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Blame It On The Snow
Today's ugly initial claims number has already found its scapegoat: excess February snowfall. As the NCDC charts below demonstrate, February 7-13 drought/snow debt levels were certainly material. This has caused reputable firms such as Stone & McCarthy to speculate that weather sensitive jobs, such as construction, have "probably suffered." Yet with ongoing inclement weather, with today's Nor'Easter being no exception, this "non-recurring" component will be a prevalent one for at least 2 more weeks, allowing pundits to provide whatever explanation they wish to recent not so good Insurance Claims patterns.
In the meantime, the SA/NSA Insured Unemployment Rate spread tightened marginally by 10 bps and has compressed from 110 bps in early January do 80 bps currently, with the SA Insured Unemp Rate at 3.5% and the NSA 80 bps higher.
And while the national unemployment rate has finally started to track the Insured Unemployment Rate lower, seen by many as a precursor to economic improvement, the NFP number is now expected to also follow the weekly claims deterioration and suffer, courtesy of the intangible, one-time item aka snow. Why blame on the economy something that snow can take all the blame for? Expect snow to be a major factor in Obama's TV conferences over the next 3 weeks (it already made Bernanke's Senate grilling earlier).
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It's just another snow job.
I'd like to see the employment data overlaid on a districting map, then compare that to the weather charts. If the construction job losses are all in LA and Arizona, then the snow had nothing to do with it.
Didnt you know its the wrong kind of snow.
Yeeeeaaaah...that's the ticket! It's snowing today, so I think I'll go out, and file for unemployment...
I must now go out and shoot myself
Get some coke, gather some friends, and you have the makings of a Wall St parlor game. A line for every snow reference?
Ministry of Propaganda busier than ever. Keep up the good work. Achtung baby!
I seem to remember the December snow storms were given as the reason for lower unemployment numbers when December was reported in January. We were told that the snow kept people from filing for unemployment, notwithstanding the fact that most states only accept unemployment claims via the Internet.
Don't mess with the propaganda machine. Oceania is allied with Eurasia. We've always been at war with Eastasia.
Dude, how can you expect me to be in lock step with the spin if you don't put me on the "propaganda alert" email list? Or did you put me on the list and my "spin" blocker is rejecting the e-mails. Let me know, OK? I'll get IT working my side.
Snow always causes unemployment to rise. It always has. Any other claim is lies spread by Eastasia spies. [/bigbrother]
White House says snow crisis is containable. Plan for emergency bailout of snowplow companies.
Women and minorities hardest hit.
The state governments - including the unemployment offices - were shut down for a week in Maryland, New jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Virginia. So these states should be under-represented in claims.
E pluribus unum,
Please stop injecting reason, logic and "facts" into this discussion. When the washing machine is spinning all other microphones (and brains) are to be turned off.
I agree. This is not the time for reason or such trivial truths. It's time to put a pot of soup on the stove and watch the damn snow fall.
just what i'm doing....cleaned out the driveway and will have a nice lunch and enjoy the beauty of the snow on the trees......may even sneak in a little mid winter nap and wake up to the nightmare of the Fed doing the 2:30 run after the 7 yr confetti is unloaded.
hilarious DH
Great idea, DH. Then you can reshovel the driveway when the market closes.
Soup your livin it up. This cat food is nasty.
Expect all further forecasts by the National Weather Service to be manipulated.
forecasts?? they are now controlling the weather!!
they give out some bad forecasts sometimes to keep people from catching on
Dark pools of soros,
It has taken the blatant and outrageous manipulation, theft and deceit the world is experiencing to finally break through the "outlandish" barrier and allow people to at least give a second thought to your comment about weather control (control is a strong word because it implies "total" so try "affect" or "influence" for the newbies who are still shaking off the conditioning) along with a closet full of other "outlandish" ideas.
While the world will always have a slice that will reject anything that isn't officially approved and sanctioned, many people are beginning to question everything, no matter how "outlandish" it might have been perceived in the past. Once you take a bite from the apple that fell from the tree of knowledge, there is no turning back, except down the road that leads to further denial and eventual psychosis.
HAARP.
http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/haarp/haarpFactSheet.html
funny how the snow kept them from their job, but it did not keep them from going to file for unemployment.........
would not the same logic apply. Yes, only to "civilized men".
WS and the government are full of crooks.
Does it mean global warming is over?
:)
You are obviously uninformed. Hre is how it works:
1. It is "climate change" not global warming
2. If it gets warmer, it is climate change
3. If it is colder, it is climate change
4. It is never just "the same" and never has been.
No matter what the weather does, the climate change banksters will collect their pound of flesh through carbon taxes (given we are foolish enough to go through with it).
Nope.
Don't be fooled by some winter with more snow in the lower 48 US-states. Globally, January 2010 was the second warmest January in 131 years, nevertheless. Not necessarily statistically significant from the other record Januaries since the 90s, but it shows that nothing has changed just because there is some stronger winter in the 48 states, which only comprise about 1.5% of Earth's total surface area.
rc
Depending on the source, the earth started getting cooler between '96-'01. take your pick.
Temperature vs. CO2 based on data from the Hadley Climate Center since 2002.
The divergence does not support the claim.
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/TEMPSvsCO2.jpg
Barometer is dropping...we are so screwed.
You're not saying the rationale is a Snow Job?
Well, during the Summer the blame will be laid upon heat...
Is there anything that Global Warming can't do???
so no global warming?
if they blame the snow too much...how will they get support for the taxes linked to global warming? stuck between rock and a hard place..:-0
extremely moist is usually a good thing
I love mainstream media, they can find right explanation/justification for any event
Any mention of Snow makes me think of his hit song "Informer".
I thought snow removal from neighbor's driveways would be a perfect shovel ready, green collar job. I bet a few thousand were gained in the next 'jobs saved or created' number.
Cloudy with a chance of meatballs...
Off topic but too funny not to share. I NEVER watch CNBC but just now I turned on my TV and it was still on channel 50 from last night's Olympic hockey. As luck would have it, they guy I hate most - Mark Haines - is on asking stupid questions.
He is standing on the floor and asks to guy about the VIX:
Mark: [in his drunken, slurring Harry Carey voice] Sooo...the VIX is up....and VIX is up. What...what...so what does that mean? What's up?
Other guy: Well Mark...it's up because it's not down. We'll keep it simple for you...that seems to be the level you're operating on these days.
I just about lost my shit laughing. What a fucking BOZO Mark Haines is. Seriously, I hate him more than Cramer and Beaker combined.
It happened around 10:47 Eastern time if anyone cares to find and post it. Fucking hilarious.
there are some very good lines (cocaine/snow pun intended) in this thread. keep em coming with the white stuff........
I paid someone $20 to shovel my sidewalk. It was a significant contribution to the economy since it gave someone a paycheck and it was a "shovel ready" project!!
Excellent work TD; love the maps & spread chart. This is professional work in a timely manner! You won't see this on CNBC. Green shoots are getting "snowed" under.
I would have paid him $25 since the recession is over and its green shoots all over...
Someone please post the explanation from the BLS that claims were down a few weeks in January due to snow.
The spin is just unbelievable.
I grew up in construction... we loved big snows as snow removal was a very profitable business that kept us going. Laborers, rental equipment, operators, etc.,
Why would anyone believe any of this bullshit anymore. What are they going going to blame in the spring....hiring off due to pollen allergies?
Ask yourself whether the dream of heaven and greatness should be waiting for us in our graves - or whether it should be ours here and now and on this earth.'
-Ayn Rand
'In retrospect, I see nothing that we did that was inappropriate in terms of policy. I do not deny that many appear to have succeeded in a material way by cutting corners and by manipulating associates, both in their professional and in their personal lives. The fact that our economical models at The Fed, the best in the world, have been wrong for fourteen straight quarters, does not mean they will not be right in the fifteenth quarter. History has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums. I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said. The true measure of a career is to be able to be content, even proud, that you succeeded through your own endeavors without leaving a trail of casualties in your wake.'
-Alan Greenspan (compilation)
'He slimed me.'
- Dr. Peter Venkman
Ah let's see, WSJ above the fold, 'Lending falls at Epic Pace', first line, U.S. banks posted their sharpest decline in lending since 1942.
Cross-referencing Jimmy 'Zip-a-dee-doo-dah' Grant : 'Loans and leases were flattish in the opening months of the recoveries from the recessions of 1981-1982, 1991 and 2001, but in no case was there weakness on the scale of today's. There is a risk too, that debt destruction, or de-leveraging, might get rolling again, crushing jobs and incomes as it proceeds. There has only been one sustained de-leveraging since the 1920s.'
Check.
Hmmmm, any nuggets from Bill 'Red Pill' King? The Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that new home sales dropped 11.2% in January to 309k units (360k was expected). This is the lowest level on record, which goes back to 1963.
Ah no worries blame it on the snow... Anything else?
Yesterday's WSJ, Professor Robert Barro, 'viewed over five years, the fiscal stimulus package is a way to get an extra $600 billion of public spending at the cost of $900 billion in private expenditure. This is a bad deal.'
Guess zero hour has passed but heck he's from Hahvahd. Elitist smartypants, don't he know that stupidity is cupidity here on Sugar Mountain?
Guess nothing really earth shattering to pierce the pablum narrative dujour ...
Waitaminnit...
Bloomberg:
'Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the financial crisis was “by far” the worst in history and called the recovery from the global recession “extremely unbalanced.”
The world economy has undergone “by far the greatest financial crisis globally ever,” Greenspan said today in a speech to the Credit Union National Association’s Governmental Affairs Conference in Washington.
Greenspan said that while the economy was in worse shape in the Great Depression, the recent financial crisis was potentially more harmful than that in the 1930s.
Greenspan said he wants the subprime mortgage market to return. I hope we can find a way of resurrecting the subprime market," because it was working well until those mortgages were widely securitized.'
Crickets chirping... er... actually they're laughing hysterically.
Fleck?
'LOL, no, he didn't really, did he??? You gotta be kidding me... He is just stunning in his arrogance... It(the world economy has undergone by far the greatest financial crisis globally ever)has, and he caused it, period.'
What he said. Mr. Greenspan please tear down your wail and go away.
It's funny to watch people who think they're traders sit around and bitch about media. Actually, it's more than funny. It's also funny that TD felt compelled to disprove some bullshit media story replete with charts, graphs etc. This site used to be useful. Now it's bullshit central. I blame it on the new arrivals. Sorry, gotta go. In search of something meaningful. Government and media stupidity ain't it. Neither is a site that has it's manhood challenged by such nonsense.
Don't let the door hit you in the . . .
ass cupcake!
Good way of rationalizing the treason perpetuated by the government and media.
Doelarr to continue to spin at DXY 80-82 for another week or two. gold to make a slow and volatile move back to $1125 an oz (within a week or two). Note; the price of the IMF gold will be $1250 when sold to China (or other suitors, see lsit at IMF post). Yen to stay in the range of 88-91, and the Euro to stay in the range of $1.34-$1.36. DJ to stay in range of 10,200-10,500.
Then HYPERINFLATION! gradually, of course. you heard it here first, remember that ;)
Never underestimate the replacement power of SNOW within an inflationary spiral...
Or the power of the pablum narrative in a deflationary one.
I have owned my business for 27 years. We used to advertise monthly in the Metro newspaper for the lower end turn-over jobs at my business. We haven't run an ad in 9 months, and I have absolutely no turn over now. We have recieved a call from this large metro newspaper twice in the last month, from our old rep, inquiring about running spring ads. I told her we had no plans of hiring this spring, she said, "That's what all my old clients say, but management is going to have us call every week to try to generate ad revenue". We have had 3 people walk into our office in the last month to drop of resumes. Never have seen anything like this in my career. Bizarre.
When I visualize a V shape at 'stall speed' its' an upside down V.
Always an excuse when you don't want to face facts. Economy still sucks. Green shoots never were. Obama sucks and his policies suck. Only snowjob were got was the one from Washington.
On a positive note, SMSI ups nice on very strong earnings.
http://finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=SMSI&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
A fantastic learning opportunity. Last snowstorm, I paid my neighbor's kid $20 to shovel my walk, and he paid my kid $20 to shovel his. Outcome: both kids are fully employed, courtesy of our quasi-governmental largesse. We have learned our lessons well, however, and did not stop there. We noticed that a certain not-insignificant number of snowblowers purchased by our neighbors under "buy now and interest free- if you pay by December 31, 2010" incentive programs were then sitting idle, so we have paid a couple of those owners to blow snow back onto everyone's sidewalk and driveways in order to help others find work. Activity begets activity, and the once silent streets and byways are now filled wth the busy and productive sounds of kids shoveling and adults snow blowing.
LOL
Sounds like a government sponsored circle jerk.
the new economy....I am being serious.
The "editors" of Tass in the Soviet Era had nothing on today's Ministry of Truth.
What a bunch of idiots. Really, a construction company is going to lay off workers because it snowed, leaving their project unfinished?!? Um, no, they are going to tell them to stay home until the snow stops, then come back and do extra work/overtime to clean up the snow and get back on schedule.
They don't even pretend to be trying to make sense anymore.
The 'Blame it on the Snow' theory is about as fake as BLAME IT ON THE RAIN...yeah...yeah...Milli Vanilli.
It's now going to take treatment with a wire brush and lye soap to get that God-awful song out of my head.
Damn you!
(Smile)
Question? if the weather is the reason for the higher unemployment, and the cold winter with record snow falls continue to pile up. Would you think that Hot Water boilers would be a hot item this year. Surely many companies would be wanting to purchase new boilers if their old boilers were breaking down due to the extreme cold temperatures this year.
In the past, this would be a great year for the selling of hot water heaters and boilers that the company I work for manufactures. Yet in the beginning of January, I and other employees were put on a three day work week due to lack of sales. Business is dead in the water. Very few of our products are going out the door at the time of the year when we are normally very busy.
You can't blame the cold and snowy weather for our lack of business. Our customers continue to say they can't get the loans from banks to purchase our products. We won't sell anything unless we get paid first.
I can only hope now that I can at least remain on a three day week. Our work force is down to 17 employees. A year ago, the company let 4 employees go. They will never be back under the current conditions. That means they have been unemployed for about a year.
In the past, when the economy was good, we would be working a full week and often overtime. Those days are gone. Its not the snow thats causing this mess. Its the financial mess that the country is buried under. Until the banks start to lend again to small business, nothing is going to get better for a long time.
Hows that Hope and Change working?
Straight from the Economy's mouth. Thank you.
Hope & change is working as well as a limited foreign policy did. Both, check that, all of the hot air emitted not by your products, but our political class now fails to warm any hearts that know that our economy is locked in a frozen condition due to the horrendous mismanagement of it by the federal reserve and its member institutions..
It snowed: you’re fired.
Where did all the melting stimulus go? Down the drain. “Based on the Recovery.gov data, we can see that half of the stimulus money went to the Department of Education (make sure you go to page 10 and stare at those Advance Beauty College Inc. grants). --Reason
IF MEASURED BY THE RETENTION RATE OF LOUSY
TEACHERS THEN YES THE STIMULUS WAS A SUCCESS | Reason | 02/23/10
Over at Big Government last week, Reason columnist and Contributing Editor Veronique De Rugy did one of the things she does best: create a chart to bum us out. Here 'tis:
Explainer:
In this chart, I compare seasonally adjusted unemployment rates across segments of the economy, dividing these segments using the super-categories designated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The chart compares the unemployment rates in January of 2009 (blue) with the unemployment rates in these same sectors a year later (yellow). (FYI, the difference would be even more dramatic if I had used not seasonally adjusted data)
In both years, the unemployment rate within the government has been small relative to the level of unemployment within the entire economy, and particularly so relative to the private sector. In the course of a year, government employment has decreased by 296,000 jobs to 4.3% unemployment; during the same period, employment in the private, non-agricultural, sector has decreased by 2.3 million jobs to 11.1%. (And if you look at not seasonally adjusted unemployment data, the lose of private jobs reached 3.1 million and the lose of public jobs is roughly 70,000. That's quite a gap.)
De Rugy has more in this vein over at National Review's The Corner, in rebuttal to stimulus-lovin' California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger:
Schwarzenegger added, "I have been the first...of the Republican governors to come out and to support the stimulus money because I say to myself, 'This is terrific,' and anyone that says that it hasn't created a job, they should talk to the 150,000 people that have been getting jobs in California."
But when the interviewer asked him whether these jobs were created in the private sector, he paused and said something uncertain like "Yes, private and public sector jobs."
Well, not exactly. Based on the Recovery.gov data, we can see that half of the stimulus money went to the Department of Education (make sure you go to page 10 and stare at those Advance Beauty College Inc. grants).
Seems pretty simple to me. When you take taxpayer money and use it to back-fill public employee pensions and blown-out state budgets, that means the few are profiting at the expense of the many, even though the few have done very little to demonstrate that they are more worthy (quite the opposite, actually). The tension between the haves and the have-nots in this case is both unaffordable fiscally and unsustainable politically. Something has to give, and soon.
http://reason.com/blog/2010/02/23/if-measured-by-the-retention-r
Later Schwarzenegger admitted that it wasn’t just new jobs, it also included jobs “saved.”
There actually is truth to this. I work for a company that produces building materials. Our customers are delaying delivery of materials to construction job sites due to the ground being frozen and covered in snow/ice. For the record, shipping out of Denver to mostly sites in western Kansas/Nebraska.
Well they have to blame something and it's no longer fashionable to blame the Republicans since
#1 they need their support to get any bill through congress and
# 2 Since our community organizer has already taken credit for saving the economy.
Another HAARP false flag attack...what's next, and earthquake in California?!?
Is there any clarification available on why the EUC number went down? It's a 5% decrease. It would seem that there would be statistics regarding whether this was due to expiration i.e. dropping off the roll or if people had left before benefits ran out.
heh. Remembering that the major declines in employment were felt most keenly in the Midwest and West make the protests of a Northeastern implication false.
And this summer there will be no new jobs cuz "it's just to damn hot to work."
This Fall there will be no new jobs cuz the trees are losing there leaves to fast...
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