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Bill Miller Says Large Caps "Once In A Lifetime" Buying Opportunity.... And He Has Many Of Them To Sell To You

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Bill Miller says: "U.S. large capitalization stocks represent a once in a lifetime opportunity in my opinion to buy the best quality companies in the world at bargain prices. The last time they were this cheap relative to bonds was 1951." That's funny, because according to our regression analysis (recreated below), the fair value of stocks is 750. But who needs facts when you have propaganda and a massively underwater stock position to offload. Bill Miller's desperation letter to sucker mom and pops in buying his dangling tech holdings can be found below, but here is a quick refutation of his point, which we discussed as recently as three weeks ago. And just in case there is any confusion, the dividend yield on the S&P compared to that of 10 Year Bonds, implies a fair value for the S&P of... 655! Perhaps Bill was experiencing a "Warren Buffett" moment and actually meant stocks are a once in a lifetime opportunity to short?

Bond Yields Imply The Fair Value Of The S&P Is 750

One of the less discussed topics by the propaganda machine is that
with bond yields approaching record yields, and in the case of the 2Y below
them
, the S&P has no place trading over 1,000. There was a
time when bonds and stocks would correlate, and as bond prices surged,
equities would plunge and vice versa. Now that we live in HFT days where
stock values are completely disconnected from fundamentals, and even
the bond market, courtesy of the Fed's seemingly endless market
interference,  it makes sense to extrapolate what the fair value of
stocks would be implied purely based on bond yields stripping away for
the Fed. Attached we present a very simple regression analysis between
simple 10 year spreads and the S&P, and the 2s10s (steepness between
the 2 and 10 Year) and the S&P. What both analyses indicate is that
stocks are approximately 30% overvalued, at least based on historical
regression patterns relying on yields to imply stock prices. Yet even
though this analysis is purely statistical, here is a simple extension:
with US stocks at about $13 trillion in market cap, if one assumes the
suggested 30% haircut the result is $9.1 trillion in fair market value.
Considering that the Fed has pumped $2.5 trillion in the form of
monetary stimulus, and Obama's various fiscal stimuli now amount to just
over $1 trillion, that explains the delta. Bonds are implying where
stocks should be almost to the dot, absent the $3.5 trillion pumped into
stocks by the administration and the Chairman. Fair value of
stocks, when stripped away from the printer and Congress, is 750.

Below is a regression of the S&P to the 10 Year:

And this is a regression of the
2s10s to the S&P:

Both imply stocks are overpriced
between 25 and 35%. And the Fed will do everything in its power for
stocks to prevent going back down to their fair value of 750, which
would nullify the entire impact of both monetary and fiscal
intervention. Yet should it fail, look for the next $2.5 trillion in QE
to push stock up once again to a 25% overvalued level compared to where
bonds should be. Of course, should the Fed admit defeat and print, bond
yields will likely drop thus resetting the baseline lower once again. We
wish our Central Banking overlords all the luck in the world as the
continues their attempts to fool US investors that stocks are even
remotely fairly priced. We, on the other hand, will stick with the
"alternative" central bank, which more and more are turning to - gold.

And just in case there is any confusion on how overrated stocks are, here is a comparison of 10 Year Yields versus the S&P dividend yield of 2.03%.

For those unsure how to read the chart, assuming static yields, for 10 Year UST bond yields to imply the dividend yield on the S&P is fair, the price of stocks has to drop from 1083 to.... 655!

In other words, please completely ignore the letter below, from yet another run of the mill book pusher.

Bill Miller letter:

 

 

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Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:46 | 481178 Muir
Muir's picture

 

Wow! You enjoy slapping Leo around and making him your bitch don't you?

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:10 | 481499 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

Around here.....LEO is EVERYONE'S BITCH!!!!

 

 

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:03 | 481651 huntergvl
huntergvl's picture

Bill Mason is my favorite punching bag. He represents everything that is wrong with Big name, Highly paid, Bull run beneficiaries.

He's a star as long as the market never rolls over. I daresay if, WE, all bet our entire portfolios long, long, long, we'd have done magnificent too. Right up until 2007, when the market actually went DOWN, or to use a Buffett euphemism, the tide went out, and Mason was standing in squishy sand, buck naked.

The only thing he has to offer is a surprise to those of us who watched him lose 90% of his clien't money. The surprise is, anyone still listens to him, or lets them manage their money. I think you have to go, PT Barnum, for that to make sense.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:52 | 481192 ATG
ATG's picture

With 0.3% cash, is it possible BM is going out on a limb touting his own book?

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:56 | 481201 somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture

This neanderthal BM should just sneak out of investor's sight quietly and take what little reputation he has left home to his wife.  He lost my wife boatloads of money in her retirement account over the last two years!

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:11 | 481239 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

So, if he's hit with some redemptions in a down market, his fund will have to liquidate, causing more selling pressure on his stocks? Wonder if he will have to put up some gates as the redemptions flow in...

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:24 | 481276 somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture

I begged and pleaded, and got my wife to sell out at 36 after the bounce back from 20.  Looking at his current fund holdings, it is ripe for future liquidation (and extinction).  If I were BM, I would buy some insurance on Bernie the copter pilot, because that is the only thing keeping his financial holding afloat!

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:57 | 481448 PuppetRepubl1c
PuppetRepubl1c's picture

WOW no response from Leo i guess, that 1 star fund rating is abysmal!

 

anyone can make money when a bubble is inflating, only when the bubble collapses can the wheat be separated from the chaff

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:43 | 481169 Muir
Muir's picture

Gen. Yevgraf Zhivago:I did admire him, but I didn't think he was a better man. Besides, I've executed better men than me with a small pistol.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:47 | 481179 somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture

And the revered Bill Miller fund (LMVTX) is exactly the same place that it was 12 years ago?!?!?!?!  What has beating the SPX 16 straight years gotten him and his investors???

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:52 | 481191 trav7777
trav7777's picture

nowhere!!!

But look around you, company after company has a company-wide raise freeze in effect and yet the execs at the top continue to get MASSIVE raises.

It got the investors nowhere, but the execs?  It made them filthy rich!  In many cases, execs get bonused to "cut costs," and that means laying off workers (the little people).

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:13 | 481237 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Agreed. Of course that's the scam. It's all about relative performance, meaning relative to your peers, not your clients. As long as you outperform your peers, you get a bonus.

How about we set compensation this way. You only make money when your clients make money. Bad year for your clients, bad year for you, as in zero compensation. Good year the next year for your clients? Good. Once you make up for what you lost last year, then you can start paying yourself.

I promise you if this was instituted (not going to happen) the way Wall Street screws the customer would change and hopefully go away. Or at least it would become obvious. And that's the kicker. Because the true purpose behind Wall Street business practices is to hide the screwing, not to stop the screwing.

My broker dealer limits what I can rebate to my clients. But if I'm selling a position that lost the client money, I do the trade at cost with no markup. Which means I actually lose after my expenses. The only money charged to the client is the B/D charges. It changes the perspective when one must be financially responsible for bad performance.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:12 | 481690 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

The AAA Rated crowd can only feed on themselves for so long... minus any real organic growth... the wonderful bonus season(s) will surely come to and end.

 

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:44 | 481823 covert
covert's picture

amen and well said.

got it exactly right!

covert2.wordpress.com

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:48 | 481183 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Too bad he went back to his playbook one more time and loaded up on the GSE's, financials, etc. right before the 2008 meltdown. 

He's got a good long-term track record with a great streak. Granted. But there was no mention of the massive debt overhang across every sector of society. Of many of the negative macro elements hanging out there - demographics, housing, pension under-fundings, muni austerity, etc., etc.

Just buying stocks because they have good dividend yields (what happens when taxes go to 39.6% on dividends) and are priced at x P/E doesn't cut it for me. Things can always get cheaper. 

The "math is the math" and IMHO there are a few that will trump his. 

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:58 | 481205 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

I take part of my comment back. Since 2000 his fund has under-performed SPY by roughly 25% (SPY -24%, LMVTX - 53%). His mutual fund now has a one-star rating from Morningstar. 

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:49 | 481185 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Leo you do presumably realize that Bernie Madoff beat the S&P for 30 years in a row?

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:37 | 481240 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Well if Bernie never actually invested the money he didn't beat anything for 30 years except the SEC.

BM's 16 years may have only been a right place, right time story but it's still a pretty nice record, even for that period. Given some of his more recent stunts however, like riding Bear Stearns all the way down the hill, he does seem a little clueless in the macro and systemic risks department - which is sort of all that maters these days.

I wouldn't want to be long the SPX here either but if I had to own one stock I think one could do a lot worse than XOM.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:14 | 481249 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Ouch, that's gonna leave a mark.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 22:47 | 482633 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

TD your IT boys should re-vamp the junk system.

While 20 junks probably should remove whatever drivel is posted, sometimes (most of the time when its bullshit coming from Leo) its good for a laugh. In this case i can only assume his comment said something along the lines of !buy solars! or how he's gay for BM; but i just want to be sure.

Maybe 50 junks? Maybe a big FAIL in faded letters going across the length of the comment?

 

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:35 | 481342 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Tyler,

One is a crooked thief and the other takes concentrated positions on stocks/ sectors when he has conviction. The only thing Bill Miller has in common with Bernie Madoff is his initials.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:00 | 481458 Muir
Muir's picture

His conviction has a high correlation with the DOW. 

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:16 | 481523 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Sorry, Leo. I try not to junk you even though I think you're a sunshine-pumping, rearview-looking buffoon. But this comment deserves it JUNK status.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:37 | 481572 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Yeah, while most portfolio managers are closet indexers, at least guys like Bill Miller have guts to take concentrated positions when they have conviction. He got wiped in 2008, but so did many other smart managers. You guys can bash him all you want, but his track record is impressive, even if it was during a bull market.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:49 | 481600 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

But if they got wiped out in 2008, they weren't "smart"  money managers.

Todd Harrison's maxim that has served me well for many years now:

discipline trumps conviction.

 

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 18:51 | 482119 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

I apologize for getting carried away, Leo. Buffoon was too harsh of a term.

Stock shill, maybe, but not buffoon. Sorry.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 22:51 | 482644 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Very simply, no.

A + track record during a bull market is not something impressive.

PMs that made money in 08, 09. Sure, that was impressive.

From '03-07? Just no.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:36 | 481347 IE
IE's picture

ROFL!

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:15 | 481698 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Leo,

Dear, Sweet and Fact Quoting Leo… why would you for even one second think that numerical fact has a home here? Readership, butts in the seats are what advertisers want… thusly the once tried and true beacon of truth has been twisted into a corporatized spin machine, give the people what they want site.

16 years of beating the S&P with the numbers to back it up? And you expected the mob here to have an interest in such poppy cock?

Sincerely, JW

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:50 | 481187 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea sure Leo, and any trader with a trained monkey throwing darts at a stock page beat the S&P thru the bubble decade, so what?

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:53 | 481194 BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

Tiny sample.  Time interval bias.  Go back to highschool.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:54 | 481196 Deep
Deep's picture

let's see, he caught the biggest bull market in history, but lost I think close to 60% in one year in 2008,

that one year runined his whole 5,10,15yr returns

you fucking idiot LEO

keep respecting IDIOTS

 

 

 

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:15 | 481520 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

While I junked you on your personal tirade against Leo, I do agree with your first statement to Leo. 

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:37 | 481571 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

The one thing you absolutely must do is to avoid the Big Loss.

The way I look at it is:

Say for argument's sake the old saw about the S&P returning 10% annually over many decades is true.

How many traders do you know who can average 60% winners, year in and year out, over many decades? Certainly no retail investor, nor any vehicle that a retail investor can buy.

If you did average 60% winners, then you would have to average +20% on winning trades AND your losses on the 40% losers, plus slippage and commissions, must be less than 5% for you to outperform that long-term average.

Without leverage, as for the retail investor, it's almost impossible, except in bull markets. It's critical not to allow a bear market to take your capital.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:04 | 481216 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

The only thing that deserves respect is the black swan.

 

quoted because it looks like the comment is going to be junked away quickly:

by Leo Kolivakis
on Wed, 07/21/2010 - 10:36
#481148


Let's see, Bill Miller beat the S&P 500 16 years in a row, and what's your track record son? Respect.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:34 | 481339 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Gold beat the S&P 10 years in a row, and doesn't charge a management fee or commission. Respect!

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:39 | 481359 emsolý
emsolý's picture

beating the S&P500 and making money are two different pairs of shoes, are they not?

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:07 | 481471 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

They always revert to the mean.

Whenever someone talks about Bill Miller's genius, I think specifically of the Lindner fund that beat the S&P 11 years in a row from the mid-70s to the mid-80s. Over the next 20 years, the S&P returned something like 12.5% and Lindner returned 4%, never outperforming the S&P during the decade of the 90s.

The trick was to have identified in 1990 the criteria that would allow Miller to outperform, not to wait for 15 years for confirmation. How could you have done that? 

Also, maybe industry people jerk off to 'overperformance', but I can't feed anyone with it. I don't know how to account for the dividends, but it looks like his NAV is just about where it was in 1997. Flat for years, while the dollar got killed in the last 10.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:14 | 481518 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Screw Bill Miller. He's a fat, old, arrogant douchebag just like Mark Haines.

Ooohh, Wowwww. He had great performance during the greatest, never-to-be-repeated bull market of all time. I'm not impressed. 

Same with Buffett. Fuck him, too. Take me back to 1962 and give me $100,000. I'd probably amass a tidy little sum, also.

Old, arrogant douchebags; both of them.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:00 | 481641 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Leo,

Dear, Sweet and Fact Quoting Leo… why would you for even one second think that numerical fact has a home here? Readership, butts in the seats are what advertisers want… thusly the once tried and true beacon of truth has been twisted into a corporatized spin machine, give the people what they want site.

16 years of beating the S&P with the numbers to back it up? And you expected the mob here to have an interest in such poppy cock?

Sincerely, JW

 

by somethingisrotten
on Wed, 07/21/2010 - 12:56
#481201

 

This *** “Neanderthal” *** BM should just sneak out of investor's sight quietly and take what little reputation he has left home to his wife.  He lost my wife boatloads of money in her retirement account over the last two years!

 

somethingisrotten,

I have described how in the greatest amount of detail how the absolute funds where a piggy bank that was smashed open to the Benefit of all AAA Rated Corps of the land…

It really is not that hard to figure out.

Maybe you should go buy gold… at close to historic price heights? To hedge your losses?

If you would have bought B of A stock at $5 bucks(ish) a share and had a 100% stop order and a 50% buy back order standing… and never touched the account again… you would have realized 500% +++ plus gains. Please anyone of you Geniuses that would like to check my math feel free it’s all in the public domain.  

But back to you specifically “somethingisrotten”… your wife is a loser because you are a loser, it really isn’t the market… It is really the fact that you are stupid and thusly got fleeced, rightly so… a fool and their money are soon parted. I did Not come up with that lil nugget of a saying so don’t bother being upset with me, because you let your wife lose monies. If you are the man of the house and there is a problem in your house… then it’s your problem. It really isn’t anyone’s Problem but yours. Unless, of course you would like to blame me? Or Bush or Obama or the Absolute Fund selling Shyster who said all the right things, used all the 5th avenue approved catch phrases to create a warm fuzzy feeling while the test group brought down the payout to a reasonable 5% - 6% so that the Sheepeople would assume it was a real deal or not some type of robber baron, unfair enrichment scam…

 

Do yourself a favor, buy low and sell high… and if your wife is more comfortable with a stranger handling her money than you… well that one of those problems that is in your house that belongs to you… that’s yours to fix or not?

 

There is plenty of upside in the market… I would wait a month or after the market comes down yet a bit more… and then buy in at the lows, take a fairly active stance trading in and out of AAA Rated Stocks with reasonable limits. 30% swings in B of A seems like a fire and forget for a lack luster personality like yourself.

 

Please, no need to thank me for dumbing it down enough even for you to understand.

 

Or… Buy Gold! Which I would clearly not recommend considering your disposable income was wiped out by Bush and you can no longer afford to be wrong if you want to retire in this lifetime? I guess if you are still liquid your wife can always divorce you and take half of yours shit to then invest it with some idiot who would blow it, again? Heres some words to live by, since you may have a bulls eye on your back? Irrevocable Family Trust…

 

Better Luck next time?

JW

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:41 | 481162 Noah Vail
Noah Vail's picture

Who the hell is Bill Miller?

 

Stupidity is as boundless as greed. Soon enough it will all end, always does. What follows is what worries me. Sig Heil.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:45 | 481174 economicmorphine
economicmorphine's picture

Somebody could make an argument that might make me take the long side, I suppose, but the argument that this is the best time since 1951 to buy large caps does not mesh with my Dow chart.  It smacks of desperation.  I don't worship Wall Street guys like a Leo, a hobby I compare to my neighbor's daughter's infatuation with Justin Beiber, but what the hell.  Part of the fun of this game is watching the cucarachas try to wrestle crumbs from each other.  Game on, Wayne!  Game on, Garth!

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:46 | 481177 ATG
ATG's picture

BM got his head shoved hard up his $16 B assets, dropping them to $4 B with a -58% annual performance, when he bought homebuilders and financials all the way down in 2008, illustrating the ultimate value trap he warned about in 2006:

http://registeredrep.com/investing/fixedincome/bill-miller-legg-mason-un...

http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2006/07/27/bill-miller-money-master-...

No wonder LM targeting 20 down from 34...

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?lm

The missing ingredient in the value trap is the presumption of recovery, AKA reversion to the mean or gambler's fallacy...

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:48 | 481182 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Oh yes. The old "stocks are cheap relative to..." schtick.

Where have I heard that before? Maybe back in 1999? "Large cap multi-nationals are cheap relative to tech & telecom."

They are running out of suckers.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:06 | 481659 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Energy or Death!

Kind of like "Cake or Death?"

Energy Stocks! Buy now! Hurry $60 a barrel oil will not last forever... I Promise!

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 21:08 | 482355 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

Well said & an Eddie Izzard quote to boot - Well done Sir!

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:52 | 481190 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Every day is a good day to buy according to those peddling instruments..."Stock prices are low and that means there is great value"..."Stock prices are high means and that means expectations of growth".

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:00 | 481209 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Salespeople peddling their product - just like any other salesperson. Helps when you "believe" in your product. 

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 13:58 | 481206 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Miller has the CNBS cheerleaders trying to pump his recommendations up today....shameless.

You buy, he sells...thats the way we do it.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:00 | 481212 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Miller is a fat idiot.

He, like everyone else, is crying cheap because he has already penciled in a return to systemic growth.

He does not accept nor realize that we are now entering a phase of prolonged contraction.  Stocks are not fucking cheap based upon the forward prospects of the world economy in an oil scarcity climate.  ESPECIALLY stocks that don't pay fucking dividends.

The only way they are cheap is if the ponzi can come back.  The N225 has been cheap for 20 years if you assume it will one day cimb back to its alltime highs

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:04 | 481217 Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

Bond yields are government manipulated and therefore useless as a baseline for determining stock valuations.  Oh yes, stock prices are also government manipulated.  Come to think of it, virtually everything's price is also, to some degree or another.  Hmmm.  It's a rather empowering notion, that there are no true markets for anything, because it means that my opinions are as valuable as anyone else's.  Or as worthless.  Whatever.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:17 | 481526 rmsnickers
rmsnickers's picture

Crap, I am going to have to find a new pic.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:58 | 481631 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Too (two) funny. How random to pick the same guy. 

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:15 | 481699 rmsnickers
rmsnickers's picture

Not that random when you consider who he is....I am surprised half the people here don't use this image :)

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:31 | 481710 Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

That's not just any guy, that's none other than Charles Ponzi himself, patron saint of all moribund western democracies.  This is his mugshot.

Maybe I'll go back to my namesake, General Samsonov, who led the Russian Second Army to annihilation in East Prussia at the start of WW1.  It wasn't really his fault though.  It's quite a fascinating story full of lessons that are applicable today.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:45 | 481830 rmsnickers
rmsnickers's picture

lol, let me know what you decide and I will start looking for new pics if need be.  Actually, I am growing quite fond of Tyler's deer picture.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:03 | 481220 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

from ibankcoin 2008 asshat of the year:

However, in my humble, yet potent opinion, only one man deserves the Asshat of the Year Award for 2008. Without further adieu, let me introduce:

Bill Miller, Retarded Money Manager, Legg Mason

At one time Bill was a good investor. Fuck all of the accolades that erroneously labeled him a “great investor.” For the love of small microchips and green trees, the market was going up, when he was... However, in 2008, the stock Gods gave Bill a steel pipe to the mouth, taxing his Legg Mason flagship fund by more than 56%, according to the most recent data.

Hell, Bill’s whole family of funds is down in the deep 30-40% range, all because he (Bill) is a..., not to be confused with the cesspool in Thailand.

His portfolio is littered with all sorts of stupid shit, from AMZN to C. However, Bill nailed down the Asshat Award for one reason and one reason only: He fucking doubled down on his Freddie Mac position, just prior to it being seized by the government.

Let me clarify. If you recall, at the time Bill “averaged down” in FRE, it was almost a foregone conclusion that the Gov’t was going to takeover FNM/FRE, in order to ’save the world’ part 20. For the love of nuclear bombs and hydrogen fuel, some of the “smart managers” stepped in on FRE bonds or preferred. But Bill, in his infinite asshattishness, stepped in and bought more lowly common stock.

Asshat!

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:04 | 481479 Muir
Muir's picture

I forgot about Fly's post.

I've shorted a couple of the Fly's "oversold" picks and done well.

Though for sure, I've fallen off the chair more than once reading him.

He is unique.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:12 | 481512 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I read his stuff for years but would never invest based on his colorful prose. The Fly is too impatient, he got out of bonds way early, likes to play the 3X etfs, volatility, etc.. It's scary how prescient some of his posts are though. I saved one for almost a year because I couldn't get over how accurate it was. I don't know if he is for real or not but I have always liked his in your face style.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:10 | 481676 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

LOL at this morning he posted that markets are looking good and to not read ZeroHedge, since it is "bad for your portfolio".

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:50 | 481794 Muir
Muir's picture

Oh, I gotta read that one and rub his nose on his favorite pick flupuke.

But as I said: "I've shorteda couple of the Fly's "oversold" picks and done well.

edit: Oh, I gave him a reply (not post-able in ZH)

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:11 | 481890 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I had to go look it up:

 

http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/07/21/mixed-nuts/

 

He's just pissed because zh is kicking his ass traffic-wise.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:21 | 481904 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

actually i can't confirm zh traffic is bigger. they are also mad because zh won't tell them how much traffic they are getting over here:

http://ibankcoin.com/chessnwine/2010/06/28/ibcs-top-finance-blogs-of-the-internet/

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 17:23 | 481908 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Muir says:

July 21, 2010 at 5:13 pm

He knows he insulted brilliance.

Reply
Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:11 | 481227 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

This is perfect short entry here..   qe 2 a mirage. Short em if you can.  900's SP in Aug. then 800's by Sept.

Long Cash and Inverse etf's.

Short everything else.. QE was a Mirage.

 

Big paper sellers..

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:10 | 481233 Justaman
Justaman's picture

Bad attempt at a comb over.  Sorry Bill, your time has passed.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:15 | 481250 GlassHammer
GlassHammer's picture

'Cause I've got stocks in low places
Where the currency drowns
And the market chases my returns away
And I'll be okay
I'm not big on developing places
Think I'll slip on down to the horseraces
Oh, I've got stocks in low places

The song just popped into my head after reading the article. So I had some fun tweaking it a bit. Thanks Garth.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:16 | 481256 techperson
techperson's picture

Tyler, what does this mean in your bond yield/S&P insert?  Sorry, I just didn't get it...

"with bond yields approaching record yields..." What period of history are you talking about?

"as bond prices surge, equities would plunge"  Are you saying lower interest rates are always bad for stock prices?

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:20 | 481272 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

How's this for deep value:  Tangible book value for:

PG = -21B

T= - 32B

VZ= -61B

IBM = -1.4B

TEVA= +2.5B (WOO HOO)

True value of large cap financials:  ???
In other words, there are lots of other valuation metrics that indicate that stocks are overpriced, even with "recovery", because "recovery" prob means much higher interest rates.

Not to mention "Q" and CAPE . . .

 

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:21 | 481274 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

Source for the above Yahoo/Finance (hope they're accurate)

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:27 | 481299 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Yahoo! will tell you that GS & C both have $750B in cash. Read the 10Qs.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:50 | 481407 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Bill Miller, the single largest shareholder of FRE on the day it was put into conservatorship.

Enough said.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 21:11 | 482362 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

Game, Set, Match...& the economy of words...impressive!

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 14:56 | 481437 HitmanVictor
HitmanVictor's picture

How the f*ck is this "once in a lifetime" when they were an even better buy just 12 short months ago???  What an ass clown.  

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:07 | 481492 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Now now, you're not supposed to ask questions. You're just supposed to belly up to the "pay the money manager" window and shut your mouth.

BTW who is the young lady in the avatar and what exactly is she packing?

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 20:37 | 482305 HitmanVictor
HitmanVictor's picture

It's Hit Girl from the movie "Kick Ass".  Not sure what she's packing...a compact HK maybe.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:19 | 481533 Goldenballs
Goldenballs's picture

Hurry,hurry once in a lifetime offer never to be repeated (cos I won,t be here) send all cheques to G.Otto.Go,P.O. box 1,Mogadishu,Somalia, and I,ll send you a lovely certificate you can frame up to look nice in your shithouse and when times get really tough you can use it for something more personal.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:20 | 481535 Goldenballs
Goldenballs's picture

Hurry,hurry once in a lifetime offer never to be repeated (cos I won,t be here) send all cheques to G.Otto.Go,P.O. box 1,Mogadishu,Somalia, and I,ll send you a lovely certificate you can frame up to look nice in your shithouse and when times get really tough you can use it for something more personal.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:43 | 481592 Goldenballs
Goldenballs's picture

Sorry for double post,some kind of cock-up,ponzi scheme,etc,

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:32 | 481554 Prof Gulliver
Prof Gulliver's picture

Now, now, you're being too tough on Bill. He meant it is a once in a lifetime offer if you're a fruit fly.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 15:42 | 481591 dcb
dcb's picture

clearly I am not that smart, but since the s and p was much lower in the spring of last year, I ust assume it is a once in a lifetime chance for people under one year of age.

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 16:21 | 481734 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

Seems like we all like to focus on the macro and over look the micro--can't see the trees from the forest.

Would have made 20X your money starting in 2005 when Apple introduced the iPod.

Look for growth and transformation and revolutions.

Forget the market and the S&P and the idiotic policy makers.

What's next?

Wed, 07/21/2010 - 22:57 | 482664 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

how the FUCK is he still fucking posting here??

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 00:15 | 482840 snowjax
snowjax's picture

Reminds me of another infamous name:

Al Harrison, vice chairman of New York-based Alliance Capital Management and manager of its Minneapolis-based Premier Growth Fund, lost $283 million of the Florida pension fund's money on Enron investments. The $328 million total the pension fund lost on Enron was among the largest losses suffered by any Enron shareholder and was by far the largest loss of any state pension fund...

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 04:39 | 483049 Privatus
Privatus's picture

Shill Miller.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!