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Blame It On Minnesota: Initial Claims Print At 418K, 16th Week Above 400, Worse Than Consensus

Tyler Durden's picture


The economic disaster continues with the next target of Europe's reverse Marshall Plan likely being the US itself. Initial claims just prolapsed to 418K, the 16th week over 400K, a 10K increase from the upward revised 408K last week (naturally before it was 405K), and a miss to expectations of 410K. Keep in mind this number will be further revised higher next week. Continuing claims was slighly better than expectations of 3,705K, printing at 3,698K, down from 3,748K. The ongoing 99 week cliff problem is hitting more and more people as 132K dropped off EUC and Extended benefit rolls for the week ended July 2. And while 9,681 of the claims were associated with Minnesota shutdown, nothing explains why there was a surge in 20,599 new claims out of New York of all places.

Here is New York's weekly initial claims change for 2011. We just had the 3rd biggest surge in unemployed New Yorkers this year.

And Goldman's take, blaming it on Minnesota as predicted:

BOTTOM LINE: Initial jobless claims rise in latest week. Trend still difficult to discern, but report is arguably a modest negative.

Initial jobless claims 418k in week ending July 16, vs. median forecast 410k.
Continued jobless claims 3,698k in week ending July 9, vs. median forecast 3,705k.

1. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 418k in the week ending July 16, up from 408k previously. The claims figures continue to be somewhat difficult to interpret due to seasonal adjustment issues in the auto sector and the government shutdown in Minnesota. The Department of Labor said that the Minnesota government shutdown added about 2k to claims this week, down from a bit over 10k last week (according to press reports). This change therefore subtracted roughly 8k from claims week-over-week. The rise in claims from the previous week could therefore be explained by 1) a rising underlying trend or 2) a reversal of seasonal biases in the automotive industry. Next week's data will help sort out which is a more likely explanation. At this point we see today's report as a modest disappointment, and expect another rise in claims next week.

2. Continued jobless claims fell by 50k in the latest available week, and the number of persons receiving benefits through the extended/emergency programs fell by about 130k on net.


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Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:42 | 1476558 oogs66
oogs66's picture

first, why didn't the analysts include minnesota in their estimate, and more importantly, aren't state shut downs now part of our economy?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 10:02 | 1476897 fuu
fuu's picture
99 weeks ago today was  08/27/2009
Thu, 07/21/2011 - 11:25 | 1477238 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Throw in 9K NASA LAyoffs now that the shuttle flights are terminated.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:42 | 1476559 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

The July NFP data should be interesting...

Time for QE3!  That should save the world...

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:53 | 1476612 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Less Jobs = Higher Profits!  

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:42 | 1476560 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

it's the heat wave  - nothing to be concerned about

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 10:16 | 1476954 nodhannum
nodhannum's picture

Damn, these things are getting predictable.  Snow in the winter and spring, heat in the summer, better than expected and always upwardly revised as far as unemployment goes.   Sorta boring though, as we slowly settle into the north atlantic.  See you in the PM life boat.  Ummm, does gold and silver float?  In this ocean of debt, I think it does.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:42 | 1476563 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

I will piss in each of your Thousand Lakes!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:44 | 1476572 rodocostarica
rodocostarica's picture

make that 10,000 lakes please. One filing per lake about.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:51 | 1476606 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Fine. Spare time + Gatorade.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:43 | 1476564 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Ah, but news is now irrelevant!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:43 | 1476565 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Blame it on Minnesota and NY, bitchez

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:44 | 1476570 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Actually NY had the worst report. All those high end prostitutes now out of work.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:48 | 1476592 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

In NY, the politicians lost their jobs? When did that happen?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:55 | 1476858 Mach1513
Mach1513's picture

No.  It's there "clients" who lost their government jobs.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 10:17 | 1476960 nodhannum
nodhannum's picture

Can we get 50% off Groupons for those high end hookers?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:44 | 1476573 Quintus
Quintus's picture

I blame if on the Boogie, myself.  Although rumour has it that the Sunshine, Moonlight and 'Good Times' may also be implicated.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:44 | 1476574 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Government workers, teachers, etc...  now getting hacked....the numbers are only going to get worse.  Nice job there re-election for you, and that is what you get for running on a ticket for change, and you put the same idiots who caused the crisis around you in key positions.  How much more stupid can you get?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:51 | 1476598 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

I wouldn't write off Obama yet.  A third candidate could easily divide real conservatives from warmongering big government conservatives.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:59 | 1476630 Bob
Bob's picture

Just as likely is a liberal candidate to split the traditionally democratic vote. We could have a real interesting horse race coming up.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 10:13 | 1476940 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Or stimulus checks of $800 go out to everyone making less than $250k a hair before election time...

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 11:55 | 1477331 Bob
Bob's picture

LOL, if it could be done by Executive Order, I wouldn't be surprised!  But there's that House of R that would kill it in a second.  Barry is gonna be on his own. 

Hopefully, the Tea Party will inspire a "progressive" response that will mean the end of the 2 Party system.  All you have to consider to see the advantages of the left and right "extremes" finding representation is what Ron Paul and Ralph Nader would agree on: The Military, Patriot Act, TBTF, "social" liberties (gays, drugs, etc.), possibly even the Fed. 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:22 | 1477972 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

I think the only way to end the 2 party system is to make legal mandate...  and go to a publicly funded campaign run...  If any inroads are made in this regard, the new blood will simply usurp/cannibalize another party or parties...  the remainder of each being used to form a new party...  It's like trying to headbutt the water out of a swimming pool.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:56 | 1476867 Mach1513
Mach1513's picture

....There's a ... difference?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:44 | 1476575 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

+100 DOW

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:45 | 1476577 DavidJ
DavidJ's picture

Its the jobs stupid!   

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:46 | 1476579 DavidJ
DavidJ's picture

Its the jobs stupid!   

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:47 | 1476585 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

400K, 418K, 408K, 405K, 410K... why are all you unemployed folks surrounding my 401k???

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:49 | 1476595 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Whats up with that? they have the hunger look in their eyes.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:18 | 1476712 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

well done, messy.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:49 | 1476599 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

Doesn't matter. Up we go regardless.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:51 | 1476600 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

and of course good corporate earnings trumps high unemployment.....until it doesn't.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:50 | 1476602 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What I cant figure out is where they found 400K+ people to fire every week for the last 2 years! 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:54 | 1476852 notaFerengi
notaFerengi's picture

I was just wondering that myself. Having been out of work for over two years and watched another laid off co-worker fail again and again to find a job also, makes me wonder what is going on. All the mantras on retraining and more education are just so much BS. I am also watching college grads from last year and this year working at fast food places. Those that still have jobs are scared -nothing has really changed in the last four years - just the corporate profits.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 10:17 | 1476956 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Well, if our economy was 70% service based, then I'd say a lot of people can be found to be out of a job...  aside from the fact that during the run-up, we collectively pretended that about 3 corporate workers were necessary for every job...  management jacked off all day...  plenty of fluff to remove.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 10:22 | 1476973 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Yep, college is a joke.  So many generations are brainwashed into believing it's their salvation.  Truly disgusting.  For +80% of people it's nothing but debt slavery.  WORSE than credit card debt.  At least credit card debt can be discharged.

If you're reading this, you have been warned.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:50 | 1476604 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Government workers, teachers, etc...  now getting hacked....the numbers are only going to get worse.  Nice job there re-election for you, and that is what you get for running on a ticket for change, and you put the same idiots who caused the crisis around you in key positions.  How much more stupid can you get?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:01 | 1476622 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Obama won't get re-elected but not because of anything he has done or didn't do, except for pissing off the jhus. There are bigger zionists out there on the ballot box than him, did he honestly believe that the jhus would let a nigher run the show for longer than was expedient, they simply needed a fallguy for what Bush did so the next (real)president could start with a clean record

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:52 | 1476608 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Bullish for earnings...less costs.  This shows how companies will "beat" come Oct.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:56 | 1476623 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Companies can play the same game Apple plays every quarter.  They guide EPS expectations lower for the next quarter and then beat EPS projections that were much too low.  Seems to work every time for Apple these days.  It is all a game.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:52 | 1476609 Dinho360
Dinho360's picture

Report says Minnesota added only 1,750 claims. So, you can't blame Minnesota.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:53 | 1476610 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Bullish for earnings...less costs.  This shows how companies will "beat" come Oct.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:54 | 1476613 serndipity
serndipity's picture

Obama responds.......

I am a job adder, 14% more staff here in my White House,  many of them by my Michele.

He also added that that the army of unemployed (measured by the continuing jobless claims) came down by 50,000.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:54 | 1476616 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

The parasite thrives as the host dies.  When does Wall Street decide to relocate en masse to Bermuda?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:21 | 1476720 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

Yes Re, and therein lies the paradox...the parasite's success insures it's own demise. 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:54 | 1476617 Cvillian
Cvillian's picture

It seems as those surges in NY are then followed by massive declines in claims. Any explanation for this phenomenon? Just saying... 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 08:58 | 1476626 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

"The ongoing 99 week cliff problem is hitting more and more people as 132K dropped off EUC and Extended benefit rolls for the week ended July 2."

The best way to create jobs is through unemployment benefits (like I've said before) that's why I am proposing a doubling of EUC from 99 weeks to 198 weeks. We also plan to create jobs by raising taxes.

-Nancy Pelosi any day now

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:30 | 1476759 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

they'll have to pass this measure before you can find out if it works.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:01 | 1476635 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

No doubt we're in for another no volume climb in the Dow to prove to the unemployed peasants that it's all in our minds. Things are great, so stop getting in the way of this major recovery.  

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:11 | 1476684 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Economic reports don't matter anymore.  Dow futures up 63.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:14 | 1476696 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Has anyone really thought about these numbers?  I mean really------400k+ people in one week?  For years on end now?  How long can this continue?  It would be different if people were turning around and getting a job but I don't think they are.  This country is bleeding bad, stick your finger in one hole and another one opens up.  We're in trouble.  Funny how some people don't seem to realize that their so-called 'safe' job could go by by  with less and less $ flowing into the economy.  Not good. 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:15 | 1476698 dcb
dcb's picture

markets surging on the news of contraction in china and increased unemployment.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:22 | 1476726 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

It's amazing.  The disconnect between Wall Street and the economy is mind-boggling.  I don't even know what to say anymore.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:18 | 1476713 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Meanwhile futures are booming. LOL.  The 99week cliff continues to be good news.  I don't suspect that can continue to last.  Eventually all the global gobble is going to short-circuit.  You're looking at the results of let's make money now with no regard to what might happen in the future.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:26 | 1476747 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

By the way:

U.S. Consumers Relying on Credit for Basic Necessities

"Consumers, particularly in the lower-income end, are being forced to use their credit cards for everyday spending like gas and food,” said Tavares, who’s based in Atlanta. “That’s because there’s been no other positive catalyst, like an increase in wages, to offset higher prices. It’s a cash-flow problem.”

The swings in purchases of fuel and food have been “dramatic,” Tavares said. The volume of gasoline purchases placed on credit cards jumped 39 percent last month from a year earlier, compared with a 21 percent increase in June 2010, he said.

The value of an average transaction on credit cards outpaced the gain for debit cards, showing consumers are increasingly relying on borrowing to pay for gasoline and other necessities, Tavares said.

“For people to think that this rebound in credit-card usage is actually a sign of resurging consumer confidence, I think they’re looking at the situation backwards,” Rosenberg said.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:39 | 1476794 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Not a bad idea because they can default on the credit cards and settle for around 25%.  That means they're getting gas for $1.00 gallon. LMAO.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 10:29 | 1477018 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

If you look around, you can get 5%+ cash back on gas purchases via credit cards...  Maybe some portion of this is more intelligent consumption...

Also, why the fuck would you say people have to borrow to pay for necessities because wages have been stagnant and they don't have money...  and then make the conclusion that it's a "cash flow" problem?  When are people going to learn the difference between liquidity and solvency?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:58 | 1476878 pods
pods's picture

Oh this is going to end well.  And it probably is not consumers in the low income end either.  They are probably already on SNAP, etc.  They probably have zero credit available to them either.  This is J6P and friends.  

End game.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:33 | 1476767 ellandroadfaithful61
ellandroadfaithful61's picture

Has anyone constructed a post 99'er table, could be/will be seriously large

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:51 | 1476838 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Didn't Cuomo layed off a bunch of teachers? Or, maybe with gay marriage in NY people are quitting the workforce to be stay-at-home drag queens.

Good news Minnesota: Nobody even noticed that the MN state government shutdown. The democrat governor turned purple holding his breathe for higher taxes, despite a GOP budget surplus, and nobody cared. Everything in MN went along as usual during the shutdown except that the state actually even saved more money by only providing essential services. 

More surplus good news out of the following states: WI, OH, IN, MN, AR, SC, ID all reported surpluses, with no new taxes, most with new management and Tea Party influence. 

Why doesn't the MSM report states with surpluses without new taxes? Why can't Washington DC do the same? All politics aside, this is good news and we need all of that we can get these days.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 10:58 | 1477115 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

Check the states you listed - now check the amount of FED stim they are getting?


Want to crow about that good news now.


SHallow ain't the word for it bub.

P.s. shill - wasn't the POINT of YOUR post all about politics?


Then you said .........bwhhhhaaaaaaaa shill clown sheep on dope.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 09:55 | 1476855 gwar5
gwar5's picture


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 10:42 | 1477073 r101958
r101958's picture

"Initial claims just prolapsed to 418K, the 16th week over 400K, a 10K increase from the upward revised 408K last week (naturally before it was 405K)" ....yes, and couldn't print 421k as opposed to last week's 405k because that would look even worse. So, just add 3k on the back end and lop 3k off the front, see, it doesn't look so bad.

"The ongoing 99 week cliff problem is hitting more and more people as 132K dropped off EUC and Extended benefit rolls for the week ended July 2."....Hey, that is just 132k fewer people they have to count as participating in the work force. The more they drop there, the more they can fudge the number when they do July's UE rate.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 11:10 | 1477171 Forward History
Forward History's picture

So, 132k people might have just got added to the rolls of the army in the streets.


Someone help me understand something -- what is to stop a well-connected buddy from just "hiring" you for a week or two and then "laying you off".  Wouldn't that give someone another 99 weeks?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 11:15 | 1477188 r101958
r101958's picture

I think you need to have worked 6 months to qualify.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:04 | 1477904 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Does a Goldmanite Even Know Where Minnesota Is???
No yachts, no ski chalets, no mansions, no coke, no high class imported Russian prostitutes...

Hell it's just fly over country to a "I have a job and bonus because the taxpayer bailed me, and my employer's ass out," TBTF Wall Street parasite...

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