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Birth/Death Adjustment+ 206,000!

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Take away the Birth/Death adjustment of 206,000 and the Real NFP is: -150,000. This is the biggest monthly B/D adjustment in over a year. And if as all the pundits claimed last month, demanding the McDonalds addition of 62,000 janitorial, part-time jobs be added to the May number, the economy really lost over 200,000 in May. Time to price in QE 666.

 

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Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:40 | 1335290 oogs66
oogs66's picture

ugly every which way you look at it...unless you are markk zandi

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:49 | 1335330 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

roseanne barr in a thong ugly...

mark zandi would probably see some way to get a boner over that, too.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 11:19 | 1336086 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

mark zandi = tool

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:49 | 1335354 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Mark Zandi, how much money does it take to have no shame over gobbling up your master's peckersauce on national TV? Does Barack Hussein Obama make you say "OH YESSA MASSA!" when he's plundering your guts? Ever have LIESman in the mix? QE reacharounds?

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:02 | 1335416 oogs66
oogs66's picture

and why does anyone really care what an economist from moody's says?  they suck bad enough at rating things which is their job, why would we care what their economist says when that has nothing to do with their business!

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:13 | 1335458 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

LOL.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:57 | 1335693 solgundy
solgundy's picture

When are you people going to stop peeking behind the curtains?.........................

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:41 | 1335293 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

They are starting to talk really fast on CNBC.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:48 | 1335322 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Was Grandpa Greenspan on CNBC this morning ?

 

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:08 | 1335434 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

He was. It always amazes me how much his speech and thought process cleared up considerably once he left the Fed.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 11:06 | 1336036 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

That is like saying a plumber has less butt crack after retiring...

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:31 | 1335556 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

that wasn't greenspan that was woody allen

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 10:08 | 1335643 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

The early years............

www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UHOgkDbVqc

this profound experience motivated the young Greenspan to change the conservative ethos of our banking industry.

and the very early years...............

www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGxFpjlIcMU

 

 

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 11:04 | 1336028 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"Was Grandpa Greenspan on CNBC this morning ?"

Crazy Chester Greenspan aka Bubble Boy at (1:48)...

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:50 | 1335334 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

How many times can you say "unexpectedly" with a straight face?

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:52 | 1335375 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

unannounced, unheralded, unpredictedunanticipated, unforeseen, unlooked-for, out of the blue (predicate), unhoped, unhoped-for, unthought, unthought-of, unprovided for (predicate), upset (prenominal)

 

Repetition, repetition, repetition is the key to rote learning.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:46 | 1335300 Badabing
Badabing's picture

BLS bolderdash

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:50 | 1335363 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

BLS really believes in "Recovery Summer" bullshit.

Mining & Logging 2,000              
Construction 35,000              
Manufacturing 6,000              
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 25,000              
Information 4,000              
Financial Activities 7,000              
Professional & Business Services 26,000              
Education & Health Services 18,000              
Leisure & Hospitality 75,000              
Other Services 8,000              
Total Nonfarm Birth/Death Adjustment 206,000

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:06 | 1335423 oogs66
oogs66's picture

the only real number here is the mcdonald's hiring spree

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:44 | 1335304 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Liesman: Well, its better than expected.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:43 | 1335309 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

DSK and Schwarzenegger need a vasectomy

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:47 | 1335310 mmlevine
mmlevine's picture

What makes no sense to me is why the government is giving up now?  After manipulating the numbers and markets for years, why fuck it all up now?

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:48 | 1335323 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

...'cause the churning to the suckers has finished?

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:51 | 1335338 mmlevine
mmlevine's picture

I am the one sucker who held out until about 2 weeks ago. Serious. Fade me please and make some money.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:50 | 1335332 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

You have to assume the big banks are positioned to profit and it will all make sense.  The FED and Treasury have been shaking things down for the past 3 years so the big banks could unwind.  Since the music seems to be slowing down, it is a signal the banks are finally hedged.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:54 | 1335369 mmlevine
mmlevine's picture

The big boys have been posting huge profits for 6 quaters. Stopping all the bullshit now, 6 quarters can go poof in one.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:35 | 1335581 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

At year's end, which portfolio has the better return?  The answer may surprise you. 

 

Portfolio A

Q1 +7%

Q2 +7%

Q3 +7%

Q4 +7%

 

Portfolio B

Q1 +15%

Q2 +15%

Q3 +15%

Q4 (-15%)

 

Scroll down for answer...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is portfolio A.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:55 | 1335383 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

Its pretty simple to explain.

If it were possible to "get away" with all of this manipulation with their "cleverness" then they would and we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

Since we see that it isn't always possible to get away with it (these guys aren't gods, or even really that smart) you're eventually going to see the shit for what it is.

 

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:59 | 1335387 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

The turnip cannot be squeezed anymore.  The looting is complete?

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 10:40 | 1335889 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

The looting is never complete.  I'll chalk this up as routine maintenance of the manipulation mechanisms...  we'll know in a couple months.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:09 | 1335440 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

why the government is giving up now?

i) The impact of event in Japan cannot be disguised

ii) Washington wants more QE and Bernanke said things need to get really bad

iii) Message to Repubs not to fuck around and agree the debt ceiling hike

iv) They want the economy to worsen now, so they can make it look like it's improving for the elections next year

v) They've just given up hope, no point trying to continue the farce...

 


Fri, 06/03/2011 - 10:45 | 1335921 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

My small experience tells me that almost everything that puzzles me about human behavior and motivation can be explained by simple incompetence.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 12:19 | 1335943 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

simple incompetence does not explain TARP, NAFTA, free trade, and mega bank bail outs..the truth is  the simple answer: it's a plan and your world view is not in it.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:47 | 1335312 Racer
Racer's picture

206K imaginary jobs? WTF!

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:16 | 1335313 Blythes Master
Blythes Master's picture

Interesting considering the fact that the US recently has had the lowest per capita birthrate since the mid 70's.

 

Nothing to see here.

 

Move along.

 

Edit for the cock gobbler that junked me...

 

I was being facetious, dimwit.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:18 | 1335479 Palladin
Palladin's picture

The BLS Birth/Death model has nothing to do with people being born or dying. It's another made up paramater that the BLS has come up with. It assumes that business are Born and Die. When they are Born, jobs are created. When they Die, jobs are lost. More on the Birth/Death Ram-a-Ram can be found here:

http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

 

.

 

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:43 | 1335315 mcmoo
mcmoo's picture

Zandi looks like a deer in the headlights. QUESTION: Can anyone weigh in on SILVER today.....Happy Friday!

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:46 | 1335329 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Still treated more like an economically sensitive investment than currency.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:47 | 1335344 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

slowing economy means slowing industrial demand, which is still about 60% the price, like it or not.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:15 | 1335478 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Both correct re silver, both unfairly junked.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 10:10 | 1335755 Slim
Slim's picture

There should be some function to see who junked it.  I guarantee less junks if you institute that.  I think a lot of people here junk anything that isn't outright bullish for their own personal view and portfolio (and we have some extreme personal views and portfolios so expect tons of junks and mostly conflicted ones).

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:04 | 1335429 Arnolds Love Child
Arnolds Love Child's picture

One more excuse for the cartel to whack the shit out of it. Do not sell any physical. Shlomo shall print.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 13:59 | 1336795 jus_lite_reading
Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:47 | 1335316 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

CNBC is now theater of the absurd.  Liesman is such a propaganda tool. Why does Santelli even try to speak the truth?

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:48 | 1335319 Cdad
Cdad's picture

And the VIX is at 18 because....?

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:55 | 1335373 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

Good question.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:58 | 1335390 Cdad
Cdad's picture

VIX should open at about 19.40

After that, we shall see if Ben Bernanke's own personal VIX creation units machine kicks in, and massive amounts of imaginary options suddenly become available for sale.  And either that machine is plugged in, or the VIX soars over 20, and next week will be FUBAR city.

 

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:10 | 1335444 assumptionblindness
assumptionblindness's picture

The low VIX over last couple of weeks has been puzzling to say the least.  In the last couple of days the markets have been having second by second flash crashes and flash melt ups.  Yesterday, in particular, the DOW moved 20 points in 10 seconds more times than I could count.  Yeah, volatility is really low, right!  I need a drink....  Who knows, we will probably end today with the VIX below 18 and the markets closing up 1%.  Paging Johnny 5, paging Johnny 5...  

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:57 | 1335380 mmlevine
mmlevine's picture

Because it's a fix.  Lower option pricing?  Cause if the VIX was 50 where it belongs, options would be through the roof and there go the option dealers.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 10:07 | 1335747 Dain Bramage
Dain Bramage's picture

....options are no longer a hedge for this mess.

Why do you think gold is so high?

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:48 | 1335320 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

Wow - my first reaction to the report was why did they feel obligated to tell us the truth?  I see they did not!  They lied an above-average amount.  That pig has the lipstick on it.

Bullish for stocks - get your rally hat on.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:45 | 1335327 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

Geez. This week definitely has been bad (predictable) news given at the cyclic rate. I can only expect this to continue...

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:50 | 1335333 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

The least surprising result of the week is out - now maybe everyone will recognise what a DEPRESSION looks like.

Unemployment on the rise - so what next?

 

Will the Neo-cons really suggest cutting public spending as a solution to the lack of jobs? - if they do then they need shooting for their lack of economic knowledge.

Even all the 'adjustments' and 'revisions' and 'seasonal effects' cannot make this look good. The truth always comes out in the end.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:52 | 1335350 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

No shit.

I try to tell people that all the time who like to withold the truth. Shit eventually gets out, and usually the longer you wait the more you get burned.

The problem is its been a depression the whole time, just incubated and blinded from the public.

How is 40+ Million people on food stamps NOT one? There was significantly less population on food assistance during the "great depression" yet this is a RECOVERY? Not even a recession? Yeah ok.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:50 | 1335667 DeltaDawn
DeltaDawn's picture

Cutting spending is not "a solution to the lack of jobs" it is a consequence of insolvency. Best of luck fending for yourself.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:47 | 1335673 DeltaDawn
DeltaDawn's picture

Cutting spending is not "a solution to the lack of jobs" it is a consequence of insolvency. Best of luck fending for yourself.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:51 | 1335676 DeltaDawn
DeltaDawn's picture

Cutting spending is not "a solution to the lack of jobs" it is a consequence of insolvency. Best of luck fending for yourself.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:51 | 1335678 DeltaDawn
DeltaDawn's picture

Cutting spending is not "a solution to the lack of jobs" it is a consequence of insolvency. Best of luck fending for yourself.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:47 | 1335335 New Survivalist
New Survivalist's picture

Boom-chaka-lakka.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:50 | 1335337 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

This is proof Immelt is doing a bang up job on the Presidents Council.

American companies are hiring, just NOT in America.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:26 | 1335553 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@lizzy36

The only exception I take with your comment is referring to GE or any other multinational as "American companies." Extra-national or supra-national would be more fitting. They are definitely not concerned with American democracy.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:57 | 1335343 citrine
citrine's picture

Tyler,

what's the story with Yemeni President Saleh?

sorry, off topic

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:59 | 1335388 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Limited engagement with 'small parties of rebel tribesmen', airport on fire.

Trans: refusing to accept the US deal, (now there's a surprise... after he said he would and all... to whom?) possible presence of observers helping his opposition convince him otherwise - not gone hot yet though. Stoked, ready if required.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:03 | 1335408 citrine
citrine's picture

Reuters reported Saleh was dead, and shortly after that he was alive. Apparently, the opposition was the source of the first statement

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 10:45 | 1335916 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Our EHM and jackals are clearly better at playing offense than defense.  Will US troops now take their turn at counter-insurgency?

Maybe we will bring in some of the team from Oman and Bahrain, where they seem to be doing a better job.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 13:18 | 1336602 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201163125916642890....

Wounded - also, whoever did it also hit the mosque. Tracking the # of bulldozered mosques [27 in Bahrain, I think so far], it isn't a smart move. Although, one supposes, intercine religious war is a) always the bloodiest and b) the easiest to ignite.

 

 

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 11:11 | 1336047 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"what's the story with Yemeni President Saleh?"

He wouldn't buy Goldman's latest Abacus...

Bomb his ass...

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:51 | 1335346 brian0918
brian0918's picture

Is it actually possible to just subtract the B/D Adjustment, which is non-seasonally adjusted, from the NFP, which is seasonally-adjusted? I don't think the numbers are as easily comparable as you would have people think.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:12 | 1335465 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

You are correct - you cannot add the numbers directly.

As an aside, there is another unseen component of the B/D model: if a business is called and no one answers - it's previously reported employment is STILL included.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:48 | 1335349 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Why are so many ZH readers referencing commentary from CNBC?  Who cares what is said on that sorry excuse for a financial news program?  Here is some free advice:

Turn that excrement off!

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:08 | 1335430 oogs66
oogs66's picture

because it is fun to listen to when we are right and they are wrong and they make up reasons to explain why they aren't wrong

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:19 | 1335484 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

I agree: excrement.

After reading the Fed Balance Sheet info on ZH yesterday (and tons of thanks to Tyler), I was thinking:

"CNBC wastes so much time talking about irrelevant low-priority stuff, when what it should be doing is educating its audience on how to understand its country's finances. It's really not that hard."

Absolute travesty.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:38 | 1335588 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

Its important to be able to access a "perfect reverse barometer" of reality.

Whatever those GE yapping heads are scripted for - take the contrariness.

Its funny how many times some over-60 money manger is sneaked in at 6AM to go on-air and tell the world that the market is rigged, Obama is a farce and things are getting worse.  The silence is golden.  Soon enough, its back to 23 hours of 'Boo-ya!'

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:52 | 1335351 j0nx
j0nx's picture

What a fucking joke that BD number is. Most Americans bah bah bah still sucking all the propaganda down like it was a smoothie from starbucks.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:49 | 1335358 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Massive put buying on the XRT is about to reveal itself as..........profitable.  Once that utterly ridiculous ETF plunges, bar the door on these utterly ridiculously priced retail stocks, as the synthetic buyer of those shares becomes a forced liquidator.  

The XRT should open at $51 and head lower from there, maybe with some BS bounce in the first two hours.

FUBAR trading all around.

Helmets ON!

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:50 | 1335359 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Unusually unusual

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:10 | 1335361 ivars
Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:50 | 1335362 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

And that, they say, is that.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:54 | 1335365 tao400
tao400's picture

That is fucking unbelievable that they can guesstimate that many jobs. It really is.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:59 | 1335404 youngman
youngman's picture

Hey if you are printing money out of thin air...you can also create jobs out of thin air....

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:51 | 1335366 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

The economy died; banksters are going though the pockets looking for change. Don't forget to take his shoes!

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:34 | 1335589 j0nx
j0nx's picture

They did that already. They are cutting out the gold teeth from the corpses now.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:52 | 1335370 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

How can such a horrendous jobs number and economic data justify a +206k on the birth/death?

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:55 | 1335372 pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

8:53 AM and still no mention of the unemployment rate on HuffPo

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:55 | 1335374 benevolous
benevolous's picture

Love Joe Kernen holding rolling his eyes head of SEIU talks.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:02 | 1335415 cossack55
cossack55's picture

He should be checking to see if he still has his wallet.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 10:34 | 1335860 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Wallet! He'll be lucky if he still has the fillings in his teeth.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:05 | 1335435 oogs66
oogs66's picture

except all he wants to talk about is the failed stimulus.  what about the failed tax cuts.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:53 | 1335376 2DollarBill
2DollarBill's picture

March and April numbers were taken down a total of 39,000.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:57 | 1335378 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

QE3 is coming, but it will not be used to pump up stocks..... the joke will be on the perma-bulls.

That would be funny.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:19 | 1335501 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, whats coming next is Treasury raid on 401K's, no one expects the federal inquisition! 

The Treasury Is Soliciting Your Feedback Regarding The Proposed Annuitization Of 401(k) | zero hedge

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:29 | 1335546 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Here's my take on the next QE.

The Prez rolls up his sleaves (neatly) to show he is ready to get to work.  He has checks cut for the roiling unwashed masses a-la his predecessor GW. He visits some local relief agencies and pledges money to the states.  His mandarins step up secret buys of state bonds.

He needs to trickle some pocket change down to the people on main street.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:58 | 1335382 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

It's going to take one hell of a false flag to "fix" this economic mess.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:02 | 1335395 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

The fifth & sixth fleets are still in place. 7th is policing the tide of debris heading towards the USA [2.2 million square miles of it, apparently... great photo-op when that arrives].

 

Just sayin'

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:20 | 1335514 benevolous
benevolous's picture

The 7th fleet is responsible for the Pacific, from longitudal line at the India/Pak border to the International Date Line. It's not going to do much about anything close the the US shoreline.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 12:58 | 1336501 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Scientists predict the first bits of rubbish will wash up in a year's time...

In three years time the debris field will have reached the U.S. West Coast and will then turn toward Hawaii and back again toward Asia, circulating in what is known as the North Pacific gyre

Members of the U.S. Navy's 7th fleet, who spotted the extraordinary floating rubbish, say they have never seen anything like it and are warning the debris now poses a threat to shipping traffic.

'It's very challenging to move through these to consider these boats run on propellers and that these fishing nets or other debris can be dangerous to the vessels that are actually trying to do the work,' Ensign Vernon Dennis told ABC News. 

'So getting through some of these obstacles doesn't make much sense if you are going to actually cause more debris by having your own vessel become stuck in one of these waterways.'

 

http://onhudson.typepad.com/onhudsoncom/2011/04/us-navy-7th-fleet-spots-...

 

 

The debris isn't exactly steaming out of their endzone ball in hand. More like crippled limping. I mentioned it because it was on my mind. I didn't mean to include the fleet in the photo-op, I think a horizon to horizon junk cloud [probably picking up the vast swathes of plastic out there as well - http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/the-worlds-rubbish... ] is going to change the way people think about the ocean... for a little bit.

 

I infer from the junks that the 5th/6th still aren't hanging around near Iran then? I've not been tracking them. If so, I'll junk myself.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 19:23 | 1337993 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

it's fucking Waterworld.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:58 | 1335386 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well McDonalds, the USA's #1 employer now apparently needs to just hire 100,000 a month and everything will be fine!

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:00 | 1335391 DontShootTheMes...
DontShootTheMessenger's picture

Do economists ever look beyond the headlines when they come up with these numbers?  Tornados!  High gasoline prices!  Falling auto production in Japan!  My god, surely someone would look around the town they live in or at least at their own neighborhood and see that this is a shitty economy.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:00 | 1335407 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

What? You mean that WS economist and Strategist (a/o May 27th Goldman was @ +190K and JOE LAVORGNA was at +300k) are status quo muppets who can't think their way out of a wet paper bag.

Color me not shocked. Just remember they get paid 7 figures, to be this WRONG.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:45 | 1335639 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Come to the DC area. Other than the illegal alien infested areas of Manassas, Manassas Park and Springfield, Va. you would never know there is a depression. This area is nuts and stores are packed and homes are selling briskly, except for the before mentioned areas. You have to keep the lower classes in their place after all.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:00 | 1335392 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

QE3....This times its personnel.

Bernanke to buy homes :)

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:21 | 1335494 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

methinks that's already been happening.   maybe not homes yet, but definitely strip malls & red roof inns.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:57 | 1335393 Helvidius
Helvidius's picture

On a side note, Jack Kevorkian died today.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:01 | 1335397 Sandy15
Sandy15's picture

It took the Fed over a year to say we were in a recession in Dec 08.  How long before they admit we have been in a Depression since spring of 09?  Amazes me to see stupid Americans that don't want to know, plan their vacations, spend money on movies, dinner, etc........  Wake up people.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 08:58 | 1335398 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

the BLS readjusting their database-in other words changing history..

Important Information Changes to MLS Time Series Data

With the release of April 2011 mass layoff data on May 20, 2011, data suppression procedures will be updated in the MLS time series database. These changes may affect data as far back as 1996. Similar changes were made to quarterly extended mass layoff data on May 11, 2011.

 

http://www.bls.gov/mls/mlsnote.htm

 

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:02 | 1335403 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Newsflash:
Labor Sec Hilda Solis on CNBC at 9:35
I cannot wait to tune into this propaganda fear of promises an how wonderful the Fed an Pres are doing as we gear up for Summer Recovery part deux.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:02 | 1335418 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Liesman says GOOD News average hourly up 0.3%.
Excellent.
Slaves are working longer for the same pay so that hiring is not needed. Automation baby...all the CVS in Manhattan have been outfitted with self checkouts in the past 6 months. Each one now has 4-6 self checkouts.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:37 | 1335602 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Liesman = Buffet Buster -- that guy needs to stick to eating and clogging up gas station toilets

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:02 | 1335421 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

ISM data is going to be absolutely horrible, obviously....the lies the FED have been telling are quickly catching up with them and many Americans will suffer greatly. 

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:03 | 1335424 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

As equities decline, opposition to the new debt ceiling will evaporate like ice at Fukushima.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:08 | 1335445 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

debt ceiling debate is academic now, with or without an increase you will still get collapse.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:14 | 1335471 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

I really doubt that.  QE3 will send stocks to all time highs.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:17 | 1335491 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And dollar to all time lows, and I doubt much if any upside to stocks, as it would simply create a churn feeding frenzy dump. QE3 is pie in the sky bullshit....game over.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:21 | 1335497 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

We will see dwdollar,   it won't be long, 30,000 dow and 100 million on food stamps i am thinking.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:17 | 1335475 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, is there anyone left REALLY fooled by the creation of more fake money? No. Their time is up, in fact QE2 start was the end of their road QE3 is a bag of hot air.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:12 | 1335452 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

this number is scary because it was released..congress got the whip..who else was the target?? johnq is on an early weekend..who is the target?? why now??

admitting failure of the policy followed the past 3 years??

somebody has to go to jail.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:15 | 1335466 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

people claiming tax cuts did not work..I ask you WTF tax cuts??  bush's was just an extension not a CUT. like me saying I kept my old car but you can say I refused to buy new..so it did not stimulate the economy..JERKS

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:19 | 1335482 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The largest tax cut in the last 20 years was a nominal 1% cut to the top? WHOOPDEEDOOOOOO!!!

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:24 | 1335516 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

Captain's Log, Star Date 6.3.2011

The Enterprise has been sucked into QE 666, a Black Hole, where Earth used to be. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-NwMH0JEw0

 

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:26 | 1335524 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

People dont want to listen, or see reality clearly....there will be no QE3 to pump their 100 P/E equities, theyll get their 401K's stolen next and be left bewildered and crying and eating Milk Bones. The country is bankrupt and there are no lenders, simple fact!

The Treasury Is Soliciting Your Feedback Regarding The Proposed Annuitization Of 401(k) | zero hedge

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 10:17 | 1335783 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Sheepdog, I think it will happen as well.  The zerohedge article on it was from Feb 2010.  Do you know if there has been any more recent talk on this?

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:27 | 1335537 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

some of you on the "manipulation" front are off the deep end. I agree i'm sure some numebrs are massaged but it's real easy... The gov't pumped alot of money into the system, kept interest rates artificially low, enticed some buisnesses to hire and a few people to buy homes, gave people a little lift in their pocketbooks via taxes and now it's all wearing off and the necessities that people buy(globally and in the US) have gotten more expensive. 

not to mention the housing nature of the bust, has been a huge amount of the workforce. without a housing recovery it will be difficult to decrease unemployment.

Manipulation?? eh. more like delayed policy impact. 

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:25 | 1335542 Terra-Firma
Terra-Firma's picture

I left the trading room the Friday before the long weekend in the USA. whew.....

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:34 | 1335573 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Everything I've heard for a long time suggests that banks aren't lending, so where exactly is the capital coming from for business start ups to support four straight months of increasing B/D adjustments? 

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:56 | 1335699 j0nx
j0nx's picture

I think you just answered your own question: because it's all bullshit.

Most Americans still lapping the lies down like a cold schlitz though.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:39 | 1335598 Once
Once's picture

Could anyone please kindly explain how this birth/death model figure relates to the today's announced number? I can see it already that birth/death number gives more insights into employment situation but I don't know how exactly...

Are there any simple examples?

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:43 | 1335621 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

The economy is shit and it never recovered-- maybe for the elitards but it sure hasn't outside of that.  Of course with policymakers busy insider trading their own offshore accounts why would they care outside of their own gains-- flying around the world and allowing the raping of other countries in order to keep their precious banking shares on the up and up.

Now get ready for the spin-- if it wasn't for this bogus B/D model in the first place we wouldn't really see any gains at all-- this is still a depression period.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 09:43 | 1335642 wang
wang's picture

Nice mention on Bloomberg of this article and Tyler Durden / Zero Hedge by Tom Keene -

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 10:05 | 1335741 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Who let this unemployment number out?  Changed needed at the Ministry of Propaganda asap.

To all economists : tell the prols the numbers are not that bad...they will believe anything.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 10:03 | 1335744 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

xanax , ativan & prozac production going 24/7 apply within..

a medicated society is a polite society.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 10:21 | 1335819 ellandroadfaithful61
ellandroadfaithful61's picture

Hope this ain't too silly a question, but are economists and

analysts allowed to be right! From the outside they give the appearance

 of always being wrong!

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 10:32 | 1335851 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Anyone got a recipe for bbq illegal?

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 10:29 | 1335855 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

We've gotten to the point where we can't fudge the numbers to produce 'palatable' results without pulling numbers out of thin air......   'birth/death' is a total fraud (nothing to back up the 'assumptions' made)

And even with this absurdity, the numbers stink......     but just wait for the 'correction' (every one of those has been for the worse too, right?)

 

We're as bad as 1932 - only food stamps and unemployment are keeping people off the streets selling apples

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 11:29 | 1336151 viahj
viahj's picture

We're as bad as 1932 - only food stamps and unemployment are keeping people off the streets selling apples

or rioting

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 10:40 | 1335900 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

Pimp Zandi

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 10:39 | 1335901 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

Pimp Zandi said " oil has come down now..." This guy needs to be hung in Times Square.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 11:01 | 1336010 Byronio
Byronio's picture

Ed Rubenstein charts employment at vdare.com he says Hispanic employment has been rising while White employment has been declining, in fact that Whites were the overwhelming majority of those losing jobs during the downturn, so you have Latinos GAINING and the folks who built the country getting lost adrift. Who designed that I wonder?

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 11:20 | 1336090 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

CREEP
Committee to RE-Elect the President
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20500

 

TO: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
2 Massachusetts Ave NE
Washington,DC 20212

Memo: When all else fails, invent small business births creating +200k jobs for the remainder of the 2012 election cycle.

Continue until directed otherwise.

Much love, David Axelrod.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 11:20 | 1336112 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

BTW Tyler: Calculated Risk went on and on last time you posted this about how you can't just subtract B/D numbers from NFP because B/D is not seasonally adjusted and NFP is...

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 12:28 | 1336390 jsmfr
jsmfr's picture

Exactly.  B/D of 206K must be compared to non-seasonally adjusted payroll gain of 682K. Thus, in May, B/D accounted for 30% of non-seasonally adjusted payroll gain. In April the figures were 175K vs 1172K for 15%, March was 117K vs 905K for 13%, and February was 112K vs 811K for 14%.  So, May share accounted for by B/D was twice that of the prior three months.  Big, but not to the degree that mindless comparisons of 206K to 54K are.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 12:14 | 1336342 Bearish News
Bearish News's picture

Tom Keene just gave TD a shoutout. Refreshing how he doesn't just say "some blogger".

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 12:30 | 1336402 mr_fro2000
mr_fro2000's picture

Yes, but Michael Mckee just crapped all over this analysis, saying the B/D adjustment is already taken into account in calcuation...

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 12:28 | 1336400 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

McKee on Bloomberg just equated Tyler with the "Black Helicopter crowd"  RE: theBirth/Death Adjustment...........    :>)

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 12:31 | 1336411 bond trader
bond trader's picture

After Tom Keene cited ZH Mike Mckee challenged the way Tyler used the birth/death model to come up with the -150k number. Tyler please respond.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 12:43 | 1336457 jsmfr
jsmfr's picture

B/D of 206K must be compared to non-seasonally adjusted payroll gain of 682K. Thus, in May, B/D accounted for 30% of non-seasonally adjusted payroll gain. In April the figures were 175K vs 1172K for 15%, March was 117K vs 905K for 13%, and February was 112K vs 811K for 14%.  So, May share accounted for by B/D was twice that of the prior three months.  Big, but not to the degree that mindless comparisons of 206K to 54K are.

Fri, 06/03/2011 - 13:59 | 1336797 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

I think the historically dubious B/D model (and indeed almost any number issued by the BLS) needs to be defended before anyone tries to question disregarding it.

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