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Birth/Death Adjustment+ 206,000!
Take away the Birth/Death adjustment of 206,000 and the Real NFP is: -150,000. This is the biggest monthly B/D adjustment in over a year. And if as all the pundits claimed last month, demanding the McDonalds addition of 62,000 janitorial, part-time jobs be added to the May number, the economy really lost over 200,000 in May. Time to price in QE 666.
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ugly every which way you look at it...unless you are markk zandi
roseanne barr in a thong ugly...
mark zandi would probably see some way to get a boner over that, too.
mark zandi = tool
Mark Zandi, how much money does it take to have no shame over gobbling up your master's peckersauce on national TV? Does Barack Hussein Obama make you say "OH YESSA MASSA!" when he's plundering your guts? Ever have LIESman in the mix? QE reacharounds?
and why does anyone really care what an economist from moody's says? they suck bad enough at rating things which is their job, why would we care what their economist says when that has nothing to do with their business!
LOL.
When are you people going to stop peeking behind the curtains?.........................
They are starting to talk really fast on CNBC.
Was Grandpa Greenspan on CNBC this morning ?
He was. It always amazes me how much his speech and thought process cleared up considerably once he left the Fed.
That is like saying a plumber has less butt crack after retiring...
that wasn't greenspan that was woody allen
The early years............
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UHOgkDbVqc
this profound experience motivated the young Greenspan to change the conservative ethos of our banking industry.
and the very early years...............
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGxFpjlIcMU
Crazy Chester Greenspan aka Bubble Boy at (1:48)...
How many times can you say "unexpectedly" with a straight face?
unannounced, unheralded, unpredictedunanticipated, unforeseen, unlooked-for, out of the blue (predicate), unhoped, unhoped-for, unthought, unthought-of, unprovided for (predicate), upset (prenominal)
Repetition, repetition, repetition is the key to rote learning.
BLS bolderdash
BLS really believes in "Recovery Summer" bullshit.
Mining & Logging 2,000
Construction 35,000
Manufacturing 6,000
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 25,000
Information 4,000
Financial Activities 7,000
Professional & Business Services 26,000
Education & Health Services 18,000
Leisure & Hospitality 75,000
Other Services 8,000
Total Nonfarm Birth/Death Adjustment 206,000
the only real number here is the mcdonald's hiring spree
Liesman: Well, its better than expected.
DSK and Schwarzenegger need a vasectomy
What makes no sense to me is why the government is giving up now? After manipulating the numbers and markets for years, why fuck it all up now?
...'cause the churning to the suckers has finished?
I am the one sucker who held out until about 2 weeks ago. Serious. Fade me please and make some money.
You have to assume the big banks are positioned to profit and it will all make sense. The FED and Treasury have been shaking things down for the past 3 years so the big banks could unwind. Since the music seems to be slowing down, it is a signal the banks are finally hedged.
The big boys have been posting huge profits for 6 quaters. Stopping all the bullshit now, 6 quarters can go poof in one.
At year's end, which portfolio has the better return? The answer may surprise you.
Portfolio A
Q1 +7%
Q2 +7%
Q3 +7%
Q4 +7%
Portfolio B
Q1 +15%
Q2 +15%
Q3 +15%
Q4 (-15%)
Scroll down for answer...
It is portfolio A.
Its pretty simple to explain.
If it were possible to "get away" with all of this manipulation with their "cleverness" then they would and we wouldn't even be having this discussion.
Since we see that it isn't always possible to get away with it (these guys aren't gods, or even really that smart) you're eventually going to see the shit for what it is.
The turnip cannot be squeezed anymore. The looting is complete?
The looting is never complete. I'll chalk this up as routine maintenance of the manipulation mechanisms... we'll know in a couple months.
why the government is giving up now?
i) The impact of event in Japan cannot be disguised
ii) Washington wants more QE and Bernanke said things need to get really bad
iii) Message to Repubs not to fuck around and agree the debt ceiling hike
iv) They want the economy to worsen now, so they can make it look like it's improving for the elections next year
v) They've just given up hope, no point trying to continue the farce...
My small experience tells me that almost everything that puzzles me about human behavior and motivation can be explained by simple incompetence.
simple incompetence does not explain TARP, NAFTA, free trade, and mega bank bail outs..the truth is the simple answer: it's a plan and your world view is not in it.
206K imaginary jobs? WTF!
Interesting considering the fact that the US recently has had the lowest per capita birthrate since the mid 70's.
Nothing to see here.
Move along.
Edit for the cock gobbler that junked me...
I was being facetious, dimwit.
The BLS Birth/Death model has nothing to do with people being born or dying. It's another made up paramater that the BLS has come up with. It assumes that business are Born and Die. When they are Born, jobs are created. When they Die, jobs are lost. More on the Birth/Death Ram-a-Ram can be found here:
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
.
Zandi looks like a deer in the headlights. QUESTION: Can anyone weigh in on SILVER today.....Happy Friday!
Still treated more like an economically sensitive investment than currency.
slowing economy means slowing industrial demand, which is still about 60% the price, like it or not.
Both correct re silver, both unfairly junked.
There should be some function to see who junked it. I guarantee less junks if you institute that. I think a lot of people here junk anything that isn't outright bullish for their own personal view and portfolio (and we have some extreme personal views and portfolios so expect tons of junks and mostly conflicted ones).
One more excuse for the cartel to whack the shit out of it. Do not sell any physical. Shlomo shall print.
Yeah happy Friday zoo.... big things...
http://fiatsfire.blogspot.com/2011/06/fukushima-fry-day-redux-m63-earthq...
CNBC is now theater of the absurd. Liesman is such a propaganda tool. Why does Santelli even try to speak the truth?
And the VIX is at 18 because....?
Good question.
VIX should open at about 19.40
After that, we shall see if Ben Bernanke's own personal VIX creation units machine kicks in, and massive amounts of imaginary options suddenly become available for sale. And either that machine is plugged in, or the VIX soars over 20, and next week will be FUBAR city.
The low VIX over last couple of weeks has been puzzling to say the least. In the last couple of days the markets have been having second by second flash crashes and flash melt ups. Yesterday, in particular, the DOW moved 20 points in 10 seconds more times than I could count. Yeah, volatility is really low, right! I need a drink.... Who knows, we will probably end today with the VIX below 18 and the markets closing up 1%. Paging Johnny 5, paging Johnny 5...
Because it's a fix. Lower option pricing? Cause if the VIX was 50 where it belongs, options would be through the roof and there go the option dealers.
....options are no longer a hedge for this mess.
Why do you think gold is so high?
Wow - my first reaction to the report was why did they feel obligated to tell us the truth? I see they did not! They lied an above-average amount. That pig has the lipstick on it.
Bullish for stocks - get your rally hat on.
Geez. This week definitely has been bad (predictable) news given at the cyclic rate. I can only expect this to continue...
The least surprising result of the week is out - now maybe everyone will recognise what a DEPRESSION looks like.
Unemployment on the rise - so what next?
Will the Neo-cons really suggest cutting public spending as a solution to the lack of jobs? - if they do then they need shooting for their lack of economic knowledge.
Even all the 'adjustments' and 'revisions' and 'seasonal effects' cannot make this look good. The truth always comes out in the end.
No shit.
I try to tell people that all the time who like to withold the truth. Shit eventually gets out, and usually the longer you wait the more you get burned.
The problem is its been a depression the whole time, just incubated and blinded from the public.
How is 40+ Million people on food stamps NOT one? There was significantly less population on food assistance during the "great depression" yet this is a RECOVERY? Not even a recession? Yeah ok.
Cutting spending is not "a solution to the lack of jobs" it is a consequence of insolvency. Best of luck fending for yourself.
Cutting spending is not "a solution to the lack of jobs" it is a consequence of insolvency. Best of luck fending for yourself.
Cutting spending is not "a solution to the lack of jobs" it is a consequence of insolvency. Best of luck fending for yourself.
Cutting spending is not "a solution to the lack of jobs" it is a consequence of insolvency. Best of luck fending for yourself.
Boom-chaka-lakka.
This is proof Immelt is doing a bang up job on the Presidents Council.
American companies are hiring, just NOT in America.
@lizzy36
The only exception I take with your comment is referring to GE or any other multinational as "American companies." Extra-national or supra-national would be more fitting. They are definitely not concerned with American democracy.
Tyler,
what's the story with Yemeni President Saleh?
sorry, off topic
Limited engagement with 'small parties of rebel tribesmen', airport on fire.
Trans: refusing to accept the US deal, (now there's a surprise... after he said he would and all... to whom?) possible presence of observers helping his opposition convince him otherwise - not gone hot yet though. Stoked, ready if required.
Reuters reported Saleh was dead, and shortly after that he was alive. Apparently, the opposition was the source of the first statement
Our EHM and jackals are clearly better at playing offense than defense. Will US troops now take their turn at counter-insurgency?
Maybe we will bring in some of the team from Oman and Bahrain, where they seem to be doing a better job.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201163125916642890....
Wounded - also, whoever did it also hit the mosque. Tracking the # of bulldozered mosques [27 in Bahrain, I think so far], it isn't a smart move. Although, one supposes, intercine religious war is a) always the bloodiest and b) the easiest to ignite.
He wouldn't buy Goldman's latest Abacus...
Bomb his ass...
Is it actually possible to just subtract the B/D Adjustment, which is non-seasonally adjusted, from the NFP, which is seasonally-adjusted? I don't think the numbers are as easily comparable as you would have people think.
You are correct - you cannot add the numbers directly.
As an aside, there is another unseen component of the B/D model: if a business is called and no one answers - it's previously reported employment is STILL included.
Why are so many ZH readers referencing commentary from CNBC? Who cares what is said on that sorry excuse for a financial news program? Here is some free advice:
Turn that excrement off!
because it is fun to listen to when we are right and they are wrong and they make up reasons to explain why they aren't wrong
I agree: excrement.
After reading the Fed Balance Sheet info on ZH yesterday (and tons of thanks to Tyler), I was thinking:
"CNBC wastes so much time talking about irrelevant low-priority stuff, when what it should be doing is educating its audience on how to understand its country's finances. It's really not that hard."
Absolute travesty.
Its important to be able to access a "perfect reverse barometer" of reality.
Whatever those GE yapping heads are scripted for - take the contrariness.
Its funny how many times some over-60 money manger is sneaked in at 6AM to go on-air and tell the world that the market is rigged, Obama is a farce and things are getting worse. The silence is golden. Soon enough, its back to 23 hours of 'Boo-ya!'
What a fucking joke that BD number is. Most Americans bah bah bah still sucking all the propaganda down like it was a smoothie from starbucks.
Massive put buying on the XRT is about to reveal itself as..........profitable. Once that utterly ridiculous ETF plunges, bar the door on these utterly ridiculously priced retail stocks, as the synthetic buyer of those shares becomes a forced liquidator.
The XRT should open at $51 and head lower from there, maybe with some BS bounce in the first two hours.
FUBAR trading all around.
Helmets ON!
Unusually unusual
Gold short term bubble (July-October) is coming closer :
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=420#p32823
While stocks....
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...
And that, they say, is that.
That is fucking unbelievable that they can guesstimate that many jobs. It really is.
Hey if you are printing money out of thin air...you can also create jobs out of thin air....
The economy died; banksters are going though the pockets looking for change. Don't forget to take his shoes!
They did that already. They are cutting out the gold teeth from the corpses now.
How can such a horrendous jobs number and economic data justify a +206k on the birth/death?
8:53 AM and still no mention of the unemployment rate on HuffPo
Love Joe Kernen holding rolling his eyes head of SEIU talks.
He should be checking to see if he still has his wallet.
Wallet! He'll be lucky if he still has the fillings in his teeth.
except all he wants to talk about is the failed stimulus. what about the failed tax cuts.
March and April numbers were taken down a total of 39,000.
QE3 is coming, but it will not be used to pump up stocks..... the joke will be on the perma-bulls.
That would be funny.
Right, whats coming next is Treasury raid on 401K's, no one expects the federal inquisition!
The Treasury Is Soliciting Your Feedback Regarding The Proposed Annuitization Of 401(k) | zero hedge
Here's my take on the next QE.
The Prez rolls up his sleaves (neatly) to show he is ready to get to work. He has checks cut for the roiling unwashed masses a-la his predecessor GW. He visits some local relief agencies and pledges money to the states. His mandarins step up secret buys of state bonds.
He needs to trickle some pocket change down to the people on main street.
It's going to take one hell of a false flag to "fix" this economic mess.
The fifth & sixth fleets are still in place. 7th is policing the tide of debris heading towards the USA [2.2 million square miles of it, apparently... great photo-op when that arrives].
Just sayin'
The 7th fleet is responsible for the Pacific, from longitudal line at the India/Pak border to the International Date Line. It's not going to do much about anything close the the US shoreline.
Scientists predict the first bits of rubbish will wash up in a year's time...
In three years time the debris field will have reached the U.S. West Coast and will then turn toward Hawaii and back again toward Asia, circulating in what is known as the North Pacific gyre
Members of the U.S. Navy's 7th fleet, who spotted the extraordinary floating rubbish, say they have never seen anything like it and are warning the debris now poses a threat to shipping traffic.
'It's very challenging to move through these to consider these boats run on propellers and that these fishing nets or other debris can be dangerous to the vessels that are actually trying to do the work,' Ensign Vernon Dennis told ABC News.
'So getting through some of these obstacles doesn't make much sense if you are going to actually cause more debris by having your own vessel become stuck in one of these waterways.'
http://onhudson.typepad.com/onhudsoncom/2011/04/us-navy-7th-fleet-spots-...
The debris isn't exactly steaming out of their endzone ball in hand. More like crippled limping. I mentioned it because it was on my mind. I didn't mean to include the fleet in the photo-op, I think a horizon to horizon junk cloud [probably picking up the vast swathes of plastic out there as well - http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/the-worlds-rubbish... ] is going to change the way people think about the ocean... for a little bit.
I infer from the junks that the 5th/6th still aren't hanging around near Iran then? I've not been tracking them. If so, I'll junk myself.
it's fucking Waterworld.
Well McDonalds, the USA's #1 employer now apparently needs to just hire 100,000 a month and everything will be fine!
Do economists ever look beyond the headlines when they come up with these numbers? Tornados! High gasoline prices! Falling auto production in Japan! My god, surely someone would look around the town they live in or at least at their own neighborhood and see that this is a shitty economy.
What? You mean that WS economist and Strategist (a/o May 27th Goldman was @ +190K and JOE LAVORGNA was at +300k) are status quo muppets who can't think their way out of a wet paper bag.
Color me not shocked. Just remember they get paid 7 figures, to be this WRONG.
Come to the DC area. Other than the illegal alien infested areas of Manassas, Manassas Park and Springfield, Va. you would never know there is a depression. This area is nuts and stores are packed and homes are selling briskly, except for the before mentioned areas. You have to keep the lower classes in their place after all.
QE3....This times its personnel.
Bernanke to buy homes :)
methinks that's already been happening. maybe not homes yet, but definitely strip malls & red roof inns.
On a side note, Jack Kevorkian died today.
It took the Fed over a year to say we were in a recession in Dec 08. How long before they admit we have been in a Depression since spring of 09? Amazes me to see stupid Americans that don't want to know, plan their vacations, spend money on movies, dinner, etc........ Wake up people.
the BLS readjusting their database-in other words changing history..
Important Information Changes to MLS Time Series DataWith the release of April 2011 mass layoff data on May 20, 2011, data suppression procedures will be updated in the MLS time series database. These changes may affect data as far back as 1996. Similar changes were made to quarterly extended mass layoff data on May 11, 2011.
http://www.bls.gov/mls/mlsnote.htm
Newsflash:
Labor Sec Hilda Solis on CNBC at 9:35
I cannot wait to tune into this propaganda fear of promises an how wonderful the Fed an Pres are doing as we gear up for Summer Recovery part deux.
Liesman says GOOD News average hourly up 0.3%.
Excellent.
Slaves are working longer for the same pay so that hiring is not needed. Automation baby...all the CVS in Manhattan have been outfitted with self checkouts in the past 6 months. Each one now has 4-6 self checkouts.
Liesman = Buffet Buster -- that guy needs to stick to eating and clogging up gas station toilets
ISM data is going to be absolutely horrible, obviously....the lies the FED have been telling are quickly catching up with them and many Americans will suffer greatly.
As equities decline, opposition to the new debt ceiling will evaporate like ice at Fukushima.
debt ceiling debate is academic now, with or without an increase you will still get collapse.
I really doubt that. QE3 will send stocks to all time highs.
And dollar to all time lows, and I doubt much if any upside to stocks, as it would simply create a churn feeding frenzy dump. QE3 is pie in the sky bullshit....game over.
We will see dwdollar, it won't be long, 30,000 dow and 100 million on food stamps i am thinking.
Right, is there anyone left REALLY fooled by the creation of more fake money? No. Their time is up, in fact QE2 start was the end of their road QE3 is a bag of hot air.
this number is scary because it was released..congress got the whip..who else was the target?? johnq is on an early weekend..who is the target?? why now??
admitting failure of the policy followed the past 3 years??
somebody has to go to jail.
people claiming tax cuts did not work..I ask you WTF tax cuts?? bush's was just an extension not a CUT. like me saying I kept my old car but you can say I refused to buy new..so it did not stimulate the economy..JERKS
The largest tax cut in the last 20 years was a nominal 1% cut to the top? WHOOPDEEDOOOOOO!!!
Captain's Log, Star Date 6.3.2011
The Enterprise has been sucked into QE 666, a Black Hole, where Earth used to be. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-NwMH0JEw0
People dont want to listen, or see reality clearly....there will be no QE3 to pump their 100 P/E equities, theyll get their 401K's stolen next and be left bewildered and crying and eating Milk Bones. The country is bankrupt and there are no lenders, simple fact!
The Treasury Is Soliciting Your Feedback Regarding The Proposed Annuitization Of 401(k) | zero hedge
Sheepdog, I think it will happen as well. The zerohedge article on it was from Feb 2010. Do you know if there has been any more recent talk on this?
some of you on the "manipulation" front are off the deep end. I agree i'm sure some numebrs are massaged but it's real easy... The gov't pumped alot of money into the system, kept interest rates artificially low, enticed some buisnesses to hire and a few people to buy homes, gave people a little lift in their pocketbooks via taxes and now it's all wearing off and the necessities that people buy(globally and in the US) have gotten more expensive.
not to mention the housing nature of the bust, has been a huge amount of the workforce. without a housing recovery it will be difficult to decrease unemployment.
Manipulation?? eh. more like delayed policy impact.
I left the trading room the Friday before the long weekend in the USA. whew.....
Everything I've heard for a long time suggests that banks aren't lending, so where exactly is the capital coming from for business start ups to support four straight months of increasing B/D adjustments?
I think you just answered your own question: because it's all bullshit.
Most Americans still lapping the lies down like a cold schlitz though.
Could anyone please kindly explain how this birth/death model figure relates to the today's announced number? I can see it already that birth/death number gives more insights into employment situation but I don't know how exactly...
Are there any simple examples?
The economy is shit and it never recovered-- maybe for the elitards but it sure hasn't outside of that. Of course with policymakers busy insider trading their own offshore accounts why would they care outside of their own gains-- flying around the world and allowing the raping of other countries in order to keep their precious banking shares on the up and up.
Now get ready for the spin-- if it wasn't for this bogus B/D model in the first place we wouldn't really see any gains at all-- this is still a depression period.
Nice mention on Bloomberg of this article and Tyler Durden / Zero Hedge by Tom Keene -
Who let this unemployment number out? Changed needed at the Ministry of Propaganda asap.
To all economists : tell the prols the numbers are not that bad...they will believe anything.
xanax , ativan & prozac production going 24/7 apply within..
a medicated society is a polite society.
Hope this ain't too silly a question, but are economists and
analysts allowed to be right! From the outside they give the appearance
of always being wrong!
Anyone got a recipe for bbq illegal?
We've gotten to the point where we can't fudge the numbers to produce 'palatable' results without pulling numbers out of thin air...... 'birth/death' is a total fraud (nothing to back up the 'assumptions' made)
And even with this absurdity, the numbers stink...... but just wait for the 'correction' (every one of those has been for the worse too, right?)
We're as bad as 1932 - only food stamps and unemployment are keeping people off the streets selling apples
or rioting
Pimp Zandi
Pimp Zandi said " oil has come down now..." This guy needs to be hung in Times Square.
Ed Rubenstein charts employment at vdare.com he says Hispanic employment has been rising while White employment has been declining, in fact that Whites were the overwhelming majority of those losing jobs during the downturn, so you have Latinos GAINING and the folks who built the country getting lost adrift. Who designed that I wonder?
CREEP
Committee to RE-Elect the President
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20500
TO: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
2 Massachusetts Ave NE
Washington,DC 20212
Memo: When all else fails, invent small business births creating +200k jobs for the remainder of the 2012 election cycle.
Continue until directed otherwise.
Much love, David Axelrod.
BTW Tyler: Calculated Risk went on and on last time you posted this about how you can't just subtract B/D numbers from NFP because B/D is not seasonally adjusted and NFP is...
Exactly. B/D of 206K must be compared to non-seasonally adjusted payroll gain of 682K. Thus, in May, B/D accounted for 30% of non-seasonally adjusted payroll gain. In April the figures were 175K vs 1172K for 15%, March was 117K vs 905K for 13%, and February was 112K vs 811K for 14%. So, May share accounted for by B/D was twice that of the prior three months. Big, but not to the degree that mindless comparisons of 206K to 54K are.
Tom Keene just gave TD a shoutout. Refreshing how he doesn't just say "some blogger".
Yes, but Michael Mckee just crapped all over this analysis, saying the B/D adjustment is already taken into account in calcuation...
McKee on Bloomberg just equated Tyler with the "Black Helicopter crowd" RE: theBirth/Death Adjustment........... :>)
After Tom Keene cited ZH Mike Mckee challenged the way Tyler used the birth/death model to come up with the -150k number. Tyler please respond.
B/D of 206K must be compared to non-seasonally adjusted payroll gain of 682K. Thus, in May, B/D accounted for 30% of non-seasonally adjusted payroll gain. In April the figures were 175K vs 1172K for 15%, March was 117K vs 905K for 13%, and February was 112K vs 811K for 14%. So, May share accounted for by B/D was twice that of the prior three months. Big, but not to the degree that mindless comparisons of 206K to 54K are.
I think the historically dubious B/D model (and indeed almost any number issued by the BLS) needs to be defended before anyone tries to question disregarding it.