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Blackstone's Byron Wien Singlehandedly Refutes The Double Dip, Hilarity Abounds

Tyler Durden's picture





 

To all the bulls out there, we have a Wien-er just for you. In an essay that is basically a sequel to last week's job application in a second-tier position in the administration by a Moody's strategist and a Princeton economist (yes, yes, we know... oxymorons), the BlackStone head of something, Byron Wien, says the fututre for the market, the economy, and pretty much everything else is brighter than a nuclear bomb (incidentally one going off today would likely send the market into the greatest melt up in history). Lest there be any confuction what Byron's view is: "My view is that the economy is going through a temporary lull and business conditions will improve later this year and in 2011." At least Wien is honest: "In preparing this essay I used research from Goldman Sachs, Lord Abbett, Credit Suisse and International Strategy and Investments for arguments on both sides of the double-dip issue." Mmhmm - that some serious "both sides" source list. And the piece de resistance: "The factors that argue against a resumption of the recession are the strong liquidity position of corporations which have 6% of their assets in cash, a level not seen since the 1960s, and the fact that both housing and autos are at low levels of production and not likely to drop further." Over the weekend we will present an extended analysis finally putting to rest the inane argument that corporations are flush with cash: while true on a gross basis, the net level of cash vs debt, and especially vs equity, is at one of the worst levels in history. This ongoing childish avoidances of the liability side of the corporate balance sheet must stop and someone has to finally shut up these so called sophisticated economists and their endless lies.  Feel free to print out two copies of the attached Wien essay: we hear his work "product" is much better in two ply format.

 

h/t FMX Connect

 


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Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:28 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What does he mean 'The poor performance of the market since April'? What did he expect, +200 point melt-ups EVERY day instead of just every other day? Another permabull 'tard douche nozzle eCONomist.

I say we bring back the stocks...not the phony paper kind but the wooden kind.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 17:02 | Link to Comment B9K9
B9K9's picture

It is important to be able to discern between those who truly believe the myth and those who are pathological liars. Pathological liars, by definition, are sociopaths. That is, they simply do not feel sympathy, empathy, remorse, regret or any of the common human bonding emotions. In other words, they are predators - they are hunting for your money, your life or perhaps both.

There is a long, fine tradition of predatory behavior being used to manage the complacent herd and periodically harvest/cull livestock. Perhaps one of the most (in)famous is:

"Arbeit macht frei"

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 22:04 | Link to Comment rapunzel
rapunzel's picture

sorry

 

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:29 | Link to Comment Pamela Anderson
Pamela Anderson's picture

Big Hello kitty and Amanda Drury cleavage....  positive signs for a rally at the close...

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:30 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

As I posted earlier in another thread, the new buzzword is PAUSE!

Such a benign word to replace Goldilocks, Green Shoots, Jobless Recovery, etc...

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:29 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Ah, yes, the pause that refreshes.  I hope all lying shill street bastards get run over by an out of control Lexus. 

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:29 | Link to Comment JuicyTheAnimal
JuicyTheAnimal's picture

Yeah, um...I've read enough of stuff like this and I've seen enough of the bull shit rally.  When in hell is this dog and poney show going to end.  It is boring me to death. 

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:37 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Take a little time off from the news input, do a little gardening, go fishing, paint the house.   And when your neighbors come running over to tell you the world is ending, you'll know.  Those folks who had no time for you when you tried to tell them to buckle down and get ready.  Those folks who stopped inviting Mr. Apocalypse to the cook-outs because all you could talk about was the coming collapse.  They are now seeking your advice and counsel.  You can look bored and unconcerned because you are prepared.  Got gold?

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 17:54 | Link to Comment Clancy
Clancy's picture

I'm banking on the apocalypse finally making me popular too. 

I bought four cases of condoms in anticipation.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 18:18 | Link to Comment Ungaro
Ungaro's picture

Please note: they have an expiration date. Who needs that kind of pressure?

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 20:19 | Link to Comment gramps
gramps's picture

Belly laugh. Very nice.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:32 | Link to Comment Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

Double dip? I believe Jim Sinclair's ski jump represents the coming chart formation most accurately.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:32 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

"...we hear his work "product" is much better in two ply format." -- Well, it DEPENDS.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:54 | Link to Comment tpberg7
tpberg7's picture

I have decided to print up several pages to make a jumbo two-ply, roll so handy for those large messy movements!

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:33 | Link to Comment Bankster T Cubed
Bankster T Cubed's picture

what an ass

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:37 | Link to Comment Biggvs
Biggvs's picture

Feel free to print out two copies of the attached Wien essay: we hear his work "product" is much better in two ply format.

Laughing my (now very clean) ass off!

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:46 | Link to Comment Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Just moved across town and lost my ass wipe. This will do. Thanks Tyler!

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:46 | Link to Comment crosey
crosey's picture

"Perhaps employment is the key."

IMO, this tells me exactly where his head isn't.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:46 | Link to Comment Robslob
Robslob's picture

Currently a "toss up" for me...printed paper from this report vs. FRNs?

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 15:58 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Are Byon Wien and Barton Biggs from the same single-gene pool?

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 17:55 | Link to Comment Clancy
Clancy's picture

Extra chromosome pool.

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 06:09 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Byon Wien...Honed his op/ed skills at Pravda?

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:11 | Link to Comment ewmayer
ewmayer's picture

BW's essay can be condensed into a single short summary, the JFKesque

"Ich bin ein Wiener"

More specifically, ein sell-side Wiener.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:16 | Link to Comment P-K4
P-K4's picture

"Corporations are flush with cash."  I have never believed that this was a positive sign for the economy. On the contrary, to use Ford as an example, they mortgaged the "farm" to build cash and credit for what lied ahead. Their CFO, Don Leclair had the insight and was brilliant in setting up the company for survival in the near-term. This what saved Ford from the fate bestowed upon Chrysler and GM.

Now I see (smart) US corporations playing it safe, building cash positions and thinking not twice, but thrice about hiring decisions and cap-ex. If the economists are wrong about the recovery, and if Washington policies continue to handicap capitalism, then many companies will continue to seek shelter and insurance against failure. This may also explain the M&A activity in light of credit contraction - companies again seeking safety against over-capacity and under utilization.

Lean consumers and leaner companies will survive in the long-term. Exorbitant executive salaries, huge bonuses and perks will mostly mark those companies that are wasteful and do not have shareholders long-term interests at heart. Not be cliche, but only the strong and wise will survive. 

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:51 | Link to Comment Sisyphus
Sisyphus's picture

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-biggest-lie-about-us-companies-2010-08-03

On another note, have you guys listened to the interview of Felix Zulauf available on The Big Picture blog. He sees S&P breaching March 09 lows sometime in the future. Fascinating stuff.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/the-big-picture-interview-felix-zulauf-2/

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:15 | Link to Comment Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Boating accident

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:15 | Link to Comment Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Haven't you heard that Blackstone is the new Goldman and that would make Byron (is it) one of the best and the brightest...

... the scariest stuff is that he might actually believe what he is writing rather than just being another member of the pom pom squad.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:18 | Link to Comment Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

Yep things are going so awesome in the economy that 5/3rd just sent me a letter explaining that they will start reporting my credit card processing transactions directly to the IRS and if there is a discrepancy in my social and tax ID numbers they will automatically withhold 28% of my deposits.

 

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:39 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Say, what?  It's about time you moved to a small S&L isn't it?  I did it months ago and feel great.  Customer service is getting a nice Southern drawl on the phone.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

Yes, I'm researching now. The most favored local S&L made local headlines earlier last year when they tried to foreclose on a business owners property instead of accepting his payoff (it was late) because he owed less than half as much as it was worth. He bulldozed it to the ground! I know him personally, he's a good friend of a friend of mine. It happened a couple miles down the road.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 17:58 | Link to Comment Clancy
Clancy's picture

You're joking.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 18:42 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Who?  'Bout what?

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:17 | Link to Comment SignsAndWonders
SignsAndWonders's picture

confuction.  I think you just coined a new word.  I like it.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:20 | Link to Comment SignsAndWonders
SignsAndWonders's picture

edit.  double click, double post.  sorry for the confuction.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:57 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

For the life of me, I don't know what the hell T. Jam and Stevie S. were thinking picking this guy up. For the sharpest dudes in the room, I wonder how they figured they could pick up any additional $$$ with this guy on the roster.  :/    

Perhaps a life insurance hustle....er, structure.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:34 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Interesting to post this, to balance out with yesterday's likewise informative paper on why we are heading into a severe recession again.

This one seems to have less graphs and interesting pictures. Gee. *shrugs*

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:41 | Link to Comment Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

*Warning The above report is a dramatization by an actor portraying a financial advisor. All actors were reimbursed for their role in this paid programming. If you are experiencing any financial pain please seek a professional.  

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:46 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Nice cleavage shots of Amanda and Michelle C-Squared today....

Big moves.....

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:56 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Big moves indeed... time for the pullback!

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 20:59 | Link to Comment Sisyphus
Sisyphus's picture

Giggity Giggity

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 16:59 | Link to Comment equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Wien , Biggs , Doll , douche bags extraordinaire. One of the only big shot money managers worth taking the time to read is Jeremey Grantham. He's objective and honestly strives for value rather than chasing momos. This isnt even worth wiping with. Wien is an epci fail , a mouthpiece for TPTB. Drivel.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 19:41 | Link to Comment sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

Funny thing about that BG guy's comments; isn't Blackstone due to pay out on a whole bunch of PIK notes (payment-in-kind, as in considerably higher basis points) this summer?

Yup, funny coincidence here....

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Ungaro
Ungaro's picture

A neurotic builds castles in the sky. A psychotic moves into one.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 21:14 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

And -- Psychiatrists collect the rent.

Wed, 08/04/2010 - 21:29 | Link to Comment chindit13
chindit13's picture

Wiener-san, I have a question....

In December 1989, with the Nikkei at 38,915.87, Japanese corporations were flush with cash.  They all owned each other's stock and would never ever sell it, so the market PE of 72x was really just about 10x if one adjusted for the effective float.  And, of course, the government would never let the market or property market go down.  You and your then-firm Morgan Stanley used this argument to predict a move to Nikkei 50,000 in the coming year or two.  Just like your "week in China in July", your occasional week in Japan made you an expert on the Japanese economy and market.  You must be so.....culturally sensitive.

So my question...this last twenty years in Japan is all just a bad dream, right?  This Nikkei 9500 is just adjusted for splits or something, right?  Help me here, Wiener-san.  I know you get paid the big bucks for such cutting insight as "perhaps employment is the key".

Oh, Byron-san (if I may), just one small and probably insignificant thing re China...that "30-50% down, and 100% down on third properties" doesn't mean that the 30-50% or the 100% isn't also borrowed.  But you knew that, right?

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 02:37 | Link to Comment wagefreedom
wagefreedom's picture

two-ply was sufficient despite abysmal absorption

Thu, 08/05/2010 - 03:55 | Link to Comment burkes
burkes's picture

I don't like to pimp my own stuff, but I can't help it here.  An essay on Wien I did a few months ago ...

 

http://thesneakattacker.blogspot.com/2010/03/feeling-my-bones.html

Fri, 08/06/2010 - 02:23 | Link to Comment Privatus
Privatus's picture

A well spoken shill.

Sat, 10/09/2010 - 10:05 | Link to Comment senthil456
senthil456's picture


There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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