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The Birth/Death Adjustment Was Responsible For Over 50% Of The Payroll Gains In The Past Year

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Every time someone brings up the backing out of the birth death adjustment from the Non-Farm Payrolls number (which 99% of the time are additive), economists get all defensive and say you can't really use that number because it is akin to comparing apples to oranges, it is only applicable for the Non-Seasonally Adjusted NFP data (while the numbers that make the headlines are the seasonally adjusted ones) which of course means that the conversion from the NSA to SA number is a product of a multivariate equation with two unknowns (the B/D adjustment and the actual seasonal adjustment). Of course, this is just how the BLS likes it: after all this gives them plausible deniability to blame either X or Y or a combination thereof, but never disclose just what is the culprit for any specific discrepancy. So what does the BLS tell us to do when attempting to eliminate the B/D benefit? Simple: add or subtract the B/D adjustment from the Non-Seasonally Adjusted number. Yet when doing it on a quantized, monthly basis this is impossible due to the abovementioned layering of the seasonal adjustment.

Well, there is a very simple workaround: just look at the Year over Year change in the Non-Seasonally adjusted numbers. After all that will eliminate all the intrayear seasonal adjustments, leaving just two clean numbers at the beginning and end of the full year sequence. This works like a charm when looking at June 2010 and June 2011 numbers, on both a Seasonal and Non-Seasonally Adjusted basis. The difference in the NSA series is 1,171K jobs, while the SA is 1,036K, almost a perfect match. And after all we have been hearing for so long how the administration has added 1 million jobs in the past year.

Luckily, now that we have a benchmark that does not need a seasonal adjustment, we can determine precisely what the Birth-Death contribution to the "jobs added" over the past year has been. The result: 606K, or 52% of the NSA jobs added (and 58% of the actual, seasonally adjusted jobs).

The chart below shows the monthly Birth/Death adjustments between June 2010 and June 2011.

The total is 606K jobs.

And as a reminder, the total Non Seasonally Adjusted jobs added over the same period, a number which encompasses a full calendar year period and thus needs no seasonal adjustment, includes in it this same Birth-Death adjustment.

And as noted above, the difference in the NSA jobs between June 2010 and 2010 is 1.1 million (June 2010: 130,908K, June 2011: 132,079K), and 1.0 million SA (June 2010: 129,981K, June 2011: 131,017K).

So we wonder, how long before someone, anyone, points out that well over half of the job "gains" in the past year have come from a purely statistic fudging of data, based on the same endless growth assumption that destroyed the credibility of the ratings agency excel models, and which has no actual mapping to real jobs?

 

 

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Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:18 | 1437524 glock19
glock19's picture

All that Filipino meat....but no potatos

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:32 | 1437589 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Hey Pal, I invented that Birth Death Adjustment. How in heck doya think I won that Nebel Prize?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:49 | 1437678 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Dr. Paul Krugman,

If you were to advice the TOTUS..errrr POTUS...who doesn't seem all that interested or knowledgeable in economic matters, would you advise him to have Geithner print and sell the equivalent amount of debt that now comprises the U.S. National Debt, in order to pay off said existing U.S. National Debt?

Also, would you advise more shovel ready projects, and in terms of expediency, would having the U.S. Government build shovel factories, to produce shovels, and hand out to all Americans, to allow us the opportunity to dig ourselves out of our collective debt, be prudent?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:34 | 1437948 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

The answer to your questions are Yes and Yes.  Keynes has all the answers

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 23:29 | 1439078 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

But Pauly-Boy... You keep putting the Keynes answers to the wrong questions...

Try this for answers...

Like all PhD Economist from the "right" schools...

It has just one black plastic ball...

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 23:11 | 1439065 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

..errrr POS(US).

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:24 | 1437552 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

why have you not updated us on the T Bill sales after QE2. I want to know whats going on

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:53 | 1437695 TruthInSunshine
Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:28 | 1437554 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Dammit Tyler, there you go again being all logical and stuff. WTF? Drink your fracking Kool-Aide and STFU.

"We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming......right after a few words from our sponsors."

/sarc

<as if I need to use the /sarc tag....but there are a few new trolls who need to be trained so what the heck, why not?>

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:31 | 1437582 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

They will ultimately send the jackals after TD and all others who factually rip apart the seams holding the Matrix together, on a daily basis, and who prove that the Main Stream Media, and especially the vaunted 'financial press,' including that stalwart of integrity and honesty all things economic reporting - CNBcS - is as useful as teets/tits on a bull.

The pen is mightier than the sword, however.

And there are galaxy sized flaws in the code of the Matrix.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:39 | 1437622 Cognitive Dissonance
Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:45 | 1437652 coppertop
coppertop's picture

Hows that pot prescription working out?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:10 | 1437789 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

How's that operation Sock Puppet thingy working out?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:13 | 1437807 coppertop
coppertop's picture

he's my sugar bugger bear

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:30 | 1437909 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

mmmm...delicious taxpayer nectar ftw.

Do you get surf to porn on the your taxpayer paid for computer and broadband, too?

The SEC peeps get to surf porn. Lots of it.

If you don't, you should file a grievance for your union to petition redress for.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:46 | 1438007 coppertop
coppertop's picture

Rock! with your crawford out!

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:06 | 1438096 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Speak English, Sockpuppet

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 23:31 | 1439086 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Another 7 week bitch...

The 9th Rule of Fight Club
Newbies have to STFU and read their first 26 weeks...

You did, Sunshine...

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:43 | 1438245 knukles
knukles's picture

So it's true, Cindy Crawford did get a penis implant?
SEC viewing eligible.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 23:24 | 1439081 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Cindy just has a really big clit...

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:39 | 1437612 hambone
hambone's picture

F'ing A TD,

what are going to mention next?...imaginary jobs added via B/D and real people imagined out of existence in lower participation don't really add up to a recovery?

Your bullshit is costing our gov significant amounts of time / effort to counterbalance (ok, significantly overcome) w/ propaganda.  Then again, I guess I should be thanking you for all the stimulation created to employ thousands (more?) to contradict what our foolish eyes attempt to tell us is reality.  Thank god there are minions out there to reassure us that fairy tales do come true.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:52 | 1437687 hambone
hambone's picture

TD,

you are telling us what we know - that we are being openly, brazenly lied to and manipulated by our leaders.  Totally agree.  And it goes deeper and deeeeeper and deeeeeeeeeeeeper.

So what? 

What the fuck are we doing here?  Hop along and profit from the lies like RT or the like?  Tear it all down?  How?  Just piss and moan and prepare for...?  Sometimes all the knowledge is far worse than none at all.  Like watching a horror flick where you see it all coming but can't warn the victims or stop the outcome...

Yes, of course I'm doing all I can to prepare myself and my family but F'ing A - seems so inadequate.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:52 | 1437693 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

hbone, i think the point might be that these guys and their lying Statisticians could have manipulated this report too.

They did not. Means time for bitter medicine is now at hand. That is how I see it.

Cascading bad news next week.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/07/08/july-15th-aug-15th-month-long-window-coming-up-initial-thoughts/

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:27 | 1438402 hambone
hambone's picture

ORI,

I forget when I'm supposed to believe it's a fraud (disregard) and when they think I'll think it's a fraud so they put out the real stuff (or double down on the fraud)...

 

Sat, 07/09/2011 - 08:59 | 1439386 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Dilemma eh hambone?

Anyone with a weak BS detector in these times will get taken for a ride. Or two!

ORI

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:27 | 1437559 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

They're gonna have to turn that Birth/Death adjustment dial up to 11, post haste.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:31 | 1437586 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Oh no, it only goes up to 10.

"I need more power Scotty. I've got to have more power."

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:49 | 1437674 coppertop
coppertop's picture

You're able to do pictures andd this is what you give us?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:58 | 1437714 hambone
hambone's picture

No heaving breasts, no grand canyon deep cleavage, no gratuitous bouncing flesh???

The mob has spoken and called you a "knob".

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:11 | 1437799 coppertop
coppertop's picture

its funny how you dont resemble a mob at first glance

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:29 | 1437893 hambone
hambone's picture

But on the second or third glance I do resemble a mob?  Makes sense to me as I can barely hear myself think over all the voices shouting in my head.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:01 | 1437717 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I'm pleased to see you are beginning to use capitalization and punctuation. Wonderful.

Now let's work on spelling. See that check mark with the 'ABC' over it on the comment tool bar? That's the "spell check' function.

Repeat after me.    S P E L L    C H E C K

Very good! Class dismissed until Monday. But not before some Jackson Five and their hit single "ABC".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOXG8wtxx_w

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:07 | 1437759 IrishSamurai
IrishSamurai's picture

Good thing you fixed that (capitilation) ... you nearly pwned yourself.

 

 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:22 | 1437872 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Good thing alright. Remember boys and girls, we must always apply a little common sense for those times when the spell check passes a word that is clearly wrong. But that was next week's lesson.

Thank you for playing along at home and we have some fine parting gifts for you as a token of our gratitude. Please send $49.95 for shipping and handling to ZeroHedge.com and we'll ship your prize as soon as Tyler confirms receipt of the fee.

Have a nice day!

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:30 | 1437917 IrishSamurai
IrishSamurai's picture

You must be from the Obama administration ... using the DDD strategy to address when you actually make a mistake ...

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:47 | 1438015 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Where have you been dude? I haven't seen you in like....months. Like many months.

Breaking in those alter egos again without exercising your primary? Dude, get with the program. You know the basics.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:52 | 1438045 coppertop
coppertop's picture

at the man-boy love assn

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:13 | 1438151 IrishSamurai
IrishSamurai's picture

NAMBLA?  Really?

Wow. I. Am. Like. So. Burned. By. Your. Wit.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:12 | 1438142 IrishSamurai
IrishSamurai's picture

Only 1 avatar ... not a frequent poster ... Mark Twain and all that ...

Plus captcha like "BLANK minus 30 equals minus nine" that only allow 2 characters are like putting the dude you jacked in a round room and telling him to piss in a corner ...

Speaking of which ... based on his latest response, carry on ... he's the douche ...

 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:27 | 1437564 inkarri9
inkarri9's picture

Give it a few months.  Isn't that how long it took the Democrats to figure out that Obama was discussing SS cuts before they "realized" was what going on?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:49 | 1438260 knukles
knukles's picture

The Progressives getting lost in the old fashioned Liberal doublespeak lifted whole cloth from the Left's association with the Democratic Party.  

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:28 | 1437569 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

the demographic distribution of death is asymetric.  so economentalist skew it back to a symetrical distribution which means a lot of 30 yr olds are clicking off at record numbers.  But when I read the obits and look at the ages I see a bunch of retired people - long since retired.  I guess maintaining their gardens is counted as a job. 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:33 | 1437597 IrishSamurai
IrishSamurai's picture

Mr. Blutarsky ... the Birth/Death model is for businesses, not people.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:39 | 1437625 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Mr. Blutarsky - LOL

Yes.  Opacity is the key to the kleptocrats' empowerment.  Numbers must be non-disprovable.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:51 | 1438274 knukles
knukles's picture

Yes, like stimulus having created 127,354, 399,405.33 jobs within the last 3.1135 years.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:28 | 1437570 goldm3mb3r
goldm3mb3r's picture

Kick off a war, set up a draft.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:30 | 1437577 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

That script is embargoed until next year...

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:35 | 1437603 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Question: What do you do when you already have a "war" president?

Answer: Easy silly. Make more/bigger wars. Now get back to work slave. Or do I report you to the draft board as available?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:40 | 1437624 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

It appears the current answer is to redefine war as something like "limited kinetic action"

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:47 | 1437656 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

You have just been drafted into the Army psyops public relations division. Please report to your local reeducation camp Army recruiter for further instructions. If you tell anyone about this they and everyone they know will be killed.

Have a wonderfully glorious day.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:33 | 1437934 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

You're not supposed to be talking about killin' in the press release.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:44 | 1437996 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Oh, sorry. Was that my out loud voice?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:33 | 1437594 No Mas
No Mas's picture

What?  We already have four.  Can't we just set up the draft?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:43 | 1437642 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

4? The last I knew, it was 6.  Who's still counting anyway, right?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:37 | 1437964 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

War.

Police action.

Support role.

Non-interventionism interventionism.

It's all the same.

War is Peace! Ignorance is Strength! Freedom is Slavery!

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 19:29 | 1438665 sitenine
sitenine's picture

Apparently, wars are not even considered 'hostilities' anymore.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 21:18 | 1438866 Confucious 222
Confucious 222's picture

We have always been at war with Eastasia.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:34 | 1437600 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Is "fudgy" a Webster-certified adjective, apart from describing brownies?  I can use it in a sentence:

The BLS numbers are fudgy.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:43 | 1437641 small watcher
small watcher's picture

I seem to have forgotten what BLS stands for. It's Bureau of Lying Shitheads, right?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:35 | 1437610 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

If you didn't know already, we are ruled by liars, murderers and thieves. Absolute 100% human filth of the highest quality. That is all.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:51 | 1437688 coppertop
coppertop's picture

it's all so, so cosmic

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:54 | 1437705 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

I was not aware of that. Thank you for pointing it out!

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:35 | 1437613 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

He should have announced to America this morning "I am a fucking failure and I am not qualified for this job or to lead you" Only then might he gain some respect back

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:11 | 1437797 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Methinks you just coined the 2012 re-election bumper sticker.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:43 | 1437635 Fourth Horseman...
Fourth Horseman of the Apocalypse's picture

During the past two months the B/D adjustments have totaled 337k but the Nat'l Federation of Independent Business poll found that the average number of net new jobs declined by 0.23 per firm in June after a slim 0.01 increase in May.  Clearly the NFIB has a better handle on small businesses than the government.  

  Small Businesses Cut Jobs in June After Four-Month Gain - CNBC

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:43 | 1437640 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Lies, damn lies and Govt statistics

...Centuries of BS from this rotten institution and someday, maybe, we'll get the message it is rammed with human scum ...wonder how much longer for society to cotton on?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:44 | 1437644 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Obama needs to just give up and start wearing a red shirt.  The meanings are multiple of course.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:47 | 1437663 coppertop
coppertop's picture

sounds racism of course

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:46 | 1437659 Moe Gamble
Moe Gamble's picture

I miss Mako. Anybody seen Mako?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:57 | 1437718 Wynn
Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:48 | 1437676 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

The truth seems to have hit a bit of a soft patch.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:50 | 1437681 richard in norway
richard in norway's picture

where is greenie? i hope he cashed in before the drop!!!!

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:51 | 1437686 plocequ1
Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:52 | 1437694 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

wall street execs getting paid millions for failed gambling debts & public union thugs keeping their jobs until six figure pensions start kicking in = "jobs saved"

 

liberal arts college masters degreed grads with $100k in student debt working at $15/hour starbucks = "jobs created"

 

 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:40 | 1437978 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Would that be liberal arts based and focused on the classics, or the more contemporary definition?  Although once one reaches post graduate, outside of a career in academia, diminishing returns kick into high gear.  

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:58 | 1438072 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Sorry, to clarify liberal arts ...

  • Economics: learn how to give bankster money then see it trickle down + inflate assets to make everyone feel rich theory then bailout banksters's gambling debts
  • Education: learn how to yell "we do it for children" and get 6 figure government pension with union job security
  • Sociology: how to get 90% of black folks vote for half black presidential candiate just because he is black and don't allow non blacks call that racism, then screw poor blacks anyway with fascist government policies
  • History: rewrite history to make America look good to the world, so that Mexicans keep coming in to do slave labor because they believe they will be treated equally in  pursuit of the American Dream. Also keep native population from running away
  • English: learn to lie to become a lawyer, politician, sales, etc.
  • Political Science: learn to lie to become a politician

I've learned more truth from zerohedge.com than any leaders with above majors which are just empty credentials for elites to justify their status to rule over you.

Education is the next bubble. Harvard is tax-exempt hedge fund incorporated producing corrupt leaders like Summers, Obama, and Bush.

 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:00 | 1438292 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

They pay $15/hr at Starbucks?  

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 20:31 | 1438777 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

In California, yes.

Not much considering that illegal alien house maids can make $23/hour CASH + gov bennies (see Meg Whitman) and police make $90k- $180k/year.

Doctors can make $770k/year working in prisons.

 

Anyone making less than $50k is not lower middle class folks. They are poor!

 

 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:53 | 1437702 rfullem
rfullem's picture

fictious 2005 consversation with Fed NY Geithner

so, Mr Geithner, when banks make a bunch of bad mortgage paper, it inflates home prices. Homebuilders hurry to build, build, build with nobody (like the governor or town mayor looking for reelection) saying no. These companeis hire 2mln people more than would otherwise be employed in construction. When the paper ponzi scheme blows up, 2mln construction jobs are lost indefinately. This will account for about 2% on the unemployment rate. Add the government layoffs due to budget shorfalls (see porperty taxes) and one can add another 1%. Mr. Geithner, this would be bad, right? Mr. Geithner? are you awake?        

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:56 | 1437712 rfullem
rfullem's picture

can someone put up a chart of JPM, all the fines and penalties they have paid, and a chart of J. Dimon's salary? working for the shareholder, Jamie, or yourself?

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:57 | 1437720 coppertop
coppertop's picture

Whwn I was planning my move to Belgium I overcame this small thought

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 14:58 | 1437727 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

Great analysis, Tyler!

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:01 | 1437737 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

You people are over-reacting.

Why is it so hard to understand that we do not need jobs in a Ponzeconomy?

The only "job" in this environment is to steal more than gets stolen from you.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:01 | 1437740 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

with a few minor tweaks, I was able to apply the Birth/Death adjustment formula to my social life and concluded that it is only a matter of time before i am the only single man in the world that Jessica Alba would seriously consider dating.

while I realize that my formulation may indeed be flawed, I am nevertheless quite pleased with the results.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:09 | 1437780 TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

woo hoo small business is BOOMING out there ;)

circus and bread....

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:10 | 1437793 Goldbugger
Goldbugger's picture

Sounds like another False flag event coming soon to a town near you. That will help the Birth and DEATH model.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:19 | 1437845 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Not to be too paranoid (if such is possible today) but it did cross my mind that perhaps, just perhaps, they manipulated the numbers down so as to astroglide the pathway for QE3?

The B/D adjustment (so obviously bogus) is just a red herring to mask the scent of what is actually being done....and all the commentary here latched onto that bogus B/D adjustment. I think it is fairly safe to assume that Ben wants to do QE3, so he is going to grease the skids and make its passage easy.

For all the negativity here, it is good news for those owning PM's or the producers of same....just go with the flow and make sure you are prepared for the civil unrest sure to follow.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:32 | 1437927 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Cut off unemployment after 99 weeks, and allow idiots to move to north dakota where unemployment is 3%.

 

Also allow American teenagers to apply for jobs held by illegal aliens.

 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:52 | 1438044 libertarian_neocon
libertarian_neocon's picture

Our jobs situation is horrible.  If you keep the labor participation rate constant at 66% since Obama was elected (it was at or above that rate for 20 years before it started to plummet in November 2008), the unemployment rate today would be 11.8% (you can see the analysis at http://libertarian-neocon.blogspot.com/2011/07/unemployment-rate-when-fa...).  And Obama is actually blaming this on the debt ceiling talks?  He is so clueless it's amazing.  Like when he suggested at the Tweet forum that manufacturing jobs make more than tech jobs (the exact opposite is actually true according to BLS statistics). 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:37 | 1438213 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Analysis was performed first on Zero Hedge in May of 2010.

Reindexing The Unemployment Rate By America's Population Growth Yields Some Ugly Results

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 15:57 | 1438066 Herbert_guthrie
Herbert_guthrie's picture

Sounds like I need to start sending in all my money to Timmy G in order to shrink the deficit.

Once I am broke, after sending in everything I have to help with the "public" debt, I am going to kill myself to help get the unemployment birth/death adjustment figures closer to reality.

Anything for my country....

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:03 | 1438091 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Timmy G doesn't want our worthless dollars. In fact, he is trying to sell that to the Chinese.

 

US Treasury = US toxic debt salesman

 

Problem is nobody is buying...Japanese stopped long time ago, Chinese and Arabs now. We need a new sucker....too bad that sucker is next generation of Americans themselves.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:42 | 1438241 sheep92
sheep92's picture

YOY changes NSA by household survey...

no high school degree -570000 jobs

high school degree no college -150000 jobs

some college or associates 0 jobs

bachelors and up +720,000

If you are competing with chinese,indian, vietnamese etc. rurals you are in deep shit.  If you made it through a four year college not a real problem.   Unemployment rate for bachelors and above is 4.4%.  Pretty much full employment.

 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 16:57 | 1438300 hambone
hambone's picture

So mistaken.

All that's happening is that the top of the food chain is coming down and displacing those w/out degrees for shit retail or other crap jobs.  But the botttom would rather take UE and/or welfare than work in ag or some McD's. 

Take a quick look at recent college grads and some 40% or more are working in retail.  Crap job and no option as they are in debt to pay for their oh so helpful degree. 

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:00 | 1438317 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Don'y worry, leaders will send more low IQ rednecks into war before they have children. Unemployment rate will decrease as unemployable population decreases.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 17:09 | 1438348 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

Sure would like to know where all the "new" companies are from the B/D model.  Must all be in China, 'cause I'm not seeing them pop up here in SouCal.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 18:36 | 1438545 tom
tom's picture

Actually there should be no important distortion from simply subtracting the monthly birth death number from the seasonally adjusted number. The seasonal adjustment is not going to dramatically change the b/d adjustment, probably never by more than 20% and usually less than 5%. The complex issue is that there are actually two components of the b/d model. One predicts when companies form or shut down based on historical patterns. This is the part of b/d that's responsible for the big negative January adjustments, because typically lots of companies shut down in January. This part isn't making big errors so far as I know. The other component is the notorious one that assumes that any measured company closures are matched by an equal number of unmeasured company formations. This assumption has been consistently far wrong since 2007. This is the part you want to back out, by about half at present I'd say. But it's not published separately.

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 22:08 | 1438972 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

See...
Obama Bin Lyin' really did "create" jobs...

Sat, 07/09/2011 - 19:57 | 1440415 mhjhnsn
mhjhnsn's picture

You discovered the secret to understanding all things regarding govt statistics and budgets: NEVER focus on the change, ALWAYS focus on the total.  If you want to know the difference (the change), get the two relevant totals and subtract.

Sat, 07/09/2011 - 19:58 | 1440419 mhjhnsn
mhjhnsn's picture

Anyway, if you want to compare across exactly 12 months the seasonal adjustment washes out.... same time of year, same adjustment being applied to both

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