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Bill Gross: The Rally Is Over
When the Fourth branch of government speaks, you should listen... and buy stocks here at your peril.
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in a market that's pure computer controlled farce, does it matter if every investor decides to sell?
Perhaps we'll find out the answer is NO (right before the bankster-owned government brands us all with 666)
I wish that was funny
What I like about Bill Gross is that he never talks his book :)
Alot of my wife's 401K is his book
Nasdaq leading the way lower, never a good sign for the bulls.
My screen shows 1 to 3 advances vs. decliners (195 stocks). This seems pretty wrong considering the dow and S&P are both up. Nasdaq not really getting hammered that hard. Junk stocks and recent high flyers getting crushed...check AIG. Maybe this is the beginning of the downturn. It looks disguised. Kicking myself for not taking puts on AIG and LVS.
Same shoes, at least SRS is still around 10, but the mgm byd and lvs short was another missed over here. Any bounce this week will def enter those.
I thought PIMCO was the 6th branch of government - did someone forget the Fed and the MSM?
Isn't PIMCO expanding their reach into active equity management?
They just want to buy low.
I read the other day that PIMCO is adding an equities division. Looks like he is just pissed he missed the junk rally.
USDZAR holding firm, close to completing a double bottom pattern. Suggests dollar rally has further to run, which is no surprise considering the vast majority are short the dollar.
Is the rally over?
I thought so back in June, only to be slapped handily. No doubt, this market is rigged bigtime by gov't liquidity and HAL9000 tradebots.
But something still rings in my head from a broker buddy: The US gov't has way more money than I do and has way less intelligence. This rally may go on for some time. I'm not saying it's good, not saying it's legit. But the US gov't is clearly headed down the path of no return with the dollar and fiduciary irresponsibility of taxpayer money. This sick patient can hang on for years, always taking more meds to cover up the internal damage. It will likely be an external force that brings it down, not our white collar criminals on Wall Street.
I have to disagree with Gross. I think they're closing this year out above 10K on the DOW.
Just because they can.
And it's as simple as that.
Now that there are ample fund "managers" chasing the tail the bigs can exit.
Apologies for the unrelated comment, but I thought this quite important for anybody holding PM's/cash/anything in bank lockers thinking it's "safe" (via JS Mineset):
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1222777/The-raid-rocked-Met-Why-gun-drugs-op-6-717-safety-deposit-boxes-cost-taxpayer-fortune.html
Thanks for the link GG. Looking like the old gold confiscation of the 30's, just using a different premise...
I wonder if people in the UK realize what a totalitarian regime they are living under? It's 1984 +25, or V for Vendetta -20. V is looking eerily prescient.
Do they know? Heck, they've been beggin for it. Next stop, try to get back your goods lost in those boxes by filing suit in Sharia court!
The safety deposit box oxymoron has been known for years by gold guys.. I had one, but kept it empty to throw them off.
They knew because there was a tax break for having one.
I keep my Playboy collection in my safety deposit box so the officers can keep "busy" while they are screwing everyone else.
My Gold is with the squirrels. Find the tree ass wipes.
GG - As egregious as this conduct is, it is relatively small potatoes when compared to other state actions. This process of erosion is precisely what Cas Sunstein and others have been actively pursuing in an overall program of furthering judicial exclusion.
Happens all the time in the U.S.A. Just try driving across parts of the South will cash in your car and be Black or Brown. Poof! And it's gone.
All your saving are belong to us.
+5
A cold wind from the future blows into my nighttime bedroom, more often than not during those midnight hours when fear dominates and hope retreats to a netherworld.
Wow! That's what I love about Bill! Not only is he a MAESTRO at investing (Chuck Norris style: kicks ass and takes names), BUT also he is a gifted, charming, literary, renaissance man. Who else could weave enlightened thoughts of mortality, philosophical musings, autobiographical reflections, and Shakespeare into a letter for investors? Definitely not the rest of the base, testosterone driven BOORS of high finance (the "old boys club") only interested in their self interest and money. Certainly, the most beautiful damsels sigh as he passes them at a ball, a man of principle, a man who is thoughtful.
These are not the only aspects of Bill that make me appreciate him. It's also that even when he could enjoy the successes his genius has brought him, his wonderful wife (just like Bill to be so loving), and his healthy 65 year old body, and lose himself in his personal interests... he CHOOSES to stay in a job where he can make a "VITAL CONTRIBUTION". Because really, that's what it all comes down to for Bill - contributing to something larger than himself and helping his fellow man... those who haven't been blessed by God with the good looks, sharp intelligence, witty lively bantering personality, healthy posture, and pedigree that he has...
As one of those people, I can only look with awe and respect to this, my enlightened benefactor, to provide for me, guide me, keep me safe, and share with me a glimmer of his magnificent self.
Gross is the governments biatch.......
and you sound like you would like to be his.
LOL...you apparently are thinking of the Dalai Lama which Mr. Gross is not. He is as rude to his employees as he is smart about the market. He makes Steve Jobs look like a pussycat in the human relations department and saves his smiles for the cameras.
heh. BTW, I hope all is progressing nicely for you and yours.
All The Best Howard
Thanks Miles...kids are much better. I'm hanging in there.
And all the best right back atcha.
right on!
where is his clark gable gambler mustache when you need
it most, lol.
lol, I bet you wish you were that "cold wind" blowing into his nighttime bedroom.
Beautiful sarcasm. I'm surprised that so many people didn't get it.
gross needs to blow his candle out....0% interest rates are a prescription for more problems not the least of which is capital destruction....artificial interest rates are price warping and a full fledged disaster....
Same shoes, at least SRS is still around 10, but the mgm byd and lvs short was another missed over here. Any bounce this week will def enter those.
Bill Gross knows as much about the stock market as Bill Miller knows about the bond market. The rally ain't over until the liquidity dries up, and that won't be for some time. Bill should keep talking up his book.
Well lets see, if the stock market goes down, it almost always means bond prices go up. And that's how PIMCO talks it's book now that his fund inflows are most likely slowing down and they've loaded up on every government backed issue out there. Ain't it nice to be Bill.
Gross grosses me out. And I know many fine people that work for him...but Bill, he's... creepy.
It's all crap and we all know it. Everywhere we turn, we find a cold wind blow(ing) into our bedrooms. We all know it's coming, we all know it's going to hurt - I think I'd rather be water-boarded then look into the future. Let's just get it over with, the slow burn is close to unbearable.
How many of us will be left after "A cold wind from the future blows into my (our) nighttime bedroom(s)" ?
What if, after all of the FED/Treasury/Legislative actions to deleverage, residential real estate prices start to fall again. The all out effort to price stabilize this asset class turns out to be unworkable. The old play book was being used, but the fundamental makeup of the American market has changed. What happens next?
Perhaps it will be called, the recoveryless recovery???? All that counts for the politicians is the GDP number, no matter how much is smoke and mirrors.
Bill Gross did not get very specific in the Gov/FED programs that may be linked to market action. He should have been clearer that, historically the market was a sign post on the road to economic recovery. But, due to massive Government involvement in the private sector, the sign post is blank, no writing or symbols. The economic climate is one of dislocation, the unlinking of market to economy.
Allow me another brief observation. Roughly speaking the rally started around the time of the FED 300B long T buy (interest rate stabilization) began. So when this program comes to an end (this week) so does the rally? Is it the psychological straw that breaks the camel's back?
Then again, how can any blatant QE program be viewed as a positive for any nation? What happens if the great FED/Treasury debt deleverage experiment fails. How do you hide an economic collapse behind bogus GDP numbers?
Perhaps we enter a period of nonstimulus stimulus. Call it, the revitalize america bill, or homeland housing health plan, or the good neighbor initiative. It will not be called stimulus, or relief or reform, it needs a happy, fun, unspending kind of name.
You have to wonder how much he knows or has calculated in terms of Fed liquidity that seems to be driving this market. The Chinese put the Fed between a rock and a hard place by warning them not to inflate their way out of debt by printing more money, while the banks who are watching liquidity dry up from Mark-to-myth while asking the fed for more and more cash against these assets that are STILL sinking in value .
Maybe they were going to have to make a choice between the banks or the market. They took a huge risk there back in March. While there is movement, it must be like watching the paint dry for all involved.
Just thinking of the anecdotal evidence of liquidity problems at the banks along with large bond auctions ( that apparently did well ( but I'll wait till someone who knows more define 'well') along with the displeasure of our foreign creditors over our new money printing industry .
A Chic-Fil-A add. A cow telling people to eat more chicken. Bill Gross telling people to buy more bonds and sell some stocks. Somehow I am not surprised.
Yes. True. But somehow I think this time chicken is indeed better for you.
I called the market top last week. To. The. Day.
Right here, on Zero Hedge, on the "Buy Iraqi Stocks" thread. That was the sell signal.
LOL, when Mr. Anonymous (probably some 19 year old gunning stocks in the basement) came out and said there will be no more "cliff-diving", right?
The rally ends when 99.9% of bears have capitulated , and the next day the fed announces he is raising rates, because really the fed is the ultimate bear with his interest rate setting, he sets it low because he thinks the economy sucks, when the fed bear capitulates thats when the rally ends
You just know they're going to produce a great GDP number tomorrow and the S&P opens up ten points at a minimum. Bill Gross is a great contra-indicator of the stock market.
Actually the vampire squid hasn't sounded out their clients unlike the last jobs report, so the GDP report could indeed be a good one; so far only the Brits have failed to massage their numbers sufficiently to beat guesstimates. But then again, the expected 3Q inventories correction did not take place, and retail sales have again faltered in Sep after Cash fC expired. All that remains to fix the broken stock market then would be a good hand job to round up any stray decimals, like moving a 1.01% growth to 2%. That's the only way to beat, I guess.
He nails it with this paragraph:
Let me start out by summarizing a long-standing PIMCO thesis:
The U.S. and most other G-7 economies have been signifcantly and artifcially infuenced by asset price appreciation for decades. Stock and home prices went up then consumers liquefed and spent the capital gains either by borrowing against them or selling outright. Growth, in other words, was infuenced on the upside by leverage, securitization, and the belief that wealth creation was a function of asset appreciation as opposed to the production of goods and services. American and other similarly addicted global citizens long ago learned to focus on markets as opposed to the economic foundation behind them.
Taze Me Not-
A great takeaway and an interesting perspective. The last sentence basically states that we have lost track of all fundamentals (fundamental analysis) and instead focused on the movements of the markets (technicals).
Much like the bankers supply a commodity (money out of thin air and now they want to create a carbon tax to trade that thin air CO2) and have somehow managed to cripple all industry just because the government doesn't manage its own money supply (tail wagging the dog), the correlation/causation between GDP and the market has become similarly twisted - with the market somehow being claimed to lead GDP. The tail does not wag the dog, but this con might buy some time.
Gross' thoughts on his own mortality are rather surprising in an investment newsletter, but appropos to our time when immense wealth or celebrity seems to convey an assumed concomitant philosophical or political expertise. At the very least it provides the soapbox. I was reminded of a poem by W.B. Yeats regarding life's choices viewed from the back end:
The intellect of man is forced to choose
Perfection of the life, or of the work,
And if it take the second must refuse
A heavenly mansion, raging in the dark.
When all that story’s finished, what’s the news?
In luck or out, the toil has left its mark;
That old perplexity, an empty purse,
Or the day’s vanity, the night’s remorse
My indicator for the USD is still giving bullish warnings.
DOW/SP500 daily chart showing bearish divergence.
Will USD rally when bear market rally ends ?
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
If those of us are right about the banks and broker/dealers taking advantage of free money to buy stocks and then using those stocks as collateral to buy more stocks, then this rally might still have legs, as the banks collect dividends, risk free.