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BlackRock's Crystal Ball into 2010 and the Next Decade
By Economic Forecasts & Opinions
BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) Vice Chairman Bob Doll has been putting out annual predictions for 15 years. Doll, who helps oversee about $3.2 trillion at BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, just released his ten predictions for 2010 and for the next ten year. Eleven of the twelve predictions he made for 2009 were right. Below are Highlights of his latest market forecasts.
In general, Doll believes U.S. stocks will outperform cash, Treasuries and other developed economies with S&P 500 rallying another 12% this year reaching 1250 from their Jan. 4 open of 1116.56.
The U.S. is on its way to recovery, but the economy will grow slower than that of a typical recovery mainly due to heavy debt load. Inflation will be a “non-issue” in the U.S., Europe and Japan this year even with rising prices of gold and oil. Dollar will likely remain weak in broad trading range with Euro and Yen.
Doll also noted structural issues in the economy would continue to present problems. Chief among them are
"ongoing consumer deleveraging; a banking system facing deteriorating loan quality and an increasing yet uncertain regulatory environment; securitizations markets still largely shuttered, and a real estate market that may still be healing for several years.”
Emerging-market stocks and economies will outperform the developed world this year. His "favorite secular story in the emerging markets remains Brazil." (Note: Barclays Capital recently warned of a possible Bovespa (BVSP) correction in Q1 or Q2 this year based on technical chart analysis).
Furthermore, he advised investors should prepare for rising taxes following health- care reform and protectionist government policies if the unemployment rate remains high.
Doll favors healthcare (especially managed care and healthcare services), information technology and telecommunications sectors. However, he advised underweight on financials as they are likely to continue to underperform.
Note: Doll’s predictions differ from that of Blackstone Group LP’s Byron Wien’s. Wien's ten predictions for the new year call for the S&P 500 to finish year 2010 flat, U.S. GDP to expand about 5% and financials to outperform the market.
Doll's Predictions for 2010
- U.S. economy grows above 3% outpacing the developed world
- Unemployment to remain high, but with positive job growth
- Earnings rise significantly - 20-30% on cost & productivity advantage particularly from a weak dollar.
- Inflation a non-issue for the developed countries, but oil and gold will still go up
- Interest rate rises on treasury curve - 10-year treasury targets 4.5%
- Stock outperform cash and treasury - S&P 500, should rally another 12%
- Emerging markets outperform
- Health care, IT & Telecom outperform
- More M&As
- Dems stay in control of the Congress
Doll's predictions for the next 10 years:
- US equities experience high single digit percentage total returns, in the range of 6% to 8% annually, after the worst decade since the 1930s.
- Recessions occur more frequently during this decade, rather than only once a decade as occurred in the last 20 years.
- Healthcare, information technology, and energy alternatives are leading growth areas for the United States.
- The US dollar continues to become less dominant as the decade progresses.
- Interest rates move irregularly higher in the developed world.
- Country self-interest leads to more trade and political conflicts.
- An aging and declining population gives Europe some of Japan’s problems.
- World growth is led by emerging market consumers.
- Emerging markets weighting in global indices rises by 10 percentage points.
- China’s economic and political ascent continues.
Doll's Advise to Investors
- Look for quality in all styles and caps.
- Focus on better-positioned sectors - IT, healthcare and telecommunications are his favorite sectors.
- Think about geography - Emerging markets, Brazil, in particular.
- Gains will be harder to come by - Ongoing volatility and selectivity will be critical.
Here is the video where Doll appeared at CNBC on Jan. 6 discussing his latest predictions. His full commentary is available at BlackRock web site here.
Video Source: CNBC
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The Bovespa (BVSP) monthly chart is extremely overbought : a bubble IMHO.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
2010 is 3 dozen years from 1974...you remember '74, the year Nixon resigned...well, 36 years is a nasty political cycle so I'll make my 2010 predictions by harking back to 1974:
Like Agnew, Biden is indicted for a criminal act.
Like Nixon, Obama resigns just before being impeached.
Can't believe its Pelosi, so I'll go with Hillary as the next Jerry Ford.
I would think he would be a bit more imaginative than he was with the events of the next decade. I found these predictions for the next 10 years to be a bit more entertaining and probably accurate. http://drkellegro.com/?p=89
How can you have economic growth but high unemployment? Or is he talking about the companies outsourcing jobs to lower paid workers so their bottom lines look better? This is typical doublespeak for market shills.
Wait..."An aging and declining population gives EUROPE some of Japan’s problems"???
I guess they don't have illegal immigration to help them out with that.
Declining population is NOT a problem.
Overpopulation IS a problem.
as blackrock defaults on some debt
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDazwm4SF52Y&pos=7
He manages trillions of dollars. What is he going to say? Will he say S&P makes new lows?
These are Dick Gephardt's guys who "hit life's lottery" and can be assholes at it.
+100
The word for the next decade is...LESS...of everything.
I predict that Blackrock will buy some overpriced real estate in NYC and then default on it
Everything he said is conventional wisdom. Often this is correct but it's worthless.
Prob the only semi-interesting thing he said is the Brazil focus. This makes me doubt continuing to hold the BZF ETF. But I won't sell just because Bob Doll likes what I like.
i think it is hilarious all you gold bugs missed out on Brazil last year.. you could of bought twice the gold now if you didnt
straw man, no real gold bug ever put 100% in gold
So, basically his prediction is that the status-quo will continue forever. Hmmm.
This guy has only half a ball, a "Polyanna Ball," seeing no systemic crisis. And what about gold, the best performing asset of the decade.
This came from CNBC, so we must take it as real news, info we can use. B.S.
My prediction for 2010 and the next 15 years:
- Record bonuses for bankers
- Higher taxes for working middle class
- More money for the ones who don't work and pay taxes.
(Obama = different version of Robin Hood.. Take from middle class and give it to lower and upper classes, who vote for him and finance his campaign respectively.)
Let go of the hysteria. Relax. Calm.
Perception is all you have.
A train moves slowly, it starts slowly, it stops slowly.
Even if the ultimate end of the train is an unfinished tunnel halfway through an icy mountain in the middle of nowhere, the train must still maintain course until that time.
He's mostly right about the next decade but his advice seems frivolously obvious when he says things like 'look for quality'. This reminds me of a palm reader saying 'you'll meet an attractive female'.
Blackheart Investments group, we're killing our way to absolute economy power over all mankind.
:)
-MobBarely
Palm readings at 3 pm, only $5 per hand. Crystal Ball readings an extra $10. Available for CNBC interviews (for a fee of course)
Here are my ten predictions for 2010:
1. The stock market will go up
2. The stock market will go down
3. The stock market will go sideways
4. Unemployment will go up
5. Unemployment will go down
6. Unemployment will stabilize
7. Dems gain seats in congress
8. Dems lose seats in congress
9. Oil reachs $150 per barrel
10. Oil never reaches $150 per barrel
Okay do I qualify to manage a trillion dollars of assets now?
i quit playing with - and listening to - dolls many years ago; g.i. joe w/kung-fu grip was my last technical advisor.
The dems will remain in control of congress. They'll lose seats, but not enough to lose complete control. I'm not a fan of the dems and I hope they lose control, but I realize them actually losing enough seats to make this happen is very unlikely.
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I don't think that the Dems are particularly decent, but that doesn't mean that the alternative is better... just another side of the same coin, really.
(sorry for the triple post, my computer was being wacky for a second.)
TRIPLE?
Try counting, oh Hairy Palmed One... :)
.
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I don't think that the Dems are particularly decent, but that doesn't mean that the alternative
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I don't think that the Dems are particularly decent, but that doesn't mean that the
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I don't think that the Dems are particularly decent, but that doesn't mean that
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I don't think that the Dems are particularly decent, but that doesn't mean
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I don't think that the Dems are particularly decent, but that doesn't
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I don't think that the Dems are particularly decent, but that
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I don't think that the Dems are particularly decent, but t
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I don't think that the Dems are particularly decent,
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I don't think that the Dems are particularly
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I don't think that the Dems are
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I don't think that the Dems
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I don't think t
Dewd.
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I don't think that the
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I don't think that t
Even if they did lose enough seats to lose control, what would happen? We're right back to where the country was in 2001-2006. Then we'll have a majority full of the people that caused THIS mess in the first place.
I don't
I think it's hilarious that he failed to mention the issue that will be the biggest story of the next 10 years: Peak Oil
911, Glowbull Warming, Peak Oil, three of the big Lies:
By 1951, what has been called the Modern Russian-Ukrainian Theory of Deep, Abiotic Petroleum Origins was born. A healthy amount of scientific debate followed for the next couple of decades, during which time the theory, initially formulated by geologists, based on observational data, was validated through the rigorous quantitative work of chemists, physicists and thermodynamicists. For the last couple of decades, the theory has been accepted as established fact by virtually the entire scientific community of the (former) Soviet Union. It is backed up by literally thousands of published studies in prestigious, peer-reviewed scientific journals.
For over fifty years, Russian and Ukrainian scientists have added to this body of research and refined the Russian-Ukrainian theories. And for over fifty years, not a word of it has been published in the English language
http://educate-yourself.org/cn/peakoilindex.shtml
I can't see it be a good thing for companies to IPO portfolio companies and/or issue more shares of their own common stock. Government is creating interest and optimism in the market so the middle class can be left holding the bag which is now worthless.
Doll is a clown. In 2008 he said to look for strong non-financial balance sheets. Didn't this guy know what counter party risk was.
In 2008, how could you ignore the fact that the average person couldn't afford the average house. In December of 2008, oil was $90 a barrel and climbing. Doll didn't think that would have any effect on "growth".
LOL! OK, this guy has lost all credibility. I don't care if he made some easy calls in 2009 ... this makes it clear that he's an absolute joke.
If Democrat=Republican he is correct. Difficult to argue that.
Quite correct at that! Better yet, just say that the corrupt regime currently running the insane asylum will still be in charge after the mid-term elections.