growth faults and down-to-the-basin
fault systems soling into evacuated salt surfaces. Horizontal
velocities of salt movement to the south are in the several cm/year
range, making this supposedly passive margin as tectonically active as
most plate boundaries.
***
Porosities over 30 percent and
permeabilities greater than one darcy in deepwater turbidite reservoirs
have been commonly cited. Compaction and diagenesis of deepwater
reservoir sands are minimal because of relatively recent and rapid
sedimentation. Sands at almost 20,000 feet in the auger field (Garden
Banks 426) still retain a porosity of 26% and a permeability of almost
350mdarcies. Pliocene and Pleistocene turbidite sands in the Green
Canyon 205 field have reported porosities ranging from 28 to 32% with
permeabilities between 400 mdarcies and 3 darcies. Connectivity in
sheet sands and amalgamated sheet and channel sands is high for
deepwater turbidite reservoirs and recovery efficiencies are in the
40-60% range.
See also this.
The
BP oil spill leak is occurring in the "Macondo" Prospect, Block 252, in
the Mississippi Canyon Area of the Gulf (much of the oil-rich areas
under the Gulf are in the Mississippi Canyon and Fan areas: "In the central Gulf of Mexico, the Mississippi Canyon and Fan system is the dominant morphologic feature").
If
the geology at Block 252 of the Macondo Prospect is like that described
by Anderson and Boulanger for most of the oil-rich portion of the Gulf,
then it might be difficult to stop the oil gusher without completing
relief wells (which will take a couple of months).
Specifically,
if there are salt layers on the top of the seabed, with high porosity
near the surface, and salt movement, then sealing the whole leak zone
might not work. The oil pressure is coming up at such high pressures (more than 2,000 pounds per square inch),
that sealing the leaking riser and blowout preventer might just mean
the oil squirts out somewhere else nearby, if the salty, porous rock is
not solid enough to contain it.
Unless the government
releases details of the geology underlying the spill site, people will
not have an accurate picture of the oil spill situation. And failure to
release such information may prevent creative scientists from coming up
with a workable solution.
The first draft of Anderson and Boulanger's paper, in 2001, stated:
No means currently exists to produce oil and gas to market from such water depths!
(exclamation point is Anderson and Boulanger's).
If the geology at Block 252 is like that described by Anderson and
Boulanger for most of the oil-rich portion of the Gulf, then it might
be difficult to stop the oil gusher without completing relief wells
(which will take a couple of months).
Specifically, if there
are salt layers right under the sea floor, high porosity near the
surface or salt movement, then sealing the leak by plugging the risers
and blowout preventer might not work. The oil pressure is coming up at
such high pressures (more than 2,000 pounds per square inch), that sealing the leaking equipment at the level of the seabed might just mean the oil will flow out somewhere else nearby.
The
government must publicly release details of the geology under the spill
site. Until it does so, people will not have be understand what is
going on. And failing to release such information may prevent creative
scientists from around the world from coming up with a workable
solution.
In addition, the first draft of Anderson and Boulanger's paper - released in 2001 - stated:
No means currently exists to produce oil and gas to market from such water depths!
(exclamation point is Anderson and Boulanger's).
In
other words, while BP, its subcontractors, and the government were all
negligent with regard to the Deepwater Horizon operation, it should be
noted that drilling at such depths is new technology, operating in
largely uncharted conditions. As such, the dangers of deepwater
drilling in general should not be underestimated. The geology
of the oil-rich region in the Gulf makes drilling difficult, and oil
spills appear to be tough to contain in general.
Oil Is Considered A National Security Issue
So
why are oil companies being allowed to drill so deeply under the Gulf
in the first place? In other words, why has the government been so
supportive of deepwater drilling in the Gulf?
The answer - as Anderson and Boulanger note - is
that there is a tremendous amount of more oil deep under the Gulf, and
that the United States government considers oil drilling in the deep
waters of the Gulf as a national security priority:
The
oil and gas industry and the United States government both face
tremendous challenges to explore discover, appraise, develop, and
exploit vast new hydrocarbon reserves in waters deeper than 6000 feet
in the ultra-deepwater of the Gulf of Mexico. Yet these new reserves of
hydrocarbons are needed to offset the economically detrimental,
long-term decline in production from within the borders of the United
States***
If successfully developed, the new play
concept would fill an essential gap in the overall strategic defenses
of the United States by decreasing the gap that results in the nation's
dependence on foreign oil and gas reserves in this volatile and
hostile, post 9/11 world. However, the successful production of oil and
gas from this new carbonate play concept requires much more
cost-efficient evaluation and appraisal technologies than exist today
to economically conduct exploration, appraisal, and development
activities. These new technologies must be developed before production
can be practical in the ultra-deepwater operating environment.... The
Ultra-Deepwater and Unconventional Gas Trust Fund of the DOE has as its
mission to cut costs and time-to-market not incrementally, but
radically, so that the United States can optimally utilize these
strategic hydrocarbon reserves. The DOE, with extensive
industry,academic and non-governmental assistance, developed an
Offshore Technology Roadmap ...,***
The U. S. Energy
Bill of 2002 has allocated significant resources to fund innovative
industry, academic, and national laboratory research initiatives to
develop the new technologies necessary to explore and produce these new
ultra-deepwater reserves economically. The purpose is not only to
impact the national defense, but also to regain our international
technological leadership in the deepwater, recently lost to the
Brazilians, Norwegians, and Europeans.***
Congress, never a
big friend to energy interests, has acted to create the Ultra-deepwater
Trust Fund that would add an astounding $200 billion by 2017, if
successful at developing the new production technologies required.
So
the Department of Energy and Congress have committed to development of
the deepwater Gulf oil reserves in the name of national security. This
also helps explain why Obama has been pro-drilling in the Gulf.
But let's take a step back and ask why the government considers oil a national security priority in the first place?
Well, the U.S. military is the largest consumer of oil in the world. As NPR reported in 2007:
All
the U.S. tanks, planes and ships guzzle 340,000 barrels of oil a day,
making the American military the single-largest purchaser and consumer
of oil in the world.
If the Defense
Department were a country, it would rank about 38th in the world for
oil consumption, right behind the Philippines.
As Reuters pointed out in 2008:
U.S.
military fuel consumption dwarfs energy demand in many countries around
the world, adding up to nearly double the fuel use in Ireland and 20
times more than that of Iceland, according to the U.S. Department of
Energy.
And as I summarized last year:
Sara Flounders writes:
By
every measure, the Pentagon is the largest institutional user of
petroleum products and energy in general. Yet the Pentagon has a
blanket exemption in all international climate agreements.
***
The
Feb. 17, 2007, Energy Bulletin detailed the oil consumption just for
the Pentagon's aircraft, ships, ground vehicles and facilities that
made it the single-largest oil consumer in the world.
***
Even
according to rankings in the 2006 CIA World Factbook, only 35 countries
(out of 210 in the world) consume more oil per day than the Pentagon.
***
As I pointed out out last week:
Professor Michael Klare noted in 2007:
Sixteen
gallons of oil. That's how much the average American soldier in Iraq
and Afghanistan consumes on a daily basis -- either directly, through
the use of Humvees, tanks, trucks, and helicopters, or indirectly, by
calling in air strikes. Multiply this figure by 162,000 soldiers in
Iraq, 24,000 in Afghanistan, and 30,000 in the surrounding region
(including sailors aboard U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf) and you
arrive at approximately 3.5 million gallons of oil: the daily petroleum tab for U.S. combat operations in the Middle East war zone.And in 2008, Oil Change International released a report showing
that [b]etween March 2003 and October 2007 the US military in Iraq
purchased more than 4 billion gallons of fuel from the Defense Energy
Support Center, the agency responsible for procuring and supplying
petroleum products to the Department of Defense.
Indeed, Alan Greenspan, John McCain, George W. Bush, Sarah Palin, a high-level National Security Council officer and others all say that the Iraq war was really about oil.
Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says that the Iraq war alone will cost $3-5 trillion dollars.
And economist Anita Dancs writes:
Each year,
our military devotes substantial resources to securing access to and
safeguarding the transportation of oil and other energy sources. I
estimate that we will pay $90 billion this year to secure oil. If
spending on the Iraq War is included, the total rises to $166 billion.
Are you starting to get the picture?
In addition, experts say that the Iraq war has increased the threat of terrorism. See this, this, this, this, this, this and this.
Personally,
I strongly believe that it is vital for our national security - and our
economy - to switch from dependence on oil to a basket of alternative energies. As I pointed out Friday:
It's
not just the one BP oil rig. For example, since the Deepwater Horizon
oil drilling rig exploded on April 20th, the Obama administration has
granted oil and gas companies at least 27 exemptions
from doing in-depth environmental studies of oil exploration and
production in the Gulf of Mexico. Then there are the 12 new oil and gas
drilling rigs launched in the U.S. this week.And a whistleblower who survived the Gulf oil explosion claims
in a lawsuit that BP's operations at another oil platform risk another
catastrophic accident that could "dwarf" the Gulf oil spill, partly
because BP never even reviewed critical engineering designs for the
operation. And see this.***
And the Department of Defense also apparently has some issues with extensive off-shore drilling for security reasons.
Many still believe that alternative energy is an expensive, unrealistic pipe dream.
But that is no longer necessarily true, especially when the externalities of environmental and military costs are taken into account.
But existing national policy is to do whatever is
necessary - drilling deep under the Gulf and launching our military
abroad - to secure oil. Until we change our national security and
energy policies, future mishaps - environmental, military and economic
- may frequently occur.
H/t: Rusty Shorts.
»
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George:
Re: Why Was It Allowed?
How about regulatory capture and the liability cap?
Very disturbing: MMS continues to give waivers (more gov't doublespeak) "MMS continues to issue permits, at least seven new permits for various types of drilling and five environmental waivers have been granted, according to a report by the New York Times."
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/ybenjamin/detail??blogid=150&entry_i...
The blowout could have exceeded the parameters of their equipment-all of it including the Deep Horizon, this will take years to study and probably require new drilling techniques such as "offset drillers", which park the drill ship a mile or more offsite from the actual drill hole to mitigate the effects of blowouts, and require the installation of remote controlled submarine-subterranian blowout preventers far below the sea floor yet above the oil reservoir.
The good news is deep oil leaks tend to break up and decompose before they hit the surface minimizing the environmental impact unlike the Exxon Valdez, who knows the leak may even have a "fertilizing effect" on the local marine environment and we'll see an explosion of life a year or two down the road.
You cannot "park the drill ship a mile or more offsite" from the well. It has to be connected to the well to drill it. Note that the Horizon was a mile from the seabed wellhead. Having some sort of dogleg in the connection serves no purpose.
Howdy all,
Wow, my very first post on Zero Hedge.
Big fan...you guys are great...and what have you.
Anyway, regarding the technical details of "how did this blowout happen?"
If you haven't yet seen it, I recommend the riveting 60-Minutes interview with rig explosion survivor/whistleblower/chief electronics technician Mike Williams:
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6503436n&tag=contentMain;contentBody
During this interview he describes how, weeks before the blowout, someone inadvertantly hit a toggle switch during a routine test of the blowout preventer (BOP). My understanding is that one of the ways the BOP is designed to work is by having a thick rubber annulus (i.e., "sphincter") somehow clamp down on the drill pipe and/or casing to seal it. During the routine test, while this rubber was clamped down, hitting that toggle switch by mistake caused the drill pipe to move against the rubber seal (thousands of pounds of pressure involved in this).
Anyway, the key thing revealed in the interview was that some hours or days later, after the test had been completed and routine drilling had resumed, there were CHUNKS OF RUBBER coming up in the drilling mud. This was noticed by the drilling technicians and brought to the attention of a supervisor, but the supervisor DISMISSED their claims and NO ACTION WAS TAKEN.
My theory is that this critical seal was compromised, so that whenever there were any subsequent tests of the pressure in the well, involving closure of this seal, the seal was in fact leaking. With a leaking seal in the BOP, the pressure readings from within the well would have been inaccurate - probably lower readings were recorded because of the leaking when the actual pressure in the well was much higher.
Thus followed the decisions to remove the drilling mud prematurely, based on defective pressure readings because the original "chunks-of-rubber" red flag was ignored.
This is just one of several red flags that were ignored in the weeks leading up to the blowout.
All in the name of saving BP some money, of course.
Well worth watching the interview with this survivor.
this is further evidence that obama is a sock puppet of the rockefeller / rothschild axis of evil interests who are allied with the bush crime syndicate....the indonesian citizen will do anything his masters tell him....
www.obamacrimes.com
DEEPWATER PLUNGER DELAYED:
http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/05/deep-plunger-delayed.html
We want to have cake and eat it ... too.
Get rid of automobiles and the problem is solved. Will never produce enough oil to satisfy the exponential growth of the auto population worldwide. 'Strategic considerations' and 'National Security' are cheap gas so that people can waste it driving in circles.
Strategy and national security are nested within pop culture that includes cars, surfboards, bikinis, 7- Eleven and celebrities. Pop culture sez automobies are 'necessities'. It also sez Beatles records are necessities along with televisions, condoms, electric coffee makers, personal pet grooming, yellow ties, Snoop Dog, crime dramas, cul- de- sacs and riding lawn mowers.
Pop culture is advertising we run inside our own personal TV's. We dictate to ourselves what is required to conform to a template created by advertising directors who are currently dead. Pop culture tells us Paris Hilton is important; pop culture makes the President into a theatrical prop.
Pop culture icons such as Rush Limbaugh and Jon Stewart make policy. The consequence is policy that is incoherent. We 'need' cars while we decry oil spills at the same time.
The obstacle to resolving this mess is cultural. Getting a culture that doesn't include plastic crap made in factories (in or out of China) is a good place to start. There is the example of many pleasant and successful civilizations that have thrived without plastic crap made in factories that can be used as models. A solution would be for the government to send a delegation to the Eurozone - Italy or France would do - and for them to examine some of the very nice cities and towns that were built before the automobile.
Once the idea is fixed in the mind - a couple of weeks in Tuscany ought to do the trick - it can be recreated here minus the autos and other plastic crap. The entire recreation project would take about three or four centuries and give unemployed citizens something useful and creative to do.
Pop culture celebrates mindlessness. We have painted ourselves into a corner of the mindless cul- de- sac and don't know what to do. First step is to jettison useless pop- culture.
But if the people are not distracted, they might pay attention. And if they pay attention, they might get ANGRY.
Can't have that! Quick ... run another story on the spaced-out nympho television star!
JUST BECAUSE - inspired by William Rivers Pitt
just because the only map in that
energy meeting they and the court made secret
had no cities or mountains
but plenty of spots of oil,
just because four airplanes somehow managed
to pierce the most amazing
air defense system in history
and a bunch of government anthrax
was mailed only to Democrats,
just because the day after
and I mean the day immediately after,
they all lied
about weapons, labs, drones and uranium,
and just because we ruined two countries,
and the 'War on Terror'
is nothing more than a business arrangement gone to hell,
where CIA agents lose cover
so their husbands will shut the hell up,
where cold hearted guys like Chalabi
use the NYT to feed us lies,
cause the NYT is never wrong,
and just because our phones are tapped,
our homes are entered, and Habeas Corpus rolls like
a circle of toilet paper,
where signing statements crush the Constitution,
and feed it to a machine
that would make Dwight Eisenhower wretch in horror,
and just because our television tells us
not to worry,
just look at that dead model's baby or that shaved starlet's head,
till we all fall painfully to sleep
doesn't mean that We The People are finished,
cause all of this is why we wrote down
"We The People" in the first place,
and even though they've had their word,
We The People have a few things to say
and the next sentence
will be ours.
This blowout has nothing to do with the shallow seabed geology. The well is a pipe. I haven't heard anyone say the well is leaking under the seabed. Exxon, Shell, and Chevron are out there drilling safely and have been since the '90's. It's not such a mystery. BP just f***ed up. They should be paying for it. I would charge them 1 year of cash flow and revoke their drilling bond in the Gulf of Mexico.
They are drilling there because that is the only economical oil left to go get.
There are no gigantic surface fields with production figures that will rival these. ANWR is about it as far as remaining significant surface deposits.
Why the fk you guys think BRAZIL is drilling in the SAME types of formations, under even MORE water and MORE rock? Because of environuts?
Get real. These are the only oilfields that are left unexploited. There is no conspiracy, there is a Peak Oil Curve.
Is it so hard to admit that once you eat the low-hanging fruit and then eat some of the higher apples, that all that remain are the ones high up the tree, that you have to climb to and take risks to get?
That's where we are.
The reason we're going after lower EROI fields is because all of the highest EROI fields were developed FIRST.
The reason for the deep water drilling is that much of the world's oil reserves are controlled by governments. Those governments limit access for political reasons in many cases. The idiot Chavez is a prime example.
Why is gasoline so much more expensive in Euro land? The govts. there tax the hell out of it to limit citizen access to low cost energy.
you've got it backwards Augustus. Geology and oil cost are dictating policy not the other way around. Trav's got it right
So then it a geology issue that is keeping the Iraqi oil from flowing. When they likely have more oil than the Saudis?
Geology is preventing drilling off shore California?
Geology is preventing development of oli sands?
Geology is preventing development of ANWR using about 300 acres out of millions?
How about that? Geologists just don't want to work in those places. Who knew?
I still think geology drives this overall tragedy. That doesn't mean it drives every act, scene and line. Iraq is a perfect example of this chicken and egg problem. Geology drove our murderous, dishonest invasion and its complicated political fallout prevents the easy flow. So you tell me. Apostate questions the exact timing of peak and reminds us that governments and oil companies lie but Hubbert and our country's recent behavior lay out the big picture pretty clearly. Oil cost, in the overall picture, is also driven by our ever diminishing supply and ever increasing demand. The little blips along the way are insignificant. Does it really matter if peak is two years from now or two years ago? It's here. Your other examples seem to suggest that if it weren't for those pesky politicians, the other sources would solve the problem but they are literally a piss in the bucket. And expensive ones at that. We will very likely need every last bit we can reasonably obtain but we are so far behind that we will need to throw every bit toward building the new systems, otherwise we are pissing in the wind. In the end, I still think geology predicted this story from day one. Mankind was going to discover the most amazing energy source ever created, they were going to harness it, build their entire society and economy around it, and never ever plan for it to run out. Then when things started to tighten up, they would get desperate and lie, cheat, steal and kill for it. So in the end you are correct Augustus, it is mankind's stupidity, not geology that put us here.
It's wrong to discount political factors in the oil business. The majority of oil reserves are controlled by governments or crony corporations that might as well be government entities.
If you're making a claim that the world has already gone past-peak, you have to make the argument from the data. The data will never be complete, so it's impossible to honestly make that claim at any point.
Furthermore, reserve numbers are adjusted up and down by dishonest governments and companies all the time. The oil price is highly politicized.
One more thing: GW, try reading a little science instead of just politics.
Alternative energy can never be a replacement for conventional energy (unless you consider fusion alternative, and only God knows when fusion will work).
Can you pay 10 times your current power bill and survive economically. My monthly bill is about $200. If it went to $2000, I would notice it. Even $1000 would be a problem. That is the reality of alternative energy (plus constant blackouts, grid failures, etc.)
It is fine to say that we could switch if we wanted to. That is true, if we were willing to destroy (not lower, I support that) our standard of living. If we went back to one light bulb per household, no A/C or heat, no refrigeration, etc. we can switch to alternatives tomorrow.
However, if we build nucs, drill in accessible places, research oil shales, etc. we can keep our current (or close to it) lifestyles (and economy). The choice is not alternative technologies that won't work or Middle Eastern oil. It is a sensible energy policy or Middle Eastern oil.
Alternative energy is a red herring put out there by the people who want us to return to the Dark Ages (literally and figuratively) to force a mass die-off of humanity in service to Gaia.
Science isn't the issue ... economics is. Can alternative energy be made economically?
Dunno ... oil companies and other TPTB keep on messing with it, so we don't have a free market:
Economics is why you aren't able to wak on the moon. So what does that prove?
Even if the study is correct, what the 14 cents buy? It was not able to advance the capability enough to compete with $75 oil. If it had been 25 cents would it have reduced the costs or simply increased the hype?
The buying up battery patents conspiracy is nonsense. But if you did have a battery, who or what would provide the energy for it to story? Squirrell cages? But since energy should actually be free and available to everyone in unlimited quantities, why worry about costs. Just like healthcare, energy is a right, just not oil, gas, coal or nuclear.
Pretty interesting writeup on how well the Green Jobs promises have wroked out for the Spain and Denmark:
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/obamas-model-green-country-denmark-evicts-citizens-clear-cuts-forests-for-windmill-space/
Not so good. Should those who made the promises of Nirvana and free energy be held accountable? In which court?
Invisible Hand
"Alternative energy is a red herring put out there by the people who want us to return to the Dark Ages (literally and figuratively) to force a mass die-off of humanity in service to Gaia."
No by people who have zero ability to connect the dots.
I see the same when discussing Solar, how they expect government to foot the bill. They never realize that WE are the government and WE have no money. They assume that every plan will come in on budget.
These are people looking for Daddy's bank account to come to the rescue.
I have some really cheap mountain property located on three-mile island that you might be interested in; quiet and peaceful; great place to raise the kids.
3 mile island was a jane fonda media event. You want to see a real disaster, look at what happens when a mountain size coal ash heap breaks its barriers due to rain. Thats a real disaster...
They are drilling in the difficult (and dangerous) places because that is the only place they can get permission to drill. Simple as that. No conspiracy, just stupidity on the part of our govt (and our society). Build nucs, drill in easily accessible places (including close off-shore on Atlantic seaboard), etc., etc. Technically easier but politically harder. We must have energy to run a modern society. We just need to get some adults in charge of govt to make the hard choices.
Now looking to Blame cement!!! Who was the supplier???
Seems like they have been trying all along to capture the flow (domes, siphons, relief) rather than to just stop it.
This is BOB. You hit the nail on the head.
I agree. "Look at all that cheddar!"
This kind of timeline has probbaly been available before, but the first time I read it - all in one place.
Apparently a very problematic well to drill.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/os-florida-oil-spill-unspoken-risks...
"
According to the Deepwater Horizon's well ticket, that struggle defined almost every foot of progress made by the rig — until the Gulf's geology finally won.
In late February, the rig was losing mud in a weak formation, according to the well ticket. Among the variety of tricks drillers have at their disposal when that happens, the most reliable is to continually reinforce a well with permanent sections of casing or with liner and cement. Deepwater Horizon did that nine times.
In early March, the rig experienced a double dose of trouble, according to the well ticket: The pressure of the underground petroleum temporarily overwhelmed the mud, triggering alarms on the rig. At nearly the same time, the rig's drill pipe and drill bit became stuck in the well.
Just one or the other of those occurrences would amount to a bad day for any rig.
Deepwater Horizon recovered, but only after losing hundreds of feet of drilling pipe — likely at an equipment cost of several million dollars — and losing nearly two weeks of rig time.
The rig then progressed an additional 4,955 feet before again losing mud to a weak formation.
By mid-April, Deepwater Horizon reached the well's total depth of 18,360 feet — more than 3 miles — where it again encountered a formation that swallowed mud.
Rig workers twice lowered measuring instruments connected to steel cable into the well. The tools should have passed smoothly to the bottom, but instead they hit obstacles near the bottom — more evidence of an unstable well.
Petroleum engineers who reviewed the rig's well ticket and other documents said drilling the well appears to have been more difficult than usual, though not beyond what current technology and extra care are capable of handling.
"
in other words, it was cursed from the start. thanks for sharing this.
If the diagram is correct then the BP relief well is being drilled 18,000 feet into the payzone.
A relief well does not need to be drilled this deep. It only needs to be drilled to intersect the primary well to permit milling out the casing and injecting mud into the original well bore.
If I read the diagram correctly BP is in fact drilling a production well that will have the side benefit of permitting them to kill the original well. Every foot of depth adds additional time to the drilling program. If they wanted to kill the well quickly then they should be drilling the relief well as shallow as possible.
They need to get the cement into the bottom of the well where the casing is backed up by the cement. The pipe with open hole behind it might not contain the pressure. It is somewhat like a squeeze job where the squeeze is located below the inlet point. Another complication here may be the BHP would not be big enough if the cement is too high up the hole.
I also really like the nutters complaining about why BP has not yet tried the bullhead junk shot. The problem is that if it does not work the stuff that is left is going to be a real problem to have to deal with. It could result in a much larger screw up if it fails. It is going to take a great deal of over balance to force stuff down that pipe in opposition ot the oil in there now.
They do not need access to the well at TD. Once they gain any access to the original wellbore they would be able to circulate in a heavy mud weight and reduce/kill the flow.
There is another report this morning of further problems at the mudline. My hunch (I don't have any better information than anyone else) is that they had a channeled cement job which resulted in a pressurized annulus and this lead to a blow in of an upper casing seal once the riser was displaced to seawater and the head reduced.
If I am correct on the above (and this is speculation only) then the 6 billion dollar question is:
1) which seal failed?
2) What is the depth from point of failure to the mudline?
3) What is the stratigraphy between the point of failure and the mudline?
(I realize this is more than one question but for 6 billion you deserve additional value)
If the overburden is nothing more than loose unconsolidated sediments then we may see a sub-surface blowout. That and the resulting scour will likely increase flow.
So If BP is in fact running a relief well targeting the payzone then they they have made a very expensive and very foolish decision.
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/GOM%20Oil%20Spill%20Figure_2a.jpg
1) the 7 inch annulus seal... 11,000 feet down (that would be a bit above where they were when the rubber came up... just a guesstimate though...)
2) 6,000 feet down
3) less consolidated the higher you go...
Surface blowout is possible if the increased pressure from the junk/mud shots blow out a higher seal...
The ballsy bastards are drilling two new horizontal production wells!
Insane idea actually... unless they know for certain they can cement the well... in that case it's $2 billion dollars a year brilliant!
They don't know where the failure is for sure. That is the problem. And the reason why they are intending to intersect and cement from the bottom up. Maybe they could send The One down the pipe to locate it? The diagram in the article is a simple cartoon and I would not take too much from it as to the exact depth of the intended intercept. However, note that if there is a casing problem and communication behind the last string with a blown seal, then cementing the inside of the last string to the surface would not help. That is why the intercept is at the bottom or near it. It is also a problem in that whatever formation problems they had drilling #1 will be there for #2 and #3. Pretty trick situation being a rig hand on than job and with a bunch of oil already in the water.
I had an IDEA to have the moth balled/tankers sitting at anchor all over the world ( or the empty ones in the Gulf) to "hover" over top of these 5 mile by 10 mile by 100 plus meter "oil ploom islands" and vacuume the oil into the tankers and sail them off to a refinery. Imagine how much oil is in a 5 by 10 mile by 100 meter thick lsland...dozens of tankers worth...that is how much.
The effort to collect human hair to sop up oil, WILL NOT be uses...not approved EPA method!!!! Just chemicals folks, just more chemicals are approved.
OUR President needs to get off his butt and act like a President and get every possible resource to this emergency...he is again failing us, letting BP do it's best first. You can't put Pandora back in the box(BP has limited reason to do more then make promisses and hand out questionable data), and too little is being done to late.
So who did I call about this idea?
Governor Crist, and aid 'took the message".
Alan Grayson ( who's intern refused to let me speak to anyone...so much for Alan Grayson.).
Senator Bill Nelson, no one 'in the office'.
The Department of Enviormental Regulation, Florida answering machine.
The US Coast Guard,( the answering machine said leave a message and we "will call you back sometime next week"!!!)
BP Hot line "for Ideas"..."we will put it in the pipeline".
Representative Ross Leightnam...nada
Representative Ron Saunders....nada
So who the hell is doing what? How many sheets of paper are now sitting on top of this idea, and how many weeks will go by before someone, if anyone reads this idea. Lots of people pondering the mess, and how to clean it up.
Would it not be easier to vacuume up the oil instead of waiting fot it to hit the seashore, marshes, coral reefs, loop currents, etc. These 'oil islands", and there are many of them, are sitting more or less stantionary (because of the good weather so far)but slowly making their way to the currents.
IS THIS SOMEKIND OF PLAN to take the enconomy down? If this government and BP had told the truth in the beginning, may be the actions taken could have made a big difference. But we NEVER do know the big picture do we?
Your idea makes a much sense as having those ships loaded with Tampax to stuff in the well to shut it off. Proposing to suck up the spilled oil is about the same as the skimmers are doing now. There is then a big mess that needs to be seperated at sea with a low oil percentage in it.
I don't know much about oil drilling, but I do know about mission critical software. Before a major change goes in, we have one, two, or three backup plans, to roll the change back out and recover the data and get back to normal opeations.
I don't know if we are being told everything, but there does not seem to be a really solid plan, and the equipment in place to handle this spill. The response seems slow, and timid. Maybe there was one plan that the BOPs would
take care of everything, but there seems to be no plan
after that.
"OUR President needs to get off his butt and act like a President"
That's an Oxymoron...................
has anyone started a call for a boycott of BP gas stations until they tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth?
hello G-dub????
The oil may be under a very high pressure, once you drill through the overlying bedrock, it may be impossible to stop it flowing.
Would be interesting to know the rate of flow at the wellhead, before it exploded.
There was no oil flowing until the explosion. The mud used in drilling keeps it under control.
Hydrostatic pressure of salt water = 0.445 psi per foot of depth.
At 5000 feet deep, the column of water at the sea bed exerts 2,225 pounds per square inch (psi). If the oil is coming out at 2,000 psi, it wouldn't come out at all, so it must be coming out at somewhat higher than that. From the undersea video, we can see that the oil is coming out, but at some very low differential pressure.
Sailors / power station workers: ever see (or, more like hear) a steam leak in a 1200 psi steam system? Woo Hoo! Cut you right in half, literally. 1200 pound steam leak stories are used to scare noobs. What we are seeing on the seabed is no 2000psi differential leak. The thing that needs to be sealed needs to be sealed at the pressure differential between the external pressure (column of seawater above it) and the exit pressure of the oil piupe that is leaking. It looks to me like not that many pounds of differential at all. Now, having said that, it is still a 21 inch pipe, so whatever we seal it with has to be capable of withstanding a number of psi times piX(10.5)squared, not a small number itself.
The big pressures are under the BOP. If there was no leak they would be on order of 10,000 to 20,000 PSI or so. What it actually is right now is anyones guess but BP assures us they are falling... (Good news if true...) Since the leaks coming from the risers on the seabed are much larger than the diameter than the leaks at the BOP it comes out slowly...
"or, more like hear) a steam leak in a 1200 psi steam system? Woo Hoo!"
wow i bet that's awesome to experience. have heard a collection of enormous steam whistles play 'auld lang syne' for new year's once and will never forget that sound. what's so amazing about it is that even though the vibrations are intense, they sound "clean". know what i mean?
ironically fuel can be made from seawater.schauberger figured this out long ago but thought it was a dumb idea when we could be harvesting clean energy from the implosion process.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17632-how-to-turn-seawater-into-je...
http://peswiki.com/index.php/Viktor_Schauberger:_Petrol_(Gasoline)_from_Water
http://jnaudin.free.fr/html/vtxtech.htm
Where the hell is the Navy? Oh yeah.....on their way to Iran......
What exactly do you expect them to do? Fire a Tomahawk at it?
Russians have used nuclear weapons to seal gas wells successfully 4 out of 5 times.
Since the seds here are so recent (and weak...) this would be not something that should be considered in the Gulf... yet.