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Blame It On Tiger - Volume Abysmal
It seems traders are just waiting for the day when 10 blocks of ES move the market by 10%, and represent all the daily volume. Because at this rate we will get there in less than a year, just in time for the Dow to hit 36,000. At 0.751MM ESM0 volume is 40% below the trendline average by this point in the day. In a week we would be at half; in a year - 99%? The Prime Dealers and Liberty 33 is more than happy with this: it simply means much less capital has to be allocated to push the market in any one direction as moves in the broader market now have absolutely no breadth.
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As a momo fan myself , there is one major flaw that all the 2009 and now 2010 momo's are missing. Momo does not exist in a world of receding volume.
Momo is nothing without volume.
ITS_A_TRAP!
I suppose that will become all too apparent a month after the eventual reversal. I can't believe it hasn't happened yet. We've got one sovereign, albeit a tiny banana republic, that is on the verge of defaulting and equities march higher. Wow.
Remember '08? Well, that was nothing. When this thing decide to turn, it'll be many more times worst than what we've recently experienced. There's no more tools in the shed to deploy except for devaluation. Look for that unprecedented experience of DJIA4000.
Remember that Dow 4000 is simply far too painful for the government to even consider. They will print $100 trillion dollars and subsidize everything under the sun before they allow that to happen. It's only when the rest of the world stops buying into this that the unraveling will happen.
They have far too many tools to prevent that from ever happening anyway.
Beyond the quantitative easing, they can have Goldman and JP Morgan gobble up SPY shares, gun the futures up on Sunday nights, or even push the market up directly with flash algos.
It's funny ... My Corporate Finance class at Wharton is covering the concept of "efficient markets." So hard for me to listen to that without laughing out loud.
Markets are based on what again? Earnings and dividends?
Wow, yes, maybe back in the 1920s ... Now, after all of the dot-com mania, the October '08 bank terror crash, the quantitative-easing-driven bounce-back of March '09-March '10, the entire market has basically become one big volatility bucket, hasn't it, with every stock in the market basically just following the index ...?
Technicals ~ Huntsman
Funnymentals ~ DRL
Siegel ~ ENIAC
why just one tiny Banana republic...most major western economies are on verge of defaulting .....its JUST NOT IN NEWS
But for some the shinny lure of a slow melt up is becoming irresistible. It clouds the mind and distracts the senses. Even if you're on high alert, it looks like a great party's going on and you're sucking hide teat. Even I feel the irresistible pull.
A friends child in college did an experiment for his psychology class and enlisted the entire class of 20. They went to a local mall and did the following. They dispersed themselves among the crowd in the center court and then one by one, each kid starting shouting for others to come this way, they need to see this. The kids would then run down the same side corridor after shouting.
For the first 3 or 4 no one followed, but by the time the 5th person started shouting, everyone had stopped in their tracks and they were edging towards the corridor. By the 6th shout and dash, everyone was rushing towards the corridor. The herd had been moved. The kids who remained all went about their business. The 6 who had run off had been smart enough to realize they didn't want to hang around once the crowd found out they had been manipulated so they exited out a side door.
Very telling.
It's called the 100th monkey effect...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundredth-monkey_effect
Who needs volume--we have the Plunge Protection Team!
we are now 27 for 31 on SPY for the first day of the week since Sept 2009. that is an 87.1% success rate if you had opened positions in SPY at the end of the week since Sept 2009 (and closed on the first day of the following week). average gain per SPY trade in that time period is 0.7%!
call it data mining if you wish, but i believe the penny landing on heads 99 times in a row means both sides of the penny have heads on them.
whether it is mutual funds, futures ramping, or a bull market is up to you to decide.
So, Tyler, you're not saying stock market up....are you?
DavidC
How are they going to scare up some Treasury buyers this week if they keep melting up equities???
No need to steal from equities, as there is also infinite demand for Treasury debt.
Volatility and risk have been banished by the all-powerful Fed/PD cabal. All that's required now is to buy the market every day at open and watch it drift up .5%. Worries about debt, deficits, volume, etc will only lead to anguish and confusion and losses - capitulate and bow before the wizards of the Fed.
Could be because most of Europe is shut for a holiday?
Little relevant or not at all. The -40% can not be explained by the lack of participation from the EU side. The contribution from EU desks is far smaller than that.
If a tree falls in the woods, does the market still go higher?
Yes, because that tree is immediately chopped up and turned into paper, upon which dollar bills are printed, which are then dropped from a helicopter by Ben Bernanke.
The adjusted monetary base has not been updated since the week of March 26. Prior to that, the base was trending down. No doubt money is being tightened but the FED chooses to not to reveal this fact..... Only traders without this knowledge are in the market now. A correction is a high probability. Opportunities abound for Dr. No.
This market is like an old man who took Viagra. Last painfully long. It may kill this poor guy.
why do we need volume?
we have fake economic data...
fake money....
why can't we have a fake stock market climb?
tell me that!!!!
Exactly!
Why, I tell you, this endless fountain of stock market prosperity is double-plus good.
Our continued prosperity under Great Leader Obama must never be doubted.
The Leader gives us Hope.
The notion that our nation's currency needs to be tied to something "real," such as that old-fashioned barbaric relic called gold, or that our market should be tied to something "real," such as those old-fashioned "volume" and "fundamentals," is thoughtcrime and must not be tolerated.
+1
The only breadth in the equity market is the short squeezes; a very clever way to make the advance/decline line stay positive. This manipulation has been well planned to fool most.
From Michael Panzer last week:
Based on data going back 90 years, whenever the 12-month rate of change (ROC) in the Dow Jones Industrials Average has exceeded 40 percent, it has generally signaled trouble ahead.
In three cases, a 12-month ROC above that level has only marked a short-term pause, after which the market traded higher.
But on 11 other occasions, similarly rapid advances have been followed by notable corrections, including the collapses that followed the 1929 and dot-com era peaks, as well as the 1987 crash.
Given those odds, increasingly exuberant bulls might want to have a rethink.
when in doubt scream "Iraqi war criminals" and see who comes runnin'.
It's like the Hindenburg; full of hot gas and innocent passengers.
+1
Mark my words. TPTB will support the bitch until the elections pass, then it's an open game with little or no rules. Expect a reversal in the Q4-10/Q1-11, possibly trading down for 2Q-11/sideways the rest of '11 with a big upside swing just in order for the DJIA to hit an all time high at the time of the presidential elections. If i were to trade i would arange my trades according to FA and not TA. 2012 will mark a record year for equities because The Great Father and Powerful Leader of Glorious Nation of USSA wishes so.
- Jus'sayin'
The price of further gains in the stock market is gasoline heading to the moon. Gasoline prices trump stock prices in elections.
Well, AFAIK, the gasoline price follows the equities, not the other way around. So there will be a convenient price divergence "hole" in '12 where the price of gasoline will trail the rise in the equities but will not mimic it as in the latest rally. Obama is going for another mandate and he will "win" it. And he can do that if and only if the market brakes record price, gas stays in the 3-3.35 range and unemployment closes below 8. With all the statistical contributions [read; outright fraud] when it comes to counting unemployed and the fact that millions lost benefits as of today, and are dropped from the statistic, not an impossible task to do. But again, i follow my own logic, which is rarely a good thing.
House prices , mortgage rates and gasoline are all more important than vaporized 401ks to the electorate. I think Barry O will work that out soon enough and order the Full Court Press in aid of USTs. Stocks have to get whakced. No other solution.
Yes, and what's scary is the possibility of a reflexive effect that then acts as a thermostatic mechanism that dulls the recovery. Economy goes up -> gas prices go up -> economy can't handle the higher gas prices and backs off from the recovery
Couldnt it be also because its a holiday in Europe today that makes it so dramatic?
(In best Kirk, Wrath of Khan imitation)
T-T-I-I-I-G-G-G-G-G-G-E-E-R-R--!!!!!!!
(Sorry its my monthly quota guys)
Um, BB has the news as market up based on jobs report. So nothing at all to do with the sovereign debt crisis. Come on guys get a clue!!
cheeky, we all thought the same thing in 2008 with the presidential elections, but they weren't able to hold the market together then.
the populace/market will probably continue happily along until the census jobs start to go away in Q3, or until mortgage rates/treasury rates rise substantially, or until anyone cares about sovereign or state issues... trailing off...
i am sick of trying to think it out, or use fundamentals, or use technicals. i want justice. i want all of us to band together and demand change.
You're among the underground with the very same sentiments.
its easter monday what do you expect?
Other than TBT and AA (serial earnings disappointment) I've pulled all my short positions. This thing will be 13k by the elections. No telling where oil, gas, gold and silver will be... But higher. Bernanke is gunning the Titanic boat over the falls...
Can someone remind Washington what the penalty is for debasing our coinage....
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