Bill Gross' March Investment Outlook - Spread Convergence

Tyler Durden's picture

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Earth to Bill - "We don't care!"

Anonymous's picture

I care. Mr. Gross' commentary has gotten increasingly more interesting over the last few months. I think he understands that governments are close to a point of choosing. They must either accede to the economic pain, or cross the rubicon into a world of greatly diminished individual liberties. Either choice is risky. The former raises fears of violence born of poverty and desperation. The latter runs the risk of violence born of poverty and rebellion against overweening authority.

Bill seems to believe that the former is a better course. I hope other powerful people around the world come to the same conclusion.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Philosphopical musings uttered by the King have a distinctly different taste than those uttered by the plebs. In fact, the King's thoughts might be considered somewhat less than authentic, thought I grant you they may be just as sincere. Charitable offerings, be they financial or philosophical, are much more powerful when they come from those that have the least.

Gross can afford to be gracious and generous, both in deed and in word. He still plays the system with at best an amoral belief system and (it does appear) with all the gusto of the best dirt diggers. After the pile of chips is safely stashed in the nest, he bemoans his unfortunate involvement and the state of affairs. Hypocrisy by any other name is still hypocrisy.

Anonymous's picture

There is a level of cynicism beyond which the only action is to take up arms in the name of anarchy. No one can be trusted, so tear it all down and start from scratch. I'm not there yet.

Everyone has to live in the future we create starting now. Maybe, possibly, Bill Gross believes that his incentives are now aligned with those who have grave doubts about our current fiscal and monetary course. If that's true, for whatever reason, I welcome him to our small, but rapidly growing club.

Gromit's picture

At least he's a transparent hypocrite!

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

You make a good point. However, any person who allows the ever changing wind to determine his or her priorities, who must rely on "incentives" to take any position, is not one to be trusted. Once the wind changes along with that person's incentives, you will find yourself swinging from the same rope you used to pull him or her into your small group.

Bill Gross is a Chameleon. I've been following him for over 25 years. He's an opportunist and he will sell his soul if the money is right and there are enough people around him whispering in his ear to convince him he's on the right track. Whether we describe this as immoral and amoral matters little. He is not to be trusted.

At best, he sells himself to the highest bidder and will accept payment in the future if need be. He lies with the best, switches games with the best, he is the best. He will not help you unless he sees the percentage in it and he can just as quickly see the percentage in leaving you in the road side ditch.

Cynicism is a blanket view of everything, something that if you read my postings you will see I try to avoid. I always attempt to pull back and see the big picture. While I can understand the calculation that might make sense to accept Gross with open arms, I suspect you will need to replace that arm sometime in the future if you deal with Gross and his ilk.

Don't listen to what he says, watch what he does. He's been extremely consistent during the 25 years I've watched him. He says whatever the collective needs to hear in order to be acceptable. He recognizes the changing mood. He takes care of himself and his own.

Anonymous's picture

Not sure i see your point. Who does anything without proper incentives? Noone is here for the greater good of mankind. I wouldn't trust anyone who is not taking care of himself or his own.

E pluribus unum's picture

Bill Gross may be the most aptly named man on Wall Street

Hephasteus's picture

How to get out of a debt crisis. Default. Send the bill. We don't care either. Next time Bernanke tells congress how they plan to deal with budgets that include 850 billion a year in interest payments while banks are payng 0.25 percent a year in interest. Congress just simply needs to tell him. We'll simply stop paying interest stupid.

Mako's picture

"it depends"

Is the best answer I have seen in this blog yet.

 

If consumers are still able and/or willing to take on more than the system rights it's self in quick order but when you have negative numbers in total credit for more than a quarter or two than the likelyhood goes down drastically.  See federal reserve Z1 report for all figures.

Humans have a system that uses exponential equation as it's base... one problem with this... humans can't produce nor consume at an exponential rate long term.  Humans have it down to about a generation or 60-80 years.

Within time the unfunded liabilities will have to be liquidated, what are the unfunded liabilities?  Europe and parts of Africa and Asia were liquidated last time, many of those were involuntarily liquidated.  

Once you get negative numbers for more than a handful of quarters the fight against the equation becomes that much tougher.  

Humans would have to have unlimited power to beat this equation.

http://www.artofproblemsolving.com/Wiki/images/c/c9/2_power_x_growth.jpg

The real smoking gun is that humans think they can out wit the equation and are shocked when it collapses.   It's one big ass gaint ponzi scheme which 99.9% of the world's population is a part of. 

The liquidation process will be long, dark and windy road this time... not nearly as easy as last time.

Gromit's picture

Help me here.

Are you saying that Germany's improving economy after the disaster of Weimar could not have been sustained without war?

 

Mr Shush's picture

I believe he is pretty much saying that, yes. The theory, as I understand it, is that German economic growth in the 30s was built on unsustainable borrowing, with the full long term intention of armed default. My knowledge of economic history does not begin to equip me to say with any confidence whether that is accurate, but if that is his claim he is certainly not the only one to have made it.

Gromit's picture

Thanks.

I can't figure out which nation today corresponds to Germany then.

 

miker's picture

Gross's summary of why/how we arrived at where we are:  

Twenty years of accelerated globalization incrementally undermined the real incomes of most developed countries’ workers/citizens, forcing governments to promote leverage and asset price appreciation in order to fill in what is known as an “aggregate demand” gap – making sure that consumers keep buying things.  

is the most succinct (and correct) description of why we are where we are now. 

Those of you that think Greenspan, Rubin and others were ignorant of their actions......think again.  All of this started in the Clinton administration and was a defined plan to counter the effects of globalization.  Really it was a plan to kick the can down the road a bit longer, they knew it, but didn't care because the effects wouldn't show up on their "watch". 

Anonymous's picture

I enjoy cocktail parties - free booze!

Anonymous's picture

Hah, wtf is up with Bill's extended rip on cocktail parties. I mean really. Saying the parties you go to are full of douchebags and boring people is more a statement and reflection of what Bill is like to chit chat with rather then what's it like to go to a good party and socialize.

I lived in France for a few months to escape the US and the big lesson I learned is that if you ask the other person "what they do" at any point when you're getting to know someone, then you need to up your social game BIG TIME.

andy55's picture

Hah, wtf is up with Bill's extended rip on cocktail parties?  I mean really.  Saying that the parties you go to are full of boring people is more a statement and reflection of what you're like to chat with rather then what it's like to go to a good party and socialize.   In other words, if all the people at the parties you go to are douchebags, then take a look in the mirror.

I lived in Paris for a few months to take a break from the U.S. last year and the biggest lesson I learned is that if you ask the other person "what you do" at any point when you're getting to know someone, then your social skills need major work and people will generally find you boring.  I'd stand in awe as a roomful of europeans would meet each other for the first time and not once would I hear that dreaded question--boy, did I feel American.  As time went on, I was amazed to forge new friendships with europeans where even after knowing them for months, "what we did" simply never came up nor came into the equation of having fun or talking about interesting things.  And as the hallmark question "what do you do" fades into your rearview mirror as you become actually fun to talk to, you'll especially notice it when someone asks you that question 60 seconds within meeting them.

So, if you're reading this, challenge yourself and never ask that question again.  Only good things will happen, from meeting chicks, to making new friends, and learning about the real you: we are more than how we make money.

 

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Agreed.

".... the hallmark question "what do you do"........has everything to do with your perceived social status (aka penis and/or power "size") and nothing to do with anything else other than "me, me, me". The "higher" the social circle sees itself in relationship to those below, the more important this question is to each other. 

"What do you do" is the politically correct way of socially asking "How much money do you make, what is your social status, who do you know and who knows you". In an era when nearly everyone "up scale" wears the (male or female) business power suit, the costume we wear is much less telling than it was during the time of Kings and plebs.

The games (these) people play is more than just games. It's the difference between (social) life and death in their minds.

Anonymous's picture

What do you do?

Anonymous's picture

As little as possible.

Anonymous's picture

"I may not be able to get your kid a job at PIMCO"

(takes envelope) On second thought, Mr. Kashkari...

williambanzai7's picture

I hear they have cocktail readings of these letters in Newport Beach.

“Don’t trust any government and verify before you invest.”

Wise words.

Anonymous's picture

[quote]So, if you're reading this, challenge yourself and never ask that question again. Only good things will happen, from meeting chicks, to making new friends, and learning about the real you: we are more than how we make money.[/quote]

F8ck off.

Anonymous's picture

Those hair plugs are obviously too deep

jmc8888's picture

Well the human desire demand is there, just not the actual aggregate demand that comes from having money to realize what humans desire.

 

This isn't about people suddenly desiring far less and not spending...it's that a far greater percentage of people are broke and can't spend, they're desires to spend, going unfulfilled.  There's pent up demand, but no money to realize it.  The trickle down damn got plugged up, and credit (the thing that actually trickled down to us...gee wonder why...getting us on the hook???) is getting pulled or defaulted on.  The debt blew asset and commodity prices up so much the last 40 years that supply and demand simply can't meet anymore. Period.

 

I too would really like to see how the two will meet considering all the supposed (if you believe) stimulus pull backs and debt rollovers happening over the next few weeks and months.

 

Woo hoo, all the broke banks and lenders who used to be the mortgage market now seem to be carry trade artists. Makes me wonder if the brazil carry trade will get crushed when this happens.  Someone is going to have to take money out of the free 27 percent currency appreciation + 8.75 percent interest carry trade and put that into the housing market.  Of course it can never meet the demand the fed is currently providing (at depressed levels).  But could even an uptick from 90/10 fed/private to a 0/30-40 be enough to do this?  There will be home loans, just scarce and at 'who knows' interest rates.  But the money will have to come from SOMEWHERE.  My guess, the Brazillian carry trade.  See ya later Santander. 

Also credit cards just got cancelled or pulled a week ago from our college students. (you know the ones who more than 1/3 use to pay their tuition and where more than half have four cards with 3k in debt on each card...this is the AVERAGE)

They also got their rates spiked as they can't live off mommy and daddy's credit rating anymore.  (unless they co-sign). 

Of course say you live in Arizona...where they are trying to lower the minimum wage for college age students (18-22), your credit card lines just got cancelled, lowered, and/or interest rate spiked (thanks to REFORM...isn't that supposed to be PRO PEOPLE word, not anti-people word?)....and on top of all this the in state colleges raised tuition rates 20-40 percent for next year, depending on the university. Of course what used to cost 59 dollars, five years ago for the privlege of walking 2 miles to your nearest class in 100-120 degree heat (ASU lot 59), that privlege is now going to cost you about triple.  The closer parking structures, up from 200-250 dollars five years ago, to 600-700 and still rising...among many other nickel and dime procedures.  Like you have to buy healthcare through them, even if you have your own.  If you're a freshman you have to buy meal plans, even if you never intend to eat there.  100-200 text books, yikes, used ones???? still run you 80 percent of new prices.  You can literally spend almost 1k on books, soft cover supplementals, etc for a single semester.

Did I mention also the low cost food options like Burger King where it's prices are going up?  Not much, only 20 percent on the cheaper stuff you probably buy. 

But as you can see that increase has already been taken by everything else.  Something's got to give, and it's going to be the college students giving hell to anyone that will listen.  Will it be this spring we see the 60's marches again? Probably not, as it may take a few months before they really see what's going on.  Next school year....yeah I think that's when it'll start.

Something's got to give.  We're just extending, pretending, gouging, and nickel and diming each other trying to fix the broken system.  I'm saying what's going to give is the fantasy currently playing out in the markets, we're about to come back to reality, at least until Big Ben throws the printing press into overdrive.  Could be any day, week, or month.  But it sure seems like it's ramping up.  Good luck.

 

When the absurdity shines so bright in front of your face, look around, it also lights up the ugly truth hidden in the dark corner.

the grateful unemployed's picture

I'm a gross supporter, (i think he will be fed/treasury cabinet someday) but the bottom line in this long circuituous (brief) cocktail chatter is that the bond market is in a race to the bottom. The way it plays out assumes one of the two definitions of interest rates might apply, rates as credit, and rates as risk premium.

On one matter Gross might be mistaken, consumers simply have too much of everything, (see Bob Prechters special report on two Jaguar -automobiles-, the question is who needs more than one?) and GM made a lot of money by selling the average consumer as many as three different cars, when he only needed one. 1) the car he owns, which is usually older, and which serves a secondary purpose, like a van or a truck 2) the lease car which is his primary vehicle, and 3) the rental car he needs when he flies somewhere, and when his lease car has too many miles on it...

Now that everyone has just about everything they need, a second psychological factor arrives, the reaction to several decades of mass market consumer materialism. Never in my six decades have I seen money more coveted than it is now. That simply won't continue, people have other values, really.

That said we note that Newport Beach is ground zero in the wealth disparity map. Omaha not so much.

 

Anonymous's picture

fewer will live in the future that ww3 creates.
http://www.threeworldwars.com/albert-pike2.htm