Blame It On The Snow

Tyler Durden's picture

Today's ugly initial claims number has already found its scapegoat: excess February snowfall. As the NCDC charts below demonstrate, February 7-13 drought/snow debt levels were certainly material. This has caused reputable firms such as Stone & McCarthy to speculate that weather sensitive jobs, such as construction, have "probably suffered." Yet with ongoing inclement weather, with today's Nor'Easter being no exception, this "non-recurring" component will be a prevalent one for at least 2 more weeks, allowing pundits to provide whatever explanation they wish to recent not so good Insurance Claims patterns. 

In the meantime, the SA/NSA Insured Unemployment Rate spread tightened marginally by 10 bps and has compressed from 110 bps in early January do 80 bps currently, with the SA Insured Unemp Rate at 3.5% and the NSA 80 bps higher.

And while the national unemployment rate has finally started to track the Insured Unemployment Rate lower, seen by many as a precursor to economic improvement, the NFP number is now expected to also follow the weekly claims deterioration and suffer, courtesy of the intangible, one-time item aka snow. Why blame on the economy something that snow can take all the blame for? Expect snow to be a major factor in Obama's TV conferences over the next 3 weeks (it already made Bernanke's Senate grilling earlier).

 

 

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Anonymous's picture

It's just another snow job.

I'd like to see the employment data overlaid on a districting map, then compare that to the weather charts. If the construction job losses are all in LA and Arizona, then the snow had nothing to do with it.

Anonymous's picture

Didnt you know its the wrong kind of snow.

Gordon Freeman's picture

Yeeeeaaaah...that's the ticket!  It's snowing today, so I think I'll go out, and file for unemployment...

I must now go out and shoot myself

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Expect snow to be a major factor in Obama's TV conferences over the next 3 weeks (it already made Bernanke's Senate grilling earlier).

 

Get some coke, gather some friends, and you have the makings of a Wall St parlor game.  A line for every snow reference?

Gimp's picture

Ministry of Propaganda busier than ever. Keep up the good work. Achtung baby!

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I seem to remember the December snow storms were given as the reason for lower unemployment numbers when December was reported in January. We were told that the snow kept people from filing for unemployment, notwithstanding the fact that most states only accept unemployment claims via the Internet.

 

Postal's picture

Don't mess with the propaganda machine. Oceania is allied with Eurasia. We've always been at war with Eastasia.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Dude, how can you expect me to be in lock step with the spin if you don't put me on the "propaganda alert" email list? Or did you put me on the list and my "spin" blocker is rejecting the e-mails. Let me know, OK? I'll get IT working my side.

Postal's picture

Snow always causes unemployment to rise. It always has. Any other claim is lies spread by Eastasia spies. [/bigbrother]

Trifecta Man's picture

White House says snow crisis is containable.  Plan for emergency bailout of snowplow companies.

bugs_'s picture

Women and minorities hardest hit.

E pluribus unum's picture

The state governments - including the unemployment offices - were shut down for a week in Maryland, New jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Virginia. So these states should be under-represented in claims.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

E pluribus unum,

Please stop injecting reason, logic and "facts" into this discussion. When the washing machine is spinning all other microphones (and brains) are to be turned off.

Howard_Beale's picture

I agree. This is not the time for reason or such trivial truths. It's time to put a pot of soup on the stove and watch the damn snow fall.

deadhead's picture

just what i'm doing....cleaned out the driveway and will have a nice lunch and enjoy the beauty of the snow on the trees......may even sneak in a little mid winter nap and wake up to the nightmare of the Fed doing the 2:30 run after the 7 yr confetti is unloaded.

Howard_Beale's picture

Great idea, DH. Then you can reshovel the driveway when the market closes. 

Rick64's picture

Soup your livin it up. This cat food is nasty.

lsbumblebee's picture

Expect all further forecasts by the National Weather Service to be manipulated.

dark pools of soros's picture

forecasts?? they are now controlling the weather!!

they give out some bad forecasts sometimes to keep people from catching on

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Dark pools of soros,

It has taken the blatant and outrageous manipulation, theft and deceit the world is experiencing to finally break through the "outlandish" barrier and allow people to at least give a second thought to your comment about weather control (control is a strong word because it implies "total" so try "affect" or "influence" for the newbies who are still shaking off the conditioning) along with a closet full of other "outlandish" ideas.

While the world will always have a slice that will reject anything that isn't officially approved and sanctioned, many people are beginning to question everything, no matter how "outlandish" it might have been perceived in the past. Once you take a bite from the apple that fell from the tree of knowledge, there is no turning back, except down the road that leads to further denial and eventual psychosis.

Anonymous's picture

funny how the snow kept them from their job, but it did not keep them from going to file for unemployment.........

would not the same logic apply. Yes, only to "civilized men".

WS and the government are full of crooks.

Anonymous's picture

Does it mean global warming is over?
:)

Joe Sixpack's picture

You are obviously uninformed. Hre is how it works:

 

1. It is "climate change" not global warming

2. If it gets warmer, it is climate change

3. If it is colder, it is climate change

4. It is never just "the same" and never has been.

No matter what the weather does, the climate change banksters will collect their pound of flesh through carbon taxes (given we are foolish enough to go through with it).

 

rootless cosmopolitan's picture

Nope.

Don't be fooled by some winter with more snow in the lower 48 US-states. Globally, January 2010 was the second warmest January in 131 years, nevertheless. Not necessarily statistically significant from the other record Januaries since the 90s, but it shows that nothing has changed just because there is some stronger winter in the 48 states, which only comprise about 1.5% of Earth's total surface area.

 

rc

 

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Depending on the source, the earth started getting cooler between '96-'01.  take your pick.

carbonmutant's picture

Temperature vs. CO2 based on data from the Hadley Climate Center since 2002.

The divergence does not support the claim.

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/TEMPSvsCO2.jpg

 

 

Anonymous's picture

Barometer is dropping...we are so screwed.

A_MacLaren's picture

You're not saying the rationale is a Snow Job?

Bylinka's picture
Bylinka (not verified) Feb 25, 2010 11:38 AM

Well, during the Summer the blame will be laid upon heat...

Selah's picture

 

Is there anything that Global Warming can't do???

 

Anonymous's picture

so no global warming?

if they blame the snow too much...how will they get support for the taxes linked to global warming? stuck between rock and a hard place..:-0

dark pools of soros's picture

extremely moist is usually a good thing

Bylinka's picture
Bylinka (not verified) Feb 25, 2010 11:44 AM

I love mainstream media, they can find right explanation/justification for any event

Anonymous's picture

Any mention of Snow makes me think of his hit song "Informer".

Anonymous's picture

I thought snow removal from neighbor's driveways would be a perfect shovel ready, green collar job. I bet a few thousand were gained in the next 'jobs saved or created' number.

Anonymous's picture

Cloudy with a chance of meatballs...

Anonymous's picture

Off topic but too funny not to share. I NEVER watch CNBC but just now I turned on my TV and it was still on channel 50 from last night's Olympic hockey. As luck would have it, they guy I hate most - Mark Haines - is on asking stupid questions.

He is standing on the floor and asks to guy about the VIX:

Mark: [in his drunken, slurring Harry Carey voice] Sooo...the VIX is up....and VIX is up. What...what...so what does that mean? What's up?

Other guy: Well Mark...it's up because it's not down. We'll keep it simple for you...that seems to be the level you're operating on these days.

I just about lost my shit laughing. What a fucking BOZO Mark Haines is. Seriously, I hate him more than Cramer and Beaker combined.

It happened around 10:47 Eastern time if anyone cares to find and post it. Fucking hilarious.

deadhead's picture

there are some very good lines (cocaine/snow pun intended) in this thread.  keep em coming with the white stuff........

Anonymous's picture

I paid someone $20 to shovel my sidewalk. It was a significant contribution to the economy since it gave someone a paycheck and it was a "shovel ready" project!!

Lionhead's picture

Excellent work TD; love the maps & spread chart. This is professional work in a timely manner! You won't see this on CNBC. Green shoots are getting "snowed" under.

Anonymous's picture

I would have paid him $25 since the recession is over and its green shoots all over...

ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Someone please post the explanation from the BLS that claims were down a few weeks in January due to snow.

The spin is just unbelievable.

jimijon's picture

I grew up in construction... we loved big snows as snow removal was a very profitable business that kept us going. Laborers, rental equipment, operators, etc., 

 

Anonymous's picture

Why would anyone believe any of this bullshit anymore. What are they going going to blame in the spring....hiring off due to pollen allergies?

AnonymousMonetarist's picture

Ask yourself whether the dream of heaven and greatness should be waiting for us in our graves - or whether it should be ours here and now and on this earth.'
-Ayn Rand

'In retrospect, I see nothing that we did that was inappropriate in terms of policy. I do not deny that many appear to have succeeded in a material way by cutting corners and by manipulating associates, both in their professional and in their personal lives. The fact that our economical models at The Fed, the best in the world, have been wrong for fourteen straight quarters, does not mean they will not be right in the fifteenth quarter. History has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums. I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said. The true measure of a career is to be able to be content, even proud, that you succeeded through your own endeavors without leaving a trail of casualties in your wake.'
-Alan Greenspan (compilation)

'He slimed me.'
- Dr. Peter Venkman

Ah let's see, WSJ above the fold, 'Lending falls at Epic Pace', first line, U.S. banks posted their sharpest decline in lending since 1942.

Cross-referencing Jimmy 'Zip-a-dee-doo-dah' Grant : 'Loans and leases were flattish in the opening months of the recoveries from the recessions of 1981-1982, 1991 and 2001, but in no case was there weakness on the scale of today's. There is a risk too, that debt destruction, or de-leveraging, might get rolling again, crushing jobs and incomes as it proceeds. There has only been one sustained de-leveraging since the 1920s.'

Check.

Hmmmm, any nuggets from Bill 'Red Pill' King? The Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that new home sales dropped 11.2% in January to 309k units (360k was expected). This is the lowest level on record, which goes back to 1963.

Ah no worries blame it on the snow... Anything else?

Yesterday's WSJ, Professor Robert Barro, 'viewed over five years, the fiscal stimulus package is a way to get an extra $600 billion of public spending at the cost of $900 billion in private expenditure. This is a bad deal.'

Guess zero hour has passed but heck he's from Hahvahd. Elitist smartypants, don't he know that stupidity is cupidity here on Sugar Mountain?

Guess nothing really earth shattering to pierce the pablum narrative dujour ...

Waitaminnit...

Bloomberg:
'Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the financial crisis was “by far” the worst in history and called the recovery from the global recession “extremely unbalanced.”

The world economy has undergone “by far the greatest financial crisis globally ever,” Greenspan said today in a speech to the Credit Union National Association’s Governmental Affairs Conference in Washington.

Greenspan said that while the economy was in worse shape in the Great Depression, the recent financial crisis was potentially more harmful than that in the 1930s.

Greenspan said he wants the subprime mortgage market to return. I hope we can find a way of resurrecting the subprime market," because it was working well until those mortgages were widely securitized.'

Crickets chirping... er... actually they're laughing hysterically.

Fleck?

'LOL, no, he didn't really, did he??? You gotta be kidding me... He is just stunning in his arrogance... It(the world economy has undergone by far the greatest financial crisis globally ever)has, and he caused it, period.'

What he said. Mr. Greenspan please tear down your wail and go away.

Anonymous's picture

It's funny to watch people who think they're traders sit around and bitch about media. Actually, it's more than funny. It's also funny that TD felt compelled to disprove some bullshit media story replete with charts, graphs etc. This site used to be useful. Now it's bullshit central. I blame it on the new arrivals. Sorry, gotta go. In search of something meaningful. Government and media stupidity ain't it. Neither is a site that has it's manhood challenged by such nonsense.