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Bill Gross Says May Change Mind On Shorting US Treasuries If Potential For Another Recession
From Reuters, quoting Bill Gross, who previously did not believe in another round of QE:
PIMCO'S GROSS SAYS WILL CHANGE HIS MIND ON SHORTING US TREASURIES IF THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER RECESSION
And of course, another recession will mean more QE, which means more debt monetization, which means that naturally, the first and last buyer for Treasury bonds, the Fed, will be there for ever and ever, which means more fiat printing, which means $5+ trillion in Fed "assets", which means more inflation expectations, etc, etc.
More from Reuters:
PIMCO's Bill Gross, who runs the world's
largest bond fund, said on Friday the only way he would reverse his
"short" position on U.S. government-related bonds is if the United
States heads into another recession.
Since the April 11 news that
Gross turned more bearish on U.S. Treasury debt, reflecting his growing
worries over the country's fiscal deficit and debt burden, Treasury
prices have been soaring.
On Friday Treasury prices fell though after a better than expected U.S. monthly employment report .
Asked Friday Gross told Reuters: "Treasury yields are currently
yielding substantially less than historical averages when compared with
inflation. Perhaps the only justification for a further rally would be
weak economic growth or a future recession that substantially lowered
inflation and inflationary expectations."
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Bill you are such a douche bag.
It's funny, before I even saw this comment, this was the exact thought that came to my mind.
"Another" recession?
Geeze...... these darn recessions are so frequent they come and go like the seasons of the year.
Their has to be QE3! Whos going to buy the 80% bonds that the FED is buying now???????
Anyone.... Anyone, bueller.....Bueller?
Hmmmm.
Absent QE3 we are in a depression w/ todays 10yr rate (now pressin 3.12%) looking good.
With QE3 we are in megaflation w/ potential for hyperflation w/ todays rates ridiculous absent Fed monetization.
Not sure but this seems to have potential for a less than stellar outcome. Also not sure it actually looks like gold smells this will be the next "silver" going to unseen "bubble" heights as "speculators" all pile in for the next ride in the fiat wars???
Seriously, go down the list of speculative manias (bio-tech, high tech, RE/CRE, Oil, food, Silver)...gold is the next in line to be the "new safe haven"...I don't own much but it just has all the makings for the next 200 or 300% run. Then again, fuck if I know.
Plus, Fed, IMF, and CB's can all mark up their holdings to new bubble price. Rich, I tell you, they'll be rich?
Edit - gold maintaining in dollar terms against collapsing Euro...looks bullish as hell for gold???
The bizarre paradox though is that if there is a US recession (i still dont think we left it in 2009 so lets just say a deepening of current problems) there is likely to be more contraction globally. The old adage about when the US sneezing and other countries catching a cold... so that 80% will come from just about everyone as they all go running into the only safe haven they have been taught in a paper World (and at yields well below 3 by then) My belief is that gold will catch a bid with the USD this time - this is probably the last push-pull the Fed can get away with , leaving us wide open for defaults and whatnot in a year or two.
The only difference between this depression and the '30s is the "advancement" of the Link card. If you don't think this is a depression, then imagine what 46 Million people lined up waiting for food would look like. Try to explain how that would look different than all the pictures we've seen of the '30s. That is why, in my opinion, the general people think of it as a depression.
It was depressing to be alive.
Now we have cable and link cards, who needs a job....
And now they are 'Recoverless Recessions'.
I liked the phrase "Treasury yields are currently yielding..."
I third that
now when spreads hit a record, and all the talk is inflation I buy some long term bonds, and that is what the indicators told me.
Now I kept more TBT (ultra short treasuries) around because of gross.
So I did OK and have been well hedged againt losses. but the bastard screwed me as well.
have to remember not to listen to the pros!!
Will this mean the return of "Follow-Da-Gross-Front-Run-Da-Helicopter" play?
Here's where the school yard bully would get my gratitude for kicking the piss out of such a weasel.
Fucking joobag.
He must have been spending some time with Julia Gillard. Australia the land of entitlements. Purge your wealth on drunk idiots!
Would that be the Banksters , PDs those closest to the printer . Are they pulling that same fraud down under?
AUD/USD over par, Being paid to give Birth. You do the math.
The USD/AUD carry trade strips Aussie tax payers of their wealth. Suck it up, mates.
McDs job rally fizzling
Good News!! Big Macs will save the U.S. economy.. as well the consumption of Big Macs will cause the Social Security cut backs to be moot, as life expectancy drops..
a McDs job may help some individually but it will have negligible economic impact - almost no tax
if?
http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/05/news/economy/gas_prices_income_spending/...
LMAO!!! This doesn't get any better. Pimco is the Goldman in fixed. Do the complete opposite at all times
absolute returns! you cant go wrong with letting them decide your financial fate!
Long "TBT"!
Bill Gross went even further, shocking the financial world, saying:
So...why is this guy not declared a terrorist? Here's a wild plan, have all the so-called al Qaeda guys dress in suits, clean cut and go work for JPM or GS. They can threaten, blow up or otherwise fuck with anything and get a get-out-of-jail-free card from the Bernankster anytime they need.
They do that already!
He can stop immediately!!!
Jeffrey Gundlach: 2
Bill Gross: 0
I was thinking the same thing. In what direction have Treasury yields moved since 4/11?
I'd say the pieces are pretty obvious. Recession = QE3 = Surpressed Rates = Sustained High Bond Prices = Bloodbath for Shorting US Treasuries. Not saying I trust the little prick but the stated logic is pretty straight-forward.
But about a month or two after QE3 gets pre-announced, inflation expectations will rise, and Treasuries will fall.......so THEN go short Treasuries.
Evidence? Just look at what happened to the 10 year about two months after both QE1 and QE2 were first announced.
Exactly, rates had the reverse effect when QE2 happened...again long TBT!
with gaap accounting and the gse's inlcuded the budget deficit exceeds $5 trillion per year. fed is buyer of only resort for treasuries.
Just bought another 500 oz. silver. My broker has an 8-week order backlog on Silver Eagles! I bought 500 backdated Maple Leafs to get them sooner. I think the plunge in the Euro drove a lot of levered FX traders out of Silver purchased with Euros, which drove down Silver way below where it will settle. I think we're going to see silver float back up in the 40s pretty quickly. Anyone have thoughts on this thesis?
how do you like them? I dont have any.. I am looking at the maples and the libertados (mexican).. the new libertados with the topless liberty.. hawt! I like the way they look, the mexicans.. the maples are a family buy, canada is family so I feel like I have to buy.
Too early! Asia defies. Make sure you have your margin under control. It will tank, but you could be making much more money. I t/p and saw the h/s break down. I could have done better, but I'm up .25M
A lot of people are talking about a divergence between physical and paper. I don't buy it. Coin shops with an 8 week back order have also ordered additional inventory, so they will attempt to keep their premiums up until they work through their inventories.
Also, if this were the case, Sprott's silver bullion-backed, non-lease fund would have not dropped. You can take physical possession at the end of every month. If this was not the case, then I would agree about divergence.
anyone with real silver in hand for sale is plus spot by $8 - $10 yesterday and $5 to $8 today..
so mid $40's no matter what anyone can buy in the make believe land of paper trading for metal tangibles.
OT Save a little powder. May 9th Monday is another margin hike. wait until tuesday and then back the truck up.
Thanks Cow! I have bought every day! its down! I buy! it is getting nutty price wise though. Yesterday was the worst I have ever had to suffer though! by a long shot!
Whatever it takes to convince Bill to stop dissing Ben's efforts...
Bill is cheerleading as described by his team! raa raa his boom baa! lets go QE3!!!
Things are terrible, we need QE3 to buy my Bonds at a premium over par in the middle of an economic hurricane! I want plus par!
Bill does not speak on anything unless it has been cleared. In house and out of house clearence!
it was either that or anthrax
Well, on an up note, it'll be pretty much a re-run of the past couple years. Like shooting ducks in a barrel, I guess. They'll deal with muni and CRE; more debt they are always willing to do. Meanwhile, internationally the race to the bottom is keeping relative currency values pretty much intact.
Sure, bad things can happen, but I'll keep my silver and . . . trade again?
What's the point of calling shots?
This cue ain't straight in line
Cue ball's made of styrofoam
And no one's got the time
+1 Dead reference
When you're up T/P.
Lost my boots in transit
A pile of smoking leather
Nailed a re-tread to my feet
And prayed for better weather
+47 shows!
Half-step. Mississippi uptown. Too da looooo...
i think we are at a turning point. the ben/banker cabal has run wild w/o check but that may come to an end. the MSM completely ignored the first republican debate last night but Ron Paul spoke prominently about the fed and financial problems. even if he does not win the nomination he will bring increasing pressure and so will the Tea party.
+1
Pimpco's new philosophy:
"I think I'll announce all of my trades before I make them".
Team Tyler does not appear to be skeptical. Must be the metal massacre that has 'em waking and baking.
Since all trades are reported on a monthly basis, and we hope to have the first glimpse over the weekend, we will know for sure what he is doing.
When is Anonymous going to lift The Fed's, JP Morgan's, Goldman Sachs', UBS' & COMEX's greasy and incriminating notes?
No need to wait for the report. I can tell what he's doing -- the same thing he always does: LYING.
TBT still looking weak
"Ruh Roh!". Jane! Get me off this crazy thing!
The bond king shorting bonds. The irony, it burns.
LOL.
Just when you thought he was going somewhere with the whole ponzi talk-- looks like greed/fear still rule these guys' souls.
This kind of content is idiotic, boarding lamestream media. "I'd go to the store to buy more bagels if the bagels I have start to run out".
Enough ZH. Stick to things like CDS activity, Top 50 highest beta companies, Top 50 government companies, flash crashes, etc.
The infinite growth paradigm is over--you're silly little markets are toast...
How does one respond to the argument that the dollar will soar in value as bubbles burst around the globe, because of the tens of trillions of USD denominated private financial debt all over the world. As borrowing collapses and people are forced to pay back that USD-denominated debt, won't that make the dollar and treasuries highly sought-after, the way it did after the panic of 1873. As president U.S. Grant said of that event:
"The experience of the present panic has proven that the currency of the country, based, as it is, upon the credit of the country, is the best that has ever been devised. Usually in times of such trials currency has become worthless, or so much depreciated in value as to inflate the values of all the necessaries of life as compared with the currency. Everyone holding it has been anxious to dispose of it on any terms. Now we witness the reverse. Holders of currency hoard it as they did gold in former experiences of a like nature."
Yes on all fronts. Be forewarned though, you are not welcome in this arena. For whatever reason, most folks just don't see it like this. The only other outcome would be default. That would be inflationary.
Because deflation in a fiat system is only possible if TPTB want it. Thats what you are missing. The FED can give $1million to every man woman and child if they want to. I doubt we would have deflation in that scenario. If they see deflation as a better outcome than other possibilities then we could have it, but Bernank is explicit in that he sees deflation as the worst outcome.
Was debt/GDP at 114% in 1873?
No one will be 'forced' to pay back something that they can't. They default, and faith in the currency is lost.
"No one will be 'forced' to pay back something that they can't."
Bullsheet. Debt prisons are already making a comeback around the world
Well, then they better break ground on a prison big enough to hold 300,000,000 people. Because the Banksters ran away with the loot and left working class with the debt.
Ha ha. And Paulsen started it all by warning "We have no choice. We can't let the banks collapse." So only the working class got crushed and the bankers sailed away on their yachts. This can only end in some sort of MadMax scenario.
Have you been to the airport for an international flight lately? Have you met any TSA agents while there?
You're wrong, it can end the same way that FDR sold the American people down the river before with the Federal Government stepping in once everything is fucked and providing that so called stability while 7 Million either starve to death or are eaten by situational cannabal's.
Never assume the Government need's money to keep functioning. They own stockpiles of essentials, and farms. Never assume that they would willingly give up their power for anything either.
They will never give up their power. Case in point: Zimbabwe. The people who created the mess, are still holding the reins over there. Won't be any different in any other country. Protect yourself. Be your own central bank. Don't go into debt (not right now, anyway).
Maybe this has been the plan all along...
1) Set high inflation expectations (check)
2) Scare everyone out of dollars into any high risk assets )check)
3) Buy your own bonds at higher yields (check)
4) Everyone spends all the fiat (check)
5) Burn it down (in process)
6) Scare everyone back into bonds at low yields (coming soon)
7) All assets deflate (in process)
8) Impoverish all taxpayers (in process)
9) Forced liquidations of everything (coming soon)
10) Banks buy all assets (ready in the wings with $1.2 trillion Bernanke bucks)
666) Ben fires back up the presses to create massive inflation but this time distributes more debt to the people via uncollected taxes from their unborn children-debt slaves (QE 3.X)
Banks Win, Fed Wins, Government Wins = People Lose!
Robslob, I believe you have nailed it. Count Gross as a former contrarian indicator and now irrelevant since he's shown his hand.
Shorting Treasuries is about as dumb an idea as buying silver right now. Sorry, I love silver and will buy more, but they're not done yet. Watch as today's NFP-mania induced rally fizzles. Monday a resumption of the commodity crash, though at a more relaxed pace, taking out anyone who thought it was just a three or four-day or, in the case of oil, a one-day event.
TPTB are just getting warmed up, kiddos.
This "Robslob, I believe you have nailed it"
and this "Shorting Treasuries is about as dumb an idea "
don't reconcile with where we are in robslob's thesis. You want to OWN treasuries just about now. See #6 and #7
Did people have credit cards in 1873 and trade electronically? Just to point out most people had coins and paper then only or whatever you owned. Hell, Las Vegas didn't even exist.
Now plastic is used way more than paper (and that probably goes for grocery bags too).
The Fed also wasn't debasing paper then either.
That was also a time of reconstruction after massive destruction of property and lives from the Civil War (even though it ended in 1865). Everything was harder to come by.
A depression followed 1873 and Grant was criticized for his response to it. He was a general and leader of men not a financier or entrepreneur; he died broke.
ask yourselves who the levered parties are, what their political clout is, and who was in the front of the tits up line in 2008 when we saw a real threat of that.
Scarce dollars cease to become useful as currency
...and now the 10 year is down to 3.14
Short treasuries...now! No, ..Now! Wait, go long! Now! No.....wait.....Now! no, Then!
lmao! With >20% unemployment and a workforce morphing into PT workers and it's still 'if' we head to recession?? You can't make this stuff up...
It's such a queer thought experiment the Fed has put on us. I understand that markets do not equal the economy but when the outlook is foreboding of a recession and you're thinking about buying stocks because the Fed is going to print money it's time to start re-evaluating what we want our monetary regime to be.
Maybe it's time for a debt jubilee 'cause this. shit. is. fucked. up.
Bob-a-reeno-
agreed that to invest you now need to think of the natural outcome, think of the counter measure for that next state, and make that investment not on what should happen but what will happen due to the countermeasures...and so on and so on.
Just don't ever stop to think about the end game...
Flash crash BITCHEZ! One yr anniversary. Its the chinese hackers. The make out like bandits, $ up, tens up, commods down.
who didnt see this flip flop coming from Bill
Hah hah!
Neverending butt-hurtedness from Newport Beach.
Why don't you go jump in your moat, Gross. What a fucking tool.
Recession, what recession.........did something change?
Well it might go to 2.75...but so what. Gross, who can be a snivelling Big Media diva with a chanteuse voice (he will never be the man his mother was) is right.
He is not chasing a faux rally with his billion $ book, because the Chinese or any foreign Gov't could unload their pile of stinikin' shiite 30 yr's at anytime.
Under 3.00, one has to look for a level to short.
He is not wrong and ~300 bps has to make you think about shorting.
He's still a douche. Obnoxious, high pitched douche.
Think of it this way. The Chinese are coming to Washington to talk currency. How's inflation in China? Rather high? What to do when monetary policy is not your own, since you're pegged? Hmmm.
They are running out of bullets in Asia and inflation is a war of attrition. The USD fall has added jobs in manufacturing, even if computers and robots have replaced many jobs that will probably not be coming back. Added jobs, but not enough. Meanwhile, back in Gotham City, gasoline prices may kill everything except McDonalds (nothing can kill McDonald's?). Gasoline prices lead to demand destruction as well as reduction in overall consumer spending. It's a form of tightening and can / will lead to a recession. Add to that the end of growth in the FED's balance sheet, which is another form of tightening. But as far as QE x is concerned, only after another recession and more time down the road will that be possible.
Looks like Mr. Bill Gross had his eye off the ball on this one. The five fingers spoke to the face and he is now seeking pennance in the house of Timmeh ...
Meaning he bought yesterday knowing QE3 is coming.
My clock is cooked. 16 hours over the South Pacific does wonders. Lets cook Fox News! Let me pick an article first. Lets mess with the Middle East. The Syria thread looks fun. Have fun.
We’ve all heard of the fashion police but probably assumed that was just a figure of speech. It turns out, however, that if you don’t have the bureaucratic blessing of a license and yet deign to select drapes, recommend paintings, or (horrors!) place Persian rugs and decorative partitions for a non-residence in Florida, you could be sent to prison for up to one year. Further, if you hire a person without a license to do these things for you, both of you could be sent to prison for up to one year. Sadly, this is not a joke.
http://blog.heritage.org/2011/05/05/floridas-fashion-police/#more-58826
Bill is not saying anything except what is pre-approved, if we can send people to prison for interior design.. I am sure Bill would NOT! Risk his Trillions! over his ego / mouth. He doent strike me as that kind of dumb.
Republican-controlled committee voted for a 18-month delay of regulations intended to reduce risk in OTC derivatives. http://goo.gl/4IYGP
Senate trying to hide Campaign Contribution Monies from Government Contractors with the Argument “Free Speech” LMFAO!! http://goo.gl/35V9l
Jesus. Meet the New Boss, same as the Old Boss.
Same same Front Men for the Banksters.
If it isn't Obama shoving the Most Painful Dildo up our ass for the War Criminals on the Street who got him elected, it's the PorkBuffet Republicans who claim they were running against "Big Gummint".
Right then, tar, feathers, boiling oil?
It all feels so 1930s, but the Ponzi, now, must go on - until it can't.
Ergo:
Medicare
Social Security
Disability
SNAP
Credit Cards
Unemployment Insurance
Squatters Household Income Boost
if the Government would collect taxes for the people who make Billions every quarter.. then we could afford this shit.
we dont need austerity for the poor who dont have anything, we need taxes collected from the top 1% of corporations!
The 10 Biggest Tax Cheater in the United States of America! Wonder why we can Not Afford anything? Stop Wondering Why! http://goo.gl/PuoLH
http://goo.gl/cgg4O General Electric $14.2 Billion in Profits, Pays $0 in U.S. Taxes
$39M Dollar Lobby in 2010 $14B in Profits =’s NO TAXES PAID! http://goo.gl/rZLDY
$10 billion sale of F.D.I.C.-backed debt http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2009/01/06/ge-capital-begins-10-billion-debt-sale/
The Gang of 6 Raising the Retirement Age & Reducing Social Security Benefits http://goo.gl/Aix0y / http://goo.gl/m8QMq All for the Surplus $
JP Morgan says 100’s Town’s & City’s in U.S. Won’t ‘Make It’ Out of Debt Crisis http://goo.gl/HO8Xb / http://goo.gl/L9Gjd So expect a Corporate Land Grab!
http://goo.gl/zacwI 12 Corporations who Spent $1 Billion to Bribe the Lobby Whores into a 0% Tax Bracket thru Loopholes!
A Great! Description of How Much More! the Poor Pay!! in Taxes as Opposed to the Rich! http://goo.gl/soFL5
So with all this Money being made and no one hiring and no one paying taxes.. but we need austerity? are you sure? or is that just a wet dream come true for you? shit on the little people?
Well now....
While true that Gross has a good job....he is also part of what is wrong with the system....ie BlackRock etc.....
Number one....just what are the absolute returns produced by his firm´s efforts....
Number 2....is Gross pretty close to information....everyone in the market does not have.....
You can figure out the rest.....
Take your ponzi fiat cockfest and stick it up your bollocks.
Why would anyone listen to someone who clearly doesn't understand how the monetary system of a currency issuer works. The US has no chance of default, and the treasury market clearly shows this. All you debt fear mongerers are clearly being proven wrong by the treasury market. Learn the system you choose to play in!
Really? Wouldnt a recession immediatley bring up the thought that we may not grow out our debt problems which should cause rates to rise. Also another recession means more dollar devaluation so why would investors run to buy 10 and 30 years with more dollar devaluation around the corner in a recession? Seems like rate are due to go up either way soon, good or bad economy rates should rise IMO.
I dunno, but the past few days have felt strangely similar to 2008. Liquidity and solvency are still issues that have NOT BEEN RESOLVED.
gotta love the flip-flops.
The Tipping Point Anti-Matter Algorithm
The architects were there when the global IC chip was hatched, including the launch of Microsoft, global HR, regionalization, and compliance best-business practices, “registering” all the errors and inserting the code necessary to engage at specific threshold values.
When I go into a town, I begin with my low talent resume and work up to the high talent resume, measuring uptake on the local economic motor. The software tracks my entry and participation, to match outcomes versus the local divide and conquer metrics (male vs female, white vs Hispanic, etc); compliance vs performance; rent rates, etc. It also tracks, by algebraic reduction and expansion, the participants, from decision makers to implementers, to make the web transparent. It rewards real economic performance and penalizes divide and conquer compliance (by speeding up the computers and reducing real cash flow).
If you want your economy to improve, get rid of divide and conquer, adopt real performance metrics, adjust rents, and re-work the computers to serve humans instead of the other way around. It’s not really rocket science. Lower rents, increase pay, and improve quality of life for high performers, to attract more high performers.
Economies are being judged on their ability to learn, which is why all the old economies are failing. The sexists cannot learn, because they are herd animals, locking each other into repetition, with fear of change. All they can do is stop you from learning, if you let them. Stay busy acquiring adaptive skills, and let them run circles around you, until they blow up their system, and they always do. That’s what loads the spring, their denial and your refusal to chase their money. They must have your intelligence; you do not need them. The longer it takes them to blow up, the higher your quality of life and the longer it lasts, if you are prepared to take advantage of the leverage at tipping point.
To adjust a black hole, adjust its focal point. To add black holes, superimpose their focal points. DC does have a frequency. Backlash is everything in quantum physics. The difference is relativity, which nets out time. When you are doing something you love, time passes quickly. Sexists hate themselves, and, therefore, view everyone else as competition, ensuring scarcity, in purgatory. Misery loves company ; don't give it any, but let it see you.
RElativity
You want to create delay mechanism errors that fill the buffer, but do not stop the machine, until you determine the size and nature of the buffer, to reach the buffer of buffers (to trigger the flip-flop).
not sure if the 2008 recession ever ended considering the govt debt that is created monthly since then .... if qe2 ends and recession appears this would confirm first statement ???
i really like tylers comments - would be nice if there was less swearing, unfunny jokes? , repetitive and argumentative posts, - so that it is easier to find the smart peoples comments .. thx in advance
No swearing, go fucking ask the neighbors over for milk and cookies, so you can talk about Idol or hockey.
Our way of life is in grave danger and you are worried about pollyanna bullshit.
Go back to being a grandma or something. THe adults here are pissed off beyond reproach.
Hey manitoba...its your world and we just live in it. Now F#@K OFF !
Hehe....
By another recession I think he just means the dot-com depression our central planners didn't let happen ten years ago.
BTFD!
It's all about Banks, Gold, Silver and Oil.
Did Barry find Big Foot yet?
BOOYAAH!
PIMCO'S GROSS SAYS COKE BETTER THAN PEPSI