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Bleaker Fed Fund Outlook Now Than At Bottom Of Market
The poll for what the Fed Fund Rate will be on December 16 indicates that a progressively higher number of people see no chance of a rate increase (or vote in the 0.25% bracket) compared to a majority who in March saw a marginal increase to 0.5%. Inflation - good luck with that. The people have spoken, and deflation is here to stay.
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This piece of CrapNBC must be watched. Look at the face of the bitch while telling her lies. Also is incredible the complacency ass sucking behavior of the so called journalists the entire thing appear to be scripted.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32315226
no more CNBS commercials! stay away from the link!!!
Agreed... CNBC viewership would be down more than 28 percent if Zero Hedgers would stop visiting the website and videos. They get ad revenue off of all those views. Boycott (C)hunky (N)ugget (B)ull (C)rap!
LOL
I gave up watching them some time earlier this year, when I got tired of creamer. Now I just send them a nasty-gram using their "fast-mail" about once a week. Everyone should do the same, Forget they exist completely.
I refuse to even watch posted links.
CNBS is persona non grata.
ECHO
Cohen looks like she's on some zombie drug or talking to toddlers.
Abbey Cohen is a..........just pick the expletive of your choice.
great piece of ass
good lord....what a circle jerk...while her points are really whats driving this markets...the misleading, "everything is wonderful ( with Federal Taxpayer backstops) and 1 time effects, inventory restocks,y/y comps,even the spx delistings....the consumer is retrenching even faster...and this will play out over years, not quarters
IMO any time someone talks robotically like that they are usually lying and/or under stress. It's indicative of someone very carefully choosing their words.
She gets a little looser once she starts rolling, but there's still microhesitations indicating she's being reaaaaly careful.
Looks to me like they need more retail to buy into the correction.
Just wait for real deflationary expectations to set in..
Goldman Sachs' Cohen: New bull market has begun
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Goldman-Sachs-Cohen-New-bull-rb-2503580416...
Time to get out!
Man I am so glad I sold those GS calls this AM, in n out baby...
the depression is here to stay
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/08/dismal-unemployment-s...
ahaha- the Curse Of The Abby is upon us. Works every time - she talks, market tanks!!
but I like the chart, it looks like the Bear Mountain we are on
Can anyone explain to me the disconnect between deflation, and the dollar getting pummeled? Weaker dollar and deflation?
Poor people drowning in debt = Demand destruction = prices down
leading to
Supply destruction = prices back up
Poor people = Loss of tax revenue = higher taxes
QE = fear of (and ultimately) inflation = weaker USD
Weaker USD = higher energy + higher imports =
higher prices for nearly everything
To the best of my understanding the weak dollar is not reflecting deflation expectations. The weak dollar is more reflective of growth/inflation expectations and is part of what gets people banging blunt objects against their heads...since the answers to the questions where is the growth and is it sustainable are nowhere and no.
In a macro sense investors are willing to sell dollars for "risk" currencies and assets. If one expects deflation then one would be more worried about return OF their capital as opposed to return ON their capital, and consequently would put on a "flight to safety" trade that includes selling risk assets and buying the dollar.
Thanks for the answers. So I guess the expectations might be deflation in the near term, with inflation looming out there somewhere.
I've been afraid to go to cash in the event that it would be rapidly losing purchasing power, but I just gave up the prediction game and pulled back mostly into cash today. For me, it's time to just sit it out until Sept. If I lose another 1% more on the upside, so be it.
Be mindful that at least in historical examples (US 1870's and 1930's and Japan since 1990) deflation rules for several years and can conceivably go on for decades. But inflation scares can get people to take opposite trades intermittently. These are cyclical bulls in secular bear markets.
Deflation WILL win out over this re-flation trade, but when exactly that reversal will come is the trillion dollar question.
Tyler, I know you have worked hard for the past 6 months building Zero Hedge. Clearly your passion is for a clean market. Why don't you offer not to just help the SEC, but offer to work for them as a special investigator. Perhaps you can offer your services to Schumer. Listening to Mary Shapiro yesterday, clearly these lifetime SEC employees are in over their heads.
I'm not Tyler. But this is an important pt you bring
up.
You have to understand that the SEC and other regulatory
institutions exist to further the interest of
private industry. It's called regulatory capture.
When was the last time you got a job by criticizing
a potential employer? And not just criticize but also
accuse them of blatant malfeasance and corruption?
(even though its all true).
Agreed. We need to have a lot of scared congresscritters willing to clean house to keep their jobs.
I would like to see them negative. In this case they could pay GS and the others publicly... But its their own money!
They are already paying them - via reserve deposit interest.
I think you have to decouple the theory of interest rates and inflation. Even if inflation hit big time in Q3 Ben will not raise rates, too risky politically. Not only that but the dollars decline will certainly feel like inflation. If gold is at 960 an ounce now with deflation, then I can't wait for even normalcy to come back because it will be to da moon then.
Clicked on the blonde. I like the way she called me "Lord".
I find it very hard to believe that the type of recovery the g-shooters are talking about comes without inflation. I don't believe you'll have any recovery that the consumer will participate in so I'm not worries about inflation in the short-term. But the g-shooters think you can have both.
THE MORTGAGE MARKET'S TICKING TIME BOMB
http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2009/08/mortgage-markets-ticking-time-bo...
Wasn't she demoted last year? Guess they can parade her around now that the bull is back