Blackstone's Byron Wien Singlehandedly Refutes The Double Dip, Hilarity Abounds

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Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:28 | 503138 SheepDog-One
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What does he mean 'The poor performance of the market since April'? What did he expect, +200 point melt-ups EVERY day instead of just every other day? Another permabull 'tard douche nozzle eCONomist.

I say we bring back the stocks...not the phony paper kind but the wooden kind.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 17:02 | 503357 B9K9
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It is important to be able to discern between those who truly believe the myth and those who are pathological liars. Pathological liars, by definition, are sociopaths. That is, they simply do not feel sympathy, empathy, remorse, regret or any of the common human bonding emotions. In other words, they are predators - they are hunting for your money, your life or perhaps both.

There is a long, fine tradition of predatory behavior being used to manage the complacent herd and periodically harvest/cull livestock. Perhaps one of the most (in)famous is:

"Arbeit macht frei"

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 22:04 | 503534 rapunzel
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Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:29 | 503139 Pamela Anderson
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Big Hello kitty and Amanda Drury cleavage....  positive signs for a rally at the close...

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:30 | 503141 LoneStarHog
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As I posted earlier in another thread, the new buzzword is PAUSE!

Such a benign word to replace Goldilocks, Green Shoots, Jobless Recovery, etc...

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:29 | 503288 Cursive
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Ah, yes, the pause that refreshes.  I hope all lying shill street bastards get run over by an out of control Lexus. 

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:29 | 503145 JuicyTheAnimal
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Yeah, um...I've read enough of stuff like this and I've seen enough of the bull shit rally.  When in hell is this dog and poney show going to end.  It is boring me to death. 

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:37 | 503304 RockyRacoon
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Take a little time off from the news input, do a little gardening, go fishing, paint the house.   And when your neighbors come running over to tell you the world is ending, you'll know.  Those folks who had no time for you when you tried to tell them to buckle down and get ready.  Those folks who stopped inviting Mr. Apocalypse to the cook-outs because all you could talk about was the coming collapse.  They are now seeking your advice and counsel.  You can look bored and unconcerned because you are prepared.  Got gold?

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 17:54 | 503444 Clancy
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I'm banking on the apocalypse finally making me popular too. 

I bought four cases of condoms in anticipation.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 18:18 | 503496 Ungaro
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Please note: they have an expiration date. Who needs that kind of pressure?

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 20:19 | 503636 gramps
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Belly laugh. Very nice.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:32 | 503152 Treeplanter
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Double dip? I believe Jim Sinclair's ski jump represents the coming chart formation most accurately.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:32 | 503154 LoneStarHog
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"...we hear his work "product" is much better in two ply format." -- Well, it DEPENDS.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:54 | 503211 tpberg7
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I have decided to print up several pages to make a jumbo two-ply, roll so handy for those large messy movements!

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:33 | 503158 Bankster T Cubed
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what an ass

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:37 | 503167 Biggvs
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Feel free to print out two copies of the attached Wien essay: we hear his work "product" is much better in two ply format.

Laughing my (now very clean) ass off!

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:46 | 503199 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Just moved across town and lost my ass wipe. This will do. Thanks Tyler!

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:46 | 503185 crosey
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"Perhaps employment is the key."

IMO, this tells me exactly where his head isn't.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:46 | 503192 Robslob
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Currently a "toss up" for me...printed paper from this report vs. FRNs?

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:58 | 503221 LoneStarHog
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Are Byon Wien and Barton Biggs from the same single-gene pool?

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 17:55 | 503450 Clancy
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Extra chromosome pool.

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 06:09 | 504149 Snidley Whipsnae
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Byon Wien...Honed his op/ed skills at Pravda?

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:11 | 503249 ewmayer
ewmayer's picture

BW's essay can be condensed into a single short summary, the JFKesque

"Ich bin ein Wiener"

More specifically, ein sell-side Wiener.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:16 | 503255 P-K4
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"Corporations are flush with cash."  I have never believed that this was a positive sign for the economy. On the contrary, to use Ford as an example, they mortgaged the "farm" to build cash and credit for what lied ahead. Their CFO, Don Leclair had the insight and was brilliant in setting up the company for survival in the near-term. This what saved Ford from the fate bestowed upon Chrysler and GM.

Now I see (smart) US corporations playing it safe, building cash positions and thinking not twice, but thrice about hiring decisions and cap-ex. If the economists are wrong about the recovery, and if Washington policies continue to handicap capitalism, then many companies will continue to seek shelter and insurance against failure. This may also explain the M&A activity in light of credit contraction - companies again seeking safety against over-capacity and under utilization.

Lean consumers and leaner companies will survive in the long-term. Exorbitant executive salaries, huge bonuses and perks will mostly mark those companies that are wasteful and do not have shareholders long-term interests at heart. Not be cliche, but only the strong and wise will survive. 

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:51 | 503334 Sisyphus
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On another note, have you guys listened to the interview of Felix Zulauf available on The Big Picture blog. He sees S&P breaching March 09 lows sometime in the future. Fascinating stuff.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:15 | 503256 Ripped Chunk
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Boating accident

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:15 | 503257 Bartanist
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Haven't you heard that Blackstone is the new Goldman and that would make Byron (is it) one of the best and the brightest...

... the scariest stuff is that he might actually believe what he is writing rather than just being another member of the pom pom squad.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:18 | 503261 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

Yep things are going so awesome in the economy that 5/3rd just sent me a letter explaining that they will start reporting my credit card processing transactions directly to the IRS and if there is a discrepancy in my social and tax ID numbers they will automatically withhold 28% of my deposits.


Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:39 | 503311 RockyRacoon
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Say, what?  It's about time you moved to a small S&L isn't it?  I did it months ago and feel great.  Customer service is getting a nice Southern drawl on the phone.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:53 | 503335 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

Yes, I'm researching now. The most favored local S&L made local headlines earlier last year when they tried to foreclose on a business owners property instead of accepting his payoff (it was late) because he owed less than half as much as it was worth. He bulldozed it to the ground! I know him personally, he's a good friend of a friend of mine. It happened a couple miles down the road.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 17:58 | 503454 Clancy
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You're joking.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 18:42 | 503530 RockyRacoon
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Who?  'Bout what?

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:17 | 503262 SignsAndWonders
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confuction.  I think you just coined a new word.  I like it.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:20 | 503263 SignsAndWonders
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edit.  double click, double post.  sorry for the confuction.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:57 | 503269 AccreditedEYE
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For the life of me, I don't know what the hell T. Jam and Stevie S. were thinking picking this guy up. For the sharpest dudes in the room, I wonder how they figured they could pick up any additional $$$ with this guy on the roster.  :/    

Perhaps a life insurance, structure.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:34 | 503298 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Interesting to post this, to balance out with yesterday's likewise informative paper on why we are heading into a severe recession again.

This one seems to have less graphs and interesting pictures. Gee. *shrugs*

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:41 | 503314 Lucky Guesst
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*Warning The above report is a dramatization by an actor portraying a financial advisor. All actors were reimbursed for their role in this paid programming. If you are experiencing any financial pain please seek a professional.  

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:46 | 503324 RobotTrader
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Nice cleavage shots of Amanda and Michelle C-Squared today....

Big moves.....

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:56 | 503343 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Big moves indeed... time for the pullback!

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 20:59 | 503693 Sisyphus
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Giggity Giggity

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:59 | 503349 equity_momo
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Wien , Biggs , Doll , douche bags extraordinaire. One of the only big shot money managers worth taking the time to read is Jeremey Grantham. He's objective and honestly strives for value rather than chasing momos. This isnt even worth wiping with. Wien is an epci fail , a mouthpiece for TPTB. Drivel.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 19:41 | 503591 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

Funny thing about that BG guy's comments; isn't Blackstone due to pay out on a whole bunch of PIK notes (payment-in-kind, as in considerably higher basis points) this summer?

Yup, funny coincidence here....

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 18:16 | 503486 Ungaro
Ungaro's picture

A neurotic builds castles in the sky. A psychotic moves into one.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 21:14 | 503716 StychoKiller
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And -- Psychiatrists collect the rent.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 21:29 | 503724 chindit13
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Wiener-san, I have a question....

In December 1989, with the Nikkei at 38,915.87, Japanese corporations were flush with cash.  They all owned each other's stock and would never ever sell it, so the market PE of 72x was really just about 10x if one adjusted for the effective float.  And, of course, the government would never let the market or property market go down.  You and your then-firm Morgan Stanley used this argument to predict a move to Nikkei 50,000 in the coming year or two.  Just like your "week in China in July", your occasional week in Japan made you an expert on the Japanese economy and market.  You must be so.....culturally sensitive.

So my question...this last twenty years in Japan is all just a bad dream, right?  This Nikkei 9500 is just adjusted for splits or something, right?  Help me here, Wiener-san.  I know you get paid the big bucks for such cutting insight as "perhaps employment is the key".

Oh, Byron-san (if I may), just one small and probably insignificant thing re China...that "30-50% down, and 100% down on third properties" doesn't mean that the 30-50% or the 100% isn't also borrowed.  But you knew that, right?

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 02:37 | 504068 wagefreedom
wagefreedom's picture

two-ply was sufficient despite abysmal absorption

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 03:55 | 504103 burkes
burkes's picture

I don't like to pimp my own stuff, but I can't help it here.  An essay on Wien I did a few months ago ...

Fri, 08/06/2010 - 02:23 | 506586 Privatus
Privatus's picture

A well spoken shill.

Sat, 10/09/2010 - 10:05 | 637644 senthil456
senthil456's picture

There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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